Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
TLX TLX08 diagnostic L10 train slip0.0025 = -22.43991591303279
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 08:08
{"lookback":10,"period":"train","slippage":0.0025,"return":-22.43991591303279,"drawdown":27.33660335739916,"win_rate":35.294117647058826,"sample":17,"avg_win_pct":6.266199768967788,"avg_loss_pct":5.411091086384453,"CI_low":-4.1964199057267955,"CI_high":1.7551904522183113,"open_trades":0,"first":"2024-11-14 00:00:00","last":"2025-12-31 00:00:00"} Genericdaily,notFDAeventtest; signalpriorclose/fillnextopen,5%/7.5%exits,5bpfees,forcedfinalopen,flatboundary;12cells/nowinnerselection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
TLX TLX08 diagnostic L10 train slip0.001 = -19.84024975193242
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 08:08
{"lookback":10,"period":"train","slippage":0.001,"return":-19.84024975193242,"drawdown":26.349959588513137,"win_rate":35.294117647058826,"sample":17,"avg_win_pct":6.425514753636582,"avg_loss_pct":5.203132982538432,"CI_low":-3.896422740585216,"CI_high":1.9714915866161344,"open_trades":0,"first":"2024-11-14 00:00:00","last":"2025-12-31 00:00:00"} Genericdaily,notFDAeventtest; signalpriorclose/fillnextopen,5%/7.5%exits,5bpfees,forcedfinalopen,flatboundary;12cells/nowinnerselection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
TLX TLX08 diagnostic L5 holdout slip0.0025 = 11.035221653613249
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 08:08
{"lookback":5,"period":"holdout","slippage":0.0025,"return":11.035221653613249,"drawdown":23.987415834639624,"win_rate":47.368421052631575,"sample":19,"avg_win_pct":6.585399392021135,"avg_loss_pct":4.490824658394208,"CI_low":-2.09236963558057,"CI_high":3.5902000614302314,"open_trades":0,"first":"2026-01-02 00:00:00","last":"2026-09-09 00:00:00"} Genericdaily,notFDAeventtest; signalpriorclose/fillnextopen,5%/7.5%exits,5bpfees,forcedfinalopen,flatboundary;12cells/nowinnerselection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
TLX TLX08 diagnostic L5 holdout slip0.001 = 15.447524087002803
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 08:08
{"lookback":5,"period":"holdout","slippage":0.001,"return":15.447524087002803,"drawdown":22.839844263337696,"win_rate":52.63157894736842,"sample":19,"avg_win_pct":6.113784031411207,"avg_loss_pct":4.762309650127334,"CI_low":-1.8946911346538549,"CI_high":3.7832755187028755,"open_trades":0,"first":"2026-01-02 00:00:00","last":"2026-09-09 00:00:00"} Genericdaily,notFDAeventtest; signalpriorclose/fillnextopen,5%/7.5%exits,5bpfees,forcedfinalopen,flatboundary;12cells/nowinnerselection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
TLX TLX08 diagnostic L5 train slip0.0025 = -25.27301075410969
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 08:08
{"lookback":5,"period":"train","slippage":0.0025,"return":-25.27301075410969,"drawdown":35.725350145545974,"win_rate":38.23529411764706,"sample":34,"avg_win_pct":4.286932123423172,"avg_loss_pct":3.8481417462564074,"CI_low":-2.312365456855734,"CI_high":0.8967630214446126,"open_trades":0,"first":"2024-11-14 00:00:00","last":"2025-12-31 00:00:00"} Genericdaily,notFDAeventtest; signalpriorclose/fillnextopen,5%/7.5%exits,5bpfees,forcedfinalopen,flatboundary;12cells/nowinnerselection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
TLX TLX08 diagnostic L5 train slip0.001 = -19.45674878743425
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 08:08
{"lookback":5,"period":"train","slippage":0.001,"return":-19.45674878743425,"drawdown":31.855437309371894,"win_rate":41.17647058823529,"sample":34,"avg_win_pct":4.184904907002829,"avg_loss_pct":3.8108567500998287,"CI_low":-2.122309394677454,"CI_high":1.1071798306338465,"open_trades":0,"first":"2024-11-14 00:00:00","last":"2025-12-31 00:00:00"} Genericdaily,notFDAeventtest; signalpriorclose/fillnextopen,5%/7.5%exits,5bpfees,forcedfinalopen,flatboundary;12cells/nowinnerselection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
TLX TLX08 diagnostic L3 holdout slip0.0025 = -17.16167221326927
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 08:08
