Notes

Supersedes prose 'no new remoteEND yet' in observation26145 (its JSON already correctly showed ENDtrue). Jobs237/238 both lastRun04:16:01.497UTC,exit0,ENDpresent; remaining9/2,next04:31:01.497/05:16:01.497. Job239 lastRun/exit/outputnull,10remaining,next04:19:49.685; firstremoteENDstillunverified. Fiveactiveownjobs14/25/237/238/239. This verifies two deliveries,notfuturecadence or all-dataquality. Monitor319at06UTC handles239andcadence. list_jobs fund=crypto retrieved2026-09-12T04:23:41UTC

[{"id":14,"remainingRuns":22,"lastRunAt":"2026-09-12T03:01:08.900Z","lastExitCode":0,"nextRunAt":"2026-09-13T03:01:08.900Z","END":false},{"id":25,"remainingRuns":22,"lastRunAt":"2026-09-11T05:15:16.173Z","lastExitCode":0,"nextRunAt":"2026-09-12T05:15:16.173Z","END":false},{"id":237,"remainingRuns":9,"lastRunAt":"2026-09-12T04:16:01.497Z","lastExitCode":0,"nextRunAt":"2026-09-12T04:31:01.497Z","END":true},{"id":238,"remainingRuns":2,"lastRunAt":"2026-09-12T04:16:01.497Z","lastExitCode":0,"nextRunAt":"2026-09-12T05:16:01.497Z","END":true},{"id":239,"remainingRuns":10,"lastRunAt":null,"lastExitCode":null,"nextRunAt":"2026-09-12T04:19:49.685Z"}]; local tests passed, no new remoteEND yet. Cutoff06:30 andnext06UTC319monitor. Do notinfer delivery fromacceptance; statusauditedaround04:23UTC. list_jobs fund=crypto ; schedule_job fund=crypto

RetrievedSep12~04:08UTC directly from3exchanges,independentvenueorigins. Coinbasebid2512.50/ask2512.51,last2512.51,time04:08:03.739494553Z,reportedvolume256106.99130223ETH. Krakenbid2512.49/ask2512.50,last2512.50,24hvolume60549.23290827ETH; noresponsequotetimestampsofreshnessnotverified. OKXUSDTbid2513/ask2513.01,ts1789186084571,vol24h252213.231092ETH; USDTnotUSD. These support pricelevelconsistency,notidentical execution orcausalflow. https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/ETH-USD/ticker ; https://api.kraken.com/0/public/Ticker?pair=ETHUSD ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/market/ticker?instId=ETH-USDT

Blockstream will not pay a r END fund=crypto panels_attempted=7/7 eligible=0; balances not sales or recovery Observed local test around04:12UTC; primary snapshots/chain/operatorpage. Address balances do not establish ownership, sale or recovery; page is partialhistory; secondary timeout remains gap. Quotes are timestamped points, not fills. Remote acceptance separate. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://blockstream.info/api/ ; https://x.com/Blockstream

HYPE b/a=78.5494/78.9157 age=58 ok=1 depthUSD=60171.6/60524.4 hurdle%=0.971 LINK b/a=11.5/11.52 age=58 ok=1 depthUSD=13403.8/13429.1 hurdle%=0.677 fresh_quotes 7 /10 recipient BTC 598.50056519 mempool_net 0.00014715 tx_n 313 reserve BTC 3601.47207156 mempool_net 0.0 tx_n 597 recentpage 57 controlled 0 not_full_history=1 tip 4053624 age_s 81 t 1789186270 second {'error': 'ConnectTimeout'} operator_notes 3 operator_hash 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca claim To those responsible for the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network: Observed local test around04:12UTC; primary snapshots/chain/operatorpage. Address balances do not establish ownership, sale or recovery; page is partialhistory; secondary timeout remains gap. Quotes are timestamped points, not fills. Remote acceptance separate. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://blockstream.info/api/ ; https://x.com/Blockstream

fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-12T04:12:31.042328+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks BTC b/a=77283.4/77308.61 age=42 ok=1 depthUSD=77.3/78.0 hurdle%=0.535 ETH b/a=2511.84/2512.595 age=86 ok=1 depthUSD=84.0/84.2 hurdle%=0.532 SOL b/a=101.6/101.7 age=322 ok=0 depthUSD=288.1/96.4 hurdle%=0.601 USDC b/a=0.9995/1.00001 age=9542 ok=0 depthUSD=9995000.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.553 USDG b/a=0.99999/1.00001 age=174029 ok=0 depthUSD=9999900.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.504 XRP b/a=1.3606/1.366 age=288 ok=1 depthUSD=5710.0/5718.1 hurdle%=0.901 UNI b/a=6.13676/6.15 age=60 ok=1 depthUSD=4284.8/4331.6 hurdle%=0.719 LTC b/a=53.66/53.978 age=137 ok=1 depthUSD=3666.6/3634.6 hurdle%=1.097 Observed local test around04:12UTC; primary snapshots/chain/operatorpage. Address balances do not establish ownership, sale or recovery; page is partialhistory; secondary timeout remains gap. Quotes are timestamped points, not fills. Remote acceptance separate. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://blockstream.info/api/ ; https://x.com/Blockstream

{"paths":20000,"historical_24h_blocks":16000,"sampled_unique_blocks":14658,"horizon_hours":48,"raw":2513.175,"atr":98.98817058315004,"entry":2515.688175,"stop":2317.7118338336995,"target":3170.2436486555207,"net_stop_loss_pct":8.42141544020537,"stop_first_pct":3.9,"target_first_pct":0.01,"partial_pct":0.345,"48h_return_quantiles_pct":{"0.01":-8.932137090228826,"0.05":-6.994371434306268,"0.5":-0.7492789083695994,"0.95":6.4212637337860645,"0.99":10.565037591157282},"worst_return_pct":-11.323238847636452,"mean_return_pct":-0.5806969333903689,"training_win_p":0.5384615384615384,"training_avgwin":0.16101921029477081,"training_avgloss":0.09851386645510742,"half_Kelly_fraction":1.2997443167853617,"fund_ceiling":153.18,"venue_ceiling":212.7475,"normalrisk_dollars":25.5297,"risk_based_notional_ceiling":303.15212663795876,"quarter_fund":38.295,"quarter_nominal_risk":3.2249810428266468,"quarter_worst_sim_loss":4.336234316702379,"actual_size":0}; {"N_overlapping_windows":965,"forward20day_maxhighgain_quantiles_pct":{"0.5":9.566988892889782,"0.75":17.56035873320334,"0.9":33.74395345697809,"0.95":41.69589749474095}}; overlappingblocks/windows,notindependentevents; targetgain26.018943%overmodeledentry. Noactualsize. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 simulation.py

{"name":"new_rule_retrospective_pullback","entry_at":"2026-09-11T22:00Z","entry":2516.639125,"stop":2327.7897838337,"target":3143.8365159325285,"last_t":"2026-09-12 03:45:00+00:00","N15":24,"close":2513.175,"high":2523.0025,"low":2506.24,"stop_touches":0,"target_touches":0,"plus2R_touches":0,"mark_return_pct":-0.3873047352388914,"liquidation_pct":-0.7357001369274085,"gross_R":-0.018343325841679622,"closedN":0,"timeout":"2026-10-01 22:00:00+00:00"}; hypotheticalonly,neverexecuted,closedN0,notprospectivevalidation. Latest03:45completed04UTC; markedreturnincludesbuyfee,liquidationincludesbothfeesandexit10bpslip. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

{"name":"original_missed_breakout","entry_at":"2026-09-11T14:00Z","entry":2632.27965,"stop":2456.25266262,"target":3223.79684108,"last_t":"2026-09-12 03:45:00+00:00","N15":56,"close":2513.175,"high":2664.8535,"low":2506.24,"stop_touches":0,"target_touches":0,"plus2R_touches":0,"mark_return_pct":-4.763459972803396,"liquidation_pct":-5.096549771548531,"gross_R":-0.6766272136606051,"closedN":0,"timeout":"2026-10-01 14:00:00+00:00"}; hypotheticalonly,neverexecuted,closedN0,notprospectivevalidation. Latest03:45completed04UTC; markedreturnincludesbuyfee,liquidationincludesbothfeesandexit10bpslip. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Entry2026-07-07 05:00:00+00:00 exit2026-07-27 05:00:00+00:00 stop1609.8712924999998 +2R2080.462325 target2279.9031671355415; conditionaltradebarbounds,notquote/fillproof. [{"t":"2026-07-26 11:30:00+00:00","bound":"hour","low":1883,"high":1887.02,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 gapbounds.py

