Notes

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 818,"avg_loss_pct":3.6696344482255188,"mean_pct":-0.19074779923307306,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":16,"target":9,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.533333333333333},{"lookback":20,"SMA":100,"N":26,"return_pct":-4.775381907199439,"drawdown_pct":17.20629634750851,"win_rate_pct":46.15384615384615,"avg_win_pct":4.265230738687028,"avg_loss_pct":3.8167040804798886,"mean_pct":-0.08658031778746578,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":13,"target":8,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.5},{"lookback":40,"SMA":20,"N":22,"return_pct":-3.7650455558232987,"drawdown_pct":17.841777573760954,"win_rate_pct":45.45454545454545,"avg_win_pct":4.462553822290478,"avg_loss_pct":3.839931235368774,"mean_pct":-0.06607439097820467,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":11,"target":7,"time":2,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":3.227272727272727},{"lookback":40,"SMA":50,"N":22,"return_pct":-3.7650455558232987,"drawdown_pct":17.841777573760954,"win_rate_pct":45.45454545454545,"avg_win_pct":4.462553822290478,"avg_loss_pct":3.839931235368774,"mean_pct":-0.06607439097820467,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":11,"target":7,"time":2,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":3.227272727272727},{"lookback":40,"SMA":100,"N":22,"return_pct":-3.7650455558232987,"drawdown_pct":17.841777573760954,"win_rate_pct":45.45454545454545,"avg_win_pct":4.462553822290478,"avg_loss_pct":3.839931235368774,"mean_pct":-0.06607439097820467,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":11,"target":7,"time":2,"gap_stop":1,"g https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. [{"lookback":10,"SMA":20,"N":42,"return_pct":-16.320997587550423,"drawdown_pct":26.239002652549637,"win_rate_pct":42.857142857142854,"avg_win_pct":4.087572499323489,"avg_loss_pct":3.652373466994703,"mean_pct":-0.33525376714404953,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":23,"target":14,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.357142857142857},{"lookback":10,"SMA":50,"N":39,"return_pct":-19.500651292781757,"drawdown_pct":27.07507504234481,"win_rate_pct":41.02564102564102,"avg_win_pct":4.123148104648024,"avg_loss_pct":3.658265970844127,"mean_pct":-0.4658909655140136,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":22,"target":12,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.2564102564102564},{"lookback":10,"SMA":100,"N":34,"return_pct":-18.641428418156448,"drawdown_pct":26.02406719285736,"win_rate_pct":41.17647058823529,"avg_win_pct":4.126332913960001,"avg_loss_pct":3.7598990274430957,"mean_pct":-0.5126270515712325,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":19,"target":10,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.235294117647059},{"lookback":20,"SMA":20,"N":30,"return_pct":-8.286043328630566,"drawdown_pct":17.767605770615248,"win_rate_pct":43.333333333333336,"avg_win_pct":4.358565510987818,"avg_loss_pct":3.6696344482255188,"mean_pct":-0.19074779923307306,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":16,"target":9,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.533333333333333},{"lookback":20,"SMA":50,"N":30,"return_pct":-8.286043328630566,"drawdown_pct":17.767605770615248,"win_rate_pct":43.333333333333336,"avg_win_pct":4.358565510987 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 48042378226,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-07-14","entry_i":1219,"entry_raw":121.09,"stop":117.6255,"target":126.28675000000001,"adr":3.464500000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-07-15","exit_raw":117.6255,"return":-0.03152075152467482,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-07-21","entry_i":1224,"entry_raw":123.55,"stop":120.024,"target":128.839,"adr":3.525999999999999,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-07-23","exit_raw":128.839,"return":0.03968484095361613,"why":"gap_target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2026-08-24","entry_i":1248,"entry_raw":129.99,"stop":125.781755,"target":136.3023675,"adr":4.208245,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-08-25","exit_raw":125.781755,"return":-0.03527213560081466,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-09-02","entry_i":1255,"entry_raw":133.57,"stop":128.870825,"target":140.6187625,"adr":4.699175000000001,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-09-02","exit_raw":140.6187625,"return":0.04961846417214155,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-09-03","entry_i":1256,"entry_raw":138.6,"stop":133.546325,"target":146.1805125,"adr":5.053675000000002,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-09-04","exit_raw":133.546325,"return":-0.03934858381