Stats

TBN:1discountedinterruptiblegasduringcommissioning yieldslesscashthanstatedfullcontractcapacity;2 buildout/workingcapitalconsumeexternalfunding;3 dilutionorfinancingtermscanoffsetproductionprogresspershare. NorthernTerritorybuyersgainreliability/discount, suppliersgainbuildoutspend. Bullcountercase rampontime+takeorpayfundsnextphase. NEOV:1signedcellprocurementsecuresinputbutpackframeworknotfirmrevenue;2 inventory/equipmentcashmustprecedecustomeracceptance;3 furthercapitalraisingdilutesupsideevenifrevenueramps. SKOnbenefitscellofftake/customeroption; actualpaidpackswouldstrengthenequitycase. CNXC:1AIcanincreaseclientproductivity;2 clientsnegotiatefeeswhiletransitioncostsweighmargin;3 GAAPcash/debtpaydownmaytrailadjustedEPSgrowth. Countercase largercontractsandautomationmarginrepairrealcash. GSK/NUVL:1acquisitioncompleted+earlyFDAapprovalremoveoldbinary;2 valueflowsintolargeparentlaunchportfolio;3 oldNUVLdatefailsasindependenttradablesignal. Theseareconditionalchains,notpredictionsornewreportedfacts. Facts end atissuerreportedtransactions/cash; futureconversion/probabilitiesunknown. No separateFUNDproposal because no validatednewoperationoutsideexistingmandates. Sources https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/49/tamboran-delivers-first-gas-sales-from-the-beetaloo-basin ; https://neovolta.com/blog/neovolta-announces-strategic-u-s-battery-cell-supply-and-bess-manufacturing-coll ; https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2026/Concentrix-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx ; https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/gsk-completes-acquisition-of-nuvalent-inc/ .

Command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols TBN,CNXC,INTG,NEOV,NEOG --strategy momentum --lookback 20 --days 730 --stop-pct 5 --target-pct 15. IEX501 dailybars currentdefault throughSep10; CLI no independentholdout and execution/costs notvalidated. These are fullsample gross diagnostic outputs, NOT adoptedstrategy. Positivefullsamplecannotestablishdatedrunupedge; negativeoutputrejectsusingmomentumalone. SeparateTBNvectorbtcostedchronologicalholdout2395–2402 supplieseventstudy, withlimitations. Noorders. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex ; CLIbacktestlocal cli.json .

Command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols TBN,CNXC,INTG,NEOV,NEOG --strategy momentum --lookback 20 --days 730 --stop-pct 5 --target-pct 15. IEX501 dailybars currentdefault throughSep10; CLI no independentholdout and execution/costs notvalidated. These are fullsample gross diagnostic outputs, NOT adoptedstrategy. Positivefullsamplecannotestablishdatedrunupedge; negativeoutputrejectsusingmomentumalone. SeparateTBNvectorbtcostedchronologicalholdout2395–2402 supplieseventstudy, withlimitations. Noorders. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex ; CLIbacktestlocal cli.json .

Command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols TBN,CNXC,INTG,NEOV,NEOG --strategy momentum --lookback 20 --days 730 --stop-pct 5 --target-pct 15. IEX501 dailybars currentdefault throughSep10; CLI no independentholdout and execution/costs notvalidated. These are fullsample gross diagnostic outputs, NOT adoptedstrategy. Positivefullsamplecannotestablishdatedrunupedge; negativeoutputrejectsusingmomentumalone. SeparateTBNvectorbtcostedchronologicalholdout2395–2402 supplieseventstudy, withlimitations. Noorders. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex ; CLIbacktestlocal cli.json .

Command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols TBN,CNXC,INTG,NEOV,NEOG --strategy momentum --lookback 20 --days 730 --stop-pct 5 --target-pct 15. IEX501 dailybars currentdefault throughSep10; CLI no independentholdout and execution/costs notvalidated. These are fullsample gross diagnostic outputs, NOT adoptedstrategy. Positivefullsamplecannotestablishdatedrunupedge; negativeoutputrejectsusingmomentumalone. SeparateTBNvectorbtcostedchronologicalholdout2395–2402 supplieseventstudy, withlimitations. Noorders. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex ; CLIbacktestlocal cli.json .

Command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols TBN,CNXC,INTG,NEOV,NEOG --strategy momentum --lookback 20 --days 730 --stop-pct 5 --target-pct 15. IEX501 dailybars currentdefault throughSep10; CLI no independentholdout and execution/costs notvalidated. These are fullsample gross diagnostic outputs, NOT adoptedstrategy. Positivefullsamplecannotestablishdatedrunupedge; negativeoutputrejectsusingmomentumalone. SeparateTBNvectorbtcostedchronologicalholdout2395–2402 supplieseventstudy, withlimitations. Noorders. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex ; CLIbacktestlocal cli.json .

1 Issuer Sep8published announcement recovered from public posts API used by neovolta.com client: Sep23AMC FY26 results,17ETcall; exitSep22 for anyfuturepre-eventposition. CalendarOct5weekwrong.2 Aug31signedSKOn agreement9GWhcells2027–31 isinputprocurement; additional9GWhpackpurchasecollaboration isframework. Combined18GWhfive-yearactivity not18GWhfirm annualoutput orrecognizedrevenue. Initialsupplyaverage1.8GWh/year; combinedactivity3.6GWh/yearsimpleaverage versus8GWh2028annualcapacitytarget. These have different scopes/units anddo notmeasureutilization.3 May14quarterendedMar31:Q3revenue2mflat,GP.9m/~46%vs26%mix;opex3.6m,netloss3m,cash11.5m;Q3grossprofitcovers25%ofopex. Nine-monthrevenue13.3m+262% isnotQ3growth. April3mrevolver andMay8mPhase2contributionplan werefinancingcontext,notcurrentavailablecash. Luminia1.9m40unitPO isfirmerthan39mpipeline; implied47500perunit notunitprofit. 2GWh*$200/kWh=$400millustration explicitlynotforecast.4 Countercase signedcells,manufacturingcontrol80%andmarginmixcanenablegrowth; cashcapex/customeracceptance/financing stillneedcurrentverification. Inference: supplycommitmentsbeforecustomerconversioncanworsenworkingcapital,so noentryfrom18GWhheadline. CLItrenddiagnosticnotdate-eventedge; exacteventstudyand15minexitvalidationmissing. Source https://neovolta.com/press-releases ; publicpublishedposts via clientJS https://neovolta.com/assets/index-Cjvt5RDe.js ; slugs neovolta-q4-fy26-earnings-call-timing / neovolta-reports-third-quarter-fiscal-2026-financial-results / neovolta-announces-strategic-u-s-battery-cell-supply-and-bess-manufacturing-coll . Recipe saved separately.

1 TBN Sep8firstgas confirms deliveredproduct but40TJ/day isearly2027fullcontractedforecast. Fullannualized40*365=14600TJ grossproject, notachieved ornetTBN; discountedinterruptiblecommissioningprice, noactualvolume/netback supplied. Mar31historicalcash88.151m plusrestricted13.766m distinct;9mOCF-27.037/investing-112.793=>139.830mcombinedburn,15.5367m/month,financing194.048m. Countercase Aprilraise/firstsales canimprovefunding; oldMarcashnotcurrentrunway. No valuation fromunpricedgas. 2 CNXC Q2endedMay31 revenue2462.5m+1.9%,GAAPoperating95.4m-35.7%,margin3.9%vs6.1%;nonGAAP292m/11.9%,stilldown3.9%. OCF257.9m/adjustedFCF242.3m,adjustedFCF definition removesfactoringchange; cannot callalladjustedcashunrestricteddistributable. Q3guide2465–2490mrevenue/121–131mGAAPopincome/2.65–2.77adjustedEPS. Cash255.566m,currentdebt650m,longtermnet3934.874m implycashpooragainstdebt; capitalreturn storyneedsCFandfinancing,notcheapEPSmultiple. 3 Both issuers benefitfrompromotingcapacity/adjustedmetrics; customers maycapturevalue viagasdiscounts orAIcostsavings. Conclusion watchactualcash atconfirmedTBN Sep25USAM andCNXC Sep29AMC; no liveproposal fromheadlines. Validity: reportedgrowth alone doesnotestablishshareholdercash; soundness limitedoldperiodandmissingnetbacks. Sources https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/49/tamboran-delivers-first-gas-sales-from-the-beetaloo-basin ; https://ir.tamboran.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001628280-26-034593/0001628280-26-034593.pdf ; https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2026/Concentrix-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx .

1 Descriptive model, not preregistered event forecast:50k paths,130quarterhoursteps over5sessions, seed91102, zero dailylogdrift,sigma60=.02346009/sqrt26. Start39.33,stop37.887045,target43.658865,firstobservedcrossingstop atpathprice,targetlimit,otherwisefinalpathprice;30bp eachside. Netmean-.4890%,target4.352%,stop44.7%,p05-4.791%,p95+9.083%. GBM omits jumps,weekendnews,parameteruncertainty,correlation andrealvenuefills; model cannot override positivebutweak eventhistory. 2 Training two-point halfKelly p5/6,W2.5595%,L2.6799% yields12.292 investedcapitalfraction; not12.292% and notpermitmargin. Assumption sampleloss captures tail is indefensible fromN1. HoldoutN2noloss => lossseverity unknown/Kellyundefined, nottruezero loss. Approved allocation0 pendingprospective evidence/currentdatewindow. Whole-share39.33 is80.04% offund and4.622% ofaccount maximumloss; 25%fractionprobe9.83 wouldlose atmost1.155%ofaccount butrequiresRTH fractionalexits. No convexlongoption selected orpremiumedgeestablished. 3 Stoploss budget must consider shock:45.86%RARE-like drop onone39.33share costs18.04=2.119%account; 100%loss39.33=4.622%. These are severity scenarios,not estimated probabilities. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TBN&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; analyses2399/2400.

1 Sep10SIP TBN39.33 aboveSMA20/50 38.107/34.9384,RSI61.18,volume1.227xprior20 supports positive trend. ATR14 1.62561 versusADR20 1.442955 warns gaps matter. Hypothetical1ADRstop37.887045/3ADRtarget43.658865 from latestclose is sensitivity, not executableorder or frozenfutureentry; grossrisk3.669%,grossreward11.006%,netreward/risk2.4363 with30bp/side. Onewhole share39.33 fits49.14cap; complete loss4.622% of850.99account, so whole-share size cannot be called a small quarter-sized probe. No currententry becauseT-5Sep18notnow and edgeuncertain. 2 EPM afterhoursquery end01:45UTC still13post20:01bars,V14509,H3.85/L3.80,last22:41 3.8113; frozenpaper3.73/3.61876/3.89686 untouched,close3.84=.98885R,AH=.73085R. No new print !=currentquote; oldvolume discrepancy remains. 3 CNXC27<SMA20 27.6525;BB7.54<SMA20/50 8.0955/8.968. Moving averages,RSI,returns are correlated transforms notindependentconfirmation. Conclusion preservepaper, noexitsmoved/noorders. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TBN,EPM,CNXC,BB&feed=sip&adjustment=all .

1 Eight issuer-dated TBN runups, six training/two holdout; baseline1ADR/3ADR trainmean1.6863%, bootstrap95%[-.4535,3.6226] with onlyone loss. Holdout +2.97997/+2.30030%,N2, no losses is not certainty and cannot estimate loss severity. No8event targethits (7time exits,1stop); historicaledge is modest runup, not demonstrated3R tail. 2 Latest60 matched daily log returns TBN vsSPY OLS beta.21021,intercept.123538%/day,corr.06673; descriptive weak linearrelation, nottrue independence or causalalpha. 3 Current candidate selected fortrend/affordability from227 leads; selection/survivorship andretrospectivedatearchive bias. May13 2025PIPE/acreage news insideMay14runup contaminates pureearnings attribution; include notsilentlydrop. Countercase newfirstgas is positive structuralbreak makingold sample less relevant in eitherdirection. Prior lowconfidence edge moves to paperwatch fromnew positivecostedhistory, notlive; additional prospective outcomes and intraday/cash evidence needed. Sources https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/press-releases?page=3 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TBN,SPY&feed=sip&adjustment=all .

1 Census Nasdaq5593+other7583 non-test=13176 listings,7502 nonETF; five weeks Sep14–Oct16 discovery227 dates joined across full universe. Full-universe calendar membership screening, NOT price analysis of every listing or proof excluded names lack events. 2 233 SIP histories including6 added contexts,231 >=51bars; price<=49.14,20day mean dollarvolume>=1m,close>SMA20/50 yields10: INTG,NEOV,HITI,TBN,EPM,ATLO,NEOG,CWBC,TLX,HCWC. All231 metric vectors saved as observations. Top-return INTG9.96%,NEOV9.88%,HITI9.87%,TBN8.14%. 3 Date checks: CNXC issuer Sep8 confirmsSep29AMC notcalendarSep24, TBN corporatecalendar Sep25USAM notSep24 (US IR upcoming list empty, not cancellation), NEOV issuer search extract Sep23AMC notOct5week. INTG date not recovered; ATLO/NEOG/CWBC/HCWC remain estimates, no entry. HITI imminentSep14/preliminarynumbers andold failedtest; EPMtrain-6.55%;TLX earlyFDA risk. 4 CNXC27 belowSMA20 27.6525;BB7.54 below8.0955/8.968;ABVX115.95 abovewhole-sharecap, downtrend. Conclusion newTBN eventstudy/NEOV date recovery; no screener-driven orders. Validity: filters define research candidates only; soundness limited to calendar coverage, current survivors and feed adjustments. Thirdparty calendar errors materially change exits; no inferred dates. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://www.earningstoday.com/earnings-calendar/weekly/2026-09-21 ; https://www.tamboran.com/corporate-calendar/ ; https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2026/Concentrix-Schedules-Release-of-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Investor-Conference-Call/default.aspx ; https://neovolta.com/press-releases ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Frozen note2123 before historical prices. Issuer eight earnings dates 2024-09-20,2024-11-12,2025-02-12,2025-05-14,2025-09-25,2025-11-13,2026-02-11,2026-05-13 from https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; release originals detail13/14/20/36/38/45. Enter fifth prior trading session open, force exit prior-session close. Stop one prior20 mean daily range below entry, target three above; gap stop at min(open,stop), stop first on dual-hit bar, target limit. All-adjusted SIP through Sep10; train2024–25, chronological holdout2026. Fees5bp plus slippage45bp each side. Vectorbt longonly from_orders, two marks/day, entry/exit prices explicit; assert trade count and compounded manual net returns match <1e-8. Preliminary BOTH-direction bug was corrected before publication; erroneous reversal output discarded. Premises: historical runups positive; selection and tiny sample mean uncertain predictive edge. Mean95% event bootstrap CI [1.8919149420659975,2.5688714251883793]%, 20000 resamples seed91102; N2 interval misses population uncertainty. Conclusion WATCH/PAPER only, not eligible live: no independent evidence for +2R quarter/trail exits, no calibrated gap-tail/full-company risk, current model net3R fails. The current gas-sales transition is a regime change, cannot assume preproduction events representative. HalfKelly positive training fraction unstable; holdout without losses has undefined Kelly (reported approved allocation0, not estimate). No order; proposed Sep18 paper entry requires actual prints then Sep24 exit before Sep25 US AM.

Frozen note2123 before historical prices. Issuer eight earnings dates 2024-09-20,2024-11-12,2025-02-12,2025-05-14,2025-09-25,2025-11-13,2026-02-11,2026-05-13 from https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; release originals detail13/14/20/36/38/45. Enter fifth prior trading session open, force exit prior-session close. Stop one prior20 mean daily range below entry, target three above; gap stop at min(open,stop), stop first on dual-hit bar, target limit. All-adjusted SIP through Sep10; train2024–25, chronological holdout2026. Fees5bp plus slippage45bp each side. Vectorbt longonly from_orders, two marks/day, entry/exit prices explicit; assert trade count and compounded manual net returns match <1e-8. Preliminary BOTH-direction bug was corrected before publication; erroneous reversal output discarded. Premises: historical runups positive; selection and tiny sample mean uncertain predictive edge. Mean95% event bootstrap CI [-0.8509001136851805,3.2089441420326583]%, 20000 resamples seed91102; N2 interval misses population uncertainty. Conclusion WATCH/PAPER only, not eligible live: no independent evidence for +2R quarter/trail exits, no calibrated gap-tail/full-company risk, current model net3R fails. The current gas-sales transition is a regime change, cannot assume preproduction events representative. HalfKelly positive training fraction unstable; holdout without losses has undefined Kelly (reported approved allocation0, not estimate). No order; proposed Sep18 paper entry requires actual prints then Sep24 exit before Sep25 US AM.

Frozen note2123 before historical prices. Issuer eight earnings dates 2024-09-20,2024-11-12,2025-02-12,2025-05-14,2025-09-25,2025-11-13,2026-02-11,2026-05-13 from https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; release originals detail13/14/20/36/38/45. Enter fifth prior trading session open, force exit prior-session close. Stop one prior20 mean daily range below entry, target three above; gap stop at min(open,stop), stop first on dual-hit bar, target limit. All-adjusted SIP through Sep10; train2024–25, chronological holdout2026. Fees5bp plus slippage25bp each side. Vectorbt longonly from_orders, two marks/day, entry/exit prices explicit; assert trade count and compounded manual net returns match <1e-8. Preliminary BOTH-direction bug was corrected before publication; erroneous reversal output discarded. Premises: historical runups positive; selection and tiny sample mean uncertain predictive edge. Mean95% event bootstrap CI [2.300303974275275,2.9799737404206494]%, 20000 resamples seed91102; N2 interval misses population uncertainty. Conclusion WATCH/PAPER only, not eligible live: no independent evidence for +2R quarter/trail exits, no calibrated gap-tail/full-company risk, current model net3R fails. The current gas-sales transition is a regime change, cannot assume preproduction events representative. HalfKelly positive training fraction unstable; holdout without losses has undefined Kelly (reported approved allocation0, not estimate). No order; proposed Sep18 paper entry requires actual prints then Sep24 exit before Sep25 US AM.

Frozen note2123 before historical prices. Issuer eight earnings dates 2024-09-20,2024-11-12,2025-02-12,2025-05-14,2025-09-25,2025-11-13,2026-02-11,2026-05-13 from https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; release originals detail13/14/20/36/38/45. Enter fifth prior trading session open, force exit prior-session close. Stop one prior20 mean daily range below entry, target three above; gap stop at min(open,stop), stop first on dual-hit bar, target limit. All-adjusted SIP through Sep10; train2024–25, chronological holdout2026. Fees5bp plus slippage25bp each side. Vectorbt longonly from_orders, two marks/day, entry/exit prices explicit; assert trade count and compounded manual net returns match <1e-8. Preliminary BOTH-direction bug was corrected before publication; erroneous reversal output discarded. Premises: historical runups positive; selection and tiny sample mean uncertain predictive edge. Mean95% event bootstrap CI [-0.4535044521155866,3.6226119078948753]%, 20000 resamples seed91102; N2 interval misses population uncertainty. Conclusion WATCH/PAPER only, not eligible live: no independent evidence for +2R quarter/trail exits, no calibrated gap-tail/full-company risk, current model net3R fails. The current gas-sales transition is a regime change, cannot assume preproduction events representative. HalfKelly positive training fraction unstable; holdout without losses has undefined Kelly (reported approved allocation0, not estimate). No order; proposed Sep18 paper entry requires actual prints then Sep24 exit before Sep25 US AM.

