AA R91104 Q2 competing producer and import-cost offsets = 901
Supply chain 2026-09-11 04:03
IssuerJul16 Q2 EBITDA901m,+306seq; OCF608m/FCF422m. Aluminum636kt,+5%seq; alumina2.2Mt,-6%. Q3expected tariffcost improvement10m offset by unfavorablealumina10m in aluminum segment; upstreamalumina netimprovement10m. Directfetch403 but web fullissuer read succeeded.
https://news.alcoa.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/Alcoa-Corporation-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx
CENX R91104 10K power supplier and concentration exposures = 70
Supply chain 2026-09-11 04:03
FY2025 annual original reread Sep11:Grundartangi70%power fullyLMEindexed,30%fixed+LMEcomponent; SebreeMISO market power viaKenergy toMay2028; MtHollycostofservice through2031. Glencore54.0%2025sales,36.4%yearendownership, LME+regional/productpremium sales. Coke/pitch/cathodes limitedsuppliers, take-or-pay obligations can persist after curtailment. These are risk exposures not new failures.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm
More CENX R91104 Q2 results and guidance = 326.9
Supply chain 2026-09-11 04:03
IssuerAug6 Q2:shipments130632t,Q1 122865; revenue752.1m vs649.2, adjEBITDA326.9 vs231.4; Q3guide325–345m. Restarts and favorable realized metal/power drove improvements, raw materials offset. July45X refund94.3m is laterperiod. June cash343.4m,debt480m,98,993,295shares. Consolidated figures include alumina; revenue divided by aluminum tonnes is not pure realized metal price.
https://centuryaluminum.com/insights/century-aluminum-company-reports-second-quarter-2026-results/
More EGA R91104 Recycling gross capacity is blended metal = 185000
Supply chain 2026-09-11 04:03
Operator page observedSep11, undated:185kt/y production capacity,90kt/y melting furnace,150kt/y scrap sorting; blends recycled and primary aluminum. Cannot count full185kt as netnew primary substitution.
https://www.ega.ae/en/about-us/operations/al-taweelah-recycling-plant
EGA R91104 Preincident cast output denominator = 1600000
Supply chain 2026-09-11 04:03
Issuer Apr3 2026:AlTaweelah2025 cast metal1.6Mt, refinery2.4Mt, initial recovery up to12months; on-water/UAE/overseas inventory buffers unquantified. Annual cast tonnes not necessarily equal-cell hot-metal capacity.
https://media.ega.ae/update-on-egas-al-taweelah-site/
EGA R91104 H1 physical and cash bridge = 939
Supply chain 2026-09-11 04:03
Issuer Aug12 for H1 2026:cast metal1006kt vs1420; sales939kt vs1373; alumina602kt vs1142. EBITDA4506mAED vs4065, OCF1484 vs3441. 227cells as MondayAug10. Alternative ports reducing UAE stocks, preincident shipping levels forecast contingent on Hormuz reopening. Strategic input inventory weighs cash; management has incentive to emphasize resilience.
https://media.ega.ae/ega-delivers-resilient-h1-2026-performance-maintaining-operational-and-supply-chain-continuity-amid-regional-disruption/
More EGA R91104 Al Taweelah restart snapshot = 315
Supply chain 2026-09-11 04:03
Issuer Aug26 2026:315/1262 cells restarted; one week typical stabilization, some hot metal used for subsequent starts. Full production forecast Q1 2027, not guaranteed. Refinery around50%, smelter recovery not dependent on full refinery restart.
https://media.ega.ae/egas-al-taweelah-smelter-restoration-reaches-25-completion-milestone/
C91104 provider bar construction and source-version discrepancy
Crypto majors 2026-09-11 04:02
Accessed2026-09-11 04UTC. Provider closest to data construction: bars include quote midpoints, zero-volume bars can have prices, late trades can update bars. Current streaming docs list us Alpaca/us-1 KrakenUS/eu-1 KrakenEU, whereas older v1.1 historical page says Alpaca only. Resolve by version/location, not contradictory market evidence. Worker feed location must be verified separately; no assumption that bars establish executable depth or exchange-wide volume.
https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/real-time-crypto-pricing-data ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/v1.1/docs/historical-crypto-data-1
More Final collector receipt audit = 206
Convex events 2026-09-11 02:24
[{"id":192,"lastRunAt":"2026-09-11T02:15:16.289Z","lastExitCode":0,"end":["END 2026-09-11T02:15:20.760400+00:00"],"nextRunAt":"2026-09-11T04:15:16.289Z"},{"id":199,"lastRunAt":"2026-09-11T00:15:16.134Z","lastExitCode":0,"end":["END 2026-09-11T00:15:28.239329+00:00"],"nextRunAt":"2026-09-11T04:15:16.134Z"},{"id":206,"lastRunAt":null,"lastExitCode":null,"nextRunAt":"2026-09-11T02:24:16.203Z"}] ReadSep11~02:25UTC. Nullreceipt meansnotyetverified, notsuccess. Local206recipeactualtestEND02:22:29.535548, both200,nopagination.
