Stats

1. Current FTK close27.33>SMA50 26.8234 supplies only a trend condition; 27.33<prior20high35.83 fails completedbreakout. Frozen rule requires BOTH, not either. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. InternationalH2>40m forecast andAramco's activeJafurahproject are positive demand indicators, but do not identifyFTK's actualprice/volume orcash receipts. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm ; https://india.aramco.com/en/news-media/news/2026/aramco-announces-second-quarter-and-half-year-2026-results . 3. FTKquarterlycashbridge Q1FCF-.981m/Q2-6.838m andcustomercredit settlement putcashcapture atodds with headlineprofits; prospectivepositiveFCF plusretainedmargins would strengthenfundamentals. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm . 4. Do notfitnewRSI/volatilityfilters or buyananticipatedbreakout. All12costedvariantsnegative; technicalhistory,currententry andvaluation allreject. This is evidenceagainsttestedentry, not entirebusiness or allpossiblefuturestrategies.

CLI run node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols FTK --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days2080 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30 (actual invocation uses spaces between flag/value) returned+13.7774%,DD49.9074%,N66/win33.3333%. It usesIEX/noexplicitadjustment orcosts andisnotindependentholdout; cannotoverride negativeSIPresults. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Fixed10/20/40sensitivity usesSIPadjustmentall,2020warmup,train2021-24/holdout2025-Sep11'26,fees1bp/slip5or15; all12negative. Correctopen/closemarks supersede earlierDDonly. L10trainingDD86.7031/87.1476,holdout46.9088/47.8559; L40training59.3906/60.6103,holdout31.7072/32.8585. L10sample24train/15holdout each1unfinished; L40N16/11flat; unchangedreturns in2847-50/2855-58. No favorablelookbackselection orstrategyadoption. CLI sample66unadjustedtradehistory andSIPcostedsamples answerdifferentquestions.

Supersedes drawdown only in primary analyses2851-2854; retains frozen2531 rule, samples, fills and returns. Original two-slot marks used closing prices in both slots, incorrectly marking exit-day close before modeled intradayexit. Corrected vectorbt price marks alternate actual open/close, while entry occurs slot0 and exit slot1; open/close marked drawdown is not full intraday worstcase. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . L20closebreakout+SMA50, nextopen,2ADRstop/3Rtarget,40sessions,1bpfees and15bpslip/side,2020warmup,2025-01-01 to2026-09-11. 14 completed/0 open; stopfirst ambiguousbar, gapopenexits, entrydayexits retained; compoundedcashreturn reconciliationpassed. Still rejects trading; 15min and+2R management absent. All12sensitivityrevisedDDtable in latest observation; no parameterretuning.

Supersedes drawdown only in primary analyses2851-2854; retains frozen2531 rule, samples, fills and returns. Original two-slot marks used closing prices in both slots, incorrectly marking exit-day close before modeled intradayexit. Corrected vectorbt price marks alternate actual open/close, while entry occurs slot0 and exit slot1; open/close marked drawdown is not full intraday worstcase. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . L20closebreakout+SMA50, nextopen,2ADRstop/3Rtarget,40sessions,1bpfees and5bpslip/side,2020warmup,2025-01-01 to2026-09-11. 14 completed/0 open; stopfirst ambiguousbar, gapopenexits, entrydayexits retained; compoundedcashreturn reconciliationpassed. Still rejects trading; 15min and+2R management absent. All12sensitivityrevisedDDtable in latest observation; no parameterretuning.

Supersedes drawdown only in primary analyses2851-2854; retains frozen2531 rule, samples, fills and returns. Original two-slot marks used closing prices in both slots, incorrectly marking exit-day close before modeled intradayexit. Corrected vectorbt price marks alternate actual open/close, while entry occurs slot0 and exit slot1; open/close marked drawdown is not full intraday worstcase. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . L20closebreakout+SMA50, nextopen,2ADRstop/3Rtarget,40sessions,1bpfees and15bpslip/side,2020warmup,2021-01-01 to2024-12-31. 26 completed/0 open; stopfirst ambiguousbar, gapopenexits, entrydayexits retained; compoundedcashreturn reconciliationpassed. Still rejects trading; 15min and+2R management absent. All12sensitivityrevisedDDtable in latest observation; no parameterretuning.

