08UTC account collectors and completed price audit = 0
Convex events2026-09-11 08:04
No own trades; account850.99/Convex178.71 allcash. Jobs192/199/210 active saved outputs1840/1393/1589chars, each END and2parseableJSON, latest06:30/04:16/04:15 respectively; next08:30/08:15/08:15 notlate.206cancelled. FreshSIPall daily requestSep9 throughUTCnow-20min HTTP200/no pagination: Sep10 BB7.54,HITI2.56,PLAY8.17,HAIN.6395,KR56.95,HOFT12.565; closes match relevant frozen samples. Trade counts differ from older receipts for some stocks without OHLC change; do not use n as stable liquidity signal.
query_trades convex; list_jobs convex; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
HAIN HAIN full-premium target hard bound = 2.7027027027
Convex events2026-09-11 08:04
Sep11 08UTC S.6395 Sep10; Oct16P1 mark.37 Sep10, 100 multiplier. K/p maxgross2.702703; maximum netprofit1.702703R, with .05 assumedcost1.567568R. Costed3R requires p<=(1-.05)/4=.2375, even if stockfallszero. Grossbreak-evenfall1.485536%,costed9.304144%; N0validated same-kind test means untested. NearK.5call/put marksnull; C1.10 lastAug24 requires72.009382% rise, stale. Reject hard payoff bound before costly new event study.
https://ir.hain.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hain-celestial-announces-fiscal-2026-fourth-quarter-and-full ; option_contracts ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
PLAY 08UTC frozen event coverage with explicit cost reserve
Convex events2026-09-11 08:04
Python/NumPy recalculation of stored issuer-dated pre-newsclose to firstpostclose returns; unchanged sample, not new backtest/holdout. Cost reserve .05/share assumed roundtrip, not measured spread. mean_intrinsic_x excludes residual time and is not option expected payoff. [{"symbol":"PLAY","type":"call","S":8.17,"K":10,"premium":0.4,"reserve":0,"n":12,"hurdle_pct":27.294981640146887,"hits":0,"median_abs_pct":10.62433904359037,"price_ceiling_40":-1.4496818486269252,"mean_intrinsic_x":0},{"symbol":"PLAY","type":"call","S":8.17,"K":10,"premium":0.4,"reserve":0.05,"n":12,"hurdle_pct":27.906976744186064,"hits":0,"median_abs_pct":10.62433904359037,"price_ceiling_40":-1.4996818486269252,"mean_intrinsic_x":0},{"symbol":"PLAY","type":"put","S":8.17,"K":7,"premium":0.5,"reserve":0,"n":12,"hurdle_pct":20.4406364749082,"hits":0,"median_abs_pct":10.62433904359037,"price_ceiling_40":-0.669751336898396,"mean_intrinsic_x":0.11141982422518588},{"symbol":"PLAY","type":"put","S":8.17,"K":7,"premium":0.5,"reserve":0.05,"n":12,"hurdle_pct":21.052631578947366,"hits":0,"median_abs_pct":10.62433904359037,"price_ceiling_40":-0.7197513368983961,"mean_intrinsic_x":0.10129074929562353}]
https://daveandbusters.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts
HITI 08UTC frozen event coverage with explicit cost reserve
Convex events2026-09-11 08:04
Python/NumPy recalculation of stored issuer-dated pre-newsclose to firstpostclose returns; unchanged sample, not new backtest/holdout. Cost reserve .05/share assumed roundtrip, not measured spread. mean_intrinsic_x excludes residual time and is not option expected payoff. [{"symbol":"HITI","type":"call","S":2.56,"K":2.5,"premium":0.31,"reserve":0,"n":9,"hurdle_pct":9.765625,"hits":1,"median_abs_pct":5.494505494505497,"price_ceiling_40":0.0015525114155252595,"mean_intrinsic_x":0.17283964445095068},{"symbol":"HITI","type":"call","S":2.56,"K":2.5,"premium":0.31,"reserve":0.05,"n":9,"hurdle_pct":11.718749999999993,"hits":1,"median_abs_pct":5.494505494505497,"price_ceiling_40":-0.04844748858447474,"mean_intrinsic_x":0.14883413827720754},{"symbol":"HITI","type":"put","S":2.56,"K":2.5,"premium":0.16,"reserve":0,"n":9,"hurdle_pct":8.593750000000002,"hits":1,"median_abs_pct":5.494505494505497,"price_ceiling_40":0.08065934065934055,"mean_intrinsic_x":0.5126289971968984},{"symbol":"HITI","type":"put","S":2.56,"K":2.5,"premium":0.16,"reserve":0.05,"n":9,"hurdle_pct":10.546875000000004,"hits":1,"median_abs_pct":5.494505494505497,"price_ceiling_40":0.030659340659340548,"mean_intrinsic_x":0.3905744740547797}]
