Notes

[{"downside_price":17,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.05,"assumed_survival":0.25,"net_mean":-11.952165909090906,"loss_pct":98.797,"target_hit_pct":1.203,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":0},{"downside_price":17,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.1,"assumed_survival":1,"net_mean":2.8593090909091,"loss_pct":90.096,"target_hit_pct":9.904,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":9.666975560081491},{"downside_price":17,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.1,"assumed_survival":0.25,"net_mean":-9.837943181818178,"loss_pct":97.555,"target_hit_pct":2.445,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":0}]; seed92104, not observed probabilities; full loss plus2USD friction, capped1.702273/share payoff. No actual option stop paths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/MG?feed=indicative

[{"downside_price":17,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.01,"assumed_survival":1,"net_mean":-12.31645227272727,"loss_pct":99.01100000000001,"target_hit_pct":0.989,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":0},{"downside_price":17,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.01,"assumed_survival":0.25,"net_mean":-13.608477272727269,"loss_pct":99.77000000000001,"target_hit_pct":0.22999999999999998,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":0},{"downside_price":17,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.05,"assumed_survival":1,"net_mean":-5.621413636363631,"loss_pct":95.078,"target_hit_pct":4.922,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":0}]; seed92104, not observed probabilities; full loss plus2USD friction, capped1.702273/share payoff. No actual option stop paths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/MG?feed=indicative

[{"downside_price":18.3,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.05,"assumed_survival":0.25,"net_mean":-11.7271,"loss_pct":98.663,"target_hit_pct":0,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":0},{"downside_price":18.3,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.1,"assumed_survival":1,"net_mean":3.0305999999999953,"loss_pct":89.982,"target_hit_pct":0,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":9.608269230769215},{"downside_price":18.3,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.1,"assumed_survival":0.25,"net_mean":-9.6956,"loss_pct":97.468,"target_hit_pct":0,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":0}]; seed92104, not observed probabilities; full loss plus2USD friction, capped1.702273/share payoff. No actual option stop paths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/MG?feed=indicative

[{"downside_price":18.3,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.01,"assumed_survival":1,"net_mean":-12.2643,"loss_pct":98.979,"target_hit_pct":0,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":0},{"downside_price":18.3,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.01,"assumed_survival":0.25,"net_mean":-13.5767,"loss_pct":99.751,"target_hit_pct":0,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":0},{"downside_price":18.3,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.05,"assumed_survival":1,"net_mean":-5.3844,"loss_pct":94.932,"target_hit_pct":0,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":0}]; seed92104, not observed probabilities; full loss plus2USD friction, capped1.702273/share payoff. No actual option stop paths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/MG?feed=indicative

[{"downside_price":19.84,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.05,"assumed_survival":0.25,"net_mean":-13.797599999999996,"loss_pct":98.735,"target_hit_pct":0,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":0},{"downside_price":19.84,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.1,"assumed_survival":1,"net_mean":-12.392799999999996,"loss_pct":89.955,"target_hit_pct":0,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":0},{"downside_price":19.84,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.1,"assumed_survival":0.25,"net_mean":-13.613599999999995,"loss_pct":97.585,"target_hit_pct":0,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":0}]; seed92104, not observed probabilities; full loss plus2USD friction, capped1.702273/share payoff. No actual option stop paths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/MG?feed=indicative

[{"downside_price":19.84,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.01,"assumed_survival":1,"net_mean":-13.840639999999995,"loss_pct":99.004,"target_hit_pct":0,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":0},{"downside_price":19.84,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.01,"assumed_survival":0.25,"net_mean":-13.961599999999995,"loss_pct":99.76,"target_hit_pct":0,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":0},{"downside_price":19.84,"assumed_pre_expiry_probability":0.05,"assumed_survival":1,"net_mean":-13.213439999999995,"loss_pct":95.084,"target_hit_pct":0,"halfKelly_allin_dollars":0}]; seed92104, not observed probabilities; full loss plus2USD friction, capped1.702273/share payoff. No actual option stop paths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/MG?feed=indicative

At86.66 each, gap loss XLK13.7921094/XLE13.4894596/XLV11.1064541; joint38.3880231; commonriskceiling125.5102307. Model assumes r=2ATR/adjustedclose, g=max(.10,2abs worst historical adjusted open/priorclose gap), loss=N*(r+(1-r)*g+.005); not guaranteed loss bound. Target scenario dollar gains15.9207452/17.8722218/9.2091978 and grossR5.539238/5.240273/4.129368, not probabilities or actual outcomes. Account2%19.9852,position25%249.815,fund260. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