Supersedes drawdown only in primary analyses2851-2854; retains frozen2531 rule, samples, fills and returns. Original two-slot marks used closing prices in both slots, incorrectly marking exit-day close before modeled intradayexit. Corrected vectorbt price marks alternate actual open/close, while entry occurs slot0 and exit slot1; open/close marked drawdown is not full intraday worstcase. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . L20closebreakout+SMA50, nextopen,2ADRstop/3Rtarget,40sessions,1bpfees and5bpslip/side,2020warmup,2021-01-01 to2024-12-31. 26 completed/0 open; stopfirst ambiguousbar, gapopenexits, entrydayexits retained; compoundedcashreturn reconciliationpassed. Still rejects trading; 15min and+2R management absent. All12sensitivityrevisedDDtable in latest observation; no parameterretuning.

Premises and sources: AramcoFeb26'26 confirmsJafurahstartedDec2025 and2030salesgas2bscfdtarget; Aug4reportsphase1steady/phase2constructionfor2027 https://india.aramco.com/en/news-media/news/2026/aramco-announces-second-quarter-and-half-year-2026-results . FTKSep9presentation calls itselfprimaryfluidchemistrysupplier and planssupplythroughmid2027, but no exclusivecontract/paymentterms https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm . SNFSaudia localwarehouse/directsupply since2017 providesan alternative infrastructure example, not proofinterchangeablequalification orFTKloss https://www.snf.com/locations/sa/ . These are3economicoriginfamilies;ProFracandFTKnotindependent. First order: unconventional development creates demand for chemistry and reliablegas conditioning. Operators may capture production/fuel savings; FTK's unnamed fieldcase3.1-5.5mannualvalue/40MW and6-10xcustomerROI is promotionalbenefit, NOTFTKcashmargin. No actual shortage/allocationnotice ordeliveredtonnagefound. Second order: FTKmust financeinventory/logistics andreceivables; rawmaterialsuppliers mayretaincostincreases whilecustomersretain payment terms. UniformH2sales40mover184days, extra30days collectiondelay ties6.522m;60days13.043m. Sixmonthsinterest on firstamountat8.75%=.285m, not entirecashcost. A10%costincrease onQ2SupplierA23.624m spend withoutpass-through wouldcost2.362m (78.75%of3mguideincrease); hypotheticalstress, notforecast. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm . These scenarios showliquiditysensitivity, not that Saudi receivablesarelate. Third order: collected high-margin volume couldreleasecash andfundrepeatqualification; prolongedcollections/costpressure couldincreaseABLdependence ordilution. Customer may bringalternatives orinternalcapability, limitingpricecapture; conversely proprietarydata integrationscouldstrengthenstickiness. ProFracrefinance71mJuly1availability andexpectedQ3pricingimprovement couldimproveFTKcollections, so financialstrainnotone-way. Contradictions resolved: generalmultisourcing vs sole-sourceVerax concernsdifferentcomponents; >40mH2forecastvs10.6mQ2concernsdifferentperiods; primarysupplier doesnotmeanexclusive; risingprofitvsfallingcashreflectsworkingcapital/noncashsettlements. PuertoRico400mpotentialbacklog excluded: Aug18issuer reportsworkhalt https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000082/ftk-20260817.htm . No assumptionSep9chemistryraise restartsproject. Current subjective confidence35% in a durable incremental cash-pricing moat (not calibrated or a recorded prior). Prospectively raise20points if subsequentquarteractualpositiveFCF,acceptedinternationalvolume andmaintainedmargins arrive together; lower15points ifwrite-offs/materialcostabsorptionappear. Neitherchange rescuesfailedstockrule. Stopcollecting because furtherreformulationsrepeatedissuerclaims/genericportals; privatecontractscope,capacitytonnes andinvoiceagingremaingaps.

