Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
FRO R91300 official precautionary East-West pipeline shutdown = 1
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:05
Sep11 2026 SPA publishes Energy Ministry source: attacks morningSep10 in Riyadh/Medina regions, precautionary shutdown, injuries, technical/emergency inspection underway; updates to follow. Arabic original retrieved via web search; direct HTML is JS shell. Government party to conflict, close to operational decision but not independent flow measurement. No lost bpd, current throughput or repair duration supplied. Sep12 GCC condemnation repeats incident, not second independent physical measurement. https://www.spa.gov.sa/N2674019
EEM Issuer bear-case structure and current publication dates
Core trend2026-09-13 00:05
Retrieved Sep13 00UTC; primary sponsor, not independent valuation opinion. Sep10 exposures IT42.99%,Taiwan27.90%,SouthKorea21.69%,China19.58%; PE19.93,PB2.76. Sep11 close67.84,NAV67.95,discount-.16%,volume21480551,median30dspread.01%; annual expense.72%. Same dated metrics as prior run where comparable; no fresh Saturday equity valuation. Taiwan+Korea49.59%; plusChina69.17%. Conditional IT -20% with everything else flat implies -8.598%ETF/-5.832883 per queued share, not forecast; geographic and sector weights overlap and must not be added. Sponsor earns expense; market-makers may earn spreads, which do not guarantee stop execution. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf
FTK R91208 final FTK remote receipt = 3
Supply chain2026-09-12 08:18
At08:17UTC list_jobs verified236 lastRun08:16:03.106/stdout08:16:41.144, exit0 andEND3/3. FTKlatestSep9 8K/ACDCAug6 10Q/FTKIRtop3 unchanged;9runsleft covers next00UTC research. This supersedes pending08:16 receipt in earlier26492. Index metadata only; no new paid cash assertion. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000928054.json
FRO R91208 reproduction manifest and bar vintage = 62806
Supply chain2026-09-12 08:17
[{"file": "daily_raw.json", "bytes": 201645, "sha256": "14181fab85f6ac677c06a95752b01107e42b2a642f84132d92bbbcf451bded68"}, {"file": "daily_all.json", "bytes": 197436, "sha256": "902d780f8afbeedfef14e4a5016a00c8be5bd6ceecf1d865ac616e47c522f4eb"}, {"file": "intra_raw.json", "bytes": 7275031, "sha256": "a46963ff1b9177391a0ebcf3967e689be2771ed305317417a077e6544c95b7be"}, {"file": "raw_results.json", "bytes": 3561, "sha256": "cd046b582e965b6cb30e9d683c6c53487729428484cc132d96fe27124d2be4aa"}, {"file": "raw_trades.json", "bytes": 75686, "sha256": "179cc499e884f6bed904151d502c55bf8c68156e68a3fc6282b21b5216e5dd89"}, {"file": "stats.json", "bytes": 1639, "sha256": "c52a564d28eb1c488aa8cdca1bd489d23ae20c849c893744e04e630fdcfbd4c1"}, {"file": "calendar.csv", "bytes": 114369, "sha256": "f25db8c047be2b3b067f855272c6369e1e05d1603f203d8dfe9051e4c6cc2c9b"}, {"file": "raw_backtest.py", "bytes": 4157, "sha256": "ca7534f5578d5e5b5ebbd07a909f79e88413a3651fdb04f0961ac7a8448c6433"}, {"file": "intra.py", "bytes": 993, "sha256": "5a56916edc35b83078cf9e703045ec00cdf9f524a308c8642e4892bad4679e57"}]; FRO daily raw/all1682 rows2020Jan2–2026Sep11; intraday62806 rows2021Jan4–Sep11,last23:45UTC. XNYS calendar via exchange_calendars, start2020-01-01/end2026-12-31. RTH samples36959;75 missingexpected. Initially40pagecap failed safely; yearlychunks all completed with uniquetimestamps. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
FRO R91208 due collector receipts = 243
Supply chain2026-09-12 08:16
list_jobs Sep12~08:02:243 actual lastRun07:45:58, stdout07:46:02, exit0, END6/6 and no panelERROR;70runs left.236 actual06:16:02/stdout06:16:22, exit0, END3/3,10runsleft;08:16 not yet observed.18exit0 USDAperiod8/30–9/05;214END10/10actual04:31 output;36lastSep11 13:30hasAI.PA403/MOFCOMtimeout, so exit0 is partialcoverage. All5activejobs cover untilnextSep13 00UTC; no replacement needed. No absence-of-news inference. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev
FRO R91208 raw audit statistics and sizing scenario = 21.27475
Supply chain2026-09-12 08:14
{"bootstrap":[{"period":"2021-01-01","N":31,"mean_pct":1.4456053083571125,"CI95_pct":[-2.3253119842292405,5.654043709063035]},{"period":"2025-01-01","N":16,"mean_pct":3.504449729324182,"CI95_pct":[-1.9328456055288563,9.086704830483828]}],"simulation":[{"scenario":"base","notional":85.099,"paths":20000,"trades":20,"return_P05_P50_P95_pct":[-5.16356208083442,2.551523308669179,11.998601859776908],"DD_P95_pct":7.1411777219829204,"loss_odds_pct":30.314999999999998},{"scenario":"base","notional":21.27475,"paths":20000,"trades":20,"return_P05_P50_P95_pct":[-1.300983314100825,0.6562402314532756,2.907140829030887],"DD_P95_pct":1.8273675837427044,"loss_odds_pct":29.79},{"scenario":"5pct_30pct_gap","notional":85.099,"paths":20000,"trades":20,"return_P05_P50_P95_pct":[-9.528612743241679,-0.5555369439451896,9.534922679679157],"DD_P95_pct":11.267859313172428,"loss_odds_pct":53.47},{"scenario":"5pct_30pct_gap","notional":21.27475,"paths":20000,"trades":20,"return_P05_P50_P95_pct":[-2.442831748072456,-0.10859146279117438,2.339573321147003],"DD_P95_pct":2.9162306843814814,"loss_odds_pct":52.754999999999995}],"entry_reference":49.21,"ADR20":1.3495550000000016,"stop":46.510889999999996,"target":57.30733000000001,"dividend":3.41,"ex_no_move_price":45.8,"ex_price_below_stop":0.7108899999999969,"halfKelly_risk":0.05167042055685128,"full_notional":85.099,"quarter_probe":21.27475,"quarter_stop_risk":1.1668947464438137,"quarter_30pct_gap":6.3824250000000005,"whole_probe":0,"close_above_prior20":true,"SMA50":40.84580000000001}; seed91208; 20000 IID bootstrap/path samples, 20 future trades. Gap occurrence5% and size30% subjective stress, not forecast. Rebalance fractions against account850.99; ignore future allocation changes. Costs already in sampled returns. Current levels are reference not orders. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Five collector receipts and local client recovery = 5
Convex events2026-09-12 08:14
Active192/199/210/230/235 have43/64/77/78/95runsleft andlast exit0;lastactualEND19206:01:26.439,19904:46:11.9168,21004:46:11.8577,23004:16:19.2953,23504:16:06.8564. Job192nextlisted08:01alreadyduebutnewreceiptabsent; notclaimedhealthycurrentrunorfailed. Othersnext08:46/08:46/08:16/12:16. CoveragecadencesextendthroughSep13 00UTCwithoutnewjob. LocalPythonrequestsstock-bars403full+smallprobe;NodebacktestCLIandNodefetch200/926TCOMbars/nopagination. Differentclientrouteworks; no403sprayorchaindependency. MainnewanalysisSIPnotYahoo. Future332checksactualreceipts. convex list_jobs retrieved2026-09-12 08:08UTC ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
BTC/USD C91208 own realized execution sample = -0.08099
Crypto majors2026-09-12 08:13
One closed BTC lot: entry81614.8Sep3 19:42:24.677UTC,exit81548.7Sep3 20:30:20.345UTC,operatorliquidation,notstrategyexit. Qty.001681857;notional137.2644226836;stop73440,target97900,horizon3–4weeks. Grossprice returnapproximately-.08099%; one discretionary forcedexit cannot calibrate stop/target hitrates or strategyKelly. No current crypto holdings/pendingorders, currentcap119.14. query_trades fund=crypto trade10
FRO R91208 raw sampled 2025-01-01 managed=true slip=15 = 59.434910724932855
Supply chain2026-09-12 08:13
{"start":"2025-01-01","end":"2026-09-11","managed":true,"slip":15,"return_pct":59.434910724932855,"drawdown_pct":25.43075272571459,"win_rate":50,"N":16,"open":1,"mean_pct":3.3129028370165625,"avgwin_pct":13.785069284134444,"avgloss_pct":7.159263610101318,"halfKelly_risk":0.12016271985043483,"tainted_trades":0,"exitcounts":{"stop":9,"target":5,"time":2},"samples":10988,"entryprice_last":47.020425}; computed Sep12. Price-only/no dividends. NYSE calendar;1bp fee eachside; 75 missing bars in3 training sessions affect1 entry-day trade; no heldoutmissingbars. Historicaltestperiod previously seen forother rules. Daily raw signals; no best-lookback selection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=split
