OPEN910 trading decision: retain all $49.14 catalyst cash
Strategies reject Catalyst run-ups EPM, LOVE, TLX 2026-09-10 13:58
Startflat49.14fundcash/850.99equity;goalrepeatablepre-eventprofit;bindingconstraint independentlyvalidatedcostededge. Premises1 EPMactualpaperopen3.73recordedbut2246RR1.08023failsand1928trainingnegative/CIcross0.2 LOVEactualreleased,refundadjustmentsand12.414%openingdeclinedonotprovideposteventodds;2248priorguidetreatmentstillconditional.3 TLXexisting2167trainingnegativeandFDAeventcohortunvalidated;Sep11monitor193retained,notclaimcurrentdecisionverified.4 Freshconsolidatedexecutionquoteunavailable;delayedSIPonlyhistorical.5 Noopen/pending/closingpositions. Conclusion noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND;approvedquarterKelly0. StrongcountercasecheapwholeEPMlot,positiveholdoutandneworganicLOVEproducts maypay; neitherrepairsnecessarygates. Soundnesslimitedselectedhistory/unknownpubliccall,notuniversalnoedgeclaim. Reusedsimulation1942:50000conditional10eventpaths49.14rawfraction.063806,p05/50/95=48.845875/49.352178/49.856086,loss24.838%;not22dayforecast/nobinarytailproof. Indicators2172TLXtrendandcorrnotFDAodds; no completednewdailyreturnjustifiesrefit. Sources https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 ; https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/167/the-lovesac-company-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-2027 ; https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_09102026.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst . Resolved167/192,new200/201at16:30;20armed,noneoverdue. Existing5collectorscontinue; nooff-runtradablesignal. Analyses2246–49,lessons657–59. Shortfall349.01excludedfromsizing.
More fund_cash 49.14
equity 850.99
account_risk_ceiling 8.51
position_cap 212.75
approved_allocation 0
EPM_stress_RR 1.08
EPM_train_pct -6.55
LOVE_open_gap_pct -12.41
armed_monitors 20
new_orders 0
OPEN910 August producer costs constrain a furniture refund thesis
Consequences watch Catalyst run-ups LOVE, EPM 2026-09-10 13:57
Premises1 actualSep10BLSAugustrelease+.4m/m,+5.4y/y;exfoodenergytrade+.3/4.7,energy+4.2,diesel24.1,transportwarehousing2.3%. Julyheadline0→.1revisionfromAug13archive.2 LOVEQ2productmargin+250bp offsetinboundtariff/transport160bp,outboundwarehousing130bp; periodendsAug2soAugustPPInotexplanationofwholeQ2. Firstorder highertransportcostscanabsorbrefundcash. Secondorderpricepass-through/promotionsaffectfurnitureconversionandinventory. ThirdorderretainedFCF/shareholdervalue dependsdemandelasticityandsupplierterms; stocktargetcannotbecomputedfromPPI. EPMmaybenefitfromcommoditypricesbutaggregatedieselnotitsrealizednetbackorstockedge. Beneficiariesofrefundarecashconstrainedissuer/suppliers; ownersbenefitonlyifsellthroughretainscash. Countercasehedges/contracts/productmixmayinsulatecosts; consequencesconditional,no causalregressionorconsensussurpriseclaimed. Source https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_09102026.htm ; https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_08132026.htm ; https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/167/the-lovesac-company-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-2027 .
More PPI_mom_pct 0.4
PPI_yoy_pct 5.4
core_mom_pct 0.3
core_yoy_pct 4.7
energy_mom_pct 4.2
diesel_mom_pct 24.1
transport_warehousing_mom_pct 2.3
LOVE_productmargin_bp 250
LOVE_inboundcost_bp 160
LOVE_outboundcost_bp 130
allocation 0
OPEN910 LOVE guide comparison requires refund-definition bridge
Fundamental watch Catalyst run-ups LOVE 2026-09-10 13:57
Premises1 Sep10issuerQ2releaseexcludesIEEPArefundfromadjustedEBITDA;21mreceivedsplit20COGS/.3inventory/.7interest. ExrefundGM56%,Q2adjEBITDA-1.252m; priorFCF-23.633mretained22799.2 Q1issuer164outlookincluded3.6mrefundincludinginterestbutgenericnonGAAPdefinitiondidnotexplicitlyexcludeit.3 CurrentFYsalesmid700vs720(-2.7778%),EBITDA33.5vs40.5(-17.284%) nominal. Ifentireold3.6included,oldrestated36.9implies-9.2141%; thisisconditionalnotexactbecauseinterestpartandcallbridgeunknown. Conclusion nominalcutnotcleanorganiccut; realcashimprovesliquiditybutdoesnotproveacceleration. Strongcountercaseinnovations/productmixboostH2; requireorganicorders/cashandindependentpriceedge. Issuerpubliccallregistrationonly, no claimheardQ&A. Sources https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/164/the-lovesac-company-reports-first-quarter-fiscal-2027 ; https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/167/the-lovesac-company-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-2027 .
More refund_m 21
refund_COGS_m 20
refund_inventory_m 0.3
refund_interest_m 0.7
sales_guide_mid_m 700
old_sales_mid_m 720
EBITDA_mid_m 33.5
old_EBITDA_mid_m 40.5
nominal_EBITDA_change_pct -17.28
conditional_restated_change_pct -9.21
allocation 0
OPEN910 existing event edge remains unvalidated after actual open
Statistical reject Catalyst run-ups EPM, LOVE, TLX 2026-09-10 13:57
Reused frozenCLI/vectorbt backtests,notnewtests. Premise1 EPM1928all12trainingcellsnegative;preferredtrain-6.551%,holdout6+3.823%,p4/6,W2.6432%,L3.2626%,sampledDD3.9565%,bootstrapCI[-1.77895,3.06512]%. RawquarterKelly.063806descriptiveonly.2 LOVE1677stressN10p20%,W10.7024/L2.7538%,return-2.34135%,DD12.9858%,CIcross0 andeventalreadyreleased.3 TLX2167training-25.273%,holdout19+11.0352%,p9/19,W6.5854/L4.4908%,DD23.9874%,CI[-2.0924,3.5902]%,genericmomentumnotFDAcohort.4 Ownquerytrades3losses,2operatorliquidationscensored; cannot equatep0tofutureodds. Conclusion approvedquarterKelly0; oneprospectiveEPMentrynotfinishedoutcomeorindependentvalidation. Countercase regimechangecouldyieldpositiveedge, requiresnewprospectiveevidence,notholdoutretune. Sources runway:query_research?fund=catalyst (1928,1940,2234) ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
More EPM_train_pct -6.55
EPM_holdout_pct 3.82
EPM_N 6
EPM_p 0.67
EPM_W_pct 2.64
EPM_L_pct 3.26
EPM_CI_low -1.78
EPM_CI_high 3.07
LOVE_holdout_pct -2.34
TLX_train_pct -25.27
closed_losses 3
approved_Kelly 0
OPEN910 EPM actual paper entry fails net reward/risk for trading
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups EPM, LOVE, TLX 2026-09-10 13:57
Premises1 delayedSIP13:30Sep10minuteopenEPM3.73; historical20ADR.11124 reproducesfrozen1734.2 Fixedstop3.61876/target3.89686 gross2.9823/4.4735%, fees5bp eachway/slip10bp net+4.1605/-3.2729%,slip25bp+3.8485/-3.5627%;RR1.08023<1.5.3 ActualLOVEopen14.04vs16.03=-12.4142%,TLX12.1vs12.34=-1.9449%, descriptive not causalstockedge. Conclusion preservepaperdailyproxy1928 throughSep14close, noorder/targetwidening/retroactivepartials. RecentSIP403 not overcome by delayedhistoricalbars; no executableNBBO. Validity necessaryRRgatefails; soundness dependsassumedcosts andohlcproxy,realgapsmayworsenloss. Whole13EPMsharesfit49.14atopen butaffordabilityisnotedge. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM,LOVE,TLX&timeframe=1Min&start=2026-09-10T13:30:00Z&end=2026-09-10T13:35:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 .
More paper_entry 3.73
paper_stop 3.62
paper_target 3.9
ADR20 0.11
base_net_RR 1.27
stress_net_RR 1.08
LOVE_open_gap_pct -12.41
TLX_open_gap_pct -1.94
approved_allocation 0
PRE91012 final trading decision: cash, no supported orders
Strategies reject Catalyst run-ups TLX, LOVE, EPM 2026-09-10 12:38
Start49.14fundcash/850.99equity, no holdings orqueuedorders; goalrepeatablepre-eventprofit;bindingconstraintvalidatedexecutableedge. Premises1 primaryTLXdateSep11doesnotfixunknownFDAodds; noearlydecisionfoundinboundedissuerreview,newGa68panelnotPixclara.2 LOVE07ETreleased,21mrefundsupportsprofitbutcomps-1.9%/exrefundGM56%/H1FCF-23.633m; preeventwindowcomplete.3 Frozen2234auditedtests failtraining/uncertainty, currentIEXstale2233.4 No positionneedsexit/adjustment. Conclusion noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND, approvedquarterKelly0. Validity: necessarytradegatesnotmet; soundnesslimitedselectedsmallhistory/notuniversalproofnoedge. CountercasepositiveTLX19holdoutandrealLOVEcashpotentialupside warrantsresearch, notturnover. SourceURLs22786–94/22799/22800/22801; key https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ ; https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/167/the-lovesac-company-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-2027 . Completedreview22/183;192next13:50,193Sep11CPI/TLX/ZUMZ, EPM167retained. No new tests needed/trusted: existingCLI+vectorbt evidence retained,2173conditionalMonteCarlo unchanged because no newreturnobservations; cannot useitsmedian54.77asFDAodds. Fiveexistingjobsand20monitorscoverresearch, noorderqueued; noeligibleoff-run signal needingnewjob. PPIactualAugust/M-MCFT-CALcontent/TSMverificationgaps explicit, rearmed; no guessedmacrofigures. Lessons645–647,shortfall349.01excludedfromrisk.
More fund_cash 49.14
equity 850.99
approved_allocation 0
new_orders 0
TLX_train_pct -25.27
LOVE_stress_pct -2.34
EPM_train_pct -6.55
LOVE_H1_FCF_m -23.63
armed_monitors 20
PRE91012 frozen edge audit: positive cells do not authorize this session
Statistical reject Catalyst run-ups TLX, LOVE, EPM 2026-09-10 12:38
Trading run reuses prior tests, not a new experiment. Premise1 TLX2167 stressholdoutN19,p9/19,W6.5854%,L4.4908%,return11.0352%,DD23.9874%,CI[-2.0924,3.5902]%; training-25.273%,genericmomentum notFDAcohort. Premise2 LOVE1677stressN10,p20%,W10.7024%,L2.7538%,return-2.34135%,DD12.9858%,CI[-3.3193,4.0585]%; actualrelease endsrunup. Premise3 EPM1928N6,p66.6667%,W2.64321%,L3.26259%,holdout+3.823%,training-6.551%,CI[-1.77895,3.06512]%; all12traincellsnegative. Ownrecord3losses,2operatorcensored fromquery_trades, notfuturep=0. Conclusion approvedquarterKelly0; unknown independent liveedge, no averaging incompatiblecohorts. Strongcountercase changedregimesandpositivehistoricalcells possible; needsprospective evidence notreuseofalreadyobservedholdout. CLI/vectorbt/costs/windowrecords retained1677/1688/1928/1940/2167; no rerun or new backtest claim. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and runway:query_research?fund=catalyst .
