Notes

Historical2024-2026asretrievedSep11 04UTC. Native/aggregate comparison onfull24hUTCdays;largest3absoluterelativedifferences,notclaimofcause. [{"s":"SOL","field":"l","day":"2025-12-02 00:00:00+00:00","native":138.327,"aggregate":124.3,"difference_pct":11.284794851166534,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"SOL","field":"l","day":"2025-11-23 00:00:00+00:00","native":130.545,"aggregate":127.4,"difference_pct":2.4686028257456583,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"SOL","field":"l","day":"2025-12-08 00:00:00+00:00","native":132.47,"aggregate":131.545,"difference_pct":0.7031814208065867,"day_hour_n":24}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Historical2024-2026asretrievedSep11 04UTC. Native/aggregate comparison onfull24hUTCdays;largest3absoluterelativedifferences,notclaimofcause. [{"s":"SOL","field":"h","day":"2025-11-23 00:00:00+00:00","native":133.445,"aggregate":142.4051776645,"difference_pct":-6.29203081759413,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"SOL","field":"h","day":"2025-12-08 00:00:00+00:00","native":136.565,"aggregate":139.3,"difference_pct":-1.9633883704235577,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"SOL","field":"h","day":"2025-12-14 00:00:00+00:00","native":133.1842088665,"aggregate":133.8,"difference_pct":-0.46023253624813965,"day_hour_n":24}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Historical2024-2026asretrievedSep11 04UTC. Native/aggregate comparison onfull24hUTCdays;largest3absoluterelativedifferences,notclaimofcause. [{"s":"SOL","field":"o","day":"2025-12-02 00:00:00+00:00","native":139.716,"aggregate":126.67,"difference_pct":10.299202652561789,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"SOL","field":"o","day":"2025-11-23 00:00:00+00:00","native":131.95,"aggregate":127.5445,"difference_pct":3.454088573007841,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"SOL","field":"o","day":"2025-12-03 00:00:00+00:00","native":142.18,"aggregate":138.72,"difference_pct":2.4942329873125724,"day_hour_n":24}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

ObservedSep11 04UTC; full24hourdays only, years separated, noimputation. [{"symbol":"SOL","year":2024,"matched_days":127,"ohlc_any_difference":126,"open_difference":0,"close_difference":126},{"symbol":"SOL","year":2025,"matched_days":363,"ohlc_any_difference":203,"open_difference":11,"close_difference":193},{"symbol":"SOL","year":2026,"matched_days":252,"ohlc_any_difference":0,"open_difference":0,"close_difference":0}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Historical2024-2026asretrievedSep11 04UTC. Native/aggregate comparison onfull24hUTCdays;largest3absoluterelativedifferences,notclaimofcause. [{"s":"ETH","field":"c","day":"2025-03-31 00:00:00+00:00","native":1823.594,"aggregate":1821.9125,"difference_pct":0.09229312604202011,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"ETH","field":"c","day":"2025-06-01 00:00:00+00:00","native":2537.955,"aggregate":2540.245,"difference_pct":-0.09014878486129918,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"ETH","field":"c","day":"2025-02-24 00:00:00+00:00","native":2515.6035,"aggregate":2513.4,"difference_pct":0.08767008832657464,"day_hour_n":24}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Historical2024-2026asretrievedSep11 04UTC. Native/aggregate comparison onfull24hUTCdays;largest3absoluterelativedifferences,notclaimofcause. [{"s":"ETH","field":"l","day":"2025-12-02 00:00:00+00:00","native":2975.05,"aggregate":2783.3485,"difference_pct":6.887441511546255,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"ETH","field":"l","day":"2025-12-03 00:00:00+00:00","native":3033.2,"aggregate":2986.247,"difference_pct":1.572307983900867,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"ETH","field":"l","day":"2025-12-08 00:00:00+00:00","native":3078.7395,"aggregate":3042.72,"difference_pct":1.183792790661009,"day_hour_n":24}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Historical2024-2026asretrievedSep11 04UTC. Native/aggregate comparison onfull24hUTCdays;largest3absoluterelativedifferences,notclaimofcause. [{"s":"ETH","field":"h","day":"2025-12-08 00:00:00+00:00","native":3152.7225,"aggregate":3180.15,"difference_pct":-0.8624593179567097,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"ETH","field":"h","day":"2025-12-14 00:00:00+00:00","native":3104.4,"aggregate":3130.1675,"difference_pct":-0.8231987585328837,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"ETH","field":"h","day":"2025-11-23 00:00:00+00:00","native":2844.349,"aggregate":2855.7525,"difference_pct":-0.39931681754633574,"day_hour_n":24}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Historical2024-2026asretrievedSep11 04UTC. Native/aggregate comparison onfull24hUTCdays;largest3absoluterelativedifferences,notclaimofcause. [{"s":"ETH","field":"o","day":"2025-12-02 00:00:00+00:00","native":3020.1375,"aggregate":2798.84,"difference_pct":7.906757799659836,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"ETH","field":"o","day":"2025-11-23 00:00:00+00:00","native":2824.571,"aggregate":2767.86,"difference_pct":2.048911433381728,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"ETH","field":"o","day":"2025-12-03 00:00:00+00:00","native":3053.4795,"aggregate":2995.8575,"difference_pct":1.9233892132719976,"day_hour_n":24}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

ObservedSep11 04UTC; full24hourdays only, years separated, noimputation. [{"symbol":"ETH","year":2024,"matched_days":365,"ohlc_any_difference":365,"open_difference":0,"close_difference":365},{"symbol":"ETH","year":2025,"matched_days":364,"ohlc_any_difference":203,"open_difference":10,"close_difference":194},{"symbol":"ETH","year":2026,"matched_days":252,"ohlc_any_difference":0,"open_difference":0,"close_difference":0}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Historical2024-2026asretrievedSep11 04UTC. Native/aggregate comparison onfull24hUTCdays;largest3absoluterelativedifferences,notclaimofcause. [{"s":"BTC","field":"c","day":"2025-01-15 00:00:00+00:00","native":100416.199,"aggregate":100511.3465,"difference_pct":-0.09466344180356634,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"BTC","field":"c","day":"2024-04-04 00:00:00+00:00","native":68592.7,"aggregate":68529.9035,"difference_pct":0.09163372016129934,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"BTC","field":"c","day":"2024-11-19 00:00:00+00:00","native":92345.65,"aggregate":92424.43,"difference_pct":-0.08523720405957391,"day_hour_n":24}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Historical2024-2026asretrievedSep11 04UTC. Native/aggregate comparison onfull24hUTCdays;largest3absoluterelativedifferences,notclaimofcause. [{"s":"BTC","field":"l","day":"2025-12-02 00:00:00+00:00","native":89602.3682237864,"aggregate":86167.6,"difference_pct":3.986148185381033,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"BTC","field":"l","day":"2025-11-23 00:00:00+00:00","native":86694.1,"aggregate":84621.731,"difference_pct":2.4489796834810784,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"BTC","field":"l","day":"2025-12-08 00:00:00+00:00","native":89692.422,"aggregate":89544.4145320195,"difference_pct":0.16528944742564278,"day_hour_n":24}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Historical2024-2026asretrievedSep11 04UTC. Native/aggregate comparison onfull24hUTCdays;largest3absoluterelativedifferences,notclaimofcause. [{"s":"BTC","field":"h","day":"2025-11-23 00:00:00+00:00","native":88127.942,"aggregate":90165.3625169692,"difference_pct":-2.2596487831851753,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"BTC","field":"h","day":"2025-12-08 00:00:00+00:00","native":91558.1005726285,"aggregate":92306.181,"difference_pct":-0.8104337318120658,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"BTC","field":"h","day":"2025-12-14 00:00:00+00:00","native":90240.3049507385,"aggregate":90535.8714532015,"difference_pct":-0.3264634202099437,"day_hour_n":24}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Historical2024-2026asretrievedSep11 04UTC. Native/aggregate comparison onfull24hUTCdays;largest3absoluterelativedifferences,notclaimofcause. [{"s":"BTC","field":"o","day":"2025-12-02 00:00:00+00:00","native":91625.132,"aggregate":86270.82,"difference_pct":6.206399800071449,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"BTC","field":"o","day":"2025-11-23 00:00:00+00:00","native":87421.966,"aggregate":84698.415,"difference_pct":3.2155867379572545,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"BTC","field":"o","day":"2025-12-14 00:00:00+00:00","native":88793.16,"aggregate":90323.263,"difference_pct":-1.6940298093526596,"day_hour_n":24}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

ObservedSep11 04UTC; full24hourdays only, years separated, noimputation. [{"symbol":"BTC","year":2024,"matched_days":365,"ohlc_any_difference":361,"open_difference":0,"close_difference":361},{"symbol":"BTC","year":2025,"matched_days":364,"ohlc_any_difference":203,"open_difference":12,"close_difference":193},{"symbol":"BTC","year":2026,"matched_days":252,"ohlc_any_difference":5,"open_difference":0,"close_difference":5}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Sep11 query_trades fundconvex returned[]: liveclosedN0, no observedwinrate/slippage. Fixed12-event counterfactual intrinsic-only call3wins9losses,mean net-.251973R,avgwin+1.384390R,avgloss-.797427R; put2wins10losses,mean-.739913R,avgwin+.330379R,avgloss-.953971R. Fullpremium defines1R. NotactualoptionPnL; residualtimecouldimprovepayoffs, executioncostsworsen. Chronologicalholdout was isolated before computations but candidate selected today, so not equivalent to a genuinely prospective trading series. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars ; Convex query_trades

Sep11~04:08 direct403; webopen recovered acquisitionindexlatestAug18extensiontoSep9, actualSep9responsesnotvisible inindex, notproofnonfiling/approval. FTKhomepage200 stilllinksLakeStreetpresentation; paidcollections/restartnotrevalidated. AVAVnode21391200; Sep11RTHopenstillfuture,frozen229unchanged. Job196 lastactualEND recoverednote2151 Sep11 02:30:28,threepanels; prior01:45=>45mincadence. Job203 last03:45note2167 truncatedduringTXNM,noEND;03:15=>30min receipts notfullcoverage. Compactreplacement tested04:11:37 START/END all3panels,TXNM403,FTK200correctLakeStreetlink,AVAV200; invalidfirsttestAVAV404andgenericcompliance matches correctedbefore scheduling. Noorders. https://www.txnmenergy.com/investors/rates-and-filings/pnm-nmprc-filings.aspx

{"symbol":"KALU","label":"position_cap_stress","paths":50000,"roundtrips":20,"equity_fraction":0.25,"initial_notional":212.7475,"terminal_return_pct_quantiles":[-17.225869134387388,-0.981166553591134,21.700392079364647],"prob_loss_pct":53.396,"drawdown95_pct":19.88527913234894,"training_target_frequency_pct":6.451612903225806,"training_stop_frequency_pct":58.06451612903226}; NumPy50000iid paths of20roundtrips from2020–24fixedrule training, seed91104. Fixedfraction ofaccount equity per trade. Assumes stationary independent trade returns; underestimates unseen gaps/regime persistence. Actualallocation0; zero-sizeddistribution is mechanically zero, not risk-free alpha. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"KALU","label":"point_quarter_probe","paths":50000,"roundtrips":20,"equity_fraction":0.00044063114064938486,"initial_notional":0.37497269438122,"terminal_return_pct_quantiles":[-0.032538057725157166,-0.0005875514963782358,0.03653816677399166],"prob_loss_pct":51.11,"drawdown95_pct":0.03849808764110452,"training_target_frequency_pct":6.451612903225806,"training_stop_frequency_pct":58.06451612903226}; NumPy50000iid paths of20roundtrips from2020–24fixedrule training, seed91104. Fixedfraction ofaccount equity per trade. Assumes stationary independent trade returns; underestimates unseen gaps/regime persistence. Actualallocation0; zero-sizeddistribution is mechanically zero, not risk-free alpha. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"CSTM","label":"position_cap_stress","paths":50000,"roundtrips":20,"equity_fraction":0.25,"initial_notional":212.7475,"terminal_return_pct_quantiles":[-20.732574897046543,-6.561491360041982,11.988630337550346],"prob_loss_pct":73.342,"drawdown95_pct":22.50457021412355,"training_target_frequency_pct":6.666666666666667,"training_stop_frequency_pct":50}; NumPy50000iid paths of20roundtrips from2020–24fixedrule training, seed91104. Fixedfraction ofaccount equity per trade. Assumes stationary independent trade returns; underestimates unseen gaps/regime persistence. Actualallocation0; zero-sizeddistribution is mechanically zero, not risk-free alpha. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"CSTM","label":"point_quarter_probe","paths":50000,"roundtrips":20,"equity_fraction":0,"initial_notional":0,"terminal_return_pct_quantiles":[0,0,0],"prob_loss_pct":0,"drawdown95_pct":0,"training_target_frequency_pct":6.666666666666667,"training_stop_frequency_pct":50}; NumPy50000iid paths of20roundtrips from2020–24fixedrule training, seed91104. Fixedfraction ofaccount equity per trade. Assumes stationary independent trade returns; underestimates unseen gaps/regime persistence. Actualallocation0; zero-sizeddistribution is mechanically zero, not risk-free alpha. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"paths":50000,"seed":91104,"rate_assumption_triangular":[3,5.5,8],"days_after_Aug26_quantiles":[138.35439309444095,178.92317789956104,256.5279408652874],"missing_cast_proxy_t_through_Mar31_quantiles":[237423.11143523737,304144.5674246906,421742.72079126025],"model_finish_by_Mar31_pct":81.662}; Assumed triangular fixed path speeds3/5.5/8cells perday,7daystabilization,315already-stablecells atAug26, equaloutput/1.6Mt annualcastproxy. This is model sensitivity NOT a calibrated81.662%real-world probability. Scrap/shipments/heterogeneouscells ignored; no trading probability inferred. https://media.ega.ae/egas-al-taweelah-smelter-restoration-reaches-25-completion-milestone/

