Notes

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"train","mode":"swing","bp":16,"months":36,"block_months":3,"replicates":10000,"ci_pct":[-0.4589240526102851,-0.23863926749952258]} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"train","mode":"swing","bp":6,"months":36,"block_months":3,"replicates":10000,"ci_pct":[-0.25569032051377794,-0.03914910342951025]} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"train","mode":"difference","bp":6,"months":36,"block_months":3,"replicates":10000,"ci_pct":[-0.02106834482306793,0.04549155402183688]} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"train","mode":"long","bp":6,"months":36,"block_months":3,"replicates":10000,"ci_pct":[-0.3516100841644501,0.27512676994006013]} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"2026","mode":"long_minus_partner","sample":85,"clusters":9,"mean_trade_pct":0.013711851529411798,"cluster_ci_pct":[-0.1596535365,0.17456122182185374],"trade_return_corr":0.9809462213013632} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"2026","mode":"swing","bp":16,"clusters":9,"mean_trade_pct":-0.34255364211764705,"cluster_ci_pct":[-0.6230454682891414,-0.045668734305555556],"partner_alpha_ann_pct":-3.9392585894466707,"partner_beta":0.14011696448521246,"partner_alpha_t":-2.364083502292945,"spy_alpha_ann_pct":-4.2735354805875705,"spy_beta":0.04141893142583724,"spy_alpha_t":-2.299066069105291} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"2026","mode":"swing","bp":6,"clusters":9,"mean_trade_pct":-0.14303908482352948,"cluster_ci_pct":[-0.4171793766310903,0.15614330273958316],"partner_alpha_ann_pct":-2.158442797620927,"partner_beta":0.14141396189263025,"partner_alpha_t":-1.394034923480547,"spy_alpha_ann_pct":-2.2126160918552107,"spy_beta":0.042520290731805604,"spy_alpha_t":-1.2756098728276464} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"2026","mode":"long","bp":16,"clusters":9,"mean_trade_pct":0.29037093,"cluster_ci_pct":[-0.19493983450980398,0.9019849711696117],"partner_alpha_ann_pct":0.5585778231939095,"partner_beta":0.8490021389973837,"partner_alpha_t":0.611899412056341,"spy_alpha_ann_pct":-0.5406745877313621,"spy_beta":0.19957072406236348,"spy_alpha_t":-0.14918005933152123} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"2026","mode":"long","bp":6,"clusters":9,"mean_trade_pct":0.4911526044705882,"cluster_ci_pct":[0.006560835209848548,1.0986914202197915],"partner_alpha_ann_pct":0.8716013242913937,"partner_beta":0.8492730592382504,"partner_alpha_t":0.9519980092897373,"spy_alpha_ann_pct":1.54231164257224,"spy_beta":0.2000870231513954,"spy_alpha_t":0.4299285705949343} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"holdout","mode":"long_minus_partner","sample":693,"clusters":72,"mean_trade_pct":0.007491222900432908,"cluster_ci_pct":[-0.026393279374257495,0.04217206729588759],"trade_return_corr":0.9941244354628849} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"holdout","mode":"swing","bp":16,"clusters":72,"mean_trade_pct":-0.3331834616883117,"cluster_ci_pct":[-0.47668631153591734,-0.19635365697084428],"partner_alpha_ann_pct":-2.8979993095317806,"partner_beta":0.11875797036085313,"partner_alpha_t":-4.850756304269734,"spy_alpha_ann_pct":-3.8582489680696863,"spy_beta":0.0416700225378447,"spy_alpha_t":-6.308019835252397} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"holdout","mode":"swing","bp":6,"clusters":72,"mean_trade_pct":-0.13365014546897547,"cluster_ci_pct":[-0.2806124211520592,0.007476593178983395],"partner_alpha_ann_pct":-1.2228002720689168,"partner_beta":0.11826519049296229,"partner_alpha_t":-2.2803192493070616,"spy_alpha_ann_pct":-1.9524409469081996,"spy_beta":0.041488772231681646,"spy_alpha_t":-3.3787780314055684} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"holdout","mode":"long","bp":16,"clusters":72,"mean_trade_pct":-0.2364665652958153,"cluster_ci_pct":[-0.7229820065170448,0.18774029782728296],"partner_alpha_ann_pct":0.04531244474684304,"partner_beta":1.0095990440370268,"partner_alpha_t":0.2288302147791712,"spy_alpha_ann_pct":-7.118611267761066,"spy_beta":0.29215498227189635,"spy_alpha_t":-3.078208442434039} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"holdout","mode":"long","bp":6,"clusters":72,"mean_trade_pct":-0.03673962177489173,"cluster_ci_pct":[-0.513153675956037,0.3891023814555495],"partner_alpha_ann_pct":0.02511296098561664,"partner_beta":1.0096361881789193,"partner_alpha_t":0.1271670573355629,"spy_alpha_ann_pct":-5.202501370293497,"spy_beta":0.29197846581173303,"spy_alpha_t":-2.280420051551583} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"train","mode":"long_minus_partner","sample":327,"clusters":36,"mean_trade_pct":0.01368113406727829,"cluster_ci_pct":[-0.024867949731238927,0.05193554877144565],"trade_return_corr":0.9914921878771422} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"train","mode":"swing","bp":16,"clusters":36,"mean_trade_pct":-0.35132481379204894,"cluster_ci_pct":[-0.48561011519655173,-0.21133190086949216],"partner_alpha_ann_pct":-2.743105857874954,"partner_beta":0.1934262976662752,"partner_alpha_t":-5.405919993944027,"spy_alpha_ann_pct":-3.8360212312079898,"spy_beta":0.04709524796229035,"spy_alpha_t":-6.792424987212025} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"train","mode":"swing","bp":6,"clusters":36,"mean_trade_pct":-0.15182781657492356,"cluster_ci_pct":[-0.2783727168513279,-0.010096837280084682],"partner_alpha_ann_pct":-1.276647394569255,"partner_beta":0.1899953346202118,"partner_alpha_t":-2.6212949406317794,"spy_alpha_ann_pct":-2.006892795230144,"spy_beta":0.0462825886615034,"spy_alpha_t":-3.7157609070042485} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"train","mode":"long","bp":16,"clusters":36,"mean_trade_pct":-0.23580281584097867,"cluster_ci_pct":[-0.5677921408326325,0.12130987739071984],"partner_alpha_ann_pct":0.16549983832796544,"partner_beta":1.002422710534033,"partner_alpha_t":0.9976448619475111,"spy_alpha_ann_pct":-5.45361515932116,"spy_beta":0.24102618300863735,"spy_alpha_t":-4.590544625859767} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozenbase60/2,train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. Bootstrap/regression/simulationmethods inarchivedcode;notindependentprospectiveevidence. {"era":"train","mode":"long","bp":6,"clusters":36,"mean_trade_pct":-0.03607454339449544,"cluster_ci_pct":[-0.3645055585758996,0.31942482275318085],"partner_alpha_ann_pct":0.1614539724391855,"partner_beta":1.0023430060681429,"partner_alpha_t":0.9791204940947305,"spy_alpha_ann_pct":-3.6395125533209947,"spy_beta":0.24067476277770816,"spy_alpha_t":-3.116102685007476} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Columns[pair0–11,loser,entry,parentexit,swingexit,longnet,partnernet,swingnet,hedgenet],returnsdecimals,6bpside. Eras2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate. Allcash-only16bpnet=(1+6bpnet)*0.9980019965049923-1;hedge3%borrowseparateformulaarchived. [[11,"BND","2026-01-13","2026-01-15","2026-01-15",0.0008717745,0.0006429589,0.0007371559,-0.001168822],[11,"BND","2026-01-22","2026-01-26","2026-01-26",0.0022625272,0.0022919527,0.0011547488,-0.0013812024],[11,"BND","2026-02-02","2026-02-04","2026-02-02",-0.0031327995,-0.0033501023,-0.0030844615,-0.0011721831],[11,"BND","2026-02-25","2026-03-06","2026-02-27",-0.0084359773,-0.008387082,0.0010792551,-0.0015900075],[11,"AGG","2026-03-26","2026-04-02","2026-03-27",0.0027196073,0.0025540417,-0.0062525829,-0.0014070935],[11,"AGG","2026-04-08","2026-04-09","2026-04-09",-0.0044610033,-0.0046344184,-0.0044610033,-0.0011522728],[11,"AGG","2026-05-18","2026-05-19","2026-05-18",-0.0058434251,-0.0055122519,-0.003722599,-0.001404191],[11,"AGG","2026-05-20","2026-05-22","2026-05-20",0.0069884603,0.0066245887,0.0020719293,-0.0011048468],[11,"BND","2026-07-07","2026-07-08","2026-07-07",-0.0050567176,-0.005080895,-0.0035895138,-0.0012266682],[11,"AGG","2026-07-13","2026-07-27","2026-07-17",-0.0041777093,-0.0041067956,0.0020615857,-0.0018090739]] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Columns[pair0–11,loser,entry,parentexit,swingexit,longnet,partnernet,swingnet,hedgenet],returnsdecimals,6bpside. Eras2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate. Allcash-only16bpnet=(1+6bpnet)*0.9980019965049923-1;hedge3%borrowseparateformulaarchived. [[9,"XLI","2026-04-21","2026-05-05","2026-04-22",-0.009104289,-0.0077903661,-0.0171073889,-0.0024287387],[9,"XLI","2026-05-06","2026-05-20","2026-05-12",-0.0357017473,-0.0363434057,-0.0157685754,-0.001433209],[9,"XLI","2026-05-28","2026-06-11","2026-06-01",-0.0138963888,-0.0211570979,-0.0153652134,0.0018691796],[9,"VIS","2026-07-06","2026-07-20","2026-07-07",-0.0290190804,-0.0233167408,-0.0170964088,-0.0046149367],[9,"VIS","2026-07-21","2026-08-04","2026-07-24",0.0310285042,0.0329082814,0.0181230573,-0.0027362841],[10,"GLD","2026-01-23","2026-01-26","2026-01-26",0.0266679877,0.0268315785,0.0163267624,-0.0014219709],[10,"GLD","2026-02-02","2026-02-04","2026-02-02",0.0642966033,0.0638373387,-0.0237194163,-0.0010914905],[10,"IAU","2026-02-05","2026-02-06","2026-02-06",0.0130708695,0.013278373,0.0130708695,-0.0013536069],[10,"GLD","2026-03-06","2026-03-09","2026-03-09",-0.0032222649,-0.002914629,-0.0032222649,-0.0014761675],[10,"GLD","2026-05-01","2026-05-06","2026-05-04",0.0195109051,0.019507846,0.002408192,-0.0014163882],[10,"GLD","2026-05-28","2026-06-02","2026-05-28",0.0174754034,0.0176256552,0.0144489836,-0.0014919589],[10,"GLD","2026-06-11","2026-06-12","2026-06-11",0.030236928,0.0304776414,0.0180678502,-0.0013805538],[10,"GLD","2026-08-03","2026-08-06","2026-08-05",0.0511561208,0.0514731373,0.0142087253,-0.0015135324],[10,"GLD","2026-08-19","2026-08-28","2026-08-20",0.0316127684,0.0314545076,0.0123262835,-0.0015103009],[10,"GLD","2026-09-02","2026-09-03","2026-09-03",0.0262876675,0.0261642881,0.0200952767,-0.001195807]] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Columns[pair0–11,loser,entry,parentexit,swingexit,longnet,partnernet,swingnet,hedgenet],returnsdecimals,6bpside. Eras2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate. Allcash-only16bpnet=(1+6bpnet)*0.9980019965049923-1;hedge3%borrowseparateformulaarchived. [[7,"VDE","2026-01-06","2026-01-14","2026-01-06",0.0071604891,0.0041868322,-0.0150657605,-0.000044282],[7,"VDE","2026-02-05","2026-02-10","2026-02-05",0.0314997576,0.0276700324,-0.0175006113,0.0004931898],[7,"VDE","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-19",0.0207560505,0.0183224777,0.0191419333,-0.0002818818],[7,"XLE","2026-03-05","2026-03-13","2026-03-10",0.0159967148,0.0131851736,-0.0206074687,-0.000130794],[7,"XLE","2026-03-19","2026-04-02","2026-03-23",0.033716605,0.0310220588,0.0031953052,-0.000446617],[7,"XLE","2026-04-06","2026-04-20","2026-04-08",-0.0689318901,-0.0666383619,-0.0100700399,-0.0028834841],[7,"XLE","2026-04-28","2026-05-12","2026-04-30",-0.001025,-0.0037690935,0.027611441,-0.0004009287],[7,"VDE","2026-06-08","2026-06-23","2026-06-09",-0.0622989121,-0.0621735872,-0.0201192669,-0.0018425099],[7,"VDE","2026-08-19","2026-08-24","2026-08-24",-0.0090271333,-0.0107414642,-0.0090271333,-0.0005420674],[8,"VHT","2026-02-05","2026-02-20","2026-02-10",0.0077535552,0.0087148568,0.0050991793,-0.0023033332],[8,"XLV","2026-04-15","2026-04-29","2026-04-16",-0.0454751101,-0.0429165476,-0.0144786598,-0.003030331],[8,"XLV","2026-05-05","2026-05-19","2026-05-08",0.0011485642,-0.0037045717,-0.014253987,0.0006541866],[8,"XLV","2026-06-25","2026-07-10","2026-06-25",0.0541418703,0.0581088175,0.0150811065,-0.0038367298],[9,"XLI","2026-01-16","2026-02-02","2026-01-20",-0.0083193483,-0.0135998108,-0.0113966658,0.0007506346],[9,"VIS","2026-03-09","2026-03-23","2026-03-10",-0.0194734363,-0.0224579828,0.0205925729,-0.0002694033]] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Columns[pair0–11,loser,entry,parentexit,swingexit,longnet,partnernet,swingnet,hedgenet],returnsdecimals,6bpside. Eras2017–19train/2020–25holdout/2026separate. Allcash-only16bpnet=(1+6bpnet)*0.9980019965049923-1;hedge3%borrowseparateformulaarchived. [[4,"VWO","2026-01-05","2026-01-20","2026-01-06",0.009702674,0.0121062354,0.0080128711,-0.0030269331],[4,"VWO","2026-01-21","2026-02-04","2026-01-22",0.0173697713,0.0315227401,0.0073844423,-0.0088757299],[4,"VWO","2026-02-17","2026-03-03","2026-02-19",-0.0470971724,-0.046501614,0.0037556057,-0.0020460864],[4,"VWO","2026-04-23","2026-05-07","2026-04-23",0.046379017,0.0770345098,-0.0123552747,-0.0171592829],[4,"VWO","2026-05-08","2026-05-22","2026-05-12",-0.0276400671,-0.020883021,-0.0170637524,-0.0051440684],[4,"VWO","2026-05-27","2026-06-10","2026-05-28",-0.0383084794,-0.0512853399,-0.0142868997,0.0047470688],[4,"EEM","2026-07-30","2026-08-13","2026-07-31",0.0617852721,0.045027066,0.0205421798,0.0065810193],[5,"XLF","2026-01-15","2026-01-30","2026-01-20",-0.0166226217,-0.0149501688,-0.0125530895,-0.0026449061],[5,"VFH","2026-09-02","2026-09-09","2026-09-02",-0.0044794141,-0.005550974,0.009921086,-0.0009489556],[6,"VGT","2026-01-12","2026-01-27","2026-01-14",0.0112844062,0.0141095956,0.005600626,-0.003239077],[6,"VGT","2026-01-28","2026-02-05","2026-01-29",-0.0777681546,-0.080154531,-0.0143253731,-0.0002874329],[6,"VGT","2026-04-30","2026-05-14","2026-04-30",0.1012244595,0.1096045872,-0.0161663,-0.0060344827],[6,"VGT","2026-05-15","2026-06-01","2026-05-18",0.0737041567,0.0901115354,-0.0166431516,-0.0101620944],[6,"VGT","2026-06-02","2026-06-16","2026-06-04",-0.0353003654,-0.0277701689,-0.024468256,-0.0055267382],[6,"VGT","2026-06-18","2026-07-06","2026-06-23",-0.0319934044,-0.0407437854,-0.0274747014,0.002461845]] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

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