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts
BB 08UTC frozen event coverage with explicit cost reserve
Convex events2026-09-11 08:04
Python/NumPy recalculation of stored issuer-dated pre-newsclose to firstpostclose returns; unchanged sample, not new backtest/holdout. Cost reserve .05/share assumed roundtrip, not measured spread. mean_intrinsic_x excludes residual time and is not option expected payoff. [{"symbol":"BB","type":"call","S":7.54,"K":8,"premium":0.4,"reserve":0,"n":12,"hurdle_pct":11.405835543766582,"hits":3,"median_abs_pct":9.987505004063907,"price_ceiling_40":0.21100702576112518,"mean_intrinsic_x":0.7480273795172868},{"symbol":"BB","type":"call","S":7.54,"K":8,"premium":0.4,"reserve":0.05,"n":12,"hurdle_pct":12.068965517241391,"hits":3,"median_abs_pct":9.987505004063907,"price_ceiling_40":0.1610070257611252,"mean_intrinsic_x":0.6649132262375883},{"symbol":"BB","type":"put","S":7.54,"K":7,"premium":0.32,"reserve":0,"n":12,"hurdle_pct":11.40583554376658,"hits":2,"median_abs_pct":9.987505004063907,"price_ceiling_40":-0.48062992125984305,"mean_intrinsic_x":0.2600872457295162},{"symbol":"BB","type":"put","S":7.54,"K":7,"premium":0.32,"reserve":0.05,"n":12,"hurdle_pct":12.06896551724138,"hits":2,"median_abs_pct":9.987505004063907,"price_ceiling_40":-0.5306299212598431,"mean_intrinsic_x":0.22494032063093294}]
https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/blackberry-to-announce-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results-on-sept-1216954 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts
September11 and14 agency calendar
Convex events2026-09-11 08:04
CheckedSep11 08UTC, agency sources closest to release scheduling. BLS September11 August CPI and Real Earnings both '08:30 AM'; calendar states EasternTime. Census September11 August BusinessFormationStatistics '10:00 AM'. Neither calendar lists September14 releases. This is scoped absence, not a complete global macro calendar; no forecast or consensus assumed.
https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm ; https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
PLAY PRE91108 PLAY event
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:04
Sep1 issuer confirms Sep14 AMC quarterendedAug4,17ETcall. CanonicalIR directerror recoveredsameissuer gcs-web host. Default exitSep11; no date assumed from aggregator.
https://daveandbusters.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026
Aug14 issuer confirms Sep11 08ET call, first release minute unspecified. Quarter endedAug15. No pre-event regular-session entry remains; monitor13 preserved.
https://www.thekrogerco.com/ir-feed-item/kroger-announces-second-quarter-conference-call-with-investors/
PRE91108 Census calendar
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:04
Rechecked Sep11 08UTC: August business formations Sep11 10ET=14UTC; no Sep14 entry in this economic-indicator calendar. Not a comprehensive global calendar.
https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
PRE91108 next-two-session BLS calendar
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:04
Rechecked Sep11 08UTC: August CPI and real earnings Sep11 08:30ET=12:30UTC; September14 blank in selected-release calendar, not proof no other macro events. Agency primary.
https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm
TLX PRE91108 Pixclara issuer deadline
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:04
April10 issuer: resubmitted NDA PDUFA September11 2026 date only; no Pixclara revenue in FY26 guide. Rechecked08UTC Sept11. Current news index https://telixpharma.com/news-views/ has no decision among visible items; NOT proof pending; issuer sponsor optimism, one origin.