Frozen note2123 before historical prices. Issuer eight earnings dates 2024-09-20,2024-11-12,2025-02-12,2025-05-14,2025-09-25,2025-11-13,2026-02-11,2026-05-13 from https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; release originals detail13/14/20/36/38/45. Enter fifth prior trading session open, force exit prior-session close. No barriers; time-only control. All-adjusted SIP through Sep10; train2024–25, chronological holdout2026. Fees5bp plus slippage45bp each side. Vectorbt longonly from_orders, two marks/day, entry/exit prices explicit; assert trade count and compounded manual net returns match <1e-8. Preliminary BOTH-direction bug was corrected before publication; erroneous reversal output discarded. Premises: historical runups positive; selection and tiny sample mean uncertain predictive edge. Mean95% event bootstrap CI [1.8919149420659975,2.5688714251883793]%, 20000 resamples seed91102; N2 interval misses population uncertainty. Conclusion WATCH/PAPER only, not eligible live: no independent evidence for +2R quarter/trail exits, no calibrated gap-tail/full-company risk, current model net3R fails. The current gas-sales transition is a regime change, cannot assume preproduction events representative. HalfKelly positive training fraction unstable; holdout without losses has undefined Kelly (reported approved allocation0, not estimate). No order; proposed Sep18 paper entry requires actual prints then Sep24 exit before Sep25 US AM.

Frozen note2123 before historical prices. Issuer eight earnings dates 2024-09-20,2024-11-12,2025-02-12,2025-05-14,2025-09-25,2025-11-13,2026-02-11,2026-05-13 from https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; release originals detail13/14/20/36/38/45. Enter fifth prior trading session open, force exit prior-session close. No barriers; time-only control. All-adjusted SIP through Sep10; train2024–25, chronological holdout2026. Fees5bp plus slippage45bp each side. Vectorbt longonly from_orders, two marks/day, entry/exit prices explicit; assert trade count and compounded manual net returns match <1e-8. Preliminary BOTH-direction bug was corrected before publication; erroneous reversal output discarded. Premises: historical runups positive; selection and tiny sample mean uncertain predictive edge. Mean95% event bootstrap CI [-0.851148076970896,3.2089441420326583]%, 20000 resamples seed91102; N2 interval misses population uncertainty. Conclusion WATCH/PAPER only, not eligible live: no independent evidence for +2R quarter/trail exits, no calibrated gap-tail/full-company risk, current model net3R fails. The current gas-sales transition is a regime change, cannot assume preproduction events representative. HalfKelly positive training fraction unstable; holdout without losses has undefined Kelly (reported approved allocation0, not estimate). No order; proposed Sep18 paper entry requires actual prints then Sep24 exit before Sep25 US AM.

Frozen note2123 before historical prices. Issuer eight earnings dates 2024-09-20,2024-11-12,2025-02-12,2025-05-14,2025-09-25,2025-11-13,2026-02-11,2026-05-13 from https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; release originals detail13/14/20/36/38/45. Enter fifth prior trading session open, force exit prior-session close. No barriers; time-only control. All-adjusted SIP through Sep10; train2024–25, chronological holdout2026. Fees5bp plus slippage25bp each side. Vectorbt longonly from_orders, two marks/day, entry/exit prices explicit; assert trade count and compounded manual net returns match <1e-8. Preliminary BOTH-direction bug was corrected before publication; erroneous reversal output discarded. Premises: historical runups positive; selection and tiny sample mean uncertain predictive edge. Mean95% event bootstrap CI [2.300303974275275,2.9799737404206494]%, 20000 resamples seed91102; N2 interval misses population uncertainty. Conclusion WATCH/PAPER only, not eligible live: no independent evidence for +2R quarter/trail exits, no calibrated gap-tail/full-company risk, current model net3R fails. The current gas-sales transition is a regime change, cannot assume preproduction events representative. HalfKelly positive training fraction unstable; holdout without losses has undefined Kelly (reported approved allocation0, not estimate). No order; proposed Sep18 paper entry requires actual prints then Sep24 exit before Sep25 US AM.

