QTR9090400 complete experiment train_parent_0_0_6 = -4.019373946696813
Quant replication2026-09-09 04:09
Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"train_parent_0_0_6","period":"train","kind":"parent","stop_adr":0,"target_adr":0,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":-4.019373946696813,"drawdown_pct":9.711537908990564,"months":34,"ci_low":-0.7333212118978576,"ci_high":0.5053418843838198,"ambiguous":0,"sample":136,"win_rate":52.94117647058824,"average_win":1.3180079367671451,"average_loss":1.697221435896535,"mean":-0.10092353272164563,"quarter_kelly":0,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":34,"win_rate":55.88235294117647,"average_win":0.8637802913805097,"average_loss":1.1716566138770428,"mean":-0.034206578586057516,"quarter_kelly":0},"IWM":{"sample":34,"win_rate":55.88235294117647,"average_win":1.1900801994542798,"average_loss":1.970232236714698,"mean":-0.20417528709085753,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":34,"win_rate":52.94117647058824,"average_win":1.2122036490352397,"average_loss":1.7787475623340905,"mean":-0.1953028033738568,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":34,"win_rate":47.05882352941176,"average_win":2.1283472774211956,"average_loss":1.835215452286483,"mean":0.029990538164189354,"quarter_kelly":0.003522749609796663}}}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json
ASPI Derived full_utilization_flatcost_op_result_m
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
[3.2094999999999985,5.947000000000003]. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived 75pct_utilization_flatcost_op_result_m
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
[-4.044875000000001,-1.9917499999999961]. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived flatcost_operating_breakeven_joint_utilization_pct
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
[88.93943310071509,81.27224059203274]. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived Q2_gross_margin_pct = -128.44036697247705
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
-128.44036697247705. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived Q2_annualized_total_operating_cost_m = 25.808
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
25.808. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived Q2_annualized_segment_COGS_m = 5.976
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
5.976. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived Q2_annualized_segment_opex_m = 19.832
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
19.832. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived Q2_2026_segment_revenue_m = 0.654
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
0.654. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived H1_2026_segment_revenue_m = 1.248
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
1.248. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived H1_2025_helium_equiv_nameplate_days = 0.15987841945288753
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
0.15987841945288753. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived H1_2025_helium52_6kg_Mcf_USGS_conversion = 11.191489361702127
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
11.191489361702127. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived Russia2025world_pct = 9.473684210526317
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
9.473684210526317. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived USplusQatar2025world_pct = 75.78947368421053
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
75.78947368421053. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived phase1_pct2025Qatar = 1.1248894444444444
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
1.1248894444444444. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived phase1_pct2025world = 0.3729896578947368
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
0.3729896578947368. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived phase1_annual_million_m3_USGS_conversion = 0.70868035
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
0.70868035. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived phase1_annual_mcf = 25550
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
25550. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived 75pct_LNG_plus15pct_He_volume_price_scenario_m
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
[12.565125,14.618250000000002]. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived 10pct_LNG_tranche_annual_at16_m = 1.46
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
1.46. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived 15pct_He_tranche_annual_at600_m = 2.2995
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
2.2995. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived 75pct_joint_utilization_revenue_m
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
[21.763125,23.816250000000004]. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived utilization_implied_by27m_at_disclosed_prices_pct
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
[93.04729904368054,85.02598016060462]. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived combined_annual_revenue_m
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
[29.0175,31.755000000000003]. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm
ASPI Derived LNG_annual_revenue_m_at15_18
Supply chain2026-09-09 04:09
[13.6875,16.425]. Python helium_math.py Sep9; inputs17159–64,17189–93. USGS conversion/worldbaseline https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; costs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm . Nameplate and flatcost scenarios, NOT realizedcash/guaranteedcontractreceipts/currentmarketdeficit. 75%contracting not physicalcap; USGSconditions may differfromissuerMCFstandard.
https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-358072/aspi-ex99_1.htm