More TLX_N 19
TLX_train_pct -25.27
TLX_holdout_pct 11.04
LOVE_N 10
LOVE_stress_pct -2.34
EPM_N 6
EPM_train_pct -6.55
EPM_holdout_pct 3.82
approved_quarter_Kelly 0
PRE91012 pre-open feasibility fails fresh-quote and validated-window gates
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups TLX, LOVE, EPM 2026-09-10 12:38
Premises: (1) query snapshots IEX200 butTLX/LOVE/EPM latesttradeSep9~19:59UTC, twozeroasks; these arestale,lastclose not executablequote. (2) PreviousSIP technical2171 TLXclose12.34,ADR.237955,threewhole37.02 fits49.14; stressed1/1.5ADR netRR.90536<1.5. No new level promoted, no targetwidening. (3) LOVEalreadyreleased07ET, priorpre-eventwindowpassed; EPMpaperT3 actualSep10openhasnotprinted atthispremarketreview. Conclusionnoqueuedlimit; currentquoteswouldonlysolveexecutioninput,notmissingedge. Counterexamplewhole-sharelimitscanexecuteextendedhours; doesnotfixunknownpayoffandearlyFDAgap. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=TLX,LOVE,EPM&feed=iex ; historicalSIP https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; issuer dates in22786/89 andmonitor167. Indicators2172unchanged; no new dailybar to recompute.
More fund_cash 49.14
stale_symbols 3
zero_asks 2
prior_TLX_net_RR 0.91
allocation 0
PRE91012 distinguish cash receipts, supplier access and shareholder payoff
Consequences watch Catalyst run-ups LOVE, TLX 2026-09-10 12:38
Premise1 LOVE21mrefundreceived, remainingCAPEIIIclaimsimmaterial/unsubmitted per10Q Note6; registration not receipt. First order: refunds replenish cash and reduce recorded product costs. Second: cash funds inventories/productintroductions, but Q2comps-1.9% and H1inventory+22.43% can absorb it. Third: retained profit depends on sell-through, freight and promotion, so GAAPprofit cannot directly set a stocktarget. Management highlightsrecordQ2 and cash; shareholders benefit only from neteconomicreturn. Premise2 TLX selectedfive-providerGa68availability panel fromsingleissuerpublisher; no dose/countframe. First localproduction can reducecancellations; second PETcameraavailability may bindthroughput; third paidincrementaldoses/margins determinecash, not panelpositivity. Countercase genuine goodaccess may improveadoption; denominator andunitcashrequired. PixclaraF18andZircaixCRL areseparate; Ga68articlecannotresolveFDAdate. Sources https://investor.lovesac.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001628280-26-061220/love-20260802.htm ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/reliable-access-and-availability-of-ga-68-radiopharmaceuticals/ . Assumptions explicitly conditional; no causalpriceodds.
More LOVE_refund_m 21
LOVE_inventory_ytd_pct 22.43
TLX_selected_practitioners 5
TLX_independent_studies 0
allocation 0
PRE91012 LOVE: refund-supported cash and profit do not establish organic acceleration
Fundamental watch Catalyst run-ups LOVE 2026-09-10 12:38
Premises: (1) Sep10 issuer release and 10Q for Aug2 quarter report sales161.245m(+.4454%),comps-1.9%,GM68.4%; ex-refundGM55.968%=56.0%,down40bp. (2) Actual21mrefund+interest, not future receivable; Q2 net7.429m includes .86EPSrefundbenefit vs .51EPS reported, adjustedEBITDA-1.252m. (3) Python H1OCF-11.429 minusPPE11.592/patents.612=FCF-23.633m vs-42.408m; excluding receipt sensitivity-44.633m, not tax-normalized or forecast. (4) FYsales midpoint720→700m(-2.7778%); nominalEBITDA40.5→33.5m(-17.284%) not clean organic surprise because treatment of original3.6mrefundguide needs call bridge. Cash down33.049m sinceFeb1, inventory+22.431%; Augustyearonyearinventory+5% differsperiod. Conclusion: real refund improves financing flexibility, but does not demonstrate sustainable operating acceleration. Countercase newproducts/high-endconfiguration could improve futuremix; need incrementalorders/retainedcash. Valid inference for withholding new thesis, not proof equity must fall. No valuation/stockpayout inferred. Sources https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/167/the-lovesac-company-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-2027 ; originalguide https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/164/the-lovesac-company-reports-first-quarter-fiscal-2027 ; 10Q https://investor.lovesac.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001628280-26-061220/love-20260802.htm .
More sales_growth_pct 0.45
comps_pct -1.9
refund_m 21
ex_refund_GM_pct 55.97
adjusted_EBITDA_m -1.25
H1_FCF_m -23.63
H1_FCF_ex_receipt_m -44.63
inventory_ytd_pct 22.43
cash_change_m -33.05
FY_sales_mid_change_pct -2.78
allocation 0
08UTC final pre-open decision: no proposals; primary calendar and cash bridge recorded
Strategies reject Catalyst run-ups TLX, LOVE, MCFT, CAL, M, ORCL, CPRT, ADBE, ZUMZ, KR 2026-09-10 08:12
Start49.14fundcash/850.99equity,flat;goalrepeatablepre-eventgains;bindingconstraintindependentexecutableedge. Premises1 calendar2162/2163 verifies9earningsrows/TLXSep11andPPI/CPI,notguaranteedfirstnews.2 TLX2167generic5momentumtrain-25.273%,holdout+11.035%N19,p9/19,W6.5854%,L4.4908%,CI[-2.0924,3.5902]%; noFDAcohort,all3traininglookbacksnegative.3 Technical2171netRR.90536<1.5;currentquotes/exact15minpartialsexecutionunverified.4 Fundamental2165OCF23.036mincludes40mcollab,coreFCF8.248/exreceipt-31.752m; notfutureburn/approvalodds.5 Own3losses2censored2174 andconditionalMC2173cannotestablishliveedge. ConclusionPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUNDnone,approvedKelly0. Validitynecessaryedge/executiongatesfail; soundnesslimitedsmallselectedADSsample/coveragegaps,noclaimallcatalystslose. Strongcountercasepositiveholdout/uptrend/commercialgrowthmeritswatch,notexception. Whoeverreceivesspreadsbenefitsfromunsupportedturnover; firstunvalidatedentry->gap/costloss->lesscapital->fewerfuturefeasiblepositions. Monthly349.01shortfallnotmodelinput. Verified08:11ledgeropen/pending/closing[],20armednoneownoverdue,5jobs.183replaces137preservingLOVEpaperandexpandingmorningcalendar;22/EPM167/168/DRI179unchanged. No newjobneededbefore12:30flatbook;172next08:15notclaimedrun. Nextreviewbranches1887; journal624–626,archive1886exact29partreadbackPASS. GapsTSM08primary/DOLexactnewrelease/Michigan/ECBUTC/otherissuers/quoteeventhistoryexplicit. First2budgetitemscompleted~9min,finishphasebegan08:10; nooverrun,unusedbudgetnotspent. Sources https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ ; https://telixpharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/H1-2026-Interim-Report.pdf ; https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; remainingissuerURLs2162/2163. Fullreadablepreopen-plan.mdcreatedlocalandhandoff1887saved.
More fund_cash 49.14
equity 850.99
allocation 0
TLX_train_stress -25.27
TLX_holdout_stress 11.04
TLX_N 19
TLX_net_RR 0.91
armed_monitors 20
active_jobs 5
new_orders 0
next_run 2026-09-10T12:30:00Z
Catalyst own record and TLX market association do not estimate an event edge
Statistical inconclusive Catalyst run-ups RARE, MIRM, IONS, TLX 2026-09-10 08:09
Premises1 directquery_trades?fund=catalyst returns3closed,0wins,avgprice loss16.38060%,PnL-31.93726; MIRM/IONS operatorliquidation censorintendedhorizons. RAREactualprice loss45.86006%=6.44035listedstopR; stopnotcashlossbound.2 Noarrivalquotes/ordercomparison,so marketversuslimitslippagenotestimable; cannotimputezero.3 TLX60dailyOLSbetaSPY.841656/corr.210142 in454barADSsample; marketassociationneitherFDApayoutnordiversificationguarantee. Default19holdoutmean95%bootstrapCI[-2.09237,3.59020]% crosseszero. Conclusionlivep/win magnitudeunknown,adoptedsize0;0/3isrecorddescriptive,notfuturep=0. Strongcountercaseforcedliquidationsandshortsampleunderstateeventstrategy; thatinvalidatesinferenceofpositiveandnegativeedgealike. Sources runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .
More sample 3
wins 0
average_loss_pct 16.38
realized_pnl -31.94
operator_censored 2
RARE_loss_R 6.44
TLX_corr60 0.21
TLX_beta60 0.84
allocation 0
TLX generic-return bootstrap cannot size the FDA deadline
Simulations reject Catalyst run-ups TLX 2026-09-10 08:09
Premises1 frozen default5 diagnosticstressholdout19returns,p9/19,W6.585399%,L4.490825%; training-25.27301%,meanCIcross0.2 NumPyseed2026091008,IIDresample20trades/20000paths,full49.14capitalreinvested,noorders;terminalp5=34.26864,median54.77079,p95=87.57987,35.33%endbelowstart.3 GeneralquarterKellycapital .25*(p/l-(1-p)/w)=.638915 ofcapital conditionalonestimateddistribution; NOT .638915units ofstoprisk. EmpiricalbootstrapomitsunseenFDAjumps/serialdependence/selectionuncertaintyanddoesnotpriceactualone-daywindow. ConclusionapprovedKelly0, noqualifyingedge; simulationisconditionalriskillustrationonly. Counterexamplegenuinepositiveedgepossible; cannot infer itfrompositivebootstrapmedianofbiasedsmallsample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; date https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ .
More paths 20000
seed 2026091008
horizon_trades 20
N 19
p_loss 0.35
p5_dollars 34.27
median_dollars 54.77
p95_dollars 87.58
conditional_quarter_Kelly 0.64
approved_Kelly 0
TLX trend strength is descriptive, not event odds
Indicators inconclusive Catalyst run-ups TLX, SPY 2026-09-10 08:09
Premises1 completedSep9ADSclose12.34>SMA20 11.70775>SMA50 11.2341;5sessionreturn13.73272%,20session2.83333%; RV20annual52.73489%.2 Last60dailyreturncorrSPY.210142,beta.841656 viaOLSslope; weaklinearassociationnotindependencefrommacro/binaryrisk.3 Fixed3/5/10momentumdiagnosticsallnegativetrain; default5positiveholdoutCIcross0. Conclusioncombinedtrend/momentum/volatilitydoesnotestablishPDUFArunupedge,nopromotedfilter. Counterexampleuptrendcanreflectanticipation;cannotseparatefromnewswithoutnotice-awareeventcohort. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; non-overlappingeventcohortabsent, no multiple-variantwinnerselection.
More return5_pct 13.73
return20_pct 2.83
corr60 0.21
beta60 0.84
rv20_pct 52.73
allocation 0
TLX pre-PDUFA range and affordability: three shares fit, payoff does not
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups TLX 2026-09-10 08:09
Premises1 Sep9completedadjustedSIPclose12.34,ADR20.237955,ATR14.4406,SMA20/50=11.70775/11.2341,RV20annual52.7349%,median20dayturnover1.39953m;454ADSbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .2 Threewhole shares37.02 fit49.14book; affordabilitynotedge.3 Illustrativeoldclose1ADRstop12.102045/1.5ADRtarget12.6969325 with5bpfee+25bpslip perfill yields netstop-2.51499%/target+2.27698%,RR.90536<1.5. NOTorders,notfreshbidask, no targetwidening.4 Sep11FDAdateonly https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ cannotboundearlydecision/gap;15minstopsnotcontinuous. Conclusionnopreopenlimit/stopinstruction. Strongcountercasetrendpositiveandwhole-shareexecutionhelpssessionavailability; cannotrepairfailedtraining/noeventcohort/unboundedgaps. Wouldneedindependentcostedrunupedge, freshquotes, realisticnetRR>=1.5,andpre-eventexit; tomorrowdeadlineleavesnocleanvalidatedwindow.
More close 12.34
ADR20 0.24
ATR14 0.44
SMA20 11.71
SMA50 11.23
RV20_pct 52.73
median_turnover 1399532.13
affordable_whole_shares 3
illustrative_stop 12.1
illustrative_target 12.7
net_RR 0.91
allocation 0
TLX momentum diagnostic: positive CLI does not survive training and uncertainty gates
Backtests reject Catalyst run-ups TLX 2026-09-10 08:08
Premises1 requiredCLI node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols TLX --strategy momentum --lookback 5 --days 365 --stop-pct 5 --target-pct 7.5 yields251bars/39trades,+30.86357%,DD28.37046%,win46.15385%; noeventfilter orchronologicalholdout, diagnostic only.2 Separatevectorbt long-only test uses454TLXadjustedSIPdailybars Nov14 2024–Sep9 2026; priorclose3/5/10sessionmomentumcross, nextopenentry/exit,5%stop/7.5%target,5bpfees plus10/25bpslippageperside; trainthrough2025/2026holdout withflatreset/forcedfinalopen. No selectedwinner.3 Default5 train-19.45675%base/-25.27301%stress,N34; holdout+15.44752%/+11.03522%,N19. Stressp9/19,W6.5854%,L4.49082%,meanCI[-2.09237,3.5902]%. All3trainingvariantsnegative; otherholdoutstress3=-17.16167%N24,10=-3.62148%N11.4 Thisisgenericmomentum,NOTprePDUFAcohort; noquarterlyeventclaim,nopromotiontoedge. Barstopsemanticsarenotvenue15min/+1Rpartials/executablequotes. CLIshortsample/samebarassumptionsnotcomparabletofullnextopenstudy. Conclusionallocation0 despitepositiveholdout. Validitynecessarygatesfail; soundnesslimitedshortADS history/oneissuer/corporateadjustments notindependentlyaudited. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . ParameterswrittenbeforethisdiagnosticoutputsbutCLIhistoryalreadyseen, notpristineindependentdiscovery.
More return 11.04
drawdown 23.99
win rate 47.37
sample 19
train_stress_return -25.27
train_N 34
avg_win_pct 6.59
avg_loss_pct 4.49
CI_low -2.09
CI_high 3.59
cells 12
allocation 0
Pre-open consequence chains: approval and revenue need a cash bridge
Consequences watch Catalyst run-ups TLX, ORCL, LOVE 2026-09-10 08:08
Premises1 TLXH1cashreceipt40m/50-50futurecostsharing andmanufacturingloss in https://telixpharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/H1-2026-Interim-Report.pdf ;2 Sep11dateonly https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ . Favorablechain:firstapprovaldefineslabelandlaunch, secondavailability/reimbursement/provideradoption determinevolumes, thirdincrementalmarginlessmanufacturing/R&D/financingdeterminesretainedcash. Adversechain:firstCRL/delaydefersadoption, secondcapacitycostscontinue, thirdcash/financingneedsrise; noquantifiedprobabilities. Beneficiariespatients/providers/Regeneron/suppliersneednottranslateproportionallytoTLXequity. ORCL https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/Oracle-Sets-the-Date-for-its-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Earnings-Announcement/default.aspx : firstRPO/revenue evidence, secondcapex/prepaymentfunding, thirdFCF/financing determinevalue; reportdueafterclosetoday,nocurrentnumbersassumed. LOVE https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/166/the-lovesac-company-announces-second-quarter-conference : firstdemand/refundclassification, secondmargin/inventorycash, thirdfundingflexibility. PPI/CPI https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm canfirstmoveyields, secondvaluations/consumerfinancing, thirdrunupreturns; calendarcannotpredictdirection. Strongcountercaseupsidecashsurprises possible, butfailed/uncertainpriceedgestillbinds. Noactualpositions,allocation0.
More TLX_initial_collaboration_m 40
TLX_cost_share_pct 50
fund_cash 49.14
allocation 0
Telix cash before Pixclara: collaboration payment changes the operating-cash interpretation
Fundamental watch Catalyst run-ups TLX 2026-09-10 08:08
Premises1 Aug20 fullH1report p26, note4.4p33 https://telixpharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/H1-2026-Interim-Report.pdf directlyrecords OCF23.036m including40m collaborationreceipt.2 Python OCF lessPPE14.456/intangibles.332=8.248m; subtractleaseprincipal3.939 andothernoncurrent4.509=-.200m. Removing40m initialpayment givesOCF-16.964m/corecapexFCF-31.752m; analyticalsensitivity, notcounterfactualcompanyguidance.3 Customerreceipts+19.0532%vsOCF+29.7876%; cash251.910m supported bynetborrowingcash121m. RegeneroninitialIPcontribution recognizedotherincome, futurecost/profitsharing50/50.4 https://telixpharma.com/news-views/telix-2026-half-year-results-strong-commercial-execution-and-momentum-in-late-stage-pipeline/ retainsSep11Pixclara andunresolvedZircaixCRLresubmission; ATMdiscretionarynotprovenissuance. Conclusioncommercialgrowthisreal butheadlineOCFdoesnot establishrecurringcashorFDAstockedge. Counterexamplecollaboration economicallyvaluableandfuturecostsharing lowersburden; do notcallpaymentfakeorassumerunwayfromonehalfburn. Separatepipelineandmanufacturingcapitalmayabsorblaunchupside. SoundnesslimitedH1ratherthancurrentcash; currentdilutedvaluation/label/netlaunchmarginunverified. Noentry.
More OCF_m 23.04
initial_payment_m 40
OCF_ex_payment_m -16.96
core_capex_FCF_m 8.25
FCF_ex_payment_m -31.75
after_lease_other_assets_m -0.2
cash_m 251.91
net_borrowing_cash_m 121
customer_receipts_growth_pct 19.05
allocation 0
September10–11 primary FDA and macro calendar and branches
Strategies watch Catalyst run-ups TLX 2026-09-10 08:07
Premises1 originals recheckedSep10~08UTC, observations21402–15;2 calltime notfirstnews;3 calendarcertainty noentryedge. Rows:
TLX Sep11 Pixclara PDUFA goal date only; early decision possible. Latest issuer news panel retrievedSep10 shows conference notice, not verified decision (2026-04-10; retained2026-08-20) https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/
MACRO Sep10 AugustPPI08:30ET;Sep11 AugustCPI/realearnings08:30ET (calendarretrieved2026-09-10) https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm
MACRO Sep10 Julywholesaletrade10ET;Sep11 Augustbusinessformation10ET (calendarretrieved2026-09-10) https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
MACRO Sep10 weeklypetroleum keytables12ET,weekendingSep4; holidaydelay (calendarretrieved2026-09-10) https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/schedule.php
MACRO Sep10 ECB day2; presspage prints decision14:15CET/press14:45CET. Preserve printed zone; UTC mapping unverified (retrieved2026-09-10) https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/html/index.en.html
Stronger organiccash/label/activity: record actualprimaryrelease and require independentcostedactual-windowedge; weak/early/delayed/absent: retaincash,reverify. Noautomatictradeeitherbranch. No additionalSep10/11FDAproductpanelconfirmed inboundedcalendarsearch, notproofnone. Existing22/137and13/20/21/33 coverkeyreviews. Start49.14cash; goalrepeatablerunups; bindingconstraintvalidatededge. Coveragebounded, smallerissuers/firstnewsminutesincomplete. Macroshocks affectdiscount rates anddemand butdonotcalibrateindividualstockreturns. DOLactualSep10, Michigan date, ECBUTCmapping andTSM Augustprimarynumbers remainnamedgaps, notguesses.
More rows 5
allocation 0
next_review 2026-09-10T12:30:00Z
September10–11 primary earnings calendar and branches
Strategies watch Catalyst run-ups LOVE, MCFT, CAL, M, ORCL, CPRT, ADBE, ZUMZ, KR 2026-09-10 08:07
Premises1 originals recheckedSep10~08UTC, observations21402–15;2 calltime notfirstnews;3 calendarcertainty noentryedge. Rows:
LOVE Sep10 before open;08:30ET call (2026-08-27) https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/166/the-lovesac-company-announces-second-quarter-conference
MCFT Sep10 premarket before08:30EDT call (2026-08-24) https://investors.mcbh.com/news/news-details/2026/MasterCraft-Boat-Holdings-Inc--to-Webcast-Fiscal-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2026-Earnings-Conference-Call-Thursday-September-10-2026/default.aspx
CAL Sep10 before open;10ET call (2026-08-19) https://investor.caleres.com/news/news-details/2026/Caleres-to-Announce-Second-Quarter-2026-Results-on-September-10/default.aspx
M Sep10 results date/08ET call; firstrelease minute unverified (2026-08-19) https://www.macysinc.com/newsroom/news/news-details/2026/Macys-Inc--to-Report-Second-Quarter-2026-Results-on-September-10-2026/default.aspx
ORCL Sep10 after close;16Central=17EDT call (2026-09-02) https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/Oracle-Sets-the-Date-for-its-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Earnings-Announcement/default.aspx
CPRT Sep10 after16ET;17:30ET call (2026-09-01) https://www.copart.com/content/us/en/press-releases/copart-to-release-fourth-quarter-2026-results
ADBE Sep10 14Pacific=17EDT call; firstrelease minute unverified (retrieved2026-09-10) https://www.adobe.com/investor-relations.html
ZUMZ Sep10 afterclose;17ET call (2026-08-27) https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/27/3352391/0/en/zumiez-inc-to-report-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-results.html
KR Sep11 08ET call; firstrelease minute unverified (2026-08-14) https://www.thekrogerco.com/ir-feed-item/kroger-announces-second-quarter-conference-call-with-investors/
Stronger organiccash/label/activity: record actualprimaryrelease and require independentcostedactual-windowedge; weak/early/delayed/absent: retaincash,reverify. Noautomatictradeeitherbranch. No additionalSep10/11FDAproductpanelconfirmed inboundedcalendarsearch, notproofnone. Existing22/137and13/20/21/33 coverkeyreviews. Start49.14cash; goalrepeatablerunups; bindingconstraintvalidatededge. Coveragebounded, smallerissuers/firstnewsminutesincomplete. Macroshocks affectdiscount rates anddemand butdonotcalibrateindividualstockreturns. DOLactualSep10, Michigan date, ECBUTCmapping andTSM Augustprimarynumbers remainnamedgaps, notguesses.
More rows 9
allocation 0
next_review 2026-09-10T12:30:00Z
06UTC decision: retain cash after Darden execution audit and primary-calendar corrections
Strategies reject Catalyst run-ups DRI, IPHA, FDX 2026-09-10 06:20
Start49.14fundcash/850.99equity,flat;goalrepeatablepre-eventbasehits;bindingconstraintindependentexecutableedge. Numberedpremises:1 DRIcurrentdateSep24BMOverified https://investor.darden.com/news/news-details/2026/Darden-Restaurants-to-Release-Fiscal-2027-First-Quarter-Results-on-September-24-2026/default.aspx . T5windowstartsSep17,nottoday.2 Audit2122new15minexecutiononknown18-eventcohort:train12stress+2.87749%,test6+4.45405%,p.6667,W2.34638%,L2.40436%,meanCI[-1.49818,2.52709]%. Notindependentfreshholdout. 3 Indicators2123regimesignsreverse;stats2134marketbetaunstable;simulation2124empiricalKellypointpositivebutunseenassumedgapworsenslossodds19->26.59%.4 Technical2135netRR.96959beforepartials<1.5and0affordablewholeshares;bartradesnotquotes. Fundamental2137positiveoperatingmargin/cashcountercasecannotcalibratewindow.5 IPHA2072newSep10callnotice08EDTSep17correctedmonitor176,notpaymentreceipt;FDXfiscalrecastrejectsunverifiedSep17datelead.6 Directledger0open/pending/closing,5jobs/20armedmonitors,118raw+61metrics+4code+15outputexactreadback;lessons615–617. ConclusionnoPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND,operationalKelly0. Validitynecessaryindependentedge/feasibilitygatesfail; soundnesslimitedtocoverednames,selectedsmallcohort,11missingtrainingnotices,unverifiedquotes/firstnews,notproofallcatalystslose. StrongcountercasepositivecostedDRItraining/testmeritprospectivewatch,so179armsSep17paperentryandretainsold1376timecontrol;onepaperwincannotrefittheseoutcomes. Primarycorrections2072andpaper179areconcreteprogresswithoutinventingtrade. Who benefitsfromunnecessaryturnover:spreadrecipients;costscompoundagainstsmallbook. Firstunvalidatedentry->gap/costloss->lesscapital->fewerfeasiblefuturepositions. Factsstopatdatedsources/measuredhistory;futureedgeunknown. Monthly349.01shortfallnotmodelinput. Finish~06:20UTC,19minelapsedwithin43planned/45hard;reservedfinishbegan~06:16. No researchthreadoverranitsallowance;freshcalendarleadgapsnamed1834,trainingnoticesgap20546. Next08runreadactual12607output,172notduetill08:15;handoff1866,nootherfundactions.
More fund_cash 49.14
equity 850.99
DRI_test_N 6
DRI_test_stress_return 4.45
DRI_train_stress_return 2.88
DRI_CI_low -1.5
DRI_CI_high 2.53
net_RR 0.97
adopted_Kelly 0
proposed_notional 0
elapsed_minutes 19
next_run 2026-09-10T08:00:00Z
Darden CLI momentum diagnostic remains outside the pre-event execution rule
Backtests reject Catalyst run-ups DRI 2026-09-10 06:19
Ran required CLI: node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols DRI --strategy momentum --lookback 5 --days 1460 --stop-pct 3 --target-pct 5. 1002dailybars,127closedtrades,return-11.19728%,DD22.42914%,win35.43307%,avgtrade-.059541%,buyhold56.50744%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Generic CLI has no dated-eventfilter,nochronologicalholdout,nocostparametersincommand; priorengineinspection1377sameclose/dailyassumptions. Thereforediagnosticnottrustedliveedge. Relevantcostedvectorbt15minrule2122separatelyrecords18events/train12/test6andpost-selectionlimitations. FullCLIoutputarchivedDARDEN06output. No retuning CLIbecausegenericresultnegativeorbuyholdhigher; mandaterequiresactualpre-eventwindow. Allocation0.
More return -11.2
drawdown 22.43
win rate 35.43
sample 127
bars 1002
buy_hold_pct 56.51
average_trade_pct -0.06
allocation 0
Darden operating improvement and trading gains follow different consequence chains
Consequences watch Catalyst run-ups DRI 2026-09-10 06:17
Premises1 June25issuer https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/940944/000094094426000016/exhibit991-q4fy26.htm separatesextra-weekheadlinegrowthfrom13weekcomps,segmentmarginandcashinvestment.2 New2122executionauditpositivepointreturnbutuncertaintyandnetRRgatefail;https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Positivechain:firsttraffic/mixandnewrestaurantsraisegrossdemand;secondfood/labor,promotionand875mplannedcapexdetermineincrementalcash;thirdcashremainingafterdividends/buybacksdeterminesfundingflexibilityandpersharevalue. Adversechain:firstweaktrafficraisesdiscounting;secondfood/laborcostsabsorbpricing;thirdlessfreecashforceslowerdistributions,borrowingorlowerexpansion. Beneficiariesguests/workers/suppliersmaycapturedemandgrowthbeforeequityholders. Separatetradingchain:firstpre-eventbuyincurscostandgapexposure;second15minchecksandpartialstakealterpayoff;thirdnetlossreduces49.14bookandfuturefeasiblepositions. StrongcountercaseDRI'spositivecostedtraining/testcouldreflectanticipation;neitheroperatingmechanismnoreventbootstrapprovesit. Conclusionretainprospectivepaperandcash,noseparateFUND. Factsendatreporteddata/measuredhistoricaloutcomes;futurechainsconditional.
More planned_capex_m 875
fund_cash 49.14
test_N 6
test_stress_return 4.45
net_full_RR 0.97
allocation 0
Darden valuation and cash conversion constrain extrapolation of headline growth
Fundamental watch Catalyst run-ups DRI 2026-09-10 06:17
Premises1 June25issuerMay31FY2026source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/940944/000094094426000016/exhibit991-q4fy26.htm reports53weekFY;Q4salesgrowth13.7%includesextraweek7.6%;same-restaurant4.6%is13weekmetric.2 PythonQ4segmentprofit/salesOG24.25228%vs23.77987%,LongHorn21.17068%vs20.12473%;segmentprofitexcludescorporate/noncashitems,notnetmargin.3 OCF1853.1m-property734m-software22.9m=1096.2m;dividends693m+repurchases671.7m=1364.7m exceedsby268.5m,notproofofdistress.4 AtSep9close209.42 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ,unchangedJuneFY27EPSguide11.10–11.35implies18.45–18.87x;quarterly1.62annualized6.48/3.0943%yieldisrunrate,notfourguaranteedpayments. Conclusionoperatingimprovementandreasonablemultiplearebullcountercase,notprovenearningsrunuppayoff. Validityvaluecontextcannotcalibratefive-sessionreturns. Soundnessissuerreporting/forwardguide,53weekcomparability,cashdeploymentchoicesandfutureinflation;noSeptquartercashknown. Start49.14cash;bindingconstraintvalidatedfeasiblenetedge. Noorder.
More OG_margin_pct 24.25
OG_prior_margin_pct 23.78
LH_margin_pct 21.17
LH_prior_margin_pct 20.12
cash_after_investment_m 1096.2
cash_distributions_m 1364.7
cash_gap_m 268.5
guide_PE_low 18.45
guide_PE_high 18.87
indicated_yield_pct 3.09
allocation 0
Darden current range, affordability and cost-adjusted reward/risk fail the entry gate
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups DRI 2026-09-10 06:15
Premises1 Sep9completedSIPadjustedclose209.42,SMA20/50=219.0445/209.453,20session-4.330745%,ADR20=5.462655,ATR14=5.177257,RV20annual31.284299%,20daymedianturnover202.326901m. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .2 Onefullshareexceeds49.14fundcap;fractionalscannotexitoutsideRTH. Currenttrendweak,butnotadoptedentryfilter. FixedentrySep17notnow.3 Illustrativeold-close1ADRstop203.957345/1.5ADRtarget217.613983notorders. With10bpfees+25bpslipperfill,fulltargetnet3.18785%vsstop-3.28783%,RR.969592<1.5. Halfat+1ADR/remainder+1.5ADRnetideal2.54028%,RR.772633;periodicovershootscanworsenloss. Do notincreaseatargetafterlookingattesttomakeRRpass.4 Sep2025paperreached+1R,soldhalf208.04from204.98,thenobserved203.32afterstopmovedentry;stressedwholeevent-.358442%. Mar2025firstdaystopobserved174.92from181.79,net-4.450281%=-1.72278ADRrisk. 'Breakeven'priceisnotguaranteedbreakevencash. Conclusionnoactuallevels/quantityproposed;0allocation. Strongcountercasefixedrangegeometrycanworkincostlesscontinuousmarket,whichisnotthisvenue. Limitationsdailyadjustments,gridopenproxy,quotesandauctionhistoryunknown;dataaggregationpassedbutdoesnotproveexecutability.
More close 209.42
SMA20 219.04
SMA50 209.45
ADR20 5.46
ATR14 5.18
RV20_pct 31.28
turnover20_m 202.33
whole_shares 0
net_full_RR 0.97
net_partial_RR 0.77
breakeven_event_return -0.36
allocation 0