Notes

Measured 2026-09-11 ~02:03UTC; completed Sep10 daily bars; issuer-independent SIP price history, delayed not executable. {"symbol":"CTAS","n":91,"date":"2026-09-10T04:00:00Z","close":198.44,"ret20":-2.2366735639,"sma20":201.73,"sma50":198.7178,"adr20":3.152655,"dollarvol20":350626183.0105001,"volratio":1.2512594028}; calendar membership is estimated discovery, not confirmed date; descriptive filters only. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Measured 2026-09-11 ~02:03UTC; completed Sep10 daily bars; issuer-independent SIP price history, delayed not executable. {"symbol":"CSX","n":91,"date":"2026-09-10T04:00:00Z","close":49.04,"ret20":-1.8021625951,"sma20":50.144,"sma50":50.088,"adr20":0.917,"dollarvol20":455088456.2409999,"volratio":1.1377471115}; calendar membership is estimated discovery, not confirmed date; descriptive filters only. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Measured 2026-09-11 ~02:03UTC; completed Sep10 daily bars; issuer-independent SIP price history, delayed not executable. {"symbol":"COST","n":91,"date":"2026-09-10T04:00:00Z","close":902.38,"ret20":-4.9701182108,"sma20":940.603,"sma50":940.7037,"adr20":14.25067,"dollarvol20":1733369848.9239998,"volratio":1.0666501441}; calendar membership is estimated discovery, not confirmed date; descriptive filters only. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Measured 2026-09-11 ~02:03UTC; completed Sep10 daily bars; issuer-independent SIP price history, delayed not executable. {"symbol":"DRI","n":91,"date":"2026-09-10T04:00:00Z","close":207.53,"ret20":-8.8501405481,"sma20":218.037,"sma50":209.5164,"adr20":5.462655,"dollarvol20":205032375.2285,"volratio":1.0587790324}; calendar membership is estimated discovery, not confirmed date; descriptive filters only. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Measured 2026-09-11 ~02:03UTC; completed Sep10 daily bars; issuer-independent SIP price history, delayed not executable. {"symbol":"CTRM","n":91,"date":"2026-09-10T04:00:00Z","close":2.41,"ret20":15.3110047847,"sma20":2.37675,"sma50":2.1801,"adr20":0.13698,"dollarvol20":137791.23875,"volratio":1.6678097524}; calendar membership is estimated discovery, not confirmed date; descriptive filters only. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Measured 2026-09-11 ~02:03UTC; completed Sep10 daily bars; issuer-independent SIP price history, delayed not executable. {"symbol":"EBF","n":91,"date":"2026-09-10T04:00:00Z","close":21.17,"ret20":-3.5974499089,"sma20":21.6265,"sma50":21.5884,"adr20":0.38896,"dollarvol20":3469785.3735,"volratio":0.842649973}; calendar membership is estimated discovery, not confirmed date; descriptive filters only. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Measured 2026-09-11 ~02:03UTC; completed Sep10 daily bars; issuer-independent SIP price history, delayed not executable. {"symbol":"DAL","n":91,"date":"2026-09-10T04:00:00Z","close":78.24,"ret20":-12.9989992216,"sma20":81.9245,"sma50":85.6822,"adr20":1.949965,"dollarvol20":408936962.975,"volratio":1.2123933367}; calendar membership is estimated discovery, not confirmed date; descriptive filters only. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Measured 2026-09-11 ~02:03UTC; completed Sep10 daily bars; issuer-independent SIP price history, delayed not executable. {"symbol":"CNXC","n":91,"date":"2026-09-10T04:00:00Z","close":27,"ret20":10.1591187271,"sma20":27.6525,"sma50":25.5096,"adr20":1.869145,"dollarvol20":35515338.057500005,"volratio":0.7363786716}; calendar membership is estimated discovery, not confirmed date; descriptive filters only. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Read02:03UTC: job200 lastRunAt01:15:17.386 exit0; full END21/21 and ENDLPG in notes00:15 and01:15, cadence60min;22runs remain,next02:15. Prior receipt uncertainty resolved. LPG54.41/prior55.20 signalfalse. Hash successes are not fresh disclosures; Bombardier challenge and CENTCOM HTTP error remain. query_research fund=supply notes 2113,2104; list_jobs fund=supply job200

ObservedSep11 02:01:53UTC; fresh<=300s 8/10. BTCbid/ask76899.66/76910.922,age15s,depth76.5/76.8USD,roundtripunchangedmid hurdle.517%;ETH2451.623/2452.44,26s,80.9/82.5,.535%;SOL99.274/99.385,31s,93.9/93.6,.614%;XRP1.34169/1.34726,.919%;UNI5.9904/6.0044,.737%;LTC52.5997/52.913,1.101%;HYPE78.8212/79.2,.985%;LINK11.46/11.484,.712%. USDCquote3681s old,USDG79791s old reject freshness. Hurdle100*((ask/bid)/.9975^2-1),25bpcredit-asset fees verifiedAlpacadocs; excludesfutureadverseslippage. Depthsnapshot not guaranteed market fill; full212.75cap exceedsmajorstopdepth. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-trading

Observed2026Sep11 02:01:53UTC. Both explorer endpoints tip4052054, timestamp1789092070,age43s; previous00UTCtip4051934 (+120blocks). Independent-endpoint access restored thissample; shared upstream independence unknown. Tracked recipient598.50048115BTC,reserve3601.47203772BTC unchanged confirmed balances; mempoolnet .00014572/.00003384 BTC. Recent56tx page zero recipient-controlled spends, incompletehistory. Operator text SHA2561fa338f6b403063d815b51327749e5cafdd00164b7e7f0e4f2a7f8568410238b unchanged: says software deployed and federation preparing coordinated restart. Operator economically interested and post date not extracted; observed chain progress and stale wording can coexist. No authenticated return established, balances not sale/ownership proof. https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://liquid.network/api/blocks ; https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte ; https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1qdlld6antmv4xug242ed83q7k4rqw50cwfns38szx4qu2f4jwaxxsuhwxxr ; https://x.com/Blockstream

Observed02:01UTC Sep11, periodSep4-10. PublishedUSD inventory36/36 present, not authenticatedAssets fullvenue list; USDG3/7days,others7/7. Dollarvolume sum(v*vw), top10:USDC9303020,USDG1899981,BTC731125,ETH442301,XRP206385,LTC203848,SOL193723,LINK158346,HYPE152543,UNI116410. No prior20-close-high breakout anywhere with sufficient21daycoverage. These are venuefeed volumes, not global turnover. Stablecoins retained in rank, excluded directionalthesis. Source closest available execution feed; missing universe/coverage explicitly limits ranking. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

2026Jan1-Sep10 253supplied dailyreturns PearsonBTC/ETH.911641099,BTC/SOL.879737322,ETH/SOL.879125217. Shared marketbeta, not causalregression. All52saved20dayholdouttrades direct formula100*(exit*(1-slip)/(entry*(1+slip))*.9975^2-1) match equity-normalized vectorbtreturns atmax2.84217e-14pp; firstdefault-both-directionharness failed countcheck, thenexplicitlongonly. vectorbttrade-return denominator excludedentryfee: scaledW/L/mean/CI by.9975, totalportfolio returns unchanged. 108maincells+12matchedcontrols;12/18hourlyholdoutneighbor/costcells positive, not all losing. Old36losingcells are separatecompressionrule. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; local vectorbt arithmetic audit

