Notes

{"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","bars":1620,"close":229.61,"prior20":292.65,"sma50":272.2414,"adr20":8.203905000000002,"return1d_pct":0.745908472642709,"vol60_pct":37.99805746112768,"signal":false,"reference_stop":213.20219,"reference_target":278.83343,"maxwhole":0} Source retrievedSep12 using endSep11T23:40Z.2ADRstop/6ADRtarget illustrative, not orders; dailyprice not executablequote. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Sep1 issuer confirms 'after the market closes on September 14, 2026'; reverifiedSep12 via gcs-web after iraliasfailed. Sep11S8.14 Oct16C10.35/P7.45 delayedtrades;+ .05costreserve assumed. Frozen12issuerdatedreturns [{"K":10,"p":0.35,"n":12,"hurdle":27.764127764127757,"hits":0},{"K":7,"p":0.45,"n":12,"hurdle":20.147420147420153,"hits":0}]. Noholdthroughgate; Sep11default exit windowpassedflat. This midnightreviewdidnotoccurat15:40ET. https://daveandbusters.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars

[{"entry":35,"exit":45,"period":"train","ret":2.1908765719181473,"dd":-24.727400007446764,"n":10,"win":60},{"entry":35,"exit":45,"period":"holdout_reused","ret":12.558574526791347,"dd":-8.622787404987065,"n":4,"win":75},{"entry":35,"exit":50,"period":"train","ret":46.36174639935934,"dd":-25.050458376513507,"n":10,"win":70},{"entry":35,"exit":50,"period":"holdout_reused","ret":1.6251841481479345,"dd":-14.90545050055616,"n":3,"win":66.66666666666666},{"entry":35,"exit":55,"period":"train","ret":-4.042104145380347,"dd":-39.478206221928346,"n":7,"win":57.14285714285714},{"entry":35,"exit":55,"period":"holdout_reused","ret":-10.449439161149826,"dd":-16.12903225806449,"n":2,"win":0}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; vectorbt

[{"entry":30,"exit":45,"period":"train","ret":27.138467765180064,"dd":-11.406541117940572,"n":6,"win":66.66666666666666},{"entry":30,"exit":45,"period":"holdout_reused","ret":-3.2582522478786133,"dd":-6.758783371754584,"n":1,"win":0},{"entry":30,"exit":50,"period":"train","ret":49.771614710900344,"dd":-11.406541117940572,"n":6,"win":83.33333333333334},{"entry":30,"exit":50,"period":"holdout_reused","ret":-1.9982294841027963,"dd":-6.758783371754584,"n":1,"win":0},{"entry":30,"exit":55,"period":"train","ret":17.101736721667,"dd":-28.611111111111143,"n":4,"win":75},{"entry":30,"exit":55,"period":"holdout_reused","ret":-2.558239601336493,"dd":-11.533183018381587,"n":1,"win":0}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; vectorbt

[{"entry":25,"exit":45,"period":"train","ret":11.695061852744107,"dd":-11.406541117940572,"n":2,"win":50},{"entry":25,"exit":45,"period":"holdout_reused","ret":1.0097660353031983,"dd":-5.681818181818199,"n":1,"win":100},{"entry":25,"exit":50,"period":"train","ret":14.522807128723503,"dd":-11.406541117940572,"n":2,"win":50},{"entry":25,"exit":50,"period":"holdout_reused","ret":2.325378038657368,"dd":-5.681818181818199,"n":1,"win":100},{"entry":25,"exit":55,"period":"train","ret":28.24429644992058,"dd":-11.406541117940572,"n":2,"win":100},{"entry":25,"exit":55,"period":"holdout_reused","ret":1.740661592722188,"dd":-11.267605633802791,"n":1,"win":100}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; vectorbt

July1 issuer, retrievedSep12, FYendedMay31. Organic sales-2%, adjustedoperatingprofit2.8bn/down16%constantcurrency; Q4organicflat includes1point favorabletradeexpense timing; reportedQ4sales+1% includes7point extraweek/1FX/-7netportfolio. Do not extrapolate53rdweek asrecurringvolume. Countercase Q4adjustedEPS.95 +27%constantcurrency andcostsavingsplan3bnby2030. Interested issuer original, forecasts not achievedsavings. https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/General-Mills-Reports-Fiscal-2026-Fourth-quarter-Adjusted-Results-in-Line-with-Company-Expectations/default.aspx

[{"sample":"all","block":1,"paths":20000,"terminal_median":29.059532618500526,"loss_probability_pct":90.69500000000001,"median_drawdown_pct":83.9348665435622,"p05":8.518357154455941},{"sample":"all","block":3,"paths":20000,"terminal_median":28.710000000000008,"loss_probability_pct":87.325,"median_drawdown_pct":83.9348665435622,"p05":16.670739030023157},{"sample":"first8","block":1,"paths":20000,"terminal_median":29.00411764705892,"loss_probability_pct":95.365,"median_drawdown_pct":83.9348665435622,"p05":4.088616123976635},{"sample":"first8","block":3,"paths":20000,"terminal_median":28.710000000000008,"loss_probability_pct":91.33,"median_drawdown_pct":83.9348665435622,"p05":16.670739030023157},{"sample":"last4_reused","block":1,"paths":20000,"terminal_median":45.724849381886855,"loss_probability_pct":71.47,"median_drawdown_pct":75.39088876617026,"p05":9.358715314837523},{"sample":"last4_reused","block":3,"paths":20000,"terminal_median":34.53949094744996,"loss_probability_pct":72.94500000000001,"median_drawdown_pct":83.05094187142026,"p05":18.743994334277886}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; local NumPy/vectorbt

Recomputed Python from3closedlots: RARE-45.8600619%, -29.804454USD, -6.440348R versusplannedtarget1.71739R; IONS-2.842420%, -1.847289USD, target1.403846R; MIRM-.439321%, -.285515USD, target1.081999R. 0wins/3, meanreturn-16.380601%;2operatorliquidationscensorstrategyexits. Allfractional. Stop24vsRAREfill13.98976 isshortfall10.01024/share, notmeasuredarrivalquoteslippage. No open/pending returned. Current49.14fund50%gap scenario24.57USD=2.887225%equity;totalloss5.774451%. runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst

Quartr-hosted transcript ofSep9issuerconference, speakerclaims not auditedcontracts/audioverified: Plant says major aerospaceLTAs define share beyond decade, IGTmultiyearpricing/share incloneexclusive; GEamongcustomersrequestingmorecapacity. Expansionrequests distinct from acceptedfirmcashorders. Contradicts instantdisplacement assumption; doesnotrefute longer-runcompetitivepressure. https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/hwm/transcripts/740198-jefferies-global-industrials-conference-2026/

Sep8issuer definitiveagreement, notclosed:11.75bn purchase,7bncash/remaindernewdebt,26x2027EBITDA without/18xwithsynergies; expectedH2'27close subjectconditions. Existingcustomer15+yrs. Buyer/seller promotional original; scarcity capture could migrate toOEM but order diversion not disclosed. https://www.geaerospace.com/news/press-releases/ge-aerospace-acquire-consolidated-precision-products-cpp-expanding-mission-critical

Reused2026Jan1–Sep11 00UTC holdout,notrerun/newindependentsample. HourlyETHreturn17.2404388093%,DD19.8301966136%,win4/6,avgwin5.848427%/avgloss3.072019%;train33.250114%N19,stress15.841958%. Daily20HIGH comparator−17.632466%N5win20%,DD27.353641%;15min22.171852%N6 from2469. FractionalreturnKelly f=(p*w−q*l)/(w*l)=16.001716,half8.000858; implies leverage unavailable. Clipnotionalto min235.86fund,212.7475venue,25.5297/.07246072risk=>212.7475;quarter53.186875with3.853959nominalstoprisk usingpastentry. These are modelceilings,notrecommendedsize;N6CIcross0/currententryabsent=>actual0. Prior29.4825 remainsonlylegacyillustration,notmathematicalcurrentquartercap. query_research crypto analyses2605/2606/2469 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"bars":731,"return":80.47401950371302,"drawdown":18.795394376588398,"win_rate":53.125,"N":32,"avgTrade":2.048577683761218,"buyhold":-24.648990549038363}. RunSep12~00:02UTC:--strategybreakout --lookback20 --days730. 731bars mayinclude currentpartialday; samecloseentry,closechannel,zeroexplicitfees/slippage,notimeholdout; notfrozenHIGHrule ordeploymentedge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; /app/agent/dist/backtest.js

{"bars":731,"return":28.85081306518218,"drawdown":24.943256404302115,"win_rate":21.052631578947366,"N":38,"avgTrade":0.8454927777136966,"buyhold":6.441284828836924}. RunSep12~00:02UTC:--strategybreakout --lookback20 --days730. 731bars mayinclude currentpartialday; samecloseentry,closechannel,zeroexplicitfees/slippage,notimeholdout; notfrozenHIGHrule ordeploymentedge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; /app/agent/dist/backtest.js

{"bars":731,"return":25.66649251667488,"drawdown":13.536723623989975,"win_rate":32.6530612244898,"N":49,"avgTrade":0.5336831560087856,"buyhold":32.888403395690034}. RunSep12~00:02UTC:--strategybreakout --lookback20 --days730. 731bars mayinclude currentpartialday; samecloseentry,closechannel,zeroexplicitfees/slippage,notimeholdout; notfrozenHIGHrule ordeploymentedge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; /app/agent/dist/backtest.js

Reconstruct Sep11 14UTC rawopen2629.65,10bpslipentry2632.27965,25bpcreditedETH fee. KnownSep10ATR14=88.0134936902,2ATRstop2456.25266262,net3Rtarget3223.79684108 (exit10bpslip/25bpfee). 40completed15minbars through23:45: maxhigh2664.8535,minlow2506.24,0sampledstop/targethits,+2Rnotreached; current−.660204R. vectorbtinit_cash1.0 effectiveentryprice=fill/.9975, explicitqty,cashfeeencoding; markedreturn−4.653905788%,hypotheticalexitnet−4.987378753%,vbtcloseDD4.079390856%,N1open/N0closed,winrateundefined,wealthreconcile0. Priorillustrative29.4825USDwouldmark−1.372088USD/netstoprisk2.136323USD. This was constructed after outcome,notprospectivetrade/newOOS orcompleteexitpolicybacktest;20daytimeoutOct1 14UTC. Actualposition0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

BLS original Sep11 08:30ET forAug2026:headline+.4%MoMSA/+3.4%YoYNSA;core+.3%MoM/+2.4%YoY;energy+2.1%MoM,gasoline+3.9%,food+.1%,shelter+.3%. Julyheadline+.1/core+.2. No preregistered consensus, so not measured surprise; not proof of a specific supplier's margin or cause of Sep11 stock move. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

FetchedHTTP200, parsed13pagesSept12~00:06UTC. Labelinitialapproval2026, age>=2onSMN2targetedtherapy;10mg/kg IVevery4weeks,60–120minuteinfusion; warningfractures, no listedcontraindications. This is issuer-hostedPI, FDAapprovalletter not separately retrieved; doesnotestablishallmanufacturingsitesapproved. https://www.scholarrock.com/documents/label/us/ISEMBYLD_PI.pdf

Sep11agency: AugustSAapplications531728,-7.8%MoM. Projectedwithin4quarterformations28501,-4.6%; futurepayrollfirms fromAugustapplicationcohort, NOTactualAugustbirths. Jan2026restated2022NAICSandremovedinternetsalesfromHBA/CBA perhttps://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/index.html . Administrativeapplicationsarenotindependentdemandorders. https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/current/index.html

BLS Sep11 08:30ET release forAug2026: headline+.4%MoMSAvsJuly+.1%;3.4%YoYNSA. Core+.3%MoMvs+.2%;2.4%YoYvs2.5%. Gasoline+3.9%MoM,energy+2.1%,shelter+.3%,food+.1%. Fastermonthandlowercoreannualarenotcontradiction; differentperiod/base. No preregistered consensus, so no claimed surprise or causalprice attribution. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

One closed trade:Sep3 entry81614.8/exit81548.7,qty.001681857,notional137.2644226836,stop73440,target97900,horizon3–4weeks,held~47m56s then operatorliquidation. Grossprice−.08099%,cashPnl~−.11117;0wins/N1,censoredexit andnoactualfee/arrivalquote ledger => avgwin,slippage,stop/targethit rates notestimable. Old grossRR~1.99 below current3R mandate; not evidence of stopped thesis. All current holdings/orders absent per query andcontext; no lessonsawaiting. query_trades fund=crypto trade10