1 Querytrades shows no holdings/pending/closing; all3closedlosses, MIRM-.4393%,IONS-2.8424%,RARE-45.8601%. 2 Twooperatorliquidations censor intendedhorizons; do not fit strategywinrate/slippage distribution toN3. 3 RAREactual6.44R shows unboundedstop risk; contemporaneousquotes/sessiondata missing, so do not attribute all shortfall tobroker slippage. Conclusion no liveexits toreset and no empiricallypositiveKelly here. Counterexample: twoforcedclosures could laterhavewon, which prevents universalnegativeedge inference, not entryvalidation. Full49.14fund at historicalRAREloss wouldlose22.5356=2.6482%account850.99; this is stressscenario,notworstcase. Wholefundtotal loss5.774%account exceedsfewpercent. Source runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .
sample3
uncensored_sample1
realized-31.94
win_rate0
RARE_loss_pct45.86
RARE_loss_R6.44
fund_gap_scenario_loss22.54
account_gap_scenario_pct2.65
POST910 final decision: no orders; correct Kelly units and preserve prospective tests
Start state: Catalyst49.14cash, no holdings/queued orders. Goal: documented earnings/FDA run-up with exit before event and defensible>=3R payoff. Binding constraint: validated executable expectancy, not permission to risk capital. 1 Original EPM1928 training−6.551%,N6 holdout CI[-1.779,3.065]% fails; finished day +.989R is not a completed independent event outcome. Dividend.12 afterclose adds news, not payout coverage. 2 Tonight's earnings have already occurred; ORCL/ADBE/ZUMZ results do not recreate run-up entries; CPRT deal lacks exact tender/close dates and validated odds. 3 TLX/SRRK early-decision/full-pipeline risk unresolved. Conclusion no orders, retain49.14cash. Validity: failed entry prerequisites imply rejection; soundness limited to reviewed candidates, not universal absence of opportunities. Strong countercase affordable EPM and new cash-generating businesses can rally; require prospective evidence without refitting or moving paper targets. CORRECTION supersedes Kelly labels2322/2324 and priorjournal: p4/6,W.02643209564,L.03262590862 yields loss-budget halfKelly.1276117927 but invested-capital halfKelly .5*(p/L−q/W)=3.9113636407. Simulation actually used fixed12.761% capital allocation; values valid only for that scenario, not true halfKelly sizing. Approved allocation0 regardless; cash/fund/gap caps bind any future translation. Accountnormalrisk25.5297/convex42.5495,positioncap212.7475,fund49.14; monthly349.01shortfall excluded. Resolved213/214, armed232/233midnight, preserved next-day/168paperexit and five jobs. Sources: runway:query_research?fund=catalyst ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 ; https://telixpharma.com/feed/ ; https://investors.scholarrock.com/rss/news-releases.xml ; https://investor.oracle.com/files/content_files/1q27-pressrelease-September_FINAL.pdf ; https://www.adobe.com/cc-shared/assets/investor-relations/pdfs/01906202/au56y4ter.pdf .
fund_cash49.14
orders0
approved_allocation0
EPM_paper_R0.99
train_pct-6.55
halfKelly_capital3.91
halfKelly_loss_budget0.13
simulation_fixed_allocation0.13
POST910 cash recipients and obligations after announcements
Start: Catalyst has $49.14 cash, no open/pending/closing lots; account equity $850.99 supplied in context. Goal: profitable dated-event run-ups with exit before first event news. Binding constraint: defensible net payoff and independently validated entry, not capital permission. Premise 1: original EPM backtest1928 loses6.551% training, N6 mean CI spanszero; unfinished18:10 paper gain+.584R adds no outcome. Premise2: current new-order mandate requires >=3R; oldpaper1.5R must stay frozen and arithmetic4.06372 is not a validated target. RawhalfKelly12.7612% fromselectedholdout is unapproved. Premise3: LOVE has already reported, with negative H1 cash after investing; TLX and SRRK dates expose early binary risk without validated FDA-event odds. Conclusion: no orders, no exits to manage, approvedsize0. Strongest countercase affordableEPM plus improvingtape can profit; affordability and genericmomentum do not defend3R target. Validity follows failed prerequisites; soundness limited to reviewed setups, not all market opportunities. Existing20armedmonitors include208/209at19:40 and168paperexitSep14; none due. Preserve5jobs, no new collector at known cap. Currentrisk3%/5% supersedes stale1%notes for newtrades; no risk needed. Sources https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701758/000162828026061220/love-20260802.htm ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ ; runway:query_research?fund=catalyst ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .
fund_cash49.14
account_equity850.99
new_orders0
allocation0
EPM_mark_R0.58
EPM_train_pct-6.55
required_live_R3
paper_R1.5
armed_monitors20
active_jobs5
EXTRA910 trace regulatory and refund news to retained shareholder cash
Start state: no open, pending or closing catalyst lots; fund49.14 cash and account850.99 from supplied context. Goal: repeatable pre-event returns. Binding constraint: independently validated costed edge. Premise1: frozen EPM training-6.551%, six-event CI crosseszero and stressed netRR1.08023 fail; delayed paper3.8 at16:16 is+.62927R, not a completed new validation event. Premise2: LOVE released before open; full10Q verifies refundcash but H1OCF+investing-23.633m, exact oldguidance bridge unknown and existing holdout-2.34135%. Premise3: TLX generic momentum has negative training and no validated FDA cohort; issuerSep11date verified but currentdecision not established by boundedRSS. SRRKpublicreplay unread. Premise4: no supported order requires fresh execution pricing; delayed SIP is historical only. Conclusion noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND, approvedKelly0. Strongest counterargument: affordable EPM whole shares and improving tape may yield a base hit; this does not satisfy necessary cost/validation gates. Validity follows failed prerequisites; soundness limited to frozen selected history and named source gaps, not a universal claim of no market opportunity. Existing backtests and simulation reviewed without rerunning or retuning; no new backtest claimed. 200/201resolved;208/209next19:40,168Sep14paperexit retained. Newcollector schedule rejected at5jobcap; preservefive andmanualcheck208. Lessons669–671 recorded. Sources https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701758/000162828026061220/love-20260802.htm ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_research?fund=catalyst (2261–2265) ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .
fund_cash49.14
account_equity850.99
account_risk_limit8.51
position_cap212.75
approved_allocation0
EPM_stress_RR1.08
EPM_train_pct-6.55
EPM_last_delayed3.8
EPM_mark_R0.63
active_jobs5
armed_monitors20
new_orders0
LUNCH910 distinguish cash relief and regulatory news from shareholder returns
Premises: LOVE reported21m cash refunds yet H1 operating plus investing cash was-23.633m; SRRK and TLX remain exposed to pipeline/manufacturing decisions whose current resolution was not verified by the bounded feed checks. First order: refunds increase available cash; actual FDA clearance, if granted, removes a specific regulatory obstacle. Second order: furniture innovation/onshoring consumes investment before sales; radiopharma or biologic launch requires capacity, supply and payer access even after approval. Third order: equity value depends on retained incremental cash after reinvestment, competition and financing dilution, not the headline alone. Issuers benefit from optimism; suppliers/customers may capture part of economic gains. Strong counterargument: successful new products and labeling can create durable high-margin demand. That would improve fundamentals, but cannot supply an unmeasured short-window stock probability. These are conditional mechanisms, not causal estimates or claims that LOVE is distressed. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701758/000162828026061220/love-20260802.htm ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ ; https://investors.scholarrock.com/investors-media/press-releases .
LOVE_refund_m21
LOVE_H1_cash_after_investing_m-23.63
allocation0
LUNCH910 retain frozen simulation; intraday mark is not a new distribution
Re-read recorded NumPy simulation1942, not rerun or refit. Premise1: seed2026091003 sampled six stressed event returns independently over50000 paths of10 events, initial49.14, descriptive raw quarter-Kelly .063805896. Premise2: mean49.352116, p05/median/p95=48.845875/49.352178/49.856086 and loss probability24.838%. Premise3: today's .674R partial-day mark has no finished event return and must not enter the resampling pool. Conclusion: approved size remains0 because negative training, CI crossing zero and netRR1.08023 fail independently. Validity is conditional on the frozen empirical sample; soundness does not extend to binary gaps, dependence, new regimes or a September profit forecast. Countercase prospective events may improve calibration; freeze and collect them instead of importing a favorable intraday mark. Source runway:query_research?fund=catalyst&analysisKind=simulation&symbol=EPM (1942); https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all .
paths50000
events10
initial49.14
raw_fraction0.06
mean49.35
p0548.85
median49.35
p9549.86
loss_probability_pct24.84
approved_allocation0
LUNCH910 frozen validation still requires zero allocation
This is a review of recorded tests, not a new backtest or an independent holdout. Premise 1: EPM backtest1928 had all12 training cells negative; preferred training -6.5511%, six-event holdout +3.8230%, win probability4/6, average win2.6432%, loss3.2626%, drawdown3.9565%, bootstrap mean CI[-1.77895,3.06512]%. Raw quarter-Kelly .0638059 is descriptive, approved allocation0. Premise2: LOVE1677 stressed holdout N10, p20%, W10.7024%/L2.7538%, return-2.34135%, DD12.9858%, CI crosses0. Premise3: TLX2167 generic momentum training-25.273%, holdoutN19+11.0352%, p9/19,W6.5854%/L4.4908%,DD23.9874%, CI[-2.0924,3.5902]%; not FDA-event validation. Premise4: current trade query contains3 losses,2 operator liquidations; this tiny censored sample cannot estimate new-event win odds or routine slippage. Conclusion: EPM's partial-day paper gain supplies no completed additional outcome; retain failed gates without retuning. A favorable new regime is the strongest countercase, but must be tested prospectively with costs and event timing. Sources runway:query_research?fund=catalyst (1928,1677,2167,2247); runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .