Notes

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_sensitivity_1.25_2_6","period":"extension","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":1.25,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":2.566322571986035,"drawdown_pct":1.9218360065978768,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.5288398389721772,"ci_high":1.4182422497278806,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.0251251982874128,"average_loss":1.3589702312316736,"mean":0.3330774835278695,"quarter_kelly":0.041118134796004596,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":1.391056415918075,"average_loss":0.7997466357895999,"mean":0.5695052715276969,"quarter_kelly":0.10235121757298257},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":3.2114492604611633,"average_loss":1.2450484447777723,"mean":-0.13092401846803853,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":1.9536217000167444,"average_loss":1.4508595716174966,"mean":0.2513810641996239,"quarter_kelly":0.03216859540891019},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":2.241867154403785,"average_loss":2.02351827906712,"mean":0.6423476168521958,"quarter_kelly":0.07163087424587224}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_sensitivity_1_2_16","period":"extension","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":1,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":-0.43466671842563587,"drawdown_pct":3.316425889969621,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.9996167492874176,"ci_high":1.1360477635414326,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":2.171070499185146,"average_loss":1.366462521514646,"mean":-0.03988763875222394,"quarter_kelly":0,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.47457790862943,"average_loss":0.784443173558751,"mean":0.06268973226181696,"quarter_kelly":0.010628419816774023},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":3.005232424113957,"average_loss":1.5068986111149762,"mean":-0.3788658523077429,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.7926217233724822,"average_loss":1.4925792575827868,"mean":-0.26062888972456094,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.560195561497025,"average_loss":1.725686651973843,"mean":0.4172544547615911,"quarter_kelly":0.04074439283435145}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_sensitivity_1_2_6","period":"extension","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":1,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":1.171192973062385,"drawdown_pct":2.8316997632800156,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.8014176350223889,"ci_high":1.338522485646671,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":40.625,"average_win":2.206607138661208,"average_loss":1.2399179680423695,"mean":0.16023285655595887,"quarter_kelly":0.018153758971020922,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":1.3029189562979882,"average_loss":0.7768877806453689,"mean":0.2630155878263096,"quarter_kelly":0.05046660549279702},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":3.2114492604611633,"average_loss":1.3097150769153465,"mean":-0.17942399257121905,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.996410908846591,"average_loss":1.2953670559872021,"mean":-0.060950319174529755,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.7655214324854125,"average_loss":1.5289411321988633,"mean":0.6182901501432747,"quarter_kelly":0.05589272811995609}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_sensitivity_0.75_2_16","period":"extension","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":0.75,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":0.26470112375052146,"drawdown_pct":2.700608371936386,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.8098792175131344,"ci_high":1.1331242045635743,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":34.375,"average_win":2.3329780210508213,"average_loss":1.154459173809135,"mean":0.044347361923974954,"quarter_kelly":0.004752226716649488,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.47457790862943,"average_loss":0.6988420229077152,"mean":0.11619045141871426,"quarter_kelly":0.019698933969299268},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":3.005232424113957,"average_loss":1.1997950920818032,"mean":-0.14853821303286302,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":2.493888705727365,"average_loss":1.3423522094993736,"mean":-0.38329198069268905,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.560195561497025,"average_loss":1.37413718149155,"mean":0.5930291900027376,"quarter_kelly":0.0579085831294832}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_sensitivity_0.75_2_6","period":"extension","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":0.75,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":1.8818407114660651,"drawdown_pct":2.212794824834252,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.6113002480444475,"ci_high":1.3355930736935,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":2.3412353113643425,"average_loss":1.013322793220589,"mean":0.24463649599876028,"quarter_kelly":0.026122587380612294,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":1.3029189562979882,"average_loss":0.6696721250770282,"mean":0.31662341561047996,"quarter_kelly":0.06075270723478246},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":3.2114492604611633,"average_loss":1.0019967355606563,"mean":0.05136476344479862,"quarter_kelly":0.0039985657003205055},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":2.69908183015809,"average_loss":1.1448392528269715,"mean":-0.18385898208070628,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.7655214324854125,"average_loss":1.176687858444475,"mean":0.7944167870204688,"quarter_kelly":0.07181437627718143}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_sensitivity_0.75_1.5_16","period":"extension","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":0.75,"target_adr":1.5,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":-0.9696614935722492,"drawdown_pct":2.906433046651413,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.8294034192138491,"ci_high":0.7626321865974592,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":34.375,"average_win":1.8710416723412893,"average_loss":1.154459173809135,"mean":-0.11444325794492671,"quarter_kelly":0,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.2498481464440512,"average_loss":0.6988420229077152,"mean":0.03191679059919711,"quarter_kelly":0.006384133682560508},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":2.331768598891948,"average_loss":1.1997950920818032,"mean":-0.31690416933836535,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":1.8317884507514703,"average_loss":1.3423522094993736,"mean":-0.5488170444366627,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.1261999642837983,"average_loss":1.37413718149155,"mean":0.3760313913961241,"quarter_kelly":0.044214020049001934}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

ReconstructedSep1 183348170617 toSep8 183407913663 USD,+59,743,046. USDC+815,676,214 over sameproviderdates; combined+875,419,260. AggregateUSDT didnotshrink inthiswindow, so simpleone-for-oneUSDTsubstitutioncannot explainallUSDCgrowth; intraweek migrations andotherstablecoins/fiatbalances remainpossible. No attribution tobuying. https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_sensitivity_0.75_1.5_6","period":"extension","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":0.75,"target_adr":1.5,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":0.6275694260707176,"drawdown_pct":2.3067575288993614,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.630863537265406,"ci_high":0.9643593294088353,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.916945926707166,"average_loss":1.013322793220589,"mean":0.08552797675231913,"quarter_kelly":0.011154197878084485,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":1.134034202330264,"average_loss":0.6696721250770282,"mean":0.23218103862661793,"quarter_kelly":0.051184752221212104},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":2.5366371583005587,"average_loss":1.0019967355606563,"mean":-0.11733826209535253,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":2.03565604815108,"average_loss":1.1448392528269715,"mean":-0.34971542758245877,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.330656974565415,"average_loss":1.176687858444475,"mean":0.5769845580604699,"quarter_kelly":0.06189076345823662}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_trail_1_1.5_16","period":"extension","kind":"trail","stop_adr":1,"target_adr":1.5,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":-1.431028025537917,"drawdown_pct":3.413455468127091,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.9502703585282873,"ci_high":0.7572405664138453,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":34.375,"average_win":1.8710416723412893,"average_loss":1.2384146429215144,"mean":-0.16953903454992558,"quarter_kelly":0,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.2498481464440512,"average_loss":0.784443173558751,"mean":-0.021583928557700194,"quarter_kelly":0},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":2.331768598891948,"average_loss":1.253214732515212,"mean":-0.3569688996634221,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":1.8317884507514703,"average_loss":1.2770761050952337,"mean":-0.4998599661335576,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.1261999642837983,"average_loss":1.725686651973843,"mean":0.20025665615497762,"quarter_kelly":0.02354631026231266}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Global USDC Sep1 73,562,651,110;Sep7 74,706,432,903;Sep8 74,378,327,324;7d+815,676,214.126chains withmatchedSep1/Sep8rows sumdelta840,693,381,25,017,167 aboveglobaldelta. Topchanges USD:SOL+601551822,Hyperliquid+273620272,Starknet-140907410,Base-78871000,Arbitrum+77340118,Aptos+76068839,ETH+55364471. Chainselection/bridgedaccounting unreconciled; not netspotinflow. Provider reconstruction, no vintage timestamps; cannot combine withissuerSep7net. Localresearch/reconcile.json. https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_trail_1_1.5_6","period":"extension","kind":"trail","stop_adr":1,"target_adr":1.5,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":0.15876165032804312,"drawdown_pct":2.929215802266294,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.7519724526159964,"ci_high":0.9589569151827136,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":43.75,"average_win":1.645592253739538,"average_loss":1.225999489425076,"mean":0.030321898209442408,"quarter_kelly":0.004606532714974992,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":1.134034202330264,"average_loss":0.7768877806453689,"mean":0.1785732108424476,"quarter_kelly":0.03936680447457126},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.702658087043596,"average_loss":1.2735679756676865,"mean":-0.15748320215095563,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.3571841945466754,"average_loss":1.2953670559872021,"mean":-0.3006603370369981,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.330656974565415,"average_loss":1.5289411321988633,"mean":0.4008579211832758,"quarter_kelly":0.04299838259746713}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

