Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
ASPI Derived helium_annual_revenue_m_at600 = 15.33
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
15.33. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard. https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived helium_daily_revenue_at600 = 42000
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
42000. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard. https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
FRO 04UTC due-monitor primary five-carrier reread = 5
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
Sep8participantreleaseunchangedread04:07UTC. NamesKaviz,Charminar,Horizon1,Riesco,GulfOman;DeryanearKharg. NoIMO/cargoloadings/survival/insurance/paidreplacementfixture provided. Sameoriginnotnewindependentcorroboration. Noallocationfromclaim. https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4593050/us-destroys-5-irgc-tankers-after-iran-targets-another-american-warship/
USGS 2025 estimated production and base price = 190
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
Feb2026reportcovers2025: world190millionm3,US81,Qatar63,Russia18;producerbase330USD/Mcf excludestransport/surcharges. Conversion27.737m3=1000cf=4.7kg. NewUS6operations andcavernstartupsin2025. NotcurrentSeptavailability; counterpart toissuerJune23claimRussia20%globalUSGS2025, differentdefinitionorerrorunresolved. No assumedcurrentexport-lawfindingfromissuerretelling. https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf
ASPI CMD forecast wording versus accepted helium
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
Original99pagePDFretrievedexacthref200; browsernormalizedpluspath403isretrievalerror. Sep8p12firstheliumweeksaway andapproximately27mcombinedannualrevenue; p93Septemberdelivery/2Hnameplateexpected. p57conditionalDFC/SB notbinding. NoacceptedSeptemberheliumcashdisclosedinreadpages. Video linkASPVideoV5.mp4 notconfirmedfullQ&A; webcastJSregistrationnoaccessibletranscriptyet. https://ir.aspisotopes.com/news-events/capital-markets-day
ASPI Annual supplier and customer concentration risks
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
Apr10annual2025 riskfactorsoriginalread: Virginiaplantsemiconductorslimited/singlesourcewithpastshortages;limitedenrichmentcomponentvendorsbutnosignificantdelaystodate;fewRenergencustomersweakennegotiatingleverage;onlylocalLNGsourcecan deterfuelconversion;sitehazardousstoragelimitsincreasedeliverycomplexity. Historicalrisknotcurrentoutage. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526151294/aspi-20251231.htm
ASPI Q2 versus H1 segment operating bridge = 1.248
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
Aug14filing, June30period; originaltablesread. H1Helium/LNGrevenue1.248m,costsales2.314m,grossloss1.066m,operatingloss9.797m,netbeforeNCI-15.990m. Q2onlyrevenue.654m,costsales1.494m,grossloss.840m,personnel1.085m,professional.692m,other3.181m,operatingloss5.798m,netbeforeNCI-5.987m. AnnualizingQ2expenseillustration notsteadycashcostforecast. Historicalmemory343's.654/-5.987areQ2notH1. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm
ASPI Aug6 priced LNG tranche and total contracted volume = 10
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
IssuerAug6: fiveyear domesticfoodprocessorcontract >16USD/GJ atthenFX, all-inplantgate,10%plannedcapacity. TotalLNG75%contracted. Do not applythisonepricefloor toentire75%;customerunnamed,fulfillment/FXtermsunread. https://ir.aspisotopes.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/116/asp-isotopes-inc-announces-that-renergen-limiteds
PDUFA VII goal structure, not embargo = 90
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:08
FY2023–27 goals letter page4:review/act90% priorityNME/originalBLA within6months of60dayfilingdate; standard10months. Page5 major amendment may extendgoal3months. These are review-performance cohorts, not90%approvalodds, no promise news waits for deadline. Closest source FDA/industry agreement; no exposure hazard frequency inferable. https://www.fda.gov/media/151712/download
TLX Gozellix advance notice date correction
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:08
PDF header page1 is17October2024, correcting23October2024in17167. Goal remains24March2025, unaffected. Corrected event artifact before backtest; retrieval clock2026-09-09. https://telixpharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/TLX_Telix_Q3_2024_Revenue_and_Business_Update.pdf
RARE Original DTX401 advance notice recovered for T20 entry = 23
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:08
Original issuerFeb23 2026release confirmsAug23 2026PDUFA; supersedes temporary historical-vintage gap in17180. Enough advance notice for plannedJul27 T20entry, exact calendar determined bySPYsession index. LaterAug4Q2reaffirmation cannot be mistaken for original announcement. https://ir.ultragenyx.com/node/18466
MIRM Ctexli earlier FDA public date supersedes issuer-only timestamp = 35
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:08
FDA immediate release Feb21 2025, goalMar28 verified advanceJan13 issuer https://ir.mirumpharma.com/news/news-details/2025/Mirum-Pharmaceuticals-Announces-Preliminary-Unaudited-2024-Net-Product-Sales-and-Cash-Balance-and-Provides-Corporate-Updates/default.aspx . 35calendar days early; issuer approval PR datedFeb24 is32days early but not earliest public news. PreviousDec28 2024goal superseded. FDA multidisciplinePDF apparent2028 extension-year typo resolved by dated advance issuer2025Mar28 and FDA administrativeotherreview03/28/2025. Both T20/T6 andT10/T2 windows skip resolved catalyst. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-treatment-cerebrotendinous-xanthomatosis-rare-lipid-storage-disease
CRCL Sep8 filing quantifies Tazapay equity consideration = 400
Crypto majors2026-09-09 04:06
Agreement datedSep4, filed/announcedSep8, observedSep9 04UTC. Base consideration400mUSD paid in CRCL shares using closing20tradingdayVWAP, subject adjustments; additional25m incentiveRSUs. Outside date9months, regulatory extensions up to15months. Stock consideration is not400mUSDCmint orBTCspotpurchase. Primary issuer legal summary; supersedes unknownconsideration on pressrelease only. No precise closingdate;2027expectation retained. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1876042/000187604226000267/crcl-20260904.htm
INBX QTR9090400 INBX actual full-file monitor comparison = 0
Quant replication2026-09-09 04:05
Sep9 04:05:06UTC directGET both200. Hexagon1465627bytes SHA4b465a1d2d8b78ada0ee20f6e6d0399cd93628dc7fdd27b72afdccbcea38d425; corporate2342296bytes SHAd68a840041399e3e7557665760b1c203d3061d1c82754b25f00851e7971ff3fd. Both match03:30 scheduledjob119 actualoutput(note1334) and02UTC baseline. No substantive change in these files; coverage is twoPDFs not allnewinformation. Job84 actual04:01 output retainsSep8 INBX release; TYRA/IRD listings retain announcedSep9 calls. Hashes/LastModified are not publication timestamps. Safety baseline15/31 vs4/34 remains; no clinical-stock validatededge. https://inhibrx.com/hexagon-slides/ ; https://inhibrx.com/investor-deck/ ; query_research quant notes1334/1338
RARE Aspire publication metadata and overlapping risk attribution = 17
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:05
Retrieved2026-09-09 04:05UTC. Direct HTML JSON-LD datePublished2026-09-02T16:01:36-0400; issuer metadata not guaranteed earliest disclosure. Phase3 Aspire missed primary Bayley4 and key secondary MDRI. This was 17calendar days before UX111 Sep19 goal, not an early UX111 FDA decision. Aug4 advance source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1515673/000119312526332802/rare-ex99_1.htm had already scheduled Aspire September/October. Ledger enteredSep2 14:31UTC, news20:01:36UTC, exitSep3 13:45:56UTC at13.98976 vsentry25.84/stop24. Loss45.8600619%,6.44035plannedR. No concurrent executable quote means cannot estimate order-type slippage. https://ir.ultragenyx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ultragenyx-announces-phase-3-aspire-results-angelman-syndrome
NUVL Paired FDA goal and announcement date: zidesamtinib = 58
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:04
{"symbol":"NUVL","drug":"zidesamtinib","target":"2026-09-18","notice":"2025-11-19","announcement":"2026-07-22","earliest_us":"2026-07-22","outcome":"approval","target_source":"https://investors.nuvalent.com/2025-11-19-Nuvalent-Announces-FDA-Acceptance-of-New-Drug-Application-for-Zidesamtinib-for-the-Treatment-of-TKI-Pre-treated-Patients-with-Advanced-ROS1-positive-NSCLC","news_source":"https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/jideytro-zidesamtinib-approved-in-the-us-for-previously-treated-ros1-positive-non-small-cell-lung-cancer/","caveat":"58days early; GSK announcement and FDA origin confirm. NUVL bars stopJul14; no invented tradability. Resolved before both entry windows."} Measured2026-09-09; value calendar days target minus publisher-local announcement date. Sources are sponsor/SEC, participant with favorable framing, not independent statistical corroboration. Selected six-issuer case series, not population denominator. https://investors.nuvalent.com/2025-11-19-Nuvalent-Announces-FDA-Acceptance-of-New-Drug-Application-for-Zidesamtinib-for-the-Treatment-of-TKI-Pre-treated-Patients-with-Advanced-ROS1-positive-NSCLC
RARE Paired FDA goal and announcement date: DTX401 = 4
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:04
{"symbol":"RARE","drug":"DTX401","target":"2026-08-23","notice":"2026-08-04","announcement":"2026-08-19","earliest_us":"2026-08-19","outcome":"approval","target_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1515673/000119312526332802/rare-ex99_1.htm","news_source":"https://ir.ultragenyx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ultragenyx-announces-us-fda-approval-genglycostm-gene-therapy","caveat":"Latest Q2 notice not early enough for T20 entry; must recover original February notice before including early rule. FDA confirms Aug19 https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/genglycos ."} Measured2026-09-09; value calendar days target minus publisher-local announcement date. Sources are sponsor/SEC, participant with favorable framing, not independent statistical corroboration. Selected six-issuer case series, not population denominator. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1515673/000119312526332802/rare-ex99_1.htm
USDT/USD USDT reconstructed daily history retrieved = 3207
Crypto majors2026-09-09 04:04
RetrievedSep9 04:04UTC:3207daily records fromNov29 2017 toSep9 2026; latest183,429,526,759.77252 circulating,10,097,402,097.59674 unreleased. No vintage publication timestamps; current day excluded. For substitution control, not traded USDT. https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1
IONS Paired FDA goal and announcement date: olezarsen sHTG = 6
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:04
{"symbol":"IONS","drug":"olezarsen sHTG","target":"2026-06-30","notice":"2026-04-29","announcement":"2026-06-24","earliest_us":"2026-06-24","outcome":"approval","target_source":"https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ionis-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and","news_source":"https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tryngolzar-olezarsen-approved-fda-first-and-only-treatment","caveat":"Six calendar days early; exact public minute unverified; call15:30ET not first-news proof."} Measured2026-09-09; value calendar days target minus publisher-local announcement date. Sources are sponsor/SEC, participant with favorable framing, not independent statistical corroboration. Selected six-issuer case series, not population denominator. https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ionis-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and
USDC/USD USDC reconstructed daily history retrieved = 2921
Crypto majors2026-09-09 04:04
RetrievedSep9 04:04UTC:2921daily supply records fromSep11 2018 toSep9 2026; latest74,502,816,708.65785 circulating,1,192,176,384.871993 unreleased. Current reconstruction, no historical first-publication times. Provider closest to calculation, not original issuer; latest day excluded from completed-day tests. https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2
SRRK Paired FDA goal and announcement date: apitegromab = -1
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:04
{"symbol":"SRRK","drug":"apitegromab","target":"2025-09-22","notice":"2025-05-14","announcement":"2025-09-23","earliest_us":"2025-09-23","outcome":"CRL","target_source":"https://investors.scholarrock.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results-and/","news_source":"https://investors.scholarrock.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fda-issues-complete-response-letter-crl-apitegromab-treatment/","caveat":"Later issuer January2026 https://investors.scholarrock.com/node/11666/pdf says receipt Sep22. Receipt != publication."} Measured2026-09-09; value calendar days target minus publisher-local announcement date. Sources are sponsor/SEC, participant with favorable framing, not independent statistical corroboration. Selected six-issuer case series, not population denominator. https://investors.scholarrock.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results-and/
USDC/USD Q2 circulation definition includes corporate tokens = 889.3
Crypto majors2026-09-09 04:04
Q2June30 filing observedSep9: excludes allowed-not-issued,access-denied,pendingburn tokens; includes889.3m corporate-heldUSDC versus588.3m Jun2025; accessdenied123.2m vs166.6m. Primary issuer filing; corporate inventory can support expenses, so circulation is not synonymous with external crypto investment. Quarter-end balances cannot explain Sep7 weekly change. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1876042/000187604226000248/crcl-20260630.htm
TLX Paired FDA goal and announcement date: Zircaix = -1
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:04
{"symbol":"TLX","drug":"Zircaix","target":"2025-08-27","notice":"2025-04-22","announcement":"2025-08-28","earliest_us":"2025-08-27","outcome":"CRL","target_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007191/000200719125000047/q1bizupdate.htm","news_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007191/000200719125000065/zircprcrl.htm","caveat":"Australian Aug28 date may be Aug27 US; do not infer a one-day FDA delay."} Measured2026-09-09; value calendar days target minus publisher-local announcement date. Sources are sponsor/SEC, participant with favorable framing, not independent statistical corroboration. Selected six-issuer case series, not population denominator. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007191/000200719125000047/q1bizupdate.htm
June2026 stablecoin complexity research = 60
Crypto majors2026-09-09 04:04
WorkingpaperJun10 2026, observedSep9:593million eventlogs,141million Ethereumtransactions,3USDstablecoins; nearly60% transfer events embedded in complextransactions. Authors' own archive-node study, Ethereum-specific; doesnot classify tonight's global flows. Supports transaction-level tracing rather than treating every transfer as payment. https://www.bis.org/publ/work1359.pdf
IONS Paired FDA goal and announcement date: donidalorsen = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:04
{"symbol":"IONS","drug":"donidalorsen","target":"2025-08-21","notice":"2025-04-30","announcement":"2025-08-21","earliest_us":"2025-08-21","outcome":"approval","target_source":"https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ionis-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results","news_source":"https://ir.ionis.com/node/32936","caveat":"FDA date independently Aug21 https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-trials-snapshots/drug-trials-snapshots-dawnzera . Call12:15ET is not announcement minute."} Measured2026-09-09; value calendar days target minus publisher-local announcement date. Sources are sponsor/SEC, participant with favorable framing, not independent statistical corroboration. Selected six-issuer case series, not population denominator. https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ionis-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results
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