Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
GLD 08UTC completed daily signal and proposed allocation = 18.94350653224364
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 08:03
{"symbol":"GLD","n":1579,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.77,"return_pct":18.94350653224364,"sma200":415.93449999999996,"above":false,"atr20":7.952445000000003,"p90_pct":16.781703911009302,"stop":382.86510999999996,"target":465.69040068593176,"source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars","rank":null,"notional":0} Measured Sep12; ETF SIP adjustment=all total-return proxy; 252 intervals, crypto365; SMA200 arithmetic; ATR20 simple true-range mean; P90 rolling60 endpoints last5years. Proposed only; actual order0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EEM 08UTC completed daily signal and proposed allocation = 34.203758654797234
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 08:03
{"symbol":"EEM","n":1579,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":67.84,"return_pct":34.203758654797234,"sma200":61.760349999999995,"above":true,"atr20":0.9526399999999988,"p90_pct":10.717963493264469,"stop":65.93472,"target":75.11106643383062,"source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars","rank":1,"notional":0} Measured Sep12; ETF SIP adjustment=all total-return proxy; 252 intervals, crypto365; SMA200 arithmetic; ATR20 simple true-range mean; P90 rolling60 endpoints last5years. Proposed only; actual order0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EFA 08UTC completed daily signal and proposed allocation = 19.45812807881775
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 08:03
{"symbol":"EFA","n":1579,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.7,"return_pct":19.45812807881775,"sma200":100.67334999999999,"above":true,"atr20":0.8808699999999987,"p90_pct":9.630282889112697,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars","rank":4,"notional":73.76} Measured Sep12; ETF SIP adjustment=all total-return proxy; 252 intervals, crypto365; SMA200 arithmetic; ATR20 simple true-range mean; P90 rolling60 endpoints last5years. Proposed only; actual order0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
IWM 08UTC completed daily signal and proposed allocation = 23.457264957264947
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 08:03
{"symbol":"IWM","n":1579,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":288.89,"return_pct":23.457264957264947,"sma200":273.16515,"above":true,"atr20":3.070524999999995,"p90_pct":12.823844643545982,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars","rank":3,"notional":73.75} Measured Sep12; ETF SIP adjustment=all total-return proxy; 252 intervals, crypto365; SMA200 arithmetic; ATR20 simple true-range mean; P90 rolling60 endpoints last5years. Proposed only; actual order0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
QQQ 08UTC completed daily signal and proposed allocation = 23.69878183831673
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 08:03
{"symbol":"QQQ","n":1579,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":714.88,"return_pct":23.69878183831673,"sma200":659.2565,"above":true,"atr20":7.868424999999997,"p90_pct":16.16958533244174,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars","rank":2,"notional":73.75} Measured Sep12; ETF SIP adjustment=all total-return proxy; 252 intervals, crypto365; SMA200 arithmetic; ATR20 simple true-range mean; P90 rolling60 endpoints last5years. Proposed only; actual order0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY 08UTC completed daily signal and proposed allocation = 18.489062524223687
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 08:03
{"symbol":"SPY","n":1579,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":764.29,"return_pct":18.489062524223687,"sma200":712.0451999999999,"above":true,"atr20":5.452859999999982,"p90_pct":10.842338318374644,"stop":753.38428,"target":847.1569075335055,"source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars","rank":5,"notional":0} Measured Sep12; ETF SIP adjustment=all total-return proxy; 252 intervals, crypto365; SMA200 arithmetic; ATR20 simple true-range mean; P90 rolling60 endpoints last5years. Proposed only; actual order0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
TCOM July25 penalty announcement recovered; amounts and remedies absent
Convex events2026-09-12 08:03
