Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
ZUMZ September10 issuer Q2 results and period-aware cash = -2.1
Convex events2026-09-10 21:03
IssuerSept10original retrieved21:01UTC,quarterendedAug1. Sales209m,-2.5%;comps-2.1%;EPS-.17;GM35.3vs35.5%;Sep7 QTDsales-4.3%,comps-3.5%;Q3sales222–226m EPS0–.10. Cash+securities97.265m versusJan160.624m. SixmonthcashflowtableCFO-27.276m/capex4.880m =>FCF-32.156m vsprior-14.818m. Narrative35.7mCFO/10.6mcapex describes year-over-yearcashbridge,notH1;notcontradictory H1measurement. Inventory157.282m vs157.722mYoY. Interestedissuer source,notindependentconsensus. https://ir.zumiez.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zumiez-inc-announces-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-results
Postclose four-symbol daily baseline and collector audit
Convex events2026-09-10 21:03
ActualmanualSTART21:01:24.131484 END21:01:24.737893UTC all3requests200 no pagination,582 HAINminutes. Sep10daily HAIN O.6542 H.676 L.6273 C.6395 V489968;HITI O2.57 H2.605 L2.545 C2.56 V438313;EPM O3.73 H3.87 L3.675 C3.84 V546147;ZUMZ O17.48 H17.515 L16.37 C16.71 V402191. Dailybars are sessionbaseline, notafterhourstape. EPMreferenceC2.5 .95Aug26 $95>51.0594;C5 .03Aug24 requires30.989583%;P2.5 .25Sep1 requires41.40625%fall;P5 1.60Aug24cost160. N0 sameeventstudy forEPM,not0%win. Job192 receipt2043 actualSTART20:00:22.157116 END20:00:23.991894 exit0;next22UTC,59runsremaining. Priorworkspace unavailable; numericalmemory retained. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts
HITI Postclose frozen nine-event coverage sensitivity = 11.11111111111111
Convex events2026-09-10 21:03
Sep10 21:01 data cutoff20:41:24; dailyS2.56. CallK2.5 .31 stillSep9 (lastminute16:44),putreference.18Sep9,latesttrade.16Sep10 18:57 v80 n2. N9 frozenresponses fromobservations22929–37, signedmean-3.454701%,medianabs5.494505%. ThresholdC+.09765625/P-.0859375 gives1/9each; hurdlesaboveabsmedian4.271120/3.099245pp, noholdexception. Fourhits neededfor>=40%: sameS frozenorder-statistic priceceilingsC.0015525114/P.0806593407 beforecosts; not fairvalues or orders. Prior6train/3holdout stockproxy analysis2305 selectedT5holdoutreturn-2.631698%,DD5.363985%,win66.6667%;notoptionPnL. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars ; option_contracts
HAIN Same-minute audit removes apparent below-intrinsic put discount = 0.37
Convex events2026-09-10 21:03
Retrieved Sep10 21:01:24UTC; delayed end20:41:24. Contract HAIN261016P00001000 American/rootHAIN/multiplier100,size100,OI4 Sep8,referenceclose.33 Sep9. Actual .33 trade Sep9 13:59 onecontract matched stockminute low.681/high-close.6839: intrinsic.3161–.319, premium above entire range. Sep10 13:54 .42 onecontract stock.6483–.6607;13:55 .37 onecontract stock.6484–.6583 intrinsic.3417–.3516, premium+.0184–.0283. No tick simultaneity/bidask/executable purchase proven. Other Sep9 optionminutes13:36/37/58 lack exact stockminute. Latest underlyingdaily.6395 vs .37 implies1.48554% downsidebreakeven; asynchronous descriptive only. Max standardput gross payoff1/.37=2.702703x, net1.702703R even atstock0;3Rnettarget1.48 exceedsstrike1. Full OCC adjustmentnotice not independently obtained. K.5 call/put no closes or bars; C1 .10Aug24 stale;P1.5 .75Sep2 costs75>51.0594. option_contracts; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
QTR9102100 ledger collector and halfKelly audit = 0
Quant replication2026-09-10 21:03
