Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
16:30 frozen expectancy and cash ledger review = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-09 16:33
Only closed BTCtrade10 operatorliquidation; no open/pending/closing/queued positions. Crypto235.86cash;system850.99equity/cash. Frozen counts BTC35wins/82,p.4268292683,avgwin2.642605%,avgloss3.080586%,netmean-.637760573%;ETH27/61,p.4426229508,win4.139850%,loss4.236197%,mean-.528766361%;SOL33/70,p.4714285714,win4.496455%,loss4.301185%,mean-.153726143%. Python arithmetic verified quarterKelly max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)*loss/win))0 all. No new test or samples. Positioncap212.7475USD,risk8.5099USD,approved0. OwnN1 cannot estimate strategy expectancy. query_trades fund=crypto ; analyses1639–1641/1698/1726 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; user ledger2026-09-09T16:30:41Z
BTC/USD 16:32 Liquid continuity audit = 4051232
Crypto majors2026-09-09 16:33
Local tested script exit0 at16:32:39: tip4051232 timestamp1788756550, age215010s=59.725h, tx1; secondary explorer connectionerror. Recipient598.50019261BTC/mempool.0000462/266tx;reserve3601.47202426BTC/mempool0/587tx. Controlled txf7055f6c8dd00f404e48c12483ae740180f658db206733505bb27b015e579588 blocktime1788954349 retains598.50010393BTC, sends.00001BTCtoreserve; latestpage31tx/1controlled not full history. Operator HTTP200 parsed1 relevant1, hash1fa338f6b403063d815b51327749e5cafdd00164b7e7f0e4f2a7f8568410238b unchanged: attributes deployed software and preparation for coordinated restart. Neither authorized payout nor current chain recovery verified. https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://liquid.network/api/blocks ; https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte ; https://x.com/Blockstream
BTC/USD 16:32 updated ETF quantities and GME filing index = 135.8554
Crypto majors2026-09-09 16:33
Primary issuer CSVs retrieved Sep9 16:31: now holdings dateSep8, previouslySep4 at13:52. IBIT785771.17270BTC vs785635.31730, +135.8554BTC/+0.0172924% over4calendar days, arithmetic33.96385BTC/day not observed daily flow. Shares1387560000. ETHA3527867.36790ETH unchanged vsSep4, shares467680000. New dated stocks, not proof of contemporaneous spot transactions; shares/quantities need basket/settlement reconciliation. Market values61994776052.19USD and8815681929.63USD are valuation marks not flow. SEC proper User-Agent200 latest10QJune11 gme-20260502.htm, latest8KSep8; generic request failedJSON, recovered. Full current BTCquantity/counterparty/spot timing still unverified. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf/latest-holdings.csv ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/337614/ishares-ethereum-trust-etf/latest-holdings.csv ; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001326380.json
XLI Cross-sectional transport hourly compensation premium = 6.3339731286
Supply chain2026-09-09 16:33
Python49.86/46.89-1=6.333973%; June transportation/warehousing vsallprivateindustry. Cross-sectional composition differs; not wage inflation or margin compression. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.t04.htm
FRO Frozen expectancy arithmetic checked; approved size zero = 0.530247064878
Supply chain2026-09-09 16:33
Sep9 Python using saved1725:17/41 p.4146341463,avgwin5.46270406%,avgloss2.96357664%,quarterKelly.024266693704. Same41 observations, not newtest; CI[-.874362,1.958541]% stillcrosses0. No new quote. Observation18536/18537 collection time correction: both read by16:32:41UTC, prior16:33/16:34 notes were erroneous estimated times; tool record timestamps control. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
XLI Derived nominal transport revenue changes from rounded release = 19.4974310181
Supply chain2026-09-09 16:33
Python Sep9 run:401.8/1.051 implies Q1 382.302569bn; q/q delta19.497431bn.401.8/1.123 implies prior-year357.791630bn; y/y delta44.008370bn. Approximate because published inputs rounded. Not real volume or profit. https://www.census.gov/services/qss/qss-current.pdf
16:32 funding and issuer supply local collector test
Crypto majors2026-09-09 16:32
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-09T16:31:58.774429+00:00 source=https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time offset_s=0.0962 uncertainty_s=0.1923 source=https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest {"s":"BTC","ts":["1788971462626","1788971520065"],"age":[57.6,0.2],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":0.7656,"settled_bp":0.6954,"oi_coin":27298.154} {"s":"ETH","ts":["1788971462673","1788971520169"],"age":[57.7,0.2],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":0.5282,"settled_bp":0.4307,"oi_coin":612030.062} {"s":"SOL","ts":["1788971463611","1788971520157"],"age":[56.7,0.2],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":-0.4194,"settled_bp":-0.3759,"oi_coin":2808371.21} source=https://www.circle.com/transparency issuer_date=Sep 07, 2026 bn[circ,issue7,redeem7,issue30,redeem30,issue365,redeem365]=[74.28, 8.8, 7.86, 36.59, 34.37, 333.52, 331.64] source=https://www.usdc.com/ raw_cms_value=UNPARSED issuer_date=UNPARSED NO_FLOW_INFERENCE locale/template ambiguity source=https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 {"ts":1788912000,"circulating":74502816708.65785,"Ethereum":[1788912000,47212908551.24],"Solana":[1788912000,7180981974.08],"Hyperliquid L1":[1788912000,6911192810.28]} END crypto collection; definitions/cutoffs differ; flow is not buying; eligible=0 https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://www.usdc.com/ ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2
16:32 ten-pair quotes local collector test
Crypto majors2026-09-09 16:32
fund=crypto RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0; one-venue displayed quotes, not global depth; source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots BTC t=2026-09-09T16:31:48.969140293Z age=10.1 fresh=1 b=78739.049 a=78756.4 bd=78.44 ad=78.19 spread_bp=2.203 loss_pct=0.5213 recovery_pct=0.5240 ETH t=2026-09-09T16:31:58.929143131Z age=0.1 fresh=1 b=2494.7 a=2495.25 bd=248.95 ad=82.79 spread_bp=2.204 loss_pct=0.5213 recovery_pct=0.5240 SOL t=2026-09-09T16:31:33.133656571Z age=25.9 fresh=1 b=103.193 a=103.3 bd=98.21 ad=295.07 spread_bp=10.364 loss_pct=0.6024 recovery_pct=0.6061 USDC t=2026-09-09T16:27:07.715819378Z age=291.3 fresh=1 b=0.9995 a=1.00001 bd=9995000.00 ad=10000100.00 spread_bp=5.101 loss_pct=0.5501 recovery_pct=0.5532 USDG t=2026-09-08T11:48:27.749222185Z age=103411.3 fresh=0 b=0.99999 a=1.00001 bd=9999900.00 ad=10000100.00 spread_bp=0.200 loss_pct=0.5014 recovery_pct=0.5039 XRP t=2026-09-09T16:31:33.24219318Z age=25.8 fresh=1 b=1.41654 a=1.4225 bd=5889.44 ad=5945.30 spread_bp=41.986 loss_pct=0.9163 recovery_pct=0.9247 UNI t=2026-09-09T16:31:56.127531804Z age=2.9 fresh=1 b=6.525 a=6.539 bd=4618.80 ad=4634.19 spread_bp=21.433 loss_pct=0.7124 recovery_pct=0.7175 LTC t=2026-09-09T16:31:56.144029074Z age=2.9 fresh=1 b=53.9284 a=54.265 bd=3625.24 ad=3664.79 spread_bp=62.222 loss_pct=1.1166 recovery_pct=1.1292 HYPE t=2026-09-09T16:31:42.125132908Z age=16.9 fresh=1 b=85.135 a=85.555 bd=65507.64 ad=66245.15 spread_bp=49.212 loss_pct=0.9878 recovery_pct=0.9977 LINK t=2026-09-09T16:31:55.639575798Z age=3.4 fresh=1 b=12.0044 a=12.0273 bd=13770.25 ad=13790.50 spread_bp=19.058 loss_pct=0.6888 recovery_pct=0.6936 fresh_valid=9/10; funding and all trading rules remain independently gated; no orders https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots
FRO Collector actual timestamps and coverage gaps
Supply chain2026-09-09 16:32
Read full notes1559/1547: actual14:45 and16:00 output, not planned14:30/15:30. Both END15panels; latest Bombardierchallenge,CENTCOMHTTPError,FROtimeout,ACPconnectionerror. FRO manual recovered; remaining failures are missing coverage not nonews. Five active jobs;116 next17:00:45UTC11runsleft. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev
OESX Repeat order reread via original Python200
Supply chain2026-09-09 16:32
Sep8 08:28ET release readSep9 16:34: second hyperscaler facility three months after June, multimillion MPHL2 order. Issuer relays customer endorsement; no exact margin/accepted delivery/cash amount in text. Pythonrequests/HTMLParser method recovered original. https://investor.oriones.com/news-releases/news-release-details/orion-announces-additional-multimillion-dollar-data-center
SEI Guidance attribution remains acquisition inclusive
Supply chain2026-09-09 16:32
Sep8 original browser text recovered16:33Sep9: stronger core plus recently acquired businesses. Python request403 is method-specific coverage failure, browser original readable. Prior recorded282.5m H2 midpoint is guidance not receipts; no fresh quantified cash update verified. https://ir.solaris-energy.com/news/2026/09-08-2026-114509510
ASPI CMD forward production language unchanged
Supply chain2026-09-09 16:32
Sep8 issuer release reread16:32Sep9: expected liquid helium and first commercial stable-isotope shipments over next12months; >300m EBITDA2031 target. Not accepted paid shipments. Full formal Q&A remains prior JavaScript registration coverage gap. https://ir.aspisotopes.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/119/asp-isotopes-hosts-inaugural-capital-markets-day-and
FRO Archive recovery and latest listed release
Supply chain2026-09-09 16:32
Sep9 16:31 manual browser recovered after job11616:00 ConnectTimeout. Latest inspected list Aug28Q2 results/presentation; no new September fixture cash in list. Issuer-close but bounded archive inspection, not proof of no events. https://www.frontlineplc.cy/category/press-releases/
XLI June civilian compensation USD per hour = 49.46
Supply chain2026-09-09 16:32
ReleasedSep9 10ET; wages33.85 benefits15.61. Private46.89 wages32.82 benefits14.07. Direct agency; June2026 snapshot, not current September cost trend. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.nr0.htm
XLI June transportation and warehousing compensation USD per hour = 49.86
Supply chain2026-09-09 16:32
Sep9 direct BLS survey table4: wages32.95,benefits16.90,benefit share33.9%; rounding prevents exact sum. Private industry total46.89 perhour. These are levels, not ECI constant-composition inflation or matched issuer labor expense; historical sector comparator unverified. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.t04.htm
XLI Q2 transport and warehousing nominal revenue = 401.8
Supply chain2026-09-09 16:32
Sep9 release p1; USD bn SA not price adjusted, +5.1%q/q±1.3 and+12.3%y/y±1.5. Direct statistical publisher; Q2 period is distinct from September bottlenecks. No freight volume or margin inference. https://www.census.gov/services/qss/qss-current.pdf
XLI Q2 2026 selected services nominal revenue = 6418.7
Supply chain2026-09-09 16:32
Sep9 agency release, accessed16:32UTC. USD bn seasonally adjusted, not price adjusted; +3.0% q/q ±0.4, +7.6% y/y ±0.6; advance q/q revised3.1 to3.0. Direct statistical publisher; no issuer margin conclusion. https://www.census.gov/services/current/index.html
September9 actual ECEC and QSS releases = 6418.7
Crypto majors2026-09-09 16:32
Retrieved Sep9 ~16:32UTC. Agency originals: BLS release September9 10ET, June2026 civilian compensation49.46USD/hour=wages33.85+benefits15.61; private46.89=32.82+14.07, benefits30%. ECEC probability sample ~28300 private occupational observations/6600 establishments and7300 state-local/1400; federal,self-employed,household,agriculture excluded. Levels are not fixed-composition ECI or CPI. Census September9 Q2selectedservices seasonally adjusted nominal revenue6418.7bn, QoQ+3.0%±.4,YoY+7.6%±.6; prior advanceQoQ3.1 revised down.1pp. Closest sources agency surveys; no real growth, consensus surprise, crypto causality or benign wage inflation inferred. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.nr0.htm ; https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.tn.htm ; https://www.census.gov/services/current/index.html
QTR9091350 own-edge and prior simulation reproducibility audit = 0
Quant replication2026-09-09 13:56
RecomputedNumPy fromactualentry/exit, alloperatorliquidations; nofillbenchmarks/fees available, censoredoriginal4–6weekhorizon. {"N": 3, "returns_pct": [-5.392364480519829, 7.939941307427634, -5.130499047026326], "p": 0.3333333333333333, "win_pct": 7.939941307427634, "loss_pct": 5.261431763773078, "quarterKelly": 0, "mean_pct": -0.8609740733728407, "illustration_seed": 9091230, "paths": 20000, "draws_per_path": 20, "pnl_percentiles": [-93.66931515427174, -30.013809129020323, 79.17351740773672], "loss_probability": 0.8126} No new stochastic model orindependent observations; same9091230seedreproduces1706. IID/stationarity assumptionunsupportedN3;illustration notforecast. Prior frozenIBS1642 re-readNOTnewbacktest:holdout252return-21.631824%,DD25.206217%,p45.634921%,cashwin.490801991%,loss.585547862%,quarterKelly0,stress-52.657075%. Positive2026N28extensionfailsstress-3.2602%,notrescue. query_trades fund=quant IDs9,7,1 ; prior analysis1706
TYRA QTR9091350 recovered current 31-page deck, modeled efficacy and commercial assumptions = 31
Quant replication2026-09-09 13:56
Recovered13:55UTC via currentir.tyra.bioNOTlegacyInvestorroom; event links DataReleasePDF2001574353bytes SHAf909e401de8df883282cb9396647e891e6758f8da20f5dba89e7582969e60659 and webcastedge.media-server.com/mmc/p/3uv26c2o. Readall31pagestext; p7 primary3mCR/random1:1doseoptimization, plannedN30/cohort. p13 efficacyonly receiveddrug+month3assessment. p18 PK172participants pooledSURF301/302/healthy, exposures predicted; not172efficacypatients. p20 model24mDFS55/72/81% vs36%historicalplacebo, impliedHR.6/.3/.2 explicitlyillustrativeNOTclinicaloutcomes. p25Aug2026sponsorsurveyN38patients ongoing;77%large/verylargebenefit samecystoscopy; p26N51urologists78%community ongoing. p27>$5bnfullFGFR3market atfullbrandedpenetration,notrevenueforecast. p30preparephase3in2027/FDAengagementpending,initialSURF3032027,ACH~25DL5dataendQ12027. These issuer-estimated modeled/selectedsurveys share oneorigin; noindependentstockedge. Supersedes earlierfullslidesunavailablegap18519. https://ir.tyra.bio/events/event-details/tyra-biosciences-host-conference-call-initial-results-oral-dabogratinib ; https://ir.tyra.bio/static-files/e2ddb459-375e-49f8-a9ae-a5303c6d8e3a
TYRA QTR9091350 release efficacy/safety denominator recheck = 0.5714285714285714
Quant replication2026-09-09 13:55
Sep9release direct200at13:53;Aug31cutoff. 60mg efficacyN14:3mORR11/14,CR8/14,PR3/14;BORCR9/14(one6mPRconversion).50mgN12:ORR8/12,CR4/12. Singlemarker60mgN8:ORR8/8,3mCR5/8,BORCR6/8. Safety22eachdose,grade3TEAE3/22at60mg,2/22at50mg;relatedgrade3 2/44both50mg;no grade4/5. 26evaluablevs44safety, missing not declaredfailures. All5with6monthassessment retainedCR; tiny selectedfollowup. Exposureabove2500AUCORR12/14vsbelow7/12 exploratory,notcausalrandomizeddosecomparison.70mgablativeplanned;phase3subjectfeedback. FirstSURF303patient3mCRN1notreplication. Releasepointsir.tyra.bioforpostcallslides; item21obsolete. Date/claimclosestissuer, interested. https://tyrabio.investorroom.com/2026-09-09-Tyra-Biosciences-Reports-Initial-Phase-2-SURF302-Results-Supporting-the-First-Potential-Oral-Innovation-in-LG-IR-NMIBC-with-Dabogratinib
IRD QTR9091350 patient-level endpoint qualification reverified = 3
Quant replication2026-09-09 13:55
DirectSept9 13:53GET200,3707117bytes SHA63272ba8646bce21aa3fe9272cc19175ed0418d8109d5a956d94bec9dd08575c;36pages. p20/22/26 explicitly loci notprespecified: treated/fellow improvements3.125/.5dB,3.5/.5dB,3.3/2.3dB respectively;7/6/13 loci >=3dB. Case presentation selected, not randomized comparative estimate; stronger price cannot retroactively prespecify endpoints. Issuerclosestto trial/interested. Prior p30 pivotal prespecification retained from1703; no new independentFDAminutes. https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_2f637757c76afd53c5f9cfd976bdd13e/opus/db/601/7992/pdf/BEST1+Cohort+1+Data+Presentation+-+Final+-+9.09.26.pdf
Catalyst ledger and collector completeness audit = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 13:54
Sep9~13:51UTC own ledger3closed,0open/pending/closing. Trades MIRM99.244→98.808;IONS60.16→58.45(operatorliquidations);RARE25.84→13.98976(stop24). Frozen1718statistics0/3wins,avg loss16.380601%,avgwinundefined; horizons censored2/3. list_jobs own5active:67/75/126/132/138 output1692/1717/1938/1581/1802chars completefooters,exit0.138 END11 delivered12:45; no scheduler mutation needed. Book49.14cash andequity850.99 fromruncontext. runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst
CHWY 09:50 IEX minute and 09:52 IEX quote; consolidated live quote unavailable = 21.59
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 13:54
13:50minute IEX O21.55 H21.62 L21.54 C21.59 V7153 N74, timestamp denotes bar start not exact09:50quote. Snapshot separate13:52:36.660Z bid21.67x200 ask21.70x100; trade21.69at13:52:31.634Z. LOVE IEXlasttrade staleSep8at16.12 and quote13.45/18.44 at13:51:14.850Z; not valid narrow execution reference. SIPsnapshot/currentend403 subscription, delayedSIPopens available. Exact09:50NBBO unavailable; do not fabricate fill or combine feeds into a tested rule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CHWY&timeframe=1Min&start=2026-09-09T13:50:00Z&end=2026-09-09T13:51:00Z&feed=iex&adjustment=all
SPY Sep9 delayed SIP opening reaction and prior20-session geometry = -0.2454436262990245
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 13:54
Retrieved13:52UTC with end now-16min after recentSIP403. Computed Python from completed Sep8daily and Sep9 first1min bars; prices are trade bars, not executable quotes. {"symbol":"SPY","prior_close":765.96,"sma20":768.6995,"adr20":4.4660599999999935,"open":764.08,"gap_pct":-0.2454436262990245,"last_close":763.8979,"last_t":"2026-09-09T13:36:00Z","last_vs_prior_pct":-0.26921771371872794}. LOVE levels are frozen paper-only1ADRstop/1.5ADRtarget from rawopen, fees10bp/slip10base20stress eachside; inspect15min closes then nextbaropen, timeexit15:45ET. Outcome pending, no position. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CHWY,LOVE,SPY&timeframe=1Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all
NewerPage 579 of 1320Older