RetrievedSep12~08:07UTC. IssuerJuly25 states receipt and acceptance of SAMR administrative penalty and planned rectification; original contains no fine amount/detailed remedies. July27 08ET call was scheduled. Supersedes 'full issuer release unrecovered' in24055, does not establish full regulator terms. Issuer is interested party, not independent regulator. No probability or cash adjustment inferred. https://investors.trip.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tripcom-group-sincerely-accepts-administrative-penalty-decision
C91206 remote job242 actual receipt = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-12 06:18
{"lastRun":"2026-09-12T06:16:02.675Z","nextRun":"2026-09-12T06:31:02.675Z","remaining":19} fund=crypto research-only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-12T06:16:07.038624+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars {"s":"BTC","hour":"2026-09-12T05:00:00+00:00","c":77199.993,"high480":82233.502538071,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"ETH","hour":"2026-09-12T05:00:00+00:00","c":2511.935,"high480":2664.8535,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":["2026-09-11T14:00:00+00:00"],"eligible":0} ETH_PULLBACK_EVENT_WATCH {"events72h":[{"breakout":"2026-09-11T14:00:00+00:00","pullback_available":"2026-09-11T22:00:00+00:00","trigger":2518.687664708425,"close":2515.682}],"armed":"None","eligible":0,"note":"event detector; excludes portfolio occupancy and earlier arms; no late-entry or order authorization"} {"s":"SOL","hour":"2026-09-12T05:00:00+00:00","c":101.6,"high480":110.5357,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"LTC","hour":"2026-09-12T05:00:00+00:00","c":53.82085,"high480":59.34355,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"XRP","hour":"2026-09-12T05:00:00+00:00","c":1.36405,"high480":1.54995,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"HYPE","hour":"2026-09-12T05:00:00+00:00","c":78.61,"high480":89.9954713195,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"LINK","hour":"2026-09-12T05:00:00+00:00","c":11.5088,"high480":13.677,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} {"s":"UNI","hour":"2026-09-12T05:00:00+00:00","c":6.22845,"high480":7.4795,"ok":true,"signal":false,"recent_available":[],"eligible":0} END fund=crypto entry watch; observations only, no orders https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
C91206 remote job241 actual receipt = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-12 06:18
{"lastRun":"2026-09-12T06:16:02.675Z","nextRun":"2026-09-12T07:16:02.675Z","remaining":4} fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-12T06:16:06.837767+00:00 source=https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time offset_s=0.0631 uncertainty_s=0.1011 source=https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest {"s":"BTC","ts":["1789193713603","1789193767469"],"age":[54.0,0.1],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":0.8101,"settled_bp":0.3247,"oi_coin":27390.807} {"s":"ETH","ts":["1789193713645","1789193767471"],"age":[53.9,0.1],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":0.8031,"settled_bp":0.2743,"oi_coin":631552.763} {"s":"SOL","ts":["1789193714597","1789193767472"],"age":[53.0,0.1],"fresh":true,"funding_bp":0.7783,"settled_bp":0.6055,"oi_coin":2777217.88} source=https://www.circle.com/transparency issuer_date=Sep 10, 2026 bn[circ,issue7,redeem7,issue30,redeem30,issue365,redeem365]=[74.06, 6.66, 6.91, 38.06, 36.04, 334.68, 332.88] source=https://www.usdc.com/ raw_cms_value=UNPARSED issuer_date=UNPARSED NO_FLOW_INFERENCE locale/template ambiguity source=https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 {"ts":1789171200,"circulating":74462450366.86803,"Ethereum":[1789171200,46937295105.4],"Solana":[1789171200,7264902091.29],"Hyperliquid L1":[1789171200,6807735438.36]} END crypto collection; definitions/cutoffs differ; flow is not buying; eligible=0 https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2
C91206 remote job240 actual receipt = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-12 06:18
{"lastRun":"2026-09-12T06:16:02.675Z","nextRun":"2026-09-12T06:31:02.675Z","remaining":19} fund=crypto research only eligible=0 observed=2026-09-12T06:16:47.038753+00:00 src=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks BTC b/a=77190.4/77220.552 age=40 ok=1 depthUSD=76.5/76.6 hurdle%=0.541 ETH b/a=2510.07/2510.6 age=60 ok=1 depthUSD=83.3/84.0 hurdle%=0.523 SOL b/a=101.5/101.536 age=157 ok=1 depthUSD=95.6/95.5 hurdle%=0.538 USDC b/a=0.9995/1.00001 age=729 ok=0 depthUSD=9995000.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.553 USDG b/a=0.99999/1.00001 age=181485 ok=0 depthUSD=9999900.0/10000100.0 hurdle%=0.504 XRP b/a=1.359/1.36507 age=574 ok=0 depthUSD=5687.8/5691.0 hurdle%=0.951 UNI b/a=6.20857/6.22119 age=42 ok=1 depthUSD=4379.5/4345.3 hurdle%=0.706 LTC b/a=53.53/53.88 age=139 ok=1 depthUSD=3630.4/3678.4 hurdle%=1.159 HYPE b/a=78.42/78.8285 age=177 ok=1 depthUSD=60868.0/61375.9 hurdle%=1.025 LINK b/a=11.5016/11.5225 age=40 ok=1 depthUSD=13225.7/13232.8 hurdle%=0.685 fresh_quotes 7 /10 recipient BTC 598.50057179 mempool_net 0.00014715 tx_n 315 reserve BTC 3601.47207156 mempool_net 0.0 tx_n 597 recentpage 57 controlled 0 not_full_history=1 tip 4053748 age_s 97 t 1789193710 second {'error': 'ConnectTimeout'} operator_notes 3 operator_hash 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca claim To those responsible for the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network: Blockstream will not pay a r END fund=crypto panels_attempted=7/7 eligible=0; balances not sales or recovery https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://x.com/Blockstream
C91206 remote job14 actual receipt = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-12 06:18
{"lastRun":"2026-09-12T03:01:08.900Z","nextRun":"2026-09-13T03:01:08.900Z","remaining":22} RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0 published USD inventory, not live Assets; present 36 /36 incomplete7days USDG signals ETH Source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars 7 completed UTC days; rank includes stablecoins USDC vol7=$10367949 days=7/7 close=0.999755 prior20=1.000005 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 USDG vol7=$1899981 days=2/7 close=1 prior20=None signal=0 lastday_zero=0 BTC vol7=$677156 days=7/7 close=77212.832 prior20=81269.4915 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 ETH vol7=$459605 days=7/7 close=2516.066 prior20=2515.445 signal=1 lastday_zero=0 LTC vol7=$254429 days=7/7 close=53.27 prior20=55.20535 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 XRP vol7=$199205 days=7/7 close=1.35664 prior20=1.51966 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 SOL vol7=$192379 days=7/7 close=102.4335 prior20=109.15 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 HYPE vol7=$150543 days=7/7 close=79.4395 prior20=87.96325 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 LINK vol7=$146046 days=7/7 close=11.5477 prior20=13.2346 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 UNI vol7=$107781 days=7/7 close=6.0076 prior20=7.294845 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
FTK R91206 final FTK collector remote receipt verified = 3
Supply chain2026-09-12 06:18
At06:17:43query,list_jobs236returnedlastRun06:16:02.675,stdout06:16:22.656,exit0,END3/3. FTKlatestSep9 8K000092805426000087/ACDCAug6 10Q000119312526337969 andFTKIRSep9/Sep18August/Aug4linksunchanged from04:16. This supersedes pending06:16receipt in2952/monitor323; not proofnoothernews orpaidcash. Replacement243acceptedbutlastRun/outputnull atsamecheck. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000928054.json
VIST R91206 collector local test and broader supply receipt = 76.27
Supply chain2026-09-12 06:17
Local06:15:55END6/6exit0: VISTSep11SIPclose76.27/prior20 78.95/SMA50 68.254/ADR2.822,signal0; SWKS88.35signal1/HWM229.61signal0/CCJ96.68signal0 already26168-71. SECindexlist VISTSep8 6K0001193125-26-384346; SWKSSep11 4250001104659-26-106992; CCJJul31 6K0001193125-26-327250; ALMAug17 6K0001493152-26-038655. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK{10digitCIK}.json locatedfullfilings; metadataonly notreadnewbusinessclaims. Replacement243accepted aftercancel226; remoteENDpending. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
R91206 data provenance batch 4 = 1
Supply chain2026-09-12 06:17
[{"symbol":"STNG","adjustment":"split","rows":1682,"first":"2020-01-02T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-11T04:00:00Z","sha256":"5e9426f0a7e6ae32ccdc6aa71bfbf942ca905ab2dff198bc056cc141a84385c6","source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars"}]. DownloadedSep12~06:03UTC;start2020-01-01,endSep11T23:40,1Day,SIP,paginateuntilno token; rawJSONsha snapshots. PositiveOHLC anduniquedatesasserted forbacktestednames; no15mincoverageclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
R91206 data provenance batch 3 = 3
Supply chain2026-09-12 06:17
[{"symbol":"CCJ","adjustment":"all","rows":1682,"first":"2020-01-02T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-11T04:00:00Z","sha256":"eec6b6b8b5160003c2c38640f0d9d7a79299dbe3e87399b4d3f28b733e1388cc","source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars"},{"symbol":"FTK","adjustment":"all","rows":1682,"first":"2020-01-02T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-11T04:00:00Z","sha256":"4bc1478fea6921eb9bfd68178691598d358de170f63f12d05c6304f80817e8e3","source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars"},{"symbol":"FRO","adjustment":"split","rows":1682,"first":"2020-01-02T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-11T04:00:00Z","sha256":"106436db9eb9f2cb65b0ceb09edb80ba5de0f7330e8ce45f81587707cc20c658","source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars"}]. DownloadedSep12~06:03UTC;start2020-01-01,endSep11T23:40,1Day,SIP,paginateuntilno token; rawJSONsha snapshots. PositiveOHLC anduniquedatesasserted forbacktestednames; no15mincoverageclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
R91206 data provenance batch 2 = 3
Supply chain2026-09-12 06:17
[{"symbol":"HWM","adjustment":"all","rows":1620,"first":"2020-04-01T04:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-11T04:00:00Z","sha256":"c5c3e5876019817f856e38280f2a9dc7ceaeff63fbd516fc82c5ee92e0a38f4c","source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars"},{"symbol":"LPG","adjustment":"all","rows":1682,"first":"2020-01-02T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-11T04:00:00Z","sha256":"3614a6084827ba720804a47a09bec195b6fd4f4ccb1219651b6b8e1ca4780e91","source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars"},{"symbol":"SWKS","adjustment":"all","rows":1682,"first":"2020-01-02T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-11T04:00:00Z","sha256":"6b846b0826873cb4f59621a55365a62fc9adfadfa3d32ee12ad9f3980ae36a7f","source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars"}]. DownloadedSep12~06:03UTC;start2020-01-01,endSep11T23:40,1Day,SIP,paginateuntilno token; rawJSONsha snapshots. PositiveOHLC anduniquedatesasserted forbacktestednames; no15mincoverageclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
R91206 data provenance batch 1 = 3
Supply chain2026-09-12 06:17
[{"symbol":"FRO","adjustment":"all","rows":1682,"first":"2020-01-02T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-11T04:00:00Z","sha256":"1ae8275975e70c6eb883ae55ca9539f1dd7c190d9a4eef9a8fc725787a7c171a","source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars"},{"symbol":"STNG","adjustment":"all","rows":1682,"first":"2020-01-02T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-11T04:00:00Z","sha256":"cdd4d32a9f70f527bda8a390416eeeff8bda9dd6c679c0ccc601ba1cf0344c3a","source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars"},{"symbol":"SPY","adjustment":"all","rows":1682,"first":"2020-01-02T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-11T04:00:00Z","sha256":"19c3e99a6599a4ad37510ac3f3051491502930e74d75c98573ebd8917ec0a315","source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars"}]. DownloadedSep12~06:03UTC;start2020-01-01,endSep11T23:40,1Day,SIP,paginateuntilno token; rawJSONsha snapshots. PositiveOHLC anduniquedatesasserted forbacktestednames; no15mincoverageclaim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SOL/USD C91206 hourly comparator fractional-return halfKelly = 1.2130074682550123
Crypto majors2026-09-12 06:17
{"s":"SOL","tf":"hourly","n":8,"win_probability":0.5,"mean_win_pct":9.7409270625,"mean_loss_pct":6.61463454,"raw_halfKelly_fraction":1.2130074682550123,"capped_notional":153.18,"quarter_fund_ceiling":38.295,"actual_size":0} Trainingclosedtradefractionsfromfrozen20high/10lowcomparator,fees25bp/slip10bp;f=.5*(p/meanLoss-(1-p)/meanWin). cap=min153.18fund,212.7475venue,max0f*850.99;quarterfund38.295illustrationnotorder. Two-pointmeanpayoffapproximation,smallN,unboundedtailrisk,nouncertaintyadjustment;cannottransferKellytomanagedpullback. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
SOL/USD C91206 daily comparator fractional-return halfKelly = -0.9375623540945859
Crypto majors2026-09-12 06:17
{"s":"SOL","tf":"daily","n":7,"win_probability":0.42857142857142855,"mean_win_pct":7.507977063333334,"mean_loss_pct":7.471832152499999,"raw_halfKelly_fraction":-0.9375623540945859,"capped_notional":0,"quarter_fund_ceiling":38.295,"actual_size":0} Trainingclosedtradefractionsfromfrozen20high/10lowcomparator,fees25bp/slip10bp;f=.5*(p/meanLoss-(1-p)/meanWin). cap=min153.18fund,212.7475venue,max0f*850.99;quarterfund38.295illustrationnotorder. Two-pointmeanpayoffapproximation,smallN,unboundedtailrisk,nouncertaintyadjustment;cannottransferKellytomanagedpullback. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