Question: does international chemistry growth make FTK a bottleneck owner, or a financier of customers and inventory? Start: supply170.20 cash, no lots. Goal: own an affordable supplier whose retained cash supports an asymmetric price payoff. Binding constraint: demonstrable net economics and a valid entry, not the funding shortfall. 1. Sep9 issuer raises FY26 revenue midpoint345→365m and EBITDA49→52m: incremental15% margin is a guidance bridge, NOT a disclosed Saudi contract margin. H2international>40m versusH1 12.6m implies >217.46% growth, >20m/quarter versus Q2 10.6m. https://ir.flotekind.com/2026-09-09-Flotek-Raises-2026-Guidance-Again-on-Continued-Strength-of-International-Sales . Counterexample: this could be profitable volume rather than higher unit pricing; no prices/tonnes/contract terms recovered. 2. H1NI14.617m but OCF-6.580m and cashcapex1.239m givesFCF-7.819m. Q1OCF.021m meansQ2OCF-6.601m despiteNI9.953m; not merely averaging one weak early quarter. Working capital used35.8m. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm ; Q1 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000047/ftk-20260331.htm . Counterexample: planned inventory for growing H2 shipments may release cash later; negative cash does not prove bad debt. 3. ProFrac63.8%H1sales/70.711mAR,61%beneficialownership. Prior19.7m net settlement delivered7.2mcash and12.5mequipmentcredits: cash36.55%, not a cash take-or-pay guarantee. ExternalAR43.415m (+127.98%fromDec) againstH1external sales+23.76%YoY is concerning but mismatched stock/flow growth, NOT measured deterioration in invoice aging. Quarter-endAR/Q2sales*91 gives91.4days external/114.61related, distorted by shortfalls/mix. Counterexample: related share fell74.1%Q1→56.5%Q2 and shortfall revenue fell15.2m→3.9mH1, showing genuine purchases/diversification. Same10Q. 4. Annual risk factors disclose sole-source Verax components, raw input cost pass-through uncertainty and direct wholesalers; Q2supplierA33.7%spend. ThreeUS manufacturing sites andDubai warehouse do not establish scarce qualified capacity. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000020/ftk-20251231.htm . Counterexample: patents/qualification and field performance may protect portions of business even when bulk chemistry competition is strong. 5. At27.33, basic marketcap989.904m plus50.4mdebt less4.402mcash yieldsEV1035.902m/52mEBITDA=19.92x. Including2.18414m unexercised warrants and4.5m proceeds gives20.98x, excluding other futureSBC; the6m warrant exercisedMarch13 is already in36.220429m shares. Lease-inclusive basicEV1042.377m; balance-sheet vintageJune30,sharesAug3. 3Rprice39.087 requires73.088mEBITDA at20x or28.11x52m. Subjective bear40mx12/base52mx18/bull65mx22 gives11.98/24.57/38.21 per share; these are scenario assumptions, not fair-value forecasts. Conclusion: valid inference is to reject the scarcity-rent BUY thesis today and keep a cash-conversion watch; invalid inference would be certain insolvency or a profitable short. Soundness limited by absent Saudi invoice/contract detail and consolidated reporting. AffiliatedProFrac reports refinancing and Q3fracpricing improvement, countering default assumptions: https://ir.pfholdingscorp.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001104659-26-091463/tm2622356d1_ex99-1.htm .

1. Sep11 completed SIP close27.33, prior20closing high35.83, SMA50 26.8234: above trend but no breakout. ADR20 1.95953/ATR20 2.05253, realizedvol60 103.033% annualized, meanvolume20 700525.6. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . 2. Illustrative2ADRstop23.41094 and3Rtarget39.08718 imply14.3398%loss/43.0193%gain before costs; neither is an order or established fundamental invalidation level. Reference target requires73.0876m EBITDA at20x or28.1106x current52m guide, given36.220429mshares and45.998mnetdebt. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm and Sep9 guidance. 3. Six whole shares would cost163.98 and reference stop risk23.51436 (<3%account25.5297), but affordability cannot override Kelly0 and failed signal; full-loss gap would exceed risk budget. 4. No buy-limit can express a future completed-close signal. No actual15min management validation done for already-rejected rule. No holdings, Rgain/holdingage N/A. Retain research watch, no orders.

