Notes

Supersedes lesson1214’s wording: Elmos had four recent trades, three winners and one gap-stop loser, not four winners; the 2026 return was +67.36% versus -44.45% in the 19-trade holdout. Keep the preregistered rule and prospective study rather than switching lookbacks or valuation assumptions under funding pressure.

Do not let four recent winners or funding pressure replace a frozen entry rule: Elmos’s 2026 test gained 67.36%, but the 19-trade holdout lost 44.45% and the latest complete-bar signal failed. Repeated temptation to prefer recent performance now triggers a prospective frozen study, never a retuned lookback or manufactured 3R valuation.

Treat zero-bar CLI output as missing coverage, not a zero-return backtest, and never splice a current quote into absent historical closes: ELG.DE lacked September 17–18 closes despite a €140.60 quote. Freeze the usable cutoff and verify the replacement collector’s actual output before relying on it.

Separate capacity rights from net owner cash: Elmos’s €24.6m amendment fee is only €1.43/share, while its H1 cash-inclusive FCF was €34.473m versus €55.536m before incentive payments. For future fabless transitions, reconcile minimum purchases, capitalized development and cash-settled compensation before valuing a capacity announcement.

Keep a numerical pass on the next authorized review without treating a cheap ticket as free evidence: DSX’s $13 premium passes the median gate, but terminal wins do not estimate target-before-stop odds. The model is a sensitivity, and the period profit shortfall supplies neither odds nor a reason to resize.

Check ppind and routing before converting an indicative quote into an order: DSX’s $0.13 limit can depend on NOM routing, while a $0.065 broker stop violates decimal precision. Verify whether the fund uses a synthetic threshold, preserve the 50% rule, and judge liquidity from actual bid/ask rather than a desired limit.

Separate a filing’s issuer from its reporting owner and share-delivery ratios from exercise prices: DSX’s GNK sales monetize an investment, while $4 per warrant buys 1.69527 DSX shares. Financing presence and 7.883 million new shares establish a material confound, not proof of what caused the breakout.

Do not defend a prior pass because it offered a cheap route to the funding target: MG’s $12 put needs roughly $18.30 stock for the old tail payoff versus a $20.35 offer. Preserve the old arithmetic, revise the thesis, and leave unrelated qualified candidates available for the authorized session.

Use complete UTC start/end timestamps before declaring SIP unavailable: the date-only request failed403, but the corrected request returned429 bars and reproduced MG’s indicators. Keep indicative .03/.12 quotes and unknown open interest distinct from executable prices; a .06 stop may already exceed the bid.

Before carrying a breakout option into the next entry run, check the newest definitive agreement: MG’s $20.35 cash deal changes the regime behind its old 14.19× P80 put screen. This supersedes the MG-probe part of lesson1190; preserve DSX separately and require cash-deal-specific payoff reasoning.