Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
IPHA IPH4502 overlapping undated readout = 76
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 04:06
July21 2026 enrollmentcomplete76Phase1patients; preliminarydataset expectedbyyearend, notSep17 exactreadout. Qualitativeresponsesinmultiplecancerswithoutnumerators here; no pooledORR inferred. Otherprogram canchangeissuer stockbeforecalendarreport. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000159859926000008/a260721exhibit991.htm
IPHA TELLOMAK3 design and funding boundary
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 04:06
Aug10 2026 issuer says upfront projected runwayQ3 2027 (laterAug14 combinedequityQ1 2028). Trialrandomized/openlabel/multicenter,SS confirmatory andMFregistrational cohorts,prior>=1systemictherapy,primaryPFS. Intendedfunding supportsstudy andfiling, no disclosure hereguarantees fullyfundedcompletion. Clinical sponsor optimism distinctfromFDA judgment. https://www.innate-pharma.com/media/all-press-releases/innate-pharma-advance-lacutamab-towards-phase-3-following-partnership-sobi-and-appoints-new-chief-medical-officer
IPHA Dilution denominators = 111731269
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 04:06
Aug14 table prior total shares94,084,210 including12,347 preferred; post111,731,269; fullydiluted117,834,832. New17,647,059 reported18.76% of priorcapital; existing1% becomes~.84%. Differentdenominators not contradictory. Pricing15% discount to five-sessionVWAP. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026057935/exhibit993.htm
IPHA Equity completion and proceeds use = 27.6
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 04:06
Aug19 6K confirms Aug18 capital increase completed:17,647,059 ordinaryshares atEUR1.70;30m gross,2.4m fees/expenses,27.6m expectednet. Priority IPH4502/ADC development plus general purposes. New shares cannot enter existing ADS program; no new ADS issued. Funding purpose not exclusivelySobi bridge. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026057935/a260819_6k1.htm
IPHA Q1 financial asset composition and liabilities = 25.4
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 04:06
May13 release coversMar31 2026: EUR25.4m headline cash includes4.9m short-term investments and10.4m noncurrent instruments; financialliabilities20.3m. EUR2.6m quarterly revenue includes recognition of prior partner proceeds, not equivalent fresh cash. March balances not September cash. https://www.innate-pharma.com/media/all-press-releases/innate-pharma-reports-first-quarter-2026-business-update-and-financial-results
IPHA Sobi funding and retained trial responsibility = 75
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 04:06
Aug10 2026 counterparty joint release: USD75m on closing, up to40m near-term and465m other option/milestones; tiered double-digit royalties. Innate conducts TELLOMAK3; Sobi gets commercial rights on potential accelerated approval and eligible full development rights after positivePhase3. Antitrust condition. Joint sponsor copies one origin; no detailed cost-sharing schedule or actual receipt established. https://www.sobi.com/en/press-releases/sobi-enters-strategic-partnership-innate-pharma-license-lacutamab-t-cell-lymphoma-2472935
IPHA Conditional runway revision to Q1 2028 = 2028
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 04:06
Aug14 2026 issuer offering exhibit: existing resources through Q3 2026; equity proceeds PLUS USD75m Sobi closing payment expected to extend runway through Q1 2028. Supersedes Aug10 Q3 2027 guidance for combined-financing case; management forecast, not verified receipt or trial completion funding. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026057935/exhibit993.htm
IWM QPAIR91004 IWM benchmark distinction
Quant replication2026-09-10 04:04
Issuer page readSep10 2026 describes Russell2000 exposure. IJR tracksS&P600, hence these funds do not promise identical holdings or terminal payoff; pairconvergence is a hypothesis, not redemption arbitrage. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239710/ishares-russell-2000-etf
IJR QPAIR91004 IJR benchmark and current dated liquidity
Quant replication2026-09-10 04:04
Issuer readSep10 2026: benchmarkS&P600, inceptionMay22 2000; asSep8closing144.25,median30daybidask.01%,dailyvolume2768301; asSep9NAV142.68. Closingprice andNAV have different dates and must not be divided as same-daypremium. Issuer marketing/prospectus source closest to fund, not independent payoff evidence. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239774/ishares-core-sp-smallcap-etf
QPAIR91004 ETF primary-market mechanism
Quant replication2026-09-10 04:04