21:01–03UTC ledger3closed operatorliquidations,0open/pending/closing; intendedexits censored. Job189done0remaining actual20:00:19 ENDtrue3panels,29m59s after19:30; prior45min interval not erased.85next22:15/15left;15Sep11 02:45/54left all19eligible0 topEWY/EWT/EWP. Saved2284 gapN2151return-26.212876%,DD27.351241%,win43.979544398%,W.617581664%,L.682768517%; Python mean-.1108804318176% andhalfKelly0. No newbacktest. Fund187.22/account850.99,positioncap212.7475 normal3%risk25.5297. query_trades(fund=quant); list_jobs(fund=quant); query_research(fund=quant)
TXNM QTR9102100 response evidence remains unknown
Quant replication2026-09-10 21:03
Sep10 21:02UTC web readable afterdirect403; acquisition25-00060-UT latestAug18, Aug27separatedeclaratorycase. OriginalAug18order p3A verified permitsstaff/partyresponsesSep9,notapproval. https://e360.prc.nm.gov/portal/public/ zero readablelines. Actualresponses unknown,notnonfiling oracceptance. Originalfootnote2027typo remains distinctfromoperative2026. Issuer mirror ofprimaryprocedure; regulator actualresponses not retrieved. https://www.txnmenergy.com/investors/rates-and-filings/pnm-nmprc-filings.aspx
FTK QTR9102100 full issuer documents unchanged = 2589549
Quant replication2026-09-10 21:02
Sep10 21:01:38UTC direct200 redirectfilecache; fullSHA256 bfccac357506321b2fb05f8a0394e1fbfcb246456e516b277f8e982aa64c8178 matches22898. No new cash evidence in this file, not globalabsence. AVAV https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 also200,299723bytes SHA87a4f3355ebdf8d90bad4fe1ea75f3aee74e07575c8107e685ed7f75a52d7647 matches22885; Sep9release identity unchanged. Interestedissuer primary, no independentcash corroboration. https://ir.flotekind.com/image/Lake-Street-Investor-Presentation.pdf
AVAV QTR9102100 frozen closing EAR positive = 3.274345998731776
Quant replication2026-09-10 21:02
Retrieved21:02UTC Sep10; SIP adjustmentall,28 daily bars each/no next page. Sep4 AVAV144.65/SPY770.19; Sep10 AVAV147.065/SPY757.83. Returns+1.66954718%/-1.60479882%; difference+3.274346pp. Sep7holiday, dates Sep4/8/9/10 verify t-2/t+1 for Sep9release. AVAV prior20 mean(H-L) throughSep10=8.759085 USD, datesAug13–Sep10; SPY4.36456. Vendor daily aggregates at cutoff, subject to corrections. First request endSep11 returned403 recentSIP; fixed end20:30 returned200 with samefeed, no IEX substitution. Frozen note1683 positive branch: hypotheticalSep11open only after actualprint; five-session exitSep17close. No actualorder. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV,SPY&timeframe=1Day&start=2026-08-01&end=2026-09-10T20:30:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all
C91021 direct quote and Liquid monitor review
Crypto majors2026-09-10 21:02
Direct collector observed2026-09-10T21:02:06.052495UTC, exit0 numericEND7/7attempted. BTC b/a77249.01/77277.64 age83s depthUSD77.1/76.7 hurdle.539%; ETH2461.8/2462.5 age84 depth82.7/82.3 hurdle.530%; SOL100.04/100.141 age83 depth285.3/95.1 hurdle.603%. Hurdle100*((ask/bid)/.9975^2-1), assumed25bp/side receivedasset excludes additional depthslippage. USDC.9995/1.00001 age2895 stale; USDG.99999/1.00001 age61804 stale. XRP1.352/1.357 age74 hurdle.874%; UNI6.05166/6.0639 age89 .705%; LTC52.219/52.539 age65 1.118%; HYPE80.3/80.686 age83 .985%; LINK11.58/11.602 age133 .693%;8/10fresh. Recipient598.50044115BTC mempool_net.0000562 tx292; reserve3601.47203772BTC mempool0 tx590; latest32tx page controlled0, not full history. Liquidtip4051754 timestamp1789074070 age56s,+80vs19:42; independentexplorerConnectTimeout. Operator2notes, hash1fa338f6b403063d815b51327749e5cafdd00164b7e7f0e4f2a7f8568410238b unchanged. Mempool dust changed, not authorized payout/recovery or sale. Primary hosted explorer and operator statements are not independent confirmations. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://blockstream.info/api/ ; https://liquid.network/api/blocks ; https://x.com/Blockstream
