ETH/USD C91006 28day hourly block path model demeaned = -0.6895496756047718
Crypto majors2026-09-10 06:07
ComputedSep10~06:06UTC. 10000pathsseed9100601,6hourcontiguousblocks recentJun12–Sep9hourlylogreturns,28day672horizon. Fixed stop1ADR20/target1.5ADR20 ofSep9close;firsthourlyclosecross,closefill proxy(optimistic versusnextopen),fees25bp/side,slip10bp/side. Unconditionalrecentdrift,notmonthsignal-conditionedwinprobability;demeanedsubtractssamplemean. Allfigures={"symbol":"ETH","model":"demeaned","paths":10000,"hours":672,"source_returns":2160,"blocks":2154,"adr_fraction":0.04115184000613932,"mean_hourly_log":0.00018037042360077963,"stop_probability":0.5991,"target_probability":0.3987,"timeout_probability":0.0022,"net_win_probability":0.3995,"net_mean_pct":-0.6895496756047718,"net_p05_pct":-6.466211160934043,"net_median_pct":-4.8558360593489835,"median_exit_hours":86,"risk_bound_notional":176.7305257476141,"approved_notional":0}. risk_bound_notional field is ONLY no-gap nominal risk-budget screen, NOT a hard loss bound; gap/15min/nextopen/+1Rpartialmissing. No approved allocation.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; local simulate.py C91006
ETH/USD C91006 28day hourly block path model empirical = 1.4099305451903257
Crypto majors2026-09-10 06:07
ComputedSep10~06:06UTC. 10000pathsseed9100601,6hourcontiguousblocks recentJun12–Sep9hourlylogreturns,28day672horizon. Fixed stop1ADR20/target1.5ADR20 ofSep9close;firsthourlyclosecross,closefill proxy(optimistic versusnextopen),fees25bp/side,slip10bp/side. Unconditionalrecentdrift,notmonthsignal-conditionedwinprobability;demeanedsubtractssamplemean. Allfigures={"symbol":"ETH","model":"empirical","paths":10000,"hours":672,"source_returns":2160,"blocks":2154,"adr_fraction":0.04115184000613932,"mean_hourly_log":0.00018037042360077963,"stop_probability":0.4119,"target_probability":0.5863,"timeout_probability":0.0018,"net_win_probability":0.5871,"net_mean_pct":1.4099305451903257,"net_p05_pct":-6.323595125623611,"net_median_pct":5.506966393261504,"median_exit_hours":92,"risk_bound_notional":176.7305257476141,"approved_notional":0}. risk_bound_notional field is ONLY no-gap nominal risk-budget screen, NOT a hard loss bound; gap/15min/nextopen/+1Rpartialmissing. No approved allocation.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; local simulate.py C91006
BTC/USD C91006 28day hourly block path model demeaned = -0.6963070551942758
Crypto majors2026-09-10 06:07
ComputedSep10~06:06UTC. 10000pathsseed9100601,6hourcontiguousblocks recentJun12–Sep9hourlylogreturns,28day672horizon. Fixed stop1ADR20/target1.5ADR20 ofSep9close;firsthourlyclosecross,closefill proxy(optimistic versusnextopen),fees25bp/side,slip10bp/side. Unconditionalrecentdrift,notmonthsignal-conditionedwinprobability;demeanedsubtractssamplemean. Allfigures={"symbol":"BTC","model":"demeaned","paths":10000,"hours":672,"source_returns":2160,"blocks":2154,"adr_fraction":0.03319858810137867,"mean_hourly_log":0.00009643745123133238,"stop_probability":0.5963,"target_probability":0.4009,"timeout_probability":0.0028,"net_win_probability":0.403,"net_mean_pct":-0.6963070551942758,"net_p05_pct":-5.194061300092049,"net_median_pct":-4.044230124815451,"median_exit_hours":97,"risk_bound_notional":211.69648990005547,"approved_notional":0}. risk_bound_notional field is ONLY no-gap nominal risk-budget screen, NOT a hard loss bound; gap/15min/nextopen/+1Rpartialmissing. No approved allocation.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; local simulate.py C91006
BTC/USD C91006 28day hourly block path model empirical = 0.6116200894235371
Crypto majors2026-09-10 06:07
ComputedSep10~06:06UTC. 10000pathsseed9100601,6hourcontiguousblocks recentJun12–Sep9hourlylogreturns,28day672horizon. Fixed stop1ADR20/target1.5ADR20 ofSep9close;firsthourlyclosecross,closefill proxy(optimistic versusnextopen),fees25bp/side,slip10bp/side. Unconditionalrecentdrift,notmonthsignal-conditionedwinprobability;demeanedsubtractssamplemean. Allfigures={"symbol":"BTC","model":"empirical","paths":10000,"hours":672,"source_returns":2160,"blocks":2154,"adr_fraction":0.03319858810137867,"mean_hourly_log":0.00009643745123133238,"stop_probability":0.4521,"target_probability":0.5451,"timeout_probability":0.0028,"net_win_probability":0.5467,"net_mean_pct":0.6116200894235371,"net_p05_pct":-5.081414220481899,"net_median_pct":4.279299035664453,"median_exit_hours":101,"risk_bound_notional":211.69648990005547,"approved_notional":0}. risk_bound_notional field is ONLY no-gap nominal risk-budget screen, NOT a hard loss bound; gap/15min/nextopen/+1Rpartialmissing. No approved allocation.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; local simulate.py C91006
05UTC actual supply collector complete; coverage gaps retained = 21
Supply chain2026-09-10 06:07
Queried list_jobs06UTC. Job173 actual05:15:53.091UTC payload complete END21/21, exit0, next06:15:48; substantive hashes match prior04UTC except challenge content. Bombardier challenge/CENTCOM HTTPError retained; no actual new cash disclosure established. Job18 actual05:01 report periodAug23-29; predatesSep1 quota and cannot measure post-policy uptake. All five active supply collectors preserved; no pending holdings/orders in supplied context and closedledgerN2 operator exits. No due supply monitor at06UTC; armedFTK/BWEN/GD12:30 and later macro/conference reviews remain.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev
December2 independent open-price control repeat = 1029.920265
XLE September STEO current vintage versus stale search excerpt = 2
Supply chain2026-09-10 06:04
Read06UTC Sep10. Original agency Sep9 release/cutoffSep3; search snippet was August11 vintage. Current forecast distillate stocks below100m barrels September, diesel crack aboveUSD2/gallon Aug-Nov; assumed restoration Hormuz traffic supports subsequent easing. Forecast not observed margin or Valero realized dollars. Independent of issuer but same macro mechanism, not corroboration of company profits.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/petro_prod.php
VLO 2025 10K purchased feedstock and supplier/logistics risk
Supply chain2026-09-10 06:04
FiledFeb25 2026; operator original risk disclosure retrieved SEC CLI. Nearly all primary feedstocks purchased before finished-product sale; cheaper-grade differential important. Non-waterborne plants more transport-constrained; alternative supply may be inadequate or expensive. Critical catalysts/chemicals sourced globally. Texas electricity scarcity pricing and water challenges can offset product premiums. Integrated rivals can offset downstream losses with own production. No quantified top-supplier share identified in Item1A; not evidence of no concentration.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035002/000162828026011499/vlo-20251231.htm
VLO Q2 cash bridge and refining margin; July30 issuer, period June30 = 4139
Supply chain2026-09-10 06:04
Issuer original, interested party. USDm: CFO5580-WC706-other DGD owner389=adjusted4485; attributable investments346=>4139 adjusted post-investment proxy, not GAAP FCF. Consolidated5580-350=5230. Total refining margin6342;4065 is Gulf Coast only, no contradiction. Gulf margin24.42/bbl versus11.78 prior, throughput1829 vs1841kb/d. Total operating income4470; total throughput~3mb/d. Q3 StCharles230m project expected, not actual startup. Tables verified; historical Q2 not current daily netback.
https://investorvalero.com/news/news-details/2026/Valero-Energy-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx
IPHA Collector172 actual footer and current primary content audit = 15
McConnell/Xu March-April2008 pp49-51: day-1 through day+3; historical CRSP1926-2005 and1987-2005. Author-hosted original,closest research source,not current execution evidence. Paper says measured volume/equity-fund flows do NOT explain effect; payroll-flow cause remains hypothesis. Our fixed last-day OPEN excludes first overnight return included in close-to-close research; adaptation must be labelled. US-listed countryETFs use US sessions andUSD,not local indices.
https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf
06UTC primary data and cost conventions = 0.25
Crypto majors2026-09-10 06:03
Verified Sep10~06:03UTC. Alpaca says bars include quote midpoints even with zero trade volume; own-exchange data since v1beta3. Fee tier0-100k USD30day: maker0.15%,taker0.25%, charged received asset. Our25bp/side is assumption consistent published lowest tier,not actual account fee ledger. Actualstored170notes1784/1813/1814/1819/1824contain numeric payload and END;05:01:48→05:31:38 gap29m50s.171funding1283chars/END05:15.06:01quote cutoff34chars is no observation. Recent Sep9daily/hourly3/3pass cannotclear historicalfaults. No orders.
query_research fund=crypto kind=notes ; list_jobs fund=crypto ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-crypto-data-1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
AVAV QPAIR91004 successor remote execution verified, six complete panels = 6