Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
NOK Issuer-timed earnings ADR daily reaction 2025-04-24 = -8.474903474903472
Convex events2026-09-12 04:05
Measured Sep12 2026; issuer original dated 2025-04-24 at08:00 EEST; before US RTH. SIP adjustment=all, same-day reaction, prior close baseline. {"date":"2025-04-24","prev":5.18,"open":4.829,"close":4.741,"gap":-6.776061776061781,"move":-8.474903474903472,"market":2.104286228384189,"excess":-10.57918970328766} Source is issuer; promotional financial narrative, timing direct. Earnings set11 consecutive scheduled releases2024–July2026; prices not option fills. https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporation-interim-report-for-q1-2025/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
NOK Issuer-timed earnings ADR daily reaction 2025-01-30 = 5.864626796476591
Convex events2026-09-12 04:05
Measured Sep12 2026; issuer original dated 2025-01-30 at08:00 EET; before US RTH. SIP adjustment=all, same-day reaction, prior close baseline. {"date":"2025-01-30","prev":4.314,"open":4.688,"close":4.567,"gap":8.669448307834937,"move":5.864626796476591,"market":0.5374799290120968,"excess":5.327146867464494} Source is issuer; promotional financial narrative, timing direct. Earnings set11 consecutive scheduled releases2024–July2026; prices not option fills. https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporation-financial-report-for-q4-and-full-year-2024/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
NOK Issuer-timed earnings ADR daily reaction 2024-10-17 = -2.687673772011112
Convex events2026-09-12 04:05
Measured Sep12 2026; issuer original dated 2024-10-17 at08:00 EEST; before US RTH. SIP adjustment=all, same-day reaction, prior close baseline. {"date":"2024-10-17","prev":4.316,"open":4.079,"close":4.2,"gap":-5.4911955514365225,"move":-2.687673772011112,"market":0.0087634738410447,"excess":-2.696437245852157} Source is issuer; promotional financial narrative, timing direct. Earnings set11 consecutive scheduled releases2024–July2026; prices not option fills. https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporation-interim-report-for-q3-2024/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
NOK Issuer-timed earnings ADR daily reaction 2024-07-18 = -7.165689930740548
Convex events2026-09-12 04:05
Measured Sep12 2026; issuer original dated 2024-07-18 at08:00 EEST; before US RTH. SIP adjustment=all, same-day reaction, prior close baseline. {"date":"2024-07-18","prev":3.754,"open":3.59,"close":3.485,"gap":-4.368673415023983,"move":-7.165689930740548,"market":-0.7701639585324549,"excess":-6.395525972208094} Source is issuer; promotional financial narrative, timing direct. Earnings set11 consecutive scheduled releases2024–July2026; prices not option fills. https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporation-report-for-q2-and-half-year-2024/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
NOK Issuer-timed earnings ADR daily reaction 2024-04-18 = 3.588290840415476
Convex events2026-09-12 04:05
Measured Sep12 2026; issuer original dated 2024-04-18 at08:00 EEST; before US RTH. SIP adjustment=all, same-day reaction, prior close baseline. {"date":"2024-04-18","prev":3.177,"open":3.215,"close":3.291,"gap":1.1960969468051583,"move":3.588290840415476,"market":-0.2051787106569835,"excess":3.793469551072459} Source is issuer; promotional financial narrative, timing direct. Earnings set11 consecutive scheduled releases2024–July2026; prices not option fills. https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporation-interim-report-for-q1-2024/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
NOK Issuer-timed earnings ADR daily reaction 2024-01-25 = 11.444478812248684
Convex events2026-09-12 04:05
Measured Sep12 2026; issuer original dated 2024-01-25 at08:00 EET; before US RTH. SIP adjustment=all, same-day reaction, prior close baseline. {"date":"2024-01-25","prev":3.233,"open":3.508,"close":3.603,"gap":8.506031549644288,"move":11.444478812248684,"market":0.5454738406027948,"excess":10.899004971645889} Source is issuer; promotional financial narrative, timing direct. Earnings set11 consecutive scheduled releases2024–July2026; prices not option fills. https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporation-financial-report-for-q4-and-full-year-2023/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
BTC/USD C91204 sole own closed trade calibration = 1
Crypto majors2026-09-12 04:05
Sep12read:BTC entry81614.8 exit81548.7,openedSep3 19:42:24.677UTC closed20:30:20.345UTC operatorliquidation,notional137.2644226836. Price-return -0.08099%,0/1wins,0stop/targetexits; cannot estimate strategy win/loss odds or ordertype slippage from one externally terminated trade/no synchronous pretradequote. No current crypto open/pending lots;153.18fundcash from run context. query_trades fund=crypto trade10
C91204 observed credited crypto fees = 0.25
Crypto majors2026-09-12 04:05
Read Sep12~04:03UTC; primary venue fee table tier1 30-dayvolume0-100000USD maker0.15%/taker0.25%. Fee charged on received asset: ETH on ETH/USD buy,USD on sell. Model uses25bp per side, buy quantity cash*(1-.0025)/slippedentry, sell proceeds quantity*slippedexit*(1-.0025). Actual account activity fee audit unavailable;10/30bpslip assumptions, not measured fills. Maker status depends on liquidity, marketable limit is taker. https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
ETH/USD Completed daily fixed momentum signal and proposed fractional allocation = -43.62278628330868
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:05
Measured 2026-09-12 ~04:03UTC. Source is venue-routed Alpaca aggregates, one upstream source. Completed bars only; crypto Sept12 partial excluded. 12m=252/365 return intervals, needing253/366 closes. ATR20=simple mean true range; five-year rolling60 gains includes losses, percentile90 over all observations. Levels indicative at last close, no orders. {"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":2080,"date":"2026-09-11 00:00:00+00:00","close":2516.066,"return12_pct":-43.62278628330868,"sma200":2052.4675781083274,"atr20":98.98817058315004,"above":true,"p90_60_pct":42.97560686769694,"p90_n":1826,"stop":2318.0896588336996,"target":3597.360632691787,"risk_pct":7.868487597952521,"reward_risk":5.461736621263751,"high20":2664.8535,"excluded":false,"rank":7,"proposed_notional":0,"estimated_qty":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars?symbols=ETH%2FUSD&timeframe=1Day
BTC/USD Completed daily fixed momentum signal and proposed fractional allocation = -33.16656763055563
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:05
Measured 2026-09-12 ~04:03UTC. Source is venue-routed Alpaca aggregates, one upstream source. Completed bars only; crypto Sept12 partial excluded. 12m=252/365 return intervals, needing253/366 closes. ATR20=simple mean true range; five-year rolling60 gains includes losses, percentile90 over all observations. Levels indicative at last close, no orders. {"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":2080,"date":"2026-09-11 00:00:00+00:00","close":77212.8315,"return12_pct":-33.16656763055563,"sma200":70029.04266958944,"atr20":2437.141232487298,"above":true,"p90_60_pct":37.30250029995664,"p90_n":1826,"stop":72338.54903502541,"target":106015.14820189253,"risk_pct":6.312788134151765,"reward_risk":5.909037260121655,"high20":82233.502538071,"excluded":false,"rank":6,"proposed_notional":0,"estimated_qty":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars?symbols=BTC%2FUSD&timeframe=1Day
TLT Completed daily fixed momentum signal and proposed fractional allocation = -5.756904789651552
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:05
Measured 2026-09-12 ~04:03UTC. Source is venue-routed Alpaca aggregates, one upstream source. Completed bars only; crypto Sept12 partial excluded. 12m=252/365 return intervals, needing253/366 closes. ATR20=simple mean true range; five-year rolling60 gains includes losses, percentile90 over all observations. Levels indicative at last close, no orders. {"symbol":"TLT","bars":1579,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":80.87,"return12_pct":-5.756904789651552,"sma200":84.50049999999999,"atr20":0.6911250000000002,"above":false,"p90_60_pct":6.150557763249668,"p90_n":1255,"stop":79.48775,"target":85.84395606314001,"risk_pct":1.7092246815877339,"reward_risk":3.5984489514487286,"high20":83.28,"excluded":false,"rank":null,"proposed_notional":0,"estimated_qty":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLT&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
GLD Completed daily fixed momentum signal and proposed fractional allocation = 18.94350653224364
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:05
Measured 2026-09-12 ~04:03UTC. Source is venue-routed Alpaca aggregates, one upstream source. Completed bars only; crypto Sept12 partial excluded. 12m=252/365 return intervals, needing253/366 closes. ATR20=simple mean true range; five-year rolling60 gains includes losses, percentile90 over all observations. Levels indicative at last close, no orders. {"symbol":"GLD","bars":1579,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.77,"return12_pct":18.94350653224364,"sma200":415.93449999999996,"atr20":7.952445000000003,"above":false,"p90_60_pct":16.781703911009302,"p90_n":1255,"stop":382.86510999999996,"target":465.69040068593176,"risk_pct":3.988487097825816,"reward_risk":4.2075362159645096,"high20":429.42,"excluded":false,"rank":null,"proposed_notional":0,"estimated_qty":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=GLD&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
EEM Completed daily fixed momentum signal and proposed fractional allocation = 34.203758654797234
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:05
