Notes

Final local START08:18:36.189597 END08:18:37.464612UTC,5panels,orders0. FTK/AVAV/TLX200; TXNM/KR403 explicitly gap. KR two alternative newsroompaths404; do notassumenonews. Nine30minruns scheduled withhard12:25UTCcutoff,timeout35s. SchedulingacceptanceisnotremoteEND; next12:30monitor281mustauditactualnotes. Old219receipt07:30verified,15/85retained. Hashchangedynamic/cosmetic,notsemanticnewsproof. research/collector.py ; issuer URLs in script

{"sample":{"daily_returns":1255,"overlapping5day_blocks":1251,"simulated_paths":10000,"PnL_1share_p5_median_p95":[-14.19582650368268,0.15414785536563613,19.385670270451158],"mean_PnL":0.4696621589496277,"loss_probability":0.4951,"stop_probability":0.2151,"target_probability":0.0316,"meanwin_pct":5.7113459410198715,"meanloss_pct":5.180391664298729,"win_loss":1.1024930760313503,"binary_half_Kelly_risk_proxy":0.0279134424634149,"cashconstrained_half_Kelly":0.29433061572816666,"loss_over_1ADR_probability":0.2187,"loss_over_3ADR_probability":0.0048,"p95_loss_account_pct":1.6681543265705447,"mean_exit_session":4.5471},"parameters":{"mark":147.065,"assumed_entry_fill":147.2855975,"cost":147.30032605975,"stop":138.5265125,"target":173.5628525,"risk":8.759085,"seed":9110800,"live_allocation":0,"limitations":"Unconditional overlapping historical five-day blocks, not conditional EAR edge, not 10000 independent events, not 15min venue execution; daily-close sample exits can overshoot. No news-date filter, +2R management or calibrated forecast. One-share stress diagnostic, not proposed order; full universe and tails omitted. Fixed windows before sampling; 2026 excluded."}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/risk_study.py

{"sample":{"daily_returns":1258,"overlapping5day_blocks":1254,"simulated_paths":10000,"PnL_1share_p5_median_p95":[-12.760873684905476,0.1270444763461569,16.151624233179263],"mean_PnL":0.43433099903177197,"loss_probability":0.4901,"stop_probability":0.1252,"target_probability":0.0209,"meanwin_pct":4.449327431290994,"meanloss_pct":4.027445834403602,"win_loss":1.104751650111234,"binary_half_Kelly_risk_proxy":0.033135441066934224,"cashconstrained_half_Kelly":0.4277406279728223,"loss_over_1ADR_probability":0.1265,"loss_over_3ADR_probability":0,"p95_loss_account_pct":1.4995327424418003,"mean_exit_session":4.733},"parameters":{"mark":147.065,"assumed_entry_fill":147.2855975,"cost":147.30032605975,"stop":138.5265125,"target":173.5628525,"risk":8.759085,"seed":9110800,"live_allocation":0,"limitations":"Unconditional overlapping historical five-day blocks, not conditional EAR edge, not 10000 independent events, not 15min venue execution; daily-close sample exits can overshoot. No news-date filter, +2R management or calibrated forecast. One-share stress diagnostic, not proposed order; full universe and tails omitted. Fixed windows before sampling; 2026 excluded."}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/risk_study.py

{"N":3,"win_rate_pct":33.33333333333333,"mean_return_pct":-0.8609740733728407,"mean_win_pct":7.939941307427634,"mean_loss_pct":5.261431763773078,"realized_PnL_USD":-1.0460528968119984,"raw_half_Kelly_risk_proxy":-0.0542179116971192,"clipped_half_Kelly":0}; All3forcedoperatorliquidationsSep4, notnatural4–6weekexits. Cannotestimateactualslippagewithoutdecisionquotes orstop/targethitrate. Noopen/pending percontext. query_trades(fund=quant)