{"lookback":3,"period":"holdout","slippage":0.0025,"return":-17.16167221326927,"drawdown":30.24497762273559,"win_rate":37.5,"sample":24,"avg_win_pct":5.6371294711445925,"avg_loss_pct":4.381642832221725,"CI_low":-2.8348852493481655,"CI_high":1.6344226977863838,"open_trades":0,"first":"2026-01-02 00:00:00","last":"2026-09-09 00:00:00"} Genericdaily,notFDAeventtest; signalpriorclose/fillnextopen,5%/7.5%exits,5bpfees,forcedfinalopen,flatboundary;12cells/nowinnerselection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
TLX TLX08 diagnostic L3 holdout slip0.001 = -12.830520328652284
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 08:08
{"lookback":3,"period":"holdout","slippage":0.001,"return":-12.830520328652284,"drawdown":29.29782456690546,"win_rate":37.5,"sample":24,"avg_win_pct":5.846434713518202,"avg_loss_pct":4.16977312259483,"CI_low":-2.596962046800558,"CI_high":1.9246617221794395,"open_trades":0,"first":"2026-01-02 00:00:00","last":"2026-09-09 00:00:00"} Genericdaily,notFDAeventtest; signalpriorclose/fillnextopen,5%/7.5%exits,5bpfees,forcedfinalopen,flatboundary;12cells/nowinnerselection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
TLX TLX08 diagnostic L3 train slip0.0025 = -44.673557879676686
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 08:08
{"lookback":3,"period":"train","slippage":0.0025,"return":-44.673557879676686,"drawdown":49.19645629803505,"win_rate":26.82926829268293,"sample":41,"avg_win_pct":5.385850004481141,"avg_loss_pct":3.756993342664964,"CI_low":-2.837577464963288,"CI_high":0.29246051315031674,"open_trades":0,"first":"2024-11-14 00:00:00","last":"2025-12-31 00:00:00"} Genericdaily,notFDAeventtest; signalpriorclose/fillnextopen,5%/7.5%exits,5bpfees,forcedfinalopen,flatboundary;12cells/nowinnerselection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
TLX TLX08 diagnostic L3 train slip0.001 = -39.28451613026607
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 08:08
{"lookback":3,"period":"train","slippage":0.001,"return":-39.28451613026607,"drawdown":45.73171021642048,"win_rate":29.268292682926827,"sample":41,"avg_win_pct":5.1703809665859914,"avg_loss_pct":3.6656585912530284,"CI_low":-2.620571234606088,"CI_high":0.51189815435965,"open_trades":0,"first":"2024-11-14 00:00:00","last":"2025-12-31 00:00:00"} Genericdaily,notFDAeventtest; signalpriorclose/fillnextopen,5%/7.5%exits,5bpfees,forcedfinalopen,flatboundary;12cells/nowinnerselection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
TLX TLX08 fundamental
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 08:08
ComputedSep10~08UTC fromcompletedbars throughSep9/H1filing. {"OCF_m":23.036,"collaboration_m":40,"OCF_ex_receipt_m":-16.964,"FCF_ppe_intang_m":8.248000000000001,"FCF_ex_receipt_m":-31.752,"FCF_lease_otherassets_m":-0.1999999999999993,"cash_m":251.91,"OCF_change_pct":29.787593667248878,"customer_receipts_change_pct":19.05323853174017,"net_borrowing_cash_m":121} https://telixpharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/H1-2026-Interim-Report.pdf
TLX TLX08 simulation
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 08:08
ComputedSep10~08UTC fromcompletedbars throughSep9/H1filing. {"seed":2026091008,"paths":20000,"horizon_trades":20,"empirical_quarter_kelly_capital":0.6389151005180169,"approved_kelly":0,"p_loss20":0.3533,"terminal_p5":34.26864176012911,"terminal_median":54.770788396390515,"terminal_p95":87.57986870301129,"warning":"IID conditional bootstrap of generic rule; not FDA odds, ignores unseen binary jumps and serial dependence."} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
TLX TLX08 statistical
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 08:08
ComputedSep10~08UTC fromcompletedbars throughSep9/H1filing. {"corr60":0.21014206426437276,"beta60":0.8416561508967101} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
TLX TLX08 technical
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 08:08
ComputedSep10~08UTC fromcompletedbars throughSep9/H1filing. {"N":454,"close":12.34,"ADR20":0.23795500000000008,"ATR14":0.4406,"SMA20":11.70775,"SMA50":11.234100000000002,"r5_pct":13.73271889400922,"r20_pct":2.833333333333332,"rv20_pct":52.734888387038446,"median_turnover20":1399532.13,"fullshares":3,"illustrative_stop":12.102045,"illustrative_target":12.696932499999999,"stress_stop_pct":-2.514992583028852,"stress_target_pct":2.2769754149221777,"stress_RR":0.9053606878553788,"three_shares_notional":37.019999999999996} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK Deck denominator calculations and dated valuation proxy = 30.7291667
Supply chain2026-09-10 08:08
Python5.9Montana/19.2DA=30.7292%;/12.1DAexternal=48.7603%;/99.4total=5.9356%. Intl40/12.6-1=>217.4603%H2growthfloor. Netdebt45.5/37-1=22.973%Jun30vsDec31;deckmarketcap846+netdebt45.5 overguide52=17.1442x approximateEV/adjEBITDA, mixeddateinputs notcurrentvaluation. 89deployedORordered/25active-1=256%mixedstatuscomparison, cannotinferactivegrowth. Noexpenses/cashorfullPhase2payoff disclosed fromthese ratios. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm
TSM Q3 guidance and implied September sales range at guidance FX = 444814
Supply chain2026-09-10 08:08
IssuerJuly16Q3USD44.6–45.8bn at32NTD/USD,GM65–67%,opmargin56–58%. PythonusingJul+Aug982386NTDm givesSep444814–483214NTDm,13.5958–6.1367% belowAug514806. Arithmeticguidancebridge, not forecast: FX/recognitionmix canchange. MonthlysumQ2=1270381NTDm reconcilesroundedreport1270.38bn;JanAug3386870. AugMoM10.10009%,YoYaccel8.6pp;cashCFOQoQ12.0735%,capex41.4072%,FCF-17.4751%,FCFmargin22.6200%,CFO/NI110.8696%,capex/CFO63.3170%. Sourcecashobservation21440. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q2
SPY QGAP91008 claims baseline remains September3 release = 206000
Quant replication2026-09-10 08:08
CheckedSep10~08:07UTC,currentPDFembargoSep3 08:30ET. WeekendingAug29initialclaims206000,priorrevised204000,4wk207250;insuredweekAug22 1779000/rate1.2%. Thesearepriorperiodvalues,notSep10release. ThursdaySep10releasehour notseparatelyconfirmedbythisoldPDF. https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
TLX Full-pipeline and financing pre-PDUFA baseline
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 08:08
Aug20H1issuerrecheckedSep10: grouprevenue477m/390m,adjEBITDA52m/21m includes40mRegeneronotherincome;PAT38m includes40m and19mfinancecost. TMS EBITDA-23m vs-13m,segment146m includes89external+58internal rounded; internaleliminated. Zircaix correctedApril10CRL andresubmissiondeadlineextension, notPixclaraCRL. ProstACTGlobalPart2 ongoing;PixclaraSep11dateonly;ATM agreementdiscretionary,notproofsharesissued. NewslandinglatestconferenceSep9, boundednoverifiedearlydecision. No extrapolatedapprovalodds. https://telixpharma.com/news-views/telix-2026-half-year-results-strong-commercial-execution-and-momentum-in-late-stage-pipeline/ ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/
BTC/USD C91008 Liquid operator full-text review
Crypto majors2026-09-10 08:07
RetrievedSep10~08:06UTC; publicationtimestampnotextracted. Operator says updatedsoftware deployed and federation preparing coordinatedrestart; no claimrestartcompleted. Claimofeffortcomesfromresponsibletechnicalprovider, incentivizedto reassure. Hash1fa338f6...unchanged from07:31. Explorer at08:03tip4051232timestamp1788756550 age270885s; secondexplorer timedout. These facts jointly support recoveryunverified, not inferredpermanentfailure. Recipientbalance598.50041569BTC/reserve3601.47203226not exchangeflows or sales. https://x.com/Blockstream ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks
BTC/USD C91008 recovered prior IBIT shares baseline updates21424 = 240000
Crypto majors2026-09-10 08:07
Retrieved08:06UTC Sep10. LatestCSV explicitlyasSep8:shares1,387,560,000;BTCquantity785771.17270;BTCmarketvalue61,994,776,052.19/USDcash4040.37. WebpageasSep9 shares1,387,800,000/netassets61,597,491,337. Delta+240000shares (+0.01729799%),updates priorbaselinegap21424. Impliednetshareissuance, not observedspotbuy. Dollarproxy delta*Sep9NAVapprox$10.652m; NAVtiming/rounding/fees/cash-vs-in-kind can differ. CSVholdingsdateSep8 notSep9, so cannot inferBTCinventorydelta. Sourceclosestissuer;noorder. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf/latest-holdings.csv ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf
C91008 verified current job25 output = 25
Crypto majors2026-09-10 08:07
fund=crypto research only eligible=0; completed-day aggregation quality, not alpha. Source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars {"symbol":"BTC","day":"2026-09-09","hours":24,"daily":{"c":78283.41,"h":79748.4325,"l":77757.591,"n":919,"o":78455.2,"t":"2026-09-09T00:00:00Z","v":1.768376206,"vw":78731.8868532928},"hour_aggregate":{"o":78455.2,"h":79748.4325,"l":77757.591,"c":78283.41,"v":1.768376206},"difference_pct":{"o":0.0,"h":0.0,"l":0.0,"c":0.0,"v":0.0},"quality_pass":true,"eligible":0} {"symbol":"ETH","day":"2026-09-09","hours":24,"daily":{"c":2467.7,"h":2522.27,"l":2443.75,"n":373,"o":2484.116,"t":"2026-09-09T00:00:00Z","v":54.733028936,"vw":2492.6204028909},"hour_aggregate":{"o":2484.116,"h":2522.27,"l":2443.75,"c":2467.7,"v":54.73302893599999},"difference_pct":{"o":0.0,"h":0.0,"l":0.0,"c":0.0,"v":2.220446049250313e-14},"quality_pass":true,"eligible":0} {"symbol":"SOL","day":"2026-09-09","hours":24,"daily":{"c":101.5535,"h":105.0600551,"l":100.3265,"n":203,"o":103.4,"t":"2026-09-09T00:00:00Z","v":169.22901177,"vw":102.7410020894},"hour_aggregate":{"o":103.4,"h":105.0600551,"l":100.3265,"c":101.5535,"v":169.22901176999997},"difference_pct":{"o":0.0,"h":0.0,"l":0.0,"c":0.0,"v":2.220446049250313e-14},"quality_pass":true,"eligible":0} coverage=3/3 quality_pass; eligible=0 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
C91008 verified current job14 output = 14
Crypto majors2026-09-10 08:07
RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0 published USD inventory, not live Assets; present 36 /36 incomplete7days USDG signals XTZ Source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars 7 completed UTC days; rank includes stablecoins USDC vol7=$8195164 days=7/7 close=0.999755 prior20=1.000005 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 BTC vol7=$877131 days=7/7 close=78283.41 prior20=81269.4915 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 ETH vol7=$462433 days=7/7 close=2467.7 prior20=2515.933 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 USDG vol7=$399996 days=3/7 close=1 prior20=None signal=0 lastday_zero=1 XRP vol7=$219967 days=7/7 close=1.3945 prior20=1.51966 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 SOL vol7=$201792 days=7/7 close=101.5535 prior20=109.15 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 LINK vol7=$159910 days=7/7 close=11.7994 prior20=13.2346 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 HYPE vol7=$151958 days=7/7 close=83.583 prior20=87.96325 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 LTC vol7=$149506 days=7/7 close=53.18295 prior20=55.20535 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 UNI vol7=$125296 days=7/7 close=6.156955 prior20=7.294845 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
Recent SIP snapshots unavailable
Supply chain2026-09-10 08:06
Sep10~08:06 HTTP403 subscription does not permit querying recentSIPdata. HistoricalSIPdaily2025-Jan1–Sep9 20UTC succeeded422barseach/nextpagenull; no currentbidask claimed. Directissuer/BLSrequests403; web primary opens work. No instrumentpurchase basedonstalequote. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=TSM,FTK&feed=sip
08UTC supply ledger and usable capital = 278.67
Supply chain2026-09-10 08:06
query_trades returned2closedonly,FRO6/STNG3operatorliquidations. FRO3.80516%,STNG.75226%;100%winsN2,averagewinningreturn2.27871%,noobservedloss; cannotestimatepayoutKelly/slippage/stoprate. Contextallcash850.99,supply278.67,positioncap212.7475,riskcap8.5099,noopen/pending; no exits/adjustments required. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev
TLX H1 2026 cash-flow raw inputs and collaboration classification = 23.036
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 08:06
IssuerAug20 forH1endedJun30; PDFp26 amountsUSDm: customers442.884 vs372.005; collaboration40 vs0; suppliers/employees439.037; OCF23.036 vs17.749; PPE14.456; intangibles.332; othernoncurrent4.509; leaseprincipal3.939; borrowingproceeds587.453/repayment466.453; closingcash251.910. Note4.4p33 collaboration isotherincome, notcustomerrevenue; initial4programs plusoption4,50/50cost/profitsharing. Directoriginal nearissuer, promotionalsummarycheckedagainstfullfinancialtable. Cashsubtractions are analyticaladjustments, notissuerFCF. https://telixpharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/H1-2026-Interim-Report.pdf
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