04UTC primary adjustment and distribution evidence
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:04
Provider documentation retrieved2026-09-21: raw no adjustments; split adjusts price/volume; dividend adjusts cash dividends; all combines adjustments. SIP allUSexchanges; pagination next_page_token required. asof controls symbol identity, not historical adjustment vintage.
https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/reference/stockbars
EEM 04UTC primary adjustment and distribution evidence = 0.748036
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:04
Issuer retrieved2026-09-21: exDec20,2023, recordDec21,payDec27,income.748036/share; matches date of largest raw/all gap difference1.839892pp. Latest listed distributionJun15,2026 .350802 paidJun18.
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf
IWM 04UTC primary adjustment and distribution evidence = 0.750436
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:04
Issuer distribution table retrieved2026-09-21: ex/recordSep15,2026, payableSep18, income .750436/share. Own ledger empty, no entitlement. Latest raw and all close284.10; September15 raw/adjusted gap difference26.0008bp consistent with distribution effect, exact vendor adjustment formula not independently reconciled.
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239710/ishares-russell-2000-etf
{"paths":20000,"horizon":20,"n":1254,"q95":10.014484810783912,"q99":14.835991082595553,"maximum":14.835991082595553,"joint_stress":77.94269465148403}; IID synchronized daily gaps, worst one-day basket loss in20days; no stops/drift/costs, not strategy performance or maximum loss guarantee.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=raw
IWM 04UTC adjustment sensitivity and retained stress size = 28.421384363225883
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:03
Equity999.26,3% ceiling29.9778,fund280. Previous gap assumptions retained, not recalibrated to milder current sample. {"symbol":"IWM","raw_atr20":3.25925,"adjusted_atr20":3.2170000000000045,"atr_difference":0.04224999999999568,"size":93.33,"stop":277.666,"target":320.542353437563,"rr":5.6640275781105,"stress":28.421384363225883,"normal_stop_loss":2.1136403379091897,"sep15_raw_gap":-0.004480566843805378,"sep15_adjusted_gap":-0.0018804847471793895}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip
QQQ 04UTC adjustment sensitivity and retained stress size = 23.108077650841185
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:03
Equity999.26,3% ceiling29.9778,fund280. Previous gap assumptions retained, not recalibrated to milder current sample. {"symbol":"QQQ","raw_atr20":8.27367999999999,"adjusted_atr20":8.27367999999999,"atr_difference":0,"size":93.33,"stop":704.90264,"target":838.105554290121,"rr":7.049798535241943,"stress":23.108077650841185,"normal_stop_loss":2.1406405278259037,"sep15_raw_gap":-0.0005358301136524357,"sep15_adjusted_gap":-0.0005358301136524357}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip
EEM 04UTC adjustment sensitivity and retained stress size = 26.413232637416957
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:03
Equity999.26,3% ceiling29.9778,fund280. Previous gap assumptions retained, not recalibrated to milder current sample. {"symbol":"EEM","raw_atr20":0.9432499999999997,"adjusted_atr20":0.9432499999999997,"atr_difference":0,"size":93.33,"stop":65.1435,"target":74.21621874551062,"rr":3.809286374508678,"stress":26.413232637416957,"normal_stop_loss":2.626690213337311,"sep15_raw_gap":0.0019699954538567876,"sep15_adjusted_gap":0.0019699954538567876}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip
IWM 04UTC raw versus adjusted gap audit = 0.005129301099673578
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:03
Direct bars retrieved2026-09-21; matched 2021-09-21 through2026-09-18 raw, split and all series. {"symbol":"IWM","n":1254,"last_raw":284.1,"last_all":284.1,"last_factor":1,"raw_worst":-0.05274746314378698,"adjusted_worst":-0.0527219225110348,"split_worst":-0.05274746314378698,"raw_q01":-0.024506411492163316,"adjusted_q01":-0.024513240657520956,"largest_gap_difference":0.005129301099673578,"difference_date":"2022-09-26 04:00:00+00:00","recent":[1.0026117843710822,1,1,1,1],"worst_raw_date":"2024-08-05 04:00:00+00:00","worst_adjusted_date":"2024-08-05 04:00:00+00:00","raw_ret":0.1892502825568254}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip
QQQ 04UTC raw versus adjusted gap audit = 0.0035365845953388986
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:03
Direct bars retrieved2026-09-21; matched 2021-09-21 through2026-09-18 raw, split and all series. {"symbol":"QQQ","n":1254,"last_raw":721.45,"last_all":721.45,"last_factor":1,"raw_worst":-0.05357103064066859,"adjusted_worst":-0.05357022225224606,"split_worst":-0.05357103064066859,"raw_q01":-0.023510326289269638,"adjusted_q01":-0.02352005037913024,"largest_gap_difference":0.0035365845953388986,"difference_date":"2022-09-19 04:00:00+00:00","recent":[1,1,1,1,1],"worst_raw_date":"2024-08-05 04:00:00+00:00","worst_adjusted_date":"2024-08-05 04:00:00+00:00","raw_ret":0.2227966101694916}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip
EEM 04UTC raw versus adjusted gap audit = 0.01839892173305746
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:03
Direct bars retrieved2026-09-21; matched 2021-09-21 through2026-09-18 raw, split and all series. {"symbol":"EEM","n":1254,"last_raw":67.03,"last_all":67.03,"last_factor":1,"raw_worst":-0.057398373983739814,"adjusted_worst":-0.05737169009480214,"split_worst":-0.057398373983739814,"raw_q01":-0.028209217201981433,"adjusted_q01":-0.02820282384355924,"largest_gap_difference":0.01839892173305746,"difference_date":"2023-12-20 05:00:00+00:00","recent":[1,1,1,1,1],"worst_raw_date":"2026-03-03 05:00:00+00:00","worst_adjusted_date":"2026-03-03 05:00:00+00:00","raw_ret":0.25854299662035296}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip
ETH/USD 04UTC completed daily signal and planned allocation = -0.4103202632673566
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:03
Retrieved2026-09-21; direct provider daily bars; 252 equity/365 crypto close intervals, SMA200, arithmetic ATR20, P90 rolling60 gains ending in five-year window with preceding warmup. Planned size is not order. {"symbol":"ETH/USD","date":"2026-09-20 00:00:00+00:00","bars":1938,"close":2643.9205,"ret":-0.4103202632673566,"sma":2076.261635608327,"atr":98.36391593532497,"high20":2665.72,"p90":0.4222824630051262,"p90_n":1826,"above":true,"rank":7,"size":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
BTC/USD 04UTC completed daily signal and planned allocation = -0.29849667570825167
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:03
Retrieved2026-09-21; direct provider daily bars; 252 equity/365 crypto close intervals, SMA200, arithmetic ATR20, P90 rolling60 gains ending in five-year window with preceding warmup. Planned size is not order. {"symbol":"BTC/USD","date":"2026-09-20 00:00:00+00:00","bars":1938,"close":81164.345,"ret":-0.29849667570825167,"sma":70506.90950958944,"atr":2207.8615644035503,"high20":82233.502538071,"p90":0.36718658848933106,"p90_n":1826,"above":true,"rank":6,"size":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
TLT 04UTC completed daily signal and planned allocation = -0.05709643727515379
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:03
Retrieved2026-09-21; direct provider daily bars; 252 equity/365 crypto close intervals, SMA200, arithmetic ATR20, P90 rolling60 gains ending in five-year window with preceding warmup. Planned size is not order. {"symbol":"TLT","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1332,"close":81.25,"ret":-0.05709643727515379,"sma":84.36059999999999,"atr":0.6628700000000016,"high20":83.28,"p90":0.061531439329492135,"p90_n":1254,"above":false,"rank":null,"size":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
GLD 04UTC completed daily signal and planned allocation = 0.1905214114016085
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:03
Retrieved2026-09-21; direct provider daily bars; 252 equity/365 crypto close intervals, SMA200, arithmetic ATR20, P90 rolling60 gains ending in five-year window with preceding warmup. Planned size is not order. {"symbol":"GLD","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1332,"close":401.17,"ret":0.1905214114016085,"sma":416.22065,"atr":7.923445000000004,"high20":429.42,"p90":0.16786147299684145,"p90_n":1254,"above":false,"rank":null,"size":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
