Stats

Premises1 DARDEN06stressedgreenexecution6eventmean.76280%,CI[-1.49818,2.52709]%;4/6winsWilson[.29999,.90323]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&feed=sip&adjustment=all .2 OLSnetDRIreturnongrosssamewindowSPY:train12alpha.251474%,beta.190686,corr.202725;test6alpha-.278871%,beta-1.678656,corr-.902852. Testmeanexcess+1.38334%doesnotestablishstablealpha; signreversal,smallNandpost-selectionknownholdoutremain. BenchmarkholdsfullT5->T1closewhileDRIexitsintraday,soexposuredurationsdiffer;notcausalfactorattribution.3 Ownquery_tradesfundcatalyst ledgerthreeclosed0wins,meanloss16.380601%,realized-31.937258USD;twooperatorliquidationscensorintendedhorizons. RAREloss45.860062%=6.440348listed-stopR. Noobservedaveragewinner,actualentryquoteshistoryabsent,soexecution'sspread/slippagecannotbeseparatedfromgapsandmonitorlatency. ConclusionoperationalKelly0. Validitypositiveexpectedreturnnotidentifiedbythreeheterogeneouslossesorsixselectedpaperreturns. Soundnesslimits sampling/censoring andregimes;0/3isnotfuturep=0. Countercasefirstrunlossesdonotdisprovenewstrategy; genuinelynewprospectivedatawouldchangeconfidence. Neverpooloperatorliquidationswithplannedstop/targetoutcomesasiftheywereidenticaltrials.

Premises1 NumPyseed20260910061 resamples6stressedgreenexitwholeeventreturnsinto50000ten-eventpaths,starting49.14. Theseareconditionalempiricalscenarios,not10tradesbySeptemberend orindependentfutureodds. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; DARDEN06audit1832.2 Fullreinvestmentnoinjectedgap terminal5/50/95=45.68044/53.10953/59.98258,lossfrequency19%,95thmaxDD12.76551%. InjectASSUMEDindependent1%chanceof-20%returnperevent:41.78709/52.58812/59.76240,loss26.59%,DD22.16006%. NeitherhazardnorgapcalibratedtoDRI; sensitivitynotforecast.3 Quarterbookexposureterminal5/50/95=48.30106/50.14046/51.67571withoutshock,47.37669/50.00579/51.63430withshock;zeroexposure49.14throughoutbeforeoperatingcosts. All8size/shockcellsrecorded.4 Observedtarget4/6,partial5/6,stop2/6;Wilson95win/target[.29999,.90323],partial[.43650,.96995]. Bootstrapcannotgenerateunseentails.5 GeneralempiricallogKellyunconstrainedcapital8.81465x,quarter2.20366x,cashcap1x,butuncertainty/executiongateapproved0. Binaryaveragepayoffapproxquarterrisk.081274 convertscapital3.38028x; distinguishriskfromnotionalandfromgeneraldistributionKelly. No margin contemplated. 20%hypotheticalgapfullfundloss9.828 exceeds8.5099accountrisk;assumedgapriskcap42.5495notworstcasebound. Conclusionzeroallocation,positivepointKellynotpermission. Strongcountercasefutureeventsresembleobservedwins; cannotknowthatfromsixselectedreturns. Monthly349.01shortfallabsentfrommodel.

Premises1 use onlypreentryindicators;greenexitstresspayoffsfromDARDEN06audit1832, source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all withSIPdaily.2 Positive20daymomentumtrainingN7mean-.56733%,testN4+1.53465%; trendSMA50positive trainN8-.18623%,testN3+1.43563%. Combinedtrend+momentumtrainN7-.56733%,testN3+1.43563%,latterCI[-.35844,3.07784]%.3 SPYabove200SMAtrainN7-.68158%,testN5+1.80542%; SPYbelowtrainN5+1.57002%,testN1-4.45028%. FavorabletestCIabove0inselectedN4/5groupsdoesnotestablishstablefilter:trainingdirectionreversesandmultiplecomparisonsunadjusted.4 ATR/cuttrainingmedian1.702676%:highvoltrainN6+.80897%,testN5+.98705%,testCI[-1.77498,2.75288]%;lowvoltestN1-.35844%notadistribution.5 CurrentSep9close209.42below20SMA219.0445and50SMA209.453,20day-4.33074%;notentrywindowSep17. Conclusionnoadoptedindicatorcombination,noholdoutrefit. ValiditysigninstabilityandsmallNblockcalibration; soundnessaffectedbyselectedevents/interdependence/currentvsfuturefundamentalregimes. Countercasetrueconditionaledgemayexist; requireprespecifiedprospectiveevents,notreweightingthese18.

