Notes

DARDEN06 Sep10 frozen audit1832; measured inputs/results, retrospective execution diagnostic; not independent future observations. [{"event":"2023-09-21","split":"training","mode":"green","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-0.5607954147467398,"actions":[{"t":"2023-09-14T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":135.6,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-09-20T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":135.38,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.3505940905470623,"prior_ADR":2.1690000000000027},{"event":"2023-12-15","split":"training","mode":"green","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-1.6829778602501344,"actions":[{"t":"2023-12-08T09:30:00-05:00","fraction":1,"price":147.41,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-12-08T11:30:00-05:00","fraction":-1,"price":145.51,"reason":"stop"}],"R":-1.3161154715091354,"prior_ADR":1.8850000000000022},{"event":"2024-03-21","split":"training","mode":"green","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-1.9525627306003712,"actions":[{"t":"2024-03-14T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":160.94,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-03-14T10:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":158.43,"reason":"stop"}],"R":-1.2988032480381198,"prior_ADR":2.419500000000005},{"event":"2024-06-20","split":"training","mode":"green","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":2.9213087631013046,"actions":[{"t":"2024-06-12T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":137.38,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-06-17T09:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":141.96,"reason":"target"}],"R":1.8571466815125277,"prior_ADR":2.161}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"period":"2021Jan4-Sep9 2026","bars_each":1427,"symbols":["VLO","MPC","PSX","XOM","CVX","EOG","XLE","SPY"],"duplicate":0,"missing_in_aligned_panel":0,"ohlc_invalid":0,"sha":{"VLO":"5882b83a8ca52763f2c0ba1ea40211030e1bf1b3df1554a955b5778cc1ea6b06","MPC":"3dff349d1b2fb5b001ffccd8e0f10a08c4cc2b95471cfe03b4f75ad96ed9858a","PSX":"a856bc0c1dd15ea162437c43ed35eb66a5c301f34f36bb75af354ef350a03f59","XOM":"8d769d115527ca7221d40c1d0ec18b4934bb3455ef479217bfdfa5c39e5db9c1","CVX":"f0df6087ca85870dd2723bc9835d7f4943b579435fb87722cba17372ec733ba8","EOG":"80068049e4947db188eee18b6bbbbfc8ca2db2ebd7f0479401755ad9b53a1aab","XLE":"11ad10f2e309437a5ab3a29ace92f052b892f7df810bc41cf28c3c70cdf54330","SPY":"e64181e5881404cb59574b280d0104f75a182fc1e3c94b1e452af25ca00e9f15"},"note":"Pagination exhausted separately per symbol; commondates; no independent historical vendor validation; 2021warmup excludes returns before2022."} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

DARDEN06 Sep10 frozen audit1832; measured inputs/results, retrospective execution diagnostic; not independent future observations. [{"event":"2022-09-22","split":"training","mode":"green","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":2.7893852920932494,"actions":[{"t":"2022-09-15T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":114.17,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-09-21T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":-0.5,"price":117.29,"reason":"partial"},{"t":"2022-09-21T12:00:00-04:00","fraction":-0.5,"price":118.36,"reason":"target"}],"R":1.1503128726685423,"prior_ADR":2.768500000000003},{"event":"2022-12-16","split":"training","mode":"green","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":0.9593841672588699,"actions":[{"t":"2022-12-09T09:30:00-05:00","fraction":1,"price":126.83,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-12-13T09:30:00-05:00","fraction":-0.5,"price":130.56,"reason":"partial"},{"t":"2022-12-15T09:30:00-05:00","fraction":-0.5,"price":126.56,"reason":"breakeven_stop"}],"R":0.4805635621383978,"prior_ADR":2.5320000000000027},{"event":"2023-03-23","split":"training","mode":"green","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":2.203276188655323,"actions":[{"t":"2023-03-16T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":131.08,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-03-16T11:00:00-04:00","fraction":-0.5,"price":134.01,"reason":"partial"},{"t":"2023-03-20T11:00:00-04:00","fraction":-0.5,"price":135,"reason":"target"}],"R":1.137925306575808,"prior_ADR":2.5379999999999976},{"event":"2023-06-22","split":"training","mode":"green","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-0.5850731236515805,"actions":[{"t":"2023-06-14T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":150.04,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-06-21T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":149.76,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.35382656780605815,"prior_ADR":2.481000000000003}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all