605544,"why":"stop","sessions":2}]}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. ":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-02-20","entry_i":1121,"entry_raw":98.49,"stop":95.5025,"target":102.97125,"adr":2.9874999999999994,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-02-20","exit_raw":95.5025,"return":-0.03323767123161181,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-06","entry_i":1131,"entry_raw":110.97,"stop":107.1255,"target":116.73675,"adr":3.8445,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-03-06","exit_raw":116.73675,"return":0.048815575859809446,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-09","entry_i":1132,"entry_raw":115.63,"stop":111.559,"target":121.73649999999999,"adr":4.071,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-03-09","exit_raw":111.559,"return":-0.03809716829160126,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-13","entry_i":1136,"entry_raw":130.89,"stop":125.37499999999999,"target":139.1625,"adr":5.515000000000001,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-03-13","exit_raw":125.37499999999999,"return":-0.04500390763247186,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-31","entry_i":1148,"entry_raw":134.66,"stop":127.89399999999999,"target":144.809,"adr":6.766000000000003,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2026-03-31","exit_raw":127.89399999999999,"return":-0.05309005753545848,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-05-13","entry_i":1178,"entry_raw":128.06,"stop":123.19200000000001,"target":135.362,"adr":4.867999999999998,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-05-14","exit_raw":123.13,"return":-0.04137776480353428,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-07-09","entry_i":1216,"entry_raw":116.62,"stop":112.9345,"target":122.14825,"adr":3.6855,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-07-10","exit_raw":112.9345,"return":-0.034503 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. .8829999999999991,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-09-25","exit_raw":87.997,"return":-0.023882904706161057,"why":"stop","sessions":1}]},"holdout":{"N":17,"return_pct":-22.339990124300392,"drawdown_pct":26.970356892638915,"win_rate_pct":29.411764705882355,"avg_win_pct":4.118319471517569,"avg_loss_pct":3.714468441061886,"mean_pct":-1.4107072903032225,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":74.63331587218438,"reasons":{"stop":11,"target":4,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":1.9411764705882353,"ledger":[{"entry":"2026-01-09","entry_i":1093,"entry_raw":80.82,"stop":78.9185,"target":83.67224999999999,"adr":1.9015000000000015,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-01-13","exit_raw":83.67224999999999,"return":0.03219016748720449,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2026-01-15","entry_i":1097,"entry_raw":84.24,"stop":82.16749999999999,"target":87.34875,"adr":2.0725000000000007,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-01-15","exit_raw":82.16749999999999,"return":-0.02752413553142985,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-01-21","entry_i":1100,"entry_raw":88.64,"stop":86.352,"target":92.072,"adr":2.288000000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-01-28","exit_raw":92.072,"return":0.03560692510310681,"why":"target","sessions":6},{"entry":"2026-01-30","entry_i":1107,"entry_raw":92.01,"stop":89.2305,"target":96.17925000000001,"adr":2.7795,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-02-02","exit_raw":89.2305,"return":-0.03311368797640157,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-02-11","entry_i":1115,"entry_raw":95.5,"stop":92.564,"target":99.904,"adr":2.936,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-02-12","exit_raw":92.564,"return":-0.03364686855958998,"why https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 99999996,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2025-01-21","exit_raw":91.91,"return":-0.02329265494575805,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2025-05-06","entry_i":922,"entry_raw":78.63,"stop":76.1065,"target":82.41524999999999,"adr":2.5234999999999976,"regime":"low","market":"down","exit":"2025-05-13","exit_raw":82.41524999999999,"return":0.04500031395660753,"why":"gap_target","sessions":6},{"entry":"2025-05-14","entry_i":928,"entry_raw":85.18,"stop":82.88400000000001,"target":88.624,"adr":2.295999999999997,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-05-14","exit_raw":82.88400000000001,"return":-0.02986944654467294,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2025-05-22","entry_i":934,"entry_raw":86.75,"stop":84.3055,"target":90.41675,"adr":2.444499999999999,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-02","exit_raw":90.41675,"return":0.039145892232796964,"why":"target","sessions":7},{"entry":"2025-06-03","entry_i":941,"entry_raw":90.22,"stop":87.81099999999999,"target":93.8335,"adr":2.409,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-13","exit_raw":93.8335,"return":0.03693661337454457,"why":"target","sessions":9},{"entry":"2025-06-16","entry_i":950,"entry_raw":98.37,"stop":96.2445,"target":101.55825,"adr":2.1254999999999997,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-16","exit_raw":101.55825,"return":0.02931820402068608,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2025-06-17","entry_i":951,"entry_raw":99.35,"stop":97.1185,"target":102.69725,"adr":2.2314999999999996,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-18","exit_raw":97.1185,"return":-0.025389219688740416,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2025-09-25","entry_i":1020,"entry_raw":89.88,"stop":87.997,"target":92.7045,"adr":1 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. -09-30","entry_i":773,"entry_raw":81.98,"stop":80.387,"target":84.3695,"adr":1.593,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-10-02","exit_raw":84.3695,"return":0.02606453671973963,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2024-10-07","entry_i":778,"entry_raw":86.54,"stop":84.95200000000001,"target":88.92200000000001,"adr":1.5880000000000003,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-10-07","exit_raw":84.95200000000001,"return":-0.021290434036521866,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024-11-21","entry_i":811,"entry_raw":86.51,"stop":84.462,"target":89.58200000000001,"adr":2.047999999999999,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-11-25","exit_raw":84.462,"return":-0.02659815470987026,"why":"stop","sessions":3},{"entry":"2024-12-04","entry_i":819,"entry_raw":90.74,"stop":88.675,"target":93.83749999999999,"adr":2.0649999999999986,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-12-04","exit_raw":88.675,"return":-0.025684664178371786,"why":"stop","sessions":1}]},"validation":{"N":9,"return_pct":7.24610794711984,"drawdown_pct":5.162932595301262,"win_rate_pct":55.55555555555556,"avg_win_pct":3.53802101579769,"avg_loss_pct":2.5608556471333115,"mean_pct":0.8274091656061336,"quarter_kelly":0.05846553496373058,"buyhold_pct":-7.902368293861772,"reasons":{"target":4,"stop":3,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":3.5555555555555554,"ledger":[{"entry":"2025-01-14","entry_i":845,"entry_raw":91.62,"stop":89.813,"target":94.3305,"adr":1.8069999999999986,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2025-01-16","exit_raw":94.3305,"return":0.026500027205249355,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2025-01-17","entry_i":848,"entry_raw":93.82,"stop":91.98599999999999,"target":96.571,"adr":1.83399999 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. :628,"entry_raw":77.85,"stop":76.103,"target":80.47049999999999,"adr":1.7469999999999999,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-03-04","exit_raw":76.103,"return":-0.02536887521661013,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024-03-08","entry_i":632,"entry_raw":79.35,"stop":77.42049999999999,"target":82.24425,"adr":1.9294999999999995,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-03-21","exit_raw":80.89,"return":0.016354046386667376,"why":"time","sessions":10},{"entry":"2024-07-31","entry_i":731,"entry_raw":72.74,"stop":71.2815,"target":74.92774999999999,"adr":1.4584999999999995,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-08-02","exit_raw":71.2815,"return":-0.02298630886826125,"why":"stop","sessions":3},{"entry":"2024-08-09","entry_i":738,"entry_raw":75.75,"stop":74.02,"target":78.345,"adr":1.7300000000000026,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2024-08-09","exit_raw":74.02,"return":-0.025765376873782775,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024-08-12","entry_i":739,"entry_raw":76.07,"stop":74.28649999999999,"target":78.74525,"adr":1.7835000000000023,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2024-08-23","exit_raw":76.93,"return":0.008276006067435393,"why":"time","sessions":10},{"entry":"2024-08-30","entry_i":753,"entry_raw":79.28,"stop":77.643,"target":81.7355,"adr":1.6370000000000011,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2024-09-03","exit_raw":77.643,"return":-0.02358198806369116,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2024-09-25","entry_i":770,"entry_raw":81.66,"stop":80.12899999999999,"target":83.95649999999999,"adr":1.5310000000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-09-25","exit_raw":80.12899999999999,"return":-0.02168781336917669,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 