Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
RARE,IONS,MIRM EXTRA910 actual trade payoff audit = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 18:32
Sep10 queried3closed trades,0wins. MIRM-.439321%/-$0.285515/-.069827R; IONS-2.842420%/-$1.847289/-.411058R; RARE-45.860062%/-$29.804454/-6.440348R. Total-$31.937258,meanreturn-16.380601%;1stop,2operatorliquidations. RAREexit13.98976 vs24stop=$10.01024 shortfall; not pure execution slippage since overnightnews/pricegap. EntryStopnull soRusesstoredstop, tiny/censoredsample. runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst
AVAV EXTRA910 Q1 risk and funded performance obligations = 1457.822
Supply chain2026-09-10 18:32
Sep9 filing forAug1 quarter, browser18:31–32. Remaining fully funded obligations1457.822m; issuer expects78%recognized FY27,22%FY28or beyond. Revenue recognition notcollection. Item1A says no material change to FY26 10-K risk factors. No supplier keyword match is not proof zero supplier exposure; priorannualriskanalysis1811 remains baseline. https://investor.avinc.com/node/21396/html
OESX EXTRA910 hash-change attribution and direct access gaps
Supply chain2026-09-10 18:32
Direct18:30:38 OESX200 retainsSep8data-center-order as latest homepagerelease andSep15 16:30EDTconference; pagehash changes do not establishnewcontract. ACPadvisoryroute403; attemptedPDFroute403 at18:31:13; Augustmonthlyoperationsunread, no transit numbers inferred. AVAV Summitcast direct404 at18:30:38 confirmsbrowserfailure. No newoperationalcomments verified, notclaimnoneoccurred. https://investor.oriones.com/ ; https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisories/ ; https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ADV-34-2026-Monthly-Canal-Operations-Summary-August-2026.pdf ; https://event.summitcast.com/view/e82pfcbT4UwH79PoqVE5jB/FdrSzAFqDzzqoXN2PC5xKh
FTK EXTRA910 unchanged Saudi forecast and frozen half Kelly = 0
Supply chain2026-09-10 18:31
Browser18:31 reads deck filedSep9 forSep10conference: H2international>40m vsH112.6m, operationthroughmid2027; forecast notpaidinvoices. DirectSEC403 recoveredbrowser. Reused frozen10tradeholdoutp.30 W19.6007341%,L19.2995217%; Pythonmean-7.62944496%, rawhalfKelly-.1946214086, clipped0. No newbacktest or current price claimed. Prior quarterKelly0 agrees; halfKelly follows current sizing instruction. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; frozen analyses1895/2238/2266
AVAV EXTRA910 Q1 cash and segment margin reconciliation = -35.954
Supply chain2026-09-10 18:31
Issuer Sep9 16:10EDT release for quarter endedAug1; direct200 at18:30:38UTC. OCF13.496m-equipment44.033m-capitalizedsoftware5.417m=-35.954m, -7.482778% revenue480.490m. AxS EBITDA62.285/revenue345.969=18.003058%; SCDE -8.896/134.521=-6.613094%. Python arithmetic, unaudited issuer financials; consolidated demand not uniform profitability. No conference update inferred. https://investor.avinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aerovironment-announces-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-results
EPM EXTRA910 current mandate sizing arithmetic, not approved targets = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 18:31
Python from1928:p4/6,W2.643209564%,L3.262590862%;b=.810156614,rawhalfKelly=.127611793,approved0. Currentmandate normal3%account risk25.5297,convex5%42.5495,accountpositioncap212.7475 butfundcash49.14 binds. Paper1.5Rtarget3.89686; arithmetic3Rfromoriginal3.73entryand.11124risk=4.06372 isNOTan evidencebackedtarget ororder. Prior1%/quarterKelly/1.5gate conventions superseded fornewtrades, paperunchanged. runway:query_research?fund=catalyst&analysisKind=backtest&symbol=EPM ; user:AGENTS.md
EPM EXTRA910 latest three issuer releases
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 18:31
FetchedSep10~18:31UTC. Sep8earningsnotice latest,Aug20Midlandmineral/royaltyacquisitionclose,Aug19publicofferingpricing. Noearlyearningsininspectedthreeitems,notexhaustivecorporateactionaudit. https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/rss/news-releases.xml
SRRK EXTRA910 original explicitly permits early approval
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 18:31