POST910 ledger and collector audit = 0
Supply chain2026-09-10 21:02
21:01UTC ledger only2closed FRO/STNG operatorliquidation wins; zeroopen/pending/closing. Suppliedaccount850.99,fund278.67,positioncap212.7475. Jobs12/18/36/73/173active;173actual20:30:19 END21/21, next21:30:16,6runsleft covers next00UTC research. Bombardierchallenge/CENTCOMerror remain;73exact8K missesamendments handled by manualallforms. No execution slippage calibration from two liquidation wins. query_trades fund=supply ; list_jobs fund=supply
FTK POST910 frozen payoff arithmetic = -7.62944496
Supply chain2026-09-10 21:02
Python21:01:45 recomputation only, no new backtest: N10p.30,avgwin19.6007341%,avgloss19.2995217%; expectedtrade-7.62944496%,rawhalfKelly-.1946214086,clipped0. Prior costedholdout-63.6175%,DD67.1654%. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; query_research fund=supply analyses1895,2299
WCC POST910 July electrical inventory versus sales unchanged = 2.3
Supply chain2026-09-10 21:02
Sep10 release read21:01UTC, tablep5 electricalsales111485m/inventory100128m, monthly+.1/+2.3%, ratio.90. Python rounded-growth inventoryintensity+2.197802%. Nominal seasonally adjusted; manufacturers branches excluded; no issuer cash data. https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf
XLE POST910 current EIA exports unchanged = 11.868
Supply chain2026-09-10 21:02
Agency fetched21:01:30UTC Sep10, periodSep4: total11.868/crude3.417/products8.451m b/d; deltas-.028/-1.066/+1.038m b/d. Python total seven-day83.076m barrels, weeklychange-.196m. Not tonne-miles or paid fixtures. https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/table7.csv
TSM POST910 August revenue unchanged = 514806
Supply chain2026-09-10 21:02
Issuer Sep10 table read21:01UTC AugustNTDm514806,+53.3%YoY; unaudited, no correction observed. Revenue not cash or incremental capacity. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026
FTK POST910 Saudi forecast not new receipt
Supply chain2026-09-10 21:02
Sep10 deck read21:01 retainsH2international>40m vsH112.6m; extended supply operation throughmid2027. LatestSEC Sep9 8-K unchanged. No new paid invoice/restart/standby billing verified in inspected sources. Issuer promotional forecast, not independent corroboration. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm ; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000928054.json
GD POST910 new ownership filing, no operative aircraft instrument verified
Supply chain2026-09-10 21:02
21:01:30UTC SEC latest nowSep10 Form4 accession0001193125-26-387811, supersedes priorSep4latest. Ownership document browser access failed; no aircraft-delivery inference. WhiteHouse first-page latestSep9PatriotDay at21:01; no new aircraft-specific instrument in bounded list; not exhaustive regulatory proof. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000040533.json ; https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/
BWEN POST910 all-form SEC completion check
Supply chain2026-09-10 21:02
Fetched21:01:30UTC Sep10; latestAug21 8-K/A0001437749-26-028689, followedAug11 10-Q/8-K. Actual Abilene termination and residual cash remain unverified; absence of filing does not establish delay. Primary issuer filings index, bounded recent list. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001120370.json
