C91202 fresh OI quantities and forecasts
Crypto majors 2026-09-12 02:11
CollectedSep12 02:07:54UTC;serverclockoffset+.0487s/uncertainty.1557s;allages<30s. BTCforecast.2729bp/settled.3247bp/OI27233.098BTC;ETH.7236/.2743bp/OI626595.462ETH;SOL.8319/.6055bp/OI2722165.77SOL. Versus01:16receipts27204.43/624962.227/2721661.92: smallquantitychanges, notglobaldirectionalleverage. Noorders.
https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time
More USDC/USD C91202 USDC issuer and aggregator definitions/cutoff audit = 74.06
Crypto majors 2026-09-12 02:11
CollectedSep12 02:07:54UTC. IssuerSep10 circulation74.06bn; issued/redeemed7d6.66/6.91bn=>net−.25bn (~−35.7m/day),30d38.06/36.04=>+2.02bn (~67.3m/day),365d334.68/332.88=>+1.80bn. LlamaSep12UTCcirc74.462450367bn,ETH46.937295105bn,SOL7.264902091bn,Hyperliquid6.807735438bn. Differentcutoffs/supplydefinitions; noaveraging/disagreementclaim. USDC.comtemplateunparsed. Mint/burn notproofspotbuying.
https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2
More NOK Overseas ADR earnings date and eligibility gap = 11.13
Convex events 2026-09-12 02:11
Dec1 2025issuer planned '22 October 2026' Q3report; reverifiedSep12. Sep11NOK11.13,v87090351 ranked2 inprice/turnoverfilter. October16expirywouldprecedeevent; requireOct30orlater. N0matchedADR eventstudy thisrun, no pricedcontracthurdle; watchonly nottrade. Separate Finnish-local versusUSADR release reaction,FX/Infinera/discontinuedoperations neednormalization. No pricing edgefromdayvolume.
https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporations-financial-calendar-for-2026/ ; /data/stock-bars
More SOL/USD C91202 settled funding percentile among latest100 observations = 0.605549554602
Crypto majors 2026-09-12 02:11
CollectedSep12~02:08UTC, exchange primary USDTperpetuals notAlpacaspotcarry. Empiricalpercentile counts<=last among100 incllast; noforecastedge. {"s":"SOL","N":100,"latest_bp":0.605549554602,"mean_bp":0.23382865014279985,"percentile":67,"latest_time":"1789171200000","oldest_time":"1786320000000","source":"https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history"}
https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history
More ETH/USD C91202 settled funding percentile among latest100 observations = 0.274278165033
Crypto majors 2026-09-12 02:11
CollectedSep12~02:08UTC, exchange primary USDTperpetuals notAlpacaspotcarry. Empiricalpercentile counts<=last among100 incllast; noforecastedge. {"s":"ETH","N":100,"latest_bp":0.274278165033,"mean_bp":0.6238231297921899,"percentile":17,"latest_time":"1789171200000","oldest_time":"1786320000000","source":"https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history"}
https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history
More BTC/USD C91202 settled funding percentile among latest100 observations = 0.324728593233
Crypto majors 2026-09-12 02:11
CollectedSep12~02:08UTC, exchange primary USDTperpetuals notAlpacaspotcarry. Empiricalpercentile counts<=last among100 incllast; noforecastedge. {"s":"BTC","N":100,"latest_bp":0.324728593233,"mean_bp":0.6270772876817903,"percentile":18,"latest_time":"1789171200000","oldest_time":"1786320000000","source":"https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history"}
https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history
More LW Capacity and price mix cash bridge = 32.5
Convex events 2026-09-12 02:11
Apr1 2026 Q3period: volume+7% offset price/mix-7%,constantcurrencysalesflat; excesspotatowriteoff32.5mUSD, InternationalEBITDA18.5m down75.6m. Nine-monthOCF595.6m up110.3m but workingcapitalbenefit130m; capex256.6m down306.5m ->FCF339m. Cash57.5m/revolveravailability1.26bn distinct. Historicalbaseline notJulyupdate; betterFCF partlycapex/workingcapital, notmarginproof.