{"SPY":{"SPY":1,"EFA":0.7591198368856802,"EEM":0.6704914576653278,"TLT":0.119936053322961,"GLD":0.15267835728211407},"EFA":{"SPY":0.7591198368856802,"EFA":1,"EEM":0.7863240446416644,"TLT":0.22112137108943597,"GLD":0.3508641532226154},"EEM":{"SPY":0.6704914576653278,"EFA":0.7863240446416644,"EEM":1,"TLT":0.1554362466102038,"GLD":0.38281142715701333},"TLT":{"SPY":0.119936053322961,"EFA":0.22112137108943597,"EEM":0.1554362466102038,"TLT":1,"GLD":0.17874017634543926},"GLD":{"SPY":0.15267835728211407,"EFA":0.3508641532226154,"EEM":0.38281142715701333,"TLT":0.17874017634543926,"GLD":1}};925common dailyreturns Jan2023–Sep10 2026. CurrentETFproxies,noindependentcausalproof; EFA/EEM equityexposurecorrelated,notfiveindependentbets. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"bars":2687,"close":396.36,"252session_return_pct":18.649344429144477,"RV20_pct":28.263810605186755,"daily_range_over_20pct_count":0,"whole_shares_for187_22":0}; RetrievedSep11, dates2016–Sep10 2026, nohistorybefore2016returned despite2010request. Close-derivedmetrics unaffected mechanically by SPYdaily-low anomaly; not proof ofdataeligibilityorstrategyedge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"bars":2687,"close":80.78,"252session_return_pct":-5.321143928738858,"RV20_pct":10.903027184382665,"daily_range_over_20pct_count":0,"whole_shares_for187_22":2}; RetrievedSep11, dates2016–Sep10 2026, nohistorybefore2016returned despite2010request. Close-derivedmetrics unaffected mechanically by SPYdaily-low anomaly; not proof ofdataeligibilityorstrategyedge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"bars":2687,"close":67,"252session_return_pct":33.43955387373032,"RV20_pct":19.12744178908615,"daily_range_over_20pct_count":0,"whole_shares_for187_22":2}; RetrievedSep11, dates2016–Sep10 2026, nohistorybefore2016returned despite2010request. Close-derivedmetrics unaffected mechanically by SPYdaily-low anomaly; not proof ofdataeligibilityorstrategyedge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"bars":2687,"close":105.66,"252session_return_pct":18.267293485560778,"RV20_pct":9.84770115845476,"daily_range_over_20pct_count":0,"whole_shares_for187_22":1}; RetrievedSep11, dates2016–Sep10 2026, nohistorybefore2016returned despite2010request. Close-derivedmetrics unaffected mechanically by SPYdaily-low anomaly; not proof ofdataeligibilityorstrategyedge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"bars":2687,"close":757.83,"252session_return_pct":17.827324035636003,"RV20_pct":8.536479436350973,"daily_range_over_20pct_count":1,"whole_shares_for187_22":0}; RetrievedSep11, dates2016–Sep10 2026, nohistorybefore2016returned despite2010request. Close-derivedmetrics unaffected mechanically by SPYdaily-low anomaly; not proof ofdataeligibilityorstrategyedge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"N":50,"date":"2026-09-10","close":248.83,"prior_close":254.86,"day_pct":-2.3660048654163046,"20session_pct":-3.833816425120773,"RV20_pct":48.85017922551697,"prior20ADR":9.169129999999992,"ADV20_USD":1268578302.5955002,"whole_shares_affordable":0}; ComputedSep11 on50SIP/all dailybars Jul1–Sep10. Descriptive historicalprices, not executablequotes. prior20ADR excludesSep10 unless field explicitly forSep11. AVAV correctfrozenEAR usesSep4->10; no liveposition. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"N":50,"date":"2026-09-10","close":57.86,"prior_close":57.9,"day_pct":-0.0690846286701241,"20session_pct":0.9244723530437815,"RV20_pct":4.1961001654799315,"prior20ADR":0.2699999999999996,"ADV20_USD":68686750.926,"whole_shares_affordable":3}; ComputedSep11 on50SIP/all dailybars Jul1–Sep10. Descriptive historicalprices, not executablequotes. prior20ADR excludesSep10 unless field explicitly forSep11. AVAV correctfrozenEAR usesSep4->10; no liveposition. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"N":50,"date":"2026-09-10","close":757.83,"prior_close":762.4,"day_pct":-0.5994228751311614,"20session_pct":-1.8977591942937688,"RV20_pct":8.536479436350973,"prior20ADR":4.372059999999993,"ADV20_USD":28341302182.2235,"whole_shares_affordable":0}; ComputedSep11 on50SIP/all dailybars Jul1–Sep10. Descriptive historicalprices, not executablequotes. prior20ADR excludesSep10 unless field explicitly forSep11. AVAV correctfrozenEAR usesSep4->10; no liveposition. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"N":50,"date":"2026-09-10","close":152.94,"prior_close":161.63,"day_pct":-5.3764771391449635,"20session_pct":-0.2218162839248472,"RV20_pct":48.87975391754114,"prior20ADR":5.868495,"ADV20_USD":3621428842.8145,"whole_shares_affordable":1}; ComputedSep11 on50SIP/all dailybars Jul1–Sep10. Descriptive historicalprices, not executablequotes. prior20ADR excludesSep10 unless field explicitly forSep11. AVAV correctfrozenEAR usesSep4->10; no liveposition. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"N":50,"date":"2026-09-10","close":27.42,"prior_close":27.88,"day_pct":-1.6499282639885093,"20session_pct":-26.230831315577074,"RV20_pct":102.7444578299926,"prior20ADR":2.1877250000000013,"ADV20_USD":19000953.600499995,"whole_shares_affordable":6}; ComputedSep11 on50SIP/all dailybars Jul1–Sep10. Descriptive historicalprices, not executablequotes. prior20ADR excludesSep10 unless field explicitly forSep11. AVAV correctfrozenEAR usesSep4->10; no liveposition. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"N":50,"date":"2026-09-10","close":147.065,"prior_close":140.8,"day_pct":4.449573863636358,"20session_pct":-24.118982508642482,"RV20_pct":55.32377210836666,"prior20ADR":8.204085000000001,"ADV20_USD":283592247.92574996,"whole_shares_affordable":1,"illustrative_1share_1ADR_loss_USD":8.759085,"illustrative_1share_3ADR_gap_equity_pct":3.087845333082645,"correct_frozen_EAR_pp":3.274345998731776,"prior20ADR_for_Sep11":8.759085000000002}; ComputedSep11 on50SIP/all dailybars Jul1–Sep10. Descriptive historicalprices, not executablequotes. prior20ADR excludesSep10 unless field explicitly forSep11. AVAV correctfrozenEAR usesSep4->10; no liveposition. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Sep11~08:14UTC mainpage explicitly gives nextreleaseSep11 10amET=14UTC, fills hourgap25147. Augustfinalsentiment51.7,currentconditions51.9,expectations51.5; yearaheadinflation4.0%,longrun3.3%. InterviewperiodJul28–Aug24, nottoday. CompareactualSeptdataandmethodology, noinventedconsensus orautomaticmacroentry. https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