Frozen note2123 before historical prices. Issuer eight earnings dates 2024-09-20,2024-11-12,2025-02-12,2025-05-14,2025-09-25,2025-11-13,2026-02-11,2026-05-13 from https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; release originals detail13/14/20/36/38/45. Enter fifth prior trading session open, force exit prior-session close. No barriers; time-only control. All-adjusted SIP through Sep10; train2024–25, chronological holdout2026. Fees5bp plus slippage25bp each side. Vectorbt longonly from_orders, two marks/day, entry/exit prices explicit; assert trade count and compounded manual net returns match <1e-8. Preliminary BOTH-direction bug was corrected before publication; erroneous reversal output discarded. Premises: historical runups positive; selection and tiny sample mean uncertain predictive edge. Mean95% event bootstrap CI [-0.453753409253325,3.6226119078948753]%, 20000 resamples seed91102; N2 interval misses population uncertainty. Conclusion WATCH/PAPER only, not eligible live: no independent evidence for +2R quarter/trail exits, no calibrated gap-tail/full-company risk, current model net3R fails. The current gas-sales transition is a regime change, cannot assume preproduction events representative. HalfKelly positive training fraction unstable; holdout without losses has undefined Kelly (reported approved allocation0, not estimate). No order; proposed Sep18 paper entry requires actual prints then Sep24 exit before Sep25 US AM.

Startstate49.14Catalystcash,noopen/pending/closing. Goal documentedearnings/FDA runupwithpre-eventexit anddefensible>=3R. Bindingconstraint validatednetexpectancy andgap-awareimplementation, notcapitalrecovery. 1 Re-readcostedvectorbtbacktest1928(EPM):training-6.5511%,holdout+3.8230%,DD3.9565%,wins66.667%,N6,meanCI[-1.77895,3.06512]%; CLI1940-51.8445%N109 diagnosticnotedge. ExistingSFIX1087training-36.4031%N20/holdout+45.5628%N10,stressCIcross0; no re-runs orretuning withoutnewvalidityreason. 2 New2333range modelnegativeaftercosts; cannot rescuefailedtraining orjustifyinventedtarget. PreserveoriginalEPM1.5Rpaper. 3 AZOSep22BMOnewconfirmeddate,2881.47share>49.14book,atmost.01705fractionwithoutcosts; fractionalRTHexitpossiblebutnoeventtest or3Rtargetyet, rejectproposalnotinstrument. 4 FDAdateonly/earlyoutcome risk persists; alreadyreportedearningsnotnewrunups; CPRTbodyaccessgap. Conclusionnoorders/exitmoves;cashchosenbecause reviewedcandidates lackvalidatedasymmetricpayoff. Validity: unmetentryconditions implyrejection; soundnesslimitedtoreviewedsources, notproofwholemarketnoedge. CountercaseEPMnewroyaltycashandAZOsetupcouldrally; requireindependentprospectiveevidence,notselectedholdout. HalfKellyapproved0; no misuseof.1276riskfractionorprevious3.91capitalfraction. Monthly349.01excluded. Monitors232/233resolved,235/236armed02UTC;fiveexistingcollectorspreserved,no duplicatejob. Gaps:CPRTfullresults/agreement/publiccall,ORCL/ADBEcallincrementals,LOVEoldrefundbridge,SRRKreplay,originalEPMvolume/exdate,AZOcostedhistoricaldates. Sources runway:query_research?fund=catalyst&analysisKind=backtest ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 ; https://investors.autozone.com/news-releases/news-release-details/autozone-release-fourth-quarter-fiscal-2026-earnings-september ; https://telixpharma.com/feed/ ; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000900075.json .

Noopenholdings; theseattackwatchtheses. EPM:1commodity/royaltycashmayundershoot;2dividend/acquisitioncashdrawforcesfinancing;3dilution/interestreducepersharecash despiteheadlineyield. Bull: newwellcashcanrepaircoverage. TLX/SRRK:1approvalorCMCdisappointment;2launchcashdeferredwhiletrial/manufacturingcostscontinue;3financingandotherpipelinevaluationscanamplifygap. Bull: successfulreview/commercialplatformcancreateupside; latestRSSnoupdateisnotpendingproof. CPRT:1proposedACVAacquisitionusescash;2integrationandregulatoryconditionsdelaybenefits;3returnoncapitalmaylagissueraccretionstory; bullnetworkbenefitspossible,butfullQ4andagreementunreadable. AZO:1datedearningsattractsattention;2unexpectedmargins/cashdeterminepricing;3capitalreturnbenefitdepends onorganicreturns, datealonenotedge; no newfundamentalsassumed. SFIX:1improvingrevenuemayrequirepromotions;2retention/inventorycostscanaffectcash;3uncashbackedgrowthmayreverserunup; conditionalrisknotassertednewfact. Beneficiaries: dividendholders/financingproviders, manufacturers, tenderholders; issuerpromotionalincentivesrequirecashchecks. Sources https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-reports-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-results ; https://telixpharma.com/feed/ ; https://investors.scholarrock.com/rss/news-releases.xml ; https://investors.acvauto.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/113/copart-to-acquire-acv-expanding-position-across-the-vehicle-remarketing-ecosystem ; https://investors.autozone.com/news-releases/news-release-details/autozone-release-fourth-quarter-fiscal-2026-earnings-september ; runway:analysis/1087 .

1 LatestreviewedfinancialperiodMar31quarter: OCF3.489m-cashcapex1.263m=2.226m versusdiv4.261m;52.24%coverage. Nine-month10.799mFCF/12.613mdiv=85.62%. 2 Q3equity3.594mnetand2mnewborrowings coincidewith6.697mOCFlessallinvestinglessdiv deficit;cannot earmarkindividualfundingdollars. Cash2.616m/debt56.5m and6.78%rate constrain. 3 Sep10declaration.12,recordSep21/paySep30, establishes obligation notcoverage; 12.5%annualizedyieldat3.84 assumes4unchangedpayments. Bearcase commodityweakness orroyaltydelays leave payouts competing withdebt/acquisitionfunding. Strongcountercase forecast23royaltywells andcapital-lightmix improveQ4cash; Marchisold, no claimcurrentcoverageunchanged. Incurredcapex1.6m versuscash1.263m aredifferentdefinitions. UpdateonSep15AMCactualcash,notdividendheadline. Sources https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-reports-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-results ; https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-declares-012-share-cash-dividend-fiscal-q1 .

1 Frozen note2087 beforecomputation: 60completedSIPdailylogreturns, twofuture sessions52quarterhourincrements,50000paths seed2026091100, vol2.771389%daily. Start3.84,stop1oldADR lower,target3oldADR higher; stopfillsatobservedcrossingprice,targetatlimit,timeat52ndstep,30bp/sidefees+slippageassumption. 2 Zerologdrift target2.796%/stop40.284%/time56.92%,netmean-.529246%;samplelogdrift-.0172713%/day target2.624%/stop41.128%,netmean-.587239%. Empiricaltwo-dayIIDterminalbootstrap p05/median/p95=3.62895/3.84074/4.06270; .72%terminalabovetarget notfirstpassage. 3 Gross3R onlynet2.31196R aftercosts. Conclusion approved0; do not compute positivecapitalKelly fromnegativeexpectedmodel. Countercase catalystjump/fattails/regimechange could invalidateGBM; modelomitsgap/weekendnews/dependence/parameteruncertainty andisNOTeventodds,backtest,15minexecutionvalidation orpaperretune. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; note2087 .

1 Sep10daily unchangedO3.73/H3.87/L3.675/C3.84; positiveclose aboveSMA20/50 withRSI59.71supports improvingprice. 2 Volume.831xprior20average doesnotconfirm unusualparticipation;13postauction1minbars total14509shares end22:41at3.8113 sparseanddelayed. 3 Frozenpaper3.73/stop3.61876/target3.89686/Sep14close remainsunchanged,noobservedhit; afterhoursnotsplicedintoRTHexperiment. Conclusion preservepaper; do not reset liveexits because noneexist. Strongbullcountercase trendmaycontinue; indicatorconfluence isnotbacktest ofnew>=3R rule. SIPend23:40UTCsucceededwherecurrentend403; old13182volumediscrepancy unresolved. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all .