{"symbol":"SOL/USD","date":"2026-09-10 00:00:00+00:00","close":98.6025,"day_pct":-2.9058575036803203,"atr14":4.975069381535714,"atr_pct":5.045581381339939,"high20":110.5357,"low10":97.132857,"breakout_now":false,"sma50":86.343249,"sma200":82.8045320653425,"return20":5.2445352413491575,"range20_pct":28.320989087531935}; audit={"symbol":"SOL/USD","daily_n":746,"hourly_n":17881,"hourly_missing":7,"complete_days":742,"matched_days":742,"close_abs_diff_median_pct":0,"close_abs_diff_max_pct":0.115373887466097,"close_diff_over_10bp":2,"daily_first":"2024-08-26 00:00:00+00:00","hourly_first":"2024-08-26 16:00:00+00:00","hourly_last":"2026-09-10 23:00:00+00:00"} ObservedSep11~00:11UTC; fullSep10UTC close, no partialday. Latest23:00UTC hourlyclose matches; prior480hhigh equals20dayhigh printed; hourlysignalfalse. ATR simplemean14true ranges; SMA50/200; return20close. No actual stops/targets. SuppliedSOLhistory startsAug26'24; hourly firstday incomplete, so buyhold baselines have different firsteligible timestamps and are not like-for-like. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"symbol":"ETH/USD","date":"2026-09-10 00:00:00+00:00","close":2436.8075,"day_pct":-1.2518742148559414,"atr14":88.01349369021425,"atr_pct":3.6118361294527475,"high20":2565.9,"low10":2355.79,"breakout_now":false,"sma50":2147.8572899999995,"sma200":2049.1645706083277,"return20":-3.1449764361769605,"range20_pct":8.918876470313574}; audit={"symbol":"ETH/USD","daily_n":1045,"hourly_n":23612,"hourly_missing":4,"complete_days":981,"matched_days":981,"close_abs_diff_median_pct":0.01694851042531864,"close_abs_diff_max_pct":0.09229312604202011,"close_diff_over_10bp":0,"daily_first":"2023-11-01 00:00:00+00:00","hourly_first":"2024-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","hourly_last":"2026-09-10 23:00:00+00:00"} ObservedSep11~00:11UTC; fullSep10UTC close, no partialday. Latest23:00UTC hourlyclose matches; prior480hhigh equals20dayhigh printed; hourlysignalfalse. ATR simplemean14true ranges; SMA50/200; return20close. No actual stops/targets. SuppliedSOLhistory startsAug26'24; hourly firstday incomplete, so buyhold baselines have different firsteligible timestamps and are not like-for-like. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"symbol":"BTC/USD","date":"2026-09-10 00:00:00+00:00","close":76535.875,"day_pct":-2.232318443971726,"atr14":2283.5704312907837,"atr_pct":2.983660187187752,"high20":82233.502538071,"low10":76222.3285,"breakout_now":false,"sma50":70403.34736,"sma200":69966.12240708944,"return20":-2.292982023927015,"range20_pct":8.818843844822965}; audit={"symbol":"BTC/USD","daily_n":1045,"hourly_n":23612,"hourly_missing":4,"complete_days":981,"matched_days":981,"close_abs_diff_median_pct":0.008527941253000382,"close_abs_diff_max_pct":0.09466344180356634,"close_diff_over_10bp":0,"daily_first":"2023-11-01 00:00:00+00:00","hourly_first":"2024-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","hourly_last":"2026-09-10 23:00:00+00:00"} ObservedSep11~00:11UTC; fullSep10UTC close, no partialday. Latest23:00UTC hourlyclose matches; prior480hhigh equals20dayhigh printed; hourlysignalfalse. ATR simplemean14true ranges; SMA50/200; return20close. No actual stops/targets. SuppliedSOLhistory startsAug26'24; hourly firstday incomplete, so buyhold baselines have different firsteligible timestamps and are not like-for-like. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

ObservedSep11~00:06–00:12UTC; frozen2086/2089; vectorbtlongonly,25bp/side,train2024-25/REUSED2026Jan1-Sep10holdout; daily_matched holdout. Columns=["look","slippage_bp","return_pct","drawdown_pct","win_rate","sample","mean_pct","avg_win","avg_loss","half_kelly","ci_low","ci_high","buy_hold_pct","bars"]; rows=[[20,10,-7.586258,20.455746,16.666667,6,-0.917702,18.777774,4.856797,-0.024436,-6.581663,7.325721,-20.818695,252],[20,20,-8.688598,21.010731,16.666667,6,-1.115669,18.540455,5.046894,-0.030087,-6.768314,7.111283,-20.818695,252]]. Returns mean/W/L/CI equity-normalized; all52savedholdouttrades match rawfills+fees <=2.84e-14pp. Neighbor10/30 not selected. Next-open cadence; no live15min/trailing validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

ObservedSep11~00:06–00:12UTC; frozen2086/2089; vectorbtlongonly,25bp/side,train2024-25/REUSED2026Jan1-Sep10holdout; daily_matched train. Columns=["look","slippage_bp","return_pct","drawdown_pct","win_rate","sample","mean_pct","avg_win","avg_loss","half_kelly","ci_low","ci_high","buy_hold_pct","bars"]; rows=[[20,10,21.13546,31.58847,44.444444,9,3.449974,19.992952,9.784408,0.08628,-7.081952,15.00619,-20.794146,490],[20,20,18.974523,31.861571,44.444444,9,3.243281,19.753205,9.964659,0.082095,-7.267603,14.776407,-20.794146,490]]. Returns mean/W/L/CI equity-normalized; all52savedholdouttrades match rawfills+fees <=2.84e-14pp. Neighbor10/30 not selected. Next-open cadence; no live15min/trailing validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

ObservedSep11~00:06–00:12UTC; frozen2086/2089; vectorbtlongonly,25bp/side,train2024-25/REUSED2026Jan1-Sep10holdout; hourly holdout. Columns=["look","slippage_bp","return_pct","drawdown_pct","win_rate","sample","mean_pct","avg_win","avg_loss","half_kelly","ci_low","ci_high","buy_hold_pct","bars"]; rows=[[10,10,9.345153,27.569157,62.5,8,1.533879,6.987533,7.555546,0.109758,-4.364668,8.350879,-20.818695,6071],[10,20,7.609548,28.289858,62.5,8,1.331013,6.773772,7.740251,0.098248,-4.555748,8.134394,-20.818695,6071],[20,10,-2.192042,24.527633,33.333333,6,0.045252,11.903193,5.883718,0.001901,-6.472458,8.335059,-20.818695,6071],[20,20,-3.358726,25.129005,33.333333,6,-0.154639,11.67961,6.071763,-0.00662,-6.659327,8.118605,-20.818695,6071],[30,10,-6.64405,22.497765,40,5,-0.929879,9.881044,8.137161,-0.047054,-8.386799,8.092323,-20.818695,6071],[30,20,-7.57296,22.961387,40,5,-1.127822,9.661501,8.320704,-0.058367,-8.569843,7.876354,-20.818695,6071]]. Returns mean/W/L/CI equity-normalized; all52savedholdouttrades match rawfills+fees <=2.84e-14pp. Neighbor10/30 not selected. Next-open cadence; no live15min/trailing validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

ObservedSep11~00:06–00:12UTC; frozen2086/2089; vectorbtlongonly,25bp/side,train2024-25/REUSED2026Jan1-Sep10holdout; hourly train. Columns=["look","slippage_bp","return_pct","drawdown_pct","win_rate","sample","mean_pct","avg_win","avg_loss","half_kelly","ci_low","ci_high","buy_hold_pct","bars"]; rows=[[10,10,-21.381383,48.909095,41.176471,17,-0.651421,11.855058,9.405956,-0.027474,-6.467595,5.836389,586.352958,11810],[10,20,-24.009491,50.070853,41.176471,17,-0.84992,11.631571,9.586964,-0.036535,-6.654474,5.624928,586.352958,11810],[20,10,7.389004,36.409661,33.333333,12,1.437009,18.850121,7.269548,0.038117,-5.701861,9.509485,586.352958,11810],[20,20,4.842344,37.168187,33.333333,12,1.234337,18.612658,7.454824,0.033159,-5.890269,9.290685,586.352958,11810],[30,10,-19.553203,47.815973,25,12,-0.95177,21.030763,8.279282,-0.022628,-7.853463,7.374207,586.352958,11810],[30,20,-21.460946,48.438441,25,12,-1.149669,20.788943,8.46254,-0.027651,-8.037572,7.159673,586.352958,11810]]. Returns mean/W/L/CI equity-normalized; all52savedholdouttrades match rawfills+fees <=2.84e-14pp. Neighbor10/30 not selected. Next-open cadence; no live15min/trailing validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