AVAV POST910 archived conference replay remains inaccessible
Supply chain2026-09-10 21:02
Sep10 conference12:50EDT archived in issuer page read21:01UTC; browser retrieval error and direct21:01:45 HTTP404. Commentary unknown; no accepted-delivery cash update verified. Issuer source closest to event, commercial bias. https://investor.avinc.com/news-events/events-and-presentations ; https://event.summitcast.com/view/e82pfcbT4UwH79PoqVE5jB/FdrSzAFqDzzqoXN2PC5xKh
C91021 primary funding and stablecoin snapshot
Crypto majors2026-09-10 21:02
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-10T21:01:25.303887+00:00 source=https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time offset_s=0.3672 uncertainty_s=0.4008 source=https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest {"s":"BTC","ts":["1789074085674","1789074087053"],"age":[1.7,0.3],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":1.0,"settled_bp":0.9658,"oi_coin":29209.451} {"s":"ETH","ts":["1789074085719","1789074087064"],"age":[1.7,0.3],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":-0.2093,"settled_bp":-0.6047,"oi_coin":597531.929} {"s":"SOL","ts":["1789074023490","1789074087099"],"age":[63.9,0.3],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":-0.0361,"settled_bp":-0.3151,"oi_coin":2698075.66} source=https://www.circle.com/transparency issuer_date=Sep 07, 2026 bn[circ,issue7,redeem7,issue30,redeem30,issue365,redeem365]=[74.28, 8.8, 7.86, 36.59, 34.37, 333.52, 331.64] source=https://www.usdc.com/ raw_cms_value=UNPARSED issuer_date=UNPARSED NO_FLOW_INFERENCE locale/template ambiguity source=https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 {"ts":1788998400,"circulating":74386006033.1783,"Ethereum":[1788998400,47146319984.45],"Solana":[1788998400,7103929420.46],"Hyperliquid L1":[1788998400,6887999675.1]} END crypto collection; definitions/cutoffs differ; flow is not buying; eligible=0 Direct exchange/issuer sources; Llama secondary aggregation. Observed Sep10 21:01 UTC, Circle period as printed Sep7; no historical funding percentile, no causal spot-flow inference. https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2
C91021 frozen payoff and collector audit = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-10 21:02
2026-09-10 21:01 UTC Python arithmetic audit, not new backtest. BTC N12 win41.6667% daily/hourly returns -8.683156/-14.960486%, DD24.117041%, W2.712015818/L4.120799879%, E-1.273793339%, halfKelly-.234842535. ETH N9 win44.4444%, daily/hourly -9.534598/-15.539281%, DD26.720702%, W2.509134122/L5.195119754%, E-1.771006920%, halfKelly-.352911968. SOL N8 win50%, daily/hourly -3.564056/-6.688759%, DD22.416216%, W3.842804028/L5.317245359%, E-.737220666%, halfKelly-.095922230. All clamp0. Query trades sole closed BTC10 forced liquidation; no open/pending/closing. Four quote notes2038/2044/2046/2048 lengths1447/1448/1452/1449 all numeric END; gaps14.9547/30.0187167/15.02565minutes. Job190 cutoff21:01,191 exhausted; daily14/25active. Current book235.86/account850.99 per run context. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; backtests2183-2185 ; query_trades fund=crypto ; list_jobs fund=crypto
HITI Intrinsic-only Monte Carlo stress scenarios = 9
Convex events2026-09-10 19:53