Measured 2026-09-12 ~04:03UTC. Source is venue-routed Alpaca aggregates, one upstream source. Completed bars only; crypto Sept12 partial excluded. 12m=252/365 return intervals, needing253/366 closes. ATR20=simple mean true range; five-year rolling60 gains includes losses, percentile90 over all observations. Levels indicative at last close, no orders. {"symbol":"EEM","bars":1579,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":67.84,"return12_pct":34.203758654797234,"sma200":61.760349999999995,"atr20":0.9526399999999988,"above":true,"p90_60_pct":10.717963493264469,"p90_n":1255,"stop":65.93472,"target":75.11106643383062,"risk_pct":2.808490566037732,"reward_risk":3.8162718518173833,"high20":69.125,"excluded":true,"rank":1,"proposed_notional":0,"estimated_qty":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
EFA Completed daily fixed momentum signal and proposed fractional allocation = 19.45812807881775
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:05
Measured 2026-09-12 ~04:03UTC. Source is venue-routed Alpaca aggregates, one upstream source. Completed bars only; crypto Sept12 partial excluded. 12m=252/365 return intervals, needing253/366 closes. ATR20=simple mean true range; five-year rolling60 gains includes losses, percentile90 over all observations. Levels indicative at last close, no orders. {"symbol":"EFA","bars":1579,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.7,"return12_pct":19.45812807881775,"sma200":100.67334999999999,"atr20":0.8808699999999987,"above":true,"p90_60_pct":9.630282889112697,"p90_n":1255,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"risk_pct":1.6511152764760988,"reward_risk":5.832592688298649,"high20":108.89,"excluded":false,"rank":4,"proposed_notional":48.23,"estimated_qty":0.45201499531396433} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EFA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
IWM Completed daily fixed momentum signal and proposed fractional allocation = 23.457264957264947
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:05
Measured 2026-09-12 ~04:03UTC. Source is venue-routed Alpaca aggregates, one upstream source. Completed bars only; crypto Sept12 partial excluded. 12m=252/365 return intervals, needing253/366 closes. ATR20=simple mean true range; five-year rolling60 gains includes losses, percentile90 over all observations. Levels indicative at last close, no orders. {"symbol":"IWM","bars":1579,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":288.89,"return12_pct":23.457264957264947,"sma200":273.16515,"atr20":3.070524999999995,"above":true,"p90_60_pct":12.823844643545982,"p90_n":1255,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"risk_pct":2.1257399010003777,"reward_risk":6.032649919922496,"high20":305.18,"excluded":false,"rank":3,"proposed_notional":48.22,"estimated_qty":0.16691474263560524} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
QQQ Completed daily fixed momentum signal and proposed fractional allocation = 23.69878183831673
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:05
Measured 2026-09-12 ~04:03UTC. Source is venue-routed Alpaca aggregates, one upstream source. Completed bars only; crypto Sept12 partial excluded. 12m=252/365 return intervals, needing253/366 closes. ATR20=simple mean true range; five-year rolling60 gains includes losses, percentile90 over all observations. Levels indicative at last close, no orders. {"symbol":"QQQ","bars":1579,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":714.88,"return12_pct":23.69878183831673,"sma200":659.2565,"atr20":7.868424999999997,"above":true,"p90_60_pct":16.16958533244174,"p90_n":1255,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"risk_pct":2.2013274955237234,"reward_risk":7.3453792610693736,"high20":734.58,"excluded":false,"rank":2,"proposed_notional":48.22,"estimated_qty":0.06745188003581021} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=QQQ&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
SPY Completed daily fixed momentum signal and proposed fractional allocation = 18.489062524223687
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:05
Measured 2026-09-12 ~04:03UTC. Source is venue-routed Alpaca aggregates, one upstream source. Completed bars only; crypto Sept12 partial excluded. 12m=252/365 return intervals, needing253/366 closes. ATR20=simple mean true range; five-year rolling60 gains includes losses, percentile90 over all observations. Levels indicative at last close, no orders. {"symbol":"SPY","bars":1579,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":764.29,"return12_pct":18.489062524223687,"sma200":712.0451999999999,"atr20":5.452859999999982,"above":true,"p90_60_pct":10.842338318374644,"p90_n":1255,"stop":753.38428,"target":847.1569075335055,"risk_pct":1.4269086341571868,"reward_risk":7.598481121237832,"high20":778.8,"excluded":false,"rank":5,"proposed_notional":0,"estimated_qty":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 Puerto Rico contract stopped, not revenue backlog = 400
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:03
Aug18issuer8-K: Aug3proposed10year40mannual/400mpossiblebacklog,up40MWwithin400MWproject. OversightBoardAug14revokedapproval; PREPAAug17holdallwork; noformalterminationnotice asoffiling. Noassurancerevenue. Sep9chemistryguidance not proofpowerrestart. Issuerreportofauthorityactions, notfreshSep12status; preserveperiod. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000082/ftk-20260817.htm
FTK R91204 September slide claims and customer validation gap = 40
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:03
Sep9issuerpresentation: H1international12.6m/H2>40mforecast; claims primaryfluidchemistrysupplier supportingSaudiunconventionaloperations,extendedsupplyoperationthroughmid2027. DAQ2Montana5.9m; fieldgas caseannualvalue3.1-5.5mper40MW,6-10xcustomerROI,14dayszerodowntime (issuerselectedunnamedcase, notrentreceived). 89unitsdeployed OR onorder vs25activeend2025, mixeddenominators. Saudiidentity,exclusivity,price/volume/paymentterms unrecovered; Aramcogenericportal notFTKcontractproof. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm
FTK R91204 Controlling customer financing counterargument = 72
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:03
ProFracQ2'26release: debt1.10bn/netdebt1.08bn,liquidity72m including14mcash(excludesFTK)/58mABL. Jul1refinance300mABL,eligible243m/borrowings173m/about71mavailable. Parentreport says58%FTKQ2revenueintercompany; FTKstandalone56.5%computed mayreflectconsolidationbasis, not independent exactmatch. Affiliated source not independent ofFTK; liquidityrefinance counters imminentdefault assumption. https://ir.pfholdingscorp.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001104659-26-091463/tm2622356d1_ex99-1.htm
FTK R91204 Annual risk factors challenge scarcity moat
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:03
FiledMar16'26,year2025: CTtraditionalcompetitors andwholesalers sell direct; lowbarriers andpossiblepricecompetition. Rawmaterials generallymultisource; prices/tariffs/weather/war affect procurement; suppliersmayallocate; pass-throughnotassured andno commodityhedges. CertainVeraxDAtechnicalcomponents sole-sourced/not easilyreplaceable. Multiple-sourcing efforts do not contradict narrower sole-sourcecomponents. No currentoutage/leadtimeorallocation notice established. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000020/ftk-20251231.htm
FTK R91204 Balance sheet financing and share denominator = 36.220429
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:03
Aug3 outstanding36,220,429common; June2022warrants2,184,140shares nominalstrike plus4.5mexercise fee; sixmillionApril2025warrants alreadyexercisedMarch13'26, do NOTdoublecount. June30ABL10.4m/cash4.402m,available6.6m; Aug3availability~15m. JulyamendmentOct31'26maturity,12monthextensionoption>=30daysnotice. ABL20mcap/85%eligibleAR/60%inventory/realestate,prime+2%,Q2weighted8.75%. Acquiredasset107.5mconsideration vs15.1mcommoncontrolbook,92.4mequityreduction; no valuationfairness conclusion. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm
FTK R91204 Shortfall settlement differs from cash guarantee = 7.2
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:03
March12 2026 agreement settles2025shortfall gross27.4m less7.2moffset/minor adjustments=19.7m; cash7.2m (5mQ1+2.2mApril received), equipmentcredit12.5m. 3.0mcredit usedH1,remainderH2expected/carry2027allowed. H1'26shortfall revenue3.9m vs15.2m prior; 2026minimums not expected met. ProFraccontract10years,minimumgreater70% requirements/first30fleets,damages25% purchase shortfall. Fixedrental first5years/market sixth; contracted rental104.938m throughApr2030. ProFrac61% beneficialownership inclwarrants. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm
FTK R91204 Receivables concentration and supplier exposures = 63.8
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:03
June30 2026: related customer63.8% H1revenue; relatedAR70.711m/external43.415m versusDec31 64.204/19.043; equipmentcredit9.521m; netinventory26.626vs10.629m. No related credit allowance. ExternalARcustomerA14.894m34.3%,C8.528m19.6%; anonymized, cannot identify Saudi counterparty. Q2supplierA23.624m33.7%,B7.808m11.2%;H1A25.1/B12.4/D11.8% purchases. Closest issuer record. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm
FTK R91204 Quarter and half revenue margins = 169.418
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:03
USDm Q2total99.367/external43.225/related56.142/COGS75.584/GP23.783; H1total169.418/external61.390/related108.028/GP39.324. Q2'25total58.350/GP14.407; H1'25total113.712/GP26.856. Gross-margin percentages Q2 23.9vs24.7/H1 23.2vs23.6. Jun30period,Aug4filing. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm
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