Notes

3xoptionexit vsfullpremiumloss,2USDroundtripcost,100fund: prices.10/.12/.13/.15 => breakevenprob40/38.8889/38.4615/37.7778%; probabilityrequiredforonewholecontractathalfKelly54.4/56/56.9231/58.9333%. Hypothetical thresholds not estimatedodds. Correspondinghurdles6.7524/7.3955/7.7170/8.3601%,P80multiples4.3633/3.6361/3.3564/2.9089. Exactmodelbaseline-7.09092,bootstrapmean95CI[-12.27064,1.48562],50000samplesof9,seed92104; no actualoptionhistory. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

[{"mult": 1.25, "period": "train", "return": -42.50127355679397, "drawdown": -44.05348158976054, "win_rate": 40.0, "sample": 5}, {"mult": 1.25, "period": "known_holdout", "return": -13.220697805247836, "drawdown": -25.071729806239752, "win_rate": 33.33333333333333, "sample": 3}, {"mult": 1.5, "period": "train", "return": -42.50127355679397, "drawdown": -44.05348158976054, "win_rate": 40.0, "sample": 5}, {"mult": 1.5, "period": "known_holdout", "return": -13.220697805247836, "drawdown": -25.071729806239752, "win_rate": 33.33333333333333, "sample": 3}, {"mult": 2.0, "period": "train", "return": -47.559300300691746, "drawdown": -48.97496427036341, "win_rate": 40.0, "sample": 5}, {"mult": 2.0, "period": "known_holdout", "return": -14.119501487007188, "drawdown": -19.22106660583941, "win_rate": 0.0, "sample": 1}]; vectorbt drawdown signednegative here; publicanalysis reports magnitude. CLI1537bars,N18return-11.48034711/DD24.478377/win22.22222/buyhold124.817518. Known2026holdoutnotnewOOS; stockproxy notoptionPnL. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js

[{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.06,"mean":5.366862410864126,"wins":4,"stops":5,"targets":3},{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.07,"mean":4.29475484695801,"wins":3,"stops":6,"targets":3},{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.06,"mean":3.2947548469580092,"wins":3,"stops":6,"targets":3},{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.07,"mean":4.050402734549182,"wins":3,"stops":6,"targets":3},{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.06,"mean":2.637879533319437,"wins":3,"stops":6,"targets":3},{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.07,"mean":-6.386378206955025,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1}]; N9 daily-model sensitivity only, no broker order. Stop .06/.07 tests are not instruction to relax mandated50% threshold. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

[{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.06,"mean":-0.3000661317640445,"wins":2,"stops":7,"targets":2},{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.07,"mean":-5.944852698563367,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.06,"mean":-6.916533528864186,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.07,"mean":-6.596590613642383,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.06,"mean":-7.690101669156132,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.07,"mean":-7.053614896717729,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1}]; N9 daily-model sensitivity only, no broker order. Stop .06/.07 tests are not instruction to relax mandated50% threshold. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

[{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.06,"mean":-7.240703587829951,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.07,"mean":-6.714327559414181,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.06,"mean":-7.625410672955665,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.07,"mean":-6.808829987610821,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.06,"mean":-7.984566526749824,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1},{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.07,"mean":-7.984566526749824,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1}]; N9 daily-model sensitivity only, no broker order. Stop .06/.07 tests are not instruction to relax mandated50% threshold. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

Sep21 calculation: rawclose3.11,prior252high3.10,volume2994701/2.184476088x,adjustedATR20simple.104765,RSI14Wilder74.30063174,SMA50=2.54998,SMA200=2.33733. AllpostDec14 2023windows maximum12of30VWAP>=current3.0969threshold,windowendingMay24 2024; currentlast30count1,redemption3.5393count0. Fixedcurrentthresholdproxy, not authoritativehistoricalterms orissuerdecision. Medianbootstrap95CI8.1586259–18.7291766%,P80CI13.6748542–34.1968912%,50000resamplesseed92104,N9. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