RetrievedSep11~08:11UTC. Current2026UMichdatesPDFconfirmsSep11preliminary,Sep25final; thisPDFdoesnotgivehour. BoardcalendarSep11Z.1 at12ET=16UTC; H.8/H.15at16:15ET=20:15UTC; commercialpaper13ET=17UTC. Sep14H.10/H.15at16:15ET=20:15UTC andcommercialpaper13ET. NoSep11/14Boardspeechlisted; notexhaustive regionalFedcalendar. FOMC15–16outside nexttwosessions. EarlysearchUMichdoc75443hadwrong-yeartext; authoritativecurrentlink79628supersedes. https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=79628 ; https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm

{"return":-2.1578886345422488,"trade_return_pct":-2.1578886345422488,"drawdown":3.1046257099508368,"win rate":0,"sample":1,"checks_before_exit":195,"bars":1178,"entry":686.92885,"risk":12.599000000000013,"target":724.72585,"original_stop":674.32985,"reason":"sampled_stop","ledger":[{"at":"2026-02-02 09:30:00-05:00","qty":14.556092818040764,"price":685.9,"fill":686.92885,"why":"entry"},{"at":"2026-02-05 10:15:00-05:00","qty":-14.556092818040764,"price":673.25,"fill":672.240125,"why":"sampled_stop"}],"vectorbt_max_error":0}; One inspected February2026 trade, not new holdout; fee1bp/slip15bp each side. Adjusted baropens proxy sampling, not quotes; originaldailyretained. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/execution_audit.py