Aug21issuer re-read18:31UTC: FDAdecision mayoccuranytimethroughSep30; removedCatalentIndiana fromBLA,alternatefillfinish underreview. Following OAI, EU MAAwithdrawn,procedureconcludedAug20,plannedresubmissionwithalternate. Supply/launchreadiness isissuerclaim,not approvalorcash. CurrentRSSabsence doesnotprovependingstatus. https://investors.scholarrock.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-provides-update-global-apitegromab-regulatory
LOVE EXTRA910 SEC cash and refund reconciliation = -23.633
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 18:31
Sep10filing fetched18:31UTC,26weeks endedAug2. USDm OCF-11.429,investing-12.204,financing-9.416,cash68.804 vs101.853 beginning; cashchange-33.049. Refund21 inclinterest:20COGS/.3inventory/.7interest. Prior-year OCF-29.212 andinvesting-13.196 total-42.408; improvement18.775m,44.271%, includesrefund/notorganic. Newquarterreceipt cannot be equatedwithrecurringFCF. Issuer original, noindependentorigin; priorguidancebridge notresolved. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701758/000162828026061220/love-20260802.htm
C9101830 OI prospective changes and reference correction
Crypto majors2026-09-10 18:31
Python compared16:32→18:29:56: BTCcoinOI29192.012→29205.646 +.046704557%; ETH616889.749→596374.569 -3.325582899%; SOL2719084→2687627.33 -1.156884819%. Singlevenue grosscontracts, not net selling or global leverage; no historicalpercentile. Correction: statisticalanalysis2268 references guessed22873; actual payoff/book/collector observation is22877. Frozen results unchanged. https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; observations22840,22872,22877
C9101830 fresh quotes and chain evidence
Crypto majors2026-09-10 18:31
Direct collector187 local refresh completed18:30:35.756UTC, exit0 numericEND7/7attempted. BTC bid/ask77027.5/77044.7 age41s depthUSD77.4/76.8 hurdle.524%; ETH2459.4/2459.934 age83 depth82/81.7 hurdle.524%; SOL99.291/99.3817 age80 depth94.4/94.2 hurdle.594%. Hurdle100*((ask/bid)/.9975^2-1), assumed25bp/side receivedasset, excludes extra depthslippage. USDC.9995/1.00001 age137 fresh; USDG.99999/1.00001 age52714 stale; XRP1.348/1.353 age89 hurdle.875%; UNI6.02875/6.041 age77 .706%; LTC52.03/52.3486 age141 1.117%; HYPE79.7/80.064 age78 .961%; LINK11.613/11.6384 age50 .722%; total9/10fresh. Liquidtip4051602 timestamp1789064950 age86s (+118vs16:32tip4051484). SecondaryConnectTimeout; operatorhash1fa338f6b403063d815b51327749e5cafdd00164b7e7f0e4f2a7f8568410238b unchanged2notes. Recipient598.50044115BTC mempoolnet.0000462 tx292; reserve3601.47203772 mempool0 tx590 unchanged; recent31tx0controlled is not fullhistory. No independent authorized payout/recovery proof. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://blockstream.info/api/ ; https://liquid.network/api/blocks ; https://x.com/Blockstream
AVAV QTR9101828 original earnings release re-read; closing signal unavailable = 480.5
Quant replication2026-09-10 18:31
DirectGET18:29:51UTC200 afterwebopenerror; stdlibHTMLparser recoveredSep9 16:10EDT issuer release, fiscalquarter endedAug1. Revenue480.5m vs454.7m,+6%rounded; bookings.7bn/booktobill1.4/fundedbacklog1.5bn+37%. Grossmargin124.6m vs95.1m, intangiblepurchaseaccountingexpense18.5m vs37.4m: accountingcomparison matters. Interestedissuer primary, not independent cashverification. FullHTML299723bytes SHA87a4f3355ebdf8d90bad4fe1ea75f3aee74e07575c8107e685ed7f75a52d7647; no priorfullHTMLidentity comparisonclaimed. CurrentSep10close unobservable18:30; no EAR/price inferred from headlines. https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391
SRRK EXTRA910 current issuer feed
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 18:30
Six latest items atSep10~18:30; latestSep2FSHD fasttrack/dosing,Aug27conferences,Aug21regulatory update. No newer SMAfacility resolution in inspected RSS entries; no inference of exhaustive absence or approval. Prior replay remains unread. https://investors.scholarrock.com/rss/news-releases.xml
TLX EXTRA910 date and bounded latest news
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 18:30
Apr10 issuer original re-readSep10~18:30 confirms Sep11PDUFAgoaldate, dateonly; asApr10 noPixclararevenueinFY2026guide. Latest six RSS items checked18:30 show Sep10Ga68availability,Sep9conferences,Sep1BiPASS; no Pixclara decision in inspected entries. Not proof decision pending, not exhaustive FDA/ASX check. https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ ; https://telixpharma.com/feed/
EPM EXTRA910 original earnings date reverified
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 18:30
IssuerSep8notice fetched18:30UTC confirms Sep15aftermarketclose financialresults, Sep16 10Centralcall; distinct times. FrozenpaperSep14closeexit unchanged. Issuer source optimistic; no second independent origin claimed. https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026
EPM EXTRA910 delayed paper progress = 3.795
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 18:30
Fetched18:30:07UTC;147emittedminutes13:30–18:10, no pagination,END1/1. H3.82/L3.675,V271797,mark+1.742627%=+.584322R from3.73. No emitted low<=3.61876 orhigh>=3.89686. Missing minutes not interpolated; delayed history not executable quote, full daily outcome or15min execution validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&timeframe=1Min&start=2026-09-10T13:30:00Z&end=2026-09-10T18:10:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all&limit=10000
AVAV EXTRA910 due158 conference public evidence coverage
Supply chain2026-09-10 18:30
Browser18:30 confirms Sep10 12:50EDT event; originalAug27 notice promises archived webcast. Issuer events list Q1 Sep9 slides but no Sep10 conference transcript in inspected list. Summitcast browser404; direct fallback pending. Bounded original-site search found conference announcement, no new operational transcript. Missing retrieval is not proof no new commentary was made; issuer still labels upcoming, not reliable actual-completion status. https://investor.avinc.com/events/event-details/2026-jefferies-global-industrials-conference ; https://investor.avinc.com/news-events/events-and-presentations ; https://event.summitcast.com/view/e82pfcbT4UwH79PoqVE5jB/FdrSzAFqDzzqoXN2PC5xKh
EXTRA910 state and completed collector receipts = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 18:30
Checked Sep10 18:29UTC: all3 catalyst trades closed, zero open/pending/closing.20armed monitors none due,208/209next19:40;5activejobs. Actual17216:45 END15 resolves prior pending receipt; IPHAnews now HTTP200 hash63c1ed7a93468887, no longer ValueError in this receipt, but hash not content.13217:15 END4SEC+3RSS+FDA;6717:01 END complete. Context fund49.14/account850.99. runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; runway:list_monitors?fund=catalyst ; runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst
EXTRA910 ledger and scheduled coverage = 0
Supply chain2026-09-10 18:30
18:29–30 live query: no open/pending/closing supply lots; only closed FRO6/STNG3 both operator liquidation. Supply278.67 cash; equity850.99; position cap212.7475. Five active jobs12/18/36/73/173. 173 last18:15:38 actual END21/21 attempts, next19:15:35 with8 runs left. Bombardier challenge/CENTCOM error remain;36 AI.PA403/MOFCOM timeout. Job73 exact8K filter misses amendments; no new current prices measured. Job12 Sep9 FRO47.23 vsprior46.57 ADR1.23325 and STNG82.845 vs82.345 ADR1.68125 descriptive IEX breakout, eligiblefalse; not fresh execution quotes. query_trades fund=supply ; list_jobs fund=supply ; user 2026-09-10T18:28:48.785Z account snapshot
C9101830 frozen payoff, book and collector audit = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-10 18:30
Python recomputation, not new backtest: BTC N12 win41.6667% W2.712015818% L4.120799879% E-1.273793339% halfKelly-.234842535; ETH N9 win44.4444% W2.509134122 L5.195119754 E-1.771006920 halfKelly-.352911968; SOL N8 win50% W3.842804028 L5.317245359 E-.737220666 halfKelly-.095922230. All clamp0. Query finds sole closed BTC10 operator liquidation, no open/pending/closing; unsuitable for setup or slippage calibration. Five187 quote receipts16:46:26→18:01:38 all numericEND, gaps15.6780,29.4300,15.0362,15.0660minutes. As18:29 list187 active8left next18:15 overdue, last18:00;188 active2left next18:45,last17:45 numericEND. Both19:41 hardcutoff; retain scheduled coverage, do not infer on-time future execution. Daily14 current census36symbols,USDG3/7days incomplete; daily25 Sep9 all3 aggregate checks pass, not repair of older history. Sevenarmed crypto monitors, none due;20219:40 next. Max position212.7475/fund235.86. Current3R target/+2R at mostquarter policy differs from rejected1.5R target and old+1R references; do not promote old tests to current-policy validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; backtests2183-2185 ; query_trades fund=crypto ; notes2000,2003,2006,2008,2010 ; list_jobs fund=crypto
QTR9101828 collectors completion and cadence = 3
Quant replication2026-09-10 18:30
189actual18:00:57all3panels/ENDtrue; preceding17:15:52/16:45:55 =>30then45min interval versus30scheduled. HashesAVAV701acbd7ad08/FTKbbdd0666457a/LOVEab7020afb5ec unchanged selectedlinks. 3runsleft next18:30:53; covers expected19:30 before19:40review but actualcadence notguaranteed.186completed16:45:44ENDtrue/0left; old missingfooter resolved.85actual18:15:38seen117/pages3/morefalse/matches4/omitted0, syndicated transcriptsCULP DBI LOVE YB not verified neweventsignals; next22:15.15daily54left,nextSep11 02:45; top3EWY/EWT/EWP eligible0, no monthlycatchup. list_jobs(fund=quant); query_research(fund=quant,kind=notes)
TXNM QTR9101828 response deadline original reverified; actual filings unavailable
Quant replication2026-09-10 18:30
18:29UTC issuer mirror acquisition25-00060-UT latestAug18. Read originalAug18orderp3A: staff/allparties may respond bySep9; no approval deadline. Aug27declaratoryorder distinctcase. https://e360.prc.nm.gov/portal/public/ has0readablelines; actualSep9responses remain unavailable, not assumed absent or accepting protections. Original regulator order on issuer mirror is primary procedure evidence. https://www.txnmenergy.com/~/media/Files/P/PNM-Resources/rates-and-filings/2025%20Blackstone%20Infrastructure/PNM/Order%20Granting%20Joint%20Movants%20Motion%20for%20Extension.pdf
FTK QTR9101828 full investor PDF identity = 2589549
Quant replication2026-09-10 18:30
Direct issuer GET18:29:51UTC200; SHA256bfccac357506321b2fb05f8a0394e1fbfcb246456e516b277f8e982aa64c8178 matches22846. Entire same file, not just listing hash. No incremental cash disclosure in this file; does not prove no other news. Issuer forecast is interested primary evidence, not audited paid cash. https://ir.flotekind.com/image/Lake-Street-Investor-Presentation.pdf
QTR9101828 fresh ledger and half-Kelly audit = 0
Quant replication2026-09-10 18:30
18:29UTC fresh ledger contains3 closed operator-liquidated trades and0open/pending/closing. Python using saved p=.43979544398,W=.617581664%,L=.682768517% yields mean-.1108804318176% and halfKelly=max(0,.5*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)))=0. No new backtest. User context fund187.22/account850.99; current mandate normal3%risk25.5297/convex5%42.5495/position25%212.7475. Prior1%8.5099 is not current venue mandate. No sizing difference since edge0. query_trades(fund=quant); saved analyses2208/2209/2255; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
C9101830 fresh funding and stablecoin panel
Crypto majors2026-09-10 18:30
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-10T18:29:54.353116+00:00 source=https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time offset_s=0.4059 uncertainty_s=0.472 source=https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest {"s":"BTC","ts":["1789064951662","1789064996456"],"age":[45.3,0.5],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":1.0,"settled_bp":0.9658,"oi_coin":29205.646} {"s":"ETH","ts":["1789064951709","1789064996339"],"age":[45.1,0.5],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":-0.8275,"settled_bp":-0.6047,"oi_coin":596374.569} {"s":"SOL","ts":["1789064952691","1789064996450"],"age":[44.2,0.5],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":-0.1599,"settled_bp":-0.3151,"oi_coin":2687627.33} source=https://www.circle.com/transparency issuer_date=Sep 07, 2026 bn[circ,issue7,redeem7,issue30,redeem30,issue365,redeem365]=[74.28, 8.8, 7.86, 36.59, 34.37, 333.52, 331.64] source=https://www.usdc.com/ raw_cms_value=74207680145.952487476 issuer_date=UNPARSED NO_FLOW_INFERENCE locale/template ambiguity source=https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 {"ts":1788998400,"circulating":74386006033.1783,"Ethereum":[1788998400,47146319984.45],"Solana":[1788998400,7103929420.46],"Hyperliquid L1":[1788998400,6887999675.1]} END crypto collection; definitions/cutoffs differ; flow is not buying; eligible=0 Direct exchange/issuer sources; Llama is an aggregator, not independent issuer corroboration. Retrieval started18:29:54UTC; reference timestamps in payload. No historical percentile, directional flow or current-date issuer inference. https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2
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