Notes

{"key":"neighbor10_15_test","model":"neighbor10","period":"test","slippage_bp":15,"first":"2021-01-04 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-10 04:00:00+00:00","return":-14.35135055833916,"drawdown":53.040254828000165,"CAGR":-2.6967938750516285,"win_rate":44.18604651162791,"sample":258,"mean_trade_pct":-0.027747137076297307,"avg_win_pct":2.2864677816784416,"avg_loss_pct":1.8598339477571322,"mean_CI95_pct":[-0.31033285590242954,0.26975274239519337],"halfKelly":0,"reasons":{"gap_target":1,"stop":107,"time":133,"target":4,"gap_stop":13},"partials":35,"same_day":23,"vbt_reconciled":true,"vbt_orders":551,"trade_months":68,"market":{"beta":0.49006772582105573,"alpha_ann_pct":-8.656648149308538,"alpha_t_HAC5":-1.3328926335873414,"corr":0.47171662385134105}} Daily proxy. All20cells reconciled. Training2016–2020/test2021–Sep10; inspected history, no globallyuntouchedclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json

Frozen controlled attribution experiment; completed2024-25train, REUSED2026Jan1-Sep11 00UTC holdout. 20high/10low,2ATR14,net3Rfixed10bptarget,25bpcreditedfees,20daytimeout,nexttimestampopen checks,optional+2RBE/entry2ATRtrail. Full24h matching masks dailygap and20daywindow; NOT exact priorstrategy replication. {"symbol":"BTC","source":"native_matched","signal":"daily","execution":"daily","part":"holdout","trail":true,"slip_bp":20,"return":6.3528700788678005,"drawdown":12.748217160474052,"win rate":40,"sample":5,"mean":1.4996760242032914,"avg_win":9.670485552752394,"avg_loss":3.9475303281627774,"zero_volume_entries":0,"zero_volume_exits":0}. Tradewealth reconciles vectorbt within1e-10; marks not executablequotes. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Frozen controlled attribution experiment; completed2024-25train, REUSED2026Jan1-Sep11 00UTC holdout. 20high/10low,2ATR14,net3Rfixed10bptarget,25bpcreditedfees,20daytimeout,nexttimestampopen checks,optional+2RBE/entry2ATRtrail. Full24h matching masks dailygap and20daywindow; NOT exact priorstrategy replication. {"symbol":"BTC","source":"native_matched","signal":"daily","execution":"daily","part":"holdout","trail":true,"slip_bp":10,"return":7.421736699555104,"drawdown":12.22313155668493,"win rate":40,"sample":5,"mean":1.7028789856190385,"avg_win":9.890046523951035,"avg_loss":3.7552327066022926,"zero_volume_entries":0,"zero_volume_exits":0}. Tradewealth reconciles vectorbt within1e-10; marks not executablequotes. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"key":"neighbor10_15_train","model":"neighbor10","period":"train","slippage_bp":15,"first":"2016-01-04 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2020-12-31 05:00:00+00:00","return":-27.823110091738133,"drawdown":51.516471177607514,"CAGR":-6.317787585841284,"win_rate":43.89140271493213,"sample":221,"mean_trade_pct":-0.12208391241790083,"avg_win_pct":1.847016078570865,"avg_loss_pct":1.6624282602075005,"mean_CI95_pct":[-0.3248899491009365,0.09155388045638681],"halfKelly":0,"reasons":{"time":113,"gap_stop":7,"stop":98,"gap_target":2,"target":1},"partials":18,"same_day":33,"vbt_reconciled":true,"vbt_orders":460,"trade_months":59,"market":{"beta":0.45967623262438806,"alpha_ann_pct":-12.160703786962777,"alpha_t_HAC5":-2.080372716554282,"corr":0.45896132281058627}} Daily proxy. All20cells reconciled. Training2016–2020/test2021–Sep10; inspected history, no globallyuntouchedclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json

Frozen controlled attribution experiment; completed2024-25train, REUSED2026Jan1-Sep11 00UTC holdout. 20high/10low,2ATR14,net3Rfixed10bptarget,25bpcreditedfees,20daytimeout,nexttimestampopen checks,optional+2RBE/entry2ATRtrail. Full24h matching masks dailygap and20daywindow; NOT exact priorstrategy replication. {"symbol":"BTC","source":"native_matched","signal":"daily","execution":"daily","part":"holdout","trail":false,"slip_bp":20,"return":6.3528700788678005,"drawdown":12.748217160474052,"win rate":40,"sample":5,"mean":1.4996760242032914,"avg_win":9.670485552752394,"avg_loss":3.9475303281627774,"zero_volume_entries":0,"zero_volume_exits":0}. Tradewealth reconciles vectorbt within1e-10; marks not executablequotes. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Frozen controlled attribution experiment; completed2024-25train, REUSED2026Jan1-Sep11 00UTC holdout. 20high/10low,2ATR14,net3Rfixed10bptarget,25bpcreditedfees,20daytimeout,nexttimestampopen checks,optional+2RBE/entry2ATRtrail. Full24h matching masks dailygap and20daywindow; NOT exact priorstrategy replication. {"symbol":"BTC","source":"native_matched","signal":"daily","execution":"daily","part":"holdout","trail":false,"slip_bp":10,"return":7.421736699555104,"drawdown":12.22313155668493,"win rate":40,"sample":5,"mean":1.7028789856190385,"avg_win":9.890046523951035,"avg_loss":3.7552327066022926,"zero_volume_entries":0,"zero_volume_exits":0}. Tradewealth reconciles vectorbt within1e-10; marks not executablequotes. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"key":"neighbor10_5_test","model":"neighbor10","period":"test","slippage_bp":5,"first":"2021-01-04 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-10 04:00:00+00:00","return":48.30495919030964,"drawdown":46.27596498361801,"CAGR":7.202260326614196,"win_rate":48.44961240310077,"sample":258,"mean_trade_pct":0.18582287834812702,"avg_win_pct":2.313173424406771,"avg_loss_pct":1.8135667326092457,"mean_CI95_pct":[-0.11811449501287959,0.5023963910054401],"halfKelly":0.040166222814828983,"reasons":{"gap_target":2,"stop":95,"time":142,"gap_stop":15,"target":4},"partials":41,"same_day":23,"vbt_reconciled":true,"vbt_orders":557,"trade_months":68,"market":{"beta":0.49010809224665536,"alpha_ann_pct":1.0473221624477715,"alpha_t_HAC5":0.1593223273238247,"corr":0.469273609004706}} Daily proxy. All20cells reconciled. Training2016–2020/test2021–Sep10; inspected history, no globallyuntouchedclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json

Frozen controlled attribution experiment; completed2024-25train, REUSED2026Jan1-Sep11 00UTC holdout. 20high/10low,2ATR14,net3Rfixed10bptarget,25bpcreditedfees,20daytimeout,nexttimestampopen checks,optional+2RBE/entry2ATRtrail. Full24h matching masks dailygap and20daywindow; NOT exact priorstrategy replication. {"symbol":"BTC","source":"native_matched","signal":"daily","execution":"daily","part":"train","trail":true,"slip_bp":20,"return":-6.794643701907832,"drawdown":35.805176801788896,"win rate":41.17647058823529,"sample":17,"mean":0.1145165028097074,"avg_win":10.356037436108338,"avg_loss":7.0545481504993335,"zero_volume_entries":0,"zero_volume_exits":0}. Tradewealth reconciles vectorbt within1e-10; marks not executablequotes. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Frozen controlled attribution experiment; completed2024-25train, REUSED2026Jan1-Sep11 00UTC holdout. 20high/10low,2ATR14,net3Rfixed10bptarget,25bpcreditedfees,20daytimeout,nexttimestampopen checks,optional+2RBE/entry2ATRtrail. Full24h matching masks dailygap and20daywindow; NOT exact priorstrategy replication. {"symbol":"BTC","source":"native_matched","signal":"daily","execution":"daily","part":"train","trail":true,"slip_bp":10,"return":-3.571165459343084,"drawdown":33.78386633247358,"win rate":41.17647058823529,"sample":17,"mean":0.314946366538795,"avg_win":10.576970886297655,"avg_loss":6.868470797292406,"zero_volume_entries":0,"zero_volume_exits":0}. Tradewealth reconciles vectorbt within1e-10; marks not executablequotes. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"key":"neighbor10_5_train","model":"neighbor10","period":"train","slippage_bp":5,"first":"2016-01-04 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2020-12-31 05:00:00+00:00","return":23.4844213638959,"drawdown":32.10100999192349,"CAGR":4.312652122160232,"win_rate":49.7737556561086,"sample":221,"mean_trade_pct":0.12159184490584596,"avg_win_pct":1.8961583958732682,"avg_loss_pct":1.636987620016824,"mean_CI95_pct":[-0.08560103192469003,0.33188233049926],"halfKelly":0.03206268135891874,"reasons":{"time":123,"gap_stop":8,"stop":87,"gap_target":2,"target":1},"partials":23,"same_day":24,"vbt_reconciled":true,"vbt_orders":465,"trade_months":59,"market":{"beta":0.4941443867156505,"alpha_ann_pct":-1.9427376337290452,"alpha_t_HAC5":-0.3306406572477684,"corr":0.4907980284351738}} Daily proxy. All20cells reconciled. Training2016–2020/test2021–Sep10; inspected history, no globallyuntouchedclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json

