Stats

Startstateprecommissioning;goalpaidprofitableindustrialgas;bindingconstraintcommissioningandcarboncreditmonetization, notspotheliumquote. 1. Apr27contract fixes285USD/Mcf forsubstantiallyallproduction, max14.4MMcf/yr,5years,initialCPIescalationMar2028. Source https://ir.bigskyindustrialinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/us-energy-corp-signs-five-year-helium-offtake-agreement . 2. Aug11nameplate14MMcf implies3.99m/year(.3325m/month)or4.104m atcontractceilingbeforeproductioncost. AnnualizingQ2cashG&A1.8m gives7.2m; heliumcovers55.42%beforeanyproductionexpense. G&Arunrateisillustrative, notforecast. Source https://ir.bigskyindustrialinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/big-sky-industrial-inc-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-and . 3. H1OCF-3.252m-capex9.700mindustrial-.303mO&G=-13.255mFCF;Aug4liquidity16.4m includes11.5mcredit, notcash. Filing https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/101594/000143774926026861/bsin20260613_10q.htm explicitlywarnsfixedpricecapsupsideandEPCdelays. Prior10K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/101594/000143774926008057/useg20251231_10k.htm plant/power/gatheringconstructionrisksread. 4. Issuer130m45Qover12yr=>10.833m/yeararithmeticpotential, notrecognizedcash, approvalorvaluation. Counterexampleto rejection:successfulcarboncreditsandlowerG&Acouldmakeplantprofitable. Thusrejectsimpleheliumscarcityequitythesis,retaincommissioningwatch. Unidentifiedbuyerlikelycapturesincrementalresalespreadifspotrises, butbuyeridentityandnetmarginsunknown; donotbuyLIN/APDbysupposition. NoBSINpriceentrybacktestbecausefundamentaltransmissionalreadyfails; noorders.

1. IssuerQ2Aug28 OCF579.487m minus330.825mcapex leaves248.662m;H1aftercapex308.116m. Saleproceeds965.880mH1arecapitalrecycling. 2. Sep11combineddistribution3.41/share=759.144m on222.623mshares,6.9295%of49.21; notfreeinvestmentreturn. 3. Q3bookedTCE156900/117400/81000 with86/79/70%coverage standswellabovecashbreakeven23800/25700/22200, butballastdayslowerquarterresult. Sources https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/59431810-8e9c-4a39-b3d0-cc2dd63da402 and https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . 4. 20F https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/913290/000162828026021774/fro-20251231.htm disclosesChina6Hengli/3Dalian1.224bnnewbuilds,deliveryweightedcash,and477.9mbunkerpaidTFGMarine. Thesearecashandexecutiondependencies,notprovenuniquesuppliercontrol. 5. At49.21P/Q2EPSannualized=4.714x versus3.472xJun30book; historicalbooknotvesselNAV. A3Rpricebarrieraround57.31cannotbevalidatedby mechanicallyassigning5.49xpeakEPS. Valid conditional inference: persistentpaidnetTCEcouldsupportupside. Soundness gap: unknownduration,ballastandassetvalues. Strongcounterexample:warrestrictionsreducecargoavailabilitywhileinsurance/costsrisefasterthanpaidrates. Watch survives; nofundamentalfairvaluepointorbuy.

Start and finish supply170.20cash/account850.99; query_trades returnedonlytwoalreadyclosedlots, noholdings orpending supplyorders. Goal is affordable bottleneckpricingpower with asymmetry; currentbindingconstraint is implementation, not the349.01funding shortfall. 1. New FRO3Rstudy2920-23 is positive: training48.932%/holdout99.823%N17+1open, stress92.950%; managedholdout58.138%N18/stress52.394. L40holdout-5.882% warns sensitivity. These are chronological heldout daily dividend-adjusted proxies, not execution proof. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. FROretainedcashthesis supported by issuerbookings andprofits;declared3.41distribution createsrawstopproblem https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . Correctedsim2946 changesexdaystopincidence41.96%static to6.10%wealthadjusted under assumed5dayblocks—not a stockreturnforecast. Exactvenueentitlement,15minmanagement/trailing and fundamental fullypricedtarget remaingaps. 3. Finalgap-budgetedsizing2944 permits85.099full,21.27475quarterprobe,below49.21oneFROshare; fractionalorderonlyRTH. Do notroundup orqueueentrybeforeimplementation. STNGfixedholdout-3.983%/stress-6.166%,managedstress-.639% retainsrejection despitepositive training. 4. HWM/LPG/FTK/CCJcurrentlyfailfrozenentry;SWKSpricebreakoutdoesnotestablishnewRFbottleneckcash. Widerpower/metals/helium/USDAjobsremain; broadwholemarketexhaustiveness notclaimed. 5. Resolved318withactual23604:16END;06:16receiptpendingatcheck. TestednewSIPcollector243 replaces226 afterlocalEND; remotecompletionunverified. New32308UTC handoff;preserve287FROSep17/313FTKABL/102tariff/103Canal. 6. Noorders,noexitchanges,noFUNDproposal. Strongcounterargument is FRO's positive netproxy; it earns implementationpriority, not rejection merelybecauseCIcrosseszero. Next work is rawdividend/15min execution and targetcashbridge, not anotherlookbacksearch. Lessons837-839 and reproducibility2593-2604 stored. Allworkfits supply.

