Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
CNXC CNXC91106 event 2021-09-27 metrics 2
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 06:14
[{"k":5,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-09-20","exit_date":"2021-09-24","entry":146.89,"exit":151.66,"adr":3.927499999999996,"reason":"time","net":0.02629697627823524,"stock_bull":false,"market_bull":true,"mom20":0.028093737152254272,"ma_distance":-0.021868450302977016,"rv20":0.2333919950965777,"benchmark":0.02077355112451862,"mfe_R":1.387651177593895,"mae_R":-0.8300445576066184},{"k":5,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-09-20","exit_date":"2021-09-24","entry":146.89,"exit":151.66,"adr":3.927499999999996,"reason":"time","net":0.022199936361257055,"stock_bull":false,"market_bull":true,"mom20":0.028093737152254272,"ma_distance":-0.021868450302977016,"rv20":0.2333919950965777,"benchmark":0.02077355112451862,"mfe_R":1.387651177593895,"mae_R":-0.8300445576066184},{"k":5,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-09-20","exit_date":"2021-09-24","entry":146.89,"exit":151.66,"adr":3.927499999999996,"reason":"time","net":0.02629697627823524,"stock_bull":false,"market_bull":true,"mom20":0.028093737152254272,"ma_distance":-0.021868450302977016,"rv20":0.2333919950965777,"benchmark":0.02077355112451862,"mfe_R":1.387651177593895,"mae_R":-0.8300445576066184},{"k":5,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-09-20","exit_date":"2021-09-24","entry":146.89,"exit":151.66,"adr":3.927499999999996,"reason":"time","net":0.022199936361257055,"stock_bull":false,"market_bull":true,"mom20":0.028093737152254272,"ma_distance":-0.021868450302977016,"rv20":0.2333919950965777,"benchmark":0.02077355112451862,"mfe_R":1.387651177593895,"mae_R":-0.8300445576066184}]; computed2026-09-11;netdecimalreturns,fees5bp;RVannualdecimal;notfundtrades. https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2021/Concentrix-Schedules-Release-of-Fiscal-Third-Quarter-2021-Financial-Results-and-Webcast-of-Investor-Conference-Call-09-07-2021/default.aspx ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CNXC CNXC91106 event 2021-09-27 metrics 1
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 06:14
[{"k":3,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-09-22","exit_date":"2021-09-24","entry":146.44,"exit":151.66,"adr":4.230999999999997,"reason":"time","net":0.029450715962236806,"stock_bull":false,"market_bull":true,"mom20":-0.01030718112158413,"ma_distance":-0.0481904532100339,"rv20":0.24030411201977556,"benchmark":0.01802705280923611,"mfe_R":1.394469392578589,"mae_R":-0.47270148900969067},{"k":3,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-09-22","exit_date":"2021-09-24","entry":146.44,"exit":151.66,"adr":4.230999999999997,"reason":"time","net":0.025341086124726964,"stock_bull":false,"market_bull":true,"mom20":-0.01030718112158413,"ma_distance":-0.0481904532100339,"rv20":0.24030411201977556,"benchmark":0.01802705280923611,"mfe_R":1.394469392578589,"mae_R":-0.47270148900969067},{"k":3,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-09-22","exit_date":"2021-09-24","entry":146.44,"exit":151.66,"adr":4.230999999999997,"reason":"time","net":0.029450715962236806,"stock_bull":false,"market_bull":true,"mom20":-0.01030718112158413,"ma_distance":-0.0481904532100339,"rv20":0.24030411201977556,"benchmark":0.01802705280923611,"mfe_R":1.394469392578589,"mae_R":-0.47270148900969067},{"k":3,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-09-22","exit_date":"2021-09-24","entry":146.44,"exit":151.66,"adr":4.230999999999997,"reason":"time","net":0.025341086124726964,"stock_bull":false,"market_bull":true,"mom20":-0.01030718112158413,"ma_distance":-0.0481904532100339,"rv20":0.24030411201977556,"benchmark":0.01802705280923611,"mfe_R":1.394469392578589,"mae_R":-0.47270148900969067}]; computed2026-09-11;netdecimalreturns,fees5bp;RVannualdecimal;notfundtrades. https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2021/Concentrix-Schedules-Release-of-Fiscal-Third-Quarter-2021-Financial-Results-and-Webcast-of-Investor-Conference-Call-09-07-2021/default.aspx ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CNXC CNXC91106 event 2021-06-23 metrics 3
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 06:14
[{"k":10,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-06-09","exit_date":"2021-06-22","entry":136.66,"exit":139.45,"adr":4.883500000000002,"reason":"time","net":0.0143114564016531,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":-0.01838420107719929,"ma_distance":0.007135936458114722,"rv20":0.3259350156901075,"benchmark":0.003094797189315379,"mfe_R":1.8367973789290457,"mae_R":-0.8825637350261084},{"k":10,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-06-09","exit_date":"2021-06-22","entry":136.66,"exit":139.45,"adr":4.883500000000002,"reason":"time","net":0.010262263408611583,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":-0.01838420107719929,"ma_distance":0.007135936458114722,"rv20":0.3259350156901075,"benchmark":0.003094797189315379,"mfe_R":1.8367973789290457,"mae_R":-0.8825637350261084},{"k":10,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-06-09","exit_date":"2021-06-22","entry":136.66,"exit":139.45,"adr":4.883500000000002,"reason":"time","net":0.0143114564016531,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":-0.01838420107719929,"ma_distance":0.007135936458114722,"rv20":0.3259350156901075,"benchmark":0.003094797189315379,"mfe_R":1.8367973789290457,"mae_R":-0.8825637350261084},{"k":10,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-06-09","exit_date":"2021-06-22","entry":136.66,"exit":139.45,"adr":4.883500000000002,"reason":"time","net":0.010262263408611583,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":-0.01838420107719929,"ma_distance":0.007135936458114722,"rv20":0.3259350156901075,"benchmark":0.003094797189315379,"mfe_R":1.8367973789290457,"mae_R":-0.8825637350261084}]; computed2026-09-11;netdecimalreturns,fees5bp;RVannualdecimal;notfundtrades. https://ir.concentrix.com/news-releases/news-release-details/concentrix-schedules-release-fiscal-second-quarter-2021/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CNXC CNXC91106 event 2021-06-23 metrics 2
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 06:14
[{"k":5,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-06-16","exit_date":"2021-06-22","entry":135.74,"exit":139.45,"adr":4.264999999999999,"reason":"time","net":0.021186117812361127,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.0021361225692400065,"ma_distance":0.006164188542078897,"rv20":0.25851887138847585,"benchmark":-0.00032864799271914436,"mfe_R":2.318874560375144,"mae_R":-0.5416178194607275},{"k":5,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-06-16","exit_date":"2021-06-22","entry":135.74,"exit":139.45,"adr":4.264999999999999,"reason":"time","net":0.01710948075306362,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.0021361225692400065,"ma_distance":0.006164188542078897,"rv20":0.25851887138847585,"benchmark":-0.00032864799271914436,"mfe_R":2.318874560375144,"mae_R":-0.5416178194607275},{"k":5,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-06-16","exit_date":"2021-06-22","entry":135.74,"exit":139.45,"adr":4.264999999999999,"reason":"time","net":0.021186117812361127,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.0021361225692400065,"ma_distance":0.006164188542078897,"rv20":0.25851887138847585,"benchmark":-0.00032864799271914436,"mfe_R":2.318874560375144,"mae_R":-0.5416178194607275},{"k":5,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-06-16","exit_date":"2021-06-22","entry":135.74,"exit":139.45,"adr":4.264999999999999,"reason":"time","net":0.01710948075306362,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.0021361225692400065,"ma_distance":0.006164188542078897,"rv20":0.25851887138847585,"benchmark":-0.00032864799271914436,"mfe_R":2.318874560375144,"mae_R":-0.5416178194607275}]; computed2026-09-11;netdecimalreturns,fees5bp;RVannualdecimal;notfundtrades. https://ir.concentrix.com/news-releases/news-release-details/concentrix-schedules-release-fiscal-second-quarter-2021/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CNXC CNXC91106 event 2021-06-23 metrics 1
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 06:14
[{"k":3,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-06-18","exit_date":"2021-06-22","entry":138.22,"exit":139.45,"adr":4.355500000000001,"reason":"time","net":0.0028635771368101803,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.04543065254937306,"ma_distance":0.026045428415606864,"rv20":0.25780622301869655,"benchmark":0.01444330425859408,"mfe_R":1.701297210423601,"mae_R":-0.3627597290781798},{"k":3,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-06-18","exit_date":"2021-06-22","entry":138.22,"exit":139.45,"adr":4.355500000000001,"reason":"time","net":-0.001139915226299748,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.04543065254937306,"ma_distance":0.026045428415606864,"rv20":0.25780622301869655,"benchmark":0.01444330425859408,"mfe_R":1.701297210423601,"mae_R":-0.3627597290781798},{"k":3,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-06-18","exit_date":"2021-06-22","entry":138.22,"exit":139.45,"adr":4.355500000000001,"reason":"time","net":0.0028635771368101803,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.04543065254937306,"ma_distance":0.026045428415606864,"rv20":0.25780622301869655,"benchmark":0.01444330425859408,"mfe_R":1.701297210423601,"mae_R":-0.3627597290781798},{"k":3,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-06-18","exit_date":"2021-06-22","entry":138.22,"exit":139.45,"adr":4.355500000000001,"reason":"time","net":-0.001139915226299748,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.04543065254937306,"ma_distance":0.026045428415606864,"rv20":0.25780622301869655,"benchmark":0.01444330425859408,"mfe_R":1.701297210423601,"mae_R":-0.3627597290781798}]; computed2026-09-11;netdecimalreturns,fees5bp;RVannualdecimal;notfundtrades. https://ir.concentrix.com/news-releases/news-release-details/concentrix-schedules-release-fiscal-second-quarter-2021/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CNXC CNXC91106 event 2021-03-24 metrics 3
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 06:14
[{"k":10,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-03-10","exit_date":"2021-03-23","entry":121.66,"exit":115.43,"adr":4.996499999999998,"reason":"time","net":-0.056884001430407505,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.21226747109100041,"ma_distance":0.1372994797439755,"rv20":0.3790102061618079,"benchmark":0.003123099883920233,"mfe_R":1.8532973081156798,"mae_R":-1.4890423296307416},{"k":10,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-03-10","exit_date":"2021-03-23","entry":121.66,"exit":115.43,"adr":4.996499999999998,"reason":"time","net":-0.06064897782787526,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.21226747109100041,"ma_distance":0.1372994797439755,"rv20":0.3790102061618079,"benchmark":0.003123099883920233,"mfe_R":1.8532973081156798,"mae_R":-1.4890423296307416},{"k":10,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-03-10","exit_date":"2021-03-22","entry":121.66,"exit":116.6635,"adr":4.996499999999998,"reason":"stop","net":-0.04680574114940972,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.21226747109100041,"ma_distance":0.1372994797439755,"rv20":0.3790102061618079,"benchmark":0.003123099883920233,"mfe_R":1.8532973081156798,"mae_R":-1.4890423296307416},{"k":10,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-03-10","exit_date":"2021-03-22","entry":121.66,"exit":116.6635,"adr":4.996499999999998,"reason":"stop","net":-0.05061095057456777,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.21226747109100041,"ma_distance":0.1372994797439755,"rv20":0.3790102061618079,"benchmark":0.003123099883920233,"mfe_R":1.8532973081156798,"mae_R":-1.4890423296307416}]; computed2026-09-11;netdecimalreturns,fees5bp;RVannualdecimal;notfundtrades. https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2021/Concentrix-Schedules-Release-of-Fiscal-First-Quarter-2021-Financial-Results-and-Webcast-of-Investor-Conference-Call-03-04-2021/default.aspx ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CNXC CNXC91106 event 2021-03-24 metrics 2
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 06:14
[{"k":5,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-03-17","exit_date":"2021-03-23","entry":128.07,"exit":115.43,"adr":5.767499999999998,"reason":"time","net":-0.10408766779123446,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.2859007832898173,"ma_distance":0.13754980389369864,"rv20":0.39274992535830444,"benchmark":-0.009199606901070134,"mfe_R":0.45426961421759954,"mae_R":-2.401387082791504},{"k":5,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-03-17","exit_date":"2021-03-23","entry":128.07,"exit":115.43,"adr":5.767499999999998,"reason":"time","net":-0.10766420428312096,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.2859007832898173,"ma_distance":0.13754980389369864,"rv20":0.39274992535830444,"benchmark":-0.009199606901070134,"mfe_R":0.45426961421759954,"mae_R":-2.401387082791504},{"k":5,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-03-17","exit_date":"2021-03-17","entry":128.07,"exit":122.3025,"adr":5.767499999999998,"reason":"stop","net":-0.05074661691100624,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.2859007832898173,"ma_distance":0.13754980389369864,"rv20":0.39274992535830444,"benchmark":-0.009199606901070134,"mfe_R":0.45426961421759954,"mae_R":-2.401387082791504},{"k":5,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-03-17","exit_date":"2021-03-17","entry":128.07,"exit":122.3025,"adr":5.767499999999998,"reason":"stop","net":-0.054536094120561596,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.2859007832898173,"ma_distance":0.13754980389369864,"rv20":0.39274992535830444,"benchmark":-0.009199606901070134,"mfe_R":0.45426961421759954,"mae_R":-2.401387082791504}]; computed2026-09-11;netdecimalreturns,fees5bp;RVannualdecimal;notfundtrades. https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2021/Concentrix-Schedules-Release-of-Fiscal-First-Quarter-2021-Financial-Results-and-Webcast-of-Investor-Conference-Call-03-04-2021/default.aspx ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CNXC CNXC91106 event 2021-03-24 metrics 1
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 06:14
[{"k":3,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-03-19","exit_date":"2021-03-23","entry":120.33,"exit":115.43,"adr":6.279999999999999,"reason":"time","net":-0.04645979900293673,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.18935376153997252,"ma_distance":0.055558461028886175,"rv20":0.4400483694577791,"benchmark":-0.0006608111456813948,"mfe_R":0.38853503184713345,"mae_R":-0.9729299363057325},{"k":3,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-03-19","exit_date":"2021-03-23","entry":120.33,"exit":115.43,"adr":6.279999999999999,"reason":"time","net":-0.05026638945017292,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.18935376153997252,"ma_distance":0.055558461028886175,"rv20":0.4400483694577791,"benchmark":-0.0006608111456813948,"mfe_R":0.38853503184713345,"mae_R":-0.9729299363057325},{"k":3,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-03-19","exit_date":"2021-03-23","entry":120.33,"exit":115.43,"adr":6.279999999999999,"reason":"time","net":-0.04645979900293673,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.18935376153997252,"ma_distance":0.055558461028886175,"rv20":0.4400483694577791,"benchmark":-0.0006608111456813948,"mfe_R":0.38853503184713345,"mae_R":-0.9729299363057325},{"k":3,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-03-19","exit_date":"2021-03-23","entry":120.33,"exit":115.43,"adr":6.279999999999999,"reason":"time","net":-0.05026638945017292,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.18935376153997252,"ma_distance":0.055558461028886175,"rv20":0.4400483694577791,"benchmark":-0.0006608111456813948,"mfe_R":0.38853503184713345,"mae_R":-0.9729299363057325}]; computed2026-09-11;netdecimalreturns,fees5bp;RVannualdecimal;notfundtrades. https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2021/Concentrix-Schedules-Release-of-Fiscal-First-Quarter-2021-Financial-Results-and-Webcast-of-Investor-Conference-Call-03-04-2021/default.aspx ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
LPG R91106 sparse intraday sessions and current signal measurements = 0
Supply chain2026-09-11 06:14
Sep10 close54.41,prior20high55.20,SMA50 45.5232,ADR20 1.690275,20dayannualvol.3578195092 =>signalfalse. 14sessions<26RTHbars:2021-04-19:1,2021-10-25:1,2021-11-26:15,2022-01-24:5,2022-03-08:1,2022-11-25:15,2023-07-03:15,2023-11-24:16,2024-07-03:17,2024-11-29:15,2024-12-24:15,2025-07-03:18,2025-11-28:16,2025-12-24:15. Some dates are expected shortened sessions, but no exchangecalendar reconciliation performed; extreme1/5bar days are unknown coverage, not continuous15min proof. All modeled entries have09:30bar. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LPG&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=split
CNXC CNXC91106 event vector 2021-03-24
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 06:14
[{"k":3,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-03-19","exit_date":"2021-03-23","entry":120.33,"exit":115.43,"adr":6.279999999999999,"reason":"time","net":-0.04645979900293673,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.18935376153997252,"ma_distance":0.055558461028886175,"rv20":0.4400483694577791,"benchmark":-0.0006608111456813948,"mfe_R":0.38853503184713345,"mae_R":-0.9729299363057325},{"k":3,"barrier":false,"slippage_bp":45,"entry_date":"2021-03-19","exit_date":"2021-03-23","entry":120.33,"exit":115.43,"adr":6.279999999999999,"reason":"time","net":-0.05026638945017292,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.18935376153997252,"ma_distance":0.055558461028886175,"rv20":0.4400483694577791,"benchmark":-0.0006608111456813948,"mfe_R":0.38853503184713345,"mae_R":-0.9729299363057325},{"k":3,"barrier":true,"slippage_bp":25,"entry_date":"2021-03-19","exit_date":"2021-03-23","entry":120.33,"exit":115.43,"adr":6.279999999999999,"reason":"time","net":-0.04645979900293673,"stock_bull":true,"market_bull":false,"mom20":0.18935376153997252,"ma_distance":0.055558461028886175,"rv20":0.4400483694577791,"benchmark":-0.0006608111456813948,"mfe_R":0.38853503184713345,"mae_R":-0.9729299363057325}] https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2021/Concentrix-Schedules-Release-of-Fiscal-First-Quarter-2021-Financial-Results-and-Webcast-of-Investor-Conference-Call-03-04-2021/default.aspx ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
LPG R91106 CLI diagnostic = 74.13259940925691
Supply chain2026-09-11 06:14
node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols LPG --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 2000 --stop-pct 8 --target-pct 24. 1372bars,102trades,return74.13259941%,DD13.36461095%,win38.23529412%,buyhold306.80882903%,meantrade0.62576532%. DifferentIEX/fullsample/ownsignalexit; not independent validation or sizing. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LPG&feed=iex
LPG R91106 completed-only raw holdout metrics = 21.736427082533915
Supply chain2026-09-11 06:14
2025–Sep10 2026:12 completed trades, compounded21.73642708%,win58.333333%,mean2.02234159%; stress13.30909177%,win50%,mean1.41426211%. Aug18trade unfinished17sessions:Sep10netmark+11.51107868% base/+10.84400675%stress excluded. Including mark produces35.74960299/25.59633734%; marked-curve DD26.04481869/29.07742228%. Training31complete base10.25087765%,stress-8.32795666%. Does not establish settlement-aware reinvestable cash or actual venue fills. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LPG&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=split
VM9110600 hashes
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:14
{"bars.json":"917e6880861699d5205ae818148c224449dbaee28552b9a1808e18ba05915173","test_vm.py":"b3521cfb6f39fc41907760ac216645d9d270f5cea9e11916c84447834c1c8f98","results.json":"def99176a73ecb72fe541d3637a849dca67f5a5cc6811d95e5e0566e85935426","inference.py":"3c190dbbae2043376e4be7ce5b1eda08012c67092622d32b08e6095821a002b5"};MeasuredSep11,frozenprimary empiricalinference notforecast. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py
VM9110600 correlation_2022
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:14
{"SPY":{"SPY":1,"EFA":0.8624812876997651,"EEM":0.710881576391769,"TLT":0.08490518149170549,"GLD":0.19437033055580202},"EFA":{"SPY":0.8624812876997651,"EFA":1,"EEM":0.8229418417753886,"TLT":0.09559542486120301,"GLD":0.31308272726595243},"EEM":{"SPY":0.710881576391769,"EFA":0.8229418417753886,"EEM":1,"TLT":0.05331224488779405,"GLD":0.29100536042057085},"TLT":{"SPY":0.08490518149170549,"EFA":0.09559542486120301,"EEM":0.05331224488779405,"TLT":1,"GLD":0.34265446952136064},"GLD":{"SPY":0.19437033055580202,"EFA":0.31308272726595243,"EEM":0.29100536042057085,"TLT":0.34265446952136064,"GLD":1}};MeasuredSep11,frozenprimary empiricalinference notforecast. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py
VM9110600 correlation_test
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:14
{"SPY":{"SPY":1,"EFA":0.758451592357553,"EEM":0.6722159395237813,"TLT":0.11834935545819468,"GLD":0.14781949029978084},"EFA":{"SPY":0.758451592357553,"EFA":1,"EEM":0.7876002845720026,"TLT":0.21903565760089785,"GLD":0.34808110044401414},"EEM":{"SPY":0.6722159395237813,"EFA":0.7876002845720026,"EEM":1,"TLT":0.1526060670661739,"GLD":0.3837628971166462},"TLT":{"SPY":0.11834935545819468,"EFA":0.21903565760089785,"EEM":0.1526060670661739,"TLT":1,"GLD":0.17729034764039708},"GLD":{"SPY":0.14781949029978084,"EFA":0.34808110044401414,"EEM":0.3837628971166462,"TLT":0.17729034764039708,"GLD":1}};MeasuredSep11,frozenprimary empiricalinference notforecast. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py
VM9110600 simulation
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:13
{"paths":10000,"block_sessions":21,"seed":9110600,"fund_USD":187.22,"21session_PnL_P5_median_P95":[-7.14047330736388,1.125154853843443,9.14849703139084],"21session_loss_probability":0.4126,"21session_gain349_count":0,"252session_returns_P5_median_P95_pct":[-7.376897558668151,7.643081752785874,26.104634610707905],"252session_maxDD_median_P95_pct":[7.191690568235187,13.960921829242853]};MeasuredSep11,frozenprimary empiricalinference notforecast. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py
GLD VM9110600 test attribution
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:13
{"attribution":{"adapter":{"beta":0.22351920148388565,"annual_intercept_pct":3.136744265647853,"intercept_HAC_t":0.9294568376521414},"monthly":{"beta":0.495164279696505,"annual_intercept_pct":4.221299849098135,"intercept_HAC_t":1.1668790672879124},"constant":{"beta":0.8934671972248269,"annual_intercept_pct":-0.3925229446176951,"intercept_HAC_t":-1.3438249468134835}},"monthly_minus_constant_mean_pp":-0.4589406092176363,"monthly_minus_constant_CI_pp":[-1.081790913100364,0.3603212788200001],"lag_var_current_var_corr":0.5702596348777869,"lag_var_return_corr":-0.14183169737114673,"variance_AR1_slope":0.5735739712277674,"variance_AR1_HAC_t":5.7516902692946585,"return_on_lagvariance_HAC_t":-1.003554860434899,"regimes":[{"high_var":false,"months":5,"asset_mean_pct":2.091748670133846,"asset_std_pct":5.747157445649563,"managed_mean_pct":2.019369818712524,"constant_mean_pct":1.865802575679405},{"high_var":true,"months":39,"asset_mean_pct":2.1561790946447785,"asset_std_pct":5.217062946774644,"managed_mean_pct":1.352509083551276,"constant_mean_pct":1.8899763404933685}]};Sep11measurement;seed9110600,10000 three-monthblocks. half_Kelly=binaryrisk-unitproxy,notallocation;logwealthsizingseparate. HACregressionsdescriptive. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py
GLD VM9110600 test payoff
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:13
{"raw_trade":{"p":0.5227272727272727,"win_loss":1.7437437571504693,"half_Kelly":0.12451075149577587,"mean_pct":1.156883181190205,"meanwin_pct":4.645716001599482,"meanloss_pct":2.6642194316390024},"monthly_fund":{"p":0.5227272727272727,"win_loss":1.8924630688304855,"half_Kelly":0.13526534278698155,"mean_pct":0.7539657674908142,"meanwin_pct":2.7869879747326474,"meanloss_pct":1.4726776023454795},"trade_mean_CI_pct":[-0.2881342249072965,2.3222796686171248],"fund_month_mean_CI_pct":[0.01373467667745678,1.4555121959554778],"reasons":{"time":17,"gapstop":8,"target":8,"stop":8,"gaptarget":3},"target_hit_rate":0.25,"target_Wilson95":[0.14574066080685744,0.39440849808414946],"partials":16,"R_quantiles":[-1.959755413307422,-1.3046508896221773,0.15738871032945762,2.756317595246988,2.7815737898311736],"same_day_exits":0,"mean_calendar_days":19.704545454545453};Sep11measurement;seed9110600,10000 three-monthblocks. half_Kelly=binaryrisk-unitproxy,notallocation;logwealthsizingseparate. HACregressionsdescriptive. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py
GLD VM9110600 train attribution
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:13
{"attribution":{"adapter":{"beta":0.34407744455387385,"annual_intercept_pct":-0.9131940158626164,"intercept_HAC_t":-0.2937257327549947},"monthly":{"beta":0.6993729838228316,"annual_intercept_pct":-0.8997592156742243,"intercept_HAC_t":-0.3902269627410152},"constant":{"beta":0.891720594891813,"annual_intercept_pct":-0.11579082233651371,"intercept_HAC_t":-1.6881293982451433}},"monthly_minus_constant_mean_pp":-0.2166204083689447,"monthly_minus_constant_CI_pp":[-0.6013459502178562,0.1755379277895631],"lag_var_current_var_corr":0.1559189870926584,"lag_var_return_corr":0.16280959466108585,"variance_AR1_slope":0.15538275284595088,"variance_AR1_HAC_t":2.3745860181116263,"return_on_lagvariance_HAC_t":1.5317803983212177,"regimes":[{"high_var":false,"months":12,"asset_mean_pct":0.4873846949298044,"asset_std_pct":3.9745062947810745,"managed_mean_pct":0.48588903113111664,"constant_mean_pct":0.4157041221854729},{"high_var":true,"months":36,"asset_mean_pct":0.8860077116600936,"asset_std_pct":4.306554855552968,"managed_mean_pct":0.47305214263676476,"constant_mean_pct":0.7852743234439056}]};Sep11measurement;seed9110600,10000 three-monthblocks. half_Kelly=binaryrisk-unitproxy,notallocation;logwealthsizingseparate. HACregressionsdescriptive. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py
GLD VM9110600 train payoff
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:13
{"raw_trade":{"p":0.4791666666666667,"win_loss":1.4300968246654404,"half_Kelly":0.057486105946237376,"mean_pct":0.39022782352469954,"meanwin_pct":3.394105559086327,"meanloss_pct":2.373339693191998},"monthly_fund":{"p":0.4791666666666667,"win_loss":1.3245988137716957,"half_Kelly":0.042982925753962425,"mean_pct":0.19983464724921177,"meanwin_pct":2.3245817233694233,"meanloss_pct":1.7549326627813828},"trade_mean_CI_pct":[-0.6187108737982553,1.2444438822666493],"fund_month_mean_CI_pct":[-0.5278162184117247,0.839501250860123],"reasons":{"stop":19,"time":14,"gapstop":7,"target":5,"gaptarget":3},"target_hit_rate":0.16666666666666666,"target_Wilson95":[0.08695410039453222,0.29578100037396254],"partials":12,"R_quantiles":[-1.692227471270397,-1.331577429736301,-0.5892282000623725,2.7157358058627517,3.668527393305773],"same_day_exits":1,"mean_calendar_days":16.895833333333332};Sep11measurement;seed9110600,10000 three-monthblocks. half_Kelly=binaryrisk-unitproxy,notallocation;logwealthsizingseparate. HACregressionsdescriptive. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py
TLT VM9110600 test attribution
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:13
{"attribution":{"adapter":{"beta":0.28727918837873684,"annual_intercept_pct":-4.1719994547878825,"intercept_HAC_t":-1.725531422978228},"monthly":{"beta":0.5840040736293871,"annual_intercept_pct":-2.301737510044549,"intercept_HAC_t":-1.1661324024074227},"constant":{"beta":0.8931008315709146,"annual_intercept_pct":-0.746205473729226,"intercept_HAC_t":-1.0926298801278915}},"monthly_minus_constant_mean_pp":-0.12311707750222696,"monthly_minus_constant_CI_pp":[-0.678661595442801,0.40531402648628134],"lag_var_current_var_corr":0.4509539650913504,"lag_var_return_corr":0.24158811300427543,"variance_AR1_slope":0.41628732589189393,"variance_AR1_HAC_t":3.8629202147792965,"return_on_lagvariance_HAC_t":1.3312122172633625,"regimes":[{"high_var":false,"months":10,"asset_mean_pct":-0.04718678230574147,"asset_std_pct":3.0104450948192696,"managed_mean_pct":-0.06690069903038998,"constant_mean_pct":-0.0580095749627918},{"high_var":true,"months":34,"asset_mean_pct":-0.011651905611059122,"asset_std_pct":4.318516123485614,"managed_mean_pct":-0.2455806176667414,"constant_mean_pct":-0.08886767150727069}]};Sep11measurement;seed9110600,10000 three-monthblocks. half_Kelly=binaryrisk-unitproxy,notallocation;logwealthsizingseparate. HACregressionsdescriptive. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py
TLT VM9110600 test payoff
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:13
{"raw_trade":{"p":0.38636363636363635,"win_loss":1.284032890053771,"half_Kelly":0,"mean_pct":-0.27452659080791236,"meanwin_pct":2.9991741086224657,"meanloss_pct":2.335745549708521},"monthly_fund":{"p":0.38636363636363635,"win_loss":0.9932709403848013,"half_Kelly":0,"mean_pct":-0.3511272856472731,"meanwin_pct":1.5172079775421592,"meanloss_pct":1.5274865254332117},"trade_mean_CI_pct":[-1.2089827292150432,0.7535874981654227],"fund_month_mean_CI_pct":[-0.8267283107660485,0.1767716272584237],"reasons":{"stop":16,"time":15,"gapstop":10,"target":3},"target_hit_rate":0.06818181818181818,"target_Wilson95":[0.023458970172840127,0.1822532133661719],"partials":8,"R_quantiles":[-1.5535137227171283,-1.3055367916879892,-1.0608043307292947,2.5681412785272917,2.7653524050775],"same_day_exits":0,"mean_calendar_days":15.931818181818182};Sep11measurement;seed9110600,10000 three-monthblocks. half_Kelly=binaryrisk-unitproxy,notallocation;logwealthsizingseparate. HACregressionsdescriptive. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py
TLT VM9110600 train attribution
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:13
{"attribution":{"adapter":{"beta":0.18898920319319581,"annual_intercept_pct":-3.971017804322722,"intercept_HAC_t":-1.5293024063451097},"monthly":{"beta":0.5344816406319213,"annual_intercept_pct":3.4447867043977163,"intercept_HAC_t":1.6522398081945386},"constant":{"beta":0.8990896485416479,"annual_intercept_pct":-0.14177507271437362,"intercept_HAC_t":-1.8918033664943312}},"monthly_minus_constant_mean_pp":0.37305938237054187,"monthly_minus_constant_CI_pp":[-0.08586043078996769,0.9726493356885827],"lag_var_current_var_corr":0.04462492816416884,"lag_var_return_corr":-0.05081207419134459,"variance_AR1_slope":0.04468430259685598,"variance_AR1_HAC_t":0.7188267460323502,"return_on_lagvariance_HAC_t":-0.5522330240943266,"regimes":[{"high_var":false,"months":11,"asset_mean_pct":1.6057403691954197,"asset_std_pct":4.847595454332281,"managed_mean_pct":1.6193661900427088,"constant_mean_pct":1.42123429841291},{"high_var":true,"months":37,"asset_mean_pct":-0.6868055066793897,"asset_std_pct":4.1687739202319625,"managed_mean_pct":-0.19713549854731716,"constant_mean_pct":-0.62220035113808}]};Sep11measurement;seed9110600,10000 three-monthblocks. half_Kelly=binaryrisk-unitproxy,notallocation;logwealthsizingseparate. HACregressionsdescriptive. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py
TLT VM9110600 train payoff
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:13
{"raw_trade":{"p":0.2708333333333333,"win_loss":1.3582093371950779,"half_Kelly":0,"mean_pct":-0.9172123763907651,"meanwin_pct":3.4478364319112305,"meanloss_pct":2.5385162194743636},"monthly_fund":{"p":0.2708333333333333,"win_loss":1.7623577587260084,"half_Kelly":0,"mean_pct":-0.35187396209676153,"meanwin_pct":2.462178435672171,"meanloss_pct":1.3970934241252222},"trade_mean_CI_pct":[-1.735295068249758,-0.03360142317442397],"fund_month_mean_CI_pct":[-0.7798694477865459,0.1740682865775698],"reasons":{"stop":25,"gapstop":9,"time":8,"target":5,"gaptarget":1},"target_hit_rate":0.125,"target_Wilson95":[0.05856971750400844,0.24700727086054822],"partials":8,"R_quantiles":[-1.413164134902296,-1.1803605244198914,-1.0650782822396985,2.6683140247275388,3.3389347150391493],"same_day_exits":0,"mean_calendar_days":13.708333333333334};Sep11measurement;seed9110600,10000 three-monthblocks. half_Kelly=binaryrisk-unitproxy,notallocation;logwealthsizingseparate. HACregressionsdescriptive. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py
EEM VM9110600 test attribution
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:13
{"attribution":{"adapter":{"beta":0.3809806030909822,"annual_intercept_pct":-3.5608608270545847,"intercept_HAC_t":-0.854273444443563},"monthly":{"beta":0.802969548618368,"annual_intercept_pct":-0.11658285846390978,"intercept_HAC_t":-0.04568083471415283},"constant":{"beta":0.8592135509470493,"annual_intercept_pct":-0.4103246131894796,"intercept_HAC_t":-1.3570767130615387}},"monthly_minus_constant_mean_pp":-0.06393957342545054,"monthly_minus_constant_CI_pp":[-0.5858323444733271,0.2789684510595115],"lag_var_current_var_corr":0.42869296578437954,"lag_var_return_corr":0.032974157692675296,"variance_AR1_slope":0.42821631854421616,"variance_AR1_HAC_t":2.7433460526169378,"return_on_lagvariance_HAC_t":0.18573220251596553,"regimes":[{"high_var":false,"months":27,"asset_mean_pct":2.5745674928308286,"asset_std_pct":3.5301876417464753,"managed_mean_pct":2.5066136470697624,"constant_mean_pct":2.167861259927719},{"high_var":true,"months":17,"asset_mean_pct":0.03873472726572582,"asset_std_pct":5.956204839121442,"managed_mean_pct":-0.6817767847511411,"constant_mean_pct":0.0217323731050349}]};Sep11measurement;seed9110600,10000 three-monthblocks. half_Kelly=binaryrisk-unitproxy,notallocation;logwealthsizingseparate. HACregressionsdescriptive. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py
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