FRO R91208 raw sampled 2025-01-01 managed=true slip=5 = 64.09808070882342
Supply chain2026-09-12 08:13
{"start":"2025-01-01","end":"2026-09-11","managed":true,"slip":5,"return_pct":64.09808070882342,"drawdown_pct":24.981991819475958,"win_rate":50,"N":16,"open":1,"mean_pct":3.504449729324182,"avgwin_pct":13.982295589089617,"avgloss_pct":6.973396130441252,"halfKelly_risk":0.12531739538029452,"tainted_trades":0,"exitcounts":{"stop":9,"target":5,"time":2},"samples":10988,"entryprice_last":47.073525}; computed Sep12. Price-only/no dividends. NYSE calendar;1bp fee eachside; 75 missing bars in3 training sessions affect1 entry-day trade; no heldoutmissingbars. Historicaltestperiod previously seen forother rules. Daily raw signals; no best-lookback selection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=split
FRO R91208 raw sampled 2025-01-01 managed=false slip=15 = 93.00015997716753
Supply chain2026-09-12 08:13
{"start":"2025-01-01","end":"2026-09-11","managed":false,"slip":15,"return_pct":93.00015997716753,"drawdown_pct":25.43075272571459,"win_rate":50,"N":16,"open":1,"mean_pct":4.637038189933898,"avgwin_pct":16.388461433199947,"avgloss_pct":7.114385053332149,"halfKelly_risk":0.14147265162244366,"tainted_trades":0,"exitcounts":{"stop":8,"target":6,"time":2},"samples":10988,"entryprice_last":47.020425}; computed Sep12. Price-only/no dividends. NYSE calendar;1bp fee eachside; 75 missing bars in3 training sessions affect1 entry-day trade; no heldoutmissingbars. Historicaltestperiod previously seen forother rules. Daily raw signals; no best-lookback selection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=split
FRO R91208 raw sampled 2025-01-01 managed=false slip=5 = 96.90709316645847
Supply chain2026-09-12 08:13
{"start":"2025-01-01","end":"2026-09-11","managed":false,"slip":5,"return_pct":96.90709316645847,"drawdown_pct":24.981991819475937,"win_rate":50,"N":16,"open":1,"mean_pct":4.768437014531476,"avgwin_pct":16.465301755707078,"avgloss_pct":6.9284277266441245,"halfKelly_risk":0.1448026001976756,"tainted_trades":0,"exitcounts":{"stop":8,"target":6,"time":2},"samples":10988,"entryprice_last":47.073525}; computed Sep12. Price-only/no dividends. NYSE calendar;1bp fee eachside; 75 missing bars in3 training sessions affect1 entry-day trade; no heldoutmissingbars. Historicaltestperiod previously seen forother rules. Daily raw signals; no best-lookback selection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=split
FRO R91208 raw sampled 2021-01-01 managed=true slip=15 = 26.678207341194504
Supply chain2026-09-12 08:13
{"start":"2021-01-01","end":"2024-12-31","managed":true,"slip":15,"return_pct":26.678207341194504,"drawdown_pct":27.941831392340188,"win_rate":38.70967741935484,"N":31,"open":0,"mean_pct":1.362267691998602,"avgwin_pct":13.934405028674114,"avgloss_pct":6.5780295732701415,"halfKelly_risk":0.0488814444963864,"tainted_trades":1,"exitcounts":{"stop":21,"target":7,"time":3},"samples":25971,"entryprice_last":null}; computed Sep12. Price-only/no dividends. NYSE calendar;1bp fee eachside; 75 missing bars in3 training sessions affect1 entry-day trade; no heldoutmissingbars. Historicaltestperiod previously seen forother rules. Daily raw signals; no best-lookback selection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=split
FRO R91208 raw sampled 2021-01-01 managed=true slip=5 = 29.93018159060139
Supply chain2026-09-12 08:13
{"start":"2021-01-01","end":"2024-12-31","managed":true,"slip":5,"return_pct":29.93018159060139,"drawdown_pct":28.242574436367708,"win_rate":38.70967741935484,"N":31,"open":0,"mean_pct":1.4456053083571125,"avgwin_pct":13.988712427515082,"avgloss_pct":6.476357082690025,"halfKelly_risk":0.05167042055685128,"tainted_trades":1,"exitcounts":{"stop":21,"target":7,"time":3},"samples":25971,"entryprice_last":null}; computed Sep12. Price-only/no dividends. NYSE calendar;1bp fee eachside; 75 missing bars in3 training sessions affect1 entry-day trade; no heldoutmissingbars. Historicaltestperiod previously seen forother rules. Daily raw signals; no best-lookback selection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=split