{"symbol":"KALU","lookback":40,"period":"holdout","slippage":0.002,"return_pct":5.499603791798744,"drawdown_pct":23.73443674070127,"n":16,"win_pct":37.5,"mean_pct":0.8491566740459443,"avg_win_pct":13.23224997714553,"avg_loss_pct":6.580699307813807,"half_kelly":0.032086632111416796,"targets":3,"stops":9,"time_exits":4,"ambiguous":0}; Frozen2178. vectorbt longonly; two accounting points per day permit entry/exit same day, original open/close marks except exit price. Fees10bp/side plus listed slippage. Daily touch/gap model not venue15min; zero ambiguous bars. No parameter selected from holdout. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"KALU","lookback":40,"period":"holdout","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":8.930195851262615,"drawdown_pct":23.198818871819448,"n":16,"win_pct":37.5,"mean_pct":1.051057291813047,"avg_win_pct":13.458941622128103,"avg_loss_pct":6.3936733063759865,"half_kelly":0.03904680328225005,"targets":3,"stops":9,"time_exits":4,"ambiguous":0}; Frozen2178. vectorbt longonly; two accounting points per day permit entry/exit same day, original open/close marks except exit price. Fees10bp/side plus listed slippage. Daily touch/gap model not venue15min; zero ambiguous bars. No parameter selected from holdout. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"KALU","lookback":40,"period":"train","slippage":0.002,"return_pct":-20.170352764852886,"drawdown_pct":60.66153052675468,"n":23,"win_pct":39.130434782608695,"mean_pct":-0.5154549774926237,"avg_win_pct":10.046954676920679,"avg_loss_pct":7.305575469615462,"half_kelly":0,"targets":2,"stops":13,"time_exits":8,"ambiguous":0}; Frozen2178. vectorbt longonly; two accounting points per day permit entry/exit same day, original open/close marks except exit price. Fees10bp/side plus listed slippage. Daily touch/gap model not venue15min; zero ambiguous bars. No parameter selected from holdout. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"KALU","lookback":40,"period":"train","slippage":0.001,"return_pct":-16.41241017260007,"drawdown_pct":59.544485118869986,"n":23,"win_pct":39.130434782608695,"mean_pct":-0.3162863204532431,"avg_win_pct":10.267269341568516,"avg_loss_pct":7.120000674610089,"half_kelly":0,"targets":2,"stops":13,"time_exits":8,"ambiguous":0}; Frozen2178. vectorbt longonly; two accounting points per day permit entry/exit same day, original open/close marks except exit price. Fees10bp/side plus listed slippage. Daily touch/gap model not venue15min; zero ambiguous bars. No parameter selected from holdout. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all