FTK R91204 CLI diagnostic and bar integrity = 13.777436404528153
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
CLI breakout20/days2080/stop10%/target30%:return13.777436%,drawdown49.907356%,win33.333333%,N66,1408IEXbars. CLI usesIEXunadjusted/noexplicitcosts/noseparateholdout; notcomparabletoSIP3Rrule,notsizinginput. SIP2020-Sep11'26 FTK/SPY1682uniqueeach,ACDC1086,0FTKdatesmissingvsSPY,positivevalidOHLC. PrimaryentrydaystopsNov6'24(6.38→5.90403),Nov20'24(8.50→7.65604),Oct7'25(17.71→16.02776). No15mincoverageclaim.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 final scenarios
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
[{"scenario":"bear","EBITDA_m_assumed":40,"multiple_assumed":12,"price":11.982243501312476,"return_pct":-56.15717708996533},{"scenario":"base","EBITDA_m_assumed":52,"multiple_assumed":18,"price":24.571823817989564,"return_pct":-10.09211921701586},{"scenario":"bull","EBITDA_m_assumed":65,"multiple_assumed":22,"price":38.21053582772308,"return_pct":39.81169347867941}] Sep11SIP27.33 + June30debt/Aug3shares. Multiples andodds subjectiveillustrations, notestimatedforecast. Netdebt45.998m excludesleases unlessstated; warrantcase adds2.18414mshares/4.5mexercise proceeds,otherSBCnotfullFD. Costshock assumesno passthrough; receivablelag assumesuniform40mH2over184days.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm
FTK R91204 final valuation
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
{"basic_marketcap_m":989.90432457,"gross_debt_m":50.4,"net_debt_m":45.998,"basic_EV_m":1035.90232457,"basic_EV_EBITDA_52":19.921198549423078,"warrant_adjusted_shares_m":38.404569,"warrant_adjusted_EV_m":1091.09487077,"warrant_adjusted_EV_EBITDA_52":20.982593668653845,"lease_inclusive_basic_EV_m":1042.37732457,"scenario_weighted_return_pct":-11.435683404976881,"scenario_weights_assumed":[0.3,0.45,0.25],"reference_stop_loss_pct":14.339773143066237,"reference_target_gain_pct":43.0193194291987,"target_implied_EV_EBITDA_52":28.110623615388853,"target_required_EBITDA_at20x":73.08762140001102,"WC_extra30days_m":6.521739130434782,"WC_extra60days_m":13.043478260869565,"supplierA_Q2_10pct_costshock_m":2.3624,"supplierA_Q2_10pct_costshock_as_guide_raise_pct":78.74666666666667} Sep11SIP27.33 + June30debt/Aug3shares. Multiples andodds subjectiveillustrations, notestimatedforecast. Netdebt45.998m excludesleases unlessstated; warrantcase adds2.18414mshares/4.5mexercise proceeds,otherSBCnotfullFD. Costshock assumesno passthrough; receivablelag assumesuniform40mH2over184days.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm
FTK R91204 measured financial
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
{"H1_FCF":-7.819,"H1_OCF_NI_pct":-45.01607717041801,"H1_AR_total":114.126,"H1_AR_growth_pct":37.0932285848139,"external_AR_growth_pct":127.98403612876123,"external_H1_sales_growth_pct":23.75768571716561,"external_Q2_DSO_proxy":91.4,"related_Q2_DSO_proxy":114.61474475437284,"total_Q2_DSO_proxy":104.51624784888342,"OSP_cash_pct_net":36.548223350253814,"guide_increment_margin_pct":15,"international_H2_growth_min_pct":217.4603174603175,"international_H2_quarter_runrate_min":20,"extra30days_AR_on_H2_40":6.521739130434782,"interest_on_extra30days_AR_6mo":0.28532608695652173,"marketcap_basic":989.90432457,"EV_basic_ABL_only":995.9023245699999,"EV_EBITDA_basic_ABL_only":19.151967780192305} CalculatedSep12 fromSep11completedbars/June30filing. MC IIDtrainingbootstrap seed91204,notforecast. DSOendingAR/Q2sales*91 mixesunbilled/shortfallandterms,notinvoiceaging. ABL-onlyEV diagnostic incomplete; usevaluationfinal adding40mPWRtek.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm
FTK R91204 measured technical
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
{"date":"2026-09-11","close":27.33,"high20":35.83,"sma50":26.823400000000003,"adr20":1.9595300000000009,"atr20":2.052530000000001,"signal":false,"vol60_pct":103.0331448621469,"volume20":700525.6,"corr60_acdc":0.40697150527842046,"corr60_spy":0.3204399157250849,"stop":23.410939999999997,"target":39.087180000000004,"sep9_return_pct":14.402954452195305,"sep9_spy_pct":-0.46477622852368894,"sep9_residual_pct":15.65947218782901,"beta60_pre":2.723833758262918,"alpha60_pre":0.00009455445657238122} CalculatedSep12 fromSep11completedbars/June30filing. MC IIDtrainingbootstrap seed91204,notforecast. DSOendingAR/Q2sales*91 mixesunbilled/shortfallandterms,notinvoiceaging. ABL-onlyEV diagnostic incomplete; usevaluationfinal adding40mPWRtek.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 measured mc
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
{"sample":26,"paths":30000,"trades_per_path":20,"terminal_pct_q5_q50_q95":[-90.3240045681434,-78.35031746269607,-41.55157701550157],"loss_probability_pct":99.19666666666667,"dd20_probability_pct":100,"mean_CI95_pct":[-10.889605279641955,-1.1583756883662926],"halfKelly_notional_fraction":0,"full_notional":0,"quarter_probe":0} CalculatedSep12 fromSep11completedbars/June30filing. MC IIDtrainingbootstrap seed91204,notforecast. DSOendingAR/Q2sales*91 mixesunbilled/shortfallandterms,notinvoiceaging. ABL-onlyEV diagnostic incomplete; usevaluationfinal adding40mPWRtek.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 L40 2025-01-01 slippage15bp = -19.572883728807575
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
{"L":40,"start":"2025-01-01","end":"2026-09-11","slip_bps":15,"return_pct":-19.572883728807575,"drawdown_pct":36.008192765293465,"win_rate_pct":27.27272727272727,"sample":11,"mean_pct":-0.4684929682200134,"avgwin_pct":29.069805332984934,"avgloss_pct":11.545354831171869,"open":0,"targets":3,"entryday_exits":0,"buyhold_pct":185.57993730407523} Protocol2531; 2020warmup; nextopen2ADRstop/3Rtarget/40sessions;1bpfees eachside; two ordered slots/day preserveentrydayexits; stopfirstambiguousbar. vectorbtcashreturnreconciledwhenflat. Dailyproxy excludes15min/+2Rquartermanagement; adjustedbarsnotliveexecution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 L40 2025-01-01 slippage5bp = -17.78387832940527
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
{"L":40,"start":"2025-01-01","end":"2026-09-11","slip_bps":5,"return_pct":-17.78387832940527,"drawdown_pct":34.97608791075457,"win_rate_pct":27.27272727272727,"sample":11,"mean_pct":-0.26923054228368476,"avgwin_pct":29.328203535652225,"avgloss_pct":11.368268321509651,"open":0,"targets":3,"entryday_exits":0,"buyhold_pct":185.57993730407523} Protocol2531; 2020warmup; nextopen2ADRstop/3Rtarget/40sessions;1bpfees eachside; two ordered slots/day preserveentrydayexits; stopfirstambiguousbar. vectorbtcashreturnreconciledwhenflat. Dailyproxy excludes15min/+2Rquartermanagement; adjustedbarsnotliveexecution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 L40 2021-01-01 slippage15bp = -60.61025336424755
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
{"L":40,"start":"2021-01-01","end":"2024-12-31","slip_bps":15,"return_pct":-60.61025336424755,"drawdown_pct":60.61025336424757,"win_rate_pct":18.75,"sample":16,"mean_pct":-4.856992186262564,"avgwin_pct":20.700899270825026,"avgloss_pct":10.754967137898161,"open":0,"targets":2,"entryday_exits":2,"buyhold_pct":-25.77881619937695} Protocol2531; 2020warmup; nextopen2ADRstop/3Rtarget/40sessions;1bpfees eachside; two ordered slots/day preserveentrydayexits; stopfirstambiguousbar. vectorbtcashreturnreconciledwhenflat. Dailyproxy excludes15min/+2Rquartermanagement; adjustedbarsnotliveexecution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 L40 2021-01-01 slippage5bp = -59.32939565913592
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
{"L":40,"start":"2021-01-01","end":"2024-12-31","slip_bps":5,"return_pct":-59.32939565913592,"drawdown_pct":59.39056671653302,"win_rate_pct":18.75,"sample":16,"mean_pct":-4.666515551142478,"avgwin_pct":20.942542894222807,"avgloss_pct":10.576298269303699,"open":0,"targets":2,"entryday_exits":2,"buyhold_pct":-25.77881619937695} Protocol2531; 2020warmup; nextopen2ADRstop/3Rtarget/40sessions;1bpfees eachside; two ordered slots/day preserveentrydayexits; stopfirstambiguousbar. vectorbtcashreturnreconciledwhenflat. Dailyproxy excludes15min/+2Rquartermanagement; adjustedbarsnotliveexecution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 L20 2025-01-01 slippage15bp = -31.19728638446766
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
{"L":20,"start":"2025-01-01","end":"2026-09-11","slip_bps":15,"return_pct":-31.19728638446766,"drawdown_pct":47.14714499619289,"win_rate_pct":28.57142857142857,"sample":14,"mean_pct":-1.3917287052941032,"avgwin_pct":23.37766413995262,"avgloss_pct":11.299485843392791,"open":0,"targets":3,"entryday_exits":1,"buyhold_pct":185.57993730407523} Protocol2531; 2020warmup; nextopen2ADRstop/3Rtarget/40sessions;1bpfees eachside; two ordered slots/day preserveentrydayexits; stopfirstambiguousbar. vectorbtcashreturnreconciledwhenflat. Dailyproxy excludes15min/+2Rquartermanagement; adjustedbarsnotliveexecution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 L20 2025-01-01 slippage5bp = -29.24358409502228
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
{"L":20,"start":"2025-01-01","end":"2026-09-11","slip_bps":5,"return_pct":-29.24358409502228,"drawdown_pct":45.86333093916808,"win_rate_pct":28.57142857142857,"sample":14,"mean_pct":-1.1943146005393415,"avgwin_pct":23.624666656000485,"avgloss_pct":11.121907103155273,"open":0,"targets":3,"entryday_exits":1,"buyhold_pct":185.57993730407523} Protocol2531; 2020warmup; nextopen2ADRstop/3Rtarget/40sessions;1bpfees eachside; two ordered slots/day preserveentrydayexits; stopfirstambiguousbar. vectorbtcashreturnreconciledwhenflat. Dailyproxy excludes15min/+2Rquartermanagement; adjustedbarsnotliveexecution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 L20 2021-01-01 slippage15bp = -86.44652022049006
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
{"L":20,"start":"2021-01-01","end":"2024-12-31","slip_bps":15,"return_pct":-86.44652022049006,"drawdown_pct":88.60896885106324,"win_rate_pct":15.384615384615385,"sample":26,"mean_pct":-6.648780919867852,"avgwin_pct":21.413595324079633,"avgloss_pct":11.751031146040116,"open":0,"targets":3,"entryday_exits":2,"buyhold_pct":-25.77881619937695} Protocol2531; 2020warmup; nextopen2ADRstop/3Rtarget/40sessions;1bpfees eachside; two ordered slots/day preserveentrydayexits; stopfirstambiguousbar. vectorbtcashreturnreconciledwhenflat. Dailyproxy excludes15min/+2Rquartermanagement; adjustedbarsnotliveexecution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 L20 2021-01-01 slippage5bp = -85.72309236935189
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
{"L":20,"start":"2021-01-01","end":"2024-12-31","slip_bps":5,"return_pct":-85.72309236935189,"drawdown_pct":88.21501408446859,"win_rate_pct":15.384615384615385,"sample":26,"mean_pct":-6.461891452072682,"avgwin_pct":21.656665767474024,"avgloss_pct":11.574356401081175,"open":0,"targets":3,"entryday_exits":2,"buyhold_pct":-25.77881619937695} Protocol2531; 2020warmup; nextopen2ADRstop/3Rtarget/40sessions;1bpfees eachside; two ordered slots/day preserveentrydayexits; stopfirstambiguousbar. vectorbtcashreturnreconciledwhenflat. Dailyproxy excludes15min/+2Rquartermanagement; adjustedbarsnotliveexecution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 L10 2025-01-01 slippage15bp = -7.502678720910063
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
{"L":10,"start":"2025-01-01","end":"2026-09-11","slip_bps":15,"return_pct":-7.502678720910063,"drawdown_pct":47.70467200021207,"win_rate_pct":33.33333333333333,"sample":15,"mean_pct":1.167603404906834,"avgwin_pct":26.842082007906022,"avgloss_pct":11.66963589659276,"open":1,"targets":4,"entryday_exits":1,"buyhold_pct":185.57993730407523} Protocol2531; 2020warmup; nextopen2ADRstop/3Rtarget/40sessions;1bpfees eachside; two ordered slots/day preserveentrydayexits; stopfirstambiguousbar. vectorbtcashreturnreconciledwhenflat. Dailyproxy excludes15min/+2Rquartermanagement; adjustedbarsnotliveexecution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 L10 2025-01-01 slippage5bp = -4.5904461578265
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
{"L":10,"start":"2025-01-01","end":"2026-09-11","slip_bps":5,"return_pct":-4.5904461578265,"drawdown_pct":46.64823514152104,"win_rate_pct":33.33333333333333,"sample":15,"mean_pct":1.3701413015166903,"avgwin_pct":27.09602030066833,"avgloss_pct":11.492798198059129,"open":1,"targets":4,"entryday_exits":1,"buyhold_pct":185.57993730407523} Protocol2531; 2020warmup; nextopen2ADRstop/3Rtarget/40sessions;1bpfees eachside; two ordered slots/day preserveentrydayexits; stopfirstambiguousbar. vectorbtcashreturnreconciledwhenflat. Dailyproxy excludes15min/+2Rquartermanagement; adjustedbarsnotliveexecution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 L10 2021-01-01 slippage15bp = -77.08236320291697
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
{"L":10,"start":"2021-01-01","end":"2024-12-31","slip_bps":15,"return_pct":-77.08236320291697,"drawdown_pct":87.04557686897458,"win_rate_pct":20.833333333333336,"sample":24,"mean_pct":-5.660514991997001,"avgwin_pct":17.381039460146376,"avgloss_pct":11.724081953087365,"open":1,"targets":3,"entryday_exits":2,"buyhold_pct":-25.77881619937695} Protocol2531; 2020warmup; nextopen2ADRstop/3Rtarget/40sessions;1bpfees eachside; two ordered slots/day preserveentrydayexits; stopfirstambiguousbar. vectorbtcashreturnreconciledwhenflat. Dailyproxy excludes15min/+2Rquartermanagement; adjustedbarsnotliveexecution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 L10 2021-01-01 slippage5bp = -75.93145423578105
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
{"L":10,"start":"2021-01-01","end":"2024-12-31","slip_bps":5,"return_pct":-75.93145423578105,"drawdown_pct":86.59755274594092,"win_rate_pct":20.833333333333336,"sample":24,"mean_pct":-5.471647012350354,"avgwin_pct":17.616036712567045,"avgloss_pct":11.54735325574967,"open":1,"targets":3,"entryday_exits":2,"buyhold_pct":-25.77881619937695} Protocol2531; 2020warmup; nextopen2ADRstop/3Rtarget/40sessions;1bpfees eachside; two ordered slots/day preserveentrydayexits; stopfirstambiguousbar. vectorbtcashreturnreconciledwhenflat. Dailyproxy excludes15min/+2Rquartermanagement; adjustedbarsnotliveexecution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
TLX Late due-monitor primary status and contract eligibility = 0
Convex events2026-09-12 04:07
Sep12~04:05UTC checked April10original goalSep11 and currentnews index/search. No decision located; status UNKNOWN, not proofpending orCRL/delay. Alternate IRindexsafe-openfailed. Sep21–Oct16 query0contracts. Same-kind historicalstudyN0, no hurdle/optionedge computable, size0. Retrospective reviewof277late; absentprimarydecisionmeansretainunknown andhandoff.
https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/ ; option_contracts
Crisis-inclusive joint gap simulation = -14.651681012700644
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:07
{"individual":[{"symbol":"QQQ","n":2687,"worst_gap_pct":-9.457211188520331,"worst_date":"2020-03-16","p01_gap_pct":-2.5417955579341704,"calibration_n":2263,"later_n":424,"calibration_p01_gap_pct":-2.518128357009064,"later_below_calibration_p01":6,"later_below_calibration_p01_pct":1.4150943396226416,"stop_plus_double_worst_50bp_dollars":10.222341755519116},{"symbol":"IWM","n":2687,"worst_gap_pct":-9.301937207748834,"worst_date":"2020-03-16","p01_gap_pct":-2.593267816035804,"calibration_n":2263,"later_n":424,"calibration_p01_gap_pct":-2.5573182939595047,"later_below_calibration_p01":5,"later_below_calibration_p01_pct":1.179245283018868,"stop_plus_double_worst_50bp_dollars":10.046224398296404},{"symbol":"EFA","n":2687,"worst_gap_pct":-11.623511623511618,"worst_date":"2020-03-16","p01_gap_pct":-2.454582514001179,"calibration_n":2263,"later_n":424,"calibration_p01_gap_pct":-2.469520972051647,"later_below_calibration_p01":4,"later_below_calibration_p01_pct":0.9433962264150944,"stop_plus_double_worst_50bp_dollars":12.064398515998139}],"joint_n":2687,"worst_joint_dollars":-14.651681012700644,"worst_joint_date":"2020-03-16","gap_correlation":{"QQQ":{"QQQ":1,"IWM":0.8115197250523069,"EFA":0.7788104197066453},"IWM":{"QQQ":0.8115197250523069,"IWM":1,"EFA":0.8169406316518496},"EFA":{"QQQ":0.7788104197066453,"IWM":0.8169406316518496,"EFA":1}},"simulation_p95_max_loss_dollars":13.431428234944303,"simulation_p99_max_loss_dollars":17.969579733131003,"simulation_max_loss_dollars":17.969579733131003,"simulation_over3pct_fraction":0,"sum_individual_double_worst_stress_dollars":32.33296466981366}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=QQQ,IWM,EFA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=split&start=2016-01-01
EFA Crisis-inclusive opening-gap stress and chronological tail check = -11.623511623511618
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:07
Measured Sept12 2026. Expanded risk history2016–2026, target window remains fixed5years. Calibration2016–2024 vs later2025–Sept11 2026 is descriptive chronological check chosen after seeing current history, NOT pristine out-of-sample strategy test. {"symbol":"EFA","n":2687,"worst_gap_pct":-11.623511623511618,"worst_date":"2020-03-16","p01_gap_pct":-2.454582514001179,"calibration_n":2263,"later_n":424,"calibration_p01_gap_pct":-2.469520972051647,"later_below_calibration_p01":4,"later_below_calibration_p01_pct":0.9433962264150944,"stop_plus_double_worst_50bp_dollars":12.064398515998139}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EFA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=split&start=2016-01-01
IWM Crisis-inclusive opening-gap stress and chronological tail check = -9.301937207748834
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:07
Measured Sept12 2026. Expanded risk history2016–2026, target window remains fixed5years. Calibration2016–2024 vs later2025–Sept11 2026 is descriptive chronological check chosen after seeing current history, NOT pristine out-of-sample strategy test. {"symbol":"IWM","n":2687,"worst_gap_pct":-9.301937207748834,"worst_date":"2020-03-16","p01_gap_pct":-2.593267816035804,"calibration_n":2263,"later_n":424,"calibration_p01_gap_pct":-2.5573182939595047,"later_below_calibration_p01":5,"later_below_calibration_p01_pct":1.179245283018868,"stop_plus_double_worst_50bp_dollars":10.046224398296404}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=split&start=2016-01-01
QQQ Crisis-inclusive opening-gap stress and chronological tail check = -9.457211188520331
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:07
Measured Sept12 2026. Expanded risk history2016–2026, target window remains fixed5years. Calibration2016–2024 vs later2025–Sept11 2026 is descriptive chronological check chosen after seeing current history, NOT pristine out-of-sample strategy test. {"symbol":"QQQ","n":2687,"worst_gap_pct":-9.457211188520331,"worst_date":"2020-03-16","p01_gap_pct":-2.5417955579341704,"calibration_n":2263,"later_n":424,"calibration_p01_gap_pct":-2.518128357009064,"later_below_calibration_p01":6,"later_below_calibration_p01_pct":1.4150943396226416,"stop_plus_double_worst_50bp_dollars":10.222341755519116}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=QQQ&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=split&start=2016-01-01
NOK Cash flow and balance-sheet hard limits = -732
Convex events2026-09-12 04:06
IssuerJuly23Q2/H12026 fullreport pp7,14,13. Q2OCF-620mEUR; capexnet112m =>FCF-732m. H1OCF162m-capex266m=>FCF-104m, prior809m. Q2workingcapitaloutflow1150m. Netcash2776m excludesleases; Q1 3788m,down1012m/26.716%;totalcash5176m. Sharesexcludingtreasury5.598645bn,bookvalueEUR3.79/share asJune30. Paymenttiming and workingcapital canreverse, so onequartercashburnnotpermanentunit-loss proof; no exactfairvalue inferred.
https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/3f0c9c33-04b4-4498-b6d8-f6705ef358a8
NOK AI orders and technical guidance revision versus cash = 2800
Convex events2026-09-12 04:06
July23issuer Q2/H12026; direct management, promotional bias. AI/cloud ordersEUR2.8bn, roughlyhalf expectedrevenue within12months: derived1.4bn total/~116.7mpermonth averaged, NOTlinear guidance/paidcash. AI/cloudsales+105%,optical+20%. FY2.1–2.6bnOPrange raised.1bn from discontinuedbusinesspresentation, operationallyunchanged. Q3sales+3–7%qoq/OP roughlyflatQ2; supply constrainsdelivery. Restructuringcash700–800m/capex800–900m planned2026. Growth alone cannot establish earnings surprise.
https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporation-report-for-q2-and-half-year-2026/