Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
HOFT SEP1200 cash conversion bridge = 22.9
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 00:03
Sep11issuer firsthalfFY27: OCF24m-capex1.1m=22.9mFCF; recoverycash7.9m and inventory48.7to43.4m release5.3m not perpetual earnings. Cash18.7m vs1.1mFYend; no termloan/creditfacilitybalance, borrowingavailability51.8m not ownedcash. Principal3.6m/dividends2.5m/repurchases1.3m. Ex-recoverycashFCF15m is simple descriptive bridge before other workingcapital; no steady-state forecast. https://investors.hookerfurnishings.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hooker-furnishings-reports-profitable-quarter-and-first-half
HOFT SEP1200 reported earnings versus tariff recovery = 1.3
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 00:03
Sep11issuer, Q2FY27endedAug2: continuing operatingincome1.3m; tariff4.3m COGSbenefit less.5m customercredits=>net3.8m operatingbenefit, plus.2m interest separately. Simple normalizedOI1.3-3.8=-2.5m, not issuer adjusted metric. Revenue-8.7%Q2;backlog+6.2%YoY/+8.4%QoQ. Recoverycash7.9m;1.8mstillinventory,1m discontinued netpretax; no materialadditionalrecoveries expected. Rounded values don'tfullyreconcile7.9m. https://investors.hookerfurnishings.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hooker-furnishings-reports-profitable-quarter-and-first-half
TLX SEP1200 bounded Pixclara status search
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 00:03
As checkedSep12~00:04UTC issuer news page latest visibleGa68access article, no retrievedSep11Pixclara decision. April10original https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ assignsSep11 dateonly. Search absence is not proof of pending/noFDAaction. Outcome unknown; no run-up entry after dated decision day. https://telixpharma.com/news-views/
SRRK SEP1200 issuer early approval and commercial scope = 19
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 00:03
Sep11 2026 issuer release, RSS timestamp18:25EDT=22:25UTC;19calendar days before priorSep30PDUFA. ISEMBYLD approved age>=2 on SMN2-targeted treatment. Shipping in coming days is forecast, not receipts; priority review voucher awarded, no monetization price provided. Investor callSep14 08ET=12UTC. Full original fetchedHTTP200; FDA label needs separate retrieval. Main efficacy populationage2–12 N103,10mg/kg nominal2.2HFMSE benefit p.0121;>=3point responders34.2vs13.5%;fractures9vs2%. Issuer promotional source, one origin; do not infer stock odds from clinical p-values. https://scholarrock.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-announces-fda-approval-isembyldtm-apitegromab-mstn
PRE91108 compact collector final local receipt and explicit coverage gaps = 5
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:20
Final local START08:18:36.189597 END08:18:37.464612UTC,5panels,orders0. FTK/AVAV/TLX200; TXNM/KR403 explicitly gap. KR two alternative newsroompaths404; do notassumenonews. Nine30minruns scheduled withhard12:25UTCcutoff,timeout35s. SchedulingacceptanceisnotremoteEND; next12:30monitor281mustauditactualnotes. Old219receipt07:30verified,15/85retained. Hashchangedynamic/cosmetic,notsemanticnewsproof. research/collector.py ; issuer URLs in script
PRE91108 actual scheduled collector 224 completion = 11
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:16
{"id":224,"lastRunAt":"2026-09-11T08:15:37.071Z","lastExitCode":0,"nextRunAt":"2026-09-11T16:15:37.071Z","chars":1970,"panels":11,"errors":[],"end":"END actual original completed; panels=11 rawsha=9777ad7d576e91c62ab440fd5414d66183c71df40d3668b04d8bf51e3649e88c previews only; read originals before action"} runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst
PRE91108 actual scheduled collector 223 completion = 7
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:16
{"id":223,"lastRunAt":"2026-09-11T08:15:37.071Z","lastExitCode":0,"nextRunAt":"2026-09-11T10:15:37.071Z","chars":1473,"panels":7,"errors":[],"end":"END actual original completed; panels=7 rawsha=0544d08f9ce5a1b181e8563a95968dc8c23a75ee2c6ad9d4d2a3d6a376d53a81 previews only; read originals before action"} runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst
AVAV PRE91108 unconditional 5-session bootstrap risk historical_validation = 0.4696621589496277
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
{"sample":{"daily_returns":1255,"overlapping5day_blocks":1251,"simulated_paths":10000,"PnL_1share_p5_median_p95":[-14.19582650368268,0.15414785536563613,19.385670270451158],"mean_PnL":0.4696621589496277,"loss_probability":0.4951,"stop_probability":0.2151,"target_probability":0.0316,"meanwin_pct":5.7113459410198715,"meanloss_pct":5.180391664298729,"win_loss":1.1024930760313503,"binary_half_Kelly_risk_proxy":0.0279134424634149,"cashconstrained_half_Kelly":0.29433061572816666,"loss_over_1ADR_probability":0.2187,"loss_over_3ADR_probability":0.0048,"p95_loss_account_pct":1.6681543265705447,"mean_exit_session":4.5471},"parameters":{"mark":147.065,"assumed_entry_fill":147.2855975,"cost":147.30032605975,"stop":138.5265125,"target":173.5628525,"risk":8.759085,"seed":9110800,"live_allocation":0,"limitations":"Unconditional overlapping historical five-day blocks, not conditional EAR edge, not 10000 independent events, not 15min venue execution; daily-close sample exits can overshoot. No news-date filter, +2R management or calibrated forecast. One-share stress diagnostic, not proposed order; full universe and tails omitted. Fixed windows before sampling; 2026 excluded."}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/risk_study.py
AVAV PRE91108 unconditional 5-session bootstrap risk train = 0.43433099903177197
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
{"sample":{"daily_returns":1258,"overlapping5day_blocks":1254,"simulated_paths":10000,"PnL_1share_p5_median_p95":[-12.760873684905476,0.1270444763461569,16.151624233179263],"mean_PnL":0.43433099903177197,"loss_probability":0.4901,"stop_probability":0.1252,"target_probability":0.0209,"meanwin_pct":4.449327431290994,"meanloss_pct":4.027445834403602,"win_loss":1.104751650111234,"binary_half_Kelly_risk_proxy":0.033135441066934224,"cashconstrained_half_Kelly":0.4277406279728223,"loss_over_1ADR_probability":0.1265,"loss_over_3ADR_probability":0,"p95_loss_account_pct":1.4995327424418003,"mean_exit_session":4.733},"parameters":{"mark":147.065,"assumed_entry_fill":147.2855975,"cost":147.30032605975,"stop":138.5265125,"target":173.5628525,"risk":8.759085,"seed":9110800,"live_allocation":0,"limitations":"Unconditional overlapping historical five-day blocks, not conditional EAR edge, not 10000 independent events, not 15min venue execution; daily-close sample exits can overshoot. No news-date filter, +2R management or calibrated forecast. One-share stress diagnostic, not proposed order; full universe and tails omitted. Fixed windows before sampling; 2026 excluded."}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/risk_study.py
PRE91108 own ledger half-Kelly audit = -1.0460528968119984
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
{"N":3,"win_rate_pct":33.33333333333333,"mean_return_pct":-0.8609740733728407,"mean_win_pct":7.939941307427634,"mean_loss_pct":5.261431763773078,"realized_PnL_USD":-1.0460528968119984,"raw_half_Kelly_risk_proxy":-0.0542179116971192,"clipped_half_Kelly":0}; All3forcedoperatorliquidationsSep4, notnatural4–6weekexits. Cannotestimateactualslippagewithoutdecisionquotes orstop/targethitrate. Noopen/pending percontext. query_trades(fund=quant)
PRE91108 cross-asset return correlations = 925
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
{"SPY":{"SPY":1,"EFA":0.7591198368856802,"EEM":0.6704914576653278,"TLT":0.119936053322961,"GLD":0.15267835728211407},"EFA":{"SPY":0.7591198368856802,"EFA":1,"EEM":0.7863240446416644,"TLT":0.22112137108943597,"GLD":0.3508641532226154},"EEM":{"SPY":0.6704914576653278,"EFA":0.7863240446416644,"EEM":1,"TLT":0.1554362466102038,"GLD":0.38281142715701333},"TLT":{"SPY":0.119936053322961,"EFA":0.22112137108943597,"EEM":0.1554362466102038,"TLT":1,"GLD":0.17874017634543926},"GLD":{"SPY":0.15267835728211407,"EFA":0.3508641532226154,"EEM":0.38281142715701333,"TLT":0.17874017634543926,"GLD":1}};925common dailyreturns Jan2023–Sep10 2026. CurrentETFproxies,noindependentcausalproof; EFA/EEM equityexposurecorrelated,notfiveindependentbets. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
GLD PRE91108 broad liquid ETF risk and affordability panel = 18.649344429144477
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
{"bars":2687,"close":396.36,"252session_return_pct":18.649344429144477,"RV20_pct":28.263810605186755,"daily_range_over_20pct_count":0,"whole_shares_for187_22":0}; RetrievedSep11, dates2016–Sep10 2026, nohistorybefore2016returned despite2010request. Close-derivedmetrics unaffected mechanically by SPYdaily-low anomaly; not proof ofdataeligibilityorstrategyedge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
TLT PRE91108 broad liquid ETF risk and affordability panel = -5.321143928738858
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
{"bars":2687,"close":80.78,"252session_return_pct":-5.321143928738858,"RV20_pct":10.903027184382665,"daily_range_over_20pct_count":0,"whole_shares_for187_22":2}; RetrievedSep11, dates2016–Sep10 2026, nohistorybefore2016returned despite2010request. Close-derivedmetrics unaffected mechanically by SPYdaily-low anomaly; not proof ofdataeligibilityorstrategyedge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EEM PRE91108 broad liquid ETF risk and affordability panel = 33.43955387373032
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
{"bars":2687,"close":67,"252session_return_pct":33.43955387373032,"RV20_pct":19.12744178908615,"daily_range_over_20pct_count":0,"whole_shares_for187_22":2}; RetrievedSep11, dates2016–Sep10 2026, nohistorybefore2016returned despite2010request. Close-derivedmetrics unaffected mechanically by SPYdaily-low anomaly; not proof ofdataeligibilityorstrategyedge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EFA PRE91108 broad liquid ETF risk and affordability panel = 18.267293485560778
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
{"bars":2687,"close":105.66,"252session_return_pct":18.267293485560778,"RV20_pct":9.84770115845476,"daily_range_over_20pct_count":0,"whole_shares_for187_22":1}; RetrievedSep11, dates2016–Sep10 2026, nohistorybefore2016returned despite2010request. Close-derivedmetrics unaffected mechanically by SPYdaily-low anomaly; not proof ofdataeligibilityorstrategyedge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY PRE91108 broad liquid ETF risk and affordability panel = 17.827324035636003
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
{"bars":2687,"close":757.83,"252session_return_pct":17.827324035636003,"RV20_pct":8.536479436350973,"daily_range_over_20pct_count":1,"whole_shares_for187_22":0}; RetrievedSep11, dates2016–Sep10 2026, nohistorybefore2016returned despite2010request. Close-derivedmetrics unaffected mechanically by SPYdaily-low anomaly; not proof ofdataeligibilityorstrategyedge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
ADBE PRE91108 September10 close and risk context = 248.83
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
{"N":50,"date":"2026-09-10","close":248.83,"prior_close":254.86,"day_pct":-2.3660048654163046,"20session_pct":-3.833816425120773,"RV20_pct":48.85017922551697,"prior20ADR":9.169129999999992,"ADV20_USD":1268578302.5955002,"whole_shares_affordable":0}; ComputedSep11 on50SIP/all dailybars Jul1–Sep10. Descriptive historicalprices, not executablequotes. prior20ADR excludesSep10 unless field explicitly forSep11. AVAV correctfrozenEAR usesSep4->10; no liveposition. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
TXNM PRE91108 September10 close and risk context = 57.86
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
{"N":50,"date":"2026-09-10","close":57.86,"prior_close":57.9,"day_pct":-0.0690846286701241,"20session_pct":0.9244723530437815,"RV20_pct":4.1961001654799315,"prior20ADR":0.2699999999999996,"ADV20_USD":68686750.926,"whole_shares_affordable":3}; ComputedSep11 on50SIP/all dailybars Jul1–Sep10. Descriptive historicalprices, not executablequotes. prior20ADR excludesSep10 unless field explicitly forSep11. AVAV correctfrozenEAR usesSep4->10; no liveposition. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY PRE91108 September10 close and risk context = 757.83
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
{"N":50,"date":"2026-09-10","close":757.83,"prior_close":762.4,"day_pct":-0.5994228751311614,"20session_pct":-1.8977591942937688,"RV20_pct":8.536479436350973,"prior20ADR":4.372059999999993,"ADV20_USD":28341302182.2235,"whole_shares_affordable":0}; ComputedSep11 on50SIP/all dailybars Jul1–Sep10. Descriptive historicalprices, not executablequotes. prior20ADR excludesSep10 unless field explicitly forSep11. AVAV correctfrozenEAR usesSep4->10; no liveposition. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
ORCL PRE91108 September10 close and risk context = 152.94
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
{"N":50,"date":"2026-09-10","close":152.94,"prior_close":161.63,"day_pct":-5.3764771391449635,"20session_pct":-0.2218162839248472,"RV20_pct":48.87975391754114,"prior20ADR":5.868495,"ADV20_USD":3621428842.8145,"whole_shares_affordable":1}; ComputedSep11 on50SIP/all dailybars Jul1–Sep10. Descriptive historicalprices, not executablequotes. prior20ADR excludesSep10 unless field explicitly forSep11. AVAV correctfrozenEAR usesSep4->10; no liveposition. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
FTK PRE91108 September10 close and risk context = 27.42
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
{"N":50,"date":"2026-09-10","close":27.42,"prior_close":27.88,"day_pct":-1.6499282639885093,"20session_pct":-26.230831315577074,"RV20_pct":102.7444578299926,"prior20ADR":2.1877250000000013,"ADV20_USD":19000953.600499995,"whole_shares_affordable":6}; ComputedSep11 on50SIP/all dailybars Jul1–Sep10. Descriptive historicalprices, not executablequotes. prior20ADR excludesSep10 unless field explicitly forSep11. AVAV correctfrozenEAR usesSep4->10; no liveposition. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AVAV PRE91108 September10 close and risk context = 147.065
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
{"N":50,"date":"2026-09-10","close":147.065,"prior_close":140.8,"day_pct":4.449573863636358,"20session_pct":-24.118982508642482,"RV20_pct":55.32377210836666,"prior20ADR":8.204085000000001,"ADV20_USD":283592247.92574996,"whole_shares_affordable":1,"illustrative_1share_1ADR_loss_USD":8.759085,"illustrative_1share_3ADR_gap_equity_pct":3.087845333082645,"correct_frozen_EAR_pp":3.274345998731776,"prior20ADR_for_Sep11":8.759085000000002}; ComputedSep11 on50SIP/all dailybars Jul1–Sep10. Descriptive historicalprices, not executablequotes. prior20ADR excludesSep10 unless field explicitly forSep11. AVAV correctfrozenEAR usesSep4->10; no liveposition. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY PRE91108 Michigan September preliminary exact release time and frozen August baseline = 1400
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:14
Sep11~08:14UTC mainpage explicitly gives nextreleaseSep11 10amET=14UTC, fills hourgap25147. Augustfinalsentiment51.7,currentconditions51.9,expectations51.5; yearaheadinflation4.0%,longrun3.3%. InterviewperiodJul28–Aug24, nottoday. CompareactualSeptdataandmethodology, noinventedconsensus orautomaticmacroentry. https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
TSM R91108 CLI full-sample diagnostic = -35.83409206190321
Supply chain2026-09-11 08:14
Sep11 CLI breakout20 days2000 stop8 target24: 1372bars/103trades,return−35.834092%,DD36.692012%,wins29.126214%,mean−.398379%,buyhold265.528719%. Source inspection confirmsIEX/ownsignalexit/nochronologicalholdout; descriptive only, distinct from costedSIP2709. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&feed=iex
SPY PRE91108 expanded next-two-session calendar: Michigan and Fed releases
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:13
RetrievedSep11~08:11UTC. Current2026UMichdatesPDFconfirmsSep11preliminary,Sep25final; thisPDFdoesnotgivehour. BoardcalendarSep11Z.1 at12ET=16UTC; H.8/H.15at16:15ET=20:15UTC; commercialpaper13ET=17UTC. Sep14H.10/H.15at16:15ET=20:15UTC andcommercialpaper13ET. NoSep11/14Boardspeechlisted; notexhaustive regionalFedcalendar. FOMC15–16outside nexttwosessions. EarlysearchUMichdoc75443hadwrong-yeartext; authoritativecurrentlink79628supersedes. https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=79628 ; https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm
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