Premises1 fixed audit1832 reuses original1376 dates:2022–24 training12,2025–Jun2026 chronological test6. Daily holdout was already known when execution variants were specified; this is a post-selection execution audit, NOT a fresh independent holdout. 18SECearningsdatesreverified;6testadvancenoticespreviouslyverified1299,only1/12trainadvancevintagesnowverified. CurrentAug27issuer confirmsSep24BMO https://investor.darden.com/news/news-details/2026/Darden-Restaurants-to-Release-Fiscal-2027-First-Quarter-Results-on-September-24-2026/default.aspx .2 BuyT5 09:30,forceT1 15:45open;1prior20ADRstop/1.5ADRtarget,at+1ADR sellhalf/movestopentry. FractionalRTHonly15minopenpriceproxy; gaps/overshoots fillobservedprice,notbarrier. 10bpfeesand10bpslipbaseline/25bpstressoneachfill. 2340RTHbars,90sessions,0missing;1427DRI+1427SPYdaily. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all .3 Vectorbtlongonlycashreconcilesmanualledgerincludingpartialfees andall18events. Trainbase+6.64856%,stress+2.87749%,DDstress8.30497%;testbase+6.35126%,stress+4.45405%,DDstress4.84462%,4/6wins,W2.34638%,L2.40436%,mean.76280%,bootstrap50kCI[-1.49818,2.52709]%. 5partials,4targetfinalexits,2stopfinalexits. Time-onlytestbase6.91174/stress5.00453%,barrierwithoutpartials7.70904/5.78762%;nonechosenafterseeingtest. Sixtrainingonlystop.75/1/1.25,target1.5/2ADRstressvariantsrange-7.82789to+4.74945%,allmeanCIsinclude0. Conclusionresearchwatch,operationalallocation0. Validitypositivepointpayoffdoesnotclearuncertaintygate. SoundnesslimitsN6/selectedissuer,reusedtest,11missingtrainnotices,tradebarsnotexecutablequotes,gridphaseassumed,noextendedhoursfractionalexit. Strongcountercasepositivecostedtrainingandtestmeritfuturepaperobservations,butnotpromotingnewfiltersorclaimingindependentreplication.

Premises1 Sep10Innate original notice confirmsSep17conference08EDT/14CEST, replacingearlieruncertain09ETreference: https://www.innate-pharma.com/media/all-press-releases/innate-pharma-host-conference-call-and-webcast-september-17-first-half-2026-financial-results-and-business-update . Firstfinancial-release minute unresolved; noSobi75mreceiptstatement. Currentpagevalid; actualjob172savedEND15/IPHAHTTP200 differsfrompriorjournalERRORdescription.2 FDX fiscalrecast https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048911/000104891126000108/fedexrecastexhibit991.htm changesyearendMay31toDec31effectiveJun1;7monthtransitionandFreightspinoff make assumedSep17historicalcalendarleadunsafe. No verifiedreplacementearningsdate obtained. Conclusion updateIPHAmonitor176, retainconditionalfinancingforecast; rejectFDXdate-basedentry. Validity: a conference schedulingupdatechangesreviewtime,notcashorstockpayoff. Soundness: issuer assertionsandboundedindexes; futureearlynewspossible. Countercase strongtrialfundingorFedExrestructuringmaycreatevalue,butcalendarprecisiondoesnotestimatepositiveexpectedreturn. Researchonly,zeroallocation.

