C9101230 quarter Kelly from frozen hourly payoffs = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-10 12:34
Python recomputation quarter*(p-(1-p)/(avgwin/avgloss)): BTCp41.6667%,W2.7120158%,L4.1207999%,N12 =>-.1174213; ETHp44.4444%,W2.5091341%,L5.1951198%,N9=>-.1764560; SOLp50%,W3.8428040%,L5.3172454%,N8=>-.0479611. Clampedlong-onlyallocation0all. Frozen2026reusedholdout, not newindependenttests. OneactualBTCoperatorliquidationN1 isnotsetupedge. Capsfund235.86/accountposition212.7475/nominalrisk8.5099cannotrescueineligibleedge.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; recorded backtests2183/2184/2185
C9101230 ECB primary decision resolves stale homepage = 25
Crypto majors2026-09-10 12:34
FetchedSep10~12:34UTC HTTP200 via requests. IssuerRSS pubDate10Sep14:15+0200=12:15UTC resolvesCETlabelambiguity. Decision raisesall3rates25bp effectiveSep16:deposit2.50/MRO2.65/marginal2.90%. Staffheadlineinflation2026/27/28=3.0/2.5/2.1%;exenergyfood2.5/2.6/2.3;growth.9/1.4/1.5.2027/28inflationrevisedup,growth2026/27up. Issuerprojectednumbersnotactualoutcomes; no precommitmentpath. Supersedes22769ECBunverifiedstatus; BLS/DOLgapsremain. Primarypolicy source, not independent causal crypto price evidence.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html ; https://www.ecb.europa.eu/rss/press.html
PRE91012 ledger and record = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 12:34
Sep10 initialquery: all three returnedclosed,0open/pending/closing;3losses,2operatorliquidations. No newfilledtradesorlessonsawaiting. Fundcash49.14/account850.99 supplied context. listmonitors20armed,2due22/183; five activejobs67/75/126/132/172. Existingfrozenanalyses reviewed; no new backtest strategy used.
runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst
TSM PRE91012 TSM primary gap persists for this reviewer
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 12:34
Bash403challenge; web200but findAugust no match. Prior context/otherfund verification514806NTDm/+53.3% not independently reproduced here, no claim of changeddata. No order.
https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026
PRE91012 PPI release access gap
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 12:34
CheckedSep10 after12:30UTC: datedarchive anddirectppi.htmHTTP403; webcurrentnr0/ppi.htm returned JULY period Aug13 release. August actual headline/core/revisions unverified; July figures not relabeled August. Agencycalendar confirmsAugPPI Sep10 08:30ET,CPI/realearningsSep11 08:30ET https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm . Missingretrieval notdelay.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_09102026.htm
LOVE PRE91012 original guide comparison
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 12:34
June11 original outlook FYsales700–740m/adjEBITDA35–46m, Q2sales157–166m/EBITDA-4to+2m and3.6mrefundexpected. Sep10 newFYsales690–710m/EBITDA31.5–35.5m; Q3sales140–150m/EBITDA-10to-7m. Refund exclusion in current adjusted measure limits like-for-like EBITDA guide surprise; do not label entire nominal reduction organic.
https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/164/the-lovesac-company-reports-first-quarter-fiscal-2027
Aug20 issuer H1 period endedJun30 retains PixclaraSep11, Zircaix correctedCRL/resubmission-extension with outstanding items; BiPASS completion in current news separate indication. No numerical approval odds inferred.
https://telixpharma.com/news-views/telix-2026-half-year-results-strong-commercial-execution-and-momentum-in-late-stage-pipeline/
Sep10 issuer-hosted panel describes five selected clinicians/technologist with favorable local-generator availability experience; no sampling frame, order/dose totals or independent corroboration. Direct-experience claims but promotional selection, not FDA evidence; web failed, Bash HTTP200 full8427char body read. Source concentration one publisher, not five independent studies.
https://telixpharma.com/news-views/reliable-access-and-availability-of-ga-68-radiopharmaceuticals/
TLX PRE91012 primary deadline recheck
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 12:34
Checked Sep10 ~12:38UTC. April10 issuer assigns Sep11 2026 date-only Pixclara PDUFA; Aug20 H1 issuer retains it. No early approval/CRL/delay found in current first-page issuer news; bounded absence, not proof pending. Latest Sep10 Ga68 article is unrelated to F18 Pixclara.
https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/
QPRE91012 saved gap strategy gate arithmetic = -0.1108804318
Quant replication2026-09-10 12:34
Recomputed from saved2222 p.43979544398,W.617581664%,L.682768517%:expected-.1108804318%pertrade,quarterKelly0. Carried backtest2208/2209N2151,return-26.212876%,DD27.351241%,stress-56.878654%,72monthclusters;notnewbacktest. AVAV9eventCI includes0 per161; no evidence transfer toFTK/LOVE/TXNM.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min
QPRE91012 live ledger and empirical outcome audit = 0
Quant replication2026-09-10 12:34
Sep10~12:33 open0,pending0,closing0;3closedalloperatorliquidations,notstrategy exits. PythoncomputedSNOW-5.39236448%,DELL7.93994131%,GTLB-5.13049905%;p33.3333%,avgwin7.93994131%,avgloss5.26143176%,mean-.86097407%,clippedquarterKelly0. No arrival quotes,limit orders or natural stop/target exits available to estimate slippage or intended4–6week hitrate. Context cash187.22/equity850.99;positioncap212.7475,riskcap8.5099.
query_trades(fund=quant)
LOVE QPRE91012 collector change traced to actual Q2 release
Quant replication2026-09-10 12:34
Sep10~12:33 direct200 issuer Q2FY27 endedAug2. Sales161.2m,+.4%;Internet40.2m,-5.3%;grossmargin68.4%,up1200bp includes20m tariff recoveries in costofsales; received21m refunds/interest total, .3m inventory/.7m interest. AdjEBITDA-1.3m excludes recovery benefits. Q2CFO23.9m vs12.2m;H1CFO-11.4m vs-29.2m;cash68.8m vs34.2m;inventory130.2m vs124m;linebalance0,availability34m. Collected issuer accounting claims, promotional source; no organic-margin inference or automatic PEAD entry.
https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/167/the-lovesac-company-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-2027
AVAV QPRE91012 rechecked Q1 cash after investment USDm = -35.954
Quant replication2026-09-10 12:34
Sep10~12:33 direct200 original Sep9 Q1FY27 release,quarter endedAug1. Cash provided operations13.496m minus propertyequipment44.033m minus software5.417m=-35.954m. These are period cash flows, not future cash receipt. Frozen Sep10close EAR pending; no current premarket price can substitute. Public full-call review remains gap.
https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391
FTK QPRE91012 deck forecast and operational status
Quant replication2026-09-10 12:34
Sep10~12:33 direct200,28pages,SHA256 bfccac357506321b2fb05f8a0394e1fbfcb246456e516b277f8e982aa64c8178. As-ofSep9 FY26 revenue360–370m,adjEBITDA50–54m; H2international expected>40m vsH1 12.6m. Q2international10.6m,+172%; Saudi extended supply operation throughmid2027 prospective. Slide22 Montana initial12MW paused for infrastructure delays,phase2discussions;Q2revenue5.9m,contractup to50MW/6months. No verified new paid invoices from this reread. Image cash tables not text-extracted; H1FCF-7.819m remains explicitly carried from2178,not recomputed today. SEC HTML fallback403.
https://ir.flotekind.com/image/Lake-Street-Investor-Presentation.pdf
Retrieved Sep10 ~12:32UTC. Issuer acquisition list still tops at Aug18 extension and Aug10 amended compliance report. Original Aug18 order paragraphs7/A permits staff and party responses by Sep9. Regulator https://www.prc.nm.gov/pnm_acquisition_case_information/ retains procedural halt summary without dated new outcome; https://e360.prc.nm.gov/portal/public/ supplies JS shell/no readable docket to these tools. No proof of nonfiling, acceptance, objection, delay or merger approval; complete response texts remain gap. Search snippet was older than freshly opened page.
https://www.txnmenergy.com/investors/rates-and-filings/pnm-nmprc-filings.aspx
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-10T12:32:48.920338+00:00
src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks
BTC b/a=77577.37/77589.997 age=40 ok=1 depthUSD=77.5/77.0 hurdle%=0.518
ETH b/a=2451.7/2452.3 age=41 ok=1 depthUSD=81.0/81.7 hurdle%=0.526
SOL b/a=100.922/101.04 age=40 ok=1 depthUSD=95.5/95.8 hurdle%=0.619
USDC b/a=1/1.00001 age=901 ok=0 depthUSD=26.7/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.503
USDG b/a=0.99999/1.00001 age=31247 ok=0 depthUSD=9999900.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.504
XRP b/a=1.372/1.37806 age=40 ok=1 depthUSD=5755.9/5737.0 hurdle%=0.946
UNI b/a=6.0112/6.024 age=41 ok=1 depthUSD=4221.5/4222.4 hurdle%=0.716
LTC b/a=52.208/52.51 age=43 ok=1 depthUSD=3526.5/3558.5 hurdle%=1.083
HYPE b/a=82.08/82.47 age=42 ok=1 depthUSD=62914.3/63395.5 hurdle%=0.979
LINK b/a=11.764/11.79 age=43 ok=1 depthUSD=13514.4/13528.8 hurdle%=0.724
fresh_quotes 8 /10
recipient BTC 598.50043115 mempool_net 4.62e-05 tx_n 291
reserve BTC 3601.47203772 mempool_net 0.0 tx_n 590
recentpage 31 controlled 0 not_full_history=1
tip 4051244 age_s 99 t 1789043470
second {'error': 'ConnectTimeout'}
operator_notes 2
operator_hash 1fa338f6b403063d815b51327749e5cafdd00164b7e7f0e4f2a7f8568410238b claim Following the recent incident affecting the Liquid Network and the movement of funds, Blockstream, a
END fund=crypto panels_attempted=7/7 eligible=0; balances not sales or recovery
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://x.com/Blockstream
PRE91012 collector handoff audit = 5
Supply chain2026-09-10 12:33
Sep10 five active jobs12/18/36/73/173. Job173 last11:45UTC exit0 END21/21; next12:45UTC,14runs left. Bombardier challenge and CENTCOM HTTP error remain explicit coverage gaps; hash changes are not news. Job36 next13:15 before13:50 run. Job73 nextSep11 02:30 only exact8-K coverage, so BWEN all-forms manually checked today. Existing jobs retained.
list_jobs fund=supply; notes1932/1925/1919
PRE91012 supply exposure and trade-sample audit = 0
Supply chain2026-09-10 12:33
Live fund query returned only two closed trades FRO6 and STNG3, both Sep4 operator liquidation; no open/pending/closing returned. Account850.99/fundcash278.67/cap212.7475/risk8.5099 from run snapshot. 100% observed wins N2 lacks observed loss and stop/target exits; no reliable Kelly sizing from this selected ledger.
query_trades fund=supply; user account snapshot 2026-09-10T12:31Z
TSM PRE91012 August monthly revenue unchanged = 514806
Supply chain2026-09-10 12:33
Sep10~12:32UTC primary issuer table rechecked: August2026 NT$514806m,+53.3%YoY; July467580m; YTD3386870m,+39.3%; unaudited. Matches08UTC review, no correction observed. Monthly revenue is not newly disclosed free cash flow and does not calibrate event price edge.
https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026
Issuer deck dated Sep10, filed Sep9, continues H2 international sales expected >$40m versus H1$12.6m. Reviewed as management forecast, not Saudi invoice receipts. No verified new utility restart, standby billing, or Phase2 signature from checked IR release/index/deck. Existing pause, PREPA counterparty dependencies and frozen failed FTK test remain binding.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm
FTK CORRECTION quarterly filing date for known Montana pause
Supply chain2026-09-10 12:33
Sep10 direct all-form SEC metadata shows Q2 10-Q filed Aug6 2026, NOT Aug11 as prior supply2182/627/21576 stated. Full original https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm signature also Aug6 and narrative already says generation paused due infrastructure delays/no assurance extension/resolution. Correction strengthens known-before-Sep10 conclusion; no new adverse catalyst. Latest SEC8-K Sep9; IR latest release Sep9.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000928054.json