8-25","entry_i":247,"entry_raw":105.31,"stop":101.9165,"target":110.40025,"adr":3.3934999999999986,"regime":"low","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-30","exit_raw":101.9165,"return":-0.03512288871179292,"why":"stop","sessions":4},{"entry":"2023-02-13","entry_i":364,"entry_raw":82.07,"stop":79.71549999999999,"target":85.60175,"adr":2.3545000000000016,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-02-13","exit_raw":79.71549999999999,"return":-0.03159849151100791,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2023-06-16","entry_i":450,"entry_raw":65.86,"stop":63.7515,"target":69.02275,"adr":2.1084999999999994,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2023-06-27","exit_raw":63.7515,"return":-0.03491448455188462,"why":"stop","sessions":7},{"entry":"2023-07-19","entry_i":471,"entry_raw":71.4,"stop":69.42,"target":74.37,"adr":1.9800000000000004,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-07-24","exit_raw":74.37,"return":0.03847653046184041,"why":"target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2023-07-25","entry_i":475,"entry_raw":75.14,"stop":73.1255,"target":78.16175,"adr":2.014500000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-08-03","exit_raw":78.16175,"return":0.037098962842228245,"why":"gap_target","sessions":8},{"entry":"2023-12-22","entry_i":581,"entry_raw":75.25,"stop":73.294,"target":78.184,"adr":1.9560000000000017,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-01-04","exit_raw":78.184,"return":0.03587773312921394,"why":"gap_target","sessions":8},{"entry":"2024-02-26","entry_i":623,"entry_raw":75.53,"stop":73.879,"target":78.0065,"adr":1.6510000000000011,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-03-01","exit_raw":78.0065,"return":0.02969457328418157,"why":"target","sessions":5},{"entry":"2024-03-04","entry_i" https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 2,"stop":80.2625,"target":90.15625,"adr":3.9574999999999974,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-09","exit_raw":80.2625,"return":-0.04984477249675956,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-03-22","entry_i":139,"entry_raw":92.44,"stop":88.1625,"target":98.85624999999999,"adr":4.277499999999999,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-25","exit_raw":98.85624999999999,"return":0.06620646456820856,"why":"target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2022-03-28","entry_i":143,"entry_raw":96.7,"stop":92.358,"target":103.21300000000001,"adr":4.342000000000001,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-29","exit_raw":87.41,"return":-0.09877804667436729,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-07-28","entry_i":227,"entry_raw":86.99,"stop":83.62899999999999,"target":92.0315,"adr":3.361000000000003,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-02","exit_raw":92.0315,"return":0.05478582778597296,"why":"target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2022-08-03","entry_i":231,"entry_raw":91.2,"stop":87.752,"target":96.37200000000001,"adr":3.4480000000000026,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-04","exit_raw":87.752,"return":-0.04068927166891323,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-08-10","entry_i":236,"entry_raw":95.97,"stop":92.32,"target":101.445,"adr":3.65,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-15","exit_raw":92.32,"return":-0.040914296594365074,"why":"stop","sessions":4},{"entry":"2022-08-23","entry_i":245,"entry_raw":97.96,"stop":94.52799999999999,"target":103.10799999999999,"adr":3.4319999999999986,"regime":"low","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-24","exit_raw":103.10799999999999,"return":0.04939913684424657,"why":"target","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-0 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. {"train":{"N":30,"return_pct":-8.286043328630566,"drawdown_pct":17.767605770615248,"win_rate_pct":43.333333333333336,"avg_win_pct":4.358565510987818,"avg_loss_pct":3.6696344482255188,"mean_pct":-0.19074779923307306,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":16,"target":9,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.533333333333333,"ledger":[{"entry":"2022-02-02","entry_i":106,"entry_raw":66.9,"stop":63.891000000000005,"target":71.4135,"adr":3.0089999999999995,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-02-08","exit_raw":63.891000000000005,"return":-0.04783835314751428,"why":"stop","sessions":5},{"entry":"2022-02-14","entry_i":114,"entry_raw":68.57,"stop":65.25649999999999,"target":73.54024999999999,"adr":3.3134999999999977,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-02-14","exit_raw":65.25649999999999,"return":-0.0511736355254474,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2022-02-25","entry_i":122,"entry_raw":70.92,"stop":67.3255,"target":76.31174999999999,"adr":3.5944999999999965,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-01","exit_raw":76.31174999999999,"return":0.07280256278436448,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2022-03-02","entry_i":125,"entry_raw":76.3,"stop":72.6545,"target":81.76825,"adr":3.6454999999999984,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-04","exit_raw":81.76825,"return":0.06845757245479933,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2022-03-07","entry_i":128,"entry_raw":83.58,"stop":79.885,"target":89.1225,"adr":3.6949999999999976,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-07","exit_raw":89.1225,"return":0.06311956309951783,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2022-03-08","entry_i":129,"entry_raw":84.2 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. {"regime_high":{"N":11,"mean_pct":-2.164598821915098,"win_rate_pct":18.181818181818183,"compound_pct":-21.828029514327206},"regime_low":{"N":6,"mean_pct":-0.6910998417203607,"win_rate_pct":33.33333333333333,"compound_pct":-4.319734373805328},"market_down":{"N":1,"mean_pct":-5.085576077975295,"win_rate_pct":0.0,"compound_pct":-5.085576077975295},"market_up":{"N":16,"mean_pct":-1.4294756258383092,"win_rate_pct":25.0,"compound_pct":-21.19727864821802}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. {"seed":2026090806,"draws":20000,"mean_CI95_pct":[-3.0410334374370342,-0.06387906840418991],"block3_20trade_paths":{"0.05":{"loss_probability":0.99625,"median_return_pct":-1.5974233100766178,"p95_maxdrawdown_pct":2.726001223157105,"prob_loss_5pct":0.0},"0.1":{"loss_probability":0.9964,"median_return_pct":-3.175251831752207,"p95_maxdrawdown_pct":5.384157516762951,"prob_loss_5pct":0.0721},"0.25":{"loss_probability":0.99655,"median_return_pct":-7.796889697248554,"p95_maxdrawdown_pct":12.965156453745793,"prob_loss_5pct":0.8419}},"target_frequency":0.23529411764705882,"stop_frequency":0.7647058823529411,"timeout_frequency":0.0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. {"N":1255,"correlations":{"CF":{"CF":1.0,"MOS":0.6313365933539941,"NTR":0.6781180906049433,"SPY":0.16179406244524797},"MOS":{"CF":0.6313365933539941,"MOS":1.0,"NTR":0.7258274968464534,"SPY":0.3405289472144},"NTR":{"CF":0.6781180906049433,"MOS":0.7258274968464534,"NTR":1.0,"SPY":0.2789713208579252},"SPY":{"CF":0.16179406244524797,"MOS":0.3405289472144,"NTR":0.2789713208579252,"SPY":1.0}},"CF_quantiles_pct":{"0.01":-6.540739770582314,"0.05":-3.846322961221533,"0.5":0.12647937362295636,"0.95":3.8532725391281524,"0.99":6.1829915621084925},"CF_annual_vol_pct":38.393541633665606,"ols_coefficients":{"intercept":0.0008761287460149585,"SPY":-0.17472198142308099,"MOS":0.28639843577330765,"NTR":0.5253626264393536},"R2":0.5059982813103294} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. {"close":133.35,"SMA20":125.69825,"SMA50":120.7731,"prior20high":141.185,"ADR20":4.444750000000003,"signal":false,"reference_stop":128.90525,"reference_target":140.017125} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. {"CF":{"N":1256,"first":"2021-09-01","last":"2026-09-04","zero_volume":0,"median_dollar_volume_20":14058500.870000001,"max_abs_logreturn_pct":12.408486374341443},"MOS":{"N":1256,"first":"2021-09-01","last":"2026-09-04","zero_volume":0,"median_dollar_volume_20":11250092.379999999,"max_abs_logreturn_pct":14.202931929491358},"NTR":{"N":1256,"first":"2021-09-01","last":"2026-09-04","zero_volume":0,"median_dollar_volume_20":9927895.715,"max_abs_logreturn_pct":15.204663045430067},"SPY":{"N":1258,"first":"2021-09-01","last":"2026-09-04","zero_volume":0,"median_dollar_volume_20":936260323.59,"max_abs_logreturn_pct":8.924159325219794}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. eturn":0.042528505821405105,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-09-03","entry_i":1254,"entry_raw":138.375,"stop":133.70625,"target":145.378125,"adr":4.668750000000002,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-09-04","exit_raw":133.70625,"return":-0.03952005050938423,"why":"stop","sessions":2}]}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. n":-0.0440804265200202,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-31","entry_i":1146,"entry_raw":133.27,"stop":126.8725,"target":142.86625,"adr":6.397500000000001,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2026-03-31","exit_raw":126.8725,"return":-0.053698935842756756,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-05-13","entry_i":1176,"entry_raw":127.9,"stop":123.34,"target":134.74,"adr":4.5600000000000005,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-05-14","exit_raw":123.34,"return":-0.04142162315023623,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-07-09","entry_i":1214,"entry_raw":116.32,"stop":113.014,"target":121.279,"adr":3.3059999999999996,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-07-10","exit_raw":113.014,"return":-0.03423362267848484,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-07-14","entry_i":1217,"entry_raw":121.28,"stop":118.1635,"target":125.95475,"adr":3.1165,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-07-15","exit_raw":118.1635,"return":-0.03152506215214468,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-07-21","entry_i":1222,"entry_raw":123.63,"stop":120.457,"target":128.3895,"adr":3.1730000000000005,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-07-23","exit_raw":128.3895,"return":0.03228559456339375,"why":"gap_target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2026-08-24","entry_i":1246,"entry_raw":129.86,"stop":126.04575000000001,"target":135.581375,"adr":3.8142500000000004,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-08-25","exit_raw":126.04575000000001,"return":-0.035178357638355306,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-09-02","entry_i":1253,"entry_raw":132.88,"stop":128.55675,"target":139.364875,"adr":4.3232500000000025,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-09-02","exit_raw":139.364875,"r https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 82.36,"return":-0.02851170452269991,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-01-21","entry_i":1098,"entry_raw":88.62,"stop":86.492,"target":91.81200000000001,"adr":2.128000000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-01-27","exit_raw":91.81200000000001,"return":0.029821443889158417,"why":"target","sessions":5},{"entry":"2026-01-29","entry_i":1104,"entry_raw":92.76,"stop":90.2395,"target":96.54075,"adr":2.5204999999999993,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-02-02","exit_raw":89.93,"return":-0.036308381104457,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":3},{"entry":"2026-02-11","entry_i":1113,"entry_raw":95.24,"stop":92.631,"target":99.1535,"adr":2.6090000000000004,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-02-12","exit_raw":92.631,"return":-0.033212126612040205,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-02-20","entry_i":1119,"entry_raw":98.47,"stop":95.941,"target":102.2635,"adr":2.529,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-02-20","exit_raw":95.941,"return":-0.031511358911946896,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-06","entry_i":1129,"entry_raw":111.76,"stop":108.355,"target":116.8675,"adr":3.405000000000001,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-03-06","exit_raw":116.8675,"return":0.039445178903906974,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-09","entry_i":1130,"entry_raw":115.28,"stop":111.638,"target":120.743,"adr":3.6420000000000003,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-03-09","exit_raw":111.638,"return":-0.03738570171875377,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-13","entry_i":1134,"entry_raw":132.15,"stop":127.08500000000001,"target":139.7475,"adr":5.065,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-03-13","exit_raw":127.08500000000001,"retur https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 9999999,"adr":1.8840000000000003,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-13","exit_raw":93.76599999999999,"return":0.0249074932793516,"why":"gap_target","sessions":2},{"entry":"2025-06-16","entry_i":948,"entry_raw":98.52,"stop":96.642,"target":101.337,"adr":1.8780000000000008,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-16","exit_raw":101.337,"return":0.022440086943324777,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2025-06-17","entry_i":949,"entry_raw":99.14,"stop":97.159,"target":102.1115,"adr":1.981000000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-18","exit_raw":97.159,"return":-0.025844357923686334,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2025-09-25","entry_i":1018,"entry_raw":89.8,"stop":88.1505,"target":92.27425,"adr":1.6494999999999997,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-09-25","exit_raw":88.1505,"return":-0.02424076146670817,"why":"stop","sessions":1}]},"holdout":{"N":17,"return_pct":-28.923777021309117,"drawdown_pct":29.65110665582862,"win_rate_pct":23.52941176470588,"avg_win_pct":3.602018079446606,"avg_loss_pct":3.644145110033746,"mean_pct":-1.9391655360383688,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":75.16090897149613,"reasons":{"stop":12,"target":3,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":1.8823529411764706,"ledger":[{"entry":"2026-01-09","entry_i":1091,"entry_raw":81.35,"stop":79.61749999999999,"target":83.94874999999999,"adr":1.7325000000000004,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-01-12","exit_raw":79.61749999999999,"return":-0.027151512943106915,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-01-15","entry_i":1095,"entry_raw":84.27,"stop":82.36,"target":87.13499999999999,"adr":1.9100000000000008,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-01-15","exit_raw": https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. p_stop":1,"time":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":3.1,"ledger":[{"entry":"2025-01-14","entry_i":843,"entry_raw":91.63,"stop":90.07249999999999,"target":93.96624999999999,"adr":1.5574999999999988,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2025-01-16","exit_raw":93.96624999999999,"return":0.019361994259914583,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2025-01-17","entry_i":846,"entry_raw":93.56,"stop":91.9525,"target":95.97125,"adr":1.6074999999999988,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2025-01-21","exit_raw":91.89,"return":-0.023724778133397684,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2025-05-06","entry_i":920,"entry_raw":78.63,"stop":76.37349999999999,"target":82.01474999999999,"adr":2.2565000000000004,"regime":"low","market":"down","exit":"2025-05-12","exit_raw":82.01474999999999,"return":0.0368069942946192,"why":"target","sessions":5},{"entry":"2025-05-14","entry_i":926,"entry_raw":85.26,"stop":83.28450000000001,"target":88.22325000000001,"adr":1.9755000000000003,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-05-14","exit_raw":83.28450000000001,"return":-0.029013743162201178,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2025-05-21","entry_i":931,"entry_raw":84.93,"stop":82.828,"target":88.08300000000001,"adr":2.1019999999999994,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-05-27","exit_raw":88.08300000000001,"return":0.030920562915583538,"why":"target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2025-05-28","entry_i":935,"entry_raw":88.71,"stop":86.5445,"target":91.95824999999999,"adr":2.1654999999999993,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-10","exit_raw":89.72,"return":0.0053352586911401545,"why":"time","sessions":10},{"entry":"2025-06-12","entry_i":946,"entry_raw":90.94,"stop":89.056,"target":93.7659999 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. t":"up","exit":"2024-09-25","exit_raw":80.1595,"return":-0.022571367113119356,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024-09-30","entry_i":771,"entry_raw":81.48,"stop":80.06,"target":83.61000000000001,"adr":1.4200000000000017,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-10-01","exit_raw":83.61000000000001,"return":0.020002959031578005,"why":"target","sessions":2},{"entry":"2024-10-02","entry_i":773,"entry_raw":83.99,"stop":82.61049999999999,"target":86.05924999999999,"adr":1.3795000000000015,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-10-04","exit_raw":86.05924999999999,"return":0.01850743629942464,"why":"gap_target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2024-10-07","entry_i":776,"entry_raw":86.24,"stop":84.83149999999999,"target":88.35275,"adr":1.4085000000000014,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-10-07","exit_raw":84.83149999999999,"return":-0.022216674023240124,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024-11-21","entry_i":809,"entry_raw":86.43,"stop":84.63300000000001,"target":89.1255,"adr":1.7970000000000006,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-11-25","exit_raw":84.63300000000001,"return":-0.026649063190525735,"why":"stop","sessions":3},{"entry":"2024-12-04","entry_i":817,"entry_raw":90.77,"stop":88.932,"target":93.52699999999999,"adr":1.8379999999999987,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-12-04","exit_raw":88.932,"return":-0.026109896980928804,"why":"stop","sessions":1}]},"validation":{"N":10,"return_pct":3.4287750291811303,"drawdown_pct":5.329027458107028,"win_rate_pct":60.0,"avg_win_pct":2.329539839732231,"avg_loss_pct":2.5705910171498343,"mean_pct":0.36948749697940486,"quarter_kelly":0.03965241232168361,"buyhold_pct":-7.993238348225051,"reasons":{"target":4,"stop":3,"ga https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. :"up","exit":"2024-03-01","exit_raw":77.6635,"return":0.02385826711818595,"why":"target","sessions":5},{"entry":"2024-03-04","entry_i":626,"entry_raw":77.38,"stop":75.80199999999999,"target":79.747,"adr":1.5779999999999987,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-03-04","exit_raw":75.80199999999999,"return":-0.02625292168449611,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024-03-08","entry_i":630,"entry_raw":79.67,"stop":77.935,"target":82.2725,"adr":1.7349999999999988,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-03-21","exit_raw":80.87,"return":0.008989982540268393,"why":"time","sessions":10},{"entry":"2024-07-31","entry_i":729,"entry_raw":72.75,"stop":71.428,"target":74.733,"adr":1.3220000000000005,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-08-02","exit_raw":71.428,"return":-0.0240451630112134,"why":"stop","sessions":3},{"entry":"2024-08-09","entry_i":736,"entry_raw":75.39,"stop":73.799,"target":77.7765,"adr":1.5909999999999989,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2024-08-12","exit_raw":77.7765,"return":0.025483981555509905,"why":"target","sessions":2},{"entry":"2024-08-13","entry_i":738,"entry_raw":76.65,"stop":74.97850000000001,"target":79.15725,"adr":1.6714999999999995,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2024-08-26","exit_raw":78.14,"return":0.013340677046439264,"why":"time","sessions":10},{"entry":"2024-08-30","entry_i":751,"entry_raw":79.35,"stop":77.87249999999999,"target":81.56625,"adr":1.4775000000000005,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2024-09-03","exit_raw":77.87249999999999,"return":-0.02449069826065442,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2024-09-25","entry_i":768,"entry_raw":81.52,"stop":80.1595,"target":83.56075,"adr":1.3605000000000012,"regime":"low","marke https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. egime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-02-13","exit_raw":79.8405,"return":-0.03227788774863094,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2023-06-16","entry_i":448,"entry_raw":65.61,"stop":63.7075,"target":68.46375,"adr":1.9024999999999992,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2023-06-27","exit_raw":63.7075,"return":-0.034805688461569395,"why":"stop","sessions":7},{"entry":"2023-07-14","entry_i":466,"entry_raw":68.94,"stop":67.099,"target":71.7015,"adr":1.8409999999999993,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2023-07-18","exit_raw":71.7015,"return":0.03383490428268621,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2023-07-19","entry_i":469,"entry_raw":71.38,"stop":69.544,"target":74.134,"adr":1.8359999999999999,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-07-24","exit_raw":74.134,"return":0.0323693888122869,"why":"gap_target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2023-07-25","entry_i":473,"entry_raw":75.23,"stop":73.342,"target":78.06200000000001,"adr":1.8880000000000003,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-08-04","exit_raw":78.06200000000001,"return":0.031437318825302096,"why":"target","sessions":9},{"entry":"2023-09-26","entry_i":517,"entry_raw":79.97,"stop":78.1995,"target":82.62575,"adr":1.770499999999999,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-09-27","exit_raw":78.1995,"return":-0.027989158886460253,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2023-12-22","entry_i":579,"entry_raw":75.34,"stop":73.538,"target":78.043,"adr":1.802000000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-01-04","exit_raw":78.043,"return":0.029680689595284804,"why":"gap_target","sessions":8},{"entry":"2024-02-26","entry_i":621,"entry_raw":75.4,"stop":73.891,"target":77.6635,"adr":1.5089999999999997,"regime":"low","market" https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. "exit":"2022-03-25","exit_raw":98.5945,"return":0.06364991456330071,"why":"target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2022-03-28","entry_i":141,"entry_raw":96.64,"stop":92.26,"target":103.21000000000001,"adr":4.380000000000001,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-29","exit_raw":86.82,"return":-0.10698842370651296,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-07-28","entry_i":225,"entry_raw":87.24,"stop":84.04249999999999,"target":92.03625,"adr":3.1975000000000016,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-02","exit_raw":92.03625,"return":0.04866672264506833,"why":"target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2022-08-03","entry_i":229,"entry_raw":91.24,"stop":87.937,"target":96.19449999999999,"adr":3.303000000000001,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-04","exit_raw":87.937,"return":-0.041966716492849,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-08-10","entry_i":234,"entry_raw":95.7,"stop":92.197,"target":100.95450000000001,"adr":3.503000000000001,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-15","exit_raw":92.197,"return":-0.042367050474403034,"why":"stop","sessions":4},{"entry":"2022-08-23","entry_i":243,"entry_raw":97.74,"stop":94.51849999999999,"target":102.57225,"adr":3.2215000000000003,"regime":"low","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-24","exit_raw":102.57225,"return":0.04316204259117451,"why":"target","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-08-25","entry_i":245,"entry_raw":105.65,"stop":102.4825,"target":110.40125,"adr":3.1675000000000004,"regime":"low","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-30","exit_raw":101.99,"return":-0.0404175003372641,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":4},{"entry":"2023-02-13","entry_i":362,"entry_raw":82.01,"stop":79.8405,"target":85.26425,"adr":2.1694999999999993,"r https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars