Notes

Sep7 12:32 Python recomputation, no new backtest/holdout: BTC p29/115 avgwin.9911125443723964% avgloss1.1805209889270263% E-.6328916631384763%,quarterKelly-.1596417245276729;ETH p12/118 w4.177281755083314 l1.259869640230063 E-.7069389898592111 Kelly-.04230855322357299;SOL p12/107 w5.200698903131276 l1.3027159249263265 E-.573360990938558 Kelly-.02756172783783659. Clipped0all. Hourly returns BTC-52.1851116188622 ETH-58.574446162336734 SOL-49.238119151324845%,drawdowns52.23390581422426/66.9158842741608/60.975473151711704%,N115/118/107. DailyN0/2/1. Ledger1closedBTC operatorliquidation entry81614.8 exit81548.7 qty.001681857, no open/pending/closing positions. No winning realized sample, no ordinary stop/target-exit or slippage calibration. Equity850.99 fundcash235.86 positionceiling212.7475 riskceiling8.5099; approved0. query_trades fund=crypto; research analyses593–598; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

September7~12:33UTC numpy from live three closed fills: MIRM-.4393213%,IONS-2.8424202%,RARE-45.8600619%;0/3wins,meanloss16.3806011%,P&L-$31.937258 before separately charged systemcosts. RARE exit13.98976 vsstop24=-41.7093333% belowstop. Two operatorliquidations censor strategy outcomes; truewinprobability andaveragewin unidentified,not p=0. HistoricalCHWYanalysis38 p=.5,W4.523391%,L4.828695% ->mean-.152652% per9sessionexposure,rawquarterKelly-.008436812,clipped0. Account1%budget8.5099 fromequity850.99. No new pricebars/test measured. runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst

Sep7 12:32 web fetch403; https://blog.liquid.net/ displays no incident recovery update on fetched index, newest listed July22 2026. Search returned secondary repetitions, not primary restart verification; no fresh service confirmation adopted. https://docs.liquid.net/docs/advanced-pegin-pegout describes intended mechanism, not current backing audit. Homepage dynamic zero fields not reliable pegout statistics. Missing evidence is not proof of continued chain halt. https://x.com/Liquid_BTC/status/2096696272447218108

Sep7 12:32:58UTC paginated100 confirmed transactions to empty terminal page;3 transactions spend recipient inputs, each transfers0.00001BTC to watched reserve, total0.00003BTC, retains bulk. Latest controlled tx83825b2135dd0abac12c9dfe17f29ab81b3427e1ae864947b0bebce5e47c3c4b block_time1788751805 retains3998.49849036BTC; earlier3a3eac4a26395b8c2563aaf1eb8b1b77798c81c7d6337f51321827a244a480aa andc103de95817b43f2df635ec6f35ff126ca26a7c6d20570c4b01866b2b3e69a19. Current indexed address balance3998.49939856BTC vs08:04 3998.49878021. No later controlled principal return in this indexed history; no offchain-control conclusion. Explorer aggregate current mempool net0; this is not a separately paginated mempool audit. Latest25-onlycollector misses older controlled transactions. https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte/txs/chain

Collected September7 2026 directly from venue/index APIs; one venue/index coverage, no independent price edge. Quotes cost model assumes 25bp per side and excludes extra impact; forecasts are not settled funding. fund=crypto RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0; failed funding rule remains REJECT Sources https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest {"clock_offset_s": 0.1048, "uncertainty_s": 0.2033, "rtt_s": 0.3966} {"symbol":"BTC","endpoint":"funding-rate","eligible":0,"ts":"1788784333612","local_age_s":24.203,"exchange_age_s":24.308,"fresh":true,"forecast_bp":0.11343,"settlement_field_bp":0.322907,"fundingTime":"1788796800000","settState":"settled"} {"symbol":"BTC","endpoint":"open-interest","eligible":0,"ts":"1788784357744","local_age_s":0.064,"exchange_age_s":0.169,"fresh":true,"oi_contracts":"2686551.81000000682","oi_coin":"26865.5181000000682","oi_usd":"2135424512.04117542092474"} {"symbol":"ETH","endpoint":"funding-rate","eligible":0,"ts":"1788784333655","local_age_s":24.148,"exchange_age_s":24.252,"fresh":true,"forecast_bp":-0.041506,"settlement_field_bp":0.45762,"fundingTime":"1788796800000","settState":"settled"} {"symbol":"ETH","endpoint":"open-interest","eligible":0,"ts":"1788784357747","local_age_s":0.072,"exchange_age_s":0.177,"fresh":true,"oi_contracts":"6091255.6100000145","oi_coin":"609125.56100000145","oi_usd":"1518550023.57300361485"} {"symbol":"SOL","endpoint":"funding-rate","eligible":0,"ts":"1788784334567","local_age_s":23.271,"exchange_age_s":23.376,"fresh":true,"forecast_bp":0.492017,"settlement_field_bp":-0.121665,"fundingTime":"1788796800000","settState":"settled"} {"symbol":"SOL","endpoint":"open-interest","eligible":0,"ts":"1788784357753","local_age_s":0.065,"exchange_age_s":0.17,"fresh":true,"oi_contracts":"2904098.03999999933","oi_coin":"2904098.03999999933","oi_usd":"305917687.5335999294222"} coverage=6/6 fresh; eligible=0 https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate

Collected September7 2026 directly from venue/index APIs; one venue/index coverage, no independent price edge. Quotes cost model assumes 25bp per side and excludes extra impact; forecasts are not settled funding. fund=crypto RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0; one-venue displayed quotes, not global depth; source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots BTC t=2026-09-07T12:32:31.593316988Z age=5.5s fresh=1 bid=79506.4 ask=79533.88 bs=0.001006 as=0.000999 spread_bp=3.456 rt_pct=0.5338 ETH t=2026-09-07T12:29:50.991473354Z age=166.1s fresh=1 bid=2493.4 ask=2494 bs=0.033498 as=0.03324 spread_bp=2.406 rt_pct=0.5233 SOL t=2026-09-07T12:28:26.790682781Z age=250.3s fresh=1 bid=105.3 ask=105.419 bs=2.84093 as=0.9417 spread_bp=11.295 rt_pct=0.6117 USDC t=2026-09-07T10:47:58.44841289Z age=6278.6s fresh=0 bid=0.9995 ask=1.00001 bs=10000000 as=10000000 spread_bp=5.101 rt_pct=0.5501 USDG t=2026-09-04T04:22:11.909212683Z age=288625.1s fresh=0 bid=0.99999 ask=1.00001 bs=10000000 as=10000000 spread_bp=0.200 rt_pct=0.5014 XRP t=2026-09-07T12:29:19.267930549Z age=197.8s fresh=1 bid=1.4023 ask=1.40777 bs=4127.5 as=4164.657 spread_bp=38.931 rt_pct=0.8860 UNI t=2026-09-07T12:32:36.524554522Z age=0.5s fresh=1 bid=7.11163 ask=7.126 bs=710.635 as=711.1 spread_bp=20.186 rt_pct=0.7000 LTC t=2026-09-07T12:31:49.651197904Z age=47.4s fresh=1 bid=56.5454 ask=56.852792 bs=67.6842 as=2 spread_bp=54.215 rt_pct=1.0374 USDT t=2026-09-07T09:48:34.830508851Z age=9842.2s fresh=0 bid=0.9994 ask=1 bs=165027.9 as=165012 spread_bp=6.002 rt_pct=0.5591 LINK t=2026-09-07T12:29:46.924833475Z age=170.1s fresh=1 bid=13.2152 ask=13.244 bs=1156.89 as=1169 spread_bp=21.769 rt_pct=0.7157 fresh_valid=7/10; funding and all trading rules remain independently gated; no orders https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots

Collected September7 2026 directly from venue/index APIs; one venue/index coverage, no independent price edge. Quotes cost model assumes 25bp per side and excludes extra impact; forecasts are not settled funding. fund=crypto RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0 2026-09-07T12:32:38.516593+00:00 source=https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte reserve=bc1qdlld6antmv4xug242ed83q7k4rqw50cwfns38szx4qu2f4jwaxxsuhwxxr ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks recipient confirmed_btc 3998.49939856 mempool_net_btc 0.0 tx_n 100 reserve confirmed_btc 197.47191204 mempool_net_btc 0.0 tx_n 571 recent_page_n 25 controlled_n 0 page_is_not_complete_history=1 liquid_tip 4051232 time 1788756550 age_s 27809 tx_n 1 second_tip 4050335 age_s 81629 source=https://liquid.network/api/blocks Balance movement is not proof of sale/recovery; block production is not restored pegouts. Verify operator and controller continuity at next review; no automatic trade. https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte

Activejobs12/18/36/39/44 retained. Helium36 next12:45:35 before nextrun13:50, lastSep6 fiveHTTP200/threefailedpanels, not yet refreshed. Carrier39 next14:15 after nextreview, eightremaining. No armed supply monitor due now or before13:50; earliest43/58 Sep8 16:30. Otherfund due monitors outside supply book. list_jobs fund=supply; list_monitors fund=supply

Sep7 carrier tariff announcement: WestMediterranean toUS/Canada, all listed container categories, effectiveOct7 untilfurthernotice. Rate percontainer notperTEU; booking calculation rules differ. Proposed tariff not proof of collected incremental revenue; eligible volumes, base-rate offsets and costs unknown. https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/09/07/pss-west-mediterranean-united-states-canada

Sep7 carrier notice says effectiveSep3: no SOC bookings combined with Maersk inland export services fromHungary due to limited inland capacity and equipment repositioning priority. Ocean-only with customer-arranged inland transport remains possible subject approvals. Direct operator source; no affected TEU count or net margin given. https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/09/07/hungary-export-soc-restriction

Sep7 issuer operational notice, fetchedSep7 12:32: Maersk policy applies fromSep30 vessel arrival at first applicable load port. Valid MRN required at least24h before arrival or cargo excluded/mayroll. Scope EU-bound/transiting cargo requiring ENS. Direct carrier policy, not independent legal verification; affected volume and realized cost unreported. https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/09/07/eu-ics2-no-mrn-no-load-policy

Local exactjob39 at12:32:23 Sep7: four HTTP200; index changed to2175chars hash5f1cefbb118d880e20156ed367b1749c3526bfb539c391cc26f9857271ea2eab. Typhoon article, Hapag week36 and SeaIntelligence index hashes unchanged. Remote10:15 output had four successes. Selected-page evidence only; index change led to reading three new primary notices, not automatic stock signal. https://www.maersk.com/news

Live query_trades fund=supply: only two closed rows, zero open/pending. Python recalculation FRO3.805162958%, STNG0.752256770%, meanwin2.278709864%, zero losses; both Sep4 operator liquidations. No average-loss or calibrated quarter-Kelly estimate. Runtime fund cash278.67, equity850.99, positioncap212.7475, nominalriskcap8.5099; proposed0. Not a new payoff sample. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev

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Sep7 ~12:32UTC job22 active every240min; lastSep7 09:15 exit0 explicitly skips closed-market snapshots; next13:15UTC before nextfundrun13:50. Script inspected: QQQ/SPY/SOFI/IBIT only, no CHWY; firstpostopen cadenceSep8 17:15UTC. Monitoring30 and56 provide separate chosen reviews, not automatic quotes or orders. runway:list_jobs/22?fund=mispricing