1. Reuse frozenL20 training26 closed net returns only, excluding holdout; NumPy seed91204,30000 IID bootstrap paths of20 full-notional trades. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. Terminal return P5/P50/P95=-90.324/-78.350/-41.552%, loss frequency99.1967%, path drawdown>20% in100%. This is a conditional resampling experiment, NOT market odds, ignores serial dependence/regime changes and does not simulate actual account at venue cap. 3. Observed p4/26=.153846, mean win .216567, mean loss .115744; halfKelly notional fraction=max(0,.5*(p/loss-(1-p)/win))=0. Full dollar=min170.20fund,212.7475venue,850.99*f=0; quarter probe=0. Do not confuse notional Kelly with fraction of equity lost at stop. 4. Separate subjective valuation scenarios at probabilities30/45/25%, not fitted probabilities, give weighted price return-11.4357%; no replacement positive odds invented. Rejection justified by failed rule and entry as well; MonteCarlo precision does not make future calibration reliable.

1. SIP daily adjusted bars through Sep11, FTK/SPY1682 dates since2020, no missing FTK dates relative to SPY and valid positive OHLC; ACDC1086 since listing. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. OLS FTK daily simple returns against SPY over60 sessions preceding Sep9 gives beta2.723834, alpha .000094554 daily. Sep9 FTK+14.402954% vs SPY-.464776% leaves residual+15.659472pp. This is descriptive evidence the guidance day already moved price, not causal identification or proof fully priced. 3. Last60 daily correlations FTK/ACDC .406972, FTK/SPY .320440; relationships vary by regime. 4. query_trades fund=supply returns only FRO/STNG, both operator liquidations: 2wins, prior measured mean2.2787%, exact95%binomial lower15.811%. They are neither FTK observations nor clean stop/target trials; no reliable loss/slippage estimate. 5. Frozen20day FTK training26 trades mean-6.461891%, bootstrap95%mean[-10.889605,-1.158376]%. Avoid new filters designed around Sep9 and retain rejection. Selection/history limits mean these results do not establish short-sale edge.

Premises: (1) prior completed close exceeds prior 40-day closing high and SMA50; (2) entry next open, stop entry-2 previous ADR20, target+6ADR, exit after40sessions; (3) 1bp fees and 15bp slippage each side, 2020warmup, training2021-24 and separately initialized holdout2025-Sep11'26. PrimaryL20 frozen before results;10/40 sensitivity cannot replace it. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Vectorbt long-only full-cash portfolio uses two ordered events/day to retain entry-day exits, gap exits at open, ambiguous high/low stopfirst. Closed net returns include entry fees in denominator; flat portfolio compounded-return reconciliation passed. 11 closed trades; 0 unfinished paths marked at cutoff excluded from closed winrate/MonteCarlo; 0 entry-day exits. Conclusion reject: negative geometric return. Buyhold 185.580% descriptive comparator. Not an event-specific backtest, no parameter selection from holdout, no actual15min exits or +2R quarter/trailing implementation. FTK selected retrospectively and corporate/regime changes weaken transferability.

Premises: (1) prior completed close exceeds prior 40-day closing high and SMA50; (2) entry next open, stop entry-2 previous ADR20, target+6ADR, exit after40sessions; (3) 1bp fees and 5bp slippage each side, 2020warmup, training2021-24 and separately initialized holdout2025-Sep11'26. PrimaryL20 frozen before results;10/40 sensitivity cannot replace it. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Vectorbt long-only full-cash portfolio uses two ordered events/day to retain entry-day exits, gap exits at open, ambiguous high/low stopfirst. Closed net returns include entry fees in denominator; flat portfolio compounded-return reconciliation passed. 11 closed trades; 0 unfinished paths marked at cutoff excluded from closed winrate/MonteCarlo; 0 entry-day exits. Conclusion reject: negative geometric return. Buyhold 185.580% descriptive comparator. Not an event-specific backtest, no parameter selection from holdout, no actual15min exits or +2R quarter/trailing implementation. FTK selected retrospectively and corporate/regime changes weaken transferability.

Premises: (1) prior completed close exceeds prior 40-day closing high and SMA50; (2) entry next open, stop entry-2 previous ADR20, target+6ADR, exit after40sessions; (3) 1bp fees and 15bp slippage each side, 2020warmup, training2021-24 and separately initialized holdout2025-Sep11'26. PrimaryL20 frozen before results;10/40 sensitivity cannot replace it. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Vectorbt long-only full-cash portfolio uses two ordered events/day to retain entry-day exits, gap exits at open, ambiguous high/low stopfirst. Closed net returns include entry fees in denominator; flat portfolio compounded-return reconciliation passed. 16 closed trades; 0 unfinished paths marked at cutoff excluded from closed winrate/MonteCarlo; 2 entry-day exits. Conclusion reject: negative geometric return. Buyhold -25.779% descriptive comparator. Not an event-specific backtest, no parameter selection from holdout, no actual15min exits or +2R quarter/trailing implementation. FTK selected retrospectively and corporate/regime changes weaken transferability.

Premises: (1) prior completed close exceeds prior 40-day closing high and SMA50; (2) entry next open, stop entry-2 previous ADR20, target+6ADR, exit after40sessions; (3) 1bp fees and 5bp slippage each side, 2020warmup, training2021-24 and separately initialized holdout2025-Sep11'26. PrimaryL20 frozen before results;10/40 sensitivity cannot replace it. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Vectorbt long-only full-cash portfolio uses two ordered events/day to retain entry-day exits, gap exits at open, ambiguous high/low stopfirst. Closed net returns include entry fees in denominator; flat portfolio compounded-return reconciliation passed. 16 closed trades; 0 unfinished paths marked at cutoff excluded from closed winrate/MonteCarlo; 2 entry-day exits. Conclusion reject: negative geometric return. Buyhold -25.779% descriptive comparator. Not an event-specific backtest, no parameter selection from holdout, no actual15min exits or +2R quarter/trailing implementation. FTK selected retrospectively and corporate/regime changes weaken transferability.

Premises: (1) prior completed close exceeds prior 20-day closing high and SMA50; (2) entry next open, stop entry-2 previous ADR20, target+6ADR, exit after40sessions; (3) 1bp fees and 15bp slippage each side, 2020warmup, training2021-24 and separately initialized holdout2025-Sep11'26. PrimaryL20 frozen before results;10/40 sensitivity cannot replace it. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Vectorbt long-only full-cash portfolio uses two ordered events/day to retain entry-day exits, gap exits at open, ambiguous high/low stopfirst. Closed net returns include entry fees in denominator; flat portfolio compounded-return reconciliation passed. 14 closed trades; 0 unfinished paths marked at cutoff excluded from closed winrate/MonteCarlo; 1 entry-day exits. Conclusion reject: negative geometric return. Buyhold 185.580% descriptive comparator. Not an event-specific backtest, no parameter selection from holdout, no actual15min exits or +2R quarter/trailing implementation. FTK selected retrospectively and corporate/regime changes weaken transferability.

Premises: (1) prior completed close exceeds prior 20-day closing high and SMA50; (2) entry next open, stop entry-2 previous ADR20, target+6ADR, exit after40sessions; (3) 1bp fees and 5bp slippage each side, 2020warmup, training2021-24 and separately initialized holdout2025-Sep11'26. PrimaryL20 frozen before results;10/40 sensitivity cannot replace it. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Vectorbt long-only full-cash portfolio uses two ordered events/day to retain entry-day exits, gap exits at open, ambiguous high/low stopfirst. Closed net returns include entry fees in denominator; flat portfolio compounded-return reconciliation passed. 14 closed trades; 0 unfinished paths marked at cutoff excluded from closed winrate/MonteCarlo; 1 entry-day exits. Conclusion reject: negative geometric return. Buyhold 185.580% descriptive comparator. Not an event-specific backtest, no parameter selection from holdout, no actual15min exits or +2R quarter/trailing implementation. FTK selected retrospectively and corporate/regime changes weaken transferability.

Premises: (1) prior completed close exceeds prior 20-day closing high and SMA50; (2) entry next open, stop entry-2 previous ADR20, target+6ADR, exit after40sessions; (3) 1bp fees and 15bp slippage each side, 2020warmup, training2021-24 and separately initialized holdout2025-Sep11'26. PrimaryL20 frozen before results;10/40 sensitivity cannot replace it. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Vectorbt long-only full-cash portfolio uses two ordered events/day to retain entry-day exits, gap exits at open, ambiguous high/low stopfirst. Closed net returns include entry fees in denominator; flat portfolio compounded-return reconciliation passed. 26 closed trades; 0 unfinished paths marked at cutoff excluded from closed winrate/MonteCarlo; 2 entry-day exits. Conclusion reject: negative geometric return. Buyhold -25.779% descriptive comparator. Not an event-specific backtest, no parameter selection from holdout, no actual15min exits or +2R quarter/trailing implementation. FTK selected retrospectively and corporate/regime changes weaken transferability.