1. Own supply record has two operator-liquidation winners, combinedstockPnL4.977287,mean2.278710%;100%wins cannot estimate average losses or execution advantage. A naive exact95%binomiallower15.8114% already wide; correlated shipping lots further weaken independence. Source venue query_trades fund=supply, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev . 2. FROfixed training33closedmean1.87277%,10000IIDbootstrap95%CI[-1.97206,6.13580];test17mean4.65443%CI[-1.35232,10.72225]. Positive realizedgeometricreturns supportwatch despite uncertain mean. Managedholdout18mean2.97157%CI[-2.24030,8.46648]. STNGfixedtest11mean-.34261%CI[-5.19766,5.84822]. No new sample from parameter sweep; trials share market periods. 3. Collection completed dailySIPall with prior2020warmup,2021-24training/2025-Sep11heldoutforthisrule. Testperiodalreadyseenforotherstrategies; selectedcurrenttankers creates selectionbias, not universe-wideedge. UnfinishedtradesmarkequitybutdonotenterclosedoutcomeCI. These distributions and currentcorr.777079 are descriptive, notwar-causal. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 4. Prior shifted from old2Rinconclusivewatch to provisional3RpositiveFROwatch; not to statisticalcertainty. A costed prospective15min/rawcashimplementation passing unchangedrules would strengthen it; weakcash/normalizingnetrates orprospectiveexecutionlosses weakenit. No preciseBayesianposterior claimed.

Supersedes2932figures. Audit found firstday started economic49.21 at priorclose while treating49.21 as entry; unowned firstovernightmovement entered payoff. Correct firstdayOHLC ratios relative to sampledopen so entryopen exactly49.21; subsequentday ratios remain priorclose-based. Other specification unchanged:20000paired40sessionpaths,5dayblocks2021-24,seed91206,2ADRstop3Rtarget,1bpfee5bpslip,3.41exsession5 deductedfromeconomicOHLC. Include dividend receivable only for priordayholders; not cashreinvestment. Staticrawstop:88.865%stop,10.53%target,.605%timeout,41.96%stoppedonexday,mean+.8081302%,median-.2303364%,win48.645%. Adjustbothlevelsby3.41onexday:66.105%stop,31.15%target,2.745%timeout,6.10%stoppedonexday,mean+1.5436493%,median-5.5940764%,win33.41%. Entitlement73.385%both. Directional mechanics finding survives; neither policy calibrated to currentevent stock expectancy. Levels adjusted is hypothetical, not a venueinstruction. Does not model15minchecks,trailing/partialmanagement,taxes, market-specific dividend repricing orcurrentwar regime. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; declaration https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . No orders.

Training net closed-trade outcomes from2920-27; no holdout fitting. Binary approximation b=average win/absolute average loss; halfKelly risk fraction=.5*max(0,p-(1-p)/b). Mapping to current stop-percent assumes one average historical loss corresponds to that prospective risk unit; no claim exact growth-optimal sizing. Full notional=min(fund170.20,position212.7475,halfKelly*850.99/currentrisk,3%equity/currentrisk,3%equity/30%gap)=85.099. Gap assumption30% is subjective, not a measured worst case; larger gaps still possible. Quarter probe21.27475, below one share for either tanker; do not round up to a full share because the account needs349.01. One quarter probe's 30%gap loss6.382425=.75%account. 20000IID20trade paths, seed91206, constantfraction85.099/850.99 rebalanced with future allocations ignored; 5%pertrade outcome replaced with min(original,-30%) stress is a sensitivity, not forecast. Exact fixed/managed inputs and P05/P50/P95/95thDD: [{"symbol":"STNG","managed":false,"trainingN":26,"p":0.46153846153846156,"avgwin_pct":18.695275670181577,"avgloss_pct":7.111644211680803,"b":2.628826065212146,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0.12835440279960536,"gap_stress_pct":30,"gap_budget_pct":3,"full_notional":85.099,"quarter_probe":21.27475,"whole_probe":0,"paths":20000,"horizon_trades":20,"p_loss_pct":7.625,"PnL_p05_p50_p95":[-11.385757553278578,80.4081455450203,193.47724097016433],"DD95_pct":6.1364220172558985,"stress_loss_pct":21.875,"stressDD95_pct":9.80049493827431},{"symbol":"STNG","managed":true,"trainingN":27,"p":0.4444444444444444,"avgwin_pct":16.852046788213258,"avgloss_pct":7.212904794472147,"b":2.3363744938278397,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0.10332956245744462,"gap_stress_pct":30,"gap_budget_pct":3,"full_notional":85.099,"quarter_probe":21.27475,"whole_probe":0,"paths":20000,"horizon_trades":20,"p_loss_pct":13.22,"PnL_p05_p50_p95":[-24.308019388991966,57.64536238639504,157.85314757831037],"DD95_pct":6.525196212787598,"stress_loss_pct":31.165,"stressDD95_pct":10.381679167648542}]. These final paths supersede precap26294-97; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Positive training Kelly does not override negative fixed holdout and managed stress holdout; eligible live size remains zero.

