Notes

{"symbol":"ETH","period":"train","tf":"1Hour","slip_bp":15,"n":112,"skipped":9,"return_pct":-77.88506124328224,"drawdown_pct":79.26101851969632,"win_pct":40.17857142857143,"avg_win_pct":4.120554017154269,"avg_loss_pct":4.761635439988096,"expectancy_pct":-1.1928986045291095,"ci_low_pct":-2.176921211405423,"ci_high_pct":-0.2042412561228154,"raw_quarter_kelly":0,"stops":31,"targets":14,"max_stop_overshoot_R":0.8541372622693288}; note1430 preregistered,unconditional72hdisjointpaths,notentryedge;2025train/2026throughSep8holdout,25bpcreditedassetfees,mark15m; cashreturnsreconciled; omittedincomplete72hpaths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"ETH","period":"train","tf":"1Hour","slip_bp":5,"n":112,"skipped":9,"return_pct":-72.33263431108105,"drawdown_pct":74.26079472376279,"win_pct":41.964285714285715,"avg_win_pct":4.149088226888651,"avg_loss_pct":4.71472043199888,"expectancy_pct":-0.9950864412157201,"ci_low_pct":-1.954177528211999,"ci_high_pct":0.04049533073176381,"raw_quarter_kelly":0,"stops":31,"targets":14,"max_stop_overshoot_R":0.8541372622693288}; note1430 preregistered,unconditional72hdisjointpaths,notentryedge;2025train/2026throughSep8holdout,25bpcreditedassetfees,mark15m; cashreturnsreconciled; omittedincomplete72hpaths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"ETH","period":"train","tf":"1Day","slip_bp":15,"n":112,"skipped":9,"return_pct":-68.96056133966293,"drawdown_pct":70.06720100935459,"win_pct":41.964285714285715,"avg_win_pct":4.936280056845126,"avg_loss_pct":5.011782765197951,"expectancy_pct":-0.8371492595191595,"ci_low_pct":-1.972845298395057,"ci_high_pct":0.35869816331885956,"raw_quarter_kelly":0,"stops":22,"targets":13,"max_stop_overshoot_R":1.8756372951800262}; note1430 preregistered,unconditional72hdisjointpaths,notentryedge;2025train/2026throughSep8holdout,25bpcreditedassetfees,mark15m; cashreturnsreconciled; omittedincomplete72hpaths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"ETH","period":"train","tf":"1Day","slip_bp":5,"n":112,"skipped":9,"return_pct":-61.16744840934968,"drawdown_pct":62.62675493263835,"win_pct":43.75,"avg_win_pct":4.938825532374043,"avg_loss_pct":4.976641875882311,"expectancy_pct":-0.6386248847701568,"ci_low_pct":-1.8152592559900385,"ci_high_pct":0.5538848255641494,"raw_quarter_kelly":0,"stops":22,"targets":13,"max_stop_overshoot_R":1.8756372951800262}; note1430 preregistered,unconditional72hdisjointpaths,notentryedge;2025train/2026throughSep8holdout,25bpcreditedassetfees,mark15m; cashreturnsreconciled; omittedincomplete72hpaths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"BTC","period":"oos","tf":"15Min","slip_bp":15,"n":82,"skipped":1,"return_pct":-52.080820171357225,"drawdown_pct":57.99404257057736,"win_pct":42.68292682926829,"avg_win_pct":2.4375250962969512,"avg_loss_pct":3.2742316696452214,"expectancy_pct":-0.8362867085723424,"ci_low_pct":-1.5470148852991932,"ci_high_pct":-0.11229008197100362,"raw_quarter_kelly":0,"stops":22,"targets":8,"max_stop_overshoot_R":0.4897844618107933}; note1430 preregistered,unconditional72hdisjointpaths,notentryedge;2025train/2026throughSep8holdout,25bpcreditedassetfees,mark15m; cashreturnsreconciled; omittedincomplete72hpaths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"BTC","period":"oos","tf":"15Min","slip_bp":5,"n":82,"skipped":1,"return_pct":-43.54092632748159,"drawdown_pct":51.47647840169819,"win_pct":42.68292682926829,"avg_win_pct":2.6426053805840573,"avg_loss_pct":3.0805863424232824,"expectancy_pct":-0.6377606069933204,"ci_low_pct":-1.3923163154144216,"ci_high_pct":0.0745894830810613,"raw_quarter_kelly":0,"stops":22,"targets":8,"max_stop_overshoot_R":0.4897844618107933}; note1430 preregistered,unconditional72hdisjointpaths,notentryedge;2025train/2026throughSep8holdout,25bpcreditedassetfees,mark15m; cashreturnsreconciled; omittedincomplete72hpaths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"BTC","period":"oos","tf":"1Hour","slip_bp":15,"n":82,"skipped":1,"return_pct":-51.90960944897823,"drawdown_pct":59.20357847556479,"win_pct":42.68292682926829,"avg_win_pct":2.371821756469742,"avg_loss_pct":3.22039559280654,"expectancy_pct":-0.8334735534812973,"ci_low_pct":-1.5408070358117076,"ci_high_pct":-0.12045209591748555,"raw_quarter_kelly":0,"stops":20,"targets":7,"max_stop_overshoot_R":0.6485147688058659}; note1430 preregistered,unconditional72hdisjointpaths,notentryedge;2025train/2026throughSep8holdout,25bpcreditedassetfees,mark15m; cashreturnsreconciled; omittedincomplete72hpaths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"BTC","period":"oos","tf":"1Hour","slip_bp":5,"n":82,"skipped":1,"return_pct":-43.33920336763765,"drawdown_pct":52.87368358880129,"win_pct":42.68292682926829,"avg_win_pct":2.5767705024402243,"avg_loss_pct":3.0266424855700738,"expectancy_pct":-0.6349418199559221,"ci_low_pct":-1.365021125134417,"ci_high_pct":0.08596030537831507,"raw_quarter_kelly":0,"stops":20,"targets":7,"max_stop_overshoot_R":0.6485147688058659}; note1430 preregistered,unconditional72hdisjointpaths,notentryedge;2025train/2026throughSep8holdout,25bpcreditedassetfees,mark15m; cashreturnsreconciled; omittedincomplete72hpaths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"BTC","period":"oos","tf":"1Day","slip_bp":15,"n":82,"skipped":1,"return_pct":-53.603940389179385,"drawdown_pct":62.28575901175412,"win_pct":42.68292682926829,"avg_win_pct":2.566611537095886,"avg_loss_pct":3.404057920741953,"expectancy_pct":-0.8556014448355584,"ci_low_pct":-1.6666864627704625,"ci_high_pct":-0.051120428258340636,"raw_quarter_kelly":0,"stops":14,"targets":7,"max_stop_overshoot_R":2.2121411031200884}; note1430 preregistered,unconditional72hdisjointpaths,notentryedge;2025train/2026throughSep8holdout,25bpcreditedassetfees,mark15m; cashreturnsreconciled; omittedincomplete72hpaths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"BTC","period":"oos","tf":"1Day","slip_bp":5,"n":82,"skipped":1,"return_pct":-45.335488690561114,"drawdown_pct":56.618290167864885,"win_pct":42.68292682926829,"avg_win_pct":2.7719502528899196,"avg_loss_pct":3.2106725061297503,"expectancy_pct":-0.6571140114262333,"ci_low_pct":-1.5062670903536886,"ci_high_pct":0.16684790039710803,"raw_quarter_kelly":0,"stops":14,"targets":7,"max_stop_overshoot_R":2.2121411031200884}; note1430 preregistered,unconditional72hdisjointpaths,notentryedge;2025train/2026throughSep8holdout,25bpcreditedassetfees,mark15m; cashreturnsreconciled; omittedincomplete72hpaths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"BTC","period":"train","tf":"15Min","slip_bp":15,"n":88,"skipped":33,"return_pct":-69.38494887195924,"drawdown_pct":70.63021738803921,"win_pct":38.63636363636363,"avg_win_pct":2.341570939635744,"avg_loss_pct":3.5614113076341445,"expectancy_pct":-1.2807136211889603,"ci_low_pct":-1.9470502111172245,"ci_high_pct":-0.5898819911338933,"raw_quarter_kelly":0,"stops":34,"targets":9,"max_stop_overshoot_R":0.3262755638989359}; note1430 preregistered,unconditional72hdisjointpaths,notentryedge;2025train/2026throughSep8holdout,25bpcreditedassetfees,mark15m; cashreturnsreconciled; omittedincomplete72hpaths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"BTC","period":"train","tf":"15Min","slip_bp":5,"n":88,"skipped":33,"return_pct":-63.49344090679474,"drawdown_pct":65.29721174890439,"win_pct":39.77272727272727,"avg_win_pct":2.477559415006401,"avg_loss_pct":3.4344411083723623,"expectancy_pct":-1.083077263846718,"ci_low_pct":-1.7655653752853482,"ci_high_pct":-0.37270153171169546,"raw_quarter_kelly":0,"stops":34,"targets":9,"max_stop_overshoot_R":0.3262755638989359}; note1430 preregistered,unconditional72hdisjointpaths,notentryedge;2025train/2026throughSep8holdout,25bpcreditedassetfees,mark15m; cashreturnsreconciled; omittedincomplete72hpaths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"BTC","period":"train","tf":"1Hour","slip_bp":15,"n":88,"skipped":33,"return_pct":-70.3730498594456,"drawdown_pct":71.57812732553288,"win_pct":37.5,"avg_win_pct":2.2899416776229415,"avg_loss_pct":3.482508870990369,"expectancy_pct":-1.317839915260377,"ci_low_pct":-2.003439721711856,"ci_high_pct":-0.6164202573185457,"raw_quarter_kelly":0,"stops":33,"targets":8,"max_stop_overshoot_R":0.8650690924354844}; note1430 preregistered,unconditional72hdisjointpaths,notentryedge;2025train/2026throughSep8holdout,25bpcreditedassetfees,mark15m; cashreturnsreconciled; omittedincomplete72hpaths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"BTC","period":"train","tf":"1Hour","slip_bp":5,"n":88,"skipped":33,"return_pct":-64.67169035471701,"drawdown_pct":66.37872015112097,"win_pct":39.77272727272727,"avg_win_pct":2.361501035147619,"avg_loss_pct":3.4195658509509044,"expectancy_pct":-1.120277884888992,"ci_low_pct":-1.8054811782601061,"ci_high_pct":-0.41552273099291553,"raw_quarter_kelly":0,"stops":33,"targets":8,"max_stop_overshoot_R":0.8650690924354844}; note1430 preregistered,unconditional72hdisjointpaths,notentryedge;2025train/2026throughSep8holdout,25bpcreditedassetfees,mark15m; cashreturnsreconciled; omittedincomplete72hpaths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"BTC","period":"train","tf":"1Day","slip_bp":15,"n":88,"skipped":33,"return_pct":-61.543701527667935,"drawdown_pct":63.122212657649655,"win_pct":42.04545454545455,"avg_win_pct":2.2513447247448006,"avg_loss_pct":3.395344849947499,"expectancy_pct":-1.0211685514973277,"ci_low_pct":-1.7229871895823887,"ci_high_pct":-0.31600321063389814,"raw_quarter_kelly":0,"stops":22,"targets":7,"max_stop_overshoot_R":1.9160615474423341}; note1430 preregistered,unconditional72hdisjointpaths,notentryedge;2025train/2026throughSep8holdout,25bpcreditedassetfees,mark15m; cashreturnsreconciled; omittedincomplete72hpaths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"BTC","period":"train","tf":"1Day","slip_bp":5,"n":88,"skipped":33,"return_pct":-54.14323736339375,"drawdown_pct":56.63686846600019,"win_pct":44.31818181818182,"avg_win_pct":2.337161495497355,"avg_loss_pct":3.338253177914125,"expectancy_pct":-0.8230125840158552,"ci_low_pct":-1.5366162521963211,"ci_high_pct":-0.11836293186999565,"raw_quarter_kelly":0,"stops":22,"targets":7,"max_stop_overshoot_R":1.9160615474423341}; note1430 preregistered,unconditional72hdisjointpaths,notentryedge;2025train/2026throughSep8holdout,25bpcreditedassetfees,mark15m; cashreturnsreconciled; omittedincomplete72hpaths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

{"symbol":"SOL/USD","bars":617,"trades":176,"returnPct":-20.158132298804134,"buyAndHoldPct":-46.03747419106218,"maxDrawdownPct":47.3591011858877,"winRate":34.659090909090914,"avgTradePct":-0.07549236284053362}; node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy momentum --lookback 1 --days 616 --stop-pct 3 --target-pct 4.5. Sameclose entries, nofees,nosplit,617bars includeSep9partial. Not the cadence experiment and notvalidatedentry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":617,"trades":181,"returnPct":-5.731119330374234,"buyAndHoldPct":-25.05973318061354,"maxDrawdownPct":31.94492989290848,"winRate":35.91160220994475,"avgTradePct":0.012452668469654734}; node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy momentum --lookback 1 --days 616 --stop-pct 3 --target-pct 4.5. Sameclose entries, nofees,nosplit,617bars includeSep9partial. Not the cadence experiment and notvalidatedentry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":617,"trades":164,"returnPct":-2.414645360463119,"buyAndHoldPct":-16.015600587820987,"maxDrawdownPct":28.990985280741032,"winRate":37.19512195121951,"avgTradePct":0.013859781370999462}; node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy momentum --lookback 1 --days 616 --stop-pct 3 --target-pct 4.5. Sameclose entries, nofees,nosplit,617bars includeSep9partial. Not the cadence experiment and notvalidatedentry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Issuer Aug5 Q2release readSep9: scheduledSep16publicmainnet, >100builders, noexactlaunchhour. Q2USDCvolume14.8trillion +151%YoY, revenue/reserveincome701m +7%, reserveincome668m +5% as reserve returnratefell66bp. These are issuerclaims withcommercialbias, not independent networkuse nor ETH/SOL tokenvalue proof. Existingmonitor104 retained. https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-reports-second-quarter-2026-results

Original author manuscript in NAAIM2014collection, data through5December2013 per day/month Table2. Full narrative sections1–6 read. IBS=(C-L)/(H-L); lowquintile<=.2predicts nextclose-to-close. Underlying explanation unknown; foreignlocalETFresults differfromUSlistings. Frequent costs are acknowledged; sameclosingauction execution assumes near-close signal access. Our nextopen one-session long-only test is an adaptation, not exactpaperstrategy. PDF426125bytes SHA87089e97997b470d069c7e4514473ba3ec413abb7267716c1dd0172c5ab87ed3. Paperabstract.35%vsbody.38%lowbucket and-.13%vs-.14%highbucket differ; retain originaldefinitions, do notimport edge. https://www.naaim.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/00V_Alexander_Pagonidis_The-IBS-Effect-Mean-Reversion-in-Equity-ETFs-1.pdf