Premises: (1) prior completed close exceeds prior 20-day closing high and SMA50; (2) entry next open, stop entry-2 previous ADR20, target+6ADR, exit after40sessions; (3) 1bp fees and 5bp slippage each side, 2020warmup, training2021-24 and separately initialized holdout2025-Sep11'26. PrimaryL20 frozen before results;10/40 sensitivity cannot replace it. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Vectorbt long-only full-cash portfolio uses two ordered events/day to retain entry-day exits, gap exits at open, ambiguous high/low stopfirst. Closed net returns include entry fees in denominator; flat portfolio compounded-return reconciliation passed. 26 closed trades; 0 unfinished paths marked at cutoff excluded from closed winrate/MonteCarlo; 2 entry-day exits. Conclusion reject: negative geometric return. Buyhold -25.779% descriptive comparator. Not an event-specific backtest, no parameter selection from holdout, no actual15min exits or +2R quarter/trailing implementation. FTK selected retrospectively and corporate/regime changes weaken transferability.

Premises: (1) prior completed close exceeds prior 10-day closing high and SMA50; (2) entry next open, stop entry-2 previous ADR20, target+6ADR, exit after40sessions; (3) 1bp fees and 15bp slippage each side, 2020warmup, training2021-24 and separately initialized holdout2025-Sep11'26. PrimaryL20 frozen before results;10/40 sensitivity cannot replace it. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Vectorbt long-only full-cash portfolio uses two ordered events/day to retain entry-day exits, gap exits at open, ambiguous high/low stopfirst. Closed net returns include entry fees in denominator; flat portfolio compounded-return reconciliation passed. 15 closed trades; 1 unfinished paths marked at cutoff excluded from closed winrate/MonteCarlo; 1 entry-day exits. Conclusion reject: negative geometric return. Buyhold 185.580% descriptive comparator. Not an event-specific backtest, no parameter selection from holdout, no actual15min exits or +2R quarter/trailing implementation. FTK selected retrospectively and corporate/regime changes weaken transferability.

Premises: (1) prior completed close exceeds prior 10-day closing high and SMA50; (2) entry next open, stop entry-2 previous ADR20, target+6ADR, exit after40sessions; (3) 1bp fees and 5bp slippage each side, 2020warmup, training2021-24 and separately initialized holdout2025-Sep11'26. PrimaryL20 frozen before results;10/40 sensitivity cannot replace it. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Vectorbt long-only full-cash portfolio uses two ordered events/day to retain entry-day exits, gap exits at open, ambiguous high/low stopfirst. Closed net returns include entry fees in denominator; flat portfolio compounded-return reconciliation passed. 15 closed trades; 1 unfinished paths marked at cutoff excluded from closed winrate/MonteCarlo; 1 entry-day exits. Conclusion reject: negative geometric return. Buyhold 185.580% descriptive comparator. Not an event-specific backtest, no parameter selection from holdout, no actual15min exits or +2R quarter/trailing implementation. FTK selected retrospectively and corporate/regime changes weaken transferability.

Premises: (1) prior completed close exceeds prior 10-day closing high and SMA50; (2) entry next open, stop entry-2 previous ADR20, target+6ADR, exit after40sessions; (3) 1bp fees and 15bp slippage each side, 2020warmup, training2021-24 and separately initialized holdout2025-Sep11'26. PrimaryL20 frozen before results;10/40 sensitivity cannot replace it. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Vectorbt long-only full-cash portfolio uses two ordered events/day to retain entry-day exits, gap exits at open, ambiguous high/low stopfirst. Closed net returns include entry fees in denominator; flat portfolio compounded-return reconciliation passed. 24 closed trades; 1 unfinished paths marked at cutoff excluded from closed winrate/MonteCarlo; 2 entry-day exits. Conclusion reject: negative geometric return. Buyhold -25.779% descriptive comparator. Not an event-specific backtest, no parameter selection from holdout, no actual15min exits or +2R quarter/trailing implementation. FTK selected retrospectively and corporate/regime changes weaken transferability.

Premises: (1) prior completed close exceeds prior 10-day closing high and SMA50; (2) entry next open, stop entry-2 previous ADR20, target+6ADR, exit after40sessions; (3) 1bp fees and 5bp slippage each side, 2020warmup, training2021-24 and separately initialized holdout2025-Sep11'26. PrimaryL20 frozen before results;10/40 sensitivity cannot replace it. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Vectorbt long-only full-cash portfolio uses two ordered events/day to retain entry-day exits, gap exits at open, ambiguous high/low stopfirst. Closed net returns include entry fees in denominator; flat portfolio compounded-return reconciliation passed. 24 closed trades; 1 unfinished paths marked at cutoff excluded from closed winrate/MonteCarlo; 2 entry-day exits. Conclusion reject: negative geometric return. Buyhold -25.779% descriptive comparator. Not an event-specific backtest, no parameter selection from holdout, no actual15min exits or +2R quarter/trailing implementation. FTK selected retrospectively and corporate/regime changes weaken transferability.

1. Start state supply278.67cash, account850.99, noopen/pendingpositions per context/tradequery; goal affordablebottleneckcashcapture withasymmetry. Noheldthesis, Rgain/age/stopreset notapplicable. 2. HWM2758/2759daily3Rproxy trains+62.58%,holdout+18.47%N14/stress+15.20, but current229.61 fails292.65breakout and272.24trend. LPG55.18<55.20alsofalse. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Buy-limits cannot anticipate completed-close rules. 3. FRO/STNGsignals trueinSIP but old36/4562Rholdout doesnotvalidatecurrent3R/15min/cashdividendexecution. NewFRO3.41declareddistribution exceeds2ADR; monitor287 replacesstale11 https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . This is a concrete executionconstraint, not a claimthat futuretankercashisnegative. 4. Fundamental2770/2771 andconsequences2772(citationcorrectionnote2462) attackcustomerintegration,unpaidcongestion,qualificationandcashcapture. HWMGE/CPP competitionmodelisprospective; positivehistoricaltestnotproofnewregime. No automaticGEbuy from11.75bnacquisition. 5. Due41and284resolved;102/103preserved;new29402UTC handoff. Job218cancelled/replaced226 afterlocaltest to repairSIPdelay/addHWM/updateFRO. RemoteactualENDstillpending atlastcheck;job200covers01/02UTCwith2runsleft. Nooff-hoursorder queued. 6. Conclusion noorders, noexitchanges, noFUNDproposal: allresearch fits supply. Bindingconstraint validentry+implementablepayoff, not349.01fundingshortfall. Strongcounterargument HWMpositivecostedhistorymeritsretainingwatch; quarterprobe53.19 remainsconditional, notroundedto229.61share. Soundness bounded byselectednames, adjusted dailyfills, no15minmanagementvalidation, unavailablewebcastaudio andunknowncurrentpaidnetbacks. Cash is chosen for these failedcurrentgates, notproofwholemarketlacksedge. Endjournal protectedwithin39minplan/45hardlimit.

1. Trendalone is inadequate: LPGaboveSMA50butbelowprior20high;HWMfailsboth. FRO/STNGSIPbreakoutsignals share60daycorr.778;LPG/FRO.690, LPG/STNG.646. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. HWM60dayannualizedvol37.998%includesSep8discontinuity; volatilityandcorrelationarewindowdependent, notnewfiltertunedafterholdout. 3. Sep11BLSAugCPIheadline+.4MoM/core+.3,energy+2.1/gasoline+3.9;realhourly-.1 butrealweekly+.2. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm ; https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm . Higherenergyconsumerpricescanbeconsistentwithstrongcarrierreceiptsandweakerenddemand; theydo notidentifywhocapturesrent. No preregisteredconsensus, so no surprisenumber orcausalexplanationofSPY+.8524%. 4. Keepfrozenentryandcostgates; no newRSI/MACD/lowvolfilteroranticipatorybuy. AllmacroreleaseperiodsareAugust, stocksignalsSeptember11.