Training net closed-trade outcomes from2920-27; no holdout fitting. Binary approximation b=average win/absolute average loss; halfKelly risk fraction=.5*max(0,p-(1-p)/b). Mapping to current stop-percent assumes one average historical loss corresponds to that prospective risk unit; no claim exact growth-optimal sizing. Full notional=min(fund170.20,position212.7475,halfKelly*850.99/currentrisk,3%equity/currentrisk,3%equity/30%gap)=85.099. Gap assumption30% is subjective, not a measured worst case; larger gaps still possible. Quarter probe21.27475, below one share for either tanker; do not round up to a full share because the account needs349.01. One quarter probe's 30%gap loss6.382425=.75%account. 20000IID20trade paths, seed91206, constantfraction85.099/850.99 rebalanced with future allocations ignored; 5%pertrade outcome replaced with min(original,-30%) stress is a sensitivity, not forecast. Exact fixed/managed inputs and P05/P50/P95/95thDD: [{"symbol":"FRO","managed":false,"trainingN":33,"p":0.3333333333333333,"avgwin_pct":18.105222844836412,"avgloss_pct":6.2434623786051535,"b":2.8998689744457598,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0.05171894445206486,"gap_stress_pct":30,"gap_budget_pct":3,"full_notional":85.099,"quarter_probe":21.27475,"whole_probe":0,"paths":20000,"horizon_trades":20,"p_loss_pct":25.435000000000002,"PnL_p05_p50_p95":[-39.30526101917955,30.318214243403553,114.45264236866166],"DD95_pct":7.080746313178854,"stress_loss_pct":47.605,"stressDD95_pct":11.13627490102703},{"symbol":"FRO","managed":true,"trainingN":33,"p":0.42424242424242425,"avgwin_pct":12.283176512051064,"avgloss_pct":6.258099367749241,"b":1.962764697433811,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0.06545116641722587,"gap_stress_pct":30,"gap_budget_pct":3,"full_notional":85.099,"quarter_probe":21.27475,"whole_probe":0,"paths":20000,"horizon_trades":20,"p_loss_pct":26.035000000000004,"PnL_p05_p50_p95":[-36.190637397512376,25.580741501279697,99.49214229861506],"DD95_pct":6.336174871619391,"stress_loss_pct":50.665000000000006,"stressDD95_pct":10.60280966577072}]. These final paths supersede precap26294-97; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Positive training supports a candidate, but pending dividend/raw management and sub-share probe remain implementation tasks.

Command: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols FRO,STNG --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 2080 --stop-pct 10 --target-pct 30. CLI returned1426IEXbars and uses signal-driven exits as well as percentage stops/targets. No explicit execution costs or independent holdout. It is a diagnostic, not a replication of frozen SMA50/2ADR3R/40session SIP policy, and cannot adjudicate its validation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Both tools' results retained rather than selecting the positive implementation; method differences explain disagreement.

Command: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols FRO,STNG --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 2080 --stop-pct 10 --target-pct 30. CLI returned1426IEXbars and uses signal-driven exits as well as percentage stops/targets. No explicit execution costs or independent holdout. It is a diagnostic, not a replication of frozen SMA50/2ADR3R/40session SIP policy, and cannot adjudicate its validation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Both tools' results retained rather than selecting the positive implementation; method differences explain disagreement.

1. Both tankers pass conjunction breakout/SMA50;SPY764.29>SMA200712.0452 supplies marketcontext, notrequirement. FRO/STNG60logreturncorr.777079 implies commonshippingrisk; addingSTNGisnotindependenttaildiversification. 2. FROfixedruletrainingmean inSPYabove200regime+.8941%N25 versus+4.9311%N8below;holdout+5.1453%N14above versus+2.3635%N3below. Directionofregimeadvantagereverses. Managedtrainingabove+.0802%N25 versus+6.3820%N8below;holdoutabove+3.2246%N15. 3. STNGfixedholdoutabove-.5586%N10,below+1.8169%N1. N1doesnotlicenseabearmarketfilter. Allpartitions26300-01, indicators26165-72/correlations26195-26202. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 4. These are post-testdescriptivepartitions, notadditionalindependentvalidation; noRSI/MACD/volatilitythresholdoptimizedafterholdout. FROcurrentRV20 36.1031% vsRV60 45.6912%;windowchoiceandreturndefinitionmustremainexplicit. Changedregimecanmoveprobabilitiesbutdoesnotmake a falseentry true.