DARDEN06 Sep10 frozen audit1832; measured inputs/results, retrospective execution diagnostic; not independent future observations. [{"event":"2024-09-19","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":2.032591226587388,"actions":[{"t":"2024-09-12T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":148.4,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-09-17T11:15:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":152.48,"reason":"target"}],"R":1.1248798733006455,"prior_ADR":2.6815000000000024},{"event":"2024-12-19","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":-2.9963112323262098,"actions":[{"t":"2024-12-12T09:30:00-05:00","fraction":1,"price":158.97,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-12-18T09:45:00-05:00","fraction":-1,"price":155.29,"reason":"stop"}],"R":-1.4291137011788124,"prior_ADR":3.3329999999999957},{"event":"2022-03-24","split":"training","mode":"green","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":3.403013297664126,"actions":[{"t":"2022-03-17T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":109.89,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-03-18T15:15:00-04:00","fraction":-0.5,"price":114.77,"reason":"partial"},{"t":"2022-03-23T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-0.5,"price":113.4,"reason":"time"}],"R":0.7714432826824358,"prior_ADR":4.8475},{"event":"2022-06-23","split":"training","mode":"green","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":0.02088652500302768,"actions":[{"t":"2022-06-15T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":99.58,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-06-22T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":100,"reason":"time"}],"R":0.005997347634952412,"prior_ADR":3.468}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"seed":91006,"method":"diagnose.py; prereg1827; 2022-24train/2025-Sep9holdout; historical or conditional resampling NOT calibrated future odds; percentages labeled, fractions otherwise","data":[{"symbol":"VLO","positive":5,"cells":9,"min_return":-8.111785513110808,"max_return":43.776239144498376},{"symbol":"MPC","positive":6,"cells":9,"min_return":-22.54983292110316,"max_return":19.894665449762687},{"symbol":"PSX","positive":3,"cells":9,"min_return":-20.48358461552436,"max_return":4.285472307418204}]} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

DARDEN06 Sep10 frozen audit1832; measured inputs/results, retrospective execution diagnostic; not independent future observations. [{"event":"2023-09-21","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":-0.8586669658547263,"actions":[{"t":"2023-09-14T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":135.6,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-09-20T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":135.38,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.5368153092203815,"prior_ADR":2.1690000000000027},{"event":"2023-12-15","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":-1.9774878978880306,"actions":[{"t":"2023-12-08T09:30:00-05:00","fraction":1,"price":147.41,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-12-08T11:30:00-05:00","fraction":-1,"price":145.51,"reason":"stop"}],"R":-1.5464270081043727,"prior_ADR":1.8850000000000022},{"event":"2024-03-21","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":-2.2462652229263136,"actions":[{"t":"2024-03-14T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":160.94,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-03-14T10:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":158.43,"reason":"stop"}],"R":-1.494167906500352,"prior_ADR":2.419500000000005},{"event":"2024-06-20","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":2.6130065194219343,"actions":[{"t":"2024-06-12T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":137.38,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-06-17T09:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":141.96,"reason":"target"}],"R":1.6611514837491224,"prior_ADR":2.161}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"seed":91006,"method":"diagnose.py; prereg1827; 2022-24train/2025-Sep9holdout; historical or conditional resampling NOT calibrated future odds; percentages labeled, fractions otherwise","data":[{"symbol":"VLO","close":388.95,"adr20":9.978725,"sma50":319.43240000000003,"ret3":4.925948906094035,"relative20":12.887367622060575,"vol20":24.141141508770193,"cap_whole_shares":0,"stop_reference":378.971275,"target_reference":403.9180875,"signal":false},{"symbol":"MPC","close":399.44,"adr20":10.187355000000002,"sma50":327.0682,"ret3":3.0254571715973233,"relative20":11.869545150025562,"vol20":21.965331161222576,"cap_whole_shares":0,"stop_reference":389.252645,"target_reference":414.7210325,"signal":false},{"symbol":"PSX","close":260.78,"adr20":6.576780000000002,"sma50":217.0564,"ret3":2.4032042723631353,"relative20":9.65881070312211,"vol20":22.343499874567904,"cap_whole_shares":0,"stop_reference":254.20321999999996,"target_reference":270.64516999999995,"signal":false}]} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

DARDEN06 Sep10 frozen audit1832; measured inputs/results, retrospective execution diagnostic; not independent future observations. [{"event":"2022-09-22","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":2.946808936586187,"actions":[{"t":"2022-09-15T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":114.17,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-09-21T12:00:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":118.36,"reason":"target"}],"R":1.215232711901913,"prior_ADR":2.768500000000003},{"event":"2022-12-16","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":-0.9324439235626536,"actions":[{"t":"2022-12-09T09:30:00-05:00","fraction":1,"price":126.83,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-12-15T15:45:00-05:00","fraction":-1,"price":126.53,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.4670689685049416,"prior_ADR":2.5320000000000027},{"event":"2023-03-23","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":2.2721226046449994,"actions":[{"t":"2023-03-16T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":131.08,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-03-20T11:00:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":135,"reason":"target"}],"R":1.1734823917134234,"prior_ADR":2.5379999999999976},{"event":"2023-06-22","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":-0.882871950537345,"actions":[{"t":"2023-06-14T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":150.04,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-06-21T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":149.76,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.5339222388497504,"prior_ADR":2.481000000000003}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"seed":91006,"method":"diagnose.py; prereg1827; 2022-24train/2025-Sep9holdout; historical or conditional resampling NOT calibrated future odds; percentages labeled, fractions otherwise","data":[{"symbol":"VLO","paths":10000,"stop_pct":46.72,"target_pct":48.870000000000005,"time_pct":4.41,"ambiguous_pct":0.02,"mean_pct":0.20754791429441283,"p05_pct":-4.791610551835059},{"symbol":"MPC","paths":10000,"stop_pct":42.120000000000005,"target_pct":52.42,"time_pct":5.46,"ambiguous_pct":0.09,"mean_pct":0.5773549620636369,"p05_pct":-3.649437682662466},{"symbol":"PSX","paths":10000,"stop_pct":44.2,"target_pct":48.67,"time_pct":7.13,"ambiguous_pct":0,"mean_pct":0.38223007787612456,"p05_pct":-3.6300795779223587}]} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

DARDEN06 Sep10 frozen audit1832; measured inputs/results, retrospective execution diagnostic; not independent future observations. [{"event":"2024-06-20","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":2.9213087631013046,"actions":[{"t":"2024-06-12T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":137.38,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-06-17T09:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":141.96,"reason":"target"}],"R":1.8571466815125277,"prior_ADR":2.161},{"event":"2024-09-19","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":2.3391496042295623,"actions":[{"t":"2024-09-12T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":148.4,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-09-17T11:15:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":152.48,"reason":"target"}],"R":1.294535898816583,"prior_ADR":2.6815000000000024},{"event":"2024-12-19","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-2.7048622639481934,"actions":[{"t":"2024-12-12T09:30:00-05:00","fraction":1,"price":158.97,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-12-18T09:45:00-05:00","fraction":-1,"price":155.29,"reason":"stop"}],"R":-1.2901048727868132,"prior_ADR":3.3329999999999957},{"event":"2022-03-24","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":2.4742657025586423,"actions":[{"t":"2022-03-17T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":109.89,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-03-23T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":113.4,"reason":"time"}],"R":0.5609016153773475,"prior_ADR":4.8475},{"event":"2022-06-23","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":-0.2787274626254832,"actions":[{"t":"2022-06-15T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":99.58,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-06-22T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":100,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.08003368145399545,"prior_ADR":3.468}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"seed":91006,"method":"diagnose.py; prereg1827; 2022-24train/2025-Sep9holdout; historical or conditional resampling NOT calibrated future odds; percentages labeled, fractions otherwise","data":[{"f":0,"paths":10000,"trades":20,"terminal_p05_p50_p95_pct":[0,0,0],"loss_probability":0,"dd_gt10_probability":0},{"f":0.05,"paths":10000,"trades":20,"terminal_p05_p50_p95_pct":[-1.8194028644074285,0.3835123269734564,2.997701557289935],"loss_probability":0.3944,"dd_gt10_probability":0},{"f":0.1,"paths":10000,"trades":20,"terminal_p05_p50_p95_pct":[-3.5876794329557824,0.8421548143111912,6.016171319252294],"loss_probability":0.387,"dd_gt10_probability":0},{"f":0.25,"paths":10000,"trades":20,"terminal_p05_p50_p95_pct":[-8.737588965085639,1.9699456863705889,15.762671814973729],"loss_probability":0.3935,"dd_gt10_probability":0.0615}]} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

DARDEN06 Sep10 frozen audit1832; measured inputs/results, retrospective execution diagnostic; not independent future observations. [{"event":"2023-06-22","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-0.5850731236515583,"actions":[{"t":"2023-06-14T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":150.04,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-06-21T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":149.76,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.3538265678060447,"prior_ADR":2.481000000000003},{"event":"2023-09-21","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-0.5607954147467398,"actions":[{"t":"2023-09-14T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":135.6,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-09-20T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":135.38,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.3505940905470623,"prior_ADR":2.1690000000000027},{"event":"2023-12-15","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-1.6829778602501455,"actions":[{"t":"2023-12-08T09:30:00-05:00","fraction":1,"price":147.41,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-12-08T11:30:00-05:00","fraction":-1,"price":145.51,"reason":"stop"}],"R":-1.316115471509144,"prior_ADR":1.8850000000000022},{"event":"2024-03-21","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-1.9525627306003712,"actions":[{"t":"2024-03-14T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":160.94,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-03-14T10:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":158.43,"reason":"stop"}],"R":-1.2988032480381198,"prior_ADR":2.419500000000005}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all

DARDEN06 Sep10 frozen audit1832; measured inputs/results, retrospective execution diagnostic; not independent future observations. [{"event":"2022-03-24","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":2.782151097472174,"actions":[{"t":"2022-03-17T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":109.89,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-03-23T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":113.4,"reason":"time"}],"R":0.6306974401262861,"prior_ADR":4.8475},{"event":"2022-06-23","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":0.02088652500302768,"actions":[{"t":"2022-06-15T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":99.58,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-06-22T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":100,"reason":"time"}],"R":0.005997347634952412,"prior_ADR":3.468},{"event":"2022-09-22","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":3.256114094395568,"actions":[{"t":"2022-09-15T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":114.17,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-09-21T12:00:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":118.36,"reason":"target"}],"R":1.3427868743259583,"prior_ADR":2.768500000000003},{"event":"2022-12-16","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-0.6347940363778282,"actions":[{"t":"2022-12-09T09:30:00-05:00","fraction":1,"price":126.83,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-12-15T15:45:00-05:00","fraction":-1,"price":126.53,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.3179736478428114,"prior_ADR":2.5320000000000027},{"event":"2023-03-23","split":"training","mode":"barrier","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":2.579400657733677,"actions":[{"t":"2023-03-16T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":131.08,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-03-20T11:00:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":135,"reason":"target"}],"R":1.3321821836711218,"prior_ADR":2.5379999999999976}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"seed":91006,"method":"diagnose.py; prereg1827; 2022-24train/2025-Sep9holdout; historical or conditional resampling NOT calibrated future odds; percentages labeled, fractions otherwise","data":{"n":87,"counts":{"stop":33,"target":32,"time":12,"stopgap":7,"targetgap":3},"ambiguous":0,"mean_pct":0.11643735535232498,"win_pct":47.12643678160919,"worst_pct":-4.901892109512451,"max_loss_R":2.171378530754846}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

DARDEN06 Sep10 frozen audit1832; measured inputs/results, retrospective execution diagnostic; not independent future observations. [{"event":"2023-12-15","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":0.1714490384444156,"actions":[{"t":"2023-12-08T09:30:00-05:00","fraction":1,"price":147.41,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-12-14T15:45:00-05:00","fraction":-1,"price":148.7,"reason":"time"}],"R":0.13407587669544443,"prior_ADR":1.8850000000000022},{"event":"2024-03-21","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":-0.5679835932245969,"actions":[{"t":"2024-03-14T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":160.94,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-03-20T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":161.15,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.37781061993621173,"prior_ADR":2.419500000000005},{"event":"2024-06-20","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":2.0925686165339075,"actions":[{"t":"2024-06-12T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":137.38,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-06-18T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":141.24,"reason":"time"}],"R":1.3302965133707922,"prior_ADR":2.161},{"event":"2024-09-19","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":0.2794079303278352,"actions":[{"t":"2024-09-12T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":148.4,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-09-18T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":149.86,"reason":"time"}],"R":0.15463038172907217,"prior_ADR":2.6815000000000024},{"event":"2024-12-19","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":-4.951501816670456,"actions":[{"t":"2024-12-12T09:30:00-05:00","fraction":1,"price":158.97,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-12-18T15:45:00-05:00","fraction":-1,"price":152.16,"reason":"time"}],"R":-2.361656897078018,"prior_ADR":3.3329999999999957}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all

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DARDEN06 Sep10 frozen audit1832; measured inputs/results, retrospective execution diagnostic; not independent future observations. [{"event":"2022-12-16","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":-0.9324439235626425,"actions":[{"t":"2022-12-09T09:30:00-05:00","fraction":1,"price":126.83,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-12-15T15:45:00-05:00","fraction":-1,"price":126.53,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.46706896850493607,"prior_ADR":2.5320000000000027},{"event":"2023-03-23","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":3.249389553978266,"actions":[{"t":"2023-03-16T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":131.08,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-03-22T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":136.29,"reason":"time"}],"R":1.6782111218891709,"prior_ADR":2.5379999999999976},{"event":"2023-06-22","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":-0.882871950537345,"actions":[{"t":"2023-06-14T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":150.04,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-06-21T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":149.76,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.5339222388497504,"prior_ADR":2.481000000000003},{"event":"2023-09-21","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":-0.8586669658547263,"actions":[{"t":"2023-09-14T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":135.6,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-09-20T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":135.38,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.5368153092203815,"prior_ADR":2.1690000000000027}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"seed":91006,"method":"diagnose.py; prereg1827; 2022-24train/2025-Sep9holdout; historical or conditional resampling NOT calibrated future odds; percentages labeled, fractions otherwise","data":[{"split":"train","spyup":false,"highvol":false,"n":0,"mean":null,"win":null},{"split":"train","spyup":false,"highvol":true,"n":32,"mean":0.17921816244955457,"win":53.125},{"split":"train","spyup":true,"highvol":false,"n":52,"mean":0.48466915729127036,"win":50},{"split":"train","spyup":true,"highvol":true,"n":17,"mean":-2.7940633566990383,"win":29.411764705882355},{"split":"test","spyup":false,"highvol":false,"n":2,"mean":7.779988252088151,"win":100},{"split":"test","spyup":false,"highvol":true,"n":4,"mean":-2.2830511897953447,"win":25},{"split":"test","spyup":true,"highvol":false,"n":61,"mean":0.16599565073850897,"win":52.459016393442624},{"split":"test","spyup":true,"highvol":true,"n":20,"mean":1.1096241716189033,"win":55.00000000000001}]} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

DARDEN06 Sep10 frozen audit1832; measured inputs/results, retrospective execution diagnostic; not independent future observations. [{"event":"2024-09-19","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":0.5806988437161653,"actions":[{"t":"2024-09-12T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":148.4,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-09-18T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":149.86,"reason":"time"}],"R":0.32137127878977756,"prior_ADR":2.6815000000000024},{"event":"2024-12-19","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-4.665927246328505,"actions":[{"t":"2024-12-12T09:30:00-05:00","fraction":1,"price":158.97,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-12-18T15:45:00-05:00","fraction":-1,"price":152.16,"reason":"time"}],"R":-2.225449908037334,"prior_ADR":3.3329999999999957},{"event":"2022-03-24","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":2.4742657025586423,"actions":[{"t":"2022-03-17T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":109.89,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-03-23T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":113.4,"reason":"time"}],"R":0.5609016153773475,"prior_ADR":4.8475},{"event":"2022-06-23","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":-0.2787274626254832,"actions":[{"t":"2022-06-15T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":99.58,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-06-22T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":100,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.08003368145399545,"prior_ADR":3.468},{"event":"2022-09-22","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.0025,"return_pct":0.7984596794607501,"actions":[{"t":"2022-09-15T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":114.17,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-09-21T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":115.89,"reason":"time"}],"R":0.329276292591778,"prior_ADR":2.768500000000003}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"seed":91006,"method":"diagnose.py; prereg1827; 2022-24train/2025-Sep9holdout; historical or conditional resampling NOT calibrated future odds; percentages labeled, fractions otherwise","data":{"n":87,"months":18,"mean":0.4453562054301383,"ci":[-0.8737899265119611,1.9169265329539529],"p_boot_nonpositive":0.2625,"win":0.5287356321839081,"avgwin":0.035407385028035455,"avgloss":0.030275117379644154}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

DARDEN06 Sep10 frozen audit1832; measured inputs/results, retrospective execution diagnostic; not independent future observations. [{"event":"2023-06-22","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-0.5850731236515583,"actions":[{"t":"2023-06-14T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":150.04,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-06-21T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":149.76,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.3538265678060447,"prior_ADR":2.481000000000003},{"event":"2023-09-21","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-0.5607954147467398,"actions":[{"t":"2023-09-14T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":135.6,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-09-20T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":135.38,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.3505940905470623,"prior_ADR":2.1690000000000027},{"event":"2023-12-15","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":0.472415587800179,"actions":[{"t":"2023-12-08T09:30:00-05:00","fraction":1,"price":147.41,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-12-14T15:45:00-05:00","fraction":-1,"price":148.7,"reason":"time"}],"R":0.3694365082102085,"prior_ADR":1.8850000000000022},{"event":"2024-03-21","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-0.2692386797718216,"actions":[{"t":"2024-03-14T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":160.94,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-03-20T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":161.15,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.1790918500619007,"prior_ADR":2.419500000000005},{"event":"2024-06-20","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":2.3993071971007973,"actions":[{"t":"2024-06-12T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":137.38,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2024-06-18T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":141.24,"reason":"time"}],"R":1.525297652650197,"prior_ADR":2.161}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all

DARDEN06 Sep10 frozen audit1832; measured inputs/results, retrospective execution diagnostic; not independent future observations. [{"event":"2022-03-24","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":2.782151097472174,"actions":[{"t":"2022-03-17T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":109.89,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-03-23T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":113.4,"reason":"time"}],"R":0.6306974401262861,"prior_ADR":4.8475},{"event":"2022-06-23","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":0.02088652500302768,"actions":[{"t":"2022-06-15T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":99.58,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-06-22T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":100,"reason":"time"}],"R":0.005997347634952412,"prior_ADR":3.468},{"event":"2022-09-22","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":1.1013100912428353,"actions":[{"t":"2022-09-15T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":114.17,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-09-21T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":115.89,"reason":"time"}],"R":0.4541685863001422,"prior_ADR":2.768500000000003},{"event":"2022-12-16","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-0.6347940363778393,"actions":[{"t":"2022-12-09T09:30:00-05:00","fraction":1,"price":126.83,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2022-12-15T15:45:00-05:00","fraction":-1,"price":126.53,"reason":"time"}],"R":-0.317973647842817,"prior_ADR":2.5320000000000027},{"event":"2023-03-23","split":"training","mode":"time","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":3.559603819574253,"actions":[{"t":"2023-03-16T09:30:00-04:00","fraction":1,"price":131.08,"reason":"entry"},{"t":"2023-03-22T15:45:00-04:00","fraction":-1,"price":136.29,"reason":"time"}],"R":1.8384273785255854,"prior_ADR":2.5379999999999976}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all

DARDEN06 Sep10 frozen audit1832; measured inputs/results, retrospective execution diagnostic; not independent future observations. [{"event":"2026-06-25","split":"holdout","entry_date":"2026-06-17","exit_date":"2026-06-24","entry":206.08,"daily_entry":206.08,"daily_exit":211.74,"exit1545":212.25,"adr":5.010999999999996,"adr_pct":2.431579968944097,"atr_pct":2.5726961469836502,"trend":true,"momentum":true,"market":true,"liquidity":207508465.095,"bars":130,"excluded_bars":19,"source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/940944/000094094426000016/exhibit991-q4fy26.htm"}] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/940944/000094094426000016/exhibit991-q4fy26.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all