RetrievedSep21: Sep18 19:59:58.976328497Z putbid.08size64/ask.13size15,spread38.4615%; impliedVol.5517 atretrieval, not stableovernighttrade. Putdailytradebarclose.10/volume35,latestTrade.12 vsminuteBar.10 differentderivedvalues; these are not fills. Call.18/.28,size7/102,spread35.7143%,IV.3977. OIput247/call408asSep17. Premia13/28;puthurdle7.71704%vsmedian13.78313%,P803.35638x. Equity999.26 currentpremiumcap49.963. Refreshactualquote beforeanyorder. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative; option_contracts

{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.065,"mean":-1.040434661188546,"wins":2,"stops":7,"targets":2,"pnl":[42.16686461739789,-15,-11.143579321246417,-8.99985516092377,-10.030820454805761,25.650051780082862,-10.37473564570089,-9.556899841870898,-12.074937923629932]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.065,"mean":3.9475412649250217,"wins":3,"stops":6,"targets":3,"pnl":[43.6668646173979,-14.287291188932308,-9.643579321246419,25.60497258964808,-8.530820454805763,27.150051780082865,-8.874735645700891,-8.982653068488343,-10.574937923629932]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.065,"mean":4.29475484695801,"wins":3,"stops":6,"targets":3,"pnl":[44.6668646173979,-13.287291188932308,-8.643579321246417,26.60497258964808,-9.400476922472276,28.150051780082865,-10.956117994273527,-8.906692013952298,-9.574937923629932]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.065,"mean":-7.0909198439987335,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1,"pnl":[-8.617140301790078,-15,-10.095866520555326,-9.392648626188144,-12.490893465239202,25.22408817929034,-10.849991989385206,-8.538676149479492,-14.057149722641489]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.065,"mean":-6.596590613642383,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1,"pnl":[-9.198107794304043,-15,-8.595866520555326,-10.051049126564402,-10.990893465239203,26.72408817929034,-9.349991989385208,-10.350345083382116,-12.55714972264149]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.065,"mean":-0.3000661317640445,"wins":2,"stops":7,"targets":2,"pnl":[44.377533901652235,-14.25487252729264,-10.475352757551546,-9.0510491265644,-9.990893465239202,27.72408817929034,-10.12255458414758,-9.350345083382114,-11.557149722641489]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.065,"mean":-7.984566526749824,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1,"pnl":[-11.400765650281127,-15,-10.390031722318733,-12.094185592969671,-14.669018450720634,25.01282011864137,-13.268123641552316,-11.024004960071316,-9.027788841475989]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.065,"mean":-6.808829987610821,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1,"pnl":[-9.900765650281127,-15,-8.890031722318735,-10.594185592969673,-13.169018450720635,26.51282011864137,-11.768123641552318,-9.524004960071318,-8.946159989224954]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.065,"mean":-6.714327559414181,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1,"pnl":[-8.900765650281127,-14.800251978126648,-9.959368936848666,-9.594185592969671,-12.169018450720635,27.51282011864137,-10.768123641552316,-8.524004960071316,-13.226048942798611]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

Issuer Sep16:17,000/day less4.75% vs12,500less5%; expectedstartSep20 2026,minimumSep1 2027,maxNov15 2027;5.81mexpectedgrossminimum revenue;36vessels. Calculatednewnet16192.5/old11875/difference4317.5 perday;365day illustration1.5758875m beforeoffhire/costs,notactualcontractreceipts oradditional annualprofit. At assumed342gross-revenue days5.81m/17000, incrementalnet~1.4755m but duration not measuredfromactualstart. One operating contract does not isolate stockcause. https://www.dianashippinginc.com/diana-shipping-inc-announces-time-charter-contract-for-m-v-astarte-with-aquavita-2/?catslug=press-releases