Question: does Sobi remove financing pressure before September17 results, or merely move it into the trial? Start49.14fundcash/850.99equity, no holdings or queuedorders; goalrepeatablepreeventgains. Bindingconstraint: independentexecutableedge; fundamentaluncertainty: closingcash andretainedtrialcosts. Numberedpremises:1 Analysis1990 recoversAugust14 conditionalcombinedrunwayQ1 2028, supersedingAugust10upfront-onlyQ3 2027. Equitycompleted, Sobi75mreceiptstillunverified; Marchfinancialassetsnotcurrentcash. 2 Innateconductstrial; historical326participantdesign andlate2020s timeline2038 do notprovebudgetcoverage orfuturegap. Futuremilestones/royaltiesarestrongestcounterargumenttofinancingbearcase.3 Frozen1997calendar test:trainN12-29.10%,holdoutN6-10.46%,stress-13.11%; no positivecostedKelly, no independentpost-Sobi sample.4 Technical2025 medianUSD56.6k,25shareaffordability doesnotfixedge/liquidity.5 Simulation2026 historicaltailisnotriskbound, statistical2024regressionisnotcausalalpha. Conclusion fundamentalWATCH improves; tradingREJECT, proposedsize0. Validity: necessaryedgegatefails. SoundnessboundedbysingleissuersmallN, incompletefirstnewsarchive, dailyfill/+1Rlimitations,missingcurrentcash/fullcontract/currentdeck. Additionalprimarysearchesrepeatfinancefacts; stopratherthaninventreceipt, trialcostorapprovalodds. NoPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026057935/exhibit993.htm ; https://www.sobi.com/en/press-releases/sobi-enters-strategic-partnership-innate-pharma-license-lacutamab-t-cell-lymphoma-2472935 ; https://www.innate-pharma.com/media/all-press-releases/innate-pharma-releases-its-2026-financial-calendar ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IPHA,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Monitor17406UTCfollowup,165/168financial/conferenceretained; collector172remote04:15fullfooterverified, browserchallengeproperlyflagged. Lessons606–608, archive1797plusJSONwhitespacecorrection. Research~14min, reservedfinishused~4min, under42plan/45hard. No bookactionneededbefore06UTC.

Start state: $49.14 fund cash, $850.99 equity, no open/pending/closing positions. Goal: repeatable gains before a documented event; binding constraint is independent positive net payoff. 1 Date gate passes for September17 financials, first release minute unresolved; September14 conference and undated closing/other clinical news overlap. 2 Fundamental evidence improves: conditional combined runwayQ1 2028, with payment receipt and trial-cost sharing still unverified. 3 Price context is weak: close1.95 below20/50SMA,20day-9.30%, median turnover56.6k. 4 Frozen calendar test1997 fails training and six-event holdout; all18 historical entries fail the adopted1mturnover screen. 5 QuarterKelly0 is binding before49.14fundcap,212.7475positioncap or8.5099equityriskcap. Conclusion no proposal. Positive fundamental news alone cannot make all necessary gates true; the strongest counterexample is a new financing regime, which has no independently measured payoff cohort yet. Do not lower liquidity or cost assumptions to rescue it. Sources https://www.innate-pharma.com/media/all-press-releases/innate-pharma-releases-its-2026-financial-calendar ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026057935/exhibit993.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IPHA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .

Numbered premises:1 Aug10agreement exchanges conditionalcash for commercialrights and laterdevelopmentoption, withInnateconductingTELLOMAK3. 2 Aug14/19equityadds27.6mEURexpectednetand17.65mshares, fundingADCpriority. 3 ExistingPhase2 evidence and historicalrandomizeddesignare notcurrentPhase3results. Positive chain: firstclosingfunds trialstart/filing andimprovesfundingflexibility; secondpotentialacceleratedapprovalpermitsSobicommercializationwhileInnatekeepsmilestone/royaltyrights; thirdpaiduptake,ongoingPFSconfirmation,costsharingandnetdilutiondeterminepersharecash. Adversechain: firstclosingortrialdelayconsumescash; secondmilestonedeferral/expensescanrevivefinancingneed; thirdadditionaldilutionorprogramprioritizationcanreduceexistingholderupside. Who benefits: Sobigets stagedexposureandfutureoption, Innategets timeandresources, trialvendorsmaygetspend; vendorprofitorstockedgeunmeasured. Strongcounterargumentearlyroyaltiesandmilestonescouldbridgefuturecosts; thereforefundinggapnotassertedascertain. Fullcostschedule,optionconditionsandcurrentbudgetremainmissing. Historical2025deck326plannedparticipantsandlate2020stimelineillustratesdistinctiononly; notnewdatedcatalyst. Clinicalsourcesareissuerbiased, jointreleasescountonce. Nopeer/FUNDproposalwithoutpriceedge. Sources https://www.sobi.com/en/press-releases/sobi-enters-strategic-partnership-innate-pharma-license-lacutamab-t-cell-lymphoma-2472935 ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026057935/a260819_6k1.htm ; https://s28.q4cdn.com/864950573/files/doc_downloads/2025/10/251028-Lacutamab-KOL-event-deck-final.pdf .

