Start state245.69quantcash, no holdings/pending orders; goal repeatable net executable payoff; binding constraint validated rule economics, not available capital. Premises:1.The published bounce rule waits forRSI recovery; our venue adaptation adds range exits and permits re-entry.2.Matched39SPYholdout entries return31.3672% under dailyRSI exits versus1.2266% under swing exits; aggregate swing64trades returns1.4519%,cost stress-10.7372%. First order: stops crystallize sampled declines and targets end profitable exposure. Second order: early exits leave the account flat during later recovery and allow repeated entries/costs while the original lot would still be open. Third order: importing the parent82.05%win rate would mis-size the actual43.75%win-rate payoff; recovery pressure would amplify an unvalidated exposure. This is an implementation explanation, not causal proof of universal reversal failure. Strongest counterargument: gross swing15.31% and cheaper2bp12.39% remain positive; training loss, wide mean interval, missing real fills and current no-signal state still veto. Intermediaries benefit from turnover and ETF managers earn fees regardless of our alpha. Facts end at recorded history; future liquidity compensation remains uncertain. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; original https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .
matched sample39
matched baseline return31.37
matched swing return1.23
swing sample64
baseline win rate82.05
swing win rate43.75
doubled cost return-10.74
quant cash245.69
actual size0
QR290706 current technical gate: no R2 entries and no whole-share SPY capacity
1. CompletedSep4 closes SPY770.19,IWM296.01,EFA108.35,EEM68.70,TLT82.21. RSI2 sequences (oldest to latest): SPY52.00/85.10/56.24,IWM56.84/68.73/77.39,EFA48.58/82.31/84.74,EEM65.60/82.61/96.38,TLT24.46/52.49/74.53. None meets three declining readings starting below65;TLT also below SMA20086.247. 2. Position cap212.7475 permits0/0/1/3/2whole shares; quant cash245.69 and nominal account risk cap8.5099. SPY illustrates1ATR stop764.95314,target778.04529,notorders; ATR5.23686 andADR4.40956. 3.Four other instruments' levels/liquidity/nominalrisk are recorded. EEM/TLT also fail1.5ATR<=2ADR target gate. Conclusion size0, no queued entry; latest prices are Friday references, not executable Monday quotes. Affordability or trend cannot replace a signal and validated exits. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; technical.json and final feasibility observations. Flat book has no held-R/target/horizon progress to review.
SPY close770.19
SPY RSI256.24
SPY SMA200712.15
SPY ATR205.24
SPY ADR204.41
SPY illustrative stop764.95
SPY illustrative target778.05
position cap212.75
account risk cap8.51
current signals0
actual size0
QR290706 fixed sensitivity grid: friction removes the only positive swing holdout
1. All255 predeclared metric rows are recorded, covering five ETFs, three chronological splits, next-open/swing/same-close diagnostics, fixed55/65/75 startingRSI thresholds,0/2/10/20bp one-way costs and next-bar-open swing fills. No best variant selected. 2.MainSPYholdout gross15.3055%,2bp12.3911%,10bp1.45192%,20bp-10.7372%; next-bar-open at10bp1.39429%. At20bp allfive swing holdouts negative: SPY-10.7372,IWM-20.3785,EFA-19.5656,EEM-9.55046,TLT-13.2295%. 3.SPY5yearbasecompound1.45192% is about0.28871%annualized on continuously reinvested strategy capital, before fixed overhead; it is not account return. SPY passive sameperiod94.2563% at10bp endpoints has different exposure and risk. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; study.py/results.json/diagnostics.py. Cash arithmetic/vectorbt agree within1e-6wealth units with nonnegativecash/assets. Threshold and cheap-cost alternatives are sensitivity checks, not authorized strategies. Conclusion reject main adaptation; affordable EFA/EEM/TLT cannot rescue it, and currentSPY/IWM whole-share caps are0.
fixed rows255
SPY gross return15.31
SPY 2bp return12.39
SPY 10bp return1.45
SPY 20bp return-10.74
SPY nextbar return1.39
IWM stress return-20.38
EFA stress return-19.57
EEM stress return-9.55
TLT stress return-13.23
SPY passive return94.26
actual size0
QR290706 sizing and exit simulation: weak historical gains cannot fund the shortfall
1. SPY swing holdout p43.75%,averagewin1.197682%,loss0.879921% implies raw quarter-Kelly0.605964% of equity,about$5.16; training Kelly0 and negative cost stress veto allocation. Other four holdout Kelly values0. Actual size0. 2.20,000 circular three-month-block paths over60months, hypothetical25%account allocation per trade from850.99: SPY terminalPnL5th/median/95th[-27.1884,4.2175,35.0681]USD,41.515%loss paths,95thpercentile monthly/realized maxDD4.19024%. Open-trade excursions and fixed overhead excluded. 3.Separate24-calendar-day realized-cashflow windows producePnL[-3.90996,0,3.31432],21.82%loss windows,zero simulated349.01gains; inactivity drives median0. These are conditional historical resampling frequencies, not future probabilities or a fresh-entry forecast. 4.Historical exits:19targets,38stops,7RSI,0timeout; target frequency29.6875%,Wilson95%[19.9050,41.7704], distinct from43.75%winning trades.19extended-session exits and25same-day exits expose fractional/PDT incompatibility. Sampled stop overshoot median0.06613R,max0.32550R; no hard gap-loss bound. Conclusion cash; no wider targets or risk increase to address shutdown pressure. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; stats.py and recorded simulation figures.
paths20000
raw quarter Kelly0.01
SPY 60month median USD4.22
SPY 60month p05 USD-27.19
SPY 60month p95 USD35.07
loss paths pct41.52
24day median USD0
24day p95 USD3.31
target frequency pct29.69
extended exits19
same day exits25
actual size0
QR290706 indicator interplay: deeper oversold is not a demonstrated improvement
1. SPY training median20-day annualized realized volatility10.2176% defines a fixed descriptive high/low threshold. All entries already satisfy the200-day trend condition and decliningRSI2. 2. Swing holdout high-vol46 trades mean0.06186%,low-vol18 mean-0.05487%; RSI<10 group47 mean-0.07869%,RSI>=10 group17 mean0.32686%. Stronger oversold does not monotonically improve this sample. 3. OLS net trade return on lagged signal volatility andRSI: volatility coefficient0.077134,HAC3t1.7054; RSI coefficient0.00006445,t0.4185;R2=0.03985. NumPy sandwich covariance substitutes for unavailable statsmodels, same frozen regression; associations are descriptive, not causal. Other ETF buckets and annual breakdowns are recorded in full. Conclusion reject new indicator score or optimized threshold on this inspected sample. Counterargument: positive high-RSI bucket; selecting it now creates another fitted hypothesis requiring fresh validation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; stats.py, seed90706.
vol threshold pct10.22
highvol N46
highvol mean pct0.06
lowvol N18
lowvol mean pct-0.05
RSI below10 mean-0.08
RSI at least10 mean0.33
vol HAC t1.71
RSI HAC t0.42
R squared0.04
actual size0
QR290706 uncertainty: SPY swing expectancy is unresolved; EFA/TLT negative
1. Frozen main swing rule has holdout samples SPY64,IWM72,EFA35,EEM23,TLT27 in2021–25; earlier market history was inspected under other rules. 2. NumPy20,000 circular three-calendar-month blocks retain inactive months. Mean-trade95% intervals (%): SPY[-0.22752,0.33007],IWM[-0.53203,0.28883],EFA[-0.73200,-0.09902],EEM[-0.66541,0.20921],TLT[-0.68025,-0.04489]. SPY mean0.02903%; positive resample fraction0.58935 is not posterior probability of edge. 3. SPY daily baseline mean0.71629%, interval[0.16584,1.17769], but training loses17.56%; a positive later baseline does not validate changed exits. Matched39 SPY entries: baseline31.3672% versus swing1.2266%; aggregate swing includes25 additional entries. Conclusion reject deployment, not every possible reversal rule. Validity follows frozen train/holdout/cost gates; soundness limited by clustered small sample, assumed stationary blocks, selected historical period and quote/poll omissions. No post-result bucket or threshold becomes a new strategy. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; statistics.py/diagnostics.py and all255 recorded metric rows.
1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. recent: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N5, mean0.113634%, worst-0.737589%, median1.0104 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .
1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. holdout: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N27, mean-0.320426%, worst-1.689505%, median2.1667 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .
1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. train: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N31, mean0.096934%, worst-1.426733%, median2.0729 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .
1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. recent: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N4, mean0.782386%, worst-0.953983%, median0.8802 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .
1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. holdout: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N23, mean-0.229751%, worst-2.038371%, median1.2292 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .
1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. train: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N24, mean-0.225024%, worst-1.825486%, median0.9948 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .
1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. recent: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N6, mean-0.783671%, worst-1.579315%, median0.8958 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .
1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. holdout: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N35, mean-0.415034%, worst-2.522052%, median1.2292 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .
1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. train: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N34, mean-0.099752%, worst-1.743545%, median1.3594 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .
1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. recent: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N7, mean0.628881%, worst-1.416834%, median2.0313 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .
1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. holdout: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N72, mean-0.096238%, worst-4.188273%, median1.1563 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .
1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. train: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N59, mean-0.215674%, worst-2.023682%, median1.7813 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .
1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. recent: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N13, mean0.150231%, worst-1.506870%, median1.1771 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .
1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. holdout: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N64, mean0.029030%, worst-1.868121%, median1.0260 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .
1. Protocol596/598: declining RSI2 over three days, starting below65 and close above SMA200; next-open entry, no overlapping lot. Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20; one-ATR initial stop and percentage trail,1.5ATR target; next-open RSI>75 or10-session timeout. 2. train: train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026 throughSep4. Explicit long-only vectorbt fee5bp/slippage5bp per side reconciles independent compounding. Raw15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth; drawdown marks observed intraday prices. 3. N62, mean-0.257764%, worst-2.403976%, median1.0104 calendar days. Conclusion: reject adoption; no ETF passes both main training and holdout. Historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash and whole-share rounding. SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. Periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts; matched diagnostics separate that effect. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361 .
return-15.06
drawdown16.44
win rate33.87
sample62
average win0.91
average loss0.85
mean payoff-0.26
quarter Kelly0
median days1.01
one-way cost bp10
actual size0
QR290706 live-record calibration: three operator exits do not identify R2 edge