AccessedSep21 2026 direct issuer workbook XML; newest listed rows for XLK/XLE/XLV each exJun22 recordJun22 payJun24 2026: amounts.227918/.384876/.656252 respectively. September amount not present in retrieved rows; absence is not proof no distribution. Compare raw/all differences .22/.38/.64 only as basis diagnostic, not payout assertion. https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/spdr-etf-historical-distributions.xlsx

{"offer":20.35,"premium_to_offer_pct":1.9656019656019597,"put_breakeven":19.88,"put_costed_breakeven":19.86,"target_stock":18.297727272727272,"target_below_offer_pct":10.084878266696462,"offer_put_payoff":0,"prior_close19_84_payoff":0.16000000000000014,"prior_close19_84_break_even_probability":0.8749999999999991,"expiry_days_before_goshop":11,"minimum_event_expiry":"2026-11-03"}; research/mg_audit.py, seed92104. Legacy six normalized stock reactions from observation32462; current indicative quote. Scenarios assumed, not live probability or actual option PnL. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"n":6,"median_pct":9.511654330248309,"p80_pct":11.818181818181817,"hurdle_pct":4.19277108433735,"p80_payoff":1.702272727272728,"multiple":14.185606060606068,"signed_profitable":1,"net_mean":14.371212121212134,"bootstrap_mean_ci95":[-13.999999999999998,71.1136363636364],"loo_means":[20.04545454545456,-13.999999999999996,20.04545454545456,20.04545454545456,20.04545454545456,20.04545454545456],"train_proxy":{"return_pct":12.822727272727285,"drawdown_pct":1.4000000000000012,"win_rate_pct":33.33333333333333,"n":3,"net_dollars":[-13.999999999999998,156.2272727272728,-13.999999999999998]},"holdout_proxy":{"return_pct":-4.200000000000004,"drawdown_pct":4.200000000000004,"win_rate_pct":0,"n":3,"net_dollars":[-13.999999999999998,-13.999999999999998,-13.999999999999998]}}; research/mg_audit.py, seed92104. Legacy six normalized stock reactions from observation32462; current indicative quote. Scenarios assumed, not live probability or actual option PnL. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Sep21option_contracts ppind=false,putOI247/call408asSep17,multiplier100,size100,expiryOct16,standardDSXroot. Alpaca March2025currentFAQ: nonpennyunder3 typically.05increment; offincrementlimit routedtoNOMifpossible, otherwise rejected; >=3decimal limit/stop rejected. Thus.13notuniversallyinvalid butrouteconstrained;.065notvalidbrokerstop. Localfundexitthreshold may be synthetic, basisunverified; cannot impose brokerstopprecision blindly. IndicativeBBO derivative not actualOPRA; no inference .08/.13 are executable. https://alpaca.markets/support/options-pricing-increments-and-options-order-handling; option_contracts; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data

Sep21 list_jobs verifies281 active26remaining, last02:31UTC exit0 END11/11, nextSep22 02:31. Script cutoff now-1826days gives startSep21 2021,1254 rolling60 endpoints; P90 XLK.1837802423/XLE.2064166492/XLV.1063103161. Trading calculation anchors fivecalendar years to latestSep18 completed session,1255 endpoints, .1837150384/.2062338076/.1062681488. Difference is window convention, not new price evidence. Preserve455 target convention and recompute from completed session; collector is research only. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

PrimaryFeb19 2026 10K: Arrow9.5%net sales, foreign65%,China24%. Risk factors include supplier interruptions, acquisition integration, tariffs. No SEC-defined offbalancesheet third-party indebtedness guarantees asDec27 does not contradict later release of intra-group/contractual cross-guarantees. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/889331/000162828026009585/lfus-20251227.htm

AuditedFY2025 pp63–65,81: no customer>10%FY25; several foundries/OSAT largelyAsia, individual partner dependence persists; gold-driven assembly costs not fully compensated. Fixed wafer purchase obligations can convert demand weakness into inventory/unusedcapacity expense. No supplier-specific percentage found in reviewed sections. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/elmos-gb-2025-e.pdf

Primary Aug4 report H1 Jan-Jun2026: OCF52.984m minus intangible10.536m minusPPE8.328m plusdisposals.353m=34.473m cash-inclusive FCF; management operating-adjusted55.5m excludes21.063m incentive payments. H1 capex headline8.8m excludes capitalized development, total cash investments18.864m. Q2 cash-inclusiveFCF -6.199m. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/20260804_q2_2026_e.pdf

Primary audited FY2025 report p98 published March2026; as of Dec31 2025 vs38.959m year earlier. Mainly fixed Dortmund purchase obligation, but aggregate also leases, maintenance, insurance, delivery obligations. Due2026 122.470m;2027 33.956;2028 21.089;2029 14.202;2030 .027. Do not treat whole aggregate as fab wafers or as September-amended terms. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/elmos-gb-2025-e.pdf