{"return":-2.1578886345422488,"trade_return_pct":-2.1578886345422488,"drawdown":3.0151498423680034,"win rate":0,"sample":1,"checks_before_exit":81,"bars":494,"entry":686.92885,"risk":12.599000000000013,"target":724.72585,"original_stop":674.32985,"reason":"sampled_stop","ledger":[{"at":"2026-02-02 09:30:00-05:00","qty":14.556092818040764,"price":685.9,"fill":686.92885,"why":"entry"},{"at":"2026-02-05 10:15:00-05:00","qty":-14.556092818040764,"price":673.25,"fill":672.240125,"why":"sampled_stop"}],"vectorbt_max_error":0}; One inspected February2026 trade, not new holdout; fee1bp/slip15bp each side. Adjusted baropens proxy sampling, not quotes; originaldailyretained. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/execution_audit.py

{"symbol":"SPY","model":"adapter","sample":"test","slippage_bp":15,"c_multiplier":1,"return":-2.000956137018328,"drawdown":2.000956137018328,"CAGR_pct":-23.515425016349432,"Sharpe0":-3.641861872001305,"ann_vol_pct":7.287205862954066,"N_sessions":19,"N_months":1,"win_rate_pct":0,"trades":1,"positive_months_pct":0,"mean_trade_pct":-2.000956137018328,"avgwin_pct":null,"avgloss_pct":2.000956137018328,"mean_exposure":0,"vectorbt_max_error":0,"orders":2,"start":"2026-02-02","end":"2026-02-27","trade":{"symbol":"SPY","entrydate":"2026-02-02","entry":686.92885,"risk":12.599000000000013,"stop":674.32985,"target":724.72585,"partiallevel":712.12685,"partial":false,"cost":10000,"receipts":9799.904386298167,"weight":1,"exit":"2026-02-02","reason":"stop","ret":-0.020009561370183282,"hold":1}}; One inspected February2026 trade, not new holdout; fee1bp/slip15bp each side. Adjusted baropens proxy sampling, not quotes; originaldailyretained. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/execution_audit.py

Sep10presentation: FYrevenue360–370m,adjEBITDA50–54m guidesraisedSep9. InternationalchemistryH2expected>40m versusH1actual12.6m implies>217.46%half-on-halfgrowth, notcollectedcash. Q2revenue99.4m/GP23.8m. CurrentIRhomepageSep11latestnewsSep9guide; noadditionalpaidreceiptidentified. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm

Sep9issuer16:10EDT Q1endedAug1: revenue480.490m,OCF13.496m,propertyequipment44.033m givesFCFproxy-30.537m; capitalizedsoftware5.417m addsuse,expandedproxy-35.954m. AdjustedEBITDA53.389mvs56.556m; fundedbacklog~1.5bn. BacklogdoesnotprovepaidcashorpositivePEADexpectancy. Directfetch200/299723bytes/hash87a4f3355ebdf8d9; dynamicheaderdateignoredin favoractualrelease. https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391

Sep10issuerQ3endedAug28: revenue6.760bn,OCF2.523bn,capex.085bn,computedFCF2.438bn/36.0651%margin; SBCcashflowaddback.539bn, illustrativeFCFlessSBC1.899bn. GAAPnetincome1.827bnvs1.772bn +3.1038%; EPS4.62vs4.18 +10.5263%, dilutedshares395mvs424m -6.8396%. FullFYnonGAAPguide24.45–24.50; Sep10prereleaseclose248.83/midguide=10.1667x, notfreshpostnewsprice. Q4guide6.80–6.85bn revenue,6.30–6.35adjustedEPS. DirectguessednewsURLredirectedtohomepage; officialIRPDFisvalidsource. https://www.adobe.com/cc-shared/assets/investor-relations/pdfs/01906202/au56y4ter.pdf

Issuer Sep10 16:10ET release, Q1endedAug31: revenue19.345bn, OCF23.103bn,capex28.499bn,FCF-5.396bn; customerprepaymentswithsignificantfinancing11.363bn=49.1841%OCF. OCF minus only those prepayments11.740bn; illustrative FCF minus same-16.759bn, notGAAP orforecast. ATMnet19.909bn. PriorSep10close152.94 /FY27guided8.10nonGAAPEPS=18.8815x; staleprereleaseprice notcurrentvaluationtarget. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oracle-announces-q1-results-driven-by-triple-digit-growth-in-cloud-infrastructure-revenues-302875728.html