September11completedSIPalladjusted: FRO49.21>48.40prior20 and40.8458SMA50;STNG84.52>84.51 and77.9266. HWM229.61<292.65and272.2414;LPG55.18<55.20;CCJ96.68<107.36;FTK27.33<35.83;SWKS88.35>84.03/65.97428. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CurrentSIPsignal persists despite IEXSTNGfailure; do notswapfeeds. FROreference2ADRstop46.51089/3R57.30733;STNG80.51631/96.53107 are range-derived examples, NOT fundamental fullypriced targets. Neitherdefinesnewwhole-sharepriceorder. Fund170.20 buys max3FROor2STNG beforeotherconstraints; partial-quarter management ofsmallwholelotscreatesfractionalexitlimitations. Sep18FROdistribution3.41 changesrawstopcomparison, primary https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . No holdings, no Rprogress/holdingage/exitlevels to update. Exactvolumes,ADRvsATR,lookbacksandprices26165-72. HWM1620barsstartsApr2020aftercorporatestructurechange, otherseven1682; no claimallwarmupidentical. FrozenFRO3Rwatchnewlypositive; STNGholdoutfailure is separate. SWKSpricebreakoutalone doesnotestablish RFsupplypricingpower.

1. Question: does a known cash distribution change exits without equivalent business loss? 2. NumPy seed91206,20000paired40sessionOHLCpaths sampled in5dayblocks from2021-24 SIP adjustmentall; normalized each OHLC by priorclose. Start49.21 on illustrativeSep14, stop46.51089,target57.30733; no holdout returns used to calibrate. Deduct3.41 from all subsequent economicpricelevels on session5Sep18, entitlement only if still held from prior day; include receivable in totalpayoff, no reinvestment beforepayday. Issuer terms https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . 3. Compare unchanged rawlevels versus bothlevels reduced3.41 on exday. Gapopen exits, stopfirst ambiguousbar,1bpfees+5bpslip/side. Unchanged: stop87.78%,target11.48%,timeout.74%; adjusted:stop65.565%,target31.89%,timeout2.545%. Stop-on-ex37.865% versus4.78%. Mean wealthreturn+.96639/+1.69409%, but median-.30194/-5.59408% respectively; higher apparent raw-stop winrate47.415% vs34.035% reflects harvesting receivable/changedpayoff, not superior economicforecast. 4. This is paired mechanics simulation, NOT measured probability of Monday profits: stationary blocks ignore currentwarregime, market response to distributions, taxes, brokerageentitlement, partialmanagement and15minexecution. Rawstopcan force disposal for accounting mechanics. A level change preserving wealth differs from loosening a stop because red; no existingholding to adjust. Need explicit implementation beforeorder. Sourceprices https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Primary L20 remains fixed. L10/L40 are sensitivity only; no best-lookback selection after seeing holdout. Split-only excludes dividends and therefore is PRICE-only performance, not shareholder total return; changing adjustment also changes signal dates and exits. Same2ADRstop/3Rtarget/40sessions,1bpfees+5/15bpslip, vectorbt open/execution/close marks, train2021-24/test2025-Sep11. Results (return/DD/win/N; open marks excluded from win): [{"L":10,"adj":"all","start":"2021-01-01","slip":5,"return":173.0235627099403,"DD":36.405626540674774,"win":44.827586206896555,"N":29,"open":0},{"L":10,"adj":"all","start":"2021-01-01","slip":15,"return":157.63865441192326,"DD":36.95610214104493,"win":44.827586206896555,"N":29,"open":0},{"L":10,"adj":"all","start":"2025-01-01","slip":5,"return":13.928076401532453,"DD":23.0937318662049,"win":38.46153846153847,"N":13,"open":1},{"L":10,"adj":"all","start":"2025-01-01","slip":15,"return":10.893281540409827,"DD":23.55378842355995,"win":38.46153846153847,"N":13,"open":1},{"L":40,"adj":"all","start":"2021-01-01","slip":5,"return":241.46079024917464,"DD":29.232458861948885,"win":55.00000000000001,"N":20,"open":0},{"L":40,"adj":"all","start":"2021-01-01","slip":15,"return":228.0719069395432,"DD":29.51496394570704,"win":55.00000000000001,"N":20,"open":0},{"L":40,"adj":"all","start":"2025-01-01","slip":5,"return":-6.465847960939863,"DD":23.915974669682882,"win":22.22222222222222,"N":9,"open":1},{"L":40,"adj":"all","start":"2025-01-01","slip":15,"return":-8.226130469467986,"DD":24.371112535718677,"win":22.22222222222222,"N":9,"open":1},{"L":20,"adj":"split","start":"2021-01-01","slip":5,"return":82.81082072400874,"DD":37.73404618555906,"win":40.74074074074074,"N":27,"open":0},{"L":20,"adj":"split","start":"2021-01-01","slip":15,"return":73.20083083760669,"DD":38.53820424160471,"win":40.74074074074074,"N":27,"open":0},{"L":20,"adj":"split","start":"2025-01-01","slip":5,"return":-6.394336303977532,"DD":25.66153871800738,"win":27.27272727272727,"N":11,"open":1},{"L":20,"adj":"split","start":"2025-01-01","slip":15,"return":-8.522607403030591,"DD":26.84149058960168,"win":27.27272727272727,"N":11,"open":1}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All exact means/CIs/exitcounts recorded26226-26265. The test period is shared across variations; variations are not independent evidence.

