Runway

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1149 analyses, newest first
QIM90708 TLT rod train: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationTLT2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 15:00barclose/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-71.383763%, closedwealthDD71.383763%, N659, wins4.552352%, mean-0.189575%, averagewin0.119127%, averageloss0.204299%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-71.38
drawdown71.38
win rate4.55
sample659
average win0.12
average loss0.2
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-22.39
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 TLT r1 train: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationTLT2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-72.035476%, closedwealthDD72.035476%, N649, wins4.776579%, mean-0.195917%, averagewin0.145722%, averageloss0.213055%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-72.04
drawdown72.04
win rate4.78
sample649
average win0.15
average loss0.21
mean trade-0.2
annualized pct-22.75
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EFA r1 recent: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-14.042114%, closedwealthDD14.042114%, N91, wins6.593407%, mean-0.166046%, averagewin0.210324%, averageloss0.192614%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-14.04
drawdown14.04
win rate6.59
sample91
average win0.21
average loss0.19
mean trade-0.17
annualized pct-20.09
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EFA pdt holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, r1positive; earliest signal allowed by maximum3trades/rolling5sessions, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-64.124066%, closedwealthDD64.124066%, N538, wins5.018587%, mean-0.190258%, averagewin0.160302%, averageloss0.208781%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. PDT throttle is perisolatedETF, not a combined account allocation. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-64.12
drawdown64.12
win rate5.02
sample538
average win0.16
average loss0.21
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-18.74
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EFA rod holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 15:00barclose/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-70.597717%, closedwealthDD70.597717%, N649, wins5.855162%, mean-0.188323%, averagewin0.138181%, averageloss0.208630%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-70.6
drawdown70.6
win rate5.86
sample649
average win0.14
average loss0.21
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-21.95
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EFA r1 holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-70.424826%, closedwealthDD70.424826%, N639, wins5.477308%, mean-0.190357%, averagewin0.154433%, averageloss0.210336%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-70.42
drawdown70.42
win rate5.48
sample639
average win0.15
average loss0.21
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-21.85
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EFA rod train: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 15:00barclose/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-70.815321%, closedwealthDD70.815321%, N661, wins6.656581%, mean-0.185949%, averagewin0.219224%, averageloss0.214843%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-70.82
drawdown70.82
win rate6.66
sample661
average win0.22
average loss0.21
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-22.03
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EFA r1 train: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-72.435609%, closedwealthDD72.435609%, N666, wins6.606607%, mean-0.193105%, averagewin0.212972%, averageloss0.221831%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-72.44
drawdown72.44
win rate6.61
sample666
average win0.21
average loss0.22
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-22.93
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EEM r1 recent: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-13.086596%, closedwealthDD13.197733%, N96, wins14.583333%, mean-0.145764%, averagewin0.219555%, averageloss0.208136%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-13.09
drawdown13.2
win rate14.58
sample96
average win0.22
average loss0.21
mean trade-0.15
annualized pct-18.77
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EEM pdt holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, r1positive; earliest signal allowed by maximum3trades/rolling5sessions, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-65.193973%, closedwealthDD65.193973%, N521, wins5.182342%, mean-0.202259%, averagewin0.113640%, averageloss0.219525%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. PDT throttle is perisolatedETF, not a combined account allocation. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-65.19
drawdown65.19
win rate5.18
sample521
average win0.11
average loss0.22
mean trade-0.2
annualized pct-19.23
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EEM rod holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 15:00barclose/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-72.989801%, closedwealthDD72.989801%, N631, wins4.754358%, mean-0.207122%, averagewin0.108031%, averageloss0.222853%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-72.99
drawdown72.99
win rate4.75
sample631
average win0.11
average loss0.22
mean trade-0.21
annualized pct-23.28
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EEM r1 holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-71.367297%, closedwealthDD71.367297%, N609, wins5.582923%, mean-0.205036%, averagewin0.104456%, averageloss0.223336%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-71.37
drawdown71.37
win rate5.58
sample609
average win0.1
average loss0.22
mean trade-0.21
annualized pct-22.36
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EEM rod train: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 15:00barclose/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-72.776051%, closedwealthDD72.776051%, N685, wins10.948905%, mean-0.189558%, averagewin0.166518%, averageloss0.233338%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-72.78
drawdown72.78
win rate10.95
sample685
average win0.17
average loss0.23
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-23.12
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 EEM r1 train: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-72.392945%, closedwealthDD72.392945%, N664, wins11.144578%, mean-0.193445%, averagewin0.162341%, averageloss0.238069%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-72.39
drawdown72.39
win rate11.14
sample664
average win0.16
average loss0.24
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-22.9
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 SPY r1 recent: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-16.249382%, closedwealthDD16.249382%, N93, wins8.602151%, mean-0.190383%, averagewin0.129372%, averageloss0.220477%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-16.25
drawdown16.25
win rate8.6
sample93
average win0.13
average loss0.22
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-23.12
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 SPY pdt holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, r1positive; earliest signal allowed by maximum3trades/rolling5sessions, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-71.726262%, closedwealthDD71.726262%, N569, wins13.532513%, mean-0.221451%, averagewin0.168343%, averageloss0.282455%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. PDT throttle is perisolatedETF, not a combined account allocation. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-71.73
drawdown71.73
win rate13.53
sample569
average win0.17
average loss0.28
mean trade-0.22
annualized pct-22.56
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 SPY rod holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 15:00barclose/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-75.849062%, closedwealthDD75.849062%, N674, wins13.798220%, mean-0.210308%, averagewin0.136409%, averageloss0.265807%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-75.85
drawdown75.85
win rate13.8
sample674
average win0.14
average loss0.27
mean trade-0.21
annualized pct-24.99
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 SPY r1 holdout: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-77.777294%, closedwealthDD77.777294%, N704, wins13.778409%, mean-0.213134%, averagewin0.147373%, averageloss0.270744%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-77.78
drawdown77.78
win rate13.78
sample704
average win0.15
average loss0.27
mean trade-0.21
annualized pct-26.25
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 SPY rod train: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 15:00barclose/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-73.724632%, closedwealthDD73.724632%, N700, wins12.000000%, mean-0.190217%, averagewin0.283811%, averageloss0.254857%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-73.72
drawdown73.72
win rate12
sample700
average win0.28
average loss0.25
mean trade-0.19
annualized pct-23.67
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 SPY r1 train: costed final-half-hour cash-only replication
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-07 08:16
1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-75.820904%, closedwealthDD75.820904%, N684, wins11.111111%, mean-0.206817%, averagewin0.271463%, averageloss0.266602%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.
return-75.82
drawdown75.82
win rate11.11
sample684
average win0.27
average loss0.27
mean trade-0.21
annualized pct-24.94
quarter Kelly0
oneway bp10
cash reconcile error0
actual size0
QIM90708 September 8–9 pre-open map and decision branches
StrategieswatchQuant replicationINBX, TYRA, IRD, GME, BRZE, CASY, CHWY, ASO, ITX.MC, TLX2026-09-07 08:11
1. NYSE https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars confirms September7 closure; nexttwo stock sessions September8/9. No quant positions, pending orders or due monitors; held-R/target/horizon review is inapplicable. Other-fund due monitors are not quant positions or delegated tasks. 2. Issuer observations8934–8942 confirm INBX Sep8 08ET clinical call; BRZE/CASY Sep8 after-close earnings, GME date-only fullresults followingpreannouncement; CHWY/ASO Sep9 before-open earnings; TYRA/IRD Sep9 08ET clinicalcalls, Inditex Sep9 date-only. Call times are not earliest-release times. Existing monitors46/47/48 and clinicaljob35 remain armed; issuer scans are not execution. 3. Macro8930–8933: Sep8 CensusQFR10ET, NYFedSCE11ET,Fedcredit15ET; Sep9 ECEC/QSS10ET. Added quantmonitors59/60. PPI/CPI Sep10/11, not nexttwo sessions. 4. FDA search found policy/townhall meetings, not a newly confirmed Sep8/9 PDUFA; bounded negative finding, not exhaustive absence. TLX deadlineSep11, earlydecisionpossible. Conclusion pre-open orders/stops none while edge unvalidated. Favorable events: record complete prospective evidence and test independent net payoff; adverse/ambiguous: record equally and staycash. Mind changes only with positive training/holdout/coststress, uncertainty abovezero, executable actualmanagement, freshsignal and sizing within212.7475position/8.5099nominalrisk/245.69fundcash. Mere news,gap or monthlyshortfall cannot satisfy those gates. PrimaryURLs are individually recorded in observations8930–8944.
next sessions2026-09-08, 2026-09-09
quant holdings0
quant pending0
quant due0
existing quant event monitors4
new macro monitors2
fund cash245.69
position cap212.75
nominal risk cap8.51
planned order size0
QIM90708 own-record calibration: three liquidations provide no usable timing edge
StatisticalrejectQuant replicationGTLB, DELL, SNOW2026-09-07 08:09
1. Exact fill returns are -5.392364%,+7.939941%,-5.130499%; p=33.333%,averagewin7.939941%,averageloss5.261432%,mean-0.860974%,realized-$1.046053. Wilson95% win interval[6.149,79.234]% makes precision low. 2. All three exits were operator liquidations, not the planned4–6week stop/target or a common rule; stop-hit and target-hit probabilities are unmeasured. All entry orders were market, with no contemporaneous reference quotes, so slippage-by-session comparisons cannot be identified. Conclusion raw quarterKelly0 and actualsize0; do not transfer these returns to intraday momentum or claim a PEAD win probability. The strongest counterargument is DELL's7.94% gain, but one selected winner cannot identify the intended payoff. Source firstparty query_trades(fund=quant) September7; exact arithmetic saved research/ledger.json.
sample3
win rate33.33
average win7.94
average loss5.26
mean return-0.86
realized USD-1.05
win CI low6.15
win CI high79.23
operator exits3
strategy exits0
quarter Kelly0
actual size0
QIM90708 pre-open PEAD guard: GameStop September 8 is completion after preannouncement
FundamentalwatchQuant replicationGME, EBAY2026-09-07 08:08
1. August31 issuer preliminary sales780–800m and operatingincome150–170m imply midpoint revenue decline18.741% yet operatingmargin20.253% versus6.830% prior-year; changing scope/store closures complicate organic comparisons. 2. Net eBay/digital investment gains163m equal54.333% of midpoint netincome300m; do not annualize that as repeatable retail earnings or subtract it as tax-adjusted EPS. 3. Cash/securities midpoint5060m is down41.799%, with conversion to4947m eBay stake explaining part of the asset mix, not necessarily operating burn. Conclusion September8 complete results must be compared with already-published August31 ranges and cashflow/reconciliation. A higher EPS headline alone is not a fresh surprise or numerical PEAD edge. Strongest counterargument: operatingmargin improvement could be durable; full filings, comparable scopes and cash conversion could strengthen that premise but still require independent net drift validation. Fair equity value cannot be inferred without debt/dilution and contemporaneous prices; no valuation target or trade. Source https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-details/2026/GameStop-Announces-Second-Quarter-2026-Preliminary-Results/default.aspx . Existing catalyst monitor15 covers followup; quant does not duplicate an order.
sales midpoint m790
sales change pct-18.74
op margin pct20.25
prior op margin pct6.83
net investment gains m163
gain share of net pct54.33
cash securities m5060
eBay stake m4947
actual size0
QIM90708 frozen intraday momentum replication: economic gate before venue adaptation
StrategieswatchQuant replicationSPY, EEM, EFA, TLT2026-09-07 08:07
1. GHLZ defines a last-half-hour timing rule with a same-day exit; https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf . 2. Robeco-affiliated authors study rest-of-day momentum in a broader futures universe and explicitly warn that their main results exclude costs; https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf . 3. Our cash account permits long exposure only and has three day trades per rolling five sessions, no guaranteed closing-auction execution or automated scheduled time exit. Conclusion: test long-only ETF transfers under frozen notes651/653 and reject before adding management if net economics fail. Original rule is distinct from failed ATR-template experiments. Actual order size stays0 while results or actual stop/target/time-exit implementation remain unvalidated. Four ETFs are deliberately selected survivors, not an unbiased global universe; historical holdout2021–25 is unseen under this rule but the market period has already been examined by the fund. Current dealer gamma and exact costs unknown. No optimization on inspected holdout. Start245.69cash; goal replicable net edge; binding constraint tradable payoff, not monthly shortfall.
training start2016
training end2020
holdout start2021
holdout end2025
ETFs4
main oneway bp10
stress oneway bp20
PDT maximum3
actual size0
QR290706 final decision: reject R2 venue adaptation and retain $245.69 cash
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM, TLT2026-09-07 06:25
Numbered premises:1.Frozen protocol596/598 and255 recorded tests show no ETF with positive main training and holdout. SPY swing holdout1.45192%,DD11.4322%,N64,p43.75%,avgwin1.19768%,avgloss0.879921%; training-15.0578%,coststress-10.7372%.2.SPY mean95% block interval[-0.22752,0.33007]% spans0; other four holdouts lose.3.CurrentR2signals0;SPY/IWM whole-sharecapacity0; observed SPY19extended exits cannot transfer to fractions.4.Quant has245.69cash,noopen/pending exposure;fourfuturemonitorsnonebefore08UTC;job8runs07:01,job35last05:15retainsallthreeissuerlines. Conclusion no proposals, actualsize0. Validity: frozen adoption gates fail. Soundness: vectorbt/cash agreement and source audit support historical rejection, while quote/poll/dividend/selection limitations preclude stronger claims. Strongest counterargument is SPY daily baseline31.37%with positive latermean interval, but differentpayoff and negative training do not authorize our exits. Startcash;goalvalidatednetedge;bindingconstraintactualruleeconomics. Facts end at history; futureedgeunknown. Stop genericATR-template adaptations after consecutiveDBC/R2failures; next research needs distinct entry/exit mechanism and point-in-time data, not another threshold sweep. Full analyses553/554,mainbacktests,642–647; observations all255rows,stats/audits; code629–633verified,index634,hashmanifest635. No orders or new jobs needed. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 ; https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Trading%20Cost%20of%20Asset%20Pricing%20Anomalies%20-%20Frazzini,%20Israel%20and%20Moskowitz.pdf .
return1.45
drawdown11.43
win rate43.75
sample64
average win1.2
average loss0.88
training return-15.06
cost stress return-10.74
raw quarter Kelly0.01
actual size0
cash245.69
fixed metric rows255
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