ObservedSep11~00:06–00:12UTC; frozen2086/2089; vectorbtlongonly,25bp/side,train2024-25/REUSED2026Jan1-Sep10holdout; reconstructed holdout. Columns=["look","slippage_bp","return_pct","drawdown_pct","win_rate","sample","mean_pct","avg_win","avg_loss","half_kelly","ci_low","ci_high","buy_hold_pct","bars"]; rows=[[10,10,13.537746,24.589513,50,6,2.670119,10.784778,5.44454,0.123791,-5.267511,11.59461,-20.818695,252],[10,20,12.183432,25.040622,33.333333,6,2.464983,15.939789,4.27242,0.077322,-5.456787,11.371643,-20.818695,252],[20,10,-7.586258,20.455746,16.666667,6,-0.917702,18.777774,4.856797,-0.024436,-6.581663,7.325721,-20.818695,252],[20,20,-8.688598,21.010731,16.666667,6,-1.115669,18.540455,5.046894,-0.030087,-6.768314,7.111283,-20.818695,252],[30,10,-8.194319,16.712551,25,4,-1.475029,18.777774,8.225963,-0.039276,-8.658657,12.073575,-20.818695,252],[30,20,-8.925836,16.962164,25,4,-1.671882,18.540455,8.409328,-0.045087,-8.841158,11.849652,-20.818695,252]]. Returns mean/W/L/CI equity-normalized; all52savedholdouttrades match rawfills+fees <=2.84e-14pp. Neighbor10/30 not selected. Next-open cadence; no live15min/trailing validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

ObservedSep11~00:06–00:12UTC; frozen2086/2089; vectorbtlongonly,25bp/side,train2024-25/REUSED2026Jan1-Sep10holdout; reconstructed train. Columns=["look","slippage_bp","return_pct","drawdown_pct","win_rate","sample","mean_pct","avg_win","avg_loss","half_kelly","ci_low","ci_high","buy_hold_pct","bars"]; rows=[[10,10,-31.457914,53.121168,40,15,-1.3907,13.49779,11.31636,-0.051516,-8.55102,6.901806,-20.794146,490],[10,20,-33.483643,54.113388,40,15,-1.587722,13.271021,11.49355,-0.059819,-8.733735,6.688216,-20.794146,490],[20,10,21.13546,31.58847,44.444444,9,3.449974,19.992952,9.784408,0.08628,-7.081952,15.00619,-20.794146,490],[20,20,18.974523,31.861571,44.444444,9,3.243281,19.753205,9.964659,0.082095,-7.267603,14.776407,-20.794146,490],[30,10,13.928635,29.747221,42.857143,7,3.338385,22.111861,10.741723,0.075489,-8.651304,17.686589,-20.794146,490],[30,20,12.344743,30.167476,42.857143,7,3.131914,21.867881,10.920061,0.07161,-8.833819,17.45145,-20.794146,490]]. Returns mean/W/L/CI equity-normalized; all52savedholdouttrades match rawfills+fees <=2.84e-14pp. Neighbor10/30 not selected. Next-open cadence; no live15min/trailing validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

ObservedSep11~00:06–00:12UTC; frozen2086/2089; vectorbtlongonly,25bp/side,train2024-25/REUSED2026Jan1-Sep10holdout; daily holdout. Columns=["look","slippage_bp","return_pct","drawdown_pct","win_rate","sample","mean_pct","avg_win","avg_loss","half_kelly","ci_low","ci_high","buy_hold_pct","bars"]; rows=[[10,10,-2.645643,35.338336,42.857143,7,0.252423,10.784778,7.646843,0.011703,-7.701196,9.051923,-20.818695,253],[10,20,-3.99911,35.853567,28.571429,7,0.052118,15.939789,6.30295,0.001635,-7.885609,8.834037,-20.818695,253],[20,10,-20.758684,31.793786,14.285714,7,-2.822852,18.777774,6.422956,-0.075165,-9.025611,4.782228,-20.818695,253],[20,20,-21.860335,32.404991,14.285714,7,-3.017012,18.540455,6.609924,-0.081363,-9.207378,4.572872,-20.818695,253],[30,10,-21.280073,28.584138,20,5,-4.030773,18.777774,9.73291,-0.107328,-11.688253,7.859284,-20.818695,253],[30,20,-22.063351,28.940433,20,5,-4.22252,18.540455,9.913264,-0.113873,-11.8647,7.643781,-20.818695,253]]. Returns mean/W/L/CI equity-normalized; all52savedholdouttrades match rawfills+fees <=2.84e-14pp. Neighbor10/30 not selected. Next-open cadence; no live15min/trailing validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars