Notes

AuthorityAug20: Sep4bookingdates34total=9Neo25Panamax; Sep15bookingdates32=9+23, announcedbookingruleeffectiveSep1. LaterA31Sep13allocationrebalances9Neo, notnewcapacity. Sep4authority https://pancanal.com/en/panama-canal-postpones-neopanamax-draft-adjustment/ retains48ft andpostponesOct1planned47.5ftcut. No Sep1actualtransitcount inferred. https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ADV-29-2026-Additional-Measures-to-Address-Reduced-Precipitation-in-the-Canal-Watershed.pdf

AuthorityAug28bodydate despite /04/ path. EffectiveAug30forbookingdatesSep13 onward: Neo63slots/week; customersmayobtainmultiplesame-dateandconsecutivedateslots. Dailyminimum5fullcontainer/3LPG, rankingallocation; residualrulesapply. Allocationwithin9dailyNeo, not63additional. A30Aug25 https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ADV-30-2026-Modifications-to-the-Transit-Reservation-Booking-System.pdf separately assigns cancelledspecialcompetition LNG,LPG,carcarrier,container priority; mechanismsdistinct. https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ADV-31-2026-Transit-Reservation-Booking-System-Rule-modifications.pdf

AuthoritySep10report forAugust: arrivals33.1/day,transits1029/33.19day,waters-time34.90h,in-transit11.27h; Neo298/9.61day; bookingused/availableNeo175/178=98.31%,supers472/561=84.14%,regular124/150=82.67%,auction204/227=89.87%. Regularbookingtableexcludesauctions. Sep14tentative3hEast-lanemaintenance; estimatedPanamaxcapacity25/day. Sep15tentative3hWestlane/capacity23. Sustainablewholecanal36–38/day. Exactlowercasehref recovered; prioruppercaseURLfailed. PDFmetadatatitleMay2007contradictsbodySep10'26; usebodydate. https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf

{"train":{"paths":30000,"trades_per_path":20,"sample":36,"terminal_median_pct":-1.6299669452698728,"terminal_p05_p95_pct":[-42.7303402440608,79.14454714069598],"prob_loss":0.5191666666666667,"prob_DD20pct":0.7882333333333333,"median_DD_pct":28.03024684703974},"holdout":{"paths":30000,"trades_per_path":20,"sample":20,"terminal_median_pct":-22.78221065235592,"terminal_p05_p95_pct":[-55.128395714527315,39.11376843617616],"prob_loss":0.7675666666666666,"prob_DD20pct":0.9171,"median_DD_pct":36.596438613616904}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM,SPY&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026

{"Aug_mom_pct":10.10008982420121,"Aug_daily_NTDm":16606.645161290322,"Jul_daily_NTDm":15083.225806451614,"YTD_NTDm":3386870,"Q2_NTDm":1270381,"JulAug_NTDm":982386,"Q3_low_NTDm":1427200,"Q3_high_NTDm":1465600,"Sep_needed_low_NTDm":444814,"Sep_needed_high_NTDm":483214,"Sep_needed_low_vsAug_pct":-13.595801136738883,"Sep_needed_high_vsAug_pct":-6.136680613668066,"price_Q2annualEPS_ratio":24.82772621809745,"Q3_GMmid_minusQ2_pp":-1.7000000000000028} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM,SPY&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026

{"days60":60,"TSM_SPY_beta60":2.3765505457265004,"beta60_naive_CI":[1.6187827948273743,3.1343182966256267],"TSM_SPY_corr60":0.6280805993019694,"TSM_mean_daily_pct":-0.05126367873221253,"TSM_daily_sd_pct":2.817714178010111,"TSM_min_daily_pct":-7.236829970992743,"TSM_max_daily_pct":7.3659858466456605,"correlations60":{"TSM":{"TSM":1,"LPG":-0.021760263551327305,"FRO":0.056933020503173594,"STNG":0.041552851608042035,"FTK":0.25103782768768573,"OESX":0.19459110004806146,"SPY":0.6280805993019689},"LPG":{"TSM":-0.021760263551327305,"LPG":1,"FRO":0.682346680347886,"STNG":0.6384881040608463,"FTK":-0.1990275088249006,"OESX":-0.1624035781878688,"SPY":-0.07694231522908739},"FRO":{"TSM":0.056933020503173594,"LPG":0.682346680347886,"FRO":1,"STNG":0.7789381883408967,"FTK":-0.13039078696680462,"OESX":-0.18975945799111882,"SPY":0.050005889926898466},"STNG":{"TSM":0.041552851608042035,"LPG":0.6384881040608463,"FRO":0.7789381883408967,"STNG":1,"FTK":-0.13704525149342273,"OESX":-0.2628004799596598,"SPY":0.0013835735240980884},"FTK":{"TSM":0.25103782768768573,"LPG":-0.1990275088249006,"FRO":-0.13039078696680462,"STNG":-0.13704525149342273,"FTK":1,"OESX":0.386167247529472,"SPY":0.34084019232572393},"OESX":{"TSM":0.19459110004806146,"LPG":-0.1624035781878688,"FRO":-0.18975945799111882,"STNG":-0.2628004799596598,"FTK":0.386167247529472,"OESX":1,"SPY":0.05999726452961707},"SPY":{"TSM":0.6280805993019689,"LPG":-0.07694231522908739,"FRO":0.050005889926898466,"STNG":0.0013835735240980884,"FTK":0.34084019232572393,"OESX":0.05999726452961707,"SPY":1}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM,SPY&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026

{"return":-45.66461876730713,"drawdown":46.04373845534979,"win rate":31.57894736842105,"sample":19,"completed_return":-44.40695593121955,"mean_trade_pct":-2.7831801031633097,"unfinished":1,"entry_touch_count":0,"targets":2,"mean_CI_pct":[-5.809639458764786,0.6208992735295535],"p":0.3157894736842105,"avg_win":0.07067442606657744,"avg_loss":0.0732962135384995,"halfKelly":0}; 2020Sepwarmup; train2021-24/holdout2025-Sep10'26; L20frozen,L10/40sensitivity; 2ADRstop6ADRtarget20sessions, fee5bp/slip20or75bp eachside. Entrydayexits now included; expanded2eventslots are accounting labels NOT observed intradaybars. halfKelly field is risk-stake fraction p-q/b divided2, not notional fraction; notional would divide by average loss. All metrics researchonly; daily/dividend/venue limitations. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"return":-32.666703776256874,"drawdown":37.565058372439765,"win rate":31.57894736842105,"sample":19,"completed_return":-31.484271684964217,"mean_trade_pct":-1.7078647199597352,"unfinished":1,"entry_touch_count":0,"targets":2,"mean_CI_pct":[-4.767799746799705,1.7338671835622104],"p":0.3157894736842105,"avg_win":0.08251715741670573,"avg_loss":0.06304594163789108,"halfKelly":0}; 2020Sepwarmup; train2021-24/holdout2025-Sep10'26; L20frozen,L10/40sensitivity; 2ADRstop6ADRtarget20sessions, fee5bp/slip20or75bp eachside. Entrydayexits now included; expanded2eventslots are accounting labels NOT observed intradaybars. halfKelly field is risk-stake fraction p-q/b divided2, not notional fraction; notional would divide by average loss. All metrics researchonly; daily/dividend/venue limitations. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"return":-23.918516588817358,"drawdown":49.87156219532224,"win rate":32,"sample":25,"completed_return":-20.035679307810682,"mean_trade_pct":-0.5676183097543648,"unfinished":1,"entry_touch_count":0,"targets":6,"mean_CI_pct":[-3.633418408570286,2.7212406969736738],"p":0.32,"avg_win":0.10696482632636856,"avg_loss":0.058683716944090566,"halfKelly":0}; 2020Sepwarmup; train2021-24/holdout2025-Sep10'26; L20frozen,L10/40sensitivity; 2ADRstop6ADRtarget20sessions, fee5bp/slip20or75bp eachside. Entrydayexits now included; expanded2eventslots are accounting labels NOT observed intradaybars. halfKelly field is risk-stake fraction p-q/b divided2, not notional fraction; notional would divide by average loss. All metrics researchonly; daily/dividend/venue limitations. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"return":0.7141016755856071,"drawdown":40.87862070490236,"win rate":36,"sample":25,"completed_return":5.276207295168933,"mean_trade_pct":0.5322034055985072,"unfinished":1,"entry_touch_count":0,"targets":6,"mean_CI_pct":[-2.5675075124725817,3.8574404864795078],"p":0.36,"avg_win":0.1065459541743873,"avg_loss":0.05161642101061618,"halfKelly":0.0249752986738207}; 2020Sepwarmup; train2021-24/holdout2025-Sep10'26; L20frozen,L10/40sensitivity; 2ADRstop6ADRtarget20sessions, fee5bp/slip20or75bp eachside. Entrydayexits now included; expanded2eventslots are accounting labels NOT observed intradaybars. halfKelly field is risk-stake fraction p-q/b divided2, not notional fraction; notional would divide by average loss. All metrics researchonly; daily/dividend/venue limitations. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"return":-25.57152754727562,"drawdown":38.845588231218485,"win rate":42.857142857142854,"sample":21,"completed_return":-25.57152754727553,"mean_trade_pct":-1.0917791376123178,"unfinished":0,"entry_touch_count":1,"targets":3,"mean_CI_pct":[-4.32735308768476,2.3276291658189026],"p":0.42857142857142855,"avg_win":0.07171984960985905,"avg_loss":0.07289602211560985,"halfKelly":0}; 2020Sepwarmup; train2021-24/holdout2025-Sep10'26; L20frozen,L10/40sensitivity; 2ADRstop6ADRtarget20sessions, fee5bp/slip20or75bp eachside. Entrydayexits now included; expanded2eventslots are accounting labels NOT observed intradaybars. halfKelly field is risk-stake fraction p-q/b divided2, not notional fraction; notional would divide by average loss. All metrics researchonly; daily/dividend/venue limitations. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"return":-6.230057958762882,"drawdown":29.444079552554193,"win rate":42.857142857142854,"sample":21,"completed_return":-6.230057958762769,"mean_trade_pct":0.002244834077814675,"unfinished":0,"entry_touch_count":1,"targets":3,"mean_CI_pct":[-3.2691178040601017,3.4594752176185746],"p":0.42857142857142855,"avg_win":0.08357414439128696,"avg_loss":0.06264132369710347,"halfKelly":0.00013430194793886963}; 2020Sepwarmup; train2021-24/holdout2025-Sep10'26; L20frozen,L10/40sensitivity; 2ADRstop6ADRtarget20sessions, fee5bp/slip20or75bp eachside. Entrydayexits now included; expanded2eventslots are accounting labels NOT observed intradaybars. halfKelly field is risk-stake fraction p-q/b divided2, not notional fraction; notional would divide by average loss. All metrics researchonly; daily/dividend/venue limitations. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"return":-42.56312749709269,"drawdown":56.64739954447464,"win rate":40.476190476190474,"sample":42,"completed_return":-42.563127497092566,"mean_trade_pct":-1.0548273998708326,"unfinished":0,"entry_touch_count":0,"targets":8,"mean_CI_pct":[-3.1704128477354527,1.1389061758672416],"p":0.40476190476190477,"avg_win":0.06978191154373735,"avg_loss":0.06517280016757138,"halfKelly":0}; 2020Sepwarmup; train2021-24/holdout2025-Sep10'26; L20frozen,L10/40sensitivity; 2ADRstop6ADRtarget20sessions, fee5bp/slip20or75bp eachside. Entrydayexits now included; expanded2eventslots are accounting labels NOT observed intradaybars. halfKelly field is risk-stake fraction p-q/b divided2, not notional fraction; notional would divide by average loss. All metrics researchonly; daily/dividend/venue limitations. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"return":-8.832537363475968,"drawdown":43.90172881105825,"win rate":40.476190476190474,"sample":42,"completed_return":-8.832537363475645,"mean_trade_pct":0.03960529504304023,"unfinished":0,"entry_touch_count":0,"targets":8,"mean_CI_pct":[-2.099380646470566,2.257603760983699],"p":0.40476190476190477,"avg_win":0.08161477078945863,"avg_loss":0.05483267518010879,"halfKelly":0.0024263558336278246}; 2020Sepwarmup; train2021-24/holdout2025-Sep10'26; L20frozen,L10/40sensitivity; 2ADRstop6ADRtarget20sessions, fee5bp/slip20or75bp eachside. Entrydayexits now included; expanded2eventslots are accounting labels NOT observed intradaybars. halfKelly field is risk-stake fraction p-q/b divided2, not notional fraction; notional would divide by average loss. All metrics researchonly; daily/dividend/venue limitations. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"return":-37.55232111322356,"drawdown":45.816593102344136,"win rate":35,"sample":20,"completed_return":-37.55232111322348,"mean_trade_pct":-2.0363286621652534,"unfinished":0,"entry_touch_count":0,"targets":2,"mean_CI_pct":[-5.2643982451053235,1.4056090188435393],"p":0.35,"avg_win":0.07574675790612242,"avg_loss":0.07211484905968521,"halfKelly":0}; 2020Sepwarmup; train2021-24/holdout2025-Sep10'26; L20frozen,L10/40sensitivity; 2ADRstop6ADRtarget20sessions, fee5bp/slip20or75bp eachside. Entrydayexits now included; expanded2eventslots are accounting labels NOT observed intradaybars. halfKelly field is risk-stake fraction p-q/b divided2, not notional fraction; notional would divide by average loss. All metrics researchonly; daily/dividend/venue limitations. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"return":-22.184971037158366,"drawdown":37.14362794693646,"win rate":35,"sample":20,"completed_return":-22.184971037158263,"mean_trade_pct":-0.9527523541101485,"unfinished":0,"entry_touch_count":0,"targets":2,"mean_CI_pct":[-4.216527619300163,2.52725660448563],"p":0.35,"avg_win":0.087645594325945,"avg_loss":0.06185151008489575,"halfKelly":0}; 2020Sepwarmup; train2021-24/holdout2025-Sep10'26; L20frozen,L10/40sensitivity; 2ADRstop6ADRtarget20sessions, fee5bp/slip20or75bp eachside. Entrydayexits now included; expanded2eventslots are accounting labels NOT observed intradaybars. halfKelly field is risk-stake fraction p-q/b divided2, not notional fraction; notional would divide by average loss. All metrics researchonly; daily/dividend/venue limitations. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"return":-36.75088313148679,"drawdown":46.779682699380785,"win rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":36,"completed_return":-33.52294884371083,"mean_trade_pct":-0.825925582774868,"unfinished":1,"entry_touch_count":1,"targets":8,"mean_CI_pct":[-3.326550486821542,1.8840321957996495],"p":0.3333333333333333,"avg_win":0.09544436753696935,"avg_loss":0.060111067510107696,"halfKelly":0}; 2020Sepwarmup; train2021-24/holdout2025-Sep10'26; L20frozen,L10/40sensitivity; 2ADRstop6ADRtarget20sessions, fee5bp/slip20or75bp eachside. Entrydayexits now included; expanded2eventslots are accounting labels NOT observed intradaybars. halfKelly field is risk-stake fraction p-q/b divided2, not notional fraction; notional would divide by average loss. All metrics researchonly; daily/dividend/venue limitations. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"return":-5.50328136342856,"drawdown":36.961921093863815,"win rate":38.88888888888889,"sample":36,"completed_return":-1.2228081828927762,"mean_trade_pct":0.2710389954635952,"unfinished":1,"entry_touch_count":1,"targets":8,"mean_CI_pct":[-2.2572453242047437,3.010971620882786],"p":0.3888888888888889,"avg_win":0.0929097265577703,"avg_loss":0.05468918788372226,"halfKelly":0.014586147516808479}; 2020Sepwarmup; train2021-24/holdout2025-Sep10'26; L20frozen,L10/40sensitivity; 2ADRstop6ADRtarget20sessions, fee5bp/slip20or75bp eachside. Entrydayexits now included; expanded2eventslots are accounting labels NOT observed intradaybars. halfKelly field is risk-stake fraction p-q/b divided2, not notional fraction; notional would divide by average loss. All metrics researchonly; daily/dividend/venue limitations. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Across9selectednames momentum20 vs SMA20distance=0.5920966887199922;70completedclose returns correlations {"HITI":{"HITI":1,"HAIN":0.12904296151226813,"PLAY":-0.03431772896036278,"TLX":0.14647074935247534},"HAIN":{"HITI":0.12904296151226813,"HAIN":1,"PLAY":0.09618300475650539,"TLX":-0.04129165037976512},"PLAY":{"HITI":-0.03431772896036278,"HAIN":0.09618300475650539,"PLAY":1,"TLX":0.07013078589778646},"TLX":{"HITI":0.14647074935247534,"HAIN":-0.04129165037976512,"PLAY":0.07013078589778646,"TLX":1}}; tinyselectedcrosssection, currentregime, notindependentfactors orbinary-taildiversification. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"TLX","source_days":71,"paths":50000,"stop_pct":18.294,"target_pct":0,"both_pct":0,"net_mean_pct":-0.6543519968948777,"net_p05_pct":-2.6381139773955398,"net_p95_pct":1.7427789096478907,"loss_pct":66.366,"quarter_fund_mean_pnl":-0.08038714281853572,"full_fund_50pct_gap_loss":24.57,"full_fund_50pct_gap_account_pct":2.8872254668092454} Seed91108; resample71whole daily H/L/C ratios toO at Sep10referenceentry;1ADRstop/3ADRtarget, stopfirstifboth, closeelse,30bp/side. Noentrygap/overnight/15min/limit/earlyFDAmodel; noeventconditionededge. 50%gap separatelyASSUMEDstress notprobability. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

{"symbol":"HITI","source_days":71,"paths":50000,"stop_pct":14.14,"target_pct":0,"both_pct":0,"net_mean_pct":-0.7843954436526607,"net_p05_pct":-3.6451033617896145,"net_p95_pct":3.0091178078667014,"loss_pct":67.476,"quarter_fund_mean_pnl":-0.09636298025272937,"full_fund_50pct_gap_loss":24.57,"full_fund_50pct_gap_account_pct":2.8872254668092454} Seed91108; resample71whole daily H/L/C ratios toO at Sep10referenceentry;1ADRstop/3ADRtarget, stopfirstifboth, closeelse,30bp/side. Noentrygap/overnight/15min/limit/earlyFDAmodel; noeventconditionededge. 50%gap separatelyASSUMEDstress notprobability. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all