Frozen controlled attribution experiment; completed2024-25train, REUSED2026Jan1-Sep11 00UTC holdout. 20high/10low,2ATR14,net3Rfixed10bptarget,25bpcreditedfees,20daytimeout,nexttimestampopen checks,optional+2RBE/entry2ATRtrail. Full24h matching masks dailygap and20daywindow; NOT exact priorstrategy replication. {"symbol":"BTC","source":"native_matched","signal":"daily","execution":"daily","part":"train","trail":false,"slip_bp":20,"return":0.8466368397613167,"drawdown":31.545607956352217,"win rate":41.17647058823529,"sample":17,"mean":0.6486432853019342,"avg_win":11.653202479303745,"avg_loss":7.0545481504993335,"zero_volume_entries":0,"zero_volume_exits":0}. Tradewealth reconciles vectorbt within1e-10; marks not executablequotes. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Frozen controlled attribution experiment; completed2024-25train, REUSED2026Jan1-Sep11 00UTC holdout. 20high/10low,2ATR14,net3Rfixed10bptarget,25bpcreditedfees,20daytimeout,nexttimestampopen checks,optional+2RBE/entry2ATRtrail. Full24h matching masks dailygap and20daywindow; NOT exact priorstrategy replication. {"symbol":"BTC","source":"native_matched","signal":"daily","execution":"daily","part":"train","trail":false,"slip_bp":10,"return":4.334386391934331,"drawdown":29.53125475873297,"win rate":41.17647058823529,"sample":17,"mean":0.8501424740596831,"avg_win":11.876732861705525,"avg_loss":6.868470797292406,"zero_volume_entries":0,"zero_volume_exits":0}. Tradewealth reconciles vectorbt within1e-10; marks not executablequotes. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"key":"neighbor3_15_test","model":"neighbor3","period":"test","slippage_bp":15,"first":"2021-01-04 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-10 04:00:00+00:00","return":-34.50132234748037,"drawdown":44.78913223596377,"CAGR":-7.195198353857846,"win_rate":42.5287356321839,"sample":261,"mean_trade_pct":-0.12975630614881453,"avg_win_pct":2.2839040779989435,"avg_loss_pct":1.9158649904181555,"mean_CI95_pct":[-0.41598039756013533,0.1716584000385664],"halfKelly":0,"reasons":{"stop":118,"gap_stop":15,"time":120,"target":7,"gap_target":1},"partials":34,"same_day":34,"vbt_reconciled":true,"vbt_orders":556,"trade_months":68,"market":{"beta":0.4771055470893486,"alpha_ann_pct":-13.17171048137182,"alpha_t_HAC5":-2.046079173363774,"corr":0.4560924381158696}} Daily proxy. All20cells reconciled. Training2016–2020/test2021–Sep10; inspected history, no globallyuntouchedclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json

{"key":"neighbor3_15_train","model":"neighbor3","period":"train","slippage_bp":15,"first":"2016-01-04 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2020-12-31 05:00:00+00:00","return":-5.0356698911354965,"drawdown":38.241508926979485,"CAGR":-1.028868105718761,"win_rate":43.75,"sample":224,"mean_trade_pct":0.00351529877604099,"avg_win_pct":1.995409086128383,"avg_loss_pct":1.5457354247202248,"mean_CI95_pct":[-0.2820792593275213,0.31155701557779053],"halfKelly":0.0008808466395384129,"reasons":{"stop":94,"time":108,"target":5,"gap_stop":13,"gap_target":4},"partials":26,"same_day":32,"vbt_reconciled":true,"vbt_orders":474,"trade_months":59,"market":{"beta":0.40015581215907553,"alpha_ann_pct":-6.043143014156677,"alpha_t_HAC5":-0.9539885365220757,"corr":0.44642880381510675}} Daily proxy. All20cells reconciled. Training2016–2020/test2021–Sep10; inspected history, no globallyuntouchedclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json

{"key":"neighbor3_5_test","model":"neighbor3","period":"test","slippage_bp":5,"first":"2021-01-04 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-10 04:00:00+00:00","return":2.281326189643984,"drawdown":29.391231411424634,"CAGR":0.39885680643896304,"win_rate":45.97701149425287,"sample":261,"mean_trade_pct":0.04138504655656646,"avg_win_pct":2.303508964395379,"avg_loss_pct":1.8838267984126356,"mean_CI95_pct":[-0.2562198984201958,0.33990779442520025],"halfKelly":0.008983044389286599,"reasons":{"stop":114,"gap_stop":14,"time":125,"target":7,"gap_target":1},"partials":36,"same_day":32,"vbt_reconciled":true,"vbt_orders":558,"trade_months":68,"market":{"beta":0.4810762109771532,"alpha_ann_pct":-5.361733763793577,"alpha_t_HAC5":-0.836489315201643,"corr":0.4588651848265258}} Daily proxy. All20cells reconciled. Training2016–2020/test2021–Sep10; inspected history, no globallyuntouchedclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json

{"key":"neighbor3_5_train","model":"neighbor3","period":"train","slippage_bp":5,"first":"2016-01-04 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2020-12-31 05:00:00+00:00","return":53.19094900422727,"drawdown":23.00661059110285,"CAGR":8.912078617204822,"win_rate":47.767857142857146,"sample":224,"mean_trade_pct":0.2176281277769781,"avg_win_pct":2.053633872720923,"avg_loss_pct":1.46145404922304,"mean_CI95_pct":[-0.062302955218307435,0.5202556609315512],"halfKelly":0.05298610688784461,"reasons":{"gap_stop":14,"time":117,"stop":84,"target":5,"gap_target":4},"partials":30,"same_day":28,"vbt_reconciled":true,"vbt_orders":478,"trade_months":59,"market":{"beta":0.4016246252040945,"alpha_ann_pct":3.4911761643260117,"alpha_t_HAC5":0.5525352440765674,"corr":0.45041213245668027}} Daily proxy. All20cells reconciled. Training2016–2020/test2021–Sep10; inspected history, no globallyuntouchedclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json

PrimaryCisionissuerindexquotes"Sep 06, 2023, 17:30 ET" preliminaryFYQ2; directfulloriginalPRN301919897cachemiss. Dec19releasequotesCylancedefinitiveagreementandclassifiesheldforsale;issuerproductpageFeb3,2025assetsnowArcticWolf. ExcludingSep2023finalgivesN11,medianabs10.859729%,C3/11/P2/11. AlsoexcludeDec2024dealdependenteventN10median9.987505%,C2/10/P2/10. Postclose6earningsC2/P1. Thesearesensitivitylabels,notretunedprimarysample. https://www.newswire.ca/news/blackberry-limited/?page=3&pagesize=25 ; https://www.accesswire.com/957744/blackberry-reports-third-quarter-fiscal-year-2025-results ; https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/campaigns/intelligent-security

Q1endingMay31FY27,readSep11. USDm: SecureCommunicationsgrowth14.1 drivenSecuSUITE+15.3,UEM-.8;QNXgrowth14.8 includesdevelopmentlicenses+7.5,royalties+4.2,Radar+1.5,services+1.2. RPO133.9ofwhich121.5<12months; excludesusage/salesroyaltiesbydefinition. Deferredrevenue152.6->133.9 (-18.7),newincreases121.9versusfulfillment140.6. Growthisnotallrecurringorroyaltycash; QNXlicensesplusvolumeroyalties mayincludeminimumcommitments. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1070235/000107023526000076/bbry-20260531.htm

{"key":"time5_15_test","model":"time5","period":"test","slippage_bp":15,"first":"2021-01-04 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-10 04:00:00+00:00","return":-25.75520677946721,"drawdown":48.522722725307744,"CAGR":-5.11963356527001,"win_rate":52.54901960784314,"sample":255,"mean_trade_pct":-0.07160477672451342,"avg_win_pct":2.059926961130461,"avg_loss_pct":2.4321440566630796,"mean_CI95_pct":[-0.42498062146571663,0.2751204592455909],"halfKelly":0,"reasons":{"time":255},"partials":0,"same_day":0,"vbt_reconciled":true,"vbt_orders":510,"trade_months":68,"market":{"beta":0.7739429677605836,"alpha_ann_pct":-14.70754441601599,"alpha_t_HAC5":-2.184314711022825,"corr":0.6059863568739847}} Daily proxy. All20cells reconciled. Training2016–2020/test2021–Sep10; inspected history, no globallyuntouchedclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json

IssuerJune25 forMay31quarter,retrievedSep11. USDm: revenue152.9,QNX72.3,secure73.6,ARR220,DBNRR92%,OCF4.6,capex2.9,intangibleinvestment1.6,cash/investments422.9(includesrestricted14.2),notes196.8,shares586.061m,repurchase10m. Q2guide revenue137–148,OCF0–10;FYrevenue594–621,adjEBITDA119–139,OCF~100. GAAPNI8.5vsadjusted25.4. CalculatedFCFafterbothinvestments.1;remainingOCF95.4/3quarters=31.8each,notforecast. Sep10S7.54 impliescap4418.89994m; EVexcludingrestrictedcash4206.99994m,6.9251xguidesalesmid,32.6124xadjustedEBITDAmid,44.189xOCFguide. ValuationusesMay31shares/cashnotcurrentreconciledbalance. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1070235/000107023526000071/q1fy27ex-991.htm

{"key":"time5_15_train","model":"time5","period":"train","slippage_bp":15,"first":"2016-01-04 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2020-12-31 05:00:00+00:00","return":-35.38862874819518,"drawdown":55.13012752706087,"CAGR":-8.371271925728296,"win_rate":49.54545454545455,"sample":220,"mean_trade_pct":-0.161484238059864,"avg_win_pct":1.7284006230670053,"avg_loss_pct":2.01731711970697,"mean_CI95_pct":[-0.4623022590666639,0.14163729597749822],"halfKelly":0,"reasons":{"time":220},"partials":0,"same_day":0,"vbt_reconciled":true,"vbt_orders":440,"trade_months":59,"market":{"beta":0.7435717976603801,"alpha_ann_pct":-18.2400127612914,"alpha_t_HAC5":-2.876775020336733,"corr":0.6347706419128603}} Daily proxy. All20cells reconciled. Training2016–2020/test2021–Sep10; inspected history, no globallyuntouchedclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json

{"key":"time5_5_test","model":"time5","period":"test","slippage_bp":5,"first":"2021-01-04 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-10 04:00:00+00:00","return":23.63926873150728,"drawdown":29.757337397159766,"CAGR":3.815667103450271,"win_rate":56.86274509803921,"sample":255,"mean_trade_pct":0.12845222076228352,"avg_win_pct":2.099091141185955,"avg_loss_pct":2.469208174341647,"mean_CI95_pct":[-0.2173690604475051,0.48858693110590634],"halfKelly":0.030597104204277137,"reasons":{"time":255},"partials":0,"same_day":0,"vbt_reconciled":true,"vbt_orders":510,"trade_months":68,"market":{"beta":0.7743369469189808,"alpha_ann_pct":-5.720513836068003,"alpha_t_HAC5":-0.8512081906657025,"corr":0.6070915449237996}} Daily proxy. All20cells reconciled. Training2016–2020/test2021–Sep10; inspected history, no globallyuntouchedclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json

{"key":"time5_5_train","model":"time5","period":"train","slippage_bp":5,"first":"2016-01-04 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2020-12-31 05:00:00+00:00","return":0.32259036108561734,"drawdown":36.756969045779655,"CAGR":0.06448617734937656,"win_rate":54.54545454545454,"sample":220,"mean_trade_pct":0.038392820430310864,"avg_win_pct":1.7666844670028734,"avg_loss_pct":2.035557155456764,"mean_CI95_pct":[-0.26470964170669264,0.3262461573418879],"halfKelly":0.01086578309465841,"reasons":{"time":220},"partials":0,"same_day":0,"vbt_reconciled":true,"vbt_orders":440,"trade_months":59,"market":{"beta":0.7427941589350198,"alpha_ann_pct":-9.429861337697398,"alpha_t_HAC5":-1.4958405207662782,"corr":0.6351005466617948}} Daily proxy. All20cells reconciled. Training2016–2020/test2021–Sep10; inspected history, no globallyuntouchedclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json

{"key":"primary5_15_test","model":"primary5","period":"test","slippage_bp":15,"first":"2021-01-04 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-10 04:00:00+00:00","return":-14.051637727132416,"drawdown":39.20026527589924,"CAGR":-2.636792748548722,"win_rate":44.31372549019608,"sample":255,"mean_trade_pct":-0.027524328075738277,"avg_win_pct":2.3031048344983,"avg_loss_pct":1.8821799292790222,"mean_CI95_pct":[-0.31652818404002264,0.2633172689313565],"halfKelly":0,"reasons":{"gap_target":1,"stop":106,"time":123,"gap_stop":17,"target":8},"partials":35,"same_day":30,"vbt_reconciled":true,"vbt_orders":545,"trade_months":68,"market":{"beta":0.45377235004133804,"alpha_ann_pct":-8.007891626172409,"alpha_t_HAC5":-1.2723287305282027,"corr":0.43142037593091437}} Daily proxy. All20cells reconciled. Training2016–2020/test2021–Sep10; inspected history, no globallyuntouchedclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json