SEC investor bulletin March2023, readSep10 2026. Authorized participants can transact creation/redemption units with fund; retail secondary-market price can differ fromNAV. Inference: same-index pairs' small spreads are competed by participants with basket access; our187.22USDsleeve cannot assume that economics. https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/general-resources/news-alerts/alerts-bulletins/investor-bulletins-24
QPAIR91004 Avellaneda Lee hedging and cost mechanism
Quant replication2026-09-10 04:04
2010 paper, historical1997-2007: residual mean reversion estimated on60prior days,5bp/trade cost assumption, stock/ETF or PCA hedges. Synthetic sector implementation adds dailySPYbetahedge. Authors observe cost domination after excessive defactoring and2007liquidity shock. Does not calibrate unhedged ETF-only contemporary strategy. https://traders.berkeley.edu/papers/Statistical%20arbitrage%20in%20the%20US%20equities%20market.pdf
QPAIR91004 Published Gatev design differs from cash-only adaptation
Quant replication2026-09-10 04:04
February2006 paper; study1962-2002: pairs formed using12months normalized dividend-reinvested price distance, traded next6months, two-SD divergence and crossing exit; both long loser and short winner. Exact paper is not ETF60day ratio/10day cash-only strategy. Primary author manuscript, not independent modern replication. https://repec.som.yale.edu/icfpub/publications/2573.pdf
Airport and pipeline current corroboration access gap
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:03
Sep10 bounded primary searches airports.co.za and transnet.net for2026 Natref/jet/September gave no current dated operations quantities; direct airport open timed out, archived page shows service error. Missing access/search results are not evidence no disruption; no current jet stock or terminal capacity numbers measured. https://www.airports.co.za/news
SSL January 2025 outage historical comparator
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:03
Operator Jan13 2025: Jan4 fire around crude distillation unit, plant safely shut, imports among mitigation; duration/volume assessment pending then. Historical different unit/period, not independent August2026 event and not matched causal control. https://sasol.com/media-centre/media-release/Natref-fuel-supply-interruption
Regulated fuel import parity scope
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:03
Department methodology page read Sep10, publication date not given: basic fuel price represents imported supply costs, international product benchmarks and FX; domestic levies/margins added. Covers petrol/diesel/illuminating paraffin; NOT evidence all jet contracts regulated the same way. No local monopoly jet premium inferred. https://www.dmre.gov.za/default.aspx?tabid=360
SSL Natref co-owner marketed capacity = 108500
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:03
Undated co-owner page read Sep10 2026 labels108500 barrels/day and36.36% stake, Sasol63.64; marketing capacity/current output ambiguous and not an August achieved throughput print. Ownership corroboration sits at co-owner; old page does not resolve business rescue financing. https://www.prax.com/service/natref-refinery/
SSL Natref capacity access versus ownership = 63.64
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:03
Issuer Jan22 2026 H1 metrics says agreed with business rescue practitioners to use available Prax SA capacity; Prax entered rescue Oct2025. Historical ownership Sasol63.64/Prax36.36. Production access not equity acquisition; current terms and timing require FY26 update. https://www.sasol.com/sasol-sens/202601220001a-s516022
SSL Natref August supply shortfall
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:03
Operator Aug26 2026 reports unable to meet full commitments in certain product grades incl jet fuel ORTIA; continued partial supply. Does not establish total refinery shutdown or airport fuel exhaustion. Same origin as Sep1, not independent corroboration. https://sasol.com/media-centre/media-releases/unplanned-unit-shutdown-at-natref
SSL Natref September operational scope
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:03
Operator Sep1 2026, read Sep10: mid-Aug unplanned downstream unit coincided with separate planned outage; mitigation intended to keep affected unit operating until end September. No numerical restored throughput, lost volume, realized jet price or repair cost. Closest operator, interested continuity framing. Distinct FY27 event, not FY26 operating evidence. https://www.sasol.com/media-centre/media-releases/natref-operational-update
Primary documentation: crypto price construction and pagination
Crypto majors2026-09-10 04:03
Read2026Sep10~04:03UTC;provider documentation closest to feed specification,not independent assurance. Crypto bars include quote midpoints; zero trade volume can still produce OHLC. Bars reference loc US/US-1/EU-1 and inclusive end; less than requested limit may return with more pages. FAQ New York day/trade-condition rules appear under STOCKS and must not be imported into crypto. Historical overview says Alpaca-only whereas newer endpoint loc lists Kraken; definition/version scope conflict, not proof proxy selected Kraken. No source states this measured discrepancy cause. https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-crypto-data-1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/reference/cryptobars-1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/market-data-faq
QWIDE91002 exact stress factor and archived outcome completeness = 2163
Quant replication2026-09-10 02:26
108outcomeobservations preserveall2163baseevents (709train/1239holdout/2152026),includingentry/exitdate,netreturn,entryprice,ADR. ExactstressfactorK=((1-.0015)/(1+.0015))/((1-.0005)/(1+.0005))=0.9980019965049923; stress_return=(1+base_return)*K-1,maximumreconstructionerror6.661338147750939e-16againstall2163stresssimulations. This exactfactor supersedes approximate0.9980019970039945 printedinchunkheaders (difference~5e-10, no materialeffect). Storedfinalbackteststatisticscome fromactualsimulations,notthatheaderapproximation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QWIDE91002 swing base event outcomes 108/108 = 19
Quant replication2026-09-10 02:25
Frozen final1976–81. Columns[symbol,entrydate,exitdate,netretdecimal,entry,priorADR]. 6bp/sidebase; stress16bp return=(1+base)*0.9980019970039945-1. Eras2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate; correlationspreserved. [["EZA","2026-01-02","2026-01-05",0.01688512175144785,67.85,0.8190000000000015],["EZA","2026-02-02","2026-02-03",0.02067399323964647,71.32,1.2495000000000005],["EZA","2026-03-02","2026-03-03",-0.08238480840033091,77.63,1.6999999999999986],["EZA","2026-09-01","2026-09-03",0.015559532829361178,69.68,0.9353249999999995],["EWZ","2026-02-02","2026-02-03",0.02332788600377711,36.65,0.5999999999999994],["EWZ","2026-03-02","2026-03-03",-0.008742791263335103,37.57,0.7824999999999995],["EWZ","2026-05-01","2026-05-04",-0.017448502137671573,39.37,0.6405000000000005],["EWW","2026-01-02","2026-01-08",0.006918693546790422,68.9,1.085500000000002],["EWW","2026-02-02","2026-02-03",0.026860334165409228,73.95,1.3850000000000002],["EWW","2026-03-02","2026-03-03",-0.038780969193060844,77.87,1.7195000000000007],["EWW","2026-05-01","2026-05-06",0.022965253167579025,75.64,1.4640000000000029],["EWW","2026-08-03","2026-08-07",0.003200722798355482,77.18,1.3322050000000019],["DBC","2026-02-02","2026-02-03",0.013594874835021642,23.66,0.2803599999999998],["DBC","2026-03-02","2026-03-02",-0.012878188902250676,25.89,0.30272999999999983],["DBC","2026-04-01","2026-04-06",0.023078454303254725,28.72,0.5584749999999998],["DBC","2026-05-01","2026-05-06",-0.00318871480388927,30.88,0.38698500000000047],["DBC","2026-09-01","2026-09-03",0.010582384040130455,31.57,0.29791500000000004],["UUP","2026-06-01","2026-06-05",0.0023265994641992194,27.77,0.07842499999999948],["UUP","2026-07-01","2026-07-02",-0.007862627869332117,28.48,0.10004500000000008]] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QWIDE91002 swing base event outcomes 107/108 = 20
Quant replication2026-09-10 02:25
Frozen final1976–81. Columns[symbol,entrydate,exitdate,netretdecimal,entry,priorADR]. 6bp/sidebase; stress16bp return=(1+base)*0.9980019970039945-1. Eras2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate; correlationspreserved. [["EWI","2026-01-02","2026-01-05",0.007238352354309585,53.89,0.30349999999999894],["EWI","2026-02-02","2026-02-03",0.010932507476772102,55.14,0.44650000000000034],["EWI","2026-03-02","2026-03-03",-0.050425625842677846,54.58,0.5404999999999991],["EWI","2026-05-01","2026-05-04",-0.01932409963215498,56.76,0.6890000000000001],["EWI","2026-06-01","2026-06-03",0.003978116395011,57.73,0.5985000000000003],["EWI","2026-07-01","2026-07-02",0.013940623448150502,58.83,0.5945000000000007],["EWI","2026-08-03","2026-08-04",0.011369591862194772,62.11,0.5210600000000003],["EWI","2026-09-01","2026-09-01",-0.0072542261684878095,61.64,0.3736749999999997],["EWD","2026-01-02","2026-01-02",-0.008640438233623704,48.59,0.3620000000000001],["EWD","2026-02-02","2026-02-03",0.011497959139873615,51.18,0.5205000000000009],["EWD","2026-03-02","2026-03-03",-0.039629473508718704,51.98,0.6429999999999996],["EWD","2026-08-03","2026-08-04",0.014495517813653436,52.81,0.5532250000000001],["EWD","2026-09-01","2026-09-01",-0.00915412219967271,53.08,0.4227499999999992],["EWN","2026-01-02","2026-01-05",0.010274595966171196,57.91,0.44350000000000095],["EWN","2026-02-02","2026-02-03",0.004290379711215264,61.36,0.6745000000000001],["EWN","2026-03-02","2026-03-03",-0.03671733441085656,60.46,0.7829999999999998],["EWN","2026-05-01","2026-05-04",-0.014935793877524972,62.35,0.8575000000000006],["EWN","2026-06-01","2026-06-02",0.01548775998869778,65.99,0.8819999999999997],["EWN","2026-07-01","2026-07-02",-0.018414859456682642,68.91,1.1877500000000019],["EWN","2026-09-01","2026-09-01",-0.010511269110782262,67.89,0.6329499999999989]] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QWIDE91002 swing base event outcomes 106/108 = 20
Quant replication2026-09-10 02:25
Frozen final1976–81. Columns[symbol,entrydate,exitdate,netretdecimal,entry,priorADR]. 6bp/sidebase; stress16bp return=(1+base)*0.9980019970039945-1. Eras2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate; correlationspreserved. [["EWT","2026-07-01","2026-07-02",-0.024787420855192144,107.33,2.5347549999999996],["EWT","2026-09-01","2026-09-02",-0.014519039583038573,110.23,1.3646950000000004],["EWY","2026-01-02","2026-01-05",0.012858716143003601,101,1.1372500000000016],["EWY","2026-02-02","2026-02-03",0.01888806464155013,118.76,1.9107500000000015],["EWY","2026-03-02","2026-03-03",-0.036809970405947356,144.12,3.803249999999997],["EWY","2026-05-01","2026-05-04",0.03302257353247007,159.91,4.38319],["EWY","2026-06-01","2026-06-04",-0.05594038001001511,211.47,6.667250000000001],["EWL","2026-01-02","2026-01-05",-0.014664743393426272,59.34,0.35699999999999826],["EWL","2026-02-02","2026-02-04",0.011036974121903187,60.73,0.4959999999999994],["EWL","2026-03-02","2026-03-03",-0.03602630482461888,62.52,0.5085000000000004],["EWL","2026-07-01","2026-07-02",0.0131176917350746,62.29,0.5952500000000001],["EWL","2026-08-03","2026-08-05",0.010389957809214367,63.34,0.5879549999999998],["EWP","2026-01-02","2026-01-02",-0.007729398861454295,53.61,0.3505000000000006],["EWP","2026-02-02","2026-02-03",-0.010871744709263886,55.71,0.5395000000000006],["EWP","2026-03-02","2026-03-03",-0.05057450748221759,54.82,0.6884999999999991],["EWP","2026-05-01","2026-05-04",-0.02277665710364829,56.01,0.7634999999999998],["EWP","2026-06-01","2026-06-05",0.004556853153564244,55.96,0.645000000000001],["EWP","2026-07-01","2026-07-02",0.0160718191240814,58.62,0.6757650000000008],["EWP","2026-08-03","2026-08-05",0.011118775565893246,61.62,0.60796],["EWP","2026-09-01","2026-09-01",-0.00899417414650383,62.07,0.4844100000000001]] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QWIDE91002 swing base event outcomes 105/108 = 20
Quant replication2026-09-10 02:25
Frozen final1976–81. Columns[symbol,entrydate,exitdate,netretdecimal,entry,priorADR]. 6bp/sidebase; stress16bp return=(1+base)*0.9980019970039945-1. Eras2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate; correlationspreserved. [["EWA","2026-02-02","2026-02-03",0.012597064360469368,27.42,0.25249999999999984],["EWA","2026-03-02","2026-03-03",-0.008816673000987763,29.24,0.3540000000000001],["EWA","2026-05-01","2026-05-04",-0.0118229822495598,28.91,0.3075000000000001],["EWA","2026-08-03","2026-08-04",0.012305486778943164,29.31,0.2642000000000005],["EWA","2026-09-01","2026-09-01",-0.007884037009043388,29.93,0.20031499999999963],["EWH","2026-02-02","2026-02-04",0.010108414178802594,22.8,0.2065000000000005],["EWH","2026-03-02","2026-03-02",0.015720059404647824,23.2,0.2620000000000003],["EWH","2026-05-01","2026-05-04",-0.010392009597842478,23.36,0.21500000000000075],["EWS","2026-02-02","2026-02-03",-0.010400659833705195,27.68,0.2549999999999999],["EWS","2026-03-02","2026-03-03",-0.012067623349268475,27.57,0.29799999999999915],["EWS","2026-05-01","2026-05-04",-0.01521753608589238,28.5,0.26350000000000035],["EWS","2026-06-01","2026-06-01",0.010259385532350285,28.83,0.2205],["EWS","2026-07-01","2026-07-02",0.010654699750157315,29.47,0.2798049999999998],["EWS","2026-08-03","2026-08-04",0.008293818589479862,32.24,0.24513999999999997],["EWS","2026-09-01","2026-09-02",0.005122896007370814,33.77,0.1710049999999999],["EWT","2026-01-02","2026-01-05",0.012003369345658932,64.37,0.5672499999999996],["EWT","2026-02-02","2026-02-03",0.012227820877401374,68.25,0.7339999999999997],["EWT","2026-03-02","2026-03-03",-0.013926716726297972,74.16,1.2399999999999978],["EWT","2026-05-01","2026-05-05",0.016397257847289293,89.66,1.2636800000000015],["EWT","2026-06-01","2026-06-04",0.0030727815576674367,105.18,1.58975]] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
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