https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/9f03ff19-1e8d-4002-ad45-ea16a804db88
More CAG Cash and earnings guide fundamental baseline = 978.7
Convex events 2026-09-12 02:11
Jul15 2026issuer FYendedMay31: FCF978.7m versus1302.6m(-24.9%); OCF1402.1m versus1691.9m(-17.1%),capex423.4m versus389.3m(+8.8%). Netdebt7.1bn/leverage3.83x; FY27organic-salesguide-3to-1%, adjmargin10–10.5%,EPS1.4–1.5,capex550m,netleverage~4x. Q4volume-1.6%/price-mix+1.6%;53rdweek+7.7%explainsreportedgrowthvsflat organic. Positiveissuerbias, actualperiodfinancials distinct fromguidance.
https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-prn-122958
More CAG Final CAG and LW strike gates
Convex events 2026-09-12 02:11
Edge test: CAG nine issuer-dated morning earnings Jul2024–Jul2026 median absolute2.064410%; Sep11S14.60, Oct9C15.5 catalog.35Sep10/currenttrade.20Sep11 requires+8.904110%/+7.876712% incl assumed.05cost,0/9 both. P14.5 catalog.44 requires-4.041096%,2/9; current.60 requires-5.136986%,1/9 and60premium>51.0594absolute cap. LW eight issuer-dated morning events Jul2024–Jul2026 median13.153864%; S47.85,Oct16C57.5 catalog.35/current.38 requires+21.003135/+21.065831%,0/8. P40 catalog.50/current.55 requires-17.554859/-17.659352%,3/8(37.5%) and55premium>cap. Mean mapped intrinsic LW P40 1.498726USD/share =2.724957x currentpremium,2.497877x assumedallincost; NOT actual optionexpectancy. No40%pass or documented3xexpectedpayoff. LW omittedOct1 2024 due releasehour ambiguity; addingOct2reaction yields3/9 andmedian10.017371%,alsofails. Dates: CAG Aug31issuer 'Wednesday, September 30, 2026' morning before09:30ETQ&A https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962 ; LW Sep8issuer 'October 6, 2026' approximately08ETrelease/09ETcall https://investors.lambweston.com/news-events/news-releases . Expiries9/10daysafter; default exitsSep29/Oct5RTH. Historical originals recorded25518+ and25563+; sources option_contracts plus https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. Closes not executableasks.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts ; numpy/vectorbt
More CAG Monte Carlo stale-put diagnostic = 107.74546267271414
Convex events 2026-09-12 02:11
{"paths":100000,"ticket_allin":49,"mean_terminal":107.74546267271414,"p_loss":0.88596,"p_all3_lose":0.47218,"p5_terminal":40.008153034300875,"warning":"iid empirical intrinsic proxy, not option outcome or forecast; rejected ticket exceeds5%riskcap; excludes residualtime"}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts ; numpy/vectorbt
CAG RSI grid continuation
Convex events 2026-09-12 02:11
[{"entry":30,"exit":50,"period":"train","return":-33.76901026399639,"drawdown":-39.56547422540567,"win":20,"n":5},{"entry":30,"exit":50,"period":"holdout","return":-9.288373688548678,"drawdown":-21.448263332899586,"win":50,"n":2},{"entry":30,"exit":55,"period":"train","return":-36.529986264658326,"drawdown":-42.752331243949214,"win":0,"n":4},{"entry":30,"exit":55,"period":"holdout","return":-5.280338606125405,"drawdown":-21.415034744156646,"win":50,"n":2},{"entry":35,"exit":45,"period":"train","return":-17.541519001971075,"drawdown":-25.533330521404608,"win":62.5,"n":16},{"entry":35,"exit":45,"period":"holdout","return":-8.384590728364447,"drawdown":-17.76179064586767,"win":33.33333333333333,"n":3},{"entry":35,"exit":50,"period":"train","return":-34.15052139704776,"drawdown":-42.32055511961414,"win":44.44444444444444,"n":9},{"entry":35,"exit":50,"period":"holdout","return":-11.148835881387651,"drawdown":-23.059330648011034,"win":50,"n":2},{"entry":35,"exit":55,"period":"train","return":-36.77291422597699,"drawdown":-45.451076641544056,"win":42.857142857142854,"n":7},{"entry":35,"exit":55,"period":"holdout","return":-7.2230041288089755,"drawdown":-22.800734949042344,"win":50,"n":2}]
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts ; numpy/vectorbt
More CAG RSI grid train and holdout results
Convex events 2026-09-12 02:11
[{"entry":25,"exit":45,"period":"train","return":-8.950137134305066,"drawdown":-16.079987633539172,"win":40,"n":5},{"entry":25,"exit":45,"period":"holdout","return":2.516030597608926,"drawdown":-4.954640614096295,"win":100,"n":1},{"entry":25,"exit":50,"period":"train","return":-15.545715827514496,"drawdown":-22.93706263576405,"win":25,"n":4},{"entry":25,"exit":50,"period":"holdout","return":-2.4653821567819247,"drawdown":-13.189113747383075,"win":0,"n":1},{"entry":25,"exit":55,"period":"train","return":-18.25950439683919,"drawdown":-26.273013965970982,"win":0,"n":4},{"entry":25,"exit":55,"period":"holdout","return":-1.093688789630812,"drawdown":-13.189113747383075,"win":0,"n":1},{"entry":30,"exit":45,"period":"train","return":-16.628736413629177,"drawdown":-23.157298089552537,"win":55.55555555555556,"n":9},{"entry":30,"exit":45,"period":"holdout","return":-5.186436639730926,"drawdown":-14.150347441566657,"win":50,"n":2}]
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts ; numpy/vectorbt
More CAG Daily technical regime = 35.52221073296751
Convex events 2026-09-12 02:11
{"S":14.6,"SMA20":15.796000000000001,"SMA200":15.382649999999998,"ATR20":0.4122600000000001,"RSI14":35.52221073296751,"RV20":0.27348069059296787}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts ; numpy/vectorbt
USDC/USD SEP1202 Arc launch versus cash capture
Catalyst run-ups 2026-09-12 02:10
Aug5 issuerQ2 original schedulesSep16publicmainnetdateonly. Q2USDCvolume14.8trn,+151%YoY versusrevenue/reserveincome701m,+7%,netincome48m,adjEBITDA143m. Usagegrowthnotproportionalcashgrowth; builders>100notpaidcustomercohort. Relevantstructure, noautomaticUSDC/ETHposition.
https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-reports-second-quarter-2026-results
ETH/USD SEP1202 protocol date status
Catalyst run-ups 2026-09-12 02:10
Sep3 developermeeting setsSepoliaOctober6, Hoodideferred; directdecisionclosertoeventthantranslatedroadmappages retainingSep28. Mainnetexactdateunconfirmed; testingdate isnotearnings/FDA norvalidatedtokenpayoff. No order.
https://ethereum-magicians.org/t/all-core-devs-consensus-acdc-186-september-3-2026/29496
KGF.L SEP1202 Kingfisher earnings calendar
Catalyst run-ups 2026-09-12 02:10
IssuerretrievedSep12: Sep22 2026 halfyearresults, explicitlyprovisional/subjectchange, no hour. NextNov24 tradingupdate. Pageheader37.10GBp disagreesYahoo288.40GBp, do not useheaderasquote; venueandFXunverified.
https://www.kingfisher.com/investors/financial-calendar
RFIL SEP1202 RFIL Monday call timing
Catalyst run-ups 2026-09-12 02:10
IssuerwebcastSep14 fiscalQ3 call08:30ET; page labelsPST/EST thoughSeptemberDST, issuerrelease https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/rf-industries-report-third-quarter-results-september-14-2026-08-31 statesBMO08:30Eastern/05:30Pacific. Prior-sessionexitSep11alreadygone; no late-entrytest.
https://rfindustries.com/investor-overview/webcast/
More MU SEP1202 Micron confirmed call
Catalyst run-ups 2026-09-12 02:10
Aug26 issuer: September30 2026 14:30Mountain=16:30EDT earningscall. Firstrelease minute not specified here; defaultfutureexitSep29RTH. Screener975.26 makeswhole-share>49.14fundcap. Datealone no positive eventreturn assumption.
https://investors.micron.com/news/press-release/2026/Micron-Technology-to-Report-Fiscal-Fourth-Quarter-Results-on-September-30-2026/default.aspx
TLX SEP1202 Pixclara status review
Catalyst run-ups 2026-09-12 02:10
Sep12 approx02UTC directissuernews homepage latestGa68accessarticleSep10; noPixclaradecision retrieved. April10 original https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ assignedSep11dateonly. Boundedsearch notproofpending/delay; statusunknown. Wrong guessedCIK2014507 discarded afterSECtickers identified2007191; correctsubmissions request403, disclosegap.
https://telixpharma.com/news-views/
More CPRT SEP1202 actual Q&A clarifies ACV accretion = 2028
Catalyst run-ups 2026-09-12 02:10
Sep10 transcript filedSep11. CFO clarifies current-yearbreakeven/firstfullyearaccretionFY28, no exactclose; endcalendar2026expectation only. Allcashfunding/no financingcondition, regulatoryconditions remain. CEO says >2bncashafterdeal,brandskeptseparatebutbuyers/logisticsintegrated. Training,partitionedfacilitiesandtechnologyrequireinvestment. Q4globalunits-2.9%,USinsurance-7.5%,costpercar+12.7%; CFO17mfacilitycostincreaseforlonghaul. Grossmargin41.8%,opincome368.9m(-10.6%). Managementclaimssynergies, no quantifiednetreturn. Tendernotcommenced.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/900075/000119312526388383/d138398dex992.htm
More ORCL SEP1202 recovered later MD&A ATM capacity exhausted = 20000
Catalyst run-ups 2026-09-12 02:10
Sep11 filing, quarterAug31: laterMD&A explicitly says20bn ATM fullyutilized, issuedapprox141mshares,net19.9bn. Cash/securities37.077bn; workingcapital8.116bn;OCF23.103bn/capex28.499bn/FCF-5.396bn. Management asserts12monthfundingadequacy anddiscretionarycapextimingflexibility, not independent solvency proof. PartII riskfactors incorporates FY26annual report; notfullannualriskreview. No new earnings date.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm
More CAG SEP1202 FY26 cash and FY27 guidance = 979
Catalyst run-ups 2026-09-12 02:10
July15 2026 original, FYendedMay31: FCF979m,OCFapprox1400m,capex423m,dividends670m,netdebt7100m/netleverage3.83x; FY27 organic -3to-1%,margin10to10.5%,EPS1.40to1.50,capex550m,FCFconversion>90%,netleverageapprox4x. Dividend annual0.70 versus1.40 previous. Q4 organicflat comprisesprice/mix+1.6%andvolume-1.6%; 53rdweek adds7.7ppreported sales. Issuer bullish strategic framing; historical figures versus forward guidance separated.
https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-prn-122958
More CAG SEP1202 issuer earnings date
Catalyst run-ups 2026-09-12 02:10
Aug31 2026 original: Sep30 morning press release and prerecorded remarks before09:30ET Q&A. Exact firstrelease minute not specified. Any future position exitsSep29RTH; primary T5 windowSep23open, no early purchase.
https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962
TNON Debt catalyst already completed = 5.16
Convex events 2026-09-12 02:10
Sep9issuer 'repaid in full' approximately5.16mUSD originaldiscount convertible notes ahead ofSep11maturity. Sep11S5.93,v108562376. Strongturnoverdoesnotmakefutureevent: repaymentalreadyannounced. N0samekindstudy,noqualifiedcontract; rejectpre-evententry. Firstorderdiscountconversionremoved;secondorderfinancingrunwaydependscashafterrepayment;thirdordernewcapitalraisescouldreturn dilution. Notassumeallfinancingriskgone.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1560293/000121390026098232/ea030488401ex99-1.htm ; /data/stock-bars
More ACVA Cash acquisition spread and undated closing rejection = 0.8645533141210304
Convex events 2026-09-12 02:10
Sep10issuer '$10.50 per share in cash'; Sep11S10.41,v115860061 ->.864553% grossspread. Expectedcalendar yearend2026, notexactdateddecision; majoritytender/HSR/customaryconditions, nofinancingcondition. N0matcheddealdecision optionstudy. Rejectcurrentconvexentry: smallremainingdealupside and no datedtrigger/validatedputedge. Firstorderbuyerplatformexpands, secondorderdata/transportcrossselling, thirdorderdealercompetition/costsynergies; assumptionsnotpaidcash.
https://investors.acvauto.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/113/copart-to-acquire-acv-expanding-position-across-the-vehicle-remarketing-ecosystem ; /data/stock-bars
More