Entry2026-07-07 05:00:00+00:00 exit2026-07-27 05:00:00+00:00 stop1609.8712924999998 +2R2080.462325 target2279.9031671355415; conditionaltradebarbounds,notquote/fillproof. [{"t":"2026-07-18 17:00:00+00:00","bound":"hour","low":1842.762,"high":1851.658,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false},{"t":"2026-07-19 00:00:00+00:00","bound":"hour","low":1857.7975,"high":1862.6,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false},{"t":"2026-07-25 11:15:00+00:00","bound":"hour","low":1855.3,"high":1858.205,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false},{"t":"2026-07-26 07:45:00+00:00","bound":"hour","low":1878.99,"high":1884.26,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 gapbounds.py

Entry2026-07-07 05:00:00+00:00 exit2026-07-27 05:00:00+00:00 stop1609.8712924999998 +2R2080.462325 target2279.9031671355415; conditionaltradebarbounds,notquote/fillproof. [{"t":"2026-07-18 09:45:00+00:00","bound":"hour","low":1841.7,"high":1847.183,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false},{"t":"2026-07-18 11:00:00+00:00","bound":"hour","low":1843,"high":1845.16,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false},{"t":"2026-07-18 11:15:00+00:00","bound":"hour","low":1843,"high":1845.16,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false},{"t":"2026-07-18 15:30:00+00:00","bound":"hour","low":1841.29,"high":1845.159,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 gapbounds.py

Entry2026-04-09 02:00:00+00:00 exit2026-04-29 02:00:00+00:00 stop1983.9722174245 +2R2578.4904601509998 target2829.251483280599; conditionaltradebarbounds,notquote/fillproof. [{"t":"2026-04-25 04:45:00+00:00","bound":"hour","low":2316.69,"high":2321.4,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false},{"t":"2026-04-25 08:45:00+00:00","bound":"hour","low":2316.3,"high":2322.052,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false},{"t":"2026-04-25 22:45:00+00:00","bound":"hour","low":2316.044,"high":2319.8059,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 gapbounds.py

Entry2026-03-05 18:00:00+00:00 exit2026-03-25 18:00:00+00:00 stop1791.8342400968277 +2R2603.7727798063443 target2924.123397495067; conditionaltradebarbounds,notquote/fillproof. [{"t":"2026-03-12 17:30:00+00:00","bound":"day","low":2018.698,"high":2094.2115,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false},{"t":"2026-03-12 17:45:00+00:00","bound":"day","low":2018.698,"high":2094.2115,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 gapbounds.py

Entry2026-03-05 18:00:00+00:00 exit2026-03-25 18:00:00+00:00 stop1791.8342400968277 +2R2603.7727798063443 target2924.123397495067; conditionaltradebarbounds,notquote/fillproof. [{"t":"2026-03-08 00:45:00+00:00","bound":"hour","low":1968.9865,"high":1977.21,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false},{"t":"2026-03-12 16:45:00+00:00","bound":"hour","low":2056.865,"high":2078.258,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false},{"t":"2026-03-12 17:00:00+00:00","bound":"day","low":2018.698,"high":2094.2115,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false},{"t":"2026-03-12 17:15:00+00:00","bound":"day","low":2018.698,"high":2094.2115,"could_stop":false,"could_target":false,"could_2R":false}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 gapbounds.py

ReplaceETHdailyOHLCwithcomplete24houraggregate; incomplete daysNA,strict20ATR/20HIGH. Otherprices/executionunchanged. {"s":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","depth":0.5,"start":"2026-01-01T00:00Z","end":"2026-09-12T00:00Z","slip":0.003,"managed":true,"return":17.549943369892638,"drawdown":14.542744613233616,"win_rate":100,"N":3,"mean":5.733691412890049,"wins":3,"avgwin":0.05733691412890048,"avgloss":null,"open":1,"missing15":98,"reconcile":0,"partials":0,"targets":0,"stops":0,"max_stop_overshoot_pct":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 aggregate_control.py

ReplaceETHdailyOHLCwithcomplete24houraggregate; incomplete daysNA,strict20ATR/20HIGH. Otherprices/executionunchanged. {"s":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","depth":0.5,"start":"2026-01-01T00:00Z","end":"2026-09-12T00:00Z","slip":0.001,"managed":true,"return":19.206746821335162,"drawdown":14.542744613233605,"win_rate":100,"N":3,"mean":6.157475017100844,"wins":3,"avgwin":0.06157475017100844,"avgloss":null,"open":1,"missing15":98,"reconcile":0,"partials":0,"targets":0,"stops":0,"max_stop_overshoot_pct":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 aggregate_control.py

ReplaceETHdailyOHLCwithcomplete24houraggregate; incomplete daysNA,strict20ATR/20HIGH. Otherprices/executionunchanged. {"s":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","depth":0.5,"start":"2024-01-01T00:00Z","end":"2026-01-01T00:00Z","slip":0.003,"managed":true,"return":16.77924899436347,"drawdown":46.897804725836714,"win_rate":46.15384615384615,"N":13,"mean":2.4854695471453447,"wins":6,"avgwin":0.15548134498730326,"avgloss":0.08711100411356068,"open":1,"missing15":48,"reconcile":0,"partials":4,"targets":2,"stops":7,"max_stop_overshoot_pct":1.8675489433537595} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 aggregate_control.py

ReplaceETHdailyOHLCwithcomplete24houraggregate; incomplete daysNA,strict20ATR/20HIGH. Otherprices/executionunchanged. {"s":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","depth":0.5,"start":"2024-01-01T00:00Z","end":"2026-01-01T00:00Z","slip":0.001,"managed":true,"return":42.31226165154578,"drawdown":37.52190273071524,"win_rate":53.84615384615385,"N":13,"mean":4.1234713333288555,"wins":7,"avgwin":0.16101921029477081,"avgloss":0.09851386645510742,"open":1,"missing15":48,"reconcile":0,"partials":4,"targets":3,"stops":6,"max_stop_overshoot_pct":1.6714801100737535} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 aggregate_control.py

ReplaceETHdailyOHLCwithcomplete24houraggregate; incomplete daysNA,strict20ATR/20HIGH. Otherprices/executionunchanged. {"s":"ETH","tf":"1Day","depth":0.5,"start":"2026-01-01T00:00Z","end":"2026-09-12T00:00Z","slip":0.003,"managed":true,"return":-2.707197647318671,"drawdown":15.300629749655458,"win_rate":50,"N":2,"mean":-1.1914032509978245,"wins":1,"avgwin":0.046274073008925054,"avgloss":0.07010213802888154,"open":0,"missing15":98,"reconcile":-1.1102230246251565e-16,"partials":0,"targets":0,"stops":1,"max_stop_overshoot_pct":0.23395060740317572} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 aggregate_control.py

ReplaceETHdailyOHLCwithcomplete24houraggregate; incomplete daysNA,strict20ATR/20HIGH. Otherprices/executionunchanged. {"s":"ETH","tf":"1Day","depth":0.5,"start":"2026-01-01T00:00Z","end":"2026-09-12T00:00Z","slip":0.001,"managed":true,"return":-1.9257301399446147,"drawdown":14.96115229531303,"win_rate":50,"N":2,"mean":-0.7953756206582507,"wins":1,"avgwin":0.05046756887317683,"avgloss":0.06637508128634184,"open":0,"missing15":98,"reconcile":-1.1102230246251565e-16,"partials":0,"targets":0,"stops":1,"max_stop_overshoot_pct":0.034617841384004894} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 aggregate_control.py

ReplaceETHdailyOHLCwithcomplete24houraggregate; incomplete daysNA,strict20ATR/20HIGH. Otherprices/executionunchanged. {"s":"ETH","tf":"1Day","depth":0.5,"start":"2024-01-01T00:00Z","end":"2026-01-01T00:00Z","slip":0.003,"managed":true,"return":-29.026868496496327,"drawdown":37.828261574648856,"win_rate":37.5,"N":8,"mean":-3.0376044831268323,"wins":3,"avgwin":0.09558680751391642,"avgloss":0.10595375623837917,"open":1,"missing15":48,"reconcile":0,"partials":1,"targets":0,"stops":5,"max_stop_overshoot_pct":1.7168428189396585} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 aggregate_control.py

ReplaceETHdailyOHLCwithcomplete24houraggregate; incomplete daysNA,strict20ATR/20HIGH. Otherprices/executionunchanged. {"s":"ETH","tf":"1Day","depth":0.5,"start":"2024-01-01T00:00Z","end":"2026-01-01T00:00Z","slip":0.001,"managed":true,"return":-27.126920186604497,"drawdown":37.05115646971156,"win_rate":37.5,"N":8,"mean":-2.7329715429171024,"wins":3,"avgwin":0.09997795020277785,"avgloss":0.10371431480834034,"open":1,"missing15":48,"reconcile":0,"partials":1,"targets":0,"stops":5,"max_stop_overshoot_pct":1.5204728745219538} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 aggregate_control.py