ObservedSep9 04UTC. Static fb-count-target/formatNumber source numeric value74,470,791,659.782865762; footnote circulation last updatedSep8. Circletransparency remainsSep7 74.28bn; do not treat different cutoff/precision as contradiction or derive exactdailyissuance withoutmatched series. https://www.usdc.com/

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_managed_1_1.5_16","period":"extension","kind":"managed","stop_adr":1,"target_adr":1.5,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":-1.6592272917270723,"drawdown_pct":3.4095527583395735,"months":8,"ci_low":-1.0127839516658368,"ci_high":0.7565202540926772,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.7476288462014082,"average_loss":1.366462521514646,"mean":-0.1986782586211256,"quarter_kelly":0,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.2498481464440512,"average_loss":0.784443173558751,"mean":-0.021583928557700194,"quarter_kelly":0},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":2.331768598891948,"average_loss":1.5068986111149762,"mean":-0.5472318086132453,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.351221553388552,"average_loss":1.4925792575827868,"mean":-0.42615395346853463,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.1261999642837983,"average_loss":1.725686651973843,"mean":0.20025665615497762,"quarter_kelly":0.02354631026231266}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_managed_1_1.5_6","period":"extension","kind":"managed","stop_adr":1,"target_adr":1.5,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":-0.07311817405466492,"drawdown_pct":2.9252935261210866,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.8146111981861178,"ci_high":0.9582351607937505,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":40.625,"average_win":1.8149553989776603,"average_loss":1.2399179680423695,"mean":0.001124337309517734,"quarter_kelly":0.00015487120374294006,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":1.134034202330264,"average_loss":0.7768877806453689,"mean":0.1785732108424476,"quarter_kelly":0.03936680447457126},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":2.5366371583005587,"average_loss":1.3097150769153465,"mean":-0.3481270181113702,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.5541270541752508,"average_loss":1.2953670559872021,"mean":-0.22680676467628225,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.330656974565415,"average_loss":1.5289411321988633,"mean":0.4008579211832758,"quarter_kelly":0.04299838259746713}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Fresh retrieval stillSep7,same publication as02UTC. Billions: circulation74.28; issue/redeem7d8.8/7.86,30d36.59/34.37,365d333.52/331.64. Python: net7 .94,net30 2.22,net365 1.88; gross7 16.66,redemptions89.3182%ofissues,net5.64226%ofgross. Disjoint preceding23dnet1.28bn/55.6522mday vs latest7d134.2857mday; prior335dnet-.34bn/-1.01493mday. Consistentrollingdefinitions assumed; rounded inputs, rates descriptive not forecast. https://www.circle.com/transparency

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_open_0_0_16","period":"extension","kind":"open","stop_adr":0,"target_adr":0,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":3.27542903686322,"drawdown_pct":5.501486438678138,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.7466004120980675,"ci_high":1.5870726326168236,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":53.125,"average_win":1.860460927797573,"average_loss":1.21248620919768,"mean":0.42001695733104827,"quarter_kelly":0.05643990570501624,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":1.6519830998886098,"average_loss":0.562335459874604,"mean":0.8216136399774046,"quarter_kelly":0.12433747658084464},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":2.805348902746803,"average_loss":0.6111627605944814,"mean":0.6700291131585003,"quarter_kelly":0.05970996268079652},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":1.2462789462717483,"average_loss":1.8900794313831477,"mean":0.07014455465116226,"quarter_kelly":0.014070797484985242},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.1801197083791357,"average_loss":1.9435586653048842,"mean":0.11828052153712576,"quarter_kelly":0.013563535190581844}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_open_0_0_6","period":"extension","kind":"open","stop_adr":0,"target_adr":0,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":4.941127760960429,"drawdown_pct":5.312300083310362,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.5478947582391529,"ci_high":1.790450308090799,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":1.7728763957822988,"average_loss":1.298638837630329,"mean":0.6210581832525635,"quarter_kelly":0.08757776130502819,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":75,"average_win":1.5759897248507941,"average_loss":0.6341337190916674,"mean":1.0234588638651787,"quarter_kelly":0.16235176659576162},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":3.0111655715836445,"average_loss":0.4121859600825384,"mean":0.8715708642922801,"quarter_kelly":0.07236158586871562},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":75,"average_win":1.2136840241672275,"average_loss":2.5591107333168717,"mean":0.27048533479620274,"quarter_kelly":0.05571576485523011},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":1.9371977413573838,"average_loss":2.3787491154447267,"mean":0.31871767005659246,"quarter_kelly":0.04113127731519921}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_parent_0_0_16","period":"extension","kind":"parent","stop_adr":0,"target_adr":0,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":4.516781654157698,"drawdown_pct":6.5075834407737565,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.9980714053069936,"ci_high":2.1518071618774384,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":56.25,"average_win":2.337322246997562,"average_loss":1.668861088614285,"mean":0.5846170376673787,"quarter_kelly":0.06253064146571534,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":2.0033952274330646,"average_loss":0.9119199462525521,"mean":0.9101520373009584,"quarter_kelly":0.11357619615415693},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":3.54442517993383,"average_loss":1.1922942988148644,"mean":0.583975505715896,"quarter_kelly":0.041189718788675216},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":1.7420726996393032,"average_loss":1.7938596345431934,"mean":0.416098074320867,"quarter_kelly":0.05971307546565367},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":2.542237054158556,"average_loss":3.095081668046144,"mean":0.4282425333317935,"quarter_kelly":0.04211276566747389}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_parent_0_0_6","period":"extension","kind":"parent","stop_adr":0,"target_adr":0,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":6.202501785961134,"drawdown_pct":6.226778522811838,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.7998691972578967,"ci_high":2.3563154378583873,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":59.375,"average_win":2.4130042279867583,"average_loss":1.5919593029919767,"mean":0.7859877935266469,"quarter_kelly":0.08143249236890276,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":2.207606382201077,"average_loss":0.7135452626804557,"mean":1.1121745153705023,"quarter_kelly":0.125948009157957},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":3.7517214820680675,"average_loss":0.9944809256793197,"mean":0.7853449772259504,"quarter_kelly":0.05233230804709439},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":1.9457606857907273,"average_loss":1.597250597318282,"mean":0.6171314546248488,"quarter_kelly":0.07929179820668132},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":75,"average_win":2.304180090930863,"average_loss":4.395339365251444,"mean":0.6293002268852863,"quarter_kelly":0.06827810783564404}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"holdout_sensitivity_1.25_2_16","period":"holdout","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":1.25,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":-14.566838190328014,"drawdown_pct":19.42064762653911,"months":83,"ci_low":-0.522951998141174,"ci_high":0.15112344315253562,"ambiguous":0,"sample":332,"win_rate":43.97590361445783,"average_win":1.6071414379324775,"average_loss":1.5942711388249253,"mean":-0.1864210297689588,"quarter_kelly":0,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":83,"win_rate":43.373493975903614,"average_win":1.5975085737381995,"average_loss":1.4938014893909735,"mean":-0.15299230538313952,"quarter_kelly":0},"IWM":{"sample":83,"win_rate":38.55421686746988,"average_win":2.218266561226552,"average_loss":2.05523570850547,"mean":-0.4076203755967383,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":83,"win_rate":43.373493975903614,"average_win":1.1471735823771712,"average_loss":1.3494015473531553,"mean":-0.2665496838556642,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":83,"win_rate":50.602409638554214,"average_win":1.544037199017589,"average_loss":1.416752877089831,"mean":0.08147824575970672,"quarter_kelly":0.013192403300184105}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"holdout_sensitivity_1.25_2_6","period":"holdout","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":1.25,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":0.8601109657054851,"drawdown_pct":12.454323862131245,"months":83,"ci_low":-0.3237985993736309,"ci_high":0.3516263433161882,"ambiguous":0,"sample":332,"win_rate":47.28915662650602,"average_win":1.6914785678956041,"average_loss":1.4920646185194806,"mean":0.01340610517680951,"quarter_kelly":0.0019814181260197905,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":83,"win_rate":46.98795180722892,"average_win":1.6710837860566146,"average_loss":1.3927141380765564,"mean":0.04690175398601779,"quarter_kelly":0.007016667024323145},"IWM":{"sample":83,"win_rate":40.963855421686745,"average_win":2.284364592851543,"average_loss":1.9377957348129016,"mean":-0.20823608251662307,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":83,"win_rate":48.19277108433735,"average_win":1.2274569030191285,"average_loss":1.2709200549193536,"mean":-0.06688296675622966,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":83,"win_rate":53.01204819277109,"average_win":1.6732544369473703,"average_loss":1.2879572512352884,"mean":0.281841715994073,"quarter_kelly":0.042109811540116934}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"holdout_sensitivity_1_2_16","period":"holdout","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":1,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":-21.578799463749565,"drawdown_pct":25.810619362537047,"months":83,"ci_low":-0.6003223246390597,"ci_high":0.030982779352626957,"ambiguous":1,"sample":332,"win_rate":37.65060240963856,"average_win":1.6129705288192944,"average_loss":1.4384393572898688,"mean":-0.28956515318250287,"quarter_kelly":0,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":83,"win_rate":37.34939759036144,"average_win":1.6503543919315387,"average_loss":1.3478418968372698,"mean":-0.22803364440554624,"quarter_kelly":0},"IWM":{"sample":83,"win_rate":33.734939759036145,"average_win":2.1583703581496727,"average_loss":1.8742497608768651,"mean":-0.513847793012491,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":83,"win_rate":37.34939759036144,"average_win":1.1299910853410393,"average_loss":1.2373479677101697,"mean":-0.35316109247417593,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":83,"win_rate":42.168674698795186,"average_win":1.5713210365363162,"average_loss":1.2550695240480902,"mean":-0.06321808283779842,"quarter_kelly":0}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"holdout_sensitivity_1_2_6","period":"holdout","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":1,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":-7.418023392707795,"drawdown_pct":14.736809613191893,"months":83,"ci_low":-0.40132382153634744,"ci_high":0.23124515748625826,"ambiguous":1,"sample":332,"win_rate":40.36144578313253,"average_win":1.7016824041745686,"average_loss":1.3024596995942286,"mean":-0.0899445131333286,"quarter_kelly":0,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":83,"win_rate":40.963855421686745,"average_win":1.700271530385229,"average_loss":1.2276997333079334,"mean":-0.0282898180601319,"quarter_kelly":0},"IWM":{"sample":83,"win_rate":34.93975903614458,"average_win":2.2841141979182344,"average_loss":1.7103228453696562,"mean":-0.314676167594369,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":83,"win_rate":40.963855421686745,"average_win":1.224357590817719,"average_loss":1.109848635518917,"mean":-0.1536677717183673,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":83,"win_rate":44.57831325301205,"average_win":1.6851010891584635,"average_loss":1.1084721042865258,"mean":0.13685570483955375,"quarter_kelly":0.020303782621714894}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"holdout_sensitivity_0.75_2_16","period":"holdout","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":0.75,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":-23.340145260451884,"drawdown_pct":26.488265102686782,"months":83,"ci_low":-0.591728678140074,"ci_high":-0.0205221758988098,"ambiguous":1,"sample":332,"win_rate":31.626506024096386,"average_win":1.657800137863942,"average_loss":1.2279386598718285,"mean":-0.31528030516623834,"quarter_kelly":0,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":83,"win_rate":32.53012048192771,"average_win":1.7057322356830111,"average_loss":1.1407157602741096,"mean":-0.21476279773384144,"quarter_kelly":0},"IWM":{"sample":83,"win_rate":28.915662650602407,"average_win":2.1855418536231577,"average_loss":1.6055827363176673,"mean":-0.5093539392263446,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":83,"win_rate":30.120481927710845,"average_win":1.2033586367192273,"average_loss":1.0384791260829096,"mean":-0.3632267878894948,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":83,"win_rate":34.93975903614458,"average_win":1.5681818519771091,"average_loss":1.1092744900000697,"mean":-0.17377769581527233,"quarter_kelly":0}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"holdout_sensitivity_0.75_2_6","period":"holdout","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":0.75,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":-9.497421237073489,"drawdown_pct":14.706446682819829,"months":83,"ci_low":-0.3927129705269506,"ci_high":0.17963708913388426,"ambiguous":1,"sample":332,"win_rate":33.734939759036145,"average_win":1.7515945055667719,"average_loss":1.0663394791274807,"mean":-0.11571114694146789,"quarter_kelly":0,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":83,"win_rate":36.144578313253014,"average_win":1.7297330727585496,"average_loss":1.0025728611439133,"mean":-0.014992403106878549,"quarter_kelly":0},"IWM":{"sample":83,"win_rate":30.120481927710845,"average_win":2.297646642984093,"average_loss":1.4342336447184374,"mean":-0.3101733170971933,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":83,"win_rate":33.734939759036145,"average_win":1.2668320297464564,"average_loss":0.8920517669867145,"mean":-0.163753618691187,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":83,"win_rate":34.93975903614458,"average_win":1.7715217080420294,"average_loss":0.9112949109162908,"mean":0.02607475112938723,"quarter_kelly":0.0036797109246556187}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json