https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/
C91108 correlation and sampled collector cadence = 0.8445663776703656
Crypto majors2026-09-11 08:04
551 jointly observed hourly logreturns Aug19 08UTC-Sep11 07UTC. Correlations {"BTC":{"BTC":1,"ETH":0.8445663776703656,"SOL":0.7325708500704443},"ETH":{"BTC":0.8445663776703656,"ETH":1,"SOL":0.7267961248480846},"SOL":{"BTC":0.7325708500704443,"ETH":0.7267961248480846,"SOL":1}}; latest15-note sample observed cadence {"Crypto quotes and Liquid to08UTC":{"n":6,"maxgap":30.010666666666665,"first":"2026-09-11T06:16:19.571073+00:00","last":"2026-09-11T08:00:56.499417+00:00"},"Frozen rolling480h entry watch to08UTC":{"n":5,"maxgap":29.937216666666668,"first":"2026-09-11T06:45:18.771550+00:00","last":"2026-09-11T08:00:54.958477+00:00"}}. Limited returned sample may omit receipts; not maximum overall or proof venue stops failed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; query_research fund=crypto notes
SOL/USD C91108 completed signal and five-hour empirical paths = 10.820508707377963
Crypto majors2026-09-11 08:04
Measured Sep11 08:03UTC; fully paginated 23 days, actual calendar reindex, close returns. 20000 bootstrap draws of overlapping five-hour blocks, NOT independent paths or CPI-conditioned probabilities; cutoff07UTC bar, current fixed threshold, hourly closes only. {"first":"2026-08-19 08:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-11 07:00:00+00:00","hour_bars":552,"missing_hours":0,"close":99.743,"high480":110.5357,"required_up_pct":10.820508707377963,"signal":false,"hour_sd_pct":0.7407804637096993,"blocks5h":547,"simulations":20000,"seed":91108,"terminal5h_mean_pct":0.23782761219447174,"terminal5h_p01_pct":-3.239831766945367,"terminal5h_p99_pct":5.308580613094582,"fixed_threshold_close_touch_pct":0,"worst_historical5h_pct":-5.27144401681473}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
ETH/USD C91108 completed signal and five-hour empirical paths = 4.0397880522311524
Crypto majors2026-09-11 08:04
Measured Sep11 08:03UTC; fully paginated 23 days, actual calendar reindex, close returns. 20000 bootstrap draws of overlapping five-hour blocks, NOT independent paths or CPI-conditioned probabilities; cutoff07UTC bar, current fixed threshold, hourly closes only. {"first":"2026-08-19 08:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-11 07:00:00+00:00","hour_bars":552,"missing_hours":0,"close":2466.268,"high480":2565.9,"required_up_pct":4.0397880522311524,"signal":false,"hour_sd_pct":0.6509535929650817,"blocks5h":547,"simulations":20000,"seed":91108,"terminal5h_mean_pct":0.2632936294678051,"terminal5h_p01_pct":-3.2211440746443443,"terminal5h_p99_pct":8.03191320319776,"fixed_threshold_close_touch_pct":3.375,"worst_historical5h_pct":-3.733345282906131}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
BTC/USD C91108 completed signal and five-hour empirical paths = 6.514005432437542
Crypto majors2026-09-11 08:04
Measured Sep11 08:03UTC; fully paginated 23 days, actual calendar reindex, close returns. 20000 bootstrap draws of overlapping five-hour blocks, NOT independent paths or CPI-conditioned probabilities; cutoff07UTC bar, current fixed threshold, hourly closes only. {"first":"2026-08-19 08:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-11 07:00:00+00:00","hour_bars":552,"missing_hours":0,"close":77204.4035,"high480":82233.502538071,"required_up_pct":6.514005432437542,"signal":false,"hour_sd_pct":0.4801542825442466,"blocks5h":547,"simulations":20000,"seed":91108,"terminal5h_mean_pct":0.16253349480853607,"terminal5h_p01_pct":-2.1869102360605353,"terminal5h_p99_pct":4.7085946110445365,"fixed_threshold_close_touch_pct":0,"worst_historical5h_pct":-2.651885810850907}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
TLX 08UTC focused catalog close audit = 0
Convex events2026-09-11 08:04
RetrievedSep11 ~08:04UTC; rows OCC,close,date; closes not executable asks. ExpiriesSep21-Oct16 except BB narrowedOct2-Oct16,K7-8.5 after firstquerypagination; HOFT Sep25-Oct16. No pagination in these final queries. TLX empty in queried window does not mean no global listing. []
option_contracts venue catalog; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/
HOFT 08UTC focused catalog close audit = 20
Convex events2026-09-11 08:04
RetrievedSep11 ~08:04UTC; rows OCC,close,date; closes not executable asks. ExpiriesSep21-Oct16 except BB narrowedOct2-Oct16,K7-8.5 after firstquerypagination; HOFT Sep25-Oct16. No pagination in these final queries. TLX empty in queried window does not mean no global listing. [["HOFT261016C00002500","10.64","2026-09-08"],["HOFT261016C00012500","1.28","2026-09-03"],["HOFT261016P00012500","0.93","2026-09-03"]]
option_contracts venue catalog; https://investors.hookerfurnishings.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hooker-furnishings-host-second-quarter-earnings-call-september-3
HAIN 08UTC focused catalog close audit = 14
Convex events2026-09-11 08:04
RetrievedSep11 ~08:04UTC; rows OCC,close,date; closes not executable asks. ExpiriesSep21-Oct16 except BB narrowedOct2-Oct16,K7-8.5 after firstquerypagination; HOFT Sep25-Oct16. No pagination in these final queries. TLX empty in queried window does not mean no global listing. [["HAIN261016C00001000","0.1","2026-08-24"],["HAIN261016C00001500","0.05","2026-08-24"],["HAIN261016P00001000","0.37","2026-09-10"]]
option_contracts venue catalog; https://ir.hain.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hain-celestial-announces-fiscal-2026-fourth-quarter-and-full
PLAY 08UTC focused catalog close audit = 44
Convex events2026-09-11 08:04
RetrievedSep11 ~08:04UTC; rows OCC,close,date; closes not executable asks. ExpiriesSep21-Oct16 except BB narrowedOct2-Oct16,K7-8.5 after firstquerypagination; HOFT Sep25-Oct16. No pagination in these final queries. TLX empty in queried window does not mean no global listing. [["PLAY261016C00010000","0.4","2026-09-10"],["PLAY261016C00011000","0.3","2026-09-09"],["PLAY261016C00012000","0.3","2026-09-02"],["PLAY261016C00013000","0.15","2026-09-08"],["PLAY261016C00014000","0.15","2026-09-08"],["PLAY261016C00015000","0.1","2026-09-09"],["PLAY261016C00016000","0.35","2026-08-28"],["PLAY261016C00017000","0.12","2026-08-24"],["PLAY261016C00018000","0.15","2026-08-11"],["PLAY261016C00019000","0.2","2026-07-20"],["PLAY261016C00020000","0.05","2026-08-25"],["PLAY261016C00021000","0.35","2026-05-19"],["PLAY261016C00022000","0.25","2026-05-13"],["PLAY261016C00023000","0.05","2026-08-12"],["PLAY261016C00024000","0.15","2026-06-04"],["PLAY261016C00025000","0.05","2026-09-08"],["PLAY261016C00030000","0.28","2026-06-01"],["PLAY261016P00005000","0.2","2026-09-02"],["PLAY261016P00006000","0.2","2026-09-10"],["PLAY261016P00007000","0.5","2026-09-10"]]
option_contracts venue catalog; https://daveandbusters.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026
HITI 08UTC focused catalog close audit = 6
Convex events2026-09-11 08:04
RetrievedSep11 ~08:04UTC; rows OCC,close,date; closes not executable asks. ExpiriesSep21-Oct16 except BB narrowedOct2-Oct16,K7-8.5 after firstquerypagination; HOFT Sep25-Oct16. No pagination in these final queries. TLX empty in queried window does not mean no global listing. [["HITI261016C00002500","0.31","2026-09-09"],["HITI261016C00005000","0.05","2026-09-10"],["HITI261016C00007500","0.03","2026-09-08"],["HITI261016P00002500","0.16","2026-09-10"]]
option_contracts venue catalog; https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/
BB 08UTC focused catalog close audit = 20
Convex events2026-09-11 08:04
RetrievedSep11 ~08:04UTC; rows OCC,close,date; closes not executable asks. ExpiriesSep21-Oct16 except BB narrowedOct2-Oct16,K7-8.5 after firstquerypagination; HOFT Sep25-Oct16. No pagination in these final queries. TLX empty in queried window does not mean no global listing. [["BB261002C00007500","0.6","2026-09-10"],["BB261002C00008000","0.4","2026-09-10"],["BB261002C00008500","0.26","2026-09-10"],["BB261002P00007000","0.32","2026-09-10"],["BB261002P00007500","0.52","2026-09-10"],["BB261009C00008000","0.43","2026-09-10"],["BB261009C00008500","0.31","2026-09-10"],["BB261009P00007000","0.35","2026-09-10"],["BB261009P00007500","0.57","2026-09-10"],["BB261016C00008000","0.51","2026-09-10"],["BB261016P00007000","0.43","2026-09-10"]]
option_contracts venue catalog; https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/blackberry-to-announce-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results-on-sept-1216954
TLX 08UTC primary calendar verification
Convex events2026-09-11 08:04
Retrieved2026-09-11 ~08:04UTC. Closest source issuer, interested origin; covers upcoming event. Apr10 issuer: "PDUFA goal date of September 11, 2026." Date only. Sep11 08UTC issuer news page/search found no decision original; this is an access/search finding, not proof still pending. Resubmission and manufacturing/commercial terms matter.
https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/
HOFT 08UTC primary calendar verification
Convex events2026-09-11 08:04
Retrieved2026-09-11 ~08:04UTC. Closest source issuer, interested origin; covers upcoming event. Aug27 issuer: "September 11, 2026 at 9:00 AM Eastern Time." Earnings presentation/call; exact first release minute unverified; periodMay4-Aug2 FY27Q2.
https://investors.hookerfurnishings.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hooker-furnishings-host-second-quarter-earnings-call-september-3