ETH/USD C91206 hourly comparator fractional-return halfKelly = 0.526680497585162
Crypto majors2026-09-12 06:17
{"s":"ETH","tf":"hourly","n":14,"win_probability":0.42857142857142855,"mean_win_pct":22.08310485333333,"mean_loss_pct":11.770742695,"raw_halfKelly_fraction":0.526680497585162,"capped_notional":153.18,"quarter_fund_ceiling":38.295,"actual_size":0} Trainingclosedtradefractionsfromfrozen20high/10lowcomparator,fees25bp/slip10bp;f=.5*(p/meanLoss-(1-p)/meanWin). cap=min153.18fund,212.7475venue,max0f*850.99;quarterfund38.295illustrationnotorder. Two-pointmeanpayoffapproximation,smallN,unboundedtailrisk,nouncertaintyadjustment;cannottransferKellytomanagedpullback. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
ETH/USD C91206 daily comparator fractional-return halfKelly = -0.3381178214971712
Crypto majors2026-09-12 06:17
{"s":"ETH","tf":"daily","n":12,"win_probability":0.4166666666666667,"mean_win_pct":14.580065347999998,"mean_loss_pct":12.532606384285714,"raw_halfKelly_fraction":-0.3381178214971712,"capped_notional":0,"quarter_fund_ceiling":38.295,"actual_size":0} Trainingclosedtradefractionsfromfrozen20high/10lowcomparator,fees25bp/slip10bp;f=.5*(p/meanLoss-(1-p)/meanWin). cap=min153.18fund,212.7475venue,max0f*850.99;quarterfund38.295illustrationnotorder. Two-pointmeanpayoffapproximation,smallN,unboundedtailrisk,nouncertaintyadjustment;cannottransferKellytomanagedpullback. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
BTC/USD C91206 hourly comparator fractional-return halfKelly = 1.0404907651405366
Crypto majors2026-09-12 06:17
{"s":"BTC","tf":"hourly","n":13,"win_probability":0.3076923076923077,"mean_win_pct":25.656397485,"mean_loss_pct":6.437934371111111,"raw_halfKelly_fraction":1.0404907651405366,"capped_notional":153.18,"quarter_fund_ceiling":38.295,"actual_size":0} Trainingclosedtradefractionsfromfrozen20high/10lowcomparator,fees25bp/slip10bp;f=.5*(p/meanLoss-(1-p)/meanWin). cap=min153.18fund,212.7475venue,max0f*850.99;quarterfund38.295illustrationnotorder. Two-pointmeanpayoffapproximation,smallN,unboundedtailrisk,nouncertaintyadjustment;cannottransferKellytomanagedpullback. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
BTC/USD C91206 daily comparator fractional-return halfKelly = 1.0249486196263706
Crypto majors2026-09-12 06:17
{"s":"BTC","tf":"daily","n":10,"win_probability":0.3,"mean_win_pct":31.267138916666664,"mean_loss_pct":6.995176647142857,"raw_halfKelly_fraction":1.0249486196263706,"capped_notional":153.18,"quarter_fund_ceiling":38.295,"actual_size":0} Trainingclosedtradefractionsfromfrozen20high/10lowcomparator,fees25bp/slip10bp;f=.5*(p/meanLoss-(1-p)/meanWin). cap=min153.18fund,212.7475venue,max0f*850.99;quarterfund38.295illustrationnotorder. Two-pointmeanpayoffapproximation,smallN,unboundedtailrisk,nouncertaintyadjustment;cannottransferKellytomanagedpullback. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
SOL/USD C91206 BTC contemporaneous regression holdout = 1.2056070462218178
Crypto majors2026-09-12 06:17
{"s":"SOL","period":"holdout","n":252,"correlation":0.8789011688485111,"beta":1.2056070462218178,"daily_intercept_pct":0.00007645548671838688,"beta_block_ci":[1.1179515608264896,1.328143983580368],"intercept_block_ci_pct":[-0.21705187849695462,0.19717917432477083],"vol_ann_pct":63.79144539093395} Coherentdailyclosepctreturns2024-25train/2026throughSep11holdout;OLSconstant+BTCreturn. 2000ten-observationmovingblockbootstrapseed912064;pairwisemissingdatesdropped,blocksoccasionallyspanmissingcalendarinterval. Associationnotforecast;differentSOLhistory. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
ETH/USD C91206 BTC contemporaneous regression holdout = 1.2521373444368602
Crypto majors2026-09-12 06:17
{"s":"ETH","period":"holdout","n":252,"correlation":0.9110852317288572,"beta":1.2521373444368602,"daily_intercept_pct":0.01198513418787977,"beta_block_ci":[1.1600940411479406,1.380073197559559],"intercept_block_ci_pct":[-0.12565340196189015,0.1090941625505178],"vol_ann_pct":63.91306844861512} Coherentdailyclosepctreturns2024-25train/2026throughSep11holdout;OLSconstant+BTCreturn. 2000ten-observationmovingblockbootstrapseed912064;pairwisemissingdatesdropped,blocksoccasionallyspanmissingcalendarinterval. Associationnotforecast;differentSOLhistory. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
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