FRO R91208 raw sampled 2021-01-01 managed=false slip=15 = 3.1965918812569383
Supply chain2026-09-12 08:13
{"start":"2021-01-01","end":"2024-12-31","managed":false,"slip":15,"return_pct":3.1965918812569383,"drawdown_pct":40.695613815814646,"win_rate":29.03225806451613,"N":31,"open":0,"mean_pct":0.7870663092211597,"avgwin_pct":19.03264368112788,"avgloss_pct":6.677033524740677,"halfKelly_risk":0.020676746814778796,"tainted_trades":1,"exitcounts":{"stop":20,"target":7,"time":4},"samples":25971,"entryprice_last":null}; computed Sep12. Price-only/no dividends. NYSE calendar;1bp fee eachside; 75 missing bars in3 training sessions affect1 entry-day trade; no heldoutmissingbars. Historicaltestperiod previously seen forother rules. Daily raw signals; no best-lookback selection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=split
FRO R91208 raw sampled 2021-01-01 managed=false slip=5 = 23.436294994857533
Supply chain2026-09-12 08:13
{"start":"2021-01-01","end":"2024-12-31","managed":false,"slip":5,"return_pct":23.436294994857533,"drawdown_pct":32.08344160022614,"win_rate":32.25806451612903,"N":31,"open":0,"mean_pct":1.3786687618971745,"avgwin_pct":18.249498130650828,"avgloss_pct":6.655059508937901,"halfKelly_risk":0.03777278564120176,"tainted_trades":1,"exitcounts":{"stop":19,"target":7,"time":5},"samples":25971,"entryprice_last":null}; computed Sep12. Price-only/no dividends. NYSE calendar;1bp fee eachside; 75 missing bars in3 training sessions affect1 entry-day trade; no heldoutmissingbars. Historicaltestperiod previously seen forother rules. Daily raw signals; no best-lookback selection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=split
IBIT C91208 purged ETF training boundary control = -0.026123674607565803
Crypto majors2026-09-12 08:12
RemoveDec31 2025 row so training response cannot crossJan1;N496 vs497,corr-.026123675,positiveflow nextreturnmean.184456816%,nonpositive.186261395%. Known2026 unchanged. Updates2974 trainvalues and resolvesone-session split issue; publicationavailability stillunknown, no trade/backtest. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf
SOL/USD C91208 hypothetical costed range and exit geometry = 142.91938019717904
Crypto majors2026-09-12 08:12
{"s":"SOL","ATR20":5.676981067074999,"last_complete_day":"2026-09-11 00:00:00+00:00","hypothetical_entry":101.8017,"stop":90.44773786585,"partial2R":124.50962426829999,"target_net3R":142.91938019717904,"target_gain_pct":40.38997403499061,"modeled_stop_loss_fraction":0.11685101122665387,"quarter_notional":29.785,"quarter_stop_loss_USD":3.4804073693858855,"full_stop_loss_USD":13.921629477543542,"MFE20_n":213,"MFE20_median_pct":8.897815440488642,"MFE20_P90_pct":23.71503978146556,"MFE20_target_coverage_pct":6.103286384976526,"actual_size":0} ComputedSep12 from completed dailyOHLC reconstructed only24hourdays. 08:03ask+10bpslip hypotheticalE;stopE-2ATR20;25bpfees eachside creditedcoin;10bpsellslip. k=.9975^2*.999/E,risk=1-k*S,T=((1+3*risk)/k-.25*(E+2*(E-S)))/.75. Fullnet3R includes quarterat2R. MFE213 overlapping20daywindows2026 is unconditional high excursion, not executable target odds. SOLquote stale, all actualsizes0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
ETH/USD C91208 hypothetical costed range and exit geometry = 3267.731902343976
Crypto majors2026-09-12 08:12
{"s":"ETH","ATR20":98.98817058315004,"last_complete_day":"2026-09-11 00:00:00+00:00","hypothetical_entry":2526.6240999999995,"stop":2328.6477588336993,"partial2R":2922.5767823326,"target_net3R":3267.731902343976,"target_gain_pct":29.331937518682594,"modeled_stop_loss_fraction":0.08387557333362894,"quarter_notional":29.785,"quarter_stop_loss_USD":2.498233951742138,"full_stop_loss_USD":9.992935806968552,"MFE20_n":213,"MFE20_median_pct":7.1107744590251265,"MFE20_P90_pct":23.87248064917241,"MFE20_target_coverage_pct":8.450704225352112,"actual_size":0} ComputedSep12 from completed dailyOHLC reconstructed only24hourdays. 08:03ask+10bpslip hypotheticalE;stopE-2ATR20;25bpfees eachside creditedcoin;10bpsellslip. k=.9975^2*.999/E,risk=1-k*S,T=((1+3*risk)/k-.25*(E+2*(E-S)))/.75. Fullnet3R includes quarterat2R. MFE213 overlapping20daywindows2026 is unconditional high excursion, not executable target odds. SOLquote stale, all actualsizes0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
BTC/USD C91208 hypothetical costed range and exit geometry = 96073.38072512562
Crypto majors2026-09-12 08:12
{"s":"BTC","ATR20":2437.141232487298,"last_complete_day":"2026-09-11 00:00:00+00:00","hypothetical_entry":77340.627364,"stop":72466.3448990254,"partial2R":87089.1922939492,"target_net3R":96073.38072512562,"target_gain_pct":24.221103447946966,"modeled_stop_loss_fraction":0.06863489373987353,"quarter_notional":29.785,"quarter_stop_loss_USD":2.044290310042133,"full_stop_loss_USD":8.177161240168532,"MFE20_n":213,"MFE20_median_pct":5.8684160071170055,"MFE20_P90_pct":18.769612027084108,"MFE20_target_coverage_pct":8.450704225352112,"actual_size":0} ComputedSep12 from completed dailyOHLC reconstructed only24hourdays. 08:03ask+10bpslip hypotheticalE;stopE-2ATR20;25bpfees eachside creditedcoin;10bpsellslip. k=.9975^2*.999/E,risk=1-k*S,T=((1+3*risk)/k-.25*(E+2*(E-S)))/.75. Fullnet3R includes quarterat2R. MFE213 overlapping20daywindows2026 is unconditional high excursion, not executable target odds. SOLquote stale, all actualsizes0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
TCOM Penalty scale and post-announcement stock comparison = 5.0971153846153845
Convex events2026-09-12 08:12
Nominal5.301bnRMB aggregate imposedfine/confiscation/refund equals5.097115%ofMarch31cash+restricted+investments104bn basket,110.4375%ofQ1adjustedEBITDA4.8bn,212.04%ofQ1netincome2.5bn,32.722222%ofQ1revenue16.2bn. Notallcash,notFCF,notperiodmatchedprovisionorcashpaid. July24SIPclose43.64→July27 44.77=+2.589368%; coincidentwithJuly25weekendannouncement, NOTcausalestimate. CannotinfernewSep15surprisefromknownbadnews. Detaileddecisionattachmentbrowserunsupported/Python403; regulatorlandingbodyrecovered. https://www.samr.gov.cn/xw/zj/art/2026/art_46d2c74cbd7249f189622dd030e3c3a7.html ; https://investors.trip.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tripcom-group-limited-reports-unaudited-first-quarter-2026 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
TLX R91208 FDA carryover decision not found in bounded panel
Supply chain2026-09-12 08:12
Sep12~08:10newsindex still yields conference/BiPASS/otherlinks, no observedPixclaradecision. Apr10original https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ gaveSep11dateonly. Unknownactualdecision, notproofpending, delay,CRLorapproval. FDAcalendarcoverage notexhaustive; no TLX order, otherfundmonitoruntouched. https://telixpharma.com/news-views/
TCOM R91208 Tuesday TCOM date reverified = 15
Supply chain2026-09-12 08:12
IssuerSep2: Sep15AMCresults,20ETcall. No supplyeventedge inferred. https://investors.trip.com/node/15681/pdf
VRA R91208 Tuesday VRA date reverified = 15
Supply chain2026-09-12 08:12
IssuerSep1: Sep15 08ETrelease/08:30ETcall. Inventory and margincontext only; no order. https://investors.verabradley.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vera-bradley-inc-announces-reporting-date-second-quarter-1
PLAY R91208 Monday PLAY date reverified = 14
Supply chain2026-09-12 08:11
IssuerSep1: Sep14AMCresults,17ETcall forAug4quarter. Costs, foodinputs and trafficcontext; no order. https://daveandbusters.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026
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