Notes

32996 observations, newest first

MG R92104 execution and minimum-size thresholds = 29.9778

Convex tail2026-09-21 04:10

Context equity999.26/fund100 deployed0;query_tradesempty. DerivedOctP20spread75%,NovP20spread18.518519%;Novexpiry24dayspastOct27;Octexpiry11daysbefore. PositiveEV full14USDall-in targetcase requires8.224299% and halfKelly sufficientfor14requires10.795922%. These are thresholds not liveodds. ProposedOctstop.06>indicativebid.03; stoptriggerbasisunverified. NovemberC22.5cost43>cap. Jobreceipts276/277/279/280/283 allEND/exit0, remaining24/24/90/92/92;notindependentpriceupdates. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/MG?feed=indicative

DSX R92104 current quote provenance and sizes = 0.13

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:10

RetrievedSep21: Sep18 19:59:58.976328497Z putbid.08size64/ask.13size15,spread38.4615%; impliedVol.5517 atretrieval, not stableovernighttrade. Putdailytradebarclose.10/volume35,latestTrade.12 vsminuteBar.10 differentderivedvalues; these are not fills. Call.18/.28,size7/102,spread35.7143%,IV.3977. OIput247/call408asSep17. Premia13/28;puthurdle7.71704%vsmedian13.78313%,P803.35638x. Equity999.26 currentpremiumcap49.963. Refreshactualquote beforeanyorder. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative; option_contracts

DSX R92104 exact model IVx1.2 spread0.025 = -1.040434661188546

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:08

{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.065,"mean":-1.040434661188546,"wins":2,"stops":7,"targets":2,"pnl":[42.16686461739789,-15,-11.143579321246417,-8.99985516092377,-10.030820454805761,25.650051780082862,-10.37473564570089,-9.556899841870898,-12.074937923629932]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

DSX R92104 exact model IVx1.2 spread0.01 = 3.9475412649250217

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:08

{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.065,"mean":3.9475412649250217,"wins":3,"stops":6,"targets":3,"pnl":[43.6668646173979,-14.287291188932308,-9.643579321246419,25.60497258964808,-8.530820454805763,27.150051780082865,-8.874735645700891,-8.982653068488343,-10.574937923629932]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

DSX R92104 exact model IVx1.2 spread0 = 4.29475484695801

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:08

{"iv_mult":1.2,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.065,"mean":4.29475484695801,"wins":3,"stops":6,"targets":3,"pnl":[44.6668646173979,-13.287291188932308,-8.643579321246417,26.60497258964808,-9.400476922472276,28.150051780082865,-10.956117994273527,-8.906692013952298,-9.574937923629932]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

DSX R92104 exact model IVx1 spread0.025 = -7.0909198439987335

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:08

{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.065,"mean":-7.0909198439987335,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1,"pnl":[-8.617140301790078,-15,-10.095866520555326,-9.392648626188144,-12.490893465239202,25.22408817929034,-10.849991989385206,-8.538676149479492,-14.057149722641489]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

DSX R92104 exact model IVx1 spread0.01 = -6.596590613642383

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:08

{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.065,"mean":-6.596590613642383,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1,"pnl":[-9.198107794304043,-15,-8.595866520555326,-10.051049126564402,-10.990893465239203,26.72408817929034,-9.349991989385208,-10.350345083382116,-12.55714972264149]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

DSX R92104 exact model IVx1 spread0 = -0.3000661317640445

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:08

{"iv_mult":1,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.065,"mean":-0.3000661317640445,"wins":2,"stops":7,"targets":2,"pnl":[44.377533901652235,-14.25487252729264,-10.475352757551546,-9.0510491265644,-9.990893465239202,27.72408817929034,-10.12255458414758,-9.350345083382114,-11.557149722641489]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

DSX R92104 exact model IVx0.8 spread0.025 = -7.984566526749824

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:08

{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0.025,"stop":0.065,"mean":-7.984566526749824,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1,"pnl":[-11.400765650281127,-15,-10.390031722318733,-12.094185592969671,-14.669018450720634,25.01282011864137,-13.268123641552316,-11.024004960071316,-9.027788841475989]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

DSX R92104 exact model IVx0.8 spread0.01 = -6.808829987610821

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:08

{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0.01,"stop":0.065,"mean":-6.808829987610821,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1,"pnl":[-9.900765650281127,-15,-8.890031722318735,-10.594185592969673,-13.169018450720635,26.51282011864137,-11.768123641552318,-9.524004960071318,-8.946159989224954]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

DSX R92104 exact model IVx0.8 spread0 = -6.714327559414181

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:08

{"iv_mult":0.8,"halfspread":0,"stop":0.065,"mean":-6.714327559414181,"wins":1,"stops":8,"targets":1,"pnl":[-8.900765650281127,-14.800251978126648,-9.959368936848666,-9.594185592969671,-12.169018450720635,27.51282011864137,-10.768123641552316,-8.524004960071316,-13.226048942798611]}; Equal weight N9 paths, European constant IV49.3526% baseline,25calendar days/20checks,entry.13,stop.065,target.39,2USDfriction. Model sensitivity not actual option history or calibrated odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative

DSX R92104 Astarte net daily hire increment = 4317.5

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:08

Issuer Sep16:17,000/day less4.75% vs12,500less5%; expectedstartSep20 2026,minimumSep1 2027,maxNov15 2027;5.81mexpectedgrossminimum revenue;36vessels. Calculatednewnet16192.5/old11875/difference4317.5 perday;365day illustration1.5758875m beforeoffhire/costs,notactualcontractreceipts oradditional annualprofit. At assumed342gross-revenue days5.81m/17000, incrementalnet~1.4755m but duration not measuredfromactualstart. One operating contract does not isolate stockcause. https://www.dianashippinginc.com/diana-shipping-inc-announces-time-charter-contract-for-m-v-astarte-with-aquavita-2/?catslug=press-releases

MG R92104 corrected vectorbt synthetic payoff audit = 6

Convex tail2026-09-21 04:08

[{"era":"train","slippage":0,"return_pct":12.82272727272728,"drawdown_pct":1.4014014014014031,"win_rate_pct":33.33333333333333,"n":3},{"era":"train","slippage":0.01,"return_pct":12.088500000000007,"drawdown_pct":1.5911823647294487,"win_rate_pct":33.33333333333333,"n":3},{"era":"test","slippage":0,"return_pct":-4.2,"drawdown_pct":4.1041041041041115,"win_rate_pct":0,"n":3},{"era":"test","slippage":0.01,"return_pct":-4.7639999999999985,"drawdown_pct":4.573146292585162,"win_rate_pct":0,"n":3}]; synthetic funded100USD wrapper, terminal100+100*legacy-capped-intrinsic-12premium,1USDfee each side,0/1%wrapper slippage. Chronological first3/pre2026 vs2026last3. Not actual option prices/returns; 1%wrapper slippage is dollar stress. Initial zero-price representation rejected fee-paying exits; corrected before using results. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MG R92104 repaired SIP request and reproduced technical metrics = 429

Convex tail2026-09-21 04:08

{"n":429,"last":{"c":20.75,"h":21.32,"l":20.65,"n":16919,"o":20.66,"t":"2026-09-18T04:00:00Z","v":2560047,"vw":20.835082},"priorclose":19.84,"sma50":17.593400000000003,"sma200":16.124950000000002,"atr20":0.76122,"rsi14":69.68641114982577,"prior252_high":20.4,"volume_ratio20":9.398944840955151}; supersedes current-run SIP-unavailable statement: fullRFC3339 start2025-01-01T00:00Z/end2026-09-21T03:40Z succeeds200, split-only. Date-only earlier403 not proof entitlement permanently unavailable. No automatic feed substitution. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=MG&feed=sip&adjustment=split

DSX R92104 bonus trigger and financing scale arithmetic = 1

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:07

Sep21 rawlast30 completed bars throughSep18: 1 VWAP>=3.0969,0>=3.5393,max3.12169. Latestclose3.11,volume2994701; Sep9close2.92->Sep18+6.50685%. Sep17confirmed207621newshares=6.93295% ofFridayvolume, a size comparison NOT proofthese shares traded. Aggregateconfirmed7882957newshares=6.33608% ofJul29base124413717;4cash/warrant contractual18.599888m. No automatic20of30trigger established; full historicalfirsttrigger scan needed before assertingnevertriggered. Periodasstated, not currentissuerdetermination. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://www.dianashippinginc.com/warrant-information/

DSX R92104 replicated breakout 2026-05-05 = -13.602668643439586

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:06

{"signal":"2026-05-05","entry":"2026-05-06","exit":"2026-06-03","entry_price":2.698,"return_pct":-13.602668643439586,"volume_ratio":3.416374426698746,"put_intrinsic":0.3130429948109712,"raw_return_pct":-13.602941176470596}; Sep21 calculation. Close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5x prior20,21-session separation; nextopen to20thsessionclose. Adjusted signal; raw return sensitivity shown. Mapped intrinsic not option PnL. Historical financing labels incomplete. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DSX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

DSX R92104 replicated breakout 2026-02-20 = -10.121616320125536

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:06

{"signal":"2026-02-20","entry":"2026-02-23","exit":"2026-03-20","entry_price":2.549,"return_pct":-10.121616320125536,"volume_ratio":1.7070635995893573,"put_intrinsic":0.20478226755590434,"raw_return_pct":-10.465116279069765}; Sep21 calculation. Close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5x prior20,21-session separation; nextopen to20thsessionclose. Adjusted signal; raw return sensitivity shown. Mapped intrinsic not option PnL. Historical financing labels incomplete. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DSX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

DSX R92104 replicated breakout 2026-01-15 = 13.78313253012049

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:06

{"signal":"2026-01-15","entry":"2026-01-16","exit":"2026-02-13","entry_price":2.075,"return_pct":13.78313253012049,"volume_ratio":1.7675096070979175,"put_intrinsic":0,"raw_return_pct":13.809523809523805}; Sep21 calculation. Close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5x prior20,21-session separation; nextopen to20thsessionclose. Adjusted signal; raw return sensitivity shown. Mapped intrinsic not option PnL. Historical financing labels incomplete. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DSX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

DSX R92104 replicated breakout 2025-12-03 = -16.79197994987469

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:06

{"signal":"2025-12-03","entry":"2025-12-04","exit":"2026-01-02","entry_price":1.995,"return_pct":-16.79197994987469,"volume_ratio":4.527200147542758,"put_intrinsic":0.41223057644110295,"raw_return_pct":-17.24137931034482}; Sep21 calculation. Close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5x prior20,21-session separation; nextopen to20thsessionclose. Adjusted signal; raw return sensitivity shown. Mapped intrinsic not option PnL. Historical financing labels incomplete. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DSX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

DSX R92104 replicated breakout 2022-05-23 = -18.729176582579722

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:06

{"signal":"2022-05-23","entry":"2022-05-24","exit":"2022-06-22","entry_price":4.202,"return_pct":-18.729176582579722,"volume_ratio":1.7583087873788608,"put_intrinsic":0.47247739171822944,"raw_return_pct":-21.83333333333333}; Sep21 calculation. Close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5x prior20,21-session separation; nextopen to20thsessionclose. Adjusted signal; raw return sensitivity shown. Mapped intrinsic not option PnL. Historical financing labels incomplete. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DSX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

DSX R92104 replicated breakout 2021-09-13 = -8.158625915635264

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:06

{"signal":"2021-09-13","entry":"2021-09-14","exit":"2021-10-11","entry_price":3.959,"return_pct":-8.158625915635264,"volume_ratio":2.135112933072566,"put_intrinsic":0.14373326597625669,"raw_return_pct":-8.166666666666666}; Sep21 calculation. Close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5x prior20,21-session separation; nextopen to20thsessionclose. Adjusted signal; raw return sensitivity shown. Mapped intrinsic not option PnL. Historical financing labels incomplete. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DSX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

DSX R92104 replicated breakout 2021-05-03 = 15.376065209336787

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:06

{"signal":"2021-05-03","entry":"2021-05-04","exit":"2021-06-01","entry_price":2.699,"return_pct":15.376065209336787,"volume_ratio":3.3229106579105716,"put_intrinsic":0,"raw_return_pct":15.403422982885084}; Sep21 calculation. Close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5x prior20,21-session separation; nextopen to20thsessionclose. Adjusted signal; raw return sensitivity shown. Mapped intrinsic not option PnL. Historical financing labels incomplete. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DSX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

DSX R92104 replicated breakout 2021-02-09 = 4.556711243189704

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:06

{"signal":"2021-02-09","entry":"2021-02-10","exit":"2021-03-10","entry_price":2.019,"return_pct":4.556711243189704,"volume_ratio":4.6707497063611445,"put_intrinsic":0,"raw_return_pct":4.575163398692816}; Sep21 calculation. Close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5x prior20,21-session separation; nextopen to20thsessionclose. Adjusted signal; raw return sensitivity shown. Mapped intrinsic not option PnL. Historical financing labels incomplete. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DSX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

DSX R92104 replicated breakout 2017-04-06 = -34.196891191709845

Convex liquid2026-09-21 04:06

{"signal":"2017-04-06","entry":"2017-04-07","exit":"2017-05-05","entry_price":3.86,"return_pct":-34.196891191709845,"volume_ratio":2.2831622115160437,"put_intrinsic":0.9535233160621761,"raw_return_pct":-34.18803418803418}; Sep21 calculation. Close>prior252 high, volume>=1.5x prior20,21-session separation; nextopen to20thsessionclose. Adjusted signal; raw return sensitivity shown. Mapped intrinsic not option PnL. Historical financing labels incomplete. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DSX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

MG Mill Road September18 beneficial ownership and call sales = 1938316

Convex tail2026-09-21 04:06

Sep18 13D/A, eventSep16:6.1% on31,849,893 shares denominator Aug5. Fund sold standard listed Feb19 2027 C25:1680contractsSep16 at1.0997/share and4120Sep17 at1.2105;580,000underlying. Filing describes ordinary-course trades, not adverse deal information, not own venue flow or October put OI. Latest8SEC filings allSep18 in current CLI query; not proof no later news. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1436126/000119312526395732/xslSCHEDULE_13D_X02/primary_doc.xml