Premise1 A clinical financing headline does not estimate stock-return tails. NumPy seed2026091004 after fixedtestbootstraps resamples50,000 draws from248 overlapping5-session OHLCblocks withinlast252SIPsessions. Terminalp05/median/p95=-15.06024/-0.56818/+17.73050%; lossfrequency54.094%. Full49.14 hypotheticalexposurep05P&L-7.40060 beforecosts, NOT a worst-casebound; noallocationapproved. Samplingfutureasrecentpastomitsunseenbinaryshocks andSobi-conditioned distribution. Premise2 Alternative deterministicfinancinggridusesassumedEURperUSD.8/.9/1.0 and monthlyuseEUR2/4/6m: newequity27.6m plusconditional75mUSD equals87.6–102.6mEUR, funding-only14.6–51.3months, middle95.1/4=23.775months. TheseFX/burnratesareassumptions, NOTcurrentquotes,currentburn,managementforecastoractualopeningcash. Excludesliabilities,taxes,fees ondeal,existingcash,milestonesandtrialcostchanges. Conclusion data cannotvalidate precise runway orlosslimit; actualcash andtrialbudgetneeded. Bindingconstraint remains independentpositivepayoff, quarterKelly0. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IPHA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026057935/exhibit993.htm .

Premises1 CompletedSep9 SIP adjusted close1.95,20SMA2.186,50SMA1.960094,20sessionreturn-9.30233%,ADR20.10406 andsimpleATR14.105614. Dailyturnovervolume*VWAP48,082.05,20daymedian56,610.23; old46,881.90 usesclose*volume, not conflicting feed. 2 OneADR/1.5ADR geometry atoldclose wouldbe1.84594/2.10609, gross1.5R, buttheseareillustrations NOTorders; actualentrychangeslevels andcostsreducepayoff. Fund49.14 allows25sharesbeforefees, notpermissiontobuy. 3 Negativecostedholdout1997, all18historicalmedianvolume<1m; no executablebidask/orderbook measured. Conclusionzeroapprovedsize, no inventedlive stop/target. Validityaffordabilitydoesnotimplyedge; soundnessdailyliquidityproxyomitsEuropeanordinarysharevolume anddoesnotprove49USDunfillable. Euronextmaybemoreliquid butvenue/FXnotvalidatedandcannottransferADSreturnsautomatically. Strongcounterargumentnewpartnerfundingcouldimprovetape; requireprice/liquidityandindependentpayoffratherthanlowerthreshold. Data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IPHA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .

1 The frozen six-event holdout1997 has barrier mean-1.61159%,95% empirical bootstrap interval[-6.34633,3.30274]%; 50,000 samples, NumPy seed2026091004. Small same-issuer observations and reused market periods limit independence; no population FDA hazard or post-Sobi probability inferred. 2 Time-only net returns compared with identical SPY windows: mean excess-4.10849 percentage points, correlation.401166,OLSbeta1.621565/intercept-5.07762% perwindow. Six observations are descriptive, not a stable factor model. No selection/refit follows these coefficients. 3 New ordinary shares17,647,059 versus94,084,210 prior total yields18.75666% share-count increase; existing ownership falls15.79420% after111,731,269 total. EUR2.4m issuance costs/30m gross=8%; net27.6m. Rates and totals are different concepts. 4 Live Catalyst ledger has3losses,2operator-censored exits; no observed mean winner. Therefore quarterKelly clipped0 under tested payoff and undefined for newfundingregime. Strong countercase financing changes the distribution; requires independent observations, not treating narrative as measured edge. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IPHA,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026057935/exhibit993.htm ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .

Executed node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols IPHA --strategy momentum --lookback20 --days1800 --stop-pct5 --target-pct7.5 (actualCLIspacesbetweenflags/values). 1157IEXbars,110trades,return-75.247754%,DD75.762795%,win25.454545%,average-1.150144%,buyhold-65.694683%. Sameas1941, nofreshindependentedge orOOSclaim. GenericCLI lacks explicitcostsandseparateholdout; stoppricefillsdo notvalidate15minvenue. It isdiagnosticonly; independentchronologicalcostedcalendarstudyrecordedseparatelyandalsofails. Nochangefromrepeatresult. Data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex&timeframe=1Day .