EEM 04UTC completed daily signal and planned allocation = 0.28311638591117916
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:03
Retrieved2026-09-21; direct provider daily bars; 252 equity/365 crypto close intervals, SMA200, arithmetic ATR20, P90 rolling60 gains ending in five-year window with preceding warmup. Planned size is not order. {"symbol":"EEM","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1332,"close":67.03,"ret":0.28311638591117916,"sma":62.091550000000005,"atr":0.9432499999999997,"high20":69.125,"p90":0.10720899217530387,"p90_n":1254,"above":true,"rank":1,"size":93.33}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
EFA 04UTC completed daily signal and planned allocation = 0.16737099644128106
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:03
Retrieved2026-09-21; direct provider daily bars; 252 equity/365 crypto close intervals, SMA200, arithmetic ATR20, P90 rolling60 gains ending in five-year window with preceding warmup. Planned size is not order. {"symbol":"EFA","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1332,"close":104.97,"ret":0.16737099644128106,"sma":101.03105,"atr":1.0289949999999997,"high20":108.83,"p90":0.09630887522284759,"p90_n":1254,"above":true,"rank":5,"size":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
IWM 04UTC completed daily signal and planned allocation = 0.20131929468476484
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:03
Retrieved2026-09-21; direct provider daily bars; 252 equity/365 crypto close intervals, SMA200, arithmetic ATR20, P90 rolling60 gains ending in five-year window with preceding warmup. Planned size is not order. {"symbol":"IWM","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1332,"close":284.1,"ret":0.20131929468476484,"sma":273.51065,"atr":3.2170000000000045,"high20":299.61,"p90":0.1282729793648821,"p90_n":1254,"above":true,"rank":3,"size":93.33}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QQQ 04UTC completed daily signal and planned allocation = 0.2286901578759135
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:03
Retrieved2026-09-21; direct provider daily bars; 252 equity/365 crypto close intervals, SMA200, arithmetic ATR20, P90 rolling60 gains ending in five-year window with preceding warmup. Planned size is not order. {"symbol":"QQQ","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1332,"close":721.45,"ret":0.2286901578759135,"sma":661.77265,"atr":8.27367999999999,"high20":724.125,"p90":0.16169596547248039,"p90_n":1254,"above":true,"rank":2,"size":93.33}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
SPY 04UTC completed daily signal and planned allocation = 0.17127216250711208
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 04:03
Retrieved2026-09-21; direct provider daily bars; 252 equity/365 crypto close intervals, SMA200, arithmetic ATR20, P90 rolling60 gains ending in five-year window with preceding warmup. Planned size is not order. {"symbol":"SPY","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1332,"close":761.69,"ret":0.17127216250711208,"sma":712.4730999999999,"atr":6.002450000000005,"high20":773.38,"p90":0.10841971102491436,"p90_n":1254,"above":true,"rank":4,"size":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
02UTC covariance, gap scenario and bootstrap = 77.94269465148402
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 02:03
{"equity":999.38,"risk_ceiling":29.981399999999997,"position_cap":249.845,"n":1254,"corr":{"QQQ":{"QQQ":1,"IWM":0.7781522394928979,"EEM":0.6923132118727976},"IWM":{"QQQ":0.7781522394928979,"IWM":1,"EEM":0.6498142626044213},"EEM":{"QQQ":0.6923132118727976,"IWM":0.6498142626044213,"EEM":1}},"corr60":{"QQQ":{"QQQ":1,"IWM":0.7113754784461003,"EEM":0.8333087107000541},"IWM":{"QQQ":0.7113754784461003,"IWM":1,"EEM":0.6335375417066647},"EEM":{"QQQ":0.8333087107000541,"IWM":0.6335375417066647,"EEM":1}},"risk":[{"symbol":"QQQ","size":93.33,"stop":704.90264,"target":838.105554290121,"p90_pct":16.169596547248037,"rr":7.049798535241943,"normal_loss":2.1406405278259037,"stress":23.108077650841185,"fall_to_sma_pct":8.271862221914205},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.33,"stop":277.666,"target":320.542353437563,"p90_pct":12.827297936488211,"rr":5.6640275781105,"normal_loss":2.1136403379091897,"stress":28.421384363225883,"fall_to_sma_pct":3.7273319253783965},{"symbol":"EEM","size":93.33,"stop":65.1435,"target":74.21621874551062,"p90_pct":10.720899217530388,"rr":3.809286374508678,"normal_loss":2.626690213337311,"stress":26.413232637416957,"fall_to_sma_pct":7.367522005072347}],"joint_stress":77.94269465148402,"bootstrap":{"paths":20000,"days":20,"gap_rows":1254,"q95_worst_daily_basket_gap_loss":10.02378490204687,"q99":14.828642951783685,"max":14.828642951783685},"method":"IID