Notes

{"key":"primary5_15_train","model":"primary5","period":"train","slippage_bp":15,"first":"2016-01-04 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2020-12-31 05:00:00+00:00","return":-40.6359105787121,"drawdown":52.985613481997795,"CAGR":-9.911618421892365,"win_rate":40.45454545454545,"sample":220,"mean_trade_pct":-0.20994121671280933,"avg_win_pct":1.9087882677582033,"avg_loss_pct":1.6493833855518942,"mean_CI95_pct":[-0.45947011023146633,0.0412389443528169],"halfKelly":0,"reasons":{"stop":102,"time":101,"gap_stop":11,"target":6},"partials":22,"same_day":32,"vbt_reconciled":true,"vbt_orders":462,"trade_months":59,"market":{"beta":0.43599035648745643,"alpha_ann_pct":-15.841534710085352,"alpha_t_HAC5":-2.7158883600795862,"corr":0.45587077714008295}} Daily proxy. All20cells reconciled. Training2016–2020/test2021–Sep10; inspected history, no globallyuntouchedclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json

{"key":"primary5_5_test","model":"primary5","period":"test","slippage_bp":5,"first":"2021-01-04 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-10 04:00:00+00:00","return":34.955623206025166,"drawdown":25.949258144945087,"CAGR":5.432591073583426,"win_rate":46.666666666666664,"sample":255,"mean_trade_pct":0.14989690199317193,"avg_win_pct":2.381974369255385,"avg_loss_pct":1.803170881861264,"mean_CI95_pct":[-0.14919233063956544,0.4504968275114483],"halfKelly":0.03146484360367624,"reasons":{"gap_target":2,"stop":103,"time":128,"gap_stop":15,"target":7},"partials":36,"same_day":27,"vbt_reconciled":true,"vbt_orders":546,"trade_months":68,"market":{"beta":0.4537984863487275,"alpha_ann_pct":-0.05169088881697973,"alpha_t_HAC5":-0.008227253306754004,"corr":0.4321791844578191}} Daily proxy. All20cells reconciled. Training2016–2020/test2021–Sep10; inspected history, no globallyuntouchedclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json

{"key":"primary5_5_train","model":"primary5","period":"train","slippage_bp":5,"first":"2016-01-04 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2020-12-31 05:00:00+00:00","return":-0.6857246839560127,"drawdown":29.118889716683437,"CAGR":-0.13763182310864153,"win_rate":46.36363636363636,"sample":220,"mean_trade_pct":0.024365250431874562,"avg_win_pct":1.9143884043753185,"avg_loss_pct":1.6093835775531367,"mean_CI95_pct":[-0.21038356390757,0.27862159953439963],"halfKelly":0.006363716572924227,"reasons":{"gap_stop":12,"time":114,"stop":88,"target":6},"partials":26,"same_day":25,"vbt_reconciled":true,"vbt_orders":466,"trade_months":59,"market":{"beta":0.4711988795120574,"alpha_ann_pct":-6.095127100155749,"alpha_t_HAC5":-1.0430828280523226,"corr":0.49140026318119573}} Daily proxy. All20cells reconciled. Training2016–2020/test2021–Sep10; inspected history, no globallyuntouchedclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json

ObservedSep11 04UTC,2024Jan1-Sep11 00UTC2026;SOLbeginsAug26 2024. Full pagination, deduplicate inclusiveyearboundaries, exclude partialSep11. {"s":"SOL","daily":746,"hourly":17881,"full_days":742,"partial_days":4,"hour_zero_v":3101,"max_hour_gap":3,"o_mismatch_n":11,"o_max_abs":13.046000000000006,"o_median_rel_bp":0,"h_mismatch_n":7,"h_max_abs":8.960177664500009,"h_median_rel_bp":0,"l_mismatch_n":20,"l_max_abs":14.027000000000001,"l_median_rel_bp":0,"c_mismatch_n":319,"c_max_abs":0.25,"c_median_rel_bp":0,"v_mismatch_n":13,"v_max_abs":2077.5672703439996,"v_median_rel_bp":0,"daily_signal_disagreements":1}. Daily_signal_disagreements initially compares nativefull versus aggregatefull-day input and therefore includes coveragegating; not pure priceeffect. Largest dailyopen differences cluster2025Nov-Dec, require originalfeed attribution; no retrospective correction presumed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

