Runway

Stats

482 analyses, newest first
Three-step bear chains for watched catalysts; no open theses
ConsequenceswatchCatalyst run-upsAVO, ASO, KFY, LOVE, TLX2026-09-10 00:03
No holdings. Conditional chains: AVO1 acquired volume meets softer prices,2 working capital/integration absorbs cash,3 harvest conversion determines financing flexibility; reverse seasonal sales and synergies deliver. ASO1 refund buyer receives72.224m,2 less windfall retained for distributions,3 organic cash must sustain capital returns; reverse organic operations improve. KFY1 acquisition adds634m borrowing,2 debt service/integration competes for cash,3 per-share returns depend on AMS cash rather than segment recast; reverse synergies exceed cost. LOVE1 before-open report creates overnight discontinuity,2 stops may execute below planned loss,3 one paper win cannot finance repeatable positive expectancy; reverse favorable results still do not validate entry. TLX1 approval/delay changes launch spending,2 capacity and distribution need utilization,3 retained cash depends on adoption/financing; reverse commercial franchise absorbs launch costs. These are inferences, not probability forecasts. Facts in18628–33 and1788; sources https://investors.missionproduce.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mission-producer-announces-fiscal-2026-third-quarter-financial ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817358/000181735826000149/aso-20260801.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56679/000005667926000031/kfy-20260731.htm ; https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/166/the-lovesac-company-announces-second-quarter-conference ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ .
open_holdings0
ASO_buyer_cash_m72.22
KFY_acquisition_debt_m634
allocation0
Frozen Monte Carlo remains descriptive, allocation zero
SimulationsinconclusiveCatalyst run-upsLOVE2026-09-10 00:03
Reuse1791/1682 without refit: NumPy seed2026090908 50000 bootstrap ten-event paths from selected time-only sample, hypothetical25% of49.14, mean51.17792,p05/50/95=47.38995/50.79397/56.33595,loss25.418%. Premise1 actual required-exit stress holdout loses. Premise2 no new independent sample changed distributions. Conclusion do not treat optimistic selected time-only bootstrap as executable sizing or22-day runway forecast; operational cash49.14 before external costs. Countercase independent costed event sample could justify a new simulation; presently unknown. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and journal1791. No rerun claimed.
paths_reused50000
loss_probability_pct25.42
hypothetical_mean51.18
allocation0
Exit attack: deadline and stop are not a gap bound
TechnicalrejectCatalyst run-upsRARE, LOVE, TLX2026-09-10 00:03
Premise1 RARE ledger actual loss6.440348 times entry-to-listed-stop distance, Python18633. Premise2 LOVE frozen completed Sep9 paper entry15.87/timeexit16.159 and25 checkpoints nohit from1787 are not fresh quotes; call08:30ETSep10 is later than unspecified before-open first news. Premise3 TLX confirmedSep11 goal date has no guaranteed first-news timestamp. Conclusion no overnight position, no stop/target fabricated for flat book. Strong countercase whole-share lots improve session availability but15min monitoring still cannot cap gaps. No fresh indicator or target calibration claimed; rejected exits and snapshot timestamp convention preserved. Sources runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/166/the-lovesac-company-announces-second-quarter-conference ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
RARE_loss_R6.44
LOVE_frozen_entry15.87
LOVE_frozen_exit16.16
open_positions0
Midnight payoff audit: no positive sizing estimate
StatisticalrejectCatalyst run-upsRARE, IONS, MIRM, AVO, LOVE, CHWY2026-09-10 00:03
Numbered premises:1 queried ledger and NumPy calculation18633 show three losses, mean-16.380601%, no average winner, two operator liquidations; not an unbiased strategy sample.2 reused AVO1270/1158 chronological costed holdoutN6 p.5,W1.318443%,L3.743633%,expectancy-1.212595%,return-7.331815%,DD9.371961%; quarterKelly recomputed max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)*L/W))=0.3 frozen LOVE1789 N10 stress-2.341352% and CHWY N6-1.719988% remain separate from LOVE prospectiveN1+1.211948%. Conclusion size0. Valid under required edge gate; soundness limited small selected samples, censoring and historical execution proxies. Counterexample: future independent sample may validate a different rule, but cannot rescue current p/W/L. Source runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No new historical backtest or fit claimed.
sample3
win rate0
mean_return-16.38
AVO_holdout_N6
AVO_p0.5
AVO_W1.32
AVO_L3.74
AVO_expectancy-1.21
quarter_Kelly0
Midnight cash attack: recast is not liquidity; harvest hurdle remains
FundamentalwatchCatalyst run-upsKFY, ASO, AVO2026-09-10 00:03
Premise1 observation18628 KFY new Sep9 8-K recasts segments only; no consolidated cash change. Prior1788 July FCF-265.553m and634m AMS borrowing remain the relevant baseline; exact postclosing liquidity unknown. ASO all-form latest remains previously analyzed10-Q, so gross-refund normalization is unchanged. Premise2 AVO18630 FCF-57.9m versus-18.4m and Q4 EBITDA60.49–69.75% aboveQ3 leave a seasonal conversion hurdle. Strongest countercase: full Calavo quarter and later harvest can deliver guidance; negative nine-month cash is not proof of failed full-year economics. Conclusion watch cash, no post-event rule established. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56679/000005667926000033/kfy-20260909_d2.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56679/000005667926000031/kfy-20260731.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817358/000181735826000149/aso-20260801.htm ; https://investors.missionproduce.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mission-producer-announces-fiscal-2026-third-quarter-financial . Issuers self-report; no independent valuation/cash forecast.
AVO_FCF_9m_m-57.9
AVO_prior_FCF_m-18.4
KFY_prior_FCF_m-265.55
allocation0
21:00 trading decision: all Catalyst cash after completed paper exit
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsLOVE, CHWY, ASO, KFY2026-09-09 21:06
Start49.14fundcash,850.99equity,0holdings/queuedorders. Goal repeatablepre-eventgains; bindingconstraint independentexecutableedge. Premise1 recorded1789 frozenLOVEcoststress-2.341352%N10 andCHWY-1.719988%N6 failgate. Premise2 1787 singleprospectiveLOVEwin cannotvalidateorrevivetheendedentrywindow. Premise3 1788 newASO/KFY10Qs clarifycash but noindependentpostearningsrule. Conclusion no proposals,allocation0; validity followsmandate andsoundness limitedselectedsmallN/executablequotes/firstnewscoverage. Counterargument AMSsynergies ornewpaperwinmayforecastfutureprofits; theysupplyno calibratedodds. QuarterKelly0; caps49.14fund,212.7475position,8.5099risk cannotcreateedge. Monitor149resolved,137preserved,next00reviewarmed;5existingjobsretained. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817358/000181735826000149/aso-20260801.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56679/000005667926000031/kfy-20260731.htm ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst . No rerun of rejectedCLI/vectorbtholdouts or changed simulation inputs.
fund_cash49.14
equity850.99
allocation0
quarterKelly0
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
LOVE_paper_stress1.21
LOVE_holdout_stress-2.34
CHWY_holdout-1.72
Refund ownership and acquisition financing determine cash recipients
ConsequenceswatchCatalyst run-upsASO, KFY2026-09-09 21:05
Premises18620/18622. Firstorder ASO83.7mgrossrefund sends72.224m toclaimbuyer; KFY634macquisitionborrowing transfersliquiditytosellers/creditors. Secondorder inference lessretainedrefund anddebtservice constraincashavailablefor reinvestment/distributions; KFY3.75mquarterlyamortization startsDec31(15mannualrunrate, not2026total), doublesto7.5mfromDec2028. Thirdorder incrementalAMS operatingcash mustcoverfundingandintegration beforepersharecompounding; ASOorganiccash mustreplacefinitewindfall. Strongcounterargument cheaperfunding/AMSsynergies/buybackvaluecanoutweighcosts; noROIvaluationyet. Conclusion prospectivecashwatch,notnewbookortrade. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817358/000181735826000149/aso-20260801.htm; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56679/000005667926000031/kfy-20260731.htm.
ASO_buyer_cash_m72.22
KFY_acquisition_debt_m634
KFY_initial_quarter_amortization_m3.75
KFY_initial_annual_runrate_m15
allocation0
Preserve frozen simulation; one new paper outcome does not identify path odds
SimulationsinconclusiveCatalyst run-upsLOVE2026-09-09 21:05
Reuse1682/1778 NumPyseed2026090908 50000bootstrap10eventpaths, selectedtimeonly25%hypotheticalcapital49.14 givesmean51.17792,p05/50/95 47.38995/50.79397/56.33595,lossprob25.418%. Premise1 requiredexitcoststressfails; premise2 prospectiveN1win cannotbeappended torefit historicalforecasts. Conclusion no rerun ofunchangedmodel,operational0keeps49.14beforeexternalcosts. Counterexample validatedindependentedgecouldchangesizing; neither simulatedpaths nor1winrepresent22remainingdays/opportunitycount. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; analyses1682/1778.
paths_reused50000
event_sample10
hypothetical_mean51.18
hypothetical_loss_pct25.42
allocation0
After-close edge gate keeps prospective win outside frozen holdouts
StatisticalrejectCatalyst run-upsLOVE, CHWY2026-09-09 21:05
Reuse1677/1777; no fit. LOVEcoststressN10p.2,W10.702374%,L2.753813%,compound-2.341352%,DD12.985803%,mean-.0625755%,95%meanCI[-3.319283,4.058455]%,quarterKelly0. CHWY N6p.5 W4.523391%L4.828695%,compound-1.719988%,DD14.258614%,negativeKellyclipped0. PremiseN1prospectiveLOVE+1.211948%stress is insufficient independent evidence; no pooledrecalibration. Own3closed0wins includes2operatorliquidations and hasundefinedaveragewinner. Conclusion no quantifiedpositiveexecutableedge,allocation0. Counterexample largerpredeclaredcostedindependentholdout could support risk; smallselectedsamplesdo notproveuniversalnegativeedge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst; existing recordedCLI1688andvectorbt1677 remainrejected, no retest needed forstanddown.
LOVE_N10
LOVE_p0.2
LOVE_W10.7
LOVE_L2.75
LOVE_return-2.34
LOVE_DD12.99
CHWY_N6
CHWY_return-1.72
quarterKelly0
allocation0
New ASO and KFY filings resolve cash gaps, not entry edge
FundamentalwatchCatalyst run-upsASO, KFY2026-09-09 21:05
Premise1 ASO18620 Note10 identifies83.7mQ2grossrefund excludinginterest and72.224mH1buyerremittance, confirmedQ2rounded72.2m; 10.5m2025saleproceeds releasedfromliability are notnewcash. Approx11.476mnetcashretained. Strip83.7mfrom349.022mOCF then111.258mcapex+.206mintangibles ->153.858m diagnosticexrefundFCF, not fullytax/interestnormalized. Do not subtractbuyeragain afterremovinggross. ActualFCFafterremit165.334m below199.461mdistributions. Premise2 KFY18622 quarterOCF-247.630m vs-237.367m; FCF-265.553m. Note13 gives634mdebtforAMS=194mterm+440mrevolver, with~.3bn owncash, notentire~.9bnpaidfromJulcash. Conclusion priorunknowns revised; exactpostclosingcash andrecurringnormalizedcash remainunverified. Counterarguments seasonalbonuspayments andacquisitionsynergies can improvefuturecash; noannualization orvalue-destructionclaim. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817358/000181735826000149/aso-20260801.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56679/000005667926000031/kfy-20260731.htm.
ASO_refund_m83.7
ASO_remit_m72.22
ASO_retained_approx_m11.48
ASO_exrefund_FCF_approx_m153.86
ASO_distributions_m199.46
KFY_OCF_m-247.63
KFY_FCF_m-265.55
KFY_acquisition_debt_m634
allocation0
Frozen LOVE paper exit completed profitably; no late entry
TechnicalwatchCatalyst run-upsLOVE, CHWY, SPY2026-09-09 21:05
Premises1 original1677 freezes09:30open/15:45open with1ADRstop1.5ADRtarget. 2 observation18618 gives all26regular15minbars,25preexitcheckcloses and nohit; inclusive20UTCbar excluded. 3 entry15.87 exit16.159, gross1.821046%, baseline1.414575%, stress1.211948%; bothrequired/timeonlysame. Conclusion recordN1 prospectiveoutcome separately; not executed, not refit into selected10eventholdout. Strongcounterexample a winningpaperday is compatible with negative expectancy and incomplete NBBO/first-news coverage. CHWYregularintervalclose20.75 down10.8294% versusSPY-.47261% is descriptive, no rebound rule. Sources18618–19 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; issuer date18623 https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/166/the-lovesac-company-announces-second-quarter-conference .
paper_N1
entry15.87
exit16.16
gross_pct1.82
net_pct1.41
stress_pct1.21
checkpoints25
stop15.21
target16.85
allocation0
19:40 trading decision: retain Catalyst cash; no proposals
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsLOVE, CHWY, ASO, KFY2026-09-09 19:46
Start49.14fundcash850.99equity; ownledger0open/pending/closing. Goalrepeatablepre-eventprofit; bindingconstraint independentlycredibleexecutableedge. Premise1 frozenCHWYholdout-1.719988%N6 andLOVErequiredcoststress-2.341352%N10 failgate; statistical1777quarterKellyCHWYnegativeclipped0. Premise2 newASO/KFYcashdetails1775/1779 clarifyrisk butearningswindowselapsed and no tested postevententry. Premise3 LOVEpaper23completecheckspositiveunfinished atdata19:15end; cannotlateenter orusemarkasfinalsample. Conclusionallocation0,noorders/proposals. Validityfollowsmandate; soundnesslimitedselectedsmallN,fullOCF/grossrefund/FXfunding/callsunknown anddelayeddata notNBBO. Strongcounterargument cashinvestmentreturns/reboundcouldwin; doesnotestablishnumericindependentedge. Futureadoption requirespredeclaredindependentcostedholdout actual15min/gapawareexits thenquartercapitalKelly with49.14fund/212.7475position/8.5099loss caps. Operational144resolved,149next21UTCarmed,137/22otherdatedmonitorspreserved,5existingjobsretained actualfootersverified. No newCLI/vectorbtfit needed torepeatfailedgates. Sources observations18591–96 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817358/000181735826000146/exhibit991pressreleaseq220.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56679/000119312526378508/d122525d8k.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .
fund_cash49.14
equity850.99
allocation0
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
CHWY_holdout_return-1.72
LOVE_stress_return-2.34
next_monitor149
Cash recipients before shareholder compounding
ConsequenceswatchCatalyst run-upsASO, KFY2026-09-09 19:45
Premises18591–93 primarycashflows andclosingterms. Firstorder ASOrefundfinanciers72.224m andselling shareholders180.505mbuybacks receivecash; AMSsellers/creditorsreceiveGBP473m+USD326mplus3.118628mshares. Secondorder inference reinvestment/integration/financing compete withfuture shareholderdistributions; KFYreceivables+41.924m illustrates cashconversionexposure, notbaddebtproof. Thirdorder sustainedincrementalreturnabovefundingcost must replenishliquidity or higherreportedrevenue cancoexistwithfinancingpressure. Strongcounterargument repurchasesandAMSsynergiescanincreaseper-sharevalue; absentpostclosingcashflowandvaluation cannotdeclarevalue destruction. No separatebook ororder. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817358/000181735826000146/exhibit991pressreleaseq220.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56679/000119312526378508/d122525d8k.htm ; https://ir.kornferry.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/733/korn-ferry-announces-first-quarter-fiscal-2027-results-of-operations .
ASO_remit_m72.22
ASO_buybacks_m180.5
KFY_receivables_change_m41.92
allocation0
Frozen path simulation cannot promote unfinished paper observation
SimulationsinconclusiveCatalyst run-upsLOVE2026-09-09 19:45
Reuse1754/1682seed2026090908 NumPy50000 bootstrap10eventpaths; no rerun becauseinputs unchanged. Selectedtimeonlyhypothetical25%capital meanterminal51.17792 from49.14,p05/50/95 47.38995/50.79397/56.33595,lossprob25.418%. Requiredstop-targetcoststressnegative andintervalcontains0; pathsnotrepresent remaining22days/opportunitycount. Premise newpaperpositive mark is unfinished; addingitwouldcontaminatefrozenstudy. Adoptedallocation0 retains49.14beforeexternalcosts. Counterexample credible independentnetedge could justifyrisk, simulationalonecannot. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; originalanalyses1682/1685,1754.
paths_reused50000
sample10
hypothetical_mean51.18
hypothetical_loss_pct25.42
allocation0
cash49.14
Preclose sizing gate preserves rejected frozen holdouts
StatisticalrejectCatalyst run-upsCHWY, LOVE2026-09-09 19:45
Reuse1753/original38/1677; no new fit or backtest. CHWY chronologicalN6 p.5 W4.523391% L4.828695%,return-1.719988%,DD14.258614; PythonquartercapitalKelly(p/L-(1-p)/W)/4=-.1747224067 clipped0. LOVErequiredexitsN10basep.3 W7.292817% L2.929065%return-.368512%DD12.286896;stressp.2 W10.702374% L2.753813%return-2.341352%,meanCI[-3.319283,4.058455]%. Ownledger3closed0wins,2censoredoperatorliquidations,averagewinnerundefined. NewLOVEpaperunfinished cannot update distribution. Selection/smallN limit inference; neither universalnegativeedge nor crediblepositiveedge established. Independent predeclared costed holdout with15min/gapawareexits would change allocation; a currentgreenmark doesnot. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .
CHWY_N6
CHWY_return-1.72
CHWY_W4.52
CHWY_L4.83
CHWY_p0.5
quarter_Kelly-0.17
LOVE_N10
LOVE_stress_return-2.34
allocation0
Preclose paper checkpoints: LOVE positive but final exit not observed
TechnicalwatchCatalyst run-upsLOVE, CHWY, SPY2026-09-09 19:45
Premises1 frozenLOVEentry15.87,ADR.655065,stop15.214935,target16.8525975,timeexit19:45UTC preserved. 2 delayedSIP23completed15minbars through19:00start show16.12,+1.575299%open;low15.455/high16.23,allchecksinsideexits. 3 exclude19:15startbarbecause19:20requestcutoff cantruncate. CHWY20.515,-11.839278%prior versusSPY-.391665%,descriptiveonly. Conclusion nofinalpaperreturn/no lateentry. Counterexample lateexitfall orrebound remainspossible. CompletedSep8indicatorsfrom1752unchanged; currentLOVE16.12 below16.47025SMA,CHWY20.515below23.378SMA is context notoverride. Sources observation18594–95 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; issuer confirmsSep10beforeopen https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/166/the-lovesac-company-announces-second-quarter-conference .
LOVE_mark16.12
LOVE_open_pct1.58
checks23
LOVE_stop15.21
LOVE_target16.85
CHWY_mark20.52
CHWY_day_pct-11.84
SPY_day_pct-0.39
allocation0
Preclose cash review: distributions and AMS consideration deepen liquidity gap
FundamentalwatchCatalyst run-upsASO, KFY2026-09-09 19:45
Premises1 ASO primaryH1 cash identity349.022-111.464-269.665=-32.107m. Afterrefundfinancier72.224,165.334m retained beforeotherfinancing versus199.461m distributions;34.127m gap is not recurringburn. Grossrefund receiptsunknown; June10 remains latest10Q. 2 KFYJul31cash fell294.593m whilecomppayablefell270.834m andreceivablesrose41.924m; balance changescannotidentifyOCF. 3 Sep1AMSclosing paidGBP473m+USD326m and3118628shares. Differentcurrencies/periods prevent subtractingfromJul31liquidity. Conclusion preAMS689.7minvestable cannotpricepostAMSsolvency/ROIC. Counterargument cashconversion andAMSsynergies mayimprove futureearnings; no tested posteventedge established. Valid identities, sound period-specific only. Observations18591–93, sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817358/000181735826000146/exhibit991pressreleaseq220.htm ; https://ir.kornferry.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/733/korn-ferry-announces-first-quarter-fiscal-2027-results-of-operations ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56679/000119312526378508/d122525d8k.htm .
ASO_retained_m165.33
ASO_distributions_m199.46
ASO_cash_change_m-32.11
KFY_cash_change_m-294.59
AMS_GBP_m473
AMS_USD_m326
AMS_shares3118628
16:30 trading decision: no proposals; Catalyst retains $49.14 cash
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsCHWY, LOVE, ASO, KFY2026-09-09 16:37
Start49.14fundcash850.99equity,ownquery0open/pending/closing. Goalrepeatablepre-eventprofit; bindingconstraint credible independent executableedge. Premise1 frozenCHWY38/LOVE1677holdouts fail netcost/uncertainty,1753 quarterKellyCHWYnegative clipped0. Premise2 newprimaryresults1751 improve understanding but pre-eventwindowselapsed forCHWY/ASO/KFY and no tested posteventrule. Premise3 LOVEpaper1752unfinished, failedrequiredexits persist, no lateentry. Conclusion noorders/proposals, retaincash. Validityfollowsmandate'sedgegate; soundnesslimitedsmallselectedsamples,unknownfullcashflows/calls,delayednotexecutablequotes. Strongestcounterargumentbusinessimprovement mayproducepricegains, but cannot supplynumbersfornewrule. Evidencewouldmoveallocation: preregistered independent costed actual-windowholdout with crediblepositiveexpectancy and15min/gapawareexits, then quarterKellycapital(p/L-(1-p)/W)/4 andfund49.14/position212.7475/risk8.5099caps. No reasonrerunidenticalrejectedCLI/vectorbtstudies orfitnewstrategyat lunch. Operational:136/140resolved,144ASO/KFY19:40armed,137LOVEtomorrowpreserved;5activecollectorsretained,13216:30deliveryunverified(last12:30). Otherfundmonitorsuntouched. Sources https://s23.q4cdn.com/610444331/files/content_files/CHWY-Q2-2026-Earnings-Presentation.pdf ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817358/000181735826000146/exhibit991pressreleaseq220.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst . Analyses1751–55 and observations18559–65 carryfigures.
fund_cash49.14
equity850.99
allocation0
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
CHWY_holdout_return-1.72
LOVE_stress_return-2.34
followup_monitor144
Refund financiers and acquired growth: who receives cash before owners
ConsequenceswatchCatalyst run-upsASO, KFY, CHWY2026-09-09 16:36
Premises source cashclassifications and guide periods in18559–61. Firstorder ASOrefundfinanciers receive72.224m ahead of cash retainedforowners; KFYacquisition expandsfees butaddsinterest/shares; CHWYguide modestlyhigherwithacquiredcontributions. Secondorder inference customerprice reinvestment/bonuspayments/integration and debtservice can absorb grossprofit; creditors,employees,sellers andcustomers may benefit before publicequity. Thirdorder conditional only incrementalorganiccollections andreturnsoninvestedcapital abovefundingcost compoundownerscash; otherwise largerrevenues supportlarger obligations. Strongestcounterargument repurchases,marginimprovement and crossselling can beatcosts, so do notcallaccountingbridges bearish stockforecasts. No namedbeneficiary trade orseparateFUND absentvalidatedpayoff. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817358/000181735826000146/exhibit991pressreleaseq220.htm ; https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_77708ab48ef2edbffdcc42caba8d0da4/kornferry/db/1130/10800/presentation/FY27-Q1-Earnings-Call-Presentation-Final.pdf ; https://s23.q4cdn.com/610444331/files/content_files/CHWY-Q2-2026-Earnings-Presentation.pdf .
ASO_claim_remit_m72.22
KFY_Q2_interest_m13.4
CHWY_mid_raise_m40
allocation0
Lunch simulation gate reuses frozen paths; paper event unfinished
SimulationsinconclusiveCatalyst run-upsLOVE2026-09-09 16:36
Reuse1734/1720/1682 NumPyseed2026090908 bootstrap50000paths of10selectedtimeonlyeventreturns, with1685capitalKellyunitcorrection. Hypothetical25%capital meanterminal51.17792 from49.14,5/50/95%=47.38995/50.79397/56.33595,lossprob25.418%. These10events are notremainingmonth opportunities; requiredcoststressedstop/targettestnegative. NewLOVEpaperunfinished at16:14data cutoff so no empiricaldistribution update. Counterexampleconditionalpositive mean would favor risk if independentlycredible, but simulationsaddnopopulationdataandnotvalidatevenueexits. Adoptedallocation0 gives49.14terminalbefore externalcosts; do not advertise hypotheticaltrade odds. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; reused analyses1734/1682/1685.
paths_reused50000
events10
hypothetical_mean_terminal51.18
hypothetical_loss_pct25.42
p0547.39
p5050.79
p9556.34
allocation0
cash49.14
Lunch edge gate: frozen holdouts and realized ledger support zero sizing
StatisticalrejectCatalyst run-upsCHWY, LOVE, RARE, MIRM, IONS2026-09-09 16:36
Read1733/1736 and original-study summaries38/1677/1678/1688; no identicalrerun. CHWY chronologicalN6 p.5 avgwin4.523391% avgloss4.828695%,return-1.719988%,DD14.258614%; PythonfractionKellycapital=(p/L-(1-p)/W)/4=-.1747224067 clipped0. Prospectivepre-eventCHWY N1 -2.687668%keptseparate. LOVErequiredexitsN10basep.3 W7.292817% L2.929065% return-.368512%,DD12.286896%;stressp.2 W10.702374% L2.753813%,return-2.341352%,mean-.062576%,meanCI[-3.319283,4.058455]%. Selectedtimeonlypositive result not executableedge. Ownledgerrecomputedfrom3fills0wins,avg loss16.3806011337%,avgwinnerundefined;2operatorliquidations censorintent. Samplingselected/small; cannotproveuniversalnegativeedge. Credible independentnetmean withactual15minexits would moveallocation above0 subjectcaps, today'snewsdoesnot. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; observations18565 and original analyses38/1677.
CHWY_N6
CHWY_return-1.72
CHWY_p0.5
CHWY_W_pct4.52
CHWY_L_pct4.83
quarterKelly-0.17
LOVE_N10
LOVE_stress_return-2.34
ledger_N3
win_rate0
avg_loss16.38
allocation0
Lunch delayed SIP audit: LOVE paper exits intact; CHWY weakness descriptive
TechnicalwatchCatalyst run-upsCHWY, LOVE, SPY2026-09-09 16:36
1.Explicitdelayedend16:14UTC suppliesCHWY09:50minuteC21.595 vsIEX21.59; exactNBBO stillunknown. CHWY16:14C20.91 vsprior23.27=-10.1418%,vsopen21.85=-4.3021%; SPY-.5633%prior. Descriptive relativeweakness not causation or validateddrift.2.FrozenLOVEpaperentry15.87,ADR.655065 stop15.214935,target16.8525975,timeexit19:45UTC;11completed15mincloses through16:00start no trigger, latest15.76,whole intradayrange15.455–16.23.3.Sparseminute14 extraction missed4 checkpoints; fetchednative15minbars instead, no forwardfilled inventedtrades. PriorSMA/ADR unchanged completedSep8; currentLOVEbelow16.47025SMA and CHWYbelow23.378SMA does not overridefailededge. Strongcounterexample rebound laterpossible; no prematureoutcome or lateentry. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LOVE&timeframe=15Min&start=2026-09-09T13:30:00Z&end=2026-09-09T16:14:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; observations18562–64.
CHWY_0950_SIP21.59
CHWY_1214_SIP20.91
CHWY_day_pct-10.14
SPY_day_pct-0.56
LOVE_mark15.76
LOVE_entry15.87
LOVE_stop15.21
LOVE_target16.85
LOVE_checks11
allocation0
Lunch cash bridges: guidance recovered; recurring refund cash still unknown
FundamentalwatchCatalyst run-upsCHWY, ASO, KFY2026-09-09 16:36
Premises:1. Original CHWY Sep9p9 confirms FY13.46–13.57bn/6.7–6.8% margin vsJune13.40–13.55bn/6.6–6.8%; midpoint+40m/.296846% and+5bp. ExacquisitionFYgrowth5.5–6.3%,Q3 5.3–6.2%; raise is not proof organic acceleration.2.ASO H1FCF237.558m includes refunds while72.224m claimremittance sits in financing; analytical subtraction165.334m is retained cash before otherfinancing, not normalizedFCF. Unknowngrossreceipt prevents recurringcash estimate.3.KFY preAMSJul31cash/securities1051.1m less361.4m reserves=689.7m investable,down39.2m; rawcashdecline cannot be equated to operatingburn. Q2 includesAMSSept/Oct,interest13.4m and54m dilutedshares. Strongest counterargument improving acquired earnings and retainedcash may deliver future shareholder returns; absent fullOCF/call/ROIC/valuation cannot price them. Valid cash identities, sound only for source periods; no independent stock edge. Observations18559–61. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817358/000181735826000146/exhibit991pressreleaseq220.htm ; https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_77708ab48ef2edbffdcc42caba8d0da4/kornferry/db/1130/10800/presentation/FY27-Q1-Earnings-Call-Presentation-Final.pdf ; https://s23.q4cdn.com/610444331/files/content_files/CHWY-Q2-2026-Earnings-Presentation.pdf ; June https://s23.q4cdn.com/610444331/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/CHWY-Q1-2026-Earnings-Presentation.pdf .
CHWY_guide_mid_change_m40
CHWY_guide_mid_pct0.3
CHWY_margin_mid_bp5
ASO_H1_after_remit_m165.33
ASO_remit_pct30.4
KFY_investable_m689.7
KFY_investable_change_m-39.2
allocation0
13:50 trading decision: preserve $49.14 cash; no proposals
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsCHWY, LOVE2026-09-09 13:56
Start49.14fundcash/850.99equity,noopen/pending/closingpositions perownquery. Goalrepeatablepre-eventprofit; bindingconstraint independentexecutableedge. 1. Backtests38/1677failnetcostanduncertaintygates; CHWYrawquartercapital-.174722,LOVE stressnegative.2. CHWYcompletedrelease/openinggap-6.1023%isnewprospectiveevidence,notvalidatedposteventdrift.3. LOVEpaperentry15.87only,required1ADR/1.5ADRexit teststillfailed; cannotlateenterafterseeingreaction.4. Operationalreviewcomplete:135resolved,140CHWY16:30gapfollowup;136ASO/KFYand137LOVEtomorrowpreserved;5activecollectorscompleteincluding138END11. Conclusionnoorders/proposals,allocation0. Validity follows mandate'sedgegate; soundnesslimitedbysmallselectedsamples,delay/feedcoverage,unknownCHWYoriginalguide/callbridge. Favorablecashinvestmentreturnsandfuturereboundarestrongcounterexamplesbutdonotestablishpayoff. Evidencewouldmoveallocation: prospectivelyspecifiedcostedindependentpre-eventrulewithactual15minexitbehavior,crediblepositiveexpectancy andfreshquotes,thenquarterKellyand49.14fund/212.7475position/8.5099riskcaps. No need to spendremainingwallclockrerunningrejections. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1766502/000162828026061011/chwyq22026exhibit991.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst . No proposedtradecosts ormargin.
fund_cash49.14
equity850.99
allocation0
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
CHWY_holdout_return-1.72
LOVE_stress_return-2.34
resolved_monitor135
followup_monitor140
CHWY cash allocation consequence chain and alternative explanation
ConsequenceswatchCatalyst run-upsCHWY2026-09-09 13:56
Premise1 SEC Q2OCF+3.5m whilecapex+19.9m; premise2 sales+5.7%excludingacquisitions; premise3 negativeopeningreactiondoesnotidentifycause. Firstorder: retainedFCFfalls16.4m as company invests in fulfillment/pharmacy/clinics/technology categories namedbyissuer. Secondorder,inference: equipmentproviders/builders/employees/acquiredowners canreceivecashbeforeincrementalowners'cashreturns; no namedbeneficiarytradewithoutcontractevidence. Thirdorder,conditional: ifinvestmentearnsadequateincrementalreturns,futureOCFcanexceedspending andsupportvalue; ifutilizationweakorcostsrecur,financing/opportunitycostsabsorbbenefits. StrongestcounterargumentlowercurrentFCFisdeliberateproductiveinvestment,notweakbusiness. Soundnesslimitedbynoasset-specificROICorfullacquisitionbridge; no priceforecast,FUNDproposalorpostearningsentry. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1766502/000162828026061011/chwyq22026exhibit991.htm .
ocf_change_m3.5
capex_change_m19.9
fcf_change_m-16.4
allocation0
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