Sep21 rawlast30 completed bars throughSep18: 1 VWAP>=3.0969,0>=3.5393,max3.12169. Latestclose3.11,volume2994701; Sep9close2.92->Sep18+6.50685%. Sep17confirmed207621newshares=6.93295% ofFridayvolume, a size comparison NOT proofthese shares traded. Aggregateconfirmed7882957newshares=6.33608% ofJul29base124413717;4cash/warrant contractual18.599888m. No automatic20of30trigger established; full historicalfirsttrigger scan needed before assertingnevertriggered. Periodasstated, not currentissuerdetermination. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://www.dianashippinginc.com/warrant-information/

{"signal":"2026-05-05","entry":"2026-05-06","exit":"2026-06-03","entry_price":2.698,"return_pct":-13.602668643439586,"volume_ratio":3.416374426698746,"put_intrinsic":0.3130429948109712,"raw_return_pct":-13.602941176470596}; Sep21 calculation. Close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5x prior20,21-session separation; nextopen to20thsessionclose. Adjusted signal; raw return sensitivity shown. Mapped intrinsic not option PnL. Historical financing labels incomplete. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DSX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"signal":"2026-02-20","entry":"2026-02-23","exit":"2026-03-20","entry_price":2.549,"return_pct":-10.121616320125536,"volume_ratio":1.7070635995893573,"put_intrinsic":0.20478226755590434,"raw_return_pct":-10.465116279069765}; Sep21 calculation. Close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5x prior20,21-session separation; nextopen to20thsessionclose. Adjusted signal; raw return sensitivity shown. Mapped intrinsic not option PnL. Historical financing labels incomplete. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DSX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"signal":"2026-01-15","entry":"2026-01-16","exit":"2026-02-13","entry_price":2.075,"return_pct":13.78313253012049,"volume_ratio":1.7675096070979175,"put_intrinsic":0,"raw_return_pct":13.809523809523805}; Sep21 calculation. Close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5x prior20,21-session separation; nextopen to20thsessionclose. Adjusted signal; raw return sensitivity shown. Mapped intrinsic not option PnL. Historical financing labels incomplete. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DSX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"signal":"2025-12-03","entry":"2025-12-04","exit":"2026-01-02","entry_price":1.995,"return_pct":-16.79197994987469,"volume_ratio":4.527200147542758,"put_intrinsic":0.41223057644110295,"raw_return_pct":-17.24137931034482}; Sep21 calculation. Close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5x prior20,21-session separation; nextopen to20thsessionclose. Adjusted signal; raw return sensitivity shown. Mapped intrinsic not option PnL. Historical financing labels incomplete. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DSX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"signal":"2022-05-23","entry":"2022-05-24","exit":"2022-06-22","entry_price":4.202,"return_pct":-18.729176582579722,"volume_ratio":1.7583087873788608,"put_intrinsic":0.47247739171822944,"raw_return_pct":-21.83333333333333}; Sep21 calculation. Close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5x prior20,21-session separation; nextopen to20thsessionclose. Adjusted signal; raw return sensitivity shown. Mapped intrinsic not option PnL. Historical financing labels incomplete. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DSX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"signal":"2021-09-13","entry":"2021-09-14","exit":"2021-10-11","entry_price":3.959,"return_pct":-8.158625915635264,"volume_ratio":2.135112933072566,"put_intrinsic":0.14373326597625669,"raw_return_pct":-8.166666666666666}; Sep21 calculation. Close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5x prior20,21-session separation; nextopen to20thsessionclose. Adjusted signal; raw return sensitivity shown. Mapped intrinsic not option PnL. Historical financing labels incomplete. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DSX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"signal":"2021-05-03","entry":"2021-05-04","exit":"2021-06-01","entry_price":2.699,"return_pct":15.376065209336787,"volume_ratio":3.3229106579105716,"put_intrinsic":0,"raw_return_pct":15.403422982885084}; Sep21 calculation. Close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5x prior20,21-session separation; nextopen to20thsessionclose. Adjusted signal; raw return sensitivity shown. Mapped intrinsic not option PnL. Historical financing labels incomplete. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DSX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all