ObservedSep11 04UTC,2024Jan1-Sep11 00UTC2026;SOLbeginsAug26 2024. Full pagination, deduplicate inclusiveyearboundaries, exclude partialSep11. {"s":"ETH","daily":984,"hourly":23612,"full_days":981,"partial_days":3,"hour_zero_v":2229,"max_hour_gap":3,"o_mismatch_n":10,"o_max_abs":221.29749999999967,"o_median_rel_bp":0,"h_mismatch_n":7,"h_max_abs":27.427500000000236,"h_median_rel_bp":0,"l_mismatch_n":6,"l_max_abs":191.70150000000012,"l_median_rel_bp":0,"c_mismatch_n":559,"c_max_abs":2.8404999999997926,"c_median_rel_bp":1.6951383432305234,"v_mismatch_n":19,"v_max_abs":95.91480664299999,"v_median_rel_bp":0,"daily_signal_disagreements":1}. Daily_signal_disagreements initially compares nativefull versus aggregatefull-day input and therefore includes coveragegating; not pure priceeffect. Largest dailyopen differences cluster2025Nov-Dec, require originalfeed attribution; no retrospective correction presumed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

ObservedSep11 04UTC,2024Jan1-Sep11 00UTC2026;SOLbeginsAug26 2024. Full pagination, deduplicate inclusiveyearboundaries, exclude partialSep11. {"s":"BTC","daily":984,"hourly":23612,"full_days":981,"partial_days":3,"hour_zero_v":729,"max_hour_gap":3,"o_mismatch_n":12,"o_max_abs":5354.311999999991,"o_median_rel_bp":0,"h_mismatch_n":6,"h_max_abs":2037.4205169691995,"h_median_rel_bp":0,"l_mismatch_n":18,"l_max_abs":3434.768223786392,"l_median_rel_bp":0,"c_mismatch_n":559,"c_max_abs":95.1475000000064,"c_median_rel_bp":0.8528668572850484,"v_mismatch_n":19,"v_max_abs":7.976789079,"v_median_rel_bp":0,"daily_signal_disagreements":8}. Daily_signal_disagreements initially compares nativefull versus aggregatefull-day input and therefore includes coveragegating; not pure priceeffect. Largest dailyopen differences cluster2025Nov-Dec, require originalfeed attribution; no retrospective correction presumed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"CENX_mcap_proxy_m":4391.3425662,"H1_FCF_m":101.6,"Q3_mid_growth_pct":2.477821963903337,"Sebree_power_MWh_per_t":15.33,"Sebree_500premium_breakeven_power_increase":32.615786040443574,"CSTM_Q2_exlag_EBITDA_m":310,"CSTM_Q2_lag_fraction_pct":29.38496583143508,"CSTM_Q2_exlag_EBITDA_growth_pct":87.87878787878789,"CSTM_H2_FCF_needed_m":205,"CSTM_H2_H1_FCF_ratio":2.1578947368421053,"CENX_EV_proxy_m":4527.9425662,"CENX_EV_annualQ2_EBITDA":3.462788747476293,"CENX_H1FCF_annualized_yield_pct":4.6272864605012325}; Calculated in quantify.py. Derived scenario, not observed future outcome. Full source relationships in analysis2487 and observations24090–96/24138–44; constant cell speed and equal-cell cast output are approximations; valuations use June share count and Sep10 price. https://centuryaluminum.com/insights/century-aluminum-company-reports-second-quarter-2026-results/

[{"premium_change_per_t":500,"US_capacity_tpy":450000,"Sebree_power_change_MWh":10,"annual_US_gross_premium_m":225,"annual_Sebree_cost_m":33.726,"annual_before_other_offsets_m":191.274,"quarter_before_other_offsets_m":47.8185},{"premium_change_per_t":500,"US_capacity_tpy":450000,"Sebree_power_change_MWh":25,"annual_US_gross_premium_m":225,"annual_Sebree_cost_m":84.315,"annual_before_other_offsets_m":140.685,"quarter_before_other_offsets_m":35.17125},{"premium_change_per_t":500,"US_capacity_tpy":450000,"Sebree_power_change_MWh":50,"annual_US_gross_premium_m":225,"annual_Sebree_cost_m":168.63,"annual_before_other_offsets_m":56.37,"quarter_before_other_offsets_m":14.0925}]; Calculated in quantify.py. Derived scenario, not observed future outcome. Full source relationships in analysis2487 and observations24090–96/24138–44; constant cell speed and equal-cell cast output are approximations; valuations use June share count and Sep10 price. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm

{"recent_cells_per_day":5.5,"remaining_cells":947,"constant_rate_days":172.1818181818182,"constant_rate_final_stable_date":"2027-02-21","restart_fraction":0.24960380348652933,"instant_missing_cast_proxy_tpy":1200633.914421553,"daily_missing_cast_proxy":3289.4079847165835,"H1_cast_decline_pct":-29.154929577464785,"H1_sales_decline_pct":-31.609613983976693,"H1_EBITDA_change_pct":10.84870848708488,"H1_OCF_change_pct":-56.873002034292355,"H1_cash_EBITDA_pct":32.93386595650244,"prior_cash_EBITDA_pct":84.64944649446494}; Calculated in quantify.py. Derived scenario, not observed future outcome. Full source relationships in analysis2487 and observations24090–96/24138–44; constant cell speed and equal-cell cast output are approximations; valuations use June share count and Sep10 price. https://media.ega.ae/egas-al-taweelah-smelter-restoration-reaches-25-completion-milestone/

