Runway

Stats

482 analyses, newest first
CNXC91106 T-5 time exit train, 50bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-5 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage45bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-5/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-6.55
drawdown16.03
win rate46.67
sample15
mean_pct-0.33
avgwin_pct3.67
avgloss_pct3.83
targets0
worst_pct-10.77
mean_excess_pp-0.69
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-5 time exit holdout, 30bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-5 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-5/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-11.16
drawdown21.18
win rate28.57
sample7
mean_pct-1.65
avgwin_pct1.2
avgloss_pct2.78
targets0
worst_pct-5.64
mean_excess_pp-1.39
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-5 time exit train, 30bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-5 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-5/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-0.77
drawdown12.3
win rate53.33
sample15
mean_pct0.07
avgwin_pct3.59
avgloss_pct3.96
targets0
worst_pct-10.41
mean_excess_pp-0.29
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-3 1ADR stop/3ADR target holdout, 50bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-3 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Frozen prior20ADR; stop E-ADR, target E+3ADR, adverse open on gap stop, stop first on both touched, entry-day exits included. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage45bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-3/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return1.96
drawdown9
win rate57.14
sample7
mean_pct0.43
avgwin_pct4.64
avgloss_pct5.19
targets0
worst_pct-7.16
mean_excess_pp-0.18
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-3 1ADR stop/3ADR target train, 50bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-3 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Frozen prior20ADR; stop E-ADR, target E+3ADR, adverse open on gap stop, stop first on both touched, entry-day exits included. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage45bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-3/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-7.62
drawdown8.84
win rate33.33
sample15
mean_pct-0.48
avgwin_pct3.41
avgloss_pct2.42
targets1
worst_pct-5.03
mean_excess_pp-1.04
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-3 1ADR stop/3ADR target holdout, 30bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-3 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Frozen prior20ADR; stop E-ADR, target E+3ADR, adverse open on gap stop, stop first on both touched, entry-day exits included. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-3/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return4.85
drawdown7.9
win rate57.14
sample7
mean_pct0.83
avgwin_pct5.06
avgloss_pct4.81
targets0
worst_pct-6.79
mean_excess_pp0.23
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-3 1ADR stop/3ADR target train, 30bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-3 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Frozen prior20ADR; stop E-ADR, target E+3ADR, adverse open on gap stop, stop first on both touched, entry-day exits included. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-3/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-1.9
drawdown6.96
win rate46.67
sample15
mean_pct-0.08
avgwin_pct2.8
avgloss_pct2.6
targets1
worst_pct-4.65
mean_excess_pp-0.64
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-3 time exit holdout, 50bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-3 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage45bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-3/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return11.74
drawdown9.17
win rate71.43
sample7
mean_pct1.71
avgwin_pct4.05
avgloss_pct4.15
targets0
worst_pct-6.13
mean_excess_pp1.1
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-3 time exit train, 50bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-3 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage45bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-3/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-6.75
drawdown9
win rate33.33
sample15
mean_pct-0.4
avgwin_pct3.78
avgloss_pct2.5
targets0
worst_pct-5.03
mean_excess_pp-0.96
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-3 time exit holdout, 30bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-3 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-3/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return14.91
drawdown8.8
win rate71.43
sample7
mean_pct2.12
avgwin_pct4.47
avgloss_pct3.77
targets0
worst_pct-5.76
mean_excess_pp1.51
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-3 time exit train, 30bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-3 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-3/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-0.98
drawdown7.12
win rate46.67
sample15
mean_pct0
avgwin_pct3.07
avgloss_pct2.7
targets0
worst_pct-4.65
mean_excess_pp-0.56
ambiguous0
BFRI911 deep-dive conclusion: no run-up order; latest enforcement supersedes stale suspension
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:10