Primary L20 remains fixed. L10/L40 are sensitivity only; no best-lookback selection after seeing holdout. Split-only excludes dividends and therefore is PRICE-only performance, not shareholder total return; changing adjustment also changes signal dates and exits. Same2ADRstop/3Rtarget/40sessions,1bpfees+5/15bpslip, vectorbt open/execution/close marks, train2021-24/test2025-Sep11. Results (return/DD/win/N; open marks excluded from win): [{"L":10,"adj":"all","start":"2021-01-01","slip":5,"return":112.67295913234567,"DD":32.16931880264319,"win":37.5,"N":40,"open":0},{"L":10,"adj":"all","start":"2021-01-01","slip":15,"return":96.32186799489786,"DD":32.575084814074316,"win":37.5,"N":40,"open":0},{"L":10,"adj":"all","start":"2025-01-01","slip":5,"return":160.4555454070435,"DD":22.96278069120994,"win":53.333333333333336,"N":15,"open":1},{"L":10,"adj":"all","start":"2025-01-01","slip":15,"return":152.5055331700635,"DD":23.423620604047237,"win":53.333333333333336,"N":15,"open":1},{"L":40,"adj":"all","start":"2021-01-01","slip":5,"return":36.95938733593715,"DD":30.152624809063354,"win":34.61538461538461,"N":26,"open":0},{"L":40,"adj":"all","start":"2021-01-01","slip":15,"return":30.019492658679205,"DD":30.570454769486478,"win":34.61538461538461,"N":26,"open":0},{"L":40,"adj":"all","start":"2025-01-01","slip":5,"return":-5.8818647506624355,"DD":26.356540897697922,"win":23.076923076923077,"N":13,"open":1},{"L":40,"adj":"all","start":"2025-01-01","slip":15,"return":-8.3889660922706,"DD":26.943338884677125,"win":23.076923076923077,"N":13,"open":1},{"L":20,"adj":"split","start":"2021-01-01","slip":5,"return":31.916768191091947,"DD":31.703362138101866,"win":32.25806451612903,"N":31,"open":0},{"L":20,"adj":"split","start":"2021-01-01","slip":15,"return":23.986304575835238,"DD":32.11191552206013,"win":32.25806451612903,"N":31,"open":0},{"L":20,"adj":"split","start":"2025-01-01","slip":5,"return":85.24123287186694,"DD":24.042364503408532,"win":47.05882352941176,"N":17,"open":1},{"L":20,"adj":"split","start":"2025-01-01","slip":15,"return":78.87010986338649,"DD":24.496746300099115,"win":47.05882352941176,"N":17,"open":1}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All exact means/CIs/exitcounts recorded26226-26265. The test period is shared across variations; variations are not independent evidence.

Frozen before this run's results: prior20close breakout AND SMA50, next session open; stop2*priorADR20, target3R, max40sessions including entry. Prior2020warmup. On a surviving day reaching2R, sell quarter and make stop breakeven next day; test full stop/target first, so intraday ordering and 15minute management not reconstructed. Gap exits use open, ambiguous daily bars stopfirst, entryday exits allowed (observed 0). Costs1bpfee+5bpslippage/side, stress15bpslip. vectorbt long-only fractional full-equity portfolio reconciled to manual cash including entryfee, marks ordered open/execution/close. Return includes 1 open mark; N11 and win36.36363636363637% exclude open outcomes. Mean bootstrap10000 IID resamples seed91206, 95%CI[-4.524399609507263,5.843595649618188]% is uncertainty not proof of zero edge. 1 targets/7 stops/3 timeouts; buyhold74.95342579176152%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=STNG&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all , retrievedSep12/endSep11T23:40Z. Adjustmentall returns model synthetic dividend-adjusted asset, not cash dividend payment timing or executable raw-price fills. Training and test separated flat; test period previously inspected for other rules, thus chronological holdout for this frozen specification but not globally unseen evidence. Quantifies payoff shape, not whole-share/15min implementation. Holdout/stress weakness prevents treating the screen as an established stock edge.

Frozen before this run's results: prior20close breakout AND SMA50, next session open; stop2*priorADR20, target3R, max40sessions including entry. Prior2020warmup. On a surviving day reaching2R, sell quarter and make stop breakeven next day; test full stop/target first, so intraday ordering and 15minute management not reconstructed. Gap exits use open, ambiguous daily bars stopfirst, entryday exits allowed (observed 0). Costs1bpfee+5bpslippage/side, stress15bpslip. vectorbt long-only fractional full-equity portfolio reconciled to manual cash including entryfee, marks ordered open/execution/close. Return includes 0 open mark; N27 and win44.44444444444444% exclude open outcomes. Mean bootstrap10000 IID resamples seed91206, 95%CI[-1.5149595070621042,8.708828524196868]% is uncertainty not proof of zero edge. 6 targets/14 stops/7 timeouts; buyhold377.8375088751394%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=STNG&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all , retrievedSep12/endSep11T23:40Z. Adjustmentall returns model synthetic dividend-adjusted asset, not cash dividend payment timing or executable raw-price fills. Training and test separated flat; test period previously inspected for other rules, thus chronological holdout for this frozen specification but not globally unseen evidence. Quantifies payoff shape, not whole-share/15min implementation. Holdout/stress weakness prevents treating the screen as an established stock edge.

Frozen before this run's results: prior20close breakout AND SMA50, next session open; stop2*priorADR20, target3R, max40sessions including entry. Prior2020warmup. Full fixed exits; no discretionary trailing. Gap exits use open, ambiguous daily bars stopfirst, entryday exits allowed (observed 0). Costs1bpfee+5bpslippage/side, stress15bpslip. vectorbt long-only fractional full-equity portfolio reconciled to manual cash including entryfee, marks ordered open/execution/close. Return includes 1 open mark; N11 and win27.27272727272727% exclude open outcomes. Mean bootstrap10000 IID resamples seed91206, 95%CI[-5.197660030798593,5.848221916807604]% is uncertainty not proof of zero edge. 1 targets/7 stops/3 timeouts; buyhold74.95342579176152%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=STNG&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all , retrievedSep12/endSep11T23:40Z. Adjustmentall returns model synthetic dividend-adjusted asset, not cash dividend payment timing or executable raw-price fills. Training and test separated flat; test period previously inspected for other rules, thus chronological holdout for this frozen specification but not globally unseen evidence. Quantifies payoff shape, not whole-share/15min implementation. Holdout/stress weakness prevents treating the screen as an established stock edge.

Frozen before this run's results: prior20close breakout AND SMA50, next session open; stop2*priorADR20, target3R, max40sessions including entry. Prior2020warmup. Full fixed exits; no discretionary trailing. Gap exits use open, ambiguous daily bars stopfirst, entryday exits allowed (observed 0). Costs1bpfee+5bpslippage/side, stress15bpslip. vectorbt long-only fractional full-equity portfolio reconciled to manual cash including entryfee, marks ordered open/execution/close. Return includes 0 open mark; N26 and win46.15384615384615% exclude open outcomes. Mean bootstrap10000 IID resamples seed91206, 95%CI[-0.6130553619346064,10.616290391886833]% is uncertainty not proof of zero edge. 6 targets/12 stops/8 timeouts; buyhold377.8375088751394%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=STNG&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all , retrievedSep12/endSep11T23:40Z. Adjustmentall returns model synthetic dividend-adjusted asset, not cash dividend payment timing or executable raw-price fills. Training and test separated flat; test period previously inspected for other rules, thus chronological holdout for this frozen specification but not globally unseen evidence. Quantifies payoff shape, not whole-share/15min implementation. Holdout/stress weakness prevents treating the screen as an established stock edge.

Frozen before this run's results: prior20close breakout AND SMA50, next session open; stop2*priorADR20, target3R, max40sessions including entry. Prior2020warmup. On a surviving day reaching2R, sell quarter and make stop breakeven next day; test full stop/target first, so intraday ordering and 15minute management not reconstructed. Gap exits use open, ambiguous daily bars stopfirst, entryday exits allowed (observed 0). Costs1bpfee+5bpslippage/side, stress15bpslip. vectorbt long-only fractional full-equity portfolio reconciled to manual cash including entryfee, marks ordered open/execution/close. Return includes 1 open mark; N18 and win44.44444444444444% exclude open outcomes. Mean bootstrap10000 IID resamples seed91206, 95%CI[-2.240298785942834,8.466477223104828]% is uncertainty not proof of zero edge. 6 targets/11 stops/1 timeouts; buyhold280.5877803557618%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all , retrievedSep12/endSep11T23:40Z. Adjustmentall returns model synthetic dividend-adjusted asset, not cash dividend payment timing or executable raw-price fills. Training and test separated flat; test period previously inspected for other rules, thus chronological holdout for this frozen specification but not globally unseen evidence. Quantifies payoff shape, not whole-share/15min implementation. Positive result retains watch; must resolve upcoming raw-stop distribution mechanics.

Frozen before this run's results: prior20close breakout AND SMA50, next session open; stop2*priorADR20, target3R, max40sessions including entry. Prior2020warmup. On a surviving day reaching2R, sell quarter and make stop breakeven next day; test full stop/target first, so intraday ordering and 15minute management not reconstructed. Gap exits use open, ambiguous daily bars stopfirst, entryday exits allowed (observed 0). Costs1bpfee+5bpslippage/side, stress15bpslip. vectorbt long-only fractional full-equity portfolio reconciled to manual cash including entryfee, marks ordered open/execution/close. Return includes 0 open mark; N33 and win42.42424242424242% exclude open outcomes. Mean bootstrap10000 IID resamples seed91206, 95%CI[-1.7832491318441552,5.371609867705768]% is uncertainty not proof of zero edge. 7 targets/24 stops/2 timeouts; buyhold191.44447020635292%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all , retrievedSep12/endSep11T23:40Z. Adjustmentall returns model synthetic dividend-adjusted asset, not cash dividend payment timing or executable raw-price fills. Training and test separated flat; test period previously inspected for other rules, thus chronological holdout for this frozen specification but not globally unseen evidence. Quantifies payoff shape, not whole-share/15min implementation. Positive result retains watch; must resolve upcoming raw-stop distribution mechanics.

Frozen before this run's results: prior20close breakout AND SMA50, next session open; stop2*priorADR20, target3R, max40sessions including entry. Prior2020warmup. Full fixed exits; no discretionary trailing. Gap exits use open, ambiguous daily bars stopfirst, entryday exits allowed (observed 0). Costs1bpfee+5bpslippage/side, stress15bpslip. vectorbt long-only fractional full-equity portfolio reconciled to manual cash including entryfee, marks ordered open/execution/close. Return includes 1 open mark; N17 and win47.05882352941176% exclude open outcomes. Mean bootstrap10000 IID resamples seed91206, 95%CI[-1.3523231382960088,10.722254655961946]% is uncertainty not proof of zero edge. 7 targets/9 stops/1 timeouts; buyhold280.5877803557618%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all , retrievedSep12/endSep11T23:40Z. Adjustmentall returns model synthetic dividend-adjusted asset, not cash dividend payment timing or executable raw-price fills. Training and test separated flat; test period previously inspected for other rules, thus chronological holdout for this frozen specification but not globally unseen evidence. Quantifies payoff shape, not whole-share/15min implementation. Positive result retains watch; must resolve upcoming raw-stop distribution mechanics.

Frozen before this run's results: prior20close breakout AND SMA50, next session open; stop2*priorADR20, target3R, max40sessions including entry. Prior2020warmup. Full fixed exits; no discretionary trailing. Gap exits use open, ambiguous daily bars stopfirst, entryday exits allowed (observed 0). Costs1bpfee+5bpslippage/side, stress15bpslip. vectorbt long-only fractional full-equity portfolio reconciled to manual cash including entryfee, marks ordered open/execution/close. Return includes 0 open mark; N33 and win33.33333333333333% exclude open outcomes. Mean bootstrap10000 IID resamples seed91206, 95%CI[-1.9720576853637237,6.135799986935027]% is uncertainty not proof of zero edge. 9 targets/21 stops/3 timeouts; buyhold191.44447020635292%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all , retrievedSep12/endSep11T23:40Z. Adjustmentall returns model synthetic dividend-adjusted asset, not cash dividend payment timing or executable raw-price fills. Training and test separated flat; test period previously inspected for other rules, thus chronological holdout for this frozen specification but not globally unseen evidence. Quantifies payoff shape, not whole-share/15min implementation. Positive result retains watch; must resolve upcoming raw-stop distribution mechanics.

Premises:1 dated issuer bookedrates support tight near-term vessel utilization;2 contracts have different terms and ballast costs;3 capital returns and replenishment change assets and liquidity. Valid conditional chain, sound only within dated disclosures, not proof war lasts. First order: longer voyages can raise vessel demand and TCE, benefiting owners while cargo buyers absorb freight. Second order: owners lock term charters, spend on fuel/crews/newbuilds and distribute cash; supplier/shipyard counterparties can capture part of rent. Third order: new deliveries or route normalization can compress future rates; a sale-funded dividend leaves fewer earning assets unless replacements offset. Strongest counterexample is cargo destruction: fewer shipped barrels can outweigh longer routes, making congestion harmful to owners too. Which happens is unknown, not estimated from price correlation. FRO sources https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-second-quarter-and-six-months-2026-results/ and https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/913290/000162828026021774/fro-20251231.htm ; STNG https://www.scorpiotankers.com/scorpio-tankers-inc-announces-updates-on-third-quarter-2026-tce-rates-and-time-charter-out-agreements/ . TCE already deducts voyage costs: do not subtract bunker a second time in a TCE bridge. Need net fleet delivery counts and actual quarter revenue days before annual profit extrapolation. Facts end at issued terms; directional chains are hypotheses.

1. Start flat, seeking bottleneck rents; binding economic constraint is paid freight net of ballast/operating/capital costs. FRO booked VLCC156900/day versus23800 estimated breakeven is strong evidence of near-term capacity value, not an executable stock forecast. Aug28 https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-second-quarter-and-six-months-2026-results/ explicitly expects ballast to reduce quarter TCE. 2. FRO Sep11 distribution3.41 contains.80 from completed vessel sales; do not annualize asset-sale cash https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . At49.21 it is6.9295%, and arithmetic ex-price45.80 falls below illustrative46.51089 stop; no economic profit is created by this subtraction. 3. Annual20F shows no customer>=10%, but477.9m2025bunker purchases from15%-ownedTFG and nine subsequentnewbuilds6Hengli/3Dalian for1.224bn; no supplier-share denominator recovered https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/913290/000162828026021774/fro-20251231.htm . Diversified customers do not eliminate input/shipyard dependencies. 4. STNG new3yrLR2rates40188/42500 versus currentpoolspot64900 express durability/upside tradeoff, not contradictory comparable prices https://www.scorpiotankers.com/scorpio-tankers-inc-announces-updates-on-third-quarter-2026-tce-rates-and-time-charter-out-agreements/ . Strong counterargument: actual FRO profits support participation despite uncertain macro outcome. Conclusion retain economic watch; validate payoff and raw/cash execution before treating historical adjusted returns as implementable. Sources are two issuers, repeated releases are not extra independent evidence.

1. Start and finish supply170.20 cash/account850.99, no open lots or pending supplyorders per context andfundtradequery. No heldthesis/Rprogress/holdingage toreview. OtherfundEEMqueue leftwithitsmanager. Goal affordablebottleneckpricingpower; mandatorypositivepayoffandentryfail forFTK. 2. Fundamental2873/consequences2874: internationalgrowthcredible, exclusivepricing/cashcaptureunproven. H1FCF-7.819m, netsettlementcash36.55%,EV/guideEBITDA19.92x; sole-sourceinputsanduncertainpass-through canmakeFTKasufferer. Positivecounterargumentrealcustomerpurchases,customerrefinance,gasdemand. Original https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm ; https://ir.flotekind.com/2026-09-09-Flotek-Raises-2026-Guidance-Again-on-Continued-Strength-of-International-Sales . 3. Correctedbacktests2887-90: fixedL20train-85.723%N26/holdout-29.244%N14/stress-31.197%, correctedholdoutDD41.741%/stress43.066%; all12lookback/costvariantsnegative. Statistical2862/simulation2863: traininghalfKelly0,quarterprobe0. Technical2864: close27.33<35.83, noentry. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Noorder, noexitmove, no optionorcrypto substitute basedonthis thesis; no automaticshortinference. 4. Monitor294 resolved onlyhand-off/collectorreceipt: actual226ENDin2522, HWMnewGE/CPPcontractdetailremainsgap,priorwatchintact. New313Sep30ABLreview and31806UTCnext-runcheck havebothbranches. Collector236 accepted120min/12runs, local3/3ENDpassed afterremovingbs4; remoteENDnotyetfoundinlatestnotes and mustbeverifiednext run. Existingothermonitorspreserved. 5. Research reachedthreeindependentoriginfamilies (FTK/ProFrac affiliated,Aramco,SNF) and12questionthreads; newsearchesstoppedchanginganswer. Gaps: Saudiinvoiceaging,exclusivity,qualifiedcapacitytonnes/currentleadtime;15minmanagementnotvalidatedbecausecurrentrulealreadyfails; this isone deepdive,notwholemarketscreen. No separatefundjustified. Lessons825-827 andcodearchive saved. Initial43minplan/45hard, ~12minelapsed atfinish preparation; no threadoverran, journalprotectedbeforedeadline. Fundingneeddoesnotalterrisk ormanufactureanorder.