Notes

{"fund":"catalyst","split":"train","symbol":"IONS","bars":314,"returnPct":39.175422535202586,"buyAndHoldPct":102.48272331712309,"maxDrawdownPct":18.281471774313054,"winRate":37.5,"avgTradePct":1.5739425450652018,"N":24} Same suppliedCLIengine andmomentum20,stop5,target10; sourceinspection /app/agent/dist/backtest/engine.js proves nofees/slippage, fills atstop even if gapbelowstop, sameclosingbarsignal/entry. Not suitable tradingevidence. Train2024Oct–2025end, holdout2026Jan–Sep8with20barwarmupflat; buyholdincludeswarmup and is not alignedcomparator. Main costed eventtest separate. No live rule transport. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"fund":"catalyst","split":"holdout","symbol":"RARE","bars":191,"returnPct":1.8975920520518441,"buyAndHoldPct":-59.17695473251029,"maxDrawdownPct":22.621906250000023,"winRate":33.33333333333333,"avgTradePct":0.3544089355959463,"N":15} Same suppliedCLIengine andmomentum20,stop5,target10; sourceinspection /app/agent/dist/backtest/engine.js proves nofees/slippage, fills atstop even if gapbelowstop, sameclosingbarsignal/entry. Not suitable tradingevidence. Train2024Oct–2025end, holdout2026Jan–Sep8with20barwarmupflat; buyholdincludeswarmup and is not alignedcomparator. Main costed eventtest separate. No live rule transport. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"fund":"catalyst","split":"train","symbol":"RARE","bars":314,"returnPct":-14.570010024405322,"buyAndHoldPct":-59.299239072730494,"maxDrawdownPct":23.51399369607629,"winRate":23.809523809523807,"avgTradePct":-0.6025109472874232,"N":21} Same suppliedCLIengine andmomentum20,stop5,target10; sourceinspection /app/agent/dist/backtest/engine.js proves nofees/slippage, fills atstop even if gapbelowstop, sameclosingbarsignal/entry. Not suitable tradingevidence. Train2024Oct–2025end, holdout2026Jan–Sep8with20barwarmupflat; buyholdincludeswarmup and is not alignedcomparator. Main costed eventtest separate. No live rule transport. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"rule":"T10_T2","year":2026,"slippage":0.003,"N":2,"return_pct":3.264020427779446,"drawdown_pct":3.1391809797858605,"win_rate_pct":50,"avg_win_pct":9.583820034262192,"avg_loss_pct":3.0557791787033217,"mean_pct":3.2640204277794354,"ci95":[-3.0557791787033217,9.583820034262192],"inside":2,"exit_day_ambiguous":0} Equalinitialcapital event sleeves inclidlecash; sumportfolio value marked daily. Source eventobservations17320–47. N5training dominated3TLXevents, N2holdout is not adequate independentvalidation. Bootstrap50kseed20260909 resamples observedreturns only, not posterior uncertainty or tailbound. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"rule":"T10_T2","year":2026,"slippage":0.001,"N":2,"return_pct":3.677905521332936,"drawdown_pct":3.044835296980164,"win_rate_pct":50,"avg_win_pct":10.023035062100005,"avg_loss_pct":2.6672240194341112,"mean_pct":3.677905521332947,"ci95":[-2.6672240194341112,10.023035062100005],"inside":2,"exit_day_ambiguous":0} Equalinitialcapital event sleeves inclidlecash; sumportfolio value marked daily. Source eventobservations17320–47. N5training dominated3TLXevents, N2holdout is not adequate independentvalidation. Bootstrap50kseed20260909 resamples observedreturns only, not posterior uncertainty or tailbound. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"rule":"T10_T2","year":2025,"slippage":0.003,"N":5,"return_pct":6.112171852019843,"drawdown_pct":2.1126681861037278,"win_rate_pct":80,"avg_win_pct":8.486993783812723,"avg_loss_pct":3.387115875151736,"mean_pct":6.112171852019832,"ci95":[0.3972638733356759,12.829195755652885],"inside":0,"exit_day_ambiguous":1} Equalinitialcapital event sleeves inclidlecash; sumportfolio value marked daily. Source eventobservations17320–47. N5training dominated3TLXevents, N2holdout is not adequate independentvalidation. Bootstrap50kseed20260909 resamples observedreturns only, not posterior uncertainty or tailbound. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"rule":"T10_T2","year":2025,"slippage":0.001,"N":5,"return_pct":6.537472416458501,"drawdown_pct":2.072133225198769,"win_rate_pct":80,"avg_win_pct":8.921812701239578,"avg_loss_pct":2.999888722665911,"mean_pct":6.53747241645848,"ci95":[0.7996589261197484,13.281418340512976],"inside":0,"exit_day_ambiguous":1} Equalinitialcapital event sleeves inclidlecash; sumportfolio value marked daily. Source eventobservations17320–47. N5training dominated3TLXevents, N2holdout is not adequate independentvalidation. Bootstrap50kseed20260909 resamples observedreturns only, not posterior uncertainty or tailbound. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"rule":"T20_T6","year":2026,"slippage":0.003,"N":2,"return_pct":-2.2473906718738057,"drawdown_pct":4.929601298264319,"win_rate_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":2.247390671873811,"mean_pct":-2.247390671873811,"ci95":[-3.9863904512559833,-0.5083908924916392],"inside":0,"exit_day_ambiguous":0} Equalinitialcapital event sleeves inclidlecash; sumportfolio value marked daily. Source eventobservations17320–47. N5training dominated3TLXevents, N2holdout is not adequate independentvalidation. Bootstrap50kseed20260909 resamples observedreturns only, not posterior uncertainty or tailbound. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"rule":"T20_T6","year":2026,"slippage":0.001,"N":2,"return_pct":-1.8555954687694776,"drawdown_pct":4.639660087072195,"win_rate_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":1.8555954687694831,"mean_pct":-1.8555954687694831,"ci95":[-3.6015652080989558,-0.10962572944001048],"inside":0,"exit_day_ambiguous":0} Equalinitialcapital event sleeves inclidlecash; sumportfolio value marked daily. Source eventobservations17320–47. N5training dominated3TLXevents, N2holdout is not adequate independentvalidation. Bootstrap50kseed20260909 resamples observedreturns only, not posterior uncertainty or tailbound. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"rule":"T20_T6","year":2025,"slippage":0.003,"N":5,"return_pct":-8.873296220957162,"drawdown_pct":10.28521390053363,"win_rate_pct":20,"avg_win_pct":0.9600347847707358,"avg_loss_pct":11.331628972389149,"mean_pct":-8.873296220957172,"ci95":[-14.18908635999282,-2.887616822779162],"inside":0,"exit_day_ambiguous":0} Equalinitialcapital event sleeves inclidlecash; sumportfolio value marked daily. Source eventobservations17320–47. N5training dominated3TLXevents, N2holdout is not adequate independentvalidation. Bootstrap50kseed20260909 resamples observedreturns only, not posterior uncertainty or tailbound. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"rule":"T20_T6","year":2025,"slippage":0.001,"N":5,"return_pct":-8.508057833350623,"drawdown_pct":9.998850991777541,"win_rate_pct":20,"avg_win_pct":1.3646854391706098,"avg_loss_pct":10.976243651480925,"mean_pct":-8.508057833350618,"ci95":[-13.845153808532212,-2.4983876640653557],"inside":0,"exit_day_ambiguous":0} Equalinitialcapital event sleeves inclidlecash; sumportfolio value marked daily. Source eventobservations17320–47. N5training dominated3TLXevents, N2holdout is not adequate independentvalidation. Bootstrap50kseed20260909 resamples observedreturns only, not posterior uncertainty or tailbound. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

3closed operator-liquidated stocktrades, not comparablecalendar-ruleexits. SNOW-5.39236448%,DELL+7.93994131%,GTLB-5.13049905%;p33.3333%,averagewin7.93994131%,averageloss5.26143176%,mean-.86097407%,flooredquarterKelly0. Too few and differentmechanismtoestablishcalendarwinprobability. Open0,pending0,closing0 verified independently. Synchronousbenchmarkquotes absent, so ordertype/session slippage andstop/targethitfrequency cannotbeestimatedfromtheseoperatorliquidations. query_trades fund=quant all and separate status=open,pending,closing; measured2026-09-09~04:08UTC

{"n":100000,"seed":2026090904,"revenue_p5_p50_p95_m":[11.302940070463867,19.84551962660303,27.94096792544626],"operating_p5_p50_p95_m":[-17.026892017504206,-7.146588845992994,2.4155433807805906],"positive_operating_scenario_share_pct":11.452,"revenue_ge27_scenario_share_pct":7.465,"corr_utilization_operating":0.7936843966363394,"corr_uncontracted_Heprice_operating":0.2964856213419219,"corr_cost_operating":-0.5252389617286725}. 100000 numpy draws seed2026090904. Independenttriangularutilization(.25,.70,1);uncontracted85%Heprice(300,600,900),contracted15%600proxy;LNGprice(15,16.5,18);annualoperatingcostm(20,25.808,35). Scenario share NOT calibratedprofitprobability orstockwinprobability. Modelignoresjointendogeneity,gaps,capex,taxes,interest,NCI; cannotjustifyKelly. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm

{"assumed_hazard":0.1,"assumed_other_return":0.015,"shock_loss":0.45860061919504647,"paths":50000,"events":10,"terminal_percentiles":[8.654673967411684,30.41916489761206,57.028976141735804],"loss_frequency":0.64868,"dd95":0.8315707816376913,"expected_per_event_pct":-3.236006191950465} NumPyseed20260909. NON-SHOCK1.5%win and hazard0/1/5/10% explicitly assumed, not historical fit. Shock45.8600619% fromclosedRAREtrade. Full49.14reinvestedperhypotheticalevent; noactualcapital. runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst

{"assumed_hazard":0.05,"assumed_other_return":0.015,"shock_loss":0.45860061919504647,"paths":50000,"events":10,"terminal_percentiles":[16.225534029725072,57.028976141735804,57.028976141735804],"loss_frequency":0.40296,"dd95":0.6980273612877876,"expected_per_event_pct":-0.8680030959752325} NumPyseed20260909. NON-SHOCK1.5%win and hazard0/1/5/10% explicitly assumed, not historical fit. Shock45.8600619% fromclosedRAREtrade. Full49.14reinvestedperhypotheticalevent; noactualcapital. runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst

{"assumed_hazard":0.01,"assumed_other_return":0.015,"shock_loss":0.45860061919504647,"paths":50000,"events":10,"terminal_percentiles":[30.41916489761206,57.028976141735804,57.028976141735804],"loss_frequency":0.09472,"dd95":0.45860061919504647,"expected_per_event_pct":1.0263993808049532} NumPyseed20260909. NON-SHOCK1.5%win and hazard0/1/5/10% explicitly assumed, not historical fit. Shock45.8600619% fromclosedRAREtrade. Full49.14reinvestedperhypotheticalevent; noactualcapital. runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst

{"assumed_hazard":0,"assumed_other_return":0.015,"shock_loss":0.45860061919504647,"paths":50000,"events":10,"terminal_percentiles":[57.028976141735804,57.028976141735804,57.028976141735804],"loss_frequency":0,"dd95":0,"expected_per_event_pct":1.5} NumPyseed20260909. NON-SHOCK1.5%win and hazard0/1/5/10% explicitly assumed, not historical fit. Shock45.8600619% fromclosedRAREtrade. Full49.14reinvestedperhypotheticalevent; noactualcapital. runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst

{"symbol":"RARE","day":"2026-09-02","news":"2026-09-02T20:01:36Z","bars":95,"last_complete_bar":"2026-09-02T19:45:00Z","preclose":26.55,"next_bar":"2026-09-02T20:15:00Z","next_open":14.9915,"first_post_bar_change_pct":-43.53483992467043,"next_regular_open_time":"2026-09-03T13:30:00Z","next_regular_open":13.97,"overnight_from_preclose_pct":-47.38229755178908,"first_post_h":15.06,"first_post_l":13.8} Price windows aligned to sponsorHTMLmetadata, not causal attribution or guaranteed fills. Lastcompleteprebar excludes barstraddlingnews; nextbaropen is first recorded trade in that15minbar, not bid/ask or executablelimit. Some bars absent in extendedsession; nofill inferred. All measured2026-09-09. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=RARE&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"RARE","day":"2026-08-19","news":"2026-08-19T21:22:01Z","bars":94,"last_complete_bar":"2026-08-19T21:00:00Z","preclose":26.76,"next_bar":"2026-08-19T21:30:00Z","next_open":27,"first_post_bar_change_pct":0.8968609865470878,"next_regular_open_time":"2026-08-20T13:30:00Z","next_regular_open":28.45,"overnight_from_preclose_pct":6.3153961136023895,"first_post_h":28.8513,"first_post_l":27} Price windows aligned to sponsorHTMLmetadata, not causal attribution or guaranteed fills. Lastcompleteprebar excludes barstraddlingnews; nextbaropen is first recorded trade in that15minbar, not bid/ask or executablelimit. Some bars absent in extendedsession; nofill inferred. All measured2026-09-09. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=RARE&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"IONS","day":"2026-06-24","news":"2026-06-24T18:37:29Z","bars":65,"last_complete_bar":"2026-06-24T18:15:00Z","preclose":76.995,"next_bar":"2026-06-24T18:45:00Z","next_open":77.15,"first_post_bar_change_pct":0.20131177349178575,"next_regular_open_time":"2026-06-25T13:30:00Z","next_regular_open":76.69,"overnight_from_preclose_pct":-0.39612961880642894,"first_post_h":77.26,"first_post_l":76.88} Price windows aligned to sponsorHTMLmetadata, not causal attribution or guaranteed fills. Lastcompleteprebar excludes barstraddlingnews; nextbaropen is first recorded trade in that15minbar, not bid/ask or executablelimit. Some bars absent in extendedsession; nofill inferred. All measured2026-09-09. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IONS&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all

OLS y=next7dayclose return; Monday observations,USDC/USDT prior7daygrowth lag1day,ownprior7dayclose return. Nonoverlapping outcomes withinwindows. Coefficients intercept,USDC,USDT,prior; HC3heteroskedastic SE,not serial-correlation corrected. [{"symbol":"SOL","window":"development","n":51,"beta":[-0.00611482844318441,-0.3300502627666915,0.7170602391391943,-0.16970178777092157],"HC3_se":[0.029167872390723444,0.6845191678879095,3.4607628544652624,0.1425089673072327],"usdc_ci95":[-1.7071252052313861,1.0470246796980032],"r2":0.03773147801814003,"usdc_y_corr":-0.0897219700005269,"prior_usdc_corr":0.15414511604406744},{"symbol":"SOL","window":"holdout","n":35,"beta":[-0.00262719648590554,1.299756622061966,0.308639449512064,-0.08143896392481204],"HC3_se":[0.01669281928957473,1.0770123337008886,2.5891978226450254,0.14857096196770328],"usdc_ci95":[-0.8968245144557716,3.4963377585797035],"r2":0.057624095256226915,"usdc_y_corr":0.2271085100997632,"prior_usdc_corr":0.23365921047178245,"frozen_predictive_corr":-0.055855331696941735,"frozen_mse":0.009716143764979665,"zero_forecast_mse":0.0091902403968075}] https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

OLS y=next7dayclose return; Monday observations,USDC/USDT prior7daygrowth lag1day,ownprior7dayclose return. Nonoverlapping outcomes withinwindows. Coefficients intercept,USDC,USDT,prior; HC3heteroskedastic SE,not serial-correlation corrected. [{"symbol":"ETH","window":"development","n":51,"beta":[-0.01958809028395293,-0.5381954082563941,4.463685032327928,0.06803258120446076],"HC3_se":[0.0201003348258576,0.6133313507662133,3.299626505800723,0.1295973032845246],"usdc_ci95":[-1.772058934933387,0.6956681184205987],"r2":0.07912951222423315,"usdc_y_corr":-0.10222991526435132,"prior_usdc_corr":0.03378930328931067},{"symbol":"ETH","window":"holdout","n":35,"beta":[-0.002268027773152274,1.0177186280696657,0.904474307096202,-0.058493507659819165],"HC3_se":[0.01667829404574369,1.4702453042588886,2.3810107949666635,0.1491524746707091],"usdc_ci95":[-1.9808664394675157,4.016303695606847],"r2":0.03647913127339408,"usdc_y_corr":0.180560278995183,"prior_usdc_corr":0.386971018318211,"frozen_predictive_corr":-0.027972230136303004,"frozen_mse":0.009438473581974905,"zero_forecast_mse":0.008318990493684546}] https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

OLS y=next7dayclose return; Monday observations,USDC/USDT prior7daygrowth lag1day,ownprior7dayclose return. Nonoverlapping outcomes withinwindows. Coefficients intercept,USDC,USDT,prior; HC3heteroskedastic SE,not serial-correlation corrected. [{"symbol":"BTC","window":"development","n":51,"beta":[-0.0069679255649645775,-0.16097693134808475,1.2084609383025249,-0.07263593198504811],"HC3_se":[0.013273274196253933,0.2798285470617676,1.5754537541435267,0.14604837789676384],"usdc_ci95":[-0.723919356370379,0.4019654936742094],"r2":0.027131560045334124,"usdc_y_corr":-0.07565142213086788,"prior_usdc_corr":0.17671107823629673},{"symbol":"BTC","window":"holdout","n":35,"beta":[-0.0014636990479258798,0.7468017073738606,1.7736213859972918,-0.06398934356186571],"HC3_se":[0.011430114360679564,0.7412089292120739,1.524275094712161,0.12255717698144836],"usdc_ci95":[-0.7649038703432476,2.258507285090969],"r2":0.052070948409468465,"usdc_y_corr":0.19105322920729378,"prior_usdc_corr":0.2984188534485893,"frozen_predictive_corr":-0.015463319319623647,"frozen_mse":0.004334370295236753,"zero_forecast_mse":0.004253564656606122}] https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Sep9derived data: {"benchmarks":[{"kind":"buyhold","cost_bps":6,"return_pct":120.50791426083363,"drawdown_pct":35.3637031416764,"sample":4,"win_rate":100,"mean":120.50791426083363},{"kind":"buyhold","cost_bps":16,"return_pct":120.0673386774636,"drawdown_pct":35.36370314167642,"sample":4,"win_rate":100,"mean":120.0673386774636},{"kind":"midmonth","cost_bps":6,"return_pct":-10.354535586319958,"drawdown_pct":28.689973058076234,"sample":336,"win_rate":54.46428571428571,"mean":-0.0942798679537779},{"kind":"midmonth","cost_bps":16,"return_pct":-24.217876688176077,"drawdown_pct":33.110842849459566,"sample":336,"win_rate":49.107142857142854,"mean":-0.2938918459488698}],"simulation":{"paths":20000,"horizon_months":12,"quant_cash":245.69,"profit_quantiles":[-24.87984970234586,-3.899160609925502,19.271927452342627],"prob_loss":0.63785,"prob_profit349":0,"one_window_profit_quantiles":[-4.6819331896202065,-1.0846015007389609,6.390002590007586],"one_window_mean":-0.3118854598566707,"cross_asset_correlation":{"EEM":{"EEM":1,"EFA":0.60831,"IWM":0.52669,"SPY":0.54492},"EFA":{"EEM":0.60831,"EFA":1,"IWM":0.6127,"SPY":0.67855},"IWM":{"EEM":0.52669,"EFA":0.6127,"IWM":1,"SPY":0.80692},"SPY":{"EEM":0.54492,"EFA":0.67855,"IWM":0.80692,"SPY":1}},"postT1":{"n":76,"months":19,"mean":-0.15697223217397907,"win_rate":42.10526315789473},"exit_counts":{"stop":139,"target":60,"time":53,"target_gap":46,"stop_gap":34},"worst_trade_pct":-6.75242744962471}} Simulation20000paths,12monthlywindows sampledwithreplacement jointlyacrossassets from83holdoutmonths, preservescontemporaneouscorrelation butassumesstationarity andindependentmonths. Hypotheticalfull245.69 deployment/fractionals, notapprovedvenuefeasibleallocation. Fixedcosts excluded. No349USDhit in finitebootstrap isnottruezeroprobability. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; finish_stats.py

{"symbol":"RARE","drug":"DTX401","year":2026,"rule":"T10_T2","slippage":0.003,"fee":0.001,"entry":"2026-08-10","exit":"2026-08-20","entry_open":25.91,"exit_close":25.32,"net_return_pct":-3.0557791787033217,"event_dd_pct":6.458471958456958,"news_exposure":"inside","news":"2026-08-19","target":"2026-08-23","spy_return_pct":-1.2943308309603885} Primary goal/firstnews paired in observations17167–17188 corrected note1347; equal standalone event cash basis, nominal-target exits may cross early news. vectorbt result independently matched closed-form price/cost calculation. Not realized trade or calibrated execution. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all