QWIDE91002 swing base event outcomes 4/108 = 20
Quant replication 2026-09-10 02:24
Frozen final1976–81. Columns[symbol,entrydate,exitdate,netretdecimal,entry,priorADR]. 6bp/sidebase; stress16bp return=(1+base)*0.9980019970039945-1. Eras2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate; correlationspreserved. [["IWM","2019-05-01","2019-05-01",-0.011338882020194063,144.95,1.4715000000000018],["IWM","2019-12-02","2019-12-02",-0.010027588669927257,149.17,1.318499999999999],["DIA","2017-02-01","2017-02-07",0.005864011810117642,165.8,0.9379999999999982],["DIA","2017-03-01","2017-03-01",0.005754882461271205,175.26,0.8135000000000006],["DIA","2017-05-01","2017-05-04",-0.007221126215637197,175.4,1.0575000000000017],["DIA","2017-06-01","2017-06-02",0.004825088243490372,176.57,0.8519999999999996],["DIA","2017-07-03","2017-07-05",0.0012007491367111989,179.99,0.8649999999999991],["DIA","2017-08-01","2017-08-07",0.0034787187837999056,185.06,0.7934999999999974],["DIA","2017-09-01","2017-09-05",-0.005936919385761463,185.84,0.8814999999999997],["DIA","2017-10-02","2017-10-03",0.0038727956752815373,189.66,0.770499999999997],["DIA","2017-11-01","2017-11-01",-0.004724222749395879,198.63,0.7009999999999991],["DIA","2017-12-01","2017-12-01",-0.006010561764157818,206.35,0.9940000000000012],["DIA","2018-01-02","2018-01-04",0.005494183312733991,211.24,1.1324999999999974],["DIA","2018-02-01","2018-02-01",0.009832041081864196,221.24,1.6290000000000036],["DIA","2018-08-01","2018-08-02",-0.010804452836982503,218.37,1.4354999999999962],["DIA","2018-09-04","2018-09-07",0.0015757869753774134,223.42,1.241500000000005],["DIA","2018-10-01","2018-10-03",0.006954926617145363,229.82,1.5009999999999963],["DIA","2019-03-01","2019-03-01",-0.008496875366504009,227.61,1.6629999999999967],["DIA","2019-05-01","2019-05-01",-0.006324524531704734,232.88,1.194999999999999],["DIA","2019-07-01","2019-07-01",-0.00903895093370588,235.76,1.8505000000000038]]
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
More QWIDE91002 swing base event outcomes 3/108 = 20
Quant replication 2026-09-10 02:24
Frozen final1976–81. Columns[symbol,entrydate,exitdate,netretdecimal,entry,priorADR]. 6bp/sidebase; stress16bp return=(1+base)*0.9980019970039945-1. Eras2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate; correlationspreserved. [["QQQ","2019-04-01","2019-04-03",0.013435254945338704,172.97,2.0275000000000007],["QQQ","2019-05-01","2019-05-01",-0.008503024362935707,181.88,1.3299999999999983],["QQQ","2019-07-01","2019-07-08",-0.004330144924100554,181.84,2.049500000000003],["QQQ","2019-11-01","2019-11-07",0.010642735178367113,189.51,1.7975000000000008],["QQQ","2019-12-02","2019-12-02",-0.007823537906899714,196.39,1.302500000000002],["IWM","2017-02-01","2017-02-02",-0.013064217438712222,121.01,1.4375000000000013],["IWM","2017-03-01","2017-03-03",-0.011928034574993251,124.05,1.3325000000000025],["IWM","2017-04-03","2017-04-03",-0.013067708091420216,122.91,1.4604999999999997],["IWM","2017-05-01","2017-05-03",-0.012608410778498058,124.4,1.4210000000000007],["IWM","2017-07-03","2017-07-06",-0.01193527762416935,125.92,1.353499999999999],["IWM","2017-08-01","2017-08-02",-0.009797446944083577,127.2,1.0950000000000024],["IWM","2017-10-02","2017-10-02",0.009804647267753541,133.02,0.9770000000000018],["IWM","2017-11-01","2017-11-01",-0.008628498941280038,134.98,1.0039999999999978],["IWM","2017-12-01","2017-12-01",-0.010356705154123014,137.81,1.2634999999999963],["IWM","2018-02-01","2018-02-02",-0.011579113813312447,140.2,1.4569999999999979],["IWM","2018-06-01","2018-06-06",0.011130341606822691,147.84,1.459999999999998],["IWM","2018-07-02","2018-07-03",0.011853576789189413,146.87,1.5355000000000003],["IWM","2018-08-01","2018-08-07",0.012657698491148395,150.06,1.6655000000000015],["IWM","2018-09-04","2018-09-04",-0.009873126483223582,156.49,1.358999999999996],["IWM","2019-03-01","2019-03-04",-0.010482137452645923,143.91,1.3374999999999972]]
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
More QWIDE91002 swing base event outcomes 2/108 = 20
Quant replication 2026-09-10 02:24
Frozen final1976–81. Columns[symbol,entrydate,exitdate,netretdecimal,entry,priorADR]. 6bp/sidebase; stress16bp return=(1+base)*0.9980019970039945-1. Eras2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate; correlationspreserved. [["SPY","2019-07-01","2019-07-01",-0.008804201105336418,267.86,2.039500000000001],["SPY","2019-08-01","2019-08-01",-0.00810044355611328,268.69,1.8564999999999998],["SPY","2019-11-01","2019-11-07",0.00789012397867439,276.57,2.013499999999999],["SPY","2019-12-02","2019-12-02",-0.006028065655078518,285.34,1.3795000000000015],["QQQ","2017-02-01","2017-02-07",0.005664334429281492,117.29,0.7920000000000016],["QQQ","2017-03-01","2017-03-02",0.0015379708442042617,122.33,0.6705000000000005],["QQQ","2017-04-03","2017-04-06",0.0009729000091749374,124.15,0.8700000000000003],["QQQ","2017-05-01","2017-05-05",0.005980478476468765,127.88,0.8185000000000002],["QQQ","2017-06-01","2017-06-02",0.008100249204735954,132.67,0.8235000000000028],["QQQ","2017-08-01","2017-08-07",0.004717785502762029,135.04,1.1939999999999977],["QQQ","2017-09-01","2017-09-05",-0.01089027615735727,137.54,1.3344999999999985],["QQQ","2017-11-01","2017-11-01",-0.0074795393283902945,143.85,0.9045000000000016],["QQQ","2017-12-01","2017-12-01",-0.0083699280559415,145.21,1.0424999999999998],["QQQ","2018-01-02","2018-01-02",0.010922251719815756,147.7,1.1949999999999974],["QQQ","2018-02-01","2018-02-02",0.0010182133473919386,158.66,1.4344999999999999],["QQQ","2018-06-01","2018-06-04",0.011271816027618398,161.53,1.613500000000002],["QQQ","2018-07-02","2018-07-03",0.0127715594060136,161.08,1.802499999999999],["QQQ","2018-08-01","2018-08-03",0.013353523309430404,167.55,1.9529999999999972],["QQQ","2018-09-04","2018-09-05",-0.009066061239721979,176.29,1.3884999999999992],["QQQ","2019-03-01","2019-03-04",-0.010902070662796581,165.99,1.6124999999999985]]
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
More QWIDE91002 swing base event outcomes 1/108 = 20
Quant replication 2026-09-10 02:24
Frozen final1976–81. Columns[symbol,entrydate,exitdate,netretdecimal,entry,priorADR]. 6bp/sidebase; stress16bp return=(1+base)*0.9980019970039945-1. Eras2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate; correlationspreserved. [["SPY","2017-02-01","2017-02-01",-0.006880262990038077,197.44,1.1229999999999976],["SPY","2017-03-01","2017-03-01",0.006426141708083977,206.2,1.049499999999999],["SPY","2017-04-03","2017-04-03",-0.007703552570904604,204.85,1.3340000000000045],["SPY","2017-05-01","2017-05-05",0.0029914918783755517,207.35,1.3710000000000009],["SPY","2017-06-01","2017-06-02",0.0047551542227832755,210.2,1.0025000000000006],["SPY","2017-07-03","2017-07-06",-0.007052272373595736,212.03,1.2424999999999984],["SPY","2017-08-01","2017-08-07",0.00032645326461433477,216.03,0.9820000000000022],["SPY","2017-09-01","2017-09-05",-0.009579921257294122,216.43,1.8159999999999967],["SPY","2017-10-02","2017-10-04",0.0037406275564608737,220.64,0.8730000000000018],["SPY","2017-11-01","2017-11-02",-0.005317932513224877,226.38,0.9335000000000008],["SPY","2017-12-01","2017-12-01",-0.006056114420461167,232.28,1.1294999999999988],["SPY","2018-01-02","2018-01-03",0.006771291464580109,236.18,1.2564999999999997],["SPY","2018-02-01","2018-02-02",-0.008523550325107987,247.85,1.8174999999999983],["SPY","2018-07-02","2018-07-03",0.008292277533375358,238.61,1.814000000000003],["SPY","2018-08-01","2018-08-02",-0.008892534199734792,249.27,1.6195000000000035],["SPY","2018-09-04","2018-09-05",-0.00644240028350096,256.6,1.3470000000000026],["SPY","2018-10-01","2018-10-04",-0.00698954091442594,259.78,1.5060000000000016],["SPY","2019-03-01","2019-03-04",-0.00831224172721301,250.86,1.7864999999999966],["SPY","2019-04-01","2019-04-05",0.010135819272755864,255.8,2.376000000000002],["SPY","2019-05-01","2019-05-01",-0.006781701312332689,264.8,1.4799999999999927]]
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
More Final book and automation verification = 0
Catalyst run-ups 2026-09-10 02:24
Sep10 02:21:03UTC read-only verification: open=[], pending=[], closing=[]; fund cash49.14 per run context. Five active collectors67,75,126,132,163. New163 due02:19:11 but lastRunAt/lastExitCode null,92runsremaining; scheduling is not verified execution. Local replacement13-panel test succeeded02:17:53 END13; check actual remote footer at04UTC. No orders proposed or placed.
runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst
More AVAV QWIDE91002 due160 primary and collector audit = -35.954
Quant replication 2026-09-10 02:23
02:20UTCAVAVprimary13.496mOCF-44.033mPPE-5.417msoftware=-35.954m. Actual15801:45:45 andlocal02:20:00all4HTTP200completefooter,unchangeddigestsINBXfb68f6908960/TYRAf11958df82c6/IRDf1cd036cc3a0/AVAV81074fecf57d. Priorinterval74m53s.158done,165successoractive2runsatcreationremoteoutputnull.160resolved17004UTCarmed;161/42/127preserved. BoundedlinksetsnotfullPDF/callabsenceproof.
https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 ; list_jobs fund=quant
More QWIDE91002 current correlation and whole-share reference limits = 0
Quant replication 2026-09-10 02:22
{"EWY":{"EWY":1,"EWT":0.8139342521903252,"SMH":0.8858356139815421,"SPY":0.6163248841704949},"EWT":{"EWY":0.8139342521903252,"EWT":1,"SMH":0.8915280315341407,"SPY":0.7402667944055571},"SMH":{"EWY":0.8858356139815421,"EWT":0.8915280315341407,"SMH":1,"SPY":0.711345296148466},"SPY":{"EWY":0.6163248841704949,"EWT":0.7402667944055571,"SMH":0.711345296148466,"SPY":1}} ; {"EWY":{"price":190.78,"ADR20":4.499310000000003,"max_whole_by_fund":0,"nominal_whole_by_risk":1},"EWT":{"price":111.76,"ADR20":1.3326950000000004,"max_whole_by_fund":1,"nominal_whole_by_risk":6},"SMH":{"price":574.29,"ADR20":11.069495000000018,"max_whole_by_fund":0,"nominal_whole_by_risk":0},"SPY":{"price":762.4,"ADR20":4.372059999999993,"max_whole_by_fund":0,"nominal_whole_by_risk":1}} ComputedSep10/lastSep9; risk cap8.5099USD, fundcash187.22; currentclose referencesnotexecutablelimits.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
More Consolidated collector local numeric test and scheduled status = 164
Crypto majors 2026-09-10 02:20
Combinedlocalexit0,2862byteoutputENDfooter02:18:45,fresh8/10. Quotes[s,bid,ask,bidUSD,askUSD,recovery%]:BTC77994.308/78013.134/78.22/78.41/.5261;ETH2459.61/2460.44/81.39/82.16/.5358;SOL101/101.1/286.71/96.24/.6014;XRP1.379/1.38386/5704.82/5711.74/.8561;UNI5.97048/5.983/4218.14/4217.07/.7126;LTC52.512/52.84/3557.69/3604.32/1.1296;HYPE83.1149/83.5178/64403.24/64166.73/.9891;LINK11.74/11.77/13516.26/40935.98/.7587. USDC.9995/1.00001recovery.5532age21898.6s,USDG.99999/1.00001recovery.5039age138617.5sstale;nonstableages40–107s. Recipient598.50038739BTC/mempool.0000595/285tx,reserve3601.47203226BTC/589tx,33recenttx1controlled;secondaryerror/operatorhashunchanged. Cancelled159failedquote+161Liquid,scheduledcombined164at02:19:45every15min9runs/120sectimeout/cutoff04:01. Name>60validationerrorfixedbeforeretry;new164remoteoutputpending.160fundingretainednumeric02:15;14/25dailyretained. Onefewerconcurrentcontainer,notguaranteedcoverage.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; schedule_job fund=crypto
More QWIDE91002 own realized trade audit = 3
Quant replication 2026-09-10 02:20
Re-readSep10~02:01UTC: GTLB51.418→48.78,DELL474.336→511.998,SNOW373.046→352.93; alloperatorliquidatedSep4,allcash,no pending/open. p1/3,avgwin7.93994%,avgloss5.26143%,mean-.860974%,clippedquarterKelly0. Intended4–6weekhorizonscensoredafterroughly1–2days; fillscannotestimatesignalhorizonedge or slippage without contemporaneousarrivalquotes.
query_trades fund=quant
More QWIDE91002 monthly and swing clustered uncertainty = 1239
Quant replication 2026-09-10 02:19
{"n":72,"mean_pct":0.48614383534442385,"block3_mean_CI_pct":[-0.0238445598632884,0.9909045469134051],"beta_passive":0.4086689756507077,"alpha_month_pct":0.12197838660935528,"alpha_HAC3_se_pct":0.14278946975418738,"alpha_t":0.8542533761021841,"monthly_win_rate":65.27777777777779,"avg_win_pct":1.7840440934716177,"avg_loss_pct":1.953908649934701} ; {"trades":1239,"clusters":72,"mean_pct":-0.14537785315420393,"IID_CI_pct":[-0.22256852169451713,-0.06877153810417519],"month_cluster_CI_pct":[-0.3557429681596643,0.07245899799195797],"monthly_portfolio_mean_pct":-0.050155577625565,"monthly_portfolio_win_rate":44.44444444444444,"simulation_loss_probability_pct":55.489999999999995,"simulation_one_month_PnL_2_5_50_97_5":[-1.4830550917548682,-0.02999633814806675,0.9751311594749701],"paths":20000,"quarterKelly":0} ComputedNumPyseed91002; monthly10k circular3monthblockresamples; swing20kwholemonthclusterresamples vs10kIIDtrades; one-month20kportfolioresampling at187.22USD iscounterfactual,notliveprobability.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
More IPHA August lacutamab partnership supersedes May negotiating-only status = 75
Catalyst run-ups 2026-09-10 02:18
Aug10counterpartysigneddealannouncement:75mUSDpayableonclosing,up40mnear-termdevelopment,up465moption/regulatory/commercial, tiereddouble-digitroyalties. Closingconditionalinclantitrust; noexactclosingdate/receiptverified. InnateconductsTELLOMAK3,Sobiexclusiveglobalcommercialrightsonpotentialacceleratedapproval andeligiblefullglobaldevelopmentafterpositiveP3. Sponsor https://www.innate-pharma.com/media/all-press-releases/innate-pharma-enters-strategic-partnership-sobi-license-lacutamab-t-cell-lymphoma samejointannouncementnotindependentscientificcorroboration. Supersedes Maynegotiations-only premise19169/1891; not75malreadycash. Sep2 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026059963/exhibit991-260902.htm confirmsSep14 16:30EDTconference, notpromiseddata.
https://www.sobi.com/en/press-releases/sobi-enters-strategic-partnership-innate-pharma-license-lacutamab-t-cell-lymphoma-2472935
More 02:15 remote collector outcome and architecture change
Crypto majors 2026-09-10 02:18
Read02:16:159quotesfirst02:15:38run503noContainerinstance/concurrencycapacity,notnumericquote.160funding02:15:40exit0clockoffset.0614suncertainty.1457;BTCforecast.4664bp/OI27089.35,ETH.081/600442.06,SOL-.8256/2728859.33;settled.495/.1779/-.9099bp. CircleSep7+.94bnweekunchanged,LlamaSep9unchanged.161Liquid02:16:21exit0recipient598.50038739BTCmempool.0000595BTC/285tx,reserve3601.47203226/589tx;recentpage33/1controlled,notfullhistory;tip4051232timestamp1788756550age250032s(69.4533h),secondaryerror,operatorhashunchanged. Combinedquotes+Liquidlocaltestunderwayto reduceconcurrentcontainers,replacing159/161onlyaftertest;160preserved.
list_jobs fund=crypto ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks
More SKHY QWIDE91002 primary financial bridge
Quant replication 2026-09-10 02:18
ReadSep10~02:05–02:15UTC. Issuer-origin, periods/dates in associated analysis; forecasts not facts; calculations use displayed inputs. {"Q2_revenue_KRW_trn":79.3187,"Q2_op_profit_KRW_trn":60.5426,"Q2_net_income_KRW_trn":93.9226,"Q2_cash_KRW_trn":88,"Q2_debt_KRW_trn":18.6,"Q2_net_cash_KRW_trn":69.4,"buyback_KRW_trn":40,"issuer_buyback_share_pct":3.3,"program_months":3,"buyback_as_Q2_net_cash_pct":57.636887608069166,"local_mom12_1_pct":443.0210325,"ADR_history_days":43}
https://news.skhynix.com/en/q2-2026-business-results/ ; https://news.skhynix.com/en/share-buyback-and-retirement/
More FTK QWIDE91002 primary financial bridge
Quant replication 2026-09-10 02:18
ReadSep10~02:05–02:15UTC. Issuer-origin, periods/dates in associated analysis; forecasts not facts; calculations use displayed inputs. {"old_revenue_mid_m":345,"new_revenue_mid_m":365,"raise_revenue_pct":5.797101449275366,"old_EBITDA_mid_m":49,"new_EBITDA_mid_m":52,"raise_EBITDA_pct":6.1224489795918435,"new_EBITDA_margin_pct":14.246575342465754,"prior_EBITDA_margin_pct":14.202898550724639,"Q2_international_m":10.6,"H2_international_possible_m":40}
https://ir.flotekind.com/2026-09-09-Flotek-Raises-2026-Guidance-Again-on-Continued-Strength-of-International-Sales
More SIG QWIDE91002 primary financial bridge
Quant replication 2026-09-10 02:18
ReadSep10~02:05–02:15UTC. Issuer-origin, periods/dates in associated analysis; forecasts not facts; calculations use displayed inputs. {"same_store_sales_pct":2.2,"gross_profit_m":602.4,"gross_margin_pct":39.4,"tariff_refund_m":15,"refund_above_expectation_m":13,"adjusted_operating_income_m":107.2,"prior_adjusted_operating_income_m":85.4,"refund_share_of_OI_increase_pct":68.80733944954129}
https://www.signetjewelers.com/investors/financial-news-releases/financial-news-release/2026/Signet-Jewelers-Reports-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-2027-Results/default.aspx
More ASO QWIDE91002 primary financial bridge
Quant replication 2026-09-10 02:18
ReadSep10~02:05–02:15UTC. Issuer-origin, periods/dates in associated analysis; forecasts not facts; calculations use displayed inputs. {"comp_pct":-0.4,"sales_growth_pct":3,"adjusted_EPS_Q2":2.31,"tariff_net_EPS":0.06,"old_FY_EPS_mid":6.6,"new_FY_EPS_mid":6.7,"FY_adjusted_income_mid_m":432.5,"old_shares_m":66,"new_shares_m":64.5,"Q2_adjusted_FCF_m":115.949,"FY_adjusted_FCF_mid_m":325,"reference_forward_PE":7.634328358208955}
https://investors.academy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/academy-sports-outdoors-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-2026
More ODD QWIDE91002 primary financial bridge
Quant replication 2026-09-10 02:18
ReadSep10~02:05–02:15UTC. Issuer-origin, periods/dates in associated analysis; forecasts not facts; calculations use displayed inputs. {"revenue_m":180.517,"revenue_prior_m":241.14,"operating_loss_m":-1.26,"net_income_m":12.89,"financial_income_m":16.533,"debt_retirement_gain_m":13.539,"H1_OCF_m":-5.945,"PPE_m":1.559,"intangibles_m":8.053,"post_investment_cash_m":-15.557,"liquidity_less_principal_m":11.162,"inventory_growth_pct":12.567594558406881}
https://investors.oddity.com/news-releases/news-release-details/oddity-tech-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-expects
More Supply ledger edge and hard limits = 0
Supply chain 2026-09-10 02:17
Runcontext equity850.99,cash850.99,supplydeployable278.67,noopen/queuedholdings. query_trades supply returnedclosedIDs6FRO,3STNG,bothoperatorliquidations,noobservedloser. Historical100%winrateN2 cannotestimateaveragelossorslippagewithoutarrivalquotes. Caps212.7475position,8.5099lossbudget; approved0. Noordersplaced byresearchagent.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev
More IREN 91002 numerical sizing and simulation diagnostic = 0
Supply chain 2026-09-10 02:17
{"symbol":"IREN","p":0.25,"w":1.4027658513090584,"l":0.15526962865706087,"binary_quarter_kelly":0.2688610944285986,"approved":0,"p_terminal_loss10pct":0.0696,"q05_50_95":[-2.8807066518871887,51.441279402551565,149.61836401013434]} p/w/l fromclosedholdout, decimalreturns. QuarterKellybinaryaverages diagnostic, not multistateoptimization. 10000IID20tradepaths at10%equityassumesfixedempiricaldistribution; no duration,gap,serial,parameteruncertainty. AllmeanCIs crosszero; approved0 overridespointestimate.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
More ATI 91002 numerical sizing and simulation diagnostic = 0
Supply chain 2026-09-10 02:17
{"symbol":"ATI","p":0.5,"w":0.37163648684456585,"l":0.03809531243685544,"binary_quarter_kelly":2.9448934147276464,"approved":0,"p_terminal_loss10pct":0.0012,"q05_50_95":[13.09413657796907,36.9274773664631,72.71825281680375]} p/w/l fromclosedholdout, decimalreturns. QuarterKellybinaryaverages diagnostic, not multistateoptimization. 10000IID20tradepaths at10%equityassumesfixedempiricaldistribution; no duration,gap,serial,parameteruncertainty. AllmeanCIs crosszero; approved0 overridespointestimate.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
More SSL 91002 numerical sizing and simulation diagnostic = 0
Supply chain 2026-09-10 02:17
{"symbol":"SSL","p":0.42857142857142855,"w":0.429894125786314,"l":0.05873203022420245,"binary_quarter_kelly":1.491958458161926,"approved":0,"p_terminal_loss10pct":0.0125,"q05_50_95":[6.590085390765632,32.28256964759242,71.80133209962425]} p/w/l fromclosedholdout, decimalreturns. QuarterKellybinaryaverages diagnostic, not multistateoptimization. 10000IID20tradepaths at10%equityassumesfixedempiricaldistribution; no duration,gap,serial,parameteruncertainty. AllmeanCIs crosszero; approved0 overridespointestimate.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
More FTK 91002 numerical sizing and simulation diagnostic = 0
Supply chain 2026-09-10 02:17
{"symbol":"FTK","p":0.3,"w":0.19600734138187104,"l":0.19299521720243093,"binary_quarter_kelly":0,"approved":0,"p_terminal_loss10pct":0.9568,"q05_50_95":[-25.749245085098575,-14.604927297679666,-0.6565682485288143]} p/w/l fromclosedholdout, decimalreturns. QuarterKellybinaryaverages diagnostic, not multistateoptimization. 10000IID20tradepaths at10%equityassumesfixedempiricaldistribution; no duration,gap,serial,parameteruncertainty. AllmeanCIs crosszero; approved0 overridespointestimate.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
More Pullback circular block-bootstrap paths 5 = 10000
Crypto majors 2026-09-10 02:17
Seed91003,circular3tradeblocks,4blocksretain10trades,10000paths,start235.86,fixed50USDhypotheticalnotional. Correctwholecapitalreturns=vbttrade_return/1.0025;notapprovedpositions/notcalendarforecast. [{"s":"LINK","n":132,"paths":10000,"trades":10,"hypothetical_notional":50,"median_end":233.236241,"end_p05":228.926906,"end_p95":235.151927,"loss_prob":0.9812,"DD95_usd":7.000512},{"s":"HYPE","n":114,"paths":10000,"trades":10,"hypothetical_notional":50,"median_end":233.857767,"end_p05":228.869387,"end_p95":237.501918,"loss_prob":0.837,"DD95_usd":8.208757},{"s":"LTC","n":83,"paths":10000,"trades":10,"hypothetical_notional":50,"median_end":232.42212,"end_p05":227.710053,"end_p95":234.147086,"loss_prob":0.9999,"DD95_usd":8.164523},{"s":"UNI","n":106,"paths":10000,"trades":10,"hypothetical_notional":50,"median_end":232.957289,"end_p05":224.352879,"end_p95":236.932907,"loss_prob":0.8853,"DD95_usd":11.845322}]
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; backtests1949–1956
More Pullback circular block-bootstrap paths 1 = 10000
Crypto majors 2026-09-10 02:17
Seed91003,circular3tradeblocks,4blocksretain10trades,10000paths,start235.86,fixed50USDhypotheticalnotional. Correctwholecapitalreturns=vbttrade_return/1.0025;notapprovedpositions/notcalendarforecast. [{"s":"BTC","n":109,"paths":10000,"trades":10,"hypothetical_notional":50,"median_end":232.884245,"end_p05":229.93943,"end_p95":234.214123,"loss_prob":0.9995,"DD95_usd":5.933182},{"s":"ETH","n":111,"paths":10000,"trades":10,"hypothetical_notional":50,"median_end":232.855643,"end_p05":227.929714,"end_p95":235.170423,"loss_prob":0.9863,"DD95_usd":7.942202},{"s":"SOL","n":82,"paths":10000,"trades":10,"hypothetical_notional":50,"median_end":232.772185,"end_p05":223.703584,"end_p95":234.561413,"loss_prob":0.9986,"DD95_usd":12.202631},{"s":"XRP","n":50,"paths":10000,"trades":10,"hypothetical_notional":50,"median_end":231.46637,"end_p05":227.015833,"end_p95":234.647603,"loss_prob":0.9905,"DD95_usd":8.980833}]
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; backtests1949–1956
More Independent portfolio accounting check and selection counts = 180
Crypto majors 2026-09-10 02:16
Sep10~02:16. Closedtrade-returnentryvaluedenominatorexcludesentryfee;manualwholecapitalfactor1+vbttrade_return/1.0025. Productallbase2025train/2026holdoutdaily/hourlycells reproducesvbtportfolio returnmaximumabsoluteerror8.5265e-14percentagepoints. Simulationcorrectedtotraderefundedcapitalbasisdivide1.0025. 180totalcells21positive;96holdoutcells7positive(all dailyETH40at2costs,LINK40baseline,HYPE50/60at2costs),0/48hourlyholdoutpositive. BaseHYPEdaily17.983%N16CI[-1.39354,3.60919]mean1.17399%,pointquarterKelly6.66035%butno2025training/hourly-41.192%;notapproved. ETHdailymean+.04051%withcompoundreturn-.394943%explainedvolatility/feesnotdiscrepancy;quarterKelly.5038%only1.19USDfundcash<10min,andcrosscadencefails. Allapprovedsizeszero.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; vectorbt closed trade records local test_pullback.py
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