Premises1 note1774 frozenbeforeprices:18 advancecalendarreports2022–May2026,2022–24trainN12/2025–26holdoutN6, noeventselectedonreturn. Sourcesfiveissuerannualcalendarobservations19995–99; allbeforeCETopen, noAGM/futureevents.2 Buy5thUSprioropen, selllastpriorclose or1ADR20stop/1.5ADR20target; prior20only, gapopenprecedence,stopfirstintradayambiguity. vectorbt longonlycash,reinvestnonoverlappingtrades, fees10bp/side,slippage25bp(base)/50bp(stress). All72eventoutcomes reconciledcashformula and8portfolio totals; initialdefaultshortbugcaughtandcorrectedbeforerecording.3 Basebarriertrain-29.0994%,DD30.3031%;holdout-10.4636%,DD12.1874%,p33.3333%,W7.67464%,L6.25470%,mean-1.61159%,bootstrapCI[-6.34633,3.30274]%. Stressholdout-13.1098%;timeonlybase-15.1724%/stress-17.6795%. All8split/mode/costcellsnegative, rawquarterKelly0. Conclusionreject,notretune. Limitations:1issuer,N6,calendarrevision/earlypipelinearchiveincomplete,20daydollarvolall18<1m; notSobi-financing-conditioned cohort. Syntheticopen/close markDDdoesnotcaptureallintradayDD; dailytouchfills, fractionalabstractcapital/no+1Rpartialnotvenueexecution. Fees/slippageassumptions,actualquotesunknown. Counterexamplechangedfundingregimecouldalterfuturepayoff; needsindependentcohort,notinvalidationofnegativeobservedtest. Data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IPHA,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Inputs/results20000–17andcompanionaggregates; code /tmp/codex-run-EyESFK/ipha_test.py . Noorder.

Premises:1 Aug14 offering exhibit projects runway throughQ1 2028 using equity PLUSUSD75mSobi closing payment; this supersedesAug10Q3 2027 for thecombinedcase. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026057935/exhibit993.htm . 2 Aug19filing confirms equitycompletedAug18,EUR27.6mexpectednet; priorityADC development, notexclusivelylacutamab. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026057935/a260819_6k1.htm .3 Sobi/InnatejointAug10agreement givescommercialrights onpotentialacceleratedapproval andoptiontoassumefulldevelopmentafterpositivePhase3; InnateconductsTELLOMAK3. Source https://www.sobi.com/en/press-releases/sobi-enters-strategic-partnership-innate-pharma-license-lacutamab-t-cell-lymphoma-2472935 .4 LatestMar31financialassets25.4mEURinclude4.9mshortterm+10.4mnoncurrent; Pythoncashresidual10.1m, notcurrentcash. Source https://www.innate-pharma.com/media/all-press-releases/innate-pharma-reports-first-quarter-2026-business-update-and-financial-results . Conclusion replace an imminent-unfunded-company baseline with materiallyimprovedconditionalrunway; doNOTassertcompletionfunding oractual75mreceipt. Soundness: officialissuersclosesttocontractbutincentivized; jointcopiesnotindependent; fullcostschedule/currentbalance/closingdocumentmissing. Validity: runwayforecastcannotlogicallyimplyfullyfundedrandomizedcompletion. Counterargument futuremilestones/royaltiescouldfinancecompletion; correct, sofuturefundinggap isunknown ratherthancertain. NextSep17reportmustreconcileclosing,subsequentevents,cashdefinition,burnandtrialcommitments. Noapprovalprobability orstocktargetfromfundingheadline.

Start49.14fundcash/850.99equity,0holdings/queued;goalrepeatablepre-eventgains,bindingconstraintcostedindependentedge. Premise1 listingcensus13160non-testsecurities;7499nonETFidentifiers,543specialformat excluded,6956queried,6577barsreturned,184staleexcluded ->6393fresh;2520price1–49.14/value>=1m. Raw145observationbatches19253–19475 preserveall6577roundeddatapoints; notcompleteUScommons/OTC/calendar. Premise2 toppriceleaderrejections:SUNEplant2027/28notdatedearnings;YMATF3notcalendar;FTFTlatest8Ksplitnotfuturedate;IRDdataalreadyreleasedSep9;ODDearningSep9past;PHGEraw945%splitartifact becomes4.516%;NUVLacquiredJuly15byGSK. PrimaryURLs in19174/19176/19358/19671/19744–46. Premise3 EPMnewSep15AMCtest1928train-6.551%,N6stress+3.823%meanCI[-1.779,3.065] rejects. IPHASep17confirmedreport,updatedSobi75mconditionalcash1969 and27.6mEURraiseimprovefundamentals butSep9dollarvol46.9k/median56.9kfail1mscreen; noindependenteventedge. Premise4 overseas6quotechecksmixedFX/asof,UKBTRWSep16alreadytradingupdated;NXT/KGFexistingwatches;JPXfulltable/ASKUL/3038exactextractionincomplete andvenue/FXunvalidated. Crypto10pairchecknoqualifiedearnings/FDAedge;ETHtestnetOct6notmainnet. Conclusion noorder/FUNDproposal or fabricatedstops. Validity: missedopportunitiespossible, cashfollowsgate; soundnesslimitedsurvivorship,missingcalendar/identifier/FX/15minexecution. Newbreadthdidchangeanswer'swatchlist, notriskallocation. Discoverycapped12minwithgapsnamed;reservingfinishnotspentonexhaustivemarketclaim. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.barrattredrow.co.uk/news/2026/fy26-trading-update ; https://ethereum-magicians.org/t/all-core-devs-consensus-acdc-186-september-3-2026/29496 .

Supersedes Maynegotiations-only context in1891/19169. Premise1 Aug10jointprimarySobi/Innateagreement promisesUSD75m ONCLOSING,upto40mnear-term and465mfurthermilestones/option, tiereddouble-digitroyalties; closingconditionsinclantitrust remain. Premise2 InnateconductsTELLOMAK3,Sobigetsglobalcommercialrights uponpotentialacceleratedapproval/eligibleglobaldevelopmentrightsafterpositiveP3. Premise3 Aug18equityraise27.6mEURexpectednet distinctfromUSDconditionalpayment andMarch25.4mfinancialassets. Conclusion materiallybetterfundingframeworkthanMay; precise currentcash/receipt/burn/retainedvalue stillunknown, noforcedcashrunwaybearcase. Boundaries:580mheadline75+40+465 isNOTcash today; noUSD/EURsum orprobability invented. Strongcountercase signedpartnershipcouldsupportstockrunup; executablepriceedge andliquidity stillfail (Sep9USD46.9ktrading,20daymedian56.9k). Consequence1 Sobi absorbscommercialrole,2 Innatecangeartrialspendingtocommittedfundingifcloses,3 retainedroyaltyeconomicsdependonsuccess/termsratherthanfullproductrevenue. Source https://www.sobi.com/en/press-releases/sobi-enters-strategic-partnership-innate-pharma-license-lacutamab-t-cell-lymphoma-2472935 ; https://www.innate-pharma.com/media/all-press-releases/innate-pharma-enters-strategic-partnership-sobi-license-lacutamab-t-cell-lymphoma . Sep2conference source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026059963/exhibit991-260902.htm confirmsSep14 16:30EDT; clinicalnewdata notpromised. No proposal.

EPM conditionalchain:1 mineral sellers exchangefuturecash for16mfundedpartlynewequity;2 projectedassetcash3.9m mustclearcorporate/financingcostsanddividends;3 existingholdersbenefitonlyif per-sharecash improvesfasterthandilution. Reverse: lowerprices/operatorcompletiondelays reducecoverage andforcecapitalallocationchanges. IPHA:1 Aug27.6mexpectednetfundsIPH4502development;2 programprioritization/runway improve butnewordinarysharesdilute;3 futurepartnership/clinicalvaluecapture depends ontrialdata, notthefinancingheadline. Reverse: fasterburn/failedtrialsconsumeaddedrunway. GSK:1completedNUVLacquisitiontransfersassets;2Sept18decisionaffectslauncheconomicsinsideGSK;3 parentstockresponseis dilutedbybroaderfranchise, noNUVLstandalonerunup. SUNE:1announcedplantcapacityrequiresfunding/construction;2 executionthroughlate2027/2028 determinesusableoutput;3 cashreturnsdependonpaidcellorders/margins notSep9pricevelocity. These areinferences, noprobabilitiesassigned. Who benefits:assetsellers/placementagents receivecashnow;stockholdersbearcommodity/trial/buildrisk. Counterargument operatingexecutioncouldsurpassassumptions; mustmeasureactualcashandcostedstockedge. Sources https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-closes-strategic-acquisition-midland-basin ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026057935/a260819_6k1.htm ; https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/gsk-completes-acquisition-of-nuvalent-inc/ ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/22701/000121390026098099/ea030487601ex99-1.htm .

Premise1 1928costed6eventholdout haspositivepointestimate buttrainingnegative andmeanCIcrosseszero. Premise2 NumPy seed2026091003 resamples6stressreturns independently50000paths of10events,initial49.14,rawholdoutquarterKelly.063805896 per event. Mean49.352116,p05/50/95=48.845875/49.352178/49.856086,loss24.838%. Zero simulatedpaths reach398.15 (49.14+349.01contextshortfall), butthisisNOTa22dayforecast orproofimpossible: eventfrequency, unseen tails,dependence, costs andregimes unmodeled. Conclusion actualapprovedallocation0. Validity: optimisticresampling doesnotrepairnegative training oruncertainty; soundnessonlyconditionalempiricalsample. Countercase independentprospectivehistorymayincreaseconfidence; don'tretune currentholdout. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; actualissuerdates19625.

Executed required CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols EPM,IPHA --strategy momentum --lookback 20 --days 1800 --stop-pct 5 --target-pct 7.5. Premise1 code usesIEX/defaultadjustment andnoexplicitfee/slippage;1157bars,110trades. Premise2 gross return-75.2478%,drawdown75.7628%,win25.4545%,average-1.1501%. Conclusion generic momentumdiagnostic rejected; noindependentOOS claim andnotusedforsizing. Independentchronological eventtest1928 usesSIP/vectorbt,costs andfrozen2024train/2025–26holdout; thisCLIcannot validatecatalysttrade. Countercase differentiated preeventrule mayperform differently, which1928testsseparately. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex&timeframe=1Day .

Executed required CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols EPM,IPHA --strategy momentum --lookback 20 --days 1800 --stop-pct 5 --target-pct 7.5. Premise1 code usesIEX/defaultadjustment andnoexplicitfee/slippage;1236bars,109trades. Premise2 gross return-51.8445%,drawdown67.3506%,win32.1101%,average-0.5521%. Conclusion generic momentumdiagnostic rejected; noindependentOOS claim andnotusedforsizing. Independentchronological eventtest1928 usesSIP/vectorbt,costs andfrozen2024train/2025–26holdout; thisCLIcannot validatecatalysttrade. Countercase differentiated preeventrule mayperform differently, which1928testsseparately. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex&timeframe=1Day .

Premise1 frozen1722 prior tocomputingreturns: buyT-3open/sellT-1close beforeactualissuerdates19625;preferredstop1prior20ADR,target1.5ADR.2024train4,2025–May2026holdout6,adjustedSIP. Fees5bp/side,slip10bpbase/25bpstress. DailyH/Lstop-first if both;gapstop atmin(open,stop); targetconservative. Vectorbt twofillobservationsperevent reproducescostedledger; notnative15min,+1Rpartial/BE,fullintradayDD or executablefills. Premise2 preferredtraining-5.422920%base/-6.551066%stress. Holdoutbase+5.708773%,stress+3.823032%;stresswins4/6,avgwin2.643210%,avgloss3.262591%,mean.674609%;50000seed2026091002 bootstrapmeanCI[-1.778946,3.065121]%. Event-closeDD3.668236%;vectorbtsampledDD3.956487% (differentmarkgrid); neitherworstintraday. Premise3 all12offset3/5,stop0/1/1.5,costbase/stress variants losttraining; no winnereligible. Time-onlyT3stressholdout+10.456184% cannotbe selectedafterseeingholdout orignore mandatoryexits. Conclusion REJECT live;rawholdoutquarterKelly.063806 is descriptive, approved0 becausefailedtraining/uncertainty/execution. Strongcounterargumentchangedroyaltymix may make2024stale; needsprospectiveproof notretrospectivedeletion. Datesretrospectivelyverified; advanceannouncement/earlynews/dividendexecutioncomplete audit remainsgap. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=1Day ; https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-events/news-releases ;19625actualdateURLmap. FutureSep15AMCsource https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 .

Premise1 OLS on252latest matched daily adjustedreturns: EPM alpha-.243994%/day,SPYbeta.045827,XLEbeta1.011687,R2.275285; IPHAalpha-.003762%,SPYbeta1.634852,XLEbeta.171132,R2.043649. These are contemporaneous descriptive coefficients, no causal/event prediction or significance claimed. Premise2 fresh6393securities,6389two-dayreturns Sep8–9 median-.88665%,p05-6.9450,p95+3.5162. Universe currentlist survival/identifier/missingbar biases persist; preferred/warrants can remain. Premise3 own3closedtrades0wins mean-16.380601%,twooperatorliquidations; averagewinner undefined so cannot calibrate profitable ownedge. Conclusion no evidence merely being affordable/beta-exposed creates preeventalpha. Countercase company-specific news can overwhelm sector; need independently costed event sample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=1Day ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; listing URLs19164. Distinguish6eventholdout positive pointestimate fromuncertainty inrecorded backtest; no pooledcrossfundodds.

Premise1 Sep9completedSIP EPM3.69,SMA20=3.6365,SMA50=3.6822,RSI14=51.84,20sessionreturn-2.122%; conflicting indicators do not supply a directional edge. ADR20=.11124 (3.0146%), so1–1.5ADR target distances .11124–.16686 are descriptive scale, notorders ordefended expectancy. Premise2 IPHA1.95 belowSMA20=2.186,RSI43.626,ADR5.3364%,20sessionreturn-9.3023%; mediandollarvolume56,938 andSep9 46,882 fails frozen1m discoveryfloor. Premise3 overnightstops checked15min can gap; neither dailybar proxy norwhole-sharelot guarantees1%riskbound. Conclusion EPMwatch/IPHAliquidityreject; no targetwidening to satisfyprofitshortfall. Countercase a highvolume release could changeIPHAexecution but requiresfreshspread/depth andnewindependentedge. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM,IPHA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; EPMdate https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 .

Premise1 EPM Q3 March31 OCF3.5m-capex1.6m=1.9m versus4.3m dividends:44.19% coverage,2.4m deficit before acquisitions. Premise2 Aug20 acquisition16m buys projected3.9mNTM assetcash at4.10256x but excludesG&A and assumes75oil/3.50gas/development; Aug19offer3.7mshares@$3.25 adds12.025mgross. Asset effectiveAug1 is AFTER June30 report period; Sep15financials cannot include its full subsequent cash benefit. Premise3 IPHA March25.4mcash includes10.4mnoncurrent financialassets; Aug18closed financing adds27.6mexpectednet, notcurrentcash25.4+27.6. No new ADSs and newordinaryshares barredfromADSdeposit, so fungibility cannot be assumed. Conclusion both have credible dated reporting events but no independently validated price edge or precise currentEV/FCF valuation. Strongcountercase EPM restoredproduction androyalty mix could improveper-sharecash; IPHAfinancing removes near-termconstraint andclinicaldata couldhelp. What would move prior: periodmatchedFCFcoveringdividend withoutnewfunding andpositivecostedregimehistory forEPM; IPHApostraisebalances/fullpipeline/actualeventhistory. Sources https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-reports-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-results ; https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-closes-strategic-acquisition-midland-basin ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026057935/a260819_6k1.htm . Validity: financialconstraints do notprove negativeprice returns; only support withholding an uncalibrated trade. Soundness: issuerforwardestimates notindependentverification.

Start49.14fundcash,850.99equity,zero holdings/pending verified18633; goal repeatablepre-eventgains, bindingconstraint independently positive executableedge. Premises1–3:1804 failed costed samples/zeroKelly;1803 newKFYrecast and recoveredAVO feed do not establish priceedge;1805 datecertainty doesnotbound binarygaps. Therefore no proposals or exit adjustments. Validity follows mandate; soundness limited selectedsmallN, incompleteearlynews/fullpipeline/valuation coverage and sparseexecution history. Strongcounterargument cashmisses opportunities; no calibrated probability/win/loss supplied. No new test warranted for unchanged rejected rule, CLI1688 and costed vectorbt1158/1677 remain frozen. Monitor153resolved,02reviewandAVOOct8reviewarmed,137/22andfivejobsretained. SourceURLs in1803–07/18628–33; no orders. Journalphase00:02:51 within31minplan/45hard. No separatebook justified.