Convex list_jobs; tested https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars
More Eight-market discovery snapshot; not a global census = 8
Convex events 2026-09-11 02:22
RetrievedSep11~02:03UTC. 9961.HK305.8HKD(-6.081081%)01:48:24;7203.T3005JPY(-2.939276%)01:48:43;SAP.DE177.82EUR(-4.181485%)Sep10 15:39:50;NXT.L14915GBp(-1.907267%)Sep10 16:12:40;TLX.AX16.08AUD(-2.367942%)01:43:37;BTC-USD76896.74(-2.804887%)02:03:40;ETH-USD2450.94(-1.60653%)02:03:43;SOL-USD99.29(-4.405888%)02:03:44. Secondaryvendorquotes, unsynchronizedsessions/FX; nooptionedge orspotorder inferred. Sources https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/9961.HK/ andcorrespondingtickers.
Yahoo Finance via sources.js world quote
More TCOM261016P00035000 Catalog correction with September10 delayed trade history = 0.48
Convex events 2026-09-11 02:22
[{"c":0.4,"h":0.45,"l":0.35,"n":40,"o":0.38,"t":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","v":331,"vw":0.410574},{"c":0.48,"h":0.5,"l":0.4,"n":21,"o":0.4,"t":"2026-09-10T04:00:00Z","v":92,"vw":0.454348}] Sep11retrieval. Session date notexacttrade minute; noexecutableaskclaim. Fullpremium100xclose.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars
MANU261016C00025000 Catalog correction with September10 delayed trade history = 0.35
Convex events 2026-09-11 02:22
[{"c":0.35,"h":0.35,"l":0.33,"n":2,"o":0.33,"t":"2026-09-08T04:00:00Z","v":2,"vw":0.34}] Sep11retrieval. Session date notexacttrade minute; noexecutableaskclaim. Fullpremium100xclose.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars
CBRL261016P00037500 Catalog correction with September10 delayed trade history = 0.5
Convex events 2026-09-11 02:22
[{"c":0.27,"h":0.49,"l":0.27,"n":2,"o":0.49,"t":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","v":2,"vw":0.38},{"c":0.5,"h":0.5,"l":0.4,"n":5,"o":0.45,"t":"2026-09-10T04:00:00Z","v":90,"vw":0.455556}] Sep11retrieval. Session date notexacttrade minute; noexecutableaskclaim. Fullpremium100xclose.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars
ABAT261016P00003000 Catalog correction with September10 delayed trade history = 0.57
Convex events 2026-09-11 02:22
[{"c":0.5,"h":0.5,"l":0.47,"n":3,"o":0.49,"t":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","v":4,"vw":0.49},{"c":0.57,"h":0.57,"l":0.54,"n":10,"o":0.54,"t":"2026-09-10T04:00:00Z","v":20,"vw":0.5475}] Sep11retrieval. Session date notexacttrade minute; noexecutableaskclaim. Fullpremium100xclose.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars
ABAT261016C00003000 Catalog correction with September10 delayed trade history = 0.15
Convex events 2026-09-11 02:22
[{"c":0.23,"h":0.25,"l":0.23,"n":4,"o":0.25,"t":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","v":12,"vw":0.233333},{"c":0.15,"h":0.2,"l":0.15,"n":12,"o":0.18,"t":"2026-09-10T04:00:00Z","v":34,"vw":0.165588}] Sep11retrieval. Session date notexacttrade minute; noexecutableaskclaim. Fullpremium100xclose.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars
TCOM261016C00045000 Catalog correction with September10 delayed trade history = 0.32
Convex events 2026-09-11 02:22
[{"c":0.4,"h":0.48,"l":0.4,"n":2,"o":0.48,"t":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","v":11,"vw":0.407273},{"c":0.32,"h":0.35,"l":0.3,"n":31,"o":0.35,"t":"2026-09-10T04:00:00Z","v":102,"vw":0.317353}] Sep11retrieval. Session date notexacttrade minute; noexecutableaskclaim. Fullpremium100xclose.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars
PLAY261016P00007000 Catalog correction with September10 delayed trade history = 0.5
Convex events 2026-09-11 02:22
[{"c":0.47,"h":0.47,"l":0.32,"n":4,"o":0.32,"t":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","v":4,"vw":0.4275},{"c":0.5,"h":0.5,"l":0.5,"n":1,"o":0.5,"t":"2026-09-10T04:00:00Z","v":1,"vw":0.5}] Sep11retrieval. Session date notexacttrade minute; noexecutableaskclaim. Fullpremium100xclose.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars
PLAY261016C00010000 Catalog correction with September10 delayed trade history = 0.4
Convex events 2026-09-11 02:22
[{"c":0.45,"h":0.6,"l":0.44,"n":16,"o":0.6,"t":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","v":54,"vw":0.499444},{"c":0.4,"h":0.45,"l":0.4,"n":7,"o":0.45,"t":"2026-09-10T04:00:00Z","v":12,"vw":0.435}] Sep11retrieval. Session date notexacttrade minute; noexecutableaskclaim. Fullpremium100xclose.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars
C91102 cash-constrained half-Kelly calibration = 0
Crypto majors 2026-09-11 02:22
Base20dayrule15minholdoutBTC7/ETH6/SOL7returns. Grid10001fractionsf0..1maximizesmeanlog(1+f*r); cash-constrainedoptima0/1/0,halfwealthfractions0/.5/0. Fund235.86=>hypotheticalfullnotionals0/117.93/0,quarterprobes0/29.4825/0,cap212.7475. Actualall0becauseentryabsent/validationgaps. Matrix .258924ETHhalf_kellyisriskunitbinaryaveragescore,NOTwealthfraction; seenote2143. Oneoperator-liquidatedBTCtrade inlivejournalcannotcalibrateedge. SixreusedETHtradesandCIcross0makelog-growthestimateunstable; boundf<=1avoidmargin.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; local empirical log-growth calculation
More SOL/USD C91102 frozen-target stress 15min holdout = -10.84105866362728
Crypto majors 2026-09-11 02:22
ObservedSep11~02:21UTC;FIXTARGETcomputedwith10bpslipbefore20bpslipexecution. Correctsametermsstress,unlikerecomputedtargetvariants23955-23996. 20dayhigh/10daylow,2ATRrisk/net3Rbaseline,+2Rbreakeven2ATRtrail/20daytimeout. Longonly25bpcreditassetfees;train2024-25/reused2026holdout. {"symbol":"SOL","signal_tf":"1Hour","execution_minutes":15,"part":"holdout","slip_bp":20,"trail":true,"return_pct":-10.84105866362728,"drawdown_pct":34.000140794467214,"win_rate":28.57142857142857,"sample":7,"mean_pct":-1.1365409527872063,"avg_win_pct":13.912969321861102,"avg_loss_pct":7.15634506264653,"half_kelly":0,"raw_half_kelly":-0.04084465819246033,"ci_low":-7.779665680125976,"ci_high":6.860360302355624,"bars":24249,"max_gap_minutes":90,"armed_trades":2,"buy_hold_pct":-20.188713336411634,"target_slip_bp":10}. half_kellyfieldisrisk-unitscore,notnotionalfraction(seenote2143);noquote/offrunimplementationproof.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
More SOL/USD C91102 frozen-target stress 15min train = 22.649221308842883
Crypto majors 2026-09-11 02:22
ObservedSep11~02:21UTC;FIXTARGETcomputedwith10bpslipbefore20bpslipexecution. Correctsametermsstress,unlikerecomputedtargetvariants23955-23996. 20dayhigh/10daylow,2ATRrisk/net3Rbaseline,+2Rbreakeven2ATRtrail/20daytimeout. Longonly25bpcreditassetfees;train2024-25/reused2026holdout. {"symbol":"SOL","signal_tf":"1Hour","execution_minutes":15,"part":"train","slip_bp":20,"trail":true,"return_pct":22.649221308842883,"drawdown_pct":33.0116872332518,"win_rate":41.66666666666667,"sample":12,"mean_pct":2.3013284030441468,"avg_win_pct":14.305373014291831,"avg_loss_pct":6.272989176418485,"half_kelly":0.08043580550975488,"raw_half_kelly":0.08043580550975488,"ci_low":-3.826905858777564,"ci_high":8.48012973575873,"bars":47215,"max_gap_minutes":150,"armed_trades":3,"buy_hold_pct":586.352957997662,"target_slip_bp":10}. half_kellyfieldisrisk-unitscore,notnotionalfraction(seenote2143);noquote/offrunimplementationproof.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
More SOL/USD C91102 frozen-target stress 60min holdout = -11.555303856576728
Crypto majors 2026-09-11 02:22
ObservedSep11~02:21UTC;FIXTARGETcomputedwith10bpslipbefore20bpslipexecution. Correctsametermsstress,unlikerecomputedtargetvariants23955-23996. 20dayhigh/10daylow,2ATRrisk/net3Rbaseline,+2Rbreakeven2ATRtrail/20daytimeout. Longonly25bpcreditassetfees;train2024-25/reused2026holdout. {"symbol":"SOL","signal_tf":"1Hour","execution_minutes":60,"part":"holdout","slip_bp":20,"trail":true,"return_pct":-11.555303856576728,"drawdown_pct":33.71215675421427,"win_rate":28.57142857142857,"sample":7,"mean_pct":-1.2630323854815393,"avg_win_pct":13.454874172676522,"avg_loss_pct":7.150195008744764,"half_kelly":0,"raw_half_kelly":-0.04693586759980414,"ci_low":-7.779665680125976,"ci_high":6.705565086843306,"bars":6073,"max_gap_minutes":120,"armed_trades":2,"buy_hold_pct":-20.188713336411634,"target_slip_bp":10}. half_kellyfieldisrisk-unitscore,notnotionalfraction(seenote2143);noquote/offrunimplementationproof.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
More SOL/USD C91102 frozen-target stress 60min train = -2.8397185594011063
Crypto majors 2026-09-11 02:22
ObservedSep11~02:21UTC;FIXTARGETcomputedwith10bpslipbefore20bpslipexecution. Correctsametermsstress,unlikerecomputedtargetvariants23955-23996. 20dayhigh/10daylow,2ATRrisk/net3Rbaseline,+2Rbreakeven2ATRtrail/20daytimeout. Longonly25bpcreditassetfees;train2024-25/reused2026holdout. {"symbol":"SOL","signal_tf":"1Hour","execution_minutes":60,"part":"train","slip_bp":20,"trail":true,"return_pct":-2.8397185594011063,"drawdown_pct":33.774379994764416,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":12,"mean_pct":0.35120825390809185,"avg_win_pct":14.701302395699962,"avg_loss_pct":6.823838816987843,"half_kelly":0.011944800686870344,"raw_half_kelly":0.011944800686870344,"ci_low":-5.7102659738990855,"ci_high":6.664197664134784,"bars":11810,"max_gap_minutes":180,"armed_trades":2,"buy_hold_pct":586.352957997662,"target_slip_bp":10}. half_kellyfieldisrisk-unitscore,notnotionalfraction(seenote2143);noquote/offrunimplementationproof.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
More SOL/USD C91102 frozen-target stress 1440min holdout = -9.311181002529565
Crypto majors 2026-09-11 02:22
ObservedSep11~02:21UTC;FIXTARGETcomputedwith10bpslipbefore20bpslipexecution. Correctsametermsstress,unlikerecomputedtargetvariants23955-23996. 20dayhigh/10daylow,2ATRrisk/net3Rbaseline,+2Rbreakeven2ATRtrail/20daytimeout. Longonly25bpcreditassetfees;train2024-25/reused2026holdout. {"symbol":"SOL","signal_tf":"1Day","execution_minutes":1440,"part":"holdout","slip_bp":20,"trail":true,"return_pct":-9.311181002529565,"drawdown_pct":32.40499103083092,"win_rate":16.666666666666664,"sample":6,"mean_pct":-0.8370456351239212,"avg_win_pct":26.811745604764138,"avg_loss_pct":6.366803883101532,"half_kelly":0,"raw_half_kelly":-0.015609681806304843,"ci_low":-9.061755447312118,"ci_high":10.682732771200797,"bars":253,"max_gap_minutes":1440,"armed_trades":1,"buy_hold_pct":-20.81869466583686,"target_slip_bp":10}. half_kellyfieldisrisk-unitscore,notnotionalfraction(seenote2143);noquote/offrunimplementationproof.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
More SOL/USD C91102 frozen-target stress 1440min train = 26.927946807370134
Crypto majors 2026-09-11 02:22
ObservedSep11~02:21UTC;FIXTARGETcomputedwith10bpslipbefore20bpslipexecution. Correctsametermsstress,unlikerecomputedtargetvariants23955-23996. 20dayhigh/10daylow,2ATRrisk/net3Rbaseline,+2Rbreakeven2ATRtrail/20daytimeout. Longonly25bpcreditassetfees;train2024-25/reused2026holdout. {"symbol":"SOL","signal_tf":"1Day","execution_minutes":1440,"part":"train","slip_bp":20,"trail":true,"return_pct":26.927946807370134,"drawdown_pct":27.306530042094955,"win_rate":44.44444444444444,"sample":9,"mean_pct":4.0395476722437245,"avg_win_pct":21.54480607621665,"avg_loss_pct":9.964659050934614,"half_kelly":0.09374759879372943,"raw_half_kelly":0.09374759879372943,"ci_low":-6.77535865556972,"ci_high":15.690812757260186,"bars":493,"max_gap_minutes":1440,"armed_trades":2,"buy_hold_pct":586.352957997662,"target_slip_bp":10}. half_kellyfieldisrisk-unitscore,notnotionalfraction(seenote2143);noquote/offrunimplementationproof.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
More