synchronized daily historical overnight gaps, 20 days/path, no stops or drift; descriptive conditional gap diagnostic not exit odds or strategy backtest"}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
ETH/USD 02UTC completed daily signal and proposed size = -0.4103202632673566
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 02:03
Retrieved2026-09-21; direct provider bars, SIP adjustment=all equities; crypto native. 252/365 close intervals, SMA200, arithmetic TR20; P90 rolling60 returns ending within last5years with prior warmup. {"symbol":"ETH/USD","date":"2026-09-20 00:00:00+00:00","bars":1938,"pages":1,"close":2643.9205,"return":-0.4103202632673566,"sma":2076.261635608327,"atr":98.36391593532497,"high20":2665.72,"p90":0.4222824630051262,"p90_n":1826,"source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars","above":true,"rank":7,"size":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
BTC/USD 02UTC completed daily signal and proposed size = -0.29849667570825167
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 02:03
Retrieved2026-09-21; direct provider bars, SIP adjustment=all equities; crypto native. 252/365 close intervals, SMA200, arithmetic TR20; P90 rolling60 returns ending within last5years with prior warmup. {"symbol":"BTC/USD","date":"2026-09-20 00:00:00+00:00","bars":1938,"pages":1,"close":81164.345,"return":-0.29849667570825167,"sma":70506.90950958944,"atr":2207.8615644035503,"high20":82233.502538071,"p90":0.36718658848933106,"p90_n":1826,"source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars","above":true,"rank":6,"size":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
TLT 02UTC completed daily signal and proposed size = -0.05709643727515379
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 02:03
Retrieved2026-09-21; direct provider bars, SIP adjustment=all equities; crypto native. 252/365 close intervals, SMA200, arithmetic TR20; P90 rolling60 returns ending within last5years with prior warmup. {"symbol":"TLT","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1332,"pages":1,"close":81.25,"return":-0.05709643727515379,"sma":84.36059999999999,"atr":0.6628700000000016,"high20":83.28,"p90":0.061531439329492135,"p90_n":1254,"source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars","above":false,"rank":null,"size":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
GLD 02UTC completed daily signal and proposed size = 0.1905214114016085
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 02:03
Retrieved2026-09-21; direct provider bars, SIP adjustment=all equities; crypto native. 252/365 close intervals, SMA200, arithmetic TR20; P90 rolling60 returns ending within last5years with prior warmup. {"symbol":"GLD","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1332,"pages":1,"close":401.17,"return":0.1905214114016085,"sma":416.22065,"atr":7.923445000000004,"high20":429.42,"p90":0.16786147299684145,"p90_n":1254,"source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars","above":false,"rank":null,"size":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EEM 02UTC completed daily signal and proposed size = 0.28311638591117916
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 02:03
Retrieved2026-09-21; direct provider bars, SIP adjustment=all equities; crypto native. 252/365 close intervals, SMA200, arithmetic TR20; P90 rolling60 returns ending within last5years with prior warmup. {"symbol":"EEM","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1332,"pages":1,"close":67.03,"return":0.28311638591117916,"sma":62.091550000000005,"atr":0.9432499999999997,"high20":69.125,"p90":0.10720899217530387,"p90_n":1254,"source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars","above":true,"rank":1,"size":93.33}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars