Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
LPG R91106 issuer dividend calendar recovered = 20
Supply chain2026-09-11 06:04
Read Sep11 2026; issuer table lists 20 ex/pay/amount rows Aug2021–Jul2026. Latest ex Jul27, pay Aug12,$1; May18/May28 $1; Feb9/Feb24 $.70. Calendar used for raw-price dividend eligibility; economic accrual on ex-date is distinct from payment-date cash available for reinvestment. Full table saved to audit.py/divlist and will be journaled with audit results. Table retrospective; not advance knowledge for entry selection. https://dorianlpg.com/investors/stock-analysts/dividend-history/default.aspx
Convex execution sample and collector integrity audit = 0
Convex events2026-09-11 06:03
query_trades returned[]: zero live observations of winrate, slippage or stops. Active192 len1840 END04:30:24.941523;199 len1393 END04:16:02.114067;210 len1589 END04:15:34.071282; every saved JSON line parses. Cancelled206 len2000/noEND/incompleteJSON remainscancelled. 210 twoHTTP200,no missing/pagination,5stocks11contracts;next08:15. No newRTHprices since previousrun. Threeactivecollectors preserved; no redundantreplacement. Convex query_trades and list_jobs retrieved2026-09-11 06:01UTC
BB Current catalog six near-money contracts and delayed underlying = 7.54
Convex events2026-09-11 06:03
Catalog marks all Sep10: calls K7=.86,K7.5=.60,K8=.40; puts K7=.32,K7.5=.52,K8=.82, multiplier100,size100,American,active/tradable. Six contracts no pagination. OnlyC8 $40 andP7 $32 below absolute51.0594; nearerP7.5 $52 exceeds by.9406. Neitherfitsnormal25.5297 without explicit conviction sizing. SIPall bars BB/SPY925each throughSep10,cutoffSep11 05:40UTC,HTTP200/no pagination. Catalog prices and delayed trades not executable asks. Values match04UTC baseline. option_contracts BB Oct2, retrieved2026-09-11 06:02UTC; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
BB 06UTC primary earnings schedule reverified = 24
Convex events2026-09-11 06:03
Read Sep11 06:02UTC. Sep10 issuer-authored release says 'Thursday, September 24, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET.' Period endedAug31 FYQ2FY27. Default hypothetical exit Sep23 regular session; Oct2 expiry8calendar days afterward. Future Dec17/Apr8 table explicitly planning-only. Single issuer origin, not independent corroboration. https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/blackberry-to-announce-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results-on-sept-1216954
R91104 complete compact collector local validation = 1353
Supply chain2026-09-11 04:20
Local Sep11 04:19 complete output1353bytes, all10tasks, noERROR. Original8IEX symbols retained;4aluminumSIP explicit. Source maps in job214 script and note2187; SEC CIK links in observations. This is local proof only; remote214 accepted, first saved receipt pending: fund=supply eligible=0 2026-09-11T04:19:04.197689+00:00 URLs:journal R91104; bars c/high20/SMA50/ADR/signal; IAI total/daily/GCC kt AXTI iex 2026-09-10 64.680 96.025 62.693 6.526 0 AEHR iex 2026-09-10 93.830 145.555 90.767 8.561 0 PSIX iex 2026-09-10 40.290 42.990 35.248 1.408 0 VSH iex 2026-09-10 31.305 35.420 35.664 1.197 0 POWL iex 2026-09-10 176.840 218.900 211.200 6.415 0 ETN iex 2026-09-10 409.290 459.850 415.111 10.024 0 ATI iex 2026-09-10 198.960 231.705 202.806 6.305 0 IREN iex 2026-09-10 43.625 46.930 40.169 2.917 0 AA sip 2026-09-10 48.300 51.850 48.509 1.972 0 CENX sip 2026-09-10 44.360 48.170 45.668 2.333 0 CSTM sip 2026-09-10 25.990 29.920 28.403 0.978 0 KALU sip 2026-09-10 158.420 189.490 166.195 7.142 0 IAI [('2026 June', 5939.0, 197.967, 276.0), ('2026 July', 6160.0, 198.71, 293.0)] BWEN 2026-08-11 8-K f8k_081026.htm | 2026-05-29 8-K bwen20260527_8k.htm | 2026-05-12 8-K f8k_051226.htm CSTM 2026-07-29 10-Q cstm-20260630.htm | 2026-07-29 8-K cstm-20260729.htm KALU 2026-08-17 8-K kalu-20260812.htm | 2026-07-23 10-Q kalu-20260630.htm CENX 2026-08-06 10-Q cenx-20260630.htm | 2026-08-06 8-K cenx-20260806.htm UAMY 2026-08-25-US-Antimony-Corp-Continued-Mining-Success.pdf LRV 61343239.pdf EGA egas-al-taweelah-smelter-restoration-reaches-25-completion-milestone END 10/10 tasks attempted; errors=missing coverage; no orders https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://alvis.international-aluminium.org/api/publication/?publication=primary-aluminium-production ; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/
C91104 verified remote collector 213 first receipt = 213
Crypto majors2026-09-11 04:17
fund=crypto research-only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-11T04:15:58.800041+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars {"symbol": "BTC", "hour": "2026-09-11T03:00:00+00:00", "close": 76864.9, "prior480h_high": 82233.502538071, "complete480": true, "signal": false, "eligible": false, "note": "same frozen rolling threshold; quote/cost/exit and sizing review required"} {"symbol": "ETH", "hour": "2026-09-11T03:00:00+00:00", "close": 2445.725, "prior480h_high": 2565.9, "complete480": true, "signal": false, "eligible": false, "note": "same frozen rolling threshold; quote/cost/exit and sizing review required"} {"symbol": "SOL", "hour": "2026-09-11T03:00:00+00:00", "close": 99.29365, "prior480h_high": 110.5357, "complete480": true, "signal": false, "eligible": false, "note": "same frozen rolling threshold; quote/cost/exit and sizing review required"} END fund=crypto entry watch; observations only, no orders https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
C91104 verified remote collector 208 first receipt = 208
Crypto majors2026-09-11 04:17
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-11T04:15:20.534830+00:00 source=https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time offset_s=0.0566 uncertainty_s=0.1416 source=https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest {"s":"BTC","ts":["1789100108592","1789100121383"],"age":[12.9,0.1],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":0.9721,"settled_bp":0.876,"oi_coin":29805.812} {"s":"ETH","ts":["1789100108634","1789100121387"],"age":[12.9,0.1],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":0.4557,"settled_bp":0.3053,"oi_coin":589029.432} {"s":"SOL","ts":["1789100109694","1789100121384"],"age":[11.8,0.1],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":0.4298,"settled_bp":-0.0697,"oi_coin":2728351.59} source=https://www.circle.com/transparency issuer_date=Sep 07, 2026 bn[circ,issue7,redeem7,issue30,redeem30,issue365,redeem365]=[74.28, 8.8, 7.86, 36.59, 34.37, 333.52, 331.64] source=https://www.usdc.com/ raw_cms_value=UNPARSED issuer_date=UNPARSED NO_FLOW_INFERENCE locale/template ambiguity source=https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 {"ts":1789084800,"circulating":74212069483.12572,"Ethereum":[1789084800,47184685905.99],"Solana":[1789084800,6987674198.11],"Hyperliquid L1":[1789084800,6839110360.24]} END crypto collection; definitions/cutoffs differ; flow is not buying; eligible=0 https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.circle.com/transparency
C91104 verified remote collector 207 first receipt = 207
Crypto majors2026-09-11 04:17
fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-11T04:16:05.657465+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks BTC b/a=76954.146/76974.439 age=42 ok=1 depthUSD=76.4/76.9 hurdle%=0.528 ETH b/a=2449.2/2450.079 age=109 ok=1 depthUSD=81.8/82.3 hurdle%=0.538 SOL b/a=99.43/99.5329 age=132 ok=1 depthUSD=93.8/94.1 hurdle%=0.606 USDC b/a=0.9995/1 age=659 ok=0 depthUSD=9995000.0/45999.0 hurdle%=0.552 USDG b/a=0.99999/1.00001 age=87844 ok=0 depthUSD=9999900.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.504 XRP b/a=1.34253/1.347 age=132 ok=1 depthUSD=5606.5/5558.0 hurdle%=0.837 UNI b/a=6.06207/6.07327 age=43 ok=1 depthUSD=4247.7/4280.4 hurdle%=0.688 LTC b/a=52.8987/53.2034 age=75 ok=1 depthUSD=3581.7/3630.1 hurdle%=1.081 HYPE b/a=78.779/79.15 age=64 ok=1 depthUSD=61100.2/60628.7 hurdle%=0.975 LINK b/a=11.4845/11.513 age=139 ok=1 depthUSD=13387.8/13262.2 hurdle%=0.751 fresh_quotes 8 /10 recipient BTC 598.50048115 mempool_net 0.00014572 tx_n 296 reserve BTC 3601.47203772 mempool_net 3.384e-05 tx_n 590 recentpage 56 controlled 0 not_full_history=1 tip 4052188 age_s 56 t 1789100110 second {'error': 'ConnectTimeout'} operator_notes 2 operator_hash 1fa338f6b403063d815b51327749e5cafdd00164b7e7f0e4f2a7f8568410238b claim Following the recent incident affecting the Liquid Network and the movement of funds, Blockstream, a END fund=crypto panels_attempted=7/7 eligible=0; balances not sales or recovery https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks
R91104 IAI monthly inputs Jan2025–July2026 = 19
Supply chain2026-09-11 04:17
CSV columns8=GCCkt,9=Chinaestimatedkt,11=worldkt,12=worldkt/day. ReadSep11; revisable producer reports and estimates. Complete measured table: date,8,9,11,12 2025-01-01,527.0,3730.0,6239.0,201.25806451612902 2025-02-01,473.0,3366.0,5633.0,201.17857142857142 2025-03-01,523.0,3734.0,6242.0,201.3548387096774 2025-04-01,505.0,3624.0,6050.0,201.66666666666666 2025-05-01,522.0,3751.0,6258.0,201.8709677419355 2025-06-01,507.0,3645.0,6069.0,202.3 2025-07-01,523.0,3764.0,6267.0,202.16129032258064 2025-08-01,521.0,3764.0,6276.0,202.4516129032258 2025-09-01,506.0,3646.0,6080.0,202.66666666666666 2025-10-01,523.0,3769.0,6293.0,203.0 2025-11-01,508.0,3651.0,6087.0,202.9 2025-12-01,521.0,3775.0,6300.0,203.2258064516129 2026-01-01,499.0,3802.0,6306.0,203.41935483870967 2026-02-01,469.0,3443.0,5724.0,204.42857142857142 2026-03-01,465.0,3833.0,6291.0,202.93548387096774 2026-04-01,274.0,3715.0,5902.0,196.73333333333332 2026-05-01,281.0,3835.0,6102.0,196.83870967741936 2026-06-01,276.0,3727.0,5939.0,197.96666666666667 2026-07-01,293.0,3866.0,6160.0,198.70967741935485 https://alvis.international-aluminium.org/api/publication/?publication=primary-aluminium-production
Replacement210 actual scheduled completion and full data receipt = 1589
Convex events2026-09-11 04:16
Verified04:16UTC: lastRun04:15:16.159,exit0,START04:15:33.720078,END04:15:34.071282,cutoff03:55:33.720078. Savedoutput1589charsbelow2000limit. BothJSONpayloadsparse,HTTP200,no pagination,missingnone;5stocks11options.206cancelledonlyafterreplacementverified.192/199preserved. Next21008:15:16.159; no extra collectionneededbefore06researchwhileRTHclosed. CONVEX delayed research only; stock rows=date,o,h,l,c,v; option=date,c,v,n START 2026-09-11T04:15:33.720078+00:00 END 2026-09-11T04:15:34.071282+00:00 cutoff 2026-09-11T03:55:33.720078+00:00 {"ds":"stock-bars","status":200,"next":false,"missing":[],"rows":{"TCOM":[["2026-09-09",40.33,40.36,39,39.19,5317261],["2026-09-10",39.21,39.4,38.665,38.7,5056979]],"VRA":[["2026-09-09",3.36,3.3601,3.04,3.08,167265],["2026-09-10",3.08,3.25,3.035,3.05,217114]],"BB":[["2026-09-09",7.88,7.89,7.68,7.75,5920351],["2026-09-10",7.62,7.755,7.47,7.54,8851942]],"PLAY":[["2026-09-09",8.79,8.83,8.045,8.19,2059725],["2026-09-10",8.07,8.35,7.94,8.17,1789345]],"SFIX":[["2026-09-09",2.95,2.97,2.88,2.89,1204526],["2026-09-10",2.86,2.909,2.82,2.85,1664884]]},"error":null} {"ds":"option-bars","status":200,"next":false,"missing":[],"rows":{"BB261002P00007000":[["2026-09-08",0.26,19,6],["2026-09-10",0.32,106,7]],"PLAY261016C00010000":[["2026-09-09",0.45,54,16],["2026-09-10",0.4,12,7]],"VRA261016P00002500":[["2026-09-09",0.1,2,2]],"BB261002C00008000":[["2026-09-09",0.51,85,15],["2026-09-10",0.4,86,32]],"BB261002P00007500":[["2026-09-09",0.47,20,2],["2026-09-10",0.52,29,11]],"BB261009P00007500":[["2026-09-09",0.46,1,1],["2026-09-10",0.57,29,8]],"BB261016C00008000":[["2026-09-09",0.6,599,85],["2026-09-10",0.51,898,44]],"PLAY261016P00007000":[["2026-09-09",0.47,4,4],["2026-09-10",0.5,1,1]],"SFIX261016P00002500":[["2026-09-09",0.15,17,4]],"TCOM261016C00045000":[["2026-09-09",0.4,11,2],["2026-09-10",0.32,102,31]],"TCOM261016P00035000":[["2026-09-09",0.4,331,40],["2026-09-10",0.48,92,21]]},"error":null} Convex list_jobs #210 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars
KALU R91104 latest 8K is leadership transition, not cash update
Supply chain2026-09-11 04:15
Read original Aug17 2026 filing for Aug12 event: Fred Stephan appointed CEO/president effectiveNov1; KeithHarvey becomesexecutivechair. No new quarterlymetal/workingcapital figures in this instrument. Do not treat latestfilingdate as refreshedcash evidence. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811596/000119312526354093/kalu-20260812.htm
KALU R91104 CLI diagnostic = 21.380010179641307
Supply chain2026-09-11 04:15
{"bars":1030,"return":21.380010179641307,"drawdown":18.447512009954988,"win_rate":41.25,"sample":80,"buyhold":117.99751758378152}; node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols CSTM,KALU --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 1500 --stop-pct 8 --target-pct 24. CLI distinct signal exits/IEX, no chronological holdout; not used for sizing. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex
CSTM R91104 CLI diagnostic = -10.568378812186818
Supply chain2026-09-11 04:15
{"bars":1030,"return":-10.568378812186818,"drawdown":26.762045301826504,"win_rate":39.726027397260275,"sample":73,"buyhold":76.00950118764847}; node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols CSTM,KALU --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 1500 --stop-pct 8 --target-pct 24. CLI distinct signal exits/IEX, no chronological holdout; not used for sizing. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex
BB Collector206 output truncated despite successful process code = 2000
Convex events2026-09-11 04:15
ReadSep11~04:10–04:13UTC. 206lastRun02:30:16.150exit0,lastOutputexactly2000charsendsmidoptionJSON,noEND.192lastEND02:15:20.760400;19900:15:28.239329. New210localtestSTART04:10:11.236193END04:10:11.742466both200,nextfalse,missingnone; accepted04:10:22.459,butnoactualscheduledreceiptasof04:13. Keep206untilreplacementreceiptverified; future06monitorhandleseitherbranch. Convex list_jobs ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars
REV9110400 own ledger calibration = -1.0460528968119984
Quant replication2026-09-11 04:15
{"N":3,"win_rate_pct":33.333333333333336,"mean_return_pct":-0.8609740733728407,"avg_win_pct":7.939941307427634,"avg_loss_pct":5.261431763773078,"realized_USD":-1.0460528968119984} All3operatorliquidations Sep4; natural4–6weekhold, stop/target hitrates and ordertype/session slippage cannot beestimatedfromtheseoutcomes. Noopen/pendingverified; noawaitinglessons. query_trades(fund=quant,status=closed)
ETH/USD C91104 Dec2 native-hourly inconsistency requery = 7.90675779966
Crypto majors2026-09-11 04:14
RequeriedSep11~04:12UTC narrowDec2-Dec3inclusivewindow withoutcache;daily2rows/hour25rows dueinclusiveend. FirstnativeDec2open3020.1375 vs00UTC hourly2798.84;nativeL2975.05 vsfirsthourL2784.24. [{"tf":"1Day","rows":2,"first":{"c":2996.815,"h":3033.991,"l":2975.05,"n":90,"o":3020.1375,"t":"2025-12-02T00:00:00Z","v":2.746724742,"vw":3003.0952137938},"next_page":null},{"tf":"1Hour","rows":25,"first":{"c":2795,"h":2803.15,"l":2784.24,"n":12,"o":2798.84,"t":"2025-12-02T00:00:00Z","v":0.031940169,"vw":2795.073572},"next_page":null}]. Causeunverified; notassumed executableprices. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
C91104 correlated majors hourly returns
Crypto majors2026-09-11 04:14
Sep11 2025-Sep11 2026 adjacentactualhourclose logreturns, pairwiseavailable, Pearson; sharedUSDmarketmarksandregimes. {"BTC":{"BTC":1,"ETH":0.8780411386896751,"SOL":0.8205924398292421},"ETH":{"BTC":0.8780411386896751,"ETH":1,"SOL":0.8472648831597509},"SOL":{"BTC":0.8205924398292421,"ETH":0.8472648831597509,"SOL":1}}. BTC/ETH/SOL notindependentbets. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
SOL/USD C91104 current-range unconditional 20-day block scenarios = -2.4120009301197305
Crypto majors2026-09-11 04:14
Seed91104;10000paths/asset,20resampled24hourblocks fromSep11 2025-Sep11 2026 withcompleteadjacenthourreturns. Current2ATRstop/net3Rcosttarget,fixedstaticfirsthit,nochannel/trail;hourclosepathproxy,taker25bp/slip10bothsides. {"symbol":"SOL","blocks":361,"paths":10000,"horizon_hours":480,"risk_pct":10.020921542386072,"target_up_pct":32.87510957554494,"stop_first_pct":55.19,"target_first_pct":3.94,"neither_pct":40.87,"expected_static_net_pct":-2.4120009301197305,"net_p05_pct":-12.237306285680251,"drawdown_p95_pct":30.711508084274165,"net_loss_pct":67.13}. Unconditionalhistoricalregime,notbreakoutconditionededge/prediction; barrierscangap,unseenfat-tailsnotmodeled. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
ETH/USD C91104 current-range unconditional 20-day block scenarios = -2.001834542718126
Crypto majors2026-09-11 04:14
Seed91104;10000paths/asset,20resampled24hourblocks fromSep11 2025-Sep11 2026 withcompleteadjacenthourreturns. Current2ATRstop/net3Rcosttarget,fixedstaticfirsthit,nochannel/trail;hourclosepathproxy,taker25bp/slip10bothsides. {"symbol":"ETH","blocks":362,"paths":10000,"horizon_hours":480,"risk_pct":7.197333607843421,"target_up_pct":24.404345771917015,"stop_first_pct":64.69,"target_first_pct":8.12,"neither_pct":27.189999999999998,"expected_static_net_pct":-2.001834542718126,"net_p05_pct":-9.580193782837904,"drawdown_p95_pct":29.637587934025987,"net_loss_pct":71.26}. Unconditionalhistoricalregime,notbreakoutconditionededge/prediction; barrierscangap,unseenfat-tailsnotmodeled. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
BTC/USD C91104 current-range unconditional 20-day block scenarios = -1.8309000501565893
Crypto majors2026-09-11 04:14
Seed91104;10000paths/asset,20resampled24hourblocks fromSep11 2025-Sep11 2026 withcompleteadjacenthourreturns. Current2ATRstop/net3Rcosttarget,fixedstaticfirsthit,nochannel/trail;hourclosepathproxy,taker25bp/slip10bothsides. {"symbol":"BTC","blocks":363,"paths":10000,"horizon_hours":480,"risk_pct":5.941776887215839,"target_up_pct":20.637675610034268,"stop_first_pct":59.809999999999995,"target_first_pct":4.25,"neither_pct":35.94,"expected_static_net_pct":-1.8309000501565893,"net_p05_pct":-7.811984302045769,"drawdown_p95_pct":21.788280555407763,"net_loss_pct":69.1}. Unconditionalhistoricalregime,notbreakoutconditionededge/prediction; barrierscangap,unseenfat-tailsnotmodeled. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
ETH/USD C91104 uncertainty aggregate rolling/hourly = 2.8749449413689305
Crypto majors2026-09-11 04:14
Seed91104,20000IIDtradebootstraps perpolicy;REUSED2026holdout. Fractiongrid0..1 step.001 empiricalmeanlogwealth max thenhalf. p_half_terminal_loss and half_terminalquantiles are FIXED50%notional scenario, NOT actualKellydeployment whereKelly=0. {"source":"aggregate","signal":"rolling","execution":"hourly","sample":6,"mean_pct":2.8749449413689305,"ci_low":-1.587869542874254,"ci_high":8.390856561310274,"cash_kelly":1,"half_kelly":0.5,"half_notional":117.93,"quarter_probe":29.4825,"p_half_terminal_loss":0.1339,"half_terminal_p05_pct":-3.1281417839036485,"half_terminal_p95_pct":24.13326002338787,"return_ex_best_pct":1.735528322177382}. Cash235.86;positioncap212.7475;actual0absentsignal. Notcausalprobabilities/newindependenttrials. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
ETH/USD C91104 uncertainty native_full calendar/hourly = 1.206383658578168
Crypto majors2026-09-11 04:14
Seed91104,20000IIDtradebootstraps perpolicy;REUSED2026holdout. Fractiongrid0..1 step.001 empiricalmeanlogwealth max thenhalf. p_half_terminal_loss and half_terminalquantiles are FIXED50%notional scenario, NOT actualKellydeployment whereKelly=0. {"source":"native_full","signal":"calendar","execution":"hourly","sample":7,"mean_pct":1.206383658578168,"ci_low":-2.7359771304574405,"ci_high":6.438505785815583,"cash_kelly":1,"half_kelly":0.5,"half_notional":117.93,"quarter_probe":29.4825,"p_half_terminal_loss":0.34195,"half_terminal_p05_pct":-8.004593607625054,"half_terminal_p95_pct":20.45378951640138,"return_ex_best_pct":-6.869318343864849}. Cash235.86;positioncap212.7475;actual0absentsignal. Notcausalprobabilities/newindependenttrials. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
ETH/USD C91104 uncertainty native_full daily/hourly = -3.4959968944106445
Crypto majors2026-09-11 04:14
Seed91104,20000IIDtradebootstraps perpolicy;REUSED2026holdout. Fractiongrid0..1 step.001 empiricalmeanlogwealth max thenhalf. p_half_terminal_loss and half_terminalquantiles are FIXED50%notional scenario, NOT actualKellydeployment whereKelly=0. {"source":"native_full","signal":"daily","execution":"hourly","sample":5,"mean_pct":-3.4959968944106445,"ci_low":-7.575843542635533,"ci_high":1.1717157260282463,"cash_kelly":0,"half_kelly":0,"half_notional":0,"quarter_probe":0,"p_half_terminal_loss":0.9271,"half_terminal_p05_pct":-16.743550782829566,"half_terminal_p95_pct":0.711301145623966,"return_ex_best_pct":-20.67865778345819}. Cash235.86;positioncap212.7475;actual0absentsignal. Notcausalprobabilities/newindependenttrials. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
ETH/USD C91104 uncertainty native_full daily/daily = -3.5218771014378847
Crypto majors2026-09-11 04:14
Seed91104,20000IIDtradebootstraps perpolicy;REUSED2026holdout. Fractiongrid0..1 step.001 empiricalmeanlogwealth max thenhalf. p_half_terminal_loss and half_terminalquantiles are FIXED50%notional scenario, NOT actualKellydeployment whereKelly=0. {"source":"native_full","signal":"daily","execution":"daily","sample":5,"mean_pct":-3.5218771014378847,"ci_low":-9.559164960981189,"ci_high":3.3356547935800935,"cash_kelly":0,"half_kelly":0,"half_notional":0,"quarter_probe":0,"p_half_terminal_loss":0.847,"half_terminal_p05_pct":-20.35893178823135,"half_terminal_p95_pct":5.645942760862321,"return_ex_best_pct":-24.77616166255293}. Cash235.86;positioncap212.7475;actual0absentsignal. Notcausalprobabilities/newindependenttrials. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
SOL/USD C91104 largest native versus aggregated c discrepancies
Crypto majors2026-09-11 04:14
Historical2024-2026asretrievedSep11 04UTC. Native/aggregate comparison onfull24hUTCdays;largest3absoluterelativedifferences,notclaimofcause. [{"s":"SOL","field":"c","day":"2025-06-01 00:00:00+00:00","native":157.93,"aggregate":157.748,"difference_pct":0.115373887466097,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"SOL","field":"c","day":"2024-09-29 00:00:00+00:00","native":158.6095,"aggregate":158.435,"difference_pct":0.11013980496732412,"day_hour_n":24},{"s":"SOL","field":"c","day":"2024-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","native":135.965,"aggregate":136.1,"difference_pct":-0.0991917707567902,"day_hour_n":24}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
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