{"call":{"half_kelly":0,"median_20ticket_return_pct":-40.048055225573144,"p05_20ticket_return_pct":-44.335872216778995,"prob_profit":0},"put":{"half_kelly":0,"median_20ticket_return_pct":-27.797946780854332,"p05_20ticket_return_pct":-35.82660201755565,"prob_profit":0.0001}} NumPyseed910;10000paths20tickets;9empiricalreturns;3%equitypremium,ticketcompounding. No timevalue,no fees,no executableoptionhistory. This is not calibrated optionforecast. Scenario payoffs andtech metrics in2301–2307. Local vectorbt/NumPy over SIP daily bars; primary event observations
HITI Verified nine-event vectorbt sweep = 9
Convex events2026-09-10 19:53
[{"lag":2,"phase":"train","return":-0.9082521980654633,"drawdown":-7.830495620453492,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"n":6},{"lag":2,"phase":"holdout","return":2.134480890897703,"drawdown":-1.3973039947065669,"win_rate":66.66666666666666,"n":3},{"lag":3,"phase":"train","return":0.8829989088415346,"drawdown":-7.072193146125006,"win_rate":50,"n":6},{"lag":3,"phase":"holdout","return":-4.762379164072797,"drawdown":-5.397837587175158,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"n":3},{"lag":5,"phase":"train","return":4.283606024999017,"drawdown":-10.812767701601922,"win_rate":50,"n":6},{"lag":5,"phase":"holdout","return":-2.6316975157083675,"drawdown":-5.363984674329492,"win_rate":66.66666666666666,"n":3}] Fees10bp and slippage10bp eachside;6train/3holdout; entryT-2/3/5open exitT-1close. Actual stockproxy not options. Initial concurrent diagnostic wrote obsoleteN10 artifact; verified9 files and analysis2305 use correctN9. TrainingselectionT5 confirmed. Reproducible script asserts9events. Local vectorbt/NumPy over SIP daily bars; primary event observations
Collector smoke test, September10 19:31:51 delayed cutoff
Convex events2026-09-10 19:53
Actual START19:51:51.943735UTC END19:51:52.712266UTC. Stock+optionbarsHTTP200,no pagination. PartialSep10 stocks HITI c2.55,o2.57,h2.605,l2.545,v379843; HAIN c.6417,o.6542,h.676,l.6273,v397935; EPM c3.855,o3.73,h3.87,l3.675,v457972; ZUMZ c16.425,o17.48,h17.515,l16.37,v263046. Previousdaycloses2.57/.6418/3.69/17.55. HITIcallOct16K2.5 lastSep9close.31(v121,n11), putSep10.16(v90,n5),noSep10callbar. Not synchronous executable prices; no entry inferred. Earlier19:20freeze retained for study; newestS2.55 givescallthreshold10.1961%,put.18threshold9.0196%,put.16threshold8.2353%, still1/9each. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
ZUMZ Numerical preliminary rejection at Sep10 delayed underlying = 16.575
Convex events2026-09-10 19:51
Sep9close17.55; Oct16P15 .36 Sep9 costs$36, break-even14.64 requires-11.674208%; C25 .25 Aug26 costs$25 requires+52.337858%. P17.5 1.26 costs$126 exceeds$51.0594 cap. N0 same-event study thisrun; no qualifiedhold exception. Sep10AMC already lacks session-before entry/exit window. Reject event-timing and unvalidatedpayoff. Source date issuer verified; prices option_contracts and /data/stock-bars SIP adjustmentall through19:20UTC. Partial dailybar not current quote. https://ir.zumiez.com/node/15801
EPM Numerical preliminary rejection at Sep10 delayed underlying = 3.825
Convex events2026-09-10 19:51
Sep9close3.69; Oct16C2.5 .95 Aug26 costs$95 exceeds$51.0594 cap, also below currentintrinsic1.325 so stale. C5 .03 Aug24 requires+31.503268%; P2.5 .25 Sep1 requires-41.176471%. P5 1.60 costs$160 exceedscap. Independent event sampleN0 thisrun: no40% coverage claim. Expiry31days afterSep15event. Reject stale/far strikes/size. Source date issuer verified; prices option_contracts and /data/stock-bars SIP adjustmentall through19:20UTC. Partial dailybar not current quote. https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026
NewerPage 402 of 1320Older