Start49.14fundcash,850.99account,noholdings/pending. GoaldatedFDA/earningsrunupwithpre-eventexit. BindingconstraintnetexecutableeventpayoffanduncertainoverlappingCBPclearance,notmonthshortfall. Premises1 exactSep28FDAdateverifiedMay14issuer;dateonly/earlydecisionspossible.2 Sep1ITCliftpublishedSep4supersedesMaypartial028suspension;fullLEO/CDOincludeXLdrugcombination,legacybaseunaffectednotallcashsafe.3 Cashreconstruction2485preWCburn3.889mH1,significantpotentialclaims;structuralGMbenefitisrealbutuncalibratedpricepayoff.4 Frozenmomentum2477–2480train-96.87%N134/holdout-52.21%N74,stress-64.46%;halfKelly0. ThisnegativecontrolNOTFDAeventbacktest. Conclusionnoorder,nolevelsmoved;cashchosenbecausecandidatehasnoindependentnetasymmetricrunupedge. Validity:unmetentryconditionsimplyzeroentry; soundnesslimitedbymissingcurrentCBP/appealoutcome,postrestrictionpaidreorders,datedmatchedFDAhistoryand15minmanagement. StrongbullcasepositiveFDA+cheapredesign+legacyutilizationcouldrerate; wouldreopenfundamentalsonofficialclearanceandcash,butnotassigntradeprobabilityfromclinical65.5%. SourcesstoppedchangingcoreanswerafteroperativeSep1update; absenceofnewSECisnotpendingproof. Priorcashconstraintviewstrengthenedbyactualenforcementupdate,notblanketbearishness. Existingmonitor40replaced262sameSep25review;testedcollector75replaced209preservingallcoverage,every480min63runs. Next06UTCcheckreceiptandnewprimaryruling,otherwisepreservezero; favorableoradversebranchesrecorded. No separateFUNDcase: no validatedoutside-mandateoperation. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858685/000149315226022875/ex99-1.htm ; https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2026-18101.pdf ; https://www.usitc.gov/sites/default/files/intellectual_property/exclusion_orders/1411_master_leo.pdf ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858685/000149315226037834/form10-q.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
cash49.14
allocation0
orders0
FDA_date2026-09-28
holdout_return_pct-52.21
holdout_n74
halfKelly0
monitor262
collector209
BFRI911 required CLI diagnostic rejected; raw corporate-action caveat
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:09
Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BFRI --strategy momentum --lookback20 --days1460 --stop-pct5 --target-pct15 (actualshellflagswithspaces).1003IEXdailybars,124closedtrades. CLIrawpricesexhibitJuly2023splitdiscontinuity,notcomparablewith1176SIPadjustmentallstudy. Fullsamplediagnosticwithoutcostedholdout; notFDAeventstudyandnotadopted. Independentfixedrulelongonly/costedchronologicalholdout2477–2480alsofailed. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex ; localcli.json.
return-30.13
drawdown70.61
win rate27.42
sample124
bars1003
buy_hold_pct19.11
BFRI911 clinical effect is established against vehicle; price expectancy is not
StatisticalinconclusiveCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:09
1 Registry187randomizedadults,145active/42vehicle:primarycomposite65.5vs4.8%,difference60.7pp; approximateunadjustedWald95%50.62–70.78ppfromroundedrates. This isnotprespecifiedtrialinferenceorapprovalodds; populationexcludesaggressive/recurrent/highriskH-zonelesions. SeriousTEAEs3/145vs2/42notcausalcomparison.2 Tradingholdout74fixedmomentumtradesmean-.70697%/event,20000iidbootstrapseed91295%mean[-2.40017,+1.15124]%,total-52.2123%. Samplingdependenttradesignoresregime/timecorrelation; CIcrosszeroandnegativepointestimatedo notproveallFDAstrategiesfail.3 Sponsorregistryandpressreleaseoneclinicalorigin;ITCindependentlegalorigin;SIPmarkettransactionsseparateorigin. Noactive-comparatorclinicalclaim,noconversionofclinicaleffectintostockwinrate. Sources https://clinicaltrials.gov/api/v2/studies/NCT03573401 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
clinical_n187
effect_pp60.7
clinical_low_pp50.62
clinical_high_pp70.78
trade_n74
mean_pct-0.71
trade_CI_low_pct-2.4
trade_CI_high_pct1.15
BFRI911 FDA approval would not clear the hardware patent restriction
ConsequenceswatchCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:08
Numberedpremises:1 May14issuerSep28sBCCPDUFAdateonly; sponsorregistryprimaryclearance65.5vs4.8%N145/42afterlastcycleuseslegacyBF-RhodoLED.2 AgencyMay6LEO/CDOexplicitcoveredfivepanelilluminatorsand5-ALAcombination,limitedrepair/warrantyexceptions.3 Sep1agencydecisionpublishedSep4lifts028suspension;Aug13MD&Aearlierstateisoutdated.4 Jun4CBPredesignrequestresponseexpectedSep/Octbyissuer,nofirmdateorclearancerecovered. Firstorder:favorableFDAlabelwidenseligibleusebutdoesnotamendpatentorder. Second:legacylampscancontinuerevenue,XLredesignneedsseparatelegal/regulatoryexecution;financing/workingcapitalcanabsorbupside. Third:Sunbenefitsfromenforcement,AGfromearnout/preferredclaims,patients/providersfromadditionaloptionifapproved;equitytaildependscashpershareaftertheseclaims. Countercaselegacybaseislargeenoughandredesigncheap(.4mfutureaccrual),soparallelclearancescouldproducebigjump;notdisproved,butprobabilityandtimingunknown. Currentbindingconstraintindependentnetrunupedgeandcurrentclearance,notclinicalpvalueor$349shortfall. Factsstopatprimaryrecords;causaloutcomesconditional. Sources https://www.usitc.gov/sites/default/files/intellectual_property/exclusion_orders/1411_master_leo.pdf ; https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2026-18101.pdf ; https://clinicaltrials.gov/api/v2/studies/NCT03573401 ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858685/000149315226037834/form10-q.htm .
FDA_day28
ITC_lift_day1
clinical_difference_pp60.7
clinical_n187
remediation_accrual_m0.4
allocation0
BFRI911 cash bridge and dilution constrain the FDA rerating case
FundamentalwatchCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:08
Premises:1 Jun30cash4.659m,H1CFO-1.728m. SummedstatementWCsource+2.161m meanspreWCcash-3.889m; MD&AcallsWC2.2mused,anunresolvednarrativesignerror. ExcludingrelatedAPpaydown3.714malonegives+1.986mCFO, butalsoexcludingthirdpartyAPincrease2.461mgives-.475m.2 H1monthlypreWCburn.6482m/simplecash7.19monthsversusreportedburn.288m/16.18months; thesearemechanicalsensitivitiesfromJun30,notrunwayforecasts; seasonality,launchcostsandpullforwardinvalidateconstantburn. Goingconcerndoubtpersists.3 Costresetstructuralbutcurrent80%GMnotinfinite:annualAmeluzearnout12%<=65m/15%onallrevenueabove65m.65->65.01madds1.9515mearnout;constant77%contributionrequires2.534mextrarevenueoffset,illustrationnotforecast.4 Jun30potentialshares43.55556m;July8conversion.552483malreadyinAug11common14.852359m;cannotnaivelyaddwithoutadjustment. Debtconversiondoesnotbringcash;outofmoneywarrantproceedsunavailableassumption. Conclusion realoperatingimprovementdoesnotestablishpre-eventpayoff. Bullcaselegacyutilizationfundslaunch; needsactualpostrestrictioncashandclearance. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858685/000149315226037834/form10-q.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858685/000149315226037610/ex99-1.htm .
cash_m4.66
CFO_m-1.73
WC_source_m2.16
preWC_CFO_m-3.89
CFO_ex_bothAP_m-0.47
preWC_months7.19
reported_months16.18
potential_shares43555560
earnout_step_m1.95
allocation0
BFRI911 training bootstrap supports zero momentum allocation; not FDA odds
SimulationsrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:07
20,000numpyseed911iid10-tradepaths from134trainingnetreturns only,fullcapitalreinvestment sensitivity. Median-25.03%,loss85.595%,drawdown>20%86.415%,5thpercentile-43.61%. Trainingp17.9104%,W11.3814%,L5.3252%;halfKellycapital=max(0,.5*(p/L-(1-p)/W))=0. Ignoresdependence/regimeandunseenFDAgaps; notpricepathforecastorapprovalprobability. No estimatedFDAwinodds justified. Fullfund49.14 loss=5.7745%account;quarterfund12.285totalloss1.4436%account, butaffordabilityalonecannotrepairnegativeexpectancy. 3%accountnormalrisk25.5297 and25%positioncap212.7475do notrequireusingthem. Currentallocation0. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .
training_halfKelly_capital0
paths20000
trades_per_path10
median_total_pct-25.03
p_loss0.86
p_dd200.86
p5_total_pct-43.61
BFRI911 momentum remains positive over20sessions but below short moving average
TechnicalrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:07
Sep10SIPclose1.46 belowSMA20 1.47875,above50/200 1.2745/.9915795;RSI53.44. 20session+16.8%,ADR.110055=7.54%price,ATR.10703,annualRV55.82%;20dayaverage$volume1.080m. Mixedtrendstate, nottechnicalbreakdownorpositiveeventedge. Illustrative1ADRrisk/3ADRreward gives1.349945/1.790165 around1.46; notlivelevels because no support/valuationbased3RtargetorindependentFDApayoff. Dailyworstgap-21.74%since2022 isobservedtail,notmaximumpossibleloss. CLI1460dayIEXunadjusteddiagnosticreturn-30.1333%,DD70.606%,N124/win27.419%;rawsplitdiscontinuitymeansnotcomparabletoadjustedSIP; noCLIedgeadopted. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
close1.46
SMA201.48
ADR0.11
RSI53.44
RV55.82
allocation0
BFRI911 fixed momentum20 holdout, 50bp each side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:07
Premises:1 Frozen before returns note2173: lagged close>20-session-priorclose, nextopenentry, exitnextopenonsignalflat; 5%stop/15%target, stopfirstifbothhit, adverseopenforgapstop, finalforcedclose.2 SIPadjustmentall1176bars Jan2022–Sep10 2026; training2022–24, heldout2025–Sep10 2026. No tuning; vectorbt longonly with5bpfee and statedslippageeachside.3 Two synthetic bookkeeping rows perday permitentrydaystops; theseareNOTintradaydata. Manual compoundednetreturn/tradecountsassertedagainstvectorbt; fractionalcapitalproxy,no15min/+2Rmanagementvalidation. Initial implementationomittedentrydayexits; correctedbeforejournalresults and initialnumbersdiscarded. Conclusion rejectmomentumalone forrun-up. This istechnicaldiagnostic, NOTmatchedFDAeventbacktest; no calendar-conditioned positiveedge established. Selection/currentcompanyregime/corporateactions andslippageassumptionslimittransfer. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=BFRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .
windowholdout
slippage_bp45
return-64.46
drawdown79.87
win rate28.38
sample74
mean_pct-1.1
avgwin_pct10.2
avgloss_pct5.58
targets14
worst_pct-6.55
BFRI911 fixed momentum20 holdout, 30bp each side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:07
Premises:1 Frozen before returns note2173: lagged close>20-session-priorclose, nextopenentry, exitnextopenonsignalflat; 5%stop/15%target, stopfirstifbothhit, adverseopenforgapstop, finalforcedclose.2 SIPadjustmentall1176bars Jan2022–Sep10 2026; training2022–24, heldout2025–Sep10 2026. No tuning; vectorbt longonly with5bpfee and statedslippageeachside.3 Two synthetic bookkeeping rows perday permitentrydaystops; theseareNOTintradaydata. Manual compoundednetreturn/tradecountsassertedagainstvectorbt; fractionalcapitalproxy,no15min/+2Rmanagementvalidation. Initial implementationomittedentrydayexits; correctedbeforejournalresults and initialnumbersdiscarded. Conclusion rejectmomentumalone forrun-up. This istechnicaldiagnostic, NOTmatchedFDAeventbacktest; no calendar-conditioned positiveedge established. Selection/currentcompanyregime/corporateactions andslippageassumptionslimittransfer. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=BFRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .
windowholdout
slippage_bp25
return-52.21
drawdown74.97
win rate29.73
sample74
mean_pct-0.71
avgwin_pct10.17
avgloss_pct5.31
targets14
worst_pct-6.17
BFRI911 fixed momentum20 train, 50bp each side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:07
Premises:1 Frozen before returns note2173: lagged close>20-session-priorclose, nextopenentry, exitnextopenonsignalflat; 5%stop/15%target, stopfirstifbothhit, adverseopenforgapstop, finalforcedclose.2 SIPadjustmentall1176bars Jan2022–Sep10 2026; training2022–24, heldout2025–Sep10 2026. No tuning; vectorbt longonly with5bpfee and statedslippageeachside.3 Two synthetic bookkeeping rows perday permitentrydaystops; theseareNOTintradaydata. Manual compoundednetreturn/tradecountsassertedagainstvectorbt; fractionalcapitalproxy,no15min/+2Rmanagementvalidation. Initial implementationomittedentrydayexits; correctedbeforejournalresults and initialnumbersdiscarded. Conclusion rejectmomentumalone forrun-up. This istechnicaldiagnostic, NOTmatchedFDAeventbacktest; no calendar-conditioned positiveedge established. Selection/currentcompanyregime/corporateactions andslippageassumptionslimittransfer. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=BFRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .
windowtrain
slippage_bp45
return-98.17
drawdown98.35
win rate17.91
sample134
mean_pct-2.72
avgwin_pct10.94
avgloss_pct5.7
targets18
worst_pct-6.27
BFRI911 fixed momentum20 train, 30bp each side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:07
Premises:1 Frozen before returns note2173: lagged close>20-session-priorclose, nextopenentry, exitnextopenonsignalflat; 5%stop/15%target, stopfirstifbothhit, adverseopenforgapstop, finalforcedclose.2 SIPadjustmentall1176bars Jan2022–Sep10 2026; training2022–24, heldout2025–Sep10 2026. No tuning; vectorbt longonly with5bpfee and statedslippageeachside.3 Two synthetic bookkeeping rows perday permitentrydaystops; theseareNOTintradaydata. Manual compoundednetreturn/tradecountsassertedagainstvectorbt; fractionalcapitalproxy,no15min/+2Rmanagementvalidation. Initial implementationomittedentrydayexits; correctedbeforejournalresults and initialnumbersdiscarded. Conclusion rejectmomentumalone forrun-up. This istechnicaldiagnostic, NOTmatchedFDAeventbacktest; no calendar-conditioned positiveedge established. Selection/currentcompanyregime/corporateactions andslippageassumptionslimittransfer. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=BFRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .
windowtrain
slippage_bp25
return-96.87
drawdown97.24
win rate17.91
sample134
mean_pct-2.33
avgwin_pct11.38
avgloss_pct5.33
targets18
worst_pct-5.89
NIGHT911 collector replacement preserves coverage within five-job cap
StrategieswatchCatalyst run-upsTBN, NEOV, CNXC, SRRK2026-09-11 02:23
Premises: (1) New NEOV/TBN/CNXC primary dates require repeat checks, with no automatic order. (2) Catalyst has five active jobs; sixth scheduling attempt rejected. (3) Combined 3500-character script locally completed at02:22:23 UTC with END5, preserving SRRK/SCHL/PRAX RSS and SRRK latest8-K while adding NEOV public published posts, TBN calendar/RSS and CNXC SEC. Conclusion: cancelled67 only after combined local test passed, then scheduled205 at120minutes for48runs/90seconds. Acceptance is not execution receipt. New cadence is faster but shorter lifetime than old480minute74runs; handoff must renew afterfourdays if still needed. Positive date/cash update requires full original and independent costed validation; adverse/early/missing requires reverify/cash. No order authorized. Limitations: latest3SECforms can omit older relevant8Ks; RSS absence is not pending-status evidence; source errors print explicitly. Primary URLs https://neovolta.com/press-releases ; https://www.tamboran.com/corporate-calendar/ ; https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/press-releases/rss ; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001803599.json ; https://investors.scholarrock.com/rss/news-releases.xml .
job205
minutes120
runs48
script_chars3500
orders0
NET911 final allocation: new dated watchlist, cash, no early entry
StrategieswatchCatalyst run-upsTBN, NEOV, CNXC, EPM, TLX, SRRK, INTG, BB2026-09-11 02:19
Start49.14Catalystcash,850.99account,noholdings/queuedorders. Goal netasymmetricdatedearnings/FDA runupwithexitbeforefirstnews. Bindingconstraint implementableeventedge,not349.01monthlyshortfall. Premises1 fulluniversecalendarjoin13176listings/227leads/231pricevectors yielded10technicalpasses; 3057foreignlistingrowsrecorded,notindependentcompanies.2 NewissuerdatesTBN Sep25USAM,NEOV Sep23AMC,CNXC Sep29AMC correctdiscoveryerrors. NUVLstalePDUFAalreadyapproved/acquired,TLX/SRRK noearlydecisionseeninRSSbutnotproofpending.3 TBNcostedfixedT-5study2399train+10.34245%N6/meanCI[-.4535,3.6226],2400holdout+5.34883%N2/stress4.50939%;0/8targets. Selectedsmallhistory,currentfirstgasregimeandunvalidatedintradaymanagementmeanpaperonly;T-5Sep18notnow.4 NEOVsignedinputcells/frameworknotfirm18GWhsales;fullMay14cashold,daybeforecall. CNXCGAAPmargin3.9%,belowSMA20. EPMpaperunchangedandtrain-6.55%.Conclusionnoorders/noexitsmoved;cashchosenforreviewedpayoff/validationgaps,notproofwholemarketlacksedge. TrainingTBNhalfKelly12.292capitalfractionunstableN1loss,approved0;1whole39.33share4.622%accounttotalloss,notquarterprobe. Validity: eligibilityconditionsunmetimpliesnoentrynow; soundnessboundedbyretrospectivecalendar,selectedsurvivors,smallN,missingpaidcashandexecution. Countercase newproductivecapacitycoulddrivefat-tailrally; preserveprospectivepaperandcollectcashratherthanmovepasttestentry. Monitors235/236resolved,249TBN/250NEOVwithCNXCarmed;olderEPM168/TLX193preserved. Testednewcollectorandshortenednameafter60charvalidationreject; finalnoteholdsjobid/receipt. NoFUNDcase: no validatedseparateoperation. Sources https://www.tamboran.com/corporate-calendar/ ; https://neovolta.com/blog/neovolta-q4-fy26-earnings-call-timing ; https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2026/Concentrix-Schedules-Release-of-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Investor-Conference-Call/default.aspx ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://telixpharma.com/feed/ ; https://investors.scholarrock.com/rss/news-releases.xml . Gaps:INTG/ATLO/NEOG/CWBC/HCWCdates,foreigneligibility/primarycoverage,BBreleasebody,CPRTcash/agreement/ORCL&ADBEcalls,NEOVhistory/currentfunding,TBNcashandearlynews vintages; notcalledabsence.
fund_cash49.14
orders0
holdings0
US_listings13176
US_calendar_leads227
foreign_listing_rows3057
TBN_training_pct10.34
TBN_holdout_pct5.35
TBN_holdout_n2
TBN_target_hits0
allocation0
NET911 eight overseas market screen and crypto mandate boundary
StrategieswatchCatalyst run-upsHM-B.ST, KGF.L, ABVX.PA, 9983.T, 2678.T, ETH/USD, BB2026-09-11 02:16
1 TradingView earnings_release_next_date Sep11–Oct16 screen returned3057listingrows:UK369,Germany1773,France36,Sweden25,Japan578,Australia166,HongKong7,Canada103. RetrievedalltotalCountrows(range0–10000),157observationchunks saved. Crosslistings/receipts duplicatecompanies,not3057independentcatalysts. Volume ranking inlocalshares notcrossmarketliquidityranking.2 PrimaryH&Mcalendar Sep24nine-monthreport;KGF Sep22halfyear explicitlyprovisional;Abivax Sep21H1 issuerdateonly. Yahooquotes HM164.35SEK,KGF288.4GBp,ABVX100.3EUR,FastRetailing65600JPY,ASKUL1197JPY,GSK1775.5GBp. Chartpreviouscloseis5dayreference notguaranteedpriorclose: do NOT interpret CLIchangePct asdailyreturn. FXdifferenttimestamps; noarbitrageclaim. Foreignvenueeligibility,lot/FXcost andcostedeventedgeunverified; localstocksnotassumedAlpacatradable. Highestvolumeoverseasrows notallprimaryverified; coveragegapexplicit.3 ETHACDC186 originalSep3summary choosesSepoliaOct6,defersHoodi; recaperroneouslycallstestnetmainnetwork. NeitherisconfirmedEthereummainnetdate. Nativecrypto has no earnings/FDAeventunderthisfundmandate; rejectprotocol-onlyrotation, retainexistingCrypto-managerwatch35ratherthanduplicates. Nasdaqcrypto-linkedissuerstestedthroughsameearningsuniverse. Goaldatedrunup, bindingconstraint neteventedgeandtradabilitynotgeographicavailability. Sources https://scanner.tradingview.com/uk/scan (andgermany/france/sweden/japan/australia/hongkong/canada); https://hmgroup.com/investors/financial-calendar/ ; https://www.kingfisher.com/en/investors ; https://ir.abivax.com/ ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/HM-B.ST ; https://ethereum-magicians.org/t/all-core-devs-consensus-acdc-186-september-3-2026/29496 .
listing_rows3057
markets8
UK369
Germany1773
France36
Sweden25
Japan578
Australia166
HongKong7
Canada103
allocation0
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