{"CSTM":{"CSTM":1,"KALU":0.6548568887046872,"SPY":0.5642652476729697,"AA":0.5697548883275182,"CENX":0.44841818446695786},"KALU":{"CSTM":0.6548568887046872,"KALU":1,"SPY":0.49348848979664267,"AA":0.5981865775940295,"CENX":0.5139591613267673},"SPY":{"CSTM":0.5642652476729697,"KALU":0.49348848979664267,"SPY":1,"AA":0.5114980742637169,"CENX":0.4318788291021344},"AA":{"CSTM":0.5697548883275182,"KALU":0.5981865775940295,"SPY":0.5114980742637169,"AA":1,"CENX":0.6734326235370292},"CENX":{"CSTM":0.44841818446695786,"KALU":0.5139591613267673,"SPY":0.4318788291021344,"AA":0.6734326235370292,"CENX":1}}; Jan2025–Sep10 2026 complete daily logreturn pairwise correlations. Similar exposures do not make independent bets. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"period":"post","symbol":"KALU","n":114,"beta":1.8415900782031736,"daily_intercept_pct":0.00005044157653531171,"naive_se_pct":0.307606594652364,"corr_spy":0.4313017343123177,"return_pct":39.527919675885165}; Daily logreturn OLS versus SPY with intercept. Pre Jan2025–Mar27 2026; post Mar30–Sep10 2026. Naive standard error not HAC; selected dates do not identify causal outage effect. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"period":"post","symbol":"CSTM","n":114,"beta":1.96883718031124,"daily_intercept_pct":-0.2191140061847001,"naive_se_pct":0.23989618574138563,"corr_spy":0.5481217747741938,"return_pct":11.210954214805302}; Daily logreturn OLS versus SPY with intercept. Pre Jan2025–Mar27 2026; post Mar30–Sep10 2026. Naive standard error not HAC; selected dates do not identify causal outage effect. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"period":"post","symbol":"CENX","n":114,"beta":1.3605359267741461,"daily_intercept_pct":-0.31465124018953033,"naive_se_pct":0.3566180531592852,"corr_spy":0.2914156182779094,"return_pct":-10.654582074521642}; Daily logreturn OLS versus SPY with intercept. Pre Jan2025–Mar27 2026; post Mar30–Sep10 2026. Naive standard error not HAC; selected dates do not identify causal outage effect. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"period":"post","symbol":"AA","n":114,"beta":1.4443900120404538,"daily_intercept_pct":-0.3926844995431232,"naive_se_pct":0.31907611651154594,"corr_spy":0.33993973809022987,"return_pct":-17.01030927835055}; Daily logreturn OLS versus SPY with intercept. Pre Jan2025–Mar27 2026; post Mar30–Sep10 2026. Naive standard error not HAC; selected dates do not identify causal outage effect. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"period":"pre","symbol":"KALU","n":309,"beta":1.2686928813307001,"daily_intercept_pct":0.13476904928576422,"naive_se_pct":0.1310381674248496,"corr_spy":0.5373014724498033,"return_pct":70.6855081178593}; Daily logreturn OLS versus SPY with intercept. Pre Jan2025–Mar27 2026; post Mar30–Sep10 2026. Naive standard error not HAC; selected dates do not identify causal outage effect. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"period":"pre","symbol":"CSTM","n":309,"beta":1.5839975825116857,"daily_intercept_pct":0.2183268627519021,"naive_se_pct":0.14825484582847193,"corr_spy":0.5751269762775941,"return_pct":127.55598831548194}; Daily logreturn OLS versus SPY with intercept. Pre Jan2025–Mar27 2026; post Mar30–Sep10 2026. Naive standard error not HAC; selected dates do not identify causal outage effect. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"period":"pre","symbol":"CENX","n":309,"beta":1.7836278015601468,"daily_intercept_pct":0.27064107894636746,"naive_se_pct":0.21979844314978855,"corr_spy":0.4710199545360905,"return_pct":172.5027442371021}; Daily logreturn OLS versus SPY with intercept. Pre Jan2025–Mar27 2026; post Mar30–Sep10 2026. Naive standard error not HAC; selected dates do not identify causal outage effect. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"period":"pre","symbol":"AA","n":309,"beta":1.6885079840032762,"daily_intercept_pct":0.09471344108371367,"naive_se_pct":0.16017633528144282,"corr_spy":0.5699510209273085,"return_pct":56.83104284559421}; Daily logreturn OLS versus SPY with intercept. Pre Jan2025–Mar27 2026; post Mar30–Sep10 2026. Naive standard error not HAC; selected dates do not identify causal outage effect. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"CENX","n":1681,"date":"2026-09-10 04:00:00+00:00","close":44.36,"prior20":48.17,"sma50":45.6681,"adr20":2.333405,"rv20":42.92765569457421,"return20":-7.90948723271746,"signal":false,"volume":2293537}; Collected Sep11 04UTC. Jan2020–Sep10 2026 daily SIP alladjusted; complete pagination, unique positive-volume bars and OHLC bounds asserted. Signal close>prior20high AND SMA50. No current executable quote; daily adjustment is not cash-dividend execution. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"AA","n":1681,"date":"2026-09-10 04:00:00+00:00","close":48.3,"prior20":51.85,"sma50":48.508599999999994,"adr20":1.972495000000001,"rv20":45.87756829208709,"return20":-5.700898086684891,"signal":false,"volume":3863221}; Collected Sep11 04UTC. Jan2020–Sep10 2026 daily SIP alladjusted; complete pagination, unique positive-volume bars and OHLC bounds asserted. Signal close>prior20high AND SMA50. No current executable quote; daily adjustment is not cash-dividend execution. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"SPY","n":1681,"date":"2026-09-10 04:00:00+00:00","close":757.83,"prior20":777.88,"sma50":758.2458,"adr20":4.364559999999995,"rv20":8.532307950376643,"return20":-1.8977591942937688,"signal":false,"volume":42761756}; Collected Sep11 04UTC. Jan2020–Sep10 2026 daily SIP alladjusted; complete pagination, unique positive-volume bars and OHLC bounds asserted. Signal close>prior20high AND SMA50. No current executable quote; daily adjustment is not cash-dividend execution. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"KALU","n":1681,"date":"2026-09-10 04:00:00+00:00","close":158.42,"prior20":189.49,"sma50":166.195,"adr20":7.1415999999999995,"rv20":60.78465434459277,"return20":-16.396643622354755,"signal":false,"volume":223352}; Collected Sep11 04UTC. Jan2020–Sep10 2026 daily SIP alladjusted; complete pagination, unique positive-volume bars and OHLC bounds asserted. Signal close>prior20high AND SMA50. No current executable quote; daily adjustment is not cash-dividend execution. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"CSTM","n":1681,"date":"2026-09-10 04:00:00+00:00","close":25.99,"prior20":29.92,"sma50":28.402600000000003,"adr20":0.9782400000000001,"rv20":39.98702069621275,"return20":-11.898305084745765,"signal":false,"volume":1375618}; Collected Sep11 04UTC. Jan2020–Sep10 2026 daily SIP alladjusted; complete pagination, unique positive-volume bars and OHLC bounds asserted. Signal close>prior20high AND SMA50. No current executable quote; daily adjustment is not cash-dividend execution. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

Sep11~04UTC retrieved925SIPadjustmentall dailybars eachBB/SPY; dates2023-01 through2026-09-10, explicit03:30UTCdelayedcutoff. Fullcalculationsfixedin localstudy.py; metrics {"technical":{"n_bars":925,"RSI14":38.047221298437734,"ATR14":0.3976763658697475,"SMA20":8.0955,"SMA50":8.968,"RV20_pct":55.21286121050115,"RV60_pct":76.30777249095904,"low20":7.47,"high20":9.08,"return20_pct":-14.02508551881414},"subgroups":{"train":{"n":8,"median_abs_pct":9.987505004063907,"call_coverage":2,"put_coverage":1},"holdout":{"n":4,"median_abs_pct":10.916161414022325,"call_coverage":1,"put_coverage":1},"post_cylance":{"n":6,"median_abs_pct":10.793206570531671,"call_coverage":2,"put_coverage":1}},"mean":4.178883532453439,"rms":12.264750181808548,"median_ci":[5.353200326635955,12.807976116712666]} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Collected2026-09-11 04UTC fullypaginated18panels. Hour03UTC completes04UTC;dailyonlythroughSep10. {"symbol":"SOL","hour_t":"2026-09-11 03:00:00+00:00","hour_c":99.29365,"rolling480_hi":110.5357,"calendar20_hi":110.5357,"signal_rolling":false,"signal_calendar":false,"daily_c":98.6025,"daily_prior20_hi":110.5357,"atr14":4.975069381535714,"risk2ATR_pct":10.020921542386072,"distance_to_calendar_hi_pct":11.322023110239176}. No partial dailybar or04UTC hour used. Riskdistances